What is Kyotos future?

More than 190 countries are meeting in Durban, South Africa, for the UN summit on climate change.

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The EU and others are pushing for a compromise deal that could see the Kyoto Protocol extended for a short period before being replaced or complemented by a broader agreement in 2015. However, many observers are increasingly skeptical that a deal can be brokered. Further tensions emerged this week following reports that Canada is planning to pull the plug on its current Kyoto commitments when the Durban summit wraps on Dec. 9.

EXTEND KYOTO
The rst ve years of commitment to the Kyoto Protocol will end in late 2012. Kyoto, which was adopted in 1997 and entered into force in 2005, commits most developed states to binding emissions targets. The talks are the last chance to set another round of targets before the rst commitment period ends in 2012. Several industrialized countries (Japan, Russia and Canada) oppose new commitments without the participation of two major emitters: China and the United States.

EXPAND THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK

The European Union hopes that the Durban Conference will lay the foundation for a roadmap to move towards a binding global framework that could be signed in 2015, and come into force in 2020.

GREEN FUND FINANCING

In Copenhagen, in 2009, industrialized countries committed to raising $100 billion per year by 2020 for poorer countries. It still remains to be discussed how the funds will be distributed. The United States and Saudi Arabia have objected to some aspects of the fund's design. Emissions by sector
(%, 2009)

DEBT CRISIS
The debt crisis hitting the euro zone and the United States makes it unlikely those areas will provide more aid or impose new measures that could hurt their growth prospects.

Change in CO2 emissions by region

6 20

Electricity and heat

41

Residential Industry Transport

23

10

Others

WORLD CO2 EMISSIONS

Top 10 CO2 emitting countries
(Gross tonnes, 2009) Canada 520.7 Germany 750.2 Russia 1,532.6 China 6,877.2 S. Korea 515.5 U.S.A. World: 42% China 28,999 58%

(% change, 2008-2009) World Asia* China Middle East Africa Latin America Others Asia Oceania North America Europe
* Excluding China

-8

-6

-4

-2 % 2

HOTTEST YEARS ON RECORD

This year is set to be the hottest in which there has been a cooling La Nina pattern and the 10th warmest since records began. The World Meteorological Organization says that the 13 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997, thanks to human activity.
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY, C
La Nina event Strong La Nina years are typically 0.10-0.15 celsius cooler than years preceding and following them

0.41
0.51
1998

0.52 0.53

2005

2010

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

11,521.5 0.1 0
-0.1 -0.2 -0.3

U.S.A. 5,195.0

Britain 465.8

Iran 533.2

India 1,585.8

Japan 1,092.9
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Durban, South Africa

Sources: AFP, NOAA, REUTERS, PNUE; RECHERCHE ET INFOGRAPHIE:IDEFR

SUSAN BATSFORD, GRAPHICS EDITOR, TWITTER @SBATS1; QMI AGENCY