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12th Statistics Chapter 7 Study Material TM 219488
12th Statistics Chapter 7 Study Material TM 219488
in
ேம கா தர க வைரபட வைரக
எ கா 7.2
எ கா 7.3
ெதாட ச யன 7 ஆ கண ெக ப இ த ய ம க ெதாைக ேழ
ெகா க ப ள . அ வ வர க அைர சராசரி ைறைய பய ப த
ேபா மத க கா க.
கண ெக ஆ 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
ம க ெதாைக (இல ச களி ) 301.2 336.9 412.0 484.1 558.6 624.1 721.4
எ கா 7.4
அைரசராசரி ைறைய பய ப த ப வ வ வர க ேபா மத க கா க.
வ ட 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972
ெவ உபத 7.4 10.8 9.2 10.5 15.5 13.7 16.7 15
(ட னி )
அைரசராசரி ைற ப ேபா மத க
வ ட ெவ அைர ப த ய
ெமா த
அைர சராசரி ேபா மத க
உ ப த (ட னி
1965 7.4 7.315
1966 10.8 8.755
37.9 9.475
1967 9.2 10.195
1968 10.5 11.635
1969 15.5 13.075
1970 13.7 14.515
60.9 15.225
1971 16.7 15.955
1972 15 17.395
வ ட 3-year
moving
average
2004-05
41.82 - -
2005 -06
40.05 120.99 40.33
2006-07
39.12 103.89 34.63
2007-08
24.72 90.53 30.18
2008-09
26.69 111.07 37.02
2009-10
59.66 110 36.67
2010-11
23.65 111.67 37.22
2011-12
28.36 85.32 28.44
2012-13
33.31 93.27 31.09
2013-14
31.60 101.39 33.80
2014-15
36.48 - -
.
வ ட
1998 154.0
-
1999 140.5
590.0
2000 147.0 1168.9 146.11
578.9
2001 148.5 1159.4 144.93
580.5
2002 142.9 1150.6 143.83
570.1
2003 142.1 1134.4 141.8
564.3
2004 136.6 1131.4 141.43
567.1
2005 142.7 1137.2 142.15
570.1
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A=2
X= X - U=X- U2 uy
2010 A
∑y 987
a= = = 197.4
n 5
∑Uy 162
b= = = 16.2
∑U2 10
y = 197.4 + 16.2 (X – 2)
= 197.4 + 16.2 X – 32.4
= 16.2 X + 165
X = 0, y = 165 + 0 = 165
X = 1, y = 165 + 16.2 = 181.2
X = 2, y = 165 + 32.4 = 197.4
X = 3, y = 165 + 48.6 = 213.6
X = 4, y = 165 + 64.8 = 229.8
A = 2005
X= X -2010 U = 2X - 5 U2 uy
2005 12 0 -5 25 -60
2006 13 1 -3 9 -39
2007 18 2 -1 1 -18
2008 20 3 1 1 20
2009 24 4 3 9 72
2010 28 5 5 25 140
∑y = 115 ∑U = 0 ∑U2=70 ∑Uy = 115
∑y 115
a= = = 19.17
n 6
∑Uy 115
b= = = 1.64
∑U2 70
y = 19.17 + 1.64(2X – 5)
= 19.17 + 3.28 X – 8.2
= 3.28 X + 10.97
X = 0, y = 10.97 + 0 = 10.97
X = 1, y = 10.97 + 3.28 = 14.25
X = 2, y = 10.97 + 6.56 = 17.53
X = 3, y = 10.97 + 9.84 = 20.81
X = 4, y = 10.97 + 13.12 = 24.09
X = 5, y = 10.97 + 16.4 = 27.37
I II III IV
2001 118.4 260.0 379.4 70
69 118 203
ேபா க ைன அளவ
18. ைறகைள ெபயரி க.
வ ைட
19. ஒ க ற மா பா க ற ச ற வைரக.
வ ைட
நைட ைறய ழ மா பா க அ ல ப வகால மா பா க அ ல
டகால ேபா க த ைம காரணமாக இ க இயலாத க ஒ க ற
மா பா க என வைக ப த பட ள .
ேப ட சனி ப , “கால ெதாட வரிைசய ஒ கற
மா பா களான ேபா , ழ ம ப வ காலமா பா ஏ பட இயலாத
அசாதாரண (அரிய) ந ைலய ந க வதா ”
20. ப வகால ற க காண பய ப த ப ைறகைள ற ப க?
வ ைட
நக சராசரி ைறய
21. ைறக யாைவ ?
வ ைட
நக
29. சராசரி ைறய ந ைறகைள எ க.
வ ைட:
30.ழ மா பா க எ றா எ ன ?
வ ைட:
ப வகால மா பா க எ றா எ ன?
31.
வ ைட:
ந தர ம
32. டகால கணி க யாைவ ?
வ ைட:
இ ஏ மத ெச ய ப ட அல களி எ ணி ைக வ வர ேழ
35. 1990-97
12 13 13 16 19 23 21 23
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
1992 21 22.44
1993 23 69 23 23.00
1994 25 23.56
1995 23 24.12
1996 26 74 24.67 24.68
1997 25 25.24
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
2003-04
1320 - -
2004 -05
909 3326 1108.67
2005-06
1097 2695 898.3
2006-07
689 3172 1057.33
2007-08
1386 3138 1046
2008-09
1063 3284 1094.67
2009-10
835 - -
Solving these two equations we get the vales for a and b and the fit of the
trend equation (line of best):
y = a + bx (7.3)
The number of time units may be even or odd, depending upon this, we
follow the method of calculating trend values using least square method.
Merits
The method of least squares completely eliminates personal bias.
Trend values for all the given time periods can be obtained
This method enables us to forecast future values.
Demerits
The calculations for this method are difficult compared to the other
methods.
Addition of new observations requires recalculations.
It ignores cyclical, seasonal and irregular fluctuations.
The trend can be estimated only for immediate future and not for distant
future
41.The following data states the number of ATM centers during 1995 to2001.
Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
42. From the following data estimate the trend values using semi averages
method
Years 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Consumption of cotton (Thousands 677 696 747 755 766 777 785 836
of Bales)
Solution:
Trend values using semi averages method
Year Production of 4 – year semi 4 – year Semi Trend
bleaching powder total - average
2003 677 2875 718.75 69.66
2004 696 709.72
2005 747 727.78
Yield(kg/hectar 1626 173 153 172 165 171 1756 1860 1909 1798
e)
4 5 7 2 5
Solution:
6622
2002-03 1535 13270 1658.75
6648
2003-04 1727 13277 1659.625
6629
2004-05 1652 13479 1684.875
6850
2005-06 1715 13833 1729.125
6983
2006-07 1756 14223 1777.875
7240
2007-08 1860 14563 1820.375
7323
2008-09 1909
2009-10 1798
44. Estimate the value of production for the year 1995 by using the method of
least squares from the following data.
Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Production(1000s 70 72 88 90 92
tons)
Solution:
Year Production X= X -199 U=X-A U2 uy
(1000s tons)
1990 70 0 -2 4 -140
1991 72 1 -1 1 -72
1992 88 2 0 0 0
1993 90 3 1 1 90
1994 92 4 2 4 184
∑y = 412 ∑U = 0 ∑U2=10 ∑Uy = 62
Solution:
No of telephones X= X -1990 U = 2X - 5 U2 uy
(in ’00 s) (y)
Year
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1990 20 0 -5 25 -100
1991 21 1 -3 9 -63
1992 23 2 -1 1 -23
1993 25 3 1 1 25
1994 27 4 3 9 81
1995 29 5 5 25 145
2
∑y = 145 ∑U = 0 ∑U =70 ∑Uy = 65
1995 12 0 -3 9 -36
1996 13 1 -2 4 -26
1997 13 2 -1 1 -13
1998 16 3 0 0 0
1999 16 4 1 1 16
2000 19 5 2 4 38
2001 23 6 3 9 69
∑y = 112 ∑U = 0 ∑U2=28 ∑Uy = 48
47. Calculate seasonal indices for the rainfall data of Tamil Nadu by using simple
average method.
I II III IV
Quarter
Year
2000-01 314.5 335.6 16.8 118.4
2001-02 260.0 379.4 70.0 85.8
2002-03 185.4 407.1 8.7 129.8
2003-04 336.5 403.1 12.0 283.4
2004-05 360.7 472.1 14.3 231.7
Solution:
Quarter I II III IV
Year
2000-01 314.5 335.6 16.8 118.4
2001-02 260.0 379.4 70.0 85.8
2002-03 185.4 407.1 8.7 129.8
2003-04 336.5 403.1 12.0 283.4
2004-05 360.7 472.1 14.3 231.7
291.42
Seasonal index I = x 100 = 132
221.265
399.46
Seasonal index II = x 100 = 181
221.265
214.36
Seasonal index III = x 100 = 11
221.265
169.82
Seasonal index IV = x 100 = 77
221.265
48. Find seasonal Indices for the rainfall data in Tamil Nadu (in mm)
Solution:
Year I II III IV
Season
2009 38.2 166.8 612.6 72.2
2010 38.5 250.9 773.1 153.1
2011 55 277.7 717.8 65.8
2012 50.5 197 706.1 101.1
Seasonal Total 182.2 892.4 2809.6 392.2
Seasonal 45.55 223.1 702.4 98.05
Average
Seasonal Index 17 83 263 37
Seasonal Average
Total average = =
4
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45.55+223.1+702.4+98.05
4
1069.10
= = 267.28
4
Seasonal Average
Seasonal index = x 100
Total average
45.55
Seasonal index I = x 100 = 17.04 = 17
267.28
223.1
Seasonal index II = x 100 = 83.47 = 83
267.28
702.4
Seasonal index III = x 100 = 262.80 = 263
267.28
98.05
Seasonal index IV = x 100 = 36.69 = 37
267.28
49. The following table gives quarterly expenditure over a number of years.
Obtain seasonal correction for the data .
Solution:
Year I II III IV
Season
2000 78 62 56 71
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2001 84 64 61 82
2002 92 70 63 83
2003 100 81 72 96
Seasonl Total 354 277 252 332
Seasonal 88.5 69.25 63 83
Average
Seasonal Index 117 91 83 109
Solution:
2008+2009 2004+2005
Difference between the years = ( )–( ) = 2008.5 – 2004.5
2 2
=4
Difference between the semi-averages = 105.5 – 85.5 = 20
20
Increase in trend = =5
4
The trend value for 2003 = 118 – 5 = 113
The trend value for 2004 = 113 – 5 = 108
The trend value for 2005 = 108 – 5 = 103
The trend value for 2006 = 103 – 5 = 98
The trend value for 2007 = 98 – 5 = 93
The trend value for 2008 = 93 – 5 = 88
The trend value for 2005 = 88 – 5 = 83
The trend value for 2006 = 83 – 5 = 78