Of 20 Bolts There Are (A) Exactly 2 Faulty Bolts

PMT
January 2008
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blank
2. The probability of a bolt being faulty is 0.3. Find the probability that in a random sample
of 20 bolts there are
(a) exactly 2 faulty bolts,

(2)
(b) more than 3 faulty bolts.

(2)
These bolts are sold in bags of 20. John buys 10 bags.
(c) Find the probability that exactly 6 of these bags contain more than 3 faulty bolts.
(3)
n p
___________________________________________________________________________
X B 3
a ___________________________________________________________________________
20,0
___________________________________________________________________________
P z
___________________________________________________________________________
0.02782
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P x 3 I P XE3
b ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
I 0.1071 0.8929
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Y B 10 0.8929
c ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P
4 6 0.0140
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
4
*N29278A0428*
PMT
January 2008
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5. Dhriti grows tomatoes. Over a period of time, she has found that there is a probability 0.3
of a ripe tomato having a diameter greater than 4 cm. She decides to try a new fertiliser. In
a random sample of 40 ripe tomatoes, 18 have a diameter greater than 4 cm. Dhriti claims
that the new fertiliser has increased the probability of a ripe tomato being greater than
4 cm in diameter.
Test Dhriti’s claim at the 5% level of significance. State your hypotheses clearly.
n (7)
p
X B
40 0.3
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Ho 0.3
___________________________________________________________________________
p
___________________________________________________________________________
It 0.3
___________________________________________________________________________
p
___________________________________________________________________________
where p is probability ripe tomato has diameter
___________________________________________________________________________
a
than 4cm
___________________________________________________________________________
greater
F x12
___________________________________________________________________________
n
p
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 18 I Xen P
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
I 0.9680
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
0.0320 5
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Ho and acceptIt
Reject
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
There is sufficientevidence to the

___________________________________________________________________________
support
___________________________________________________________________________
view that the new fertilizer

has increased
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
the probability a tomato will have a

ripe
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
diameter greater than 4cm

___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
14
*N29278A01428*
PMT
January 2008
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6. The probability that a sunflower plant grows over 1.5 metres high is 0.25. A random
sample of 40 sunflower plants is taken and each sunflower plant is measured and its height
recorded.
(a) Find the probability that the number of sunflower plants over 1.5 m high is between
8 and 13 (inclusive) using
(i) a Poisson approximation, use Binomial instead of Poisson
(ii) a Normal approximation.

(10)
(b) Write down which of the approximations used in part (a) is the most accurate estimate
of the probability. You must give a reason for your answer. Omit part b
(2)
n p
___________________________________________________________________________
X B 40 0.25
a___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
D
___________________________________________________________________________
p 8 EXE B P Xers XE7
___________________________________________________________________________ P
___________________________________________________________________________
0.8967
___________________________________________________________________________
0.1819
___________________________________________________________________________
0.7148
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
E x 10 Var x
ii___________________________________________________________________________
rip npg
___________________________________________________________________________
7.5
___________________________________________________________________________
h g
___________________________________________________________________________
Approx with 7
N 10,1752
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P 8 EXE 13 5 PG 13.5EYE
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
0.7187
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
16
*N29278A01628*
PMT
June 2008
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2. In a large college 58% of students are female and 42% are male. A random sample of 100
students is chosen from the college. Using a suitable approximation find the probability
that more than half the sample are female.
(7)
n p
X B100 0.58 E X 58
___________________________________________________________________________
np
___________________________________________________________________________
x Var 58 0.42
___________________________________________________________________________
npq
24.36
___________________________________________________________________________
Approximate with
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Y N 24.362
58,1
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 351 P 7350.5
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Bycalc 0.9357
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
6
*H32581A0628*
PMT
June 2008
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5. Sue throws a fair coin 15 times and records the number of times it shows a head.
(a) State the distribution to model the number of times the coin shows a head.
(2)
Find the probability that Sue records
(b) exactly 8 heads,

(2)
(c) at least 4 heads.

(2)
Sue has a different coin which she believes is biased in favour of heads. She throws the
coin 15 times and obtains 13 heads.
(d) Test Sue’s belief at the 1% level of significance. State your hypotheses clearly.
(6)
X Blish o s
a ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 8 0.1964
b ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 4 I P X E3
c ___________________________________________________________________________
I 0.0176
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
0.9824
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
d ___________________________________________________________________________
X B 15 0.5
___________________________________________________________________________
Ho p E of a head
___________________________________________________________________________
p prob obtaining
H
___________________________________________________________________________
p z
___________________________________________________________________________
P
X 313 l Xen P
___________________________________________________________________________
I 0.9963
___________________________________________________________________________
0.0037 s
___________________________________________________________________________ 1
___________________________________________________________________________
Reject Ho and accept It

___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
There is sufficient evidence to suggest
the coin
___________________________________________________________________________
is biased in favour of heads
___________________________________________________________________________
14
*H32581A01428*
PMT
January 2009
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3. A single observation x is to be taken from a Binomial distribution B(20, p).
This observation is used to test H0 : p = 0.3 against H1 : p ≠ 0.3
(a) Using a 5% level of significance, find the critical region for this test.
The probability of rejecting either tail should be as close as possible to 2.5%.
(3)
(b) State the actual significance level of this test.

(2)
The actual value of x obtained is 3.
(c) State a conclusion that can be drawn based on this value giving a reason for your
answer.
(2)
___________________________________________________________________________
X B 20 0.3
a ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P
X El 0.0076
___________________________________________________________________________
P XI 2 closest to
0.0354
___________________________________________________________________________
22
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 10 l P xEa
___________________________________________________________________________
I 0.952
___________________________________________________________________________
0.048
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 211 l P Xero
___________________________________________________________________________
I 0.9829 0.0171 closest to 24
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Critical 0
___________________________________________________________________________
Region 1,2 11,12 13,14 15,16 12,18 19,20
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Actual significance level
b ___________________________________________________________________________
0.03541 0.0171
___________________________________________________________________________
0.0525
___________________________________________________________________________ 5.25
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
3 is not in critical region

c ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Insufficient evidence to reject Ho Accept

___________________________________________________________________________
p 0.3
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
8
*N30996A0824*
PMT
January 2009
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5. A factory produces components of which 1% are defective. The components are packed
in boxes of 10. A box is selected at random.
(a) Find the probability that the box contains exactly one defective component.
(2)
(b) Find the probability that there are at least 2 defective components in the box.
(3)
(c) Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that a batch of 250 components
contains between 1 and 4 (inclusive) defective components.
(4)
X B10 0.01
a ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P X L 0.0914
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 32 I P Xel
b ___________________________________________________________________________
l 0.9957
___________________________________________________________________________
0.0043
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Needs Poisson Distribution so omit
c ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Can do with binomial distribution on calculator
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
X B 250 0.01
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P 1 EX Ea P X P Keo
Eq
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
0.8922 0.0811
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
0 8111
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
14
*N30996A01424*
PMT
June 2009
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PMT
June 2009
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a eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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11 in critical region Reject Ho and accept It
Sufficient evidence to suggest proportion ofpeople

buying 1 tin has changed from 30

H
!"#$%&'('&%$!
PMT
January 2010
Leave
blank
1. A manufacturer supplies DVD players to retailers in batches of 20. It has 5% of the players
returned because they are faulty.
(a) Write down a suitable model for the distribution of the number of faulty DVD players
in a batch.
(2)
Find the probability that a batch contains
(b) no faulty DVD players,

(2)
(c) more than 4 faulty DVD players.

(2)
(d) Find the mean and variance of the number of faulty DVD players in a batch.
(2)
X B 20,0
a ___________________________________________________________________________
05
___________________________________________________________________________
p X o
b ___________________________________________________________________________
0.95 0.3585
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 4 I P XE4 0.9974 0.0026
c ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
E x 20 0.05 1
d ___________________________________________________________________________
up
___________________________________________________________________________
Var X 20 0.05 0.95
___________________________________________________________________________
npq 0.95
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
2
*N35712A0224*
PMT
January 2010
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blank
6. (a) Define the critical region of a test statistic.
(2)
A discrete random variable X has a Binomial distribution B(30, p). A single observation is
used to test H0 : p = 0.3 against H1 : p ≠ 0.3
(b) Using a 1% level of significance find the critical region of this test. You should state
the probability of rejection in each tail which should be as close as possible to 0.005
(5)
(c) Write down the actual significance level of the test.

(1)
The value of the observation was found to be 15.
(d) Comment on this finding in light of your critical region.

(2)
___________________________________________________________________________
Set of values of a test statistic
a___________________________________________________________________________
for which null hypothesis is rejected
___________________________________________________________________________
in
favour of alternative
___________________________________________________________________________
hypothesis
___________________________________________________________________________
b ___________________________________________________________________________
X B 390.3
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P XE2 0.0021 closest to 0.005
___________________________________________________________________________
PX E3 0.0093
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P
x 16 I PCxEis
___________________________________________________________________________
l 0.9936 0.0064 to closest
___________________________________________________________________________
0.005
P x n I PCXEIG
___________________________________________________________________________
l 0.9978 0.0022
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Critical Region XE2 w x 316
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Actual Significance Level
c___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
0.0021 t 0.0064 0.0085
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
d___________________________________________________________________________
15 not in critical region Accept Ho p o 3
___________________________________________________________________________
20
*N35712A02024*
PMT
June 2010
Leave
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2. Bhim and Joe play each other at badminton and for each game, independently of all others,
the probability that Bhim loses is 0.2
Find the probability that, in 9 games, Bhim loses
(a) exactly 3 of the games,

(3)
(b) fewer than half of the games.

(2)
Bhim attends coaching sessions for 2 months. After completing the coaching, the
probability that he loses each game, independently of all others, is 0.05
Bhim and Joe agree to play a further 60 games.
(c) Calculate the mean and variance for the number of these 60 games that Bhim loses.
(2)
(d) Using a suitable approximation calculate the probability that Bhim loses more than 4
games.
(3)
X B 90.2
a ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P X 3 0.1762
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P XIA
b ___________________________________________________________________________
0.9804
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
X B 690.05 E x 3
c ___________________________________________________________________________
np
___________________________________________________________________________
Va 3 0.95
___________________________________________________________________________
x npq
___________________________________________________________________________
2.85
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Needs Poisson so omit
d___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
4
*H35396A0424*
PMT
June 2010
Leave
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6. A company claims that a quarter of the bolts sent to them are faulty. To test this claim the
number of faulty bolts in a random sample of 50 is recorded.
(a) Give two reasons why a binomial distribution may be a suitable model for the number
of faulty bolts in the sample.
(2)
(b) Using a 5% significance level, find the critical region for a two-tailed test of the
hypothesis that the probability of a bolt being faulty is 1 . The probability of rejection
4
in either tail should be as close as possible to 0.025
(3)
(c) Find the actual significance level of this test.

(2)
In the sample of 50 the actual number of faulty bolts was 8.
(d) Comment on the company’s claim in the light of this value. Justify your answer.
(2)
The machine making the bolts was reset and another sample of 50 bolts was taken.
Only 5 were found to be faulty.
(e) Test at the 1% level of significance whether or not the probability of a faulty bolt has
decreased. State your hypotheses clearly.
(6)
___________________________________________________________________________
a ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
B 50 0.25
b ___________________________________________________________________________
X
___________________________________________________________________________
P KEG 0.0193 closest to 2E
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P XE7 0.0452
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P
x la l P XE 18
___________________________________________________________________________
I O 9712 0.0288 closest to 24
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P
X 320 l XE 19 PL
___________________________________________________________________________
I 0.986 O 014
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Critical Region XE 6 w x 719
___________________________________________________________________________
16
*H35396A01624*
PMT
June 2010
Leave
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Question 6 continued
___________________________________________________________________________
Actual significance level 0.0193 t 0.0288
c___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
0.0481
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
4.81
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
8 not in critical region

d___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Accept Ho Evidence to 25 of
___________________________________________________________________________
suggest
bolts are
___________________________________________________________________________
faulty
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
X B 50 0.25
e ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Ho p 0.25 prob bolt faulty

is
___________________________________________________________________________
p
H i p 0.25
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
P X E5 0.007046 1
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
Reject Ho and accept H

___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
There is evidence to that the

___________________________________________________________________________
suggest
___________________________________________________________________________
probability of a bolt being faulty is now

___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
less than 25
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
17
*H35396A01724* Turn over

Of 20 Bolts There Are (A) Exactly 2 Faulty Bolts

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Of 20 Bolts There Are (A) Exactly 2 Faulty Bolts

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PMT

(a) exactly 2 faulty bolts,

(b) more than 3 faulty bolts.

These bolts are sold in bags of 20. John buys 10 bags.

There is sufficientevidence to the

view that the new fertilizer

the probability a tomato will have a

diameter greater than 4cm

(i) a Poisson approximation, use Binomial instead of Poisson

(ii) a Normal approximation.

Find the probability that Sue records

(b) exactly 8 heads,

(c) at least 4 heads.

Reject Ho and accept It

This observation is used to test H0 : p = 0.3 against H1 : p ≠ 0.3

(b) State the actual significance level of this test.

The actual value of x obtained is 3.

3 is not in critical region

Insufficient evidence to reject Ho Accept

Actual Significance Level 0.03541 0.048 0.0834

Sufficient evidence to suggest proportion ofpeople

buying 1 tin has changed from 30

Find the probability that a batch contains

(b) no faulty DVD players,

(c) more than 4 faulty DVD players.

(c) Write down the actual significance level of the test.

The value of the observation was found to be 15.

(d) Comment on this finding in light of your critical region.

Find the probability that, in 9 games, Bhim loses

(a) exactly 3 of the games,

(b) fewer than half of the games.

Bhim and Joe agree to play a further 60 games.

(c) Find the actual significance level of this test.

In the sample of 50 the actual number of faulty bolts was 8.

8 not in critical region

Ho p 0.25 prob bolt faulty

Reject Ho and accept H

There is evidence to that the

probability of a bolt being faulty is now

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