ADAS and autonomous

driving market trends

to 2030
Webinar | November 24, 2021

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 1
We are looking forward to our discussion today

Dr. Wolfgang Manuel

Bernhart Yoon
Senior Partner Principal
Stuttgart Frankfurt
Email: wolfgang.bernhart@rolandberger.com Email: manuel.yoon@rolandberger.com
Mobile: +49 160 744 7421 Mobile: +49 160 744 6174

Source: Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 2

When talking about ADAS and AD, all vehicle types can be equipped with
the according technology and address customer-specific use cases
Private autonomous cars Robotaxis (city center & rural area) Regional & long-haul bus

Moving Privately-owned cars with AD functionality Vehicles may be regular cars or pods, in Mass transport and people mover,
as additional equipment urban city centers or rural areas potentially part of public transport
people

Moving Transporters for package distribution used 24 h/7 operation of trucks which deliver Curb-side road delivery of small packages/
to deliver packages to end customer goods aiming for dock-to-dock use case products
goods

LCVs/ last-mile road Autonomous long-haul trucks Delivery robots & drones

Source: Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 3

A. ADAS development 2020-2025
Legislation combined with safety ratings are main drivers of ADAS systems
uptake besides customer pull for convenience
Overview of global safety legislation and ratings for passenger cars

Legislation ADAS systems penetration Safety ratings

> AEB car-to-car > AEB/ AES

> Reversing detection pedestrian, cyclist

> Lane keeping > AEB JA car-to-car,

PTW
> Intelligent speed assists
> Lane support
> AEB car-to-pedestrian system PTW
> AEB car-to-cyclist > AEB head-on
> Advanced driver > Driver monitoring
distraction warning
> V2X
>…
>…

Source: Desk research, Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 5

EU NCAP sets a specific roadmap for testing of safety until 2025 – Most
AEB requirements can only be fulfilled with a front camera
EU NCAP roadmap 2018-2025
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 > New AEB
Roadmap 2020
features
require higher
AEB VRU cyclist
performance of
Far-side protection systems and
Mobile progressive deformable barrier may only be
Roadmap 2025 – Safety rating achieved with a
Driver monitoring
front camera
and/ or fusion
AEB VRU pedestrian – Back-over
of camera and
AEB – Junction & Crossing radar
AEB – Head-on > Initial NCAP
Automatic emergency steering 2022-2024
V2X timetable has
Whiplash/Rear-end crash protection been delayed
Revised subsystem for pedestrian & cyclist by one year to
2023-2025
Rescue, extrication and safety
Child presence detection
Roadmap 2025 – AD
Grading of AD functions
Communication only Proposal to release updates out of
based on first ideas phase with overall rating

Start Protocol release Implementation

Source: Xilinx, Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 6
For the next years, L2/L2+ features are becoming most important for ADAS
commercialization as L3 legislation is delayed and costs are higher
Definition of levels of autonomy
ADAS AD
De-emphasis of L3 in favor L5. Full
of L2+ expected L4. High automation
L3. Conditional automation
L2+. Combined automation
z..z..z

L2. Partial partial autom.

L1. Driver automation
L0. Warning assistance
information > Fully autonomous
> Fully automated
> Highway pilot with driving in some
> Advanced cruise automatic lane situations without
> Cruise control control (adaptive changes (no human need for human as
> Automatic emer- (adaptive cruise cruise control with inter-action from fallback (chauffeur
> Blind spot detector gency braking control with lane lane change assist exit to exit and full mode)
> Lane departure > Adaptive cruise keep assist in in parallel) monitoring of
warning control parallel) environment)
> Lane keep assist

Use case Consumer vehicles Robotaxi + Consumer vehicles

Legal Regulation clear – Driver obligation Legislation delayed

Market Current focus of commercialization (Compliance + NCAP rating) → Reasonable cost Niche, 2025+ Mobility cases → Higher costs acceptable

Source: SAE Int., J3016; fka; Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 7

In the next five years, it is expected that both L2/L2+ market penetration
will increase whereas no autonomy/L0 are likely to shrink
Market penetration rates per level of autonomy, light-duty vehicles [m of vehicles, %]

+1.6%
106
97 2% ADAS L4
5%
89 1% ADAS L3
8% ADAS L2+/++
5% 24%
ADAS L2
19%
ADAS L1
34%
ADAS L0
29% No ADAS

46%

44%
29%

25%
15% 11%

2019 2025 2030

Source: Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 8

ADAS/ AD features require a range of sensors of which especially cameras
and radars will see a strong volume increase in the coming years
Overview of automotive sensors in vehicle Illustrative

Corner
radar Surround Corner
view camera radar
Front
camera
LIDAR
ADAS DCU Parking
Front camera
radar Ultrasonic

Surround Corner
Corner view camera radar
radar
Night Driver
vision monitoring

Source: Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 9

 B. Medium-term
ADAS development 2025-2030
Post-2025, ADAS E/E architectures will become more centralized enabling
driving and parking features from a central ADAS DCU
Decentralized vs. centralized ADAS DCU architectures Illustrative

Decentralized architecture (today) Centralized architecture with ADAS DCU (future)

> Smart sensors with > Satellite sensors with

independent ECUs transmission of
Network
Front camera
and isolated ADAS DCU Front camera
sensor data to
USS ECU
Parking
(smart)
SoC functionality SoCs
(satellite) centralized ADAS
cameras ECU
> Higher practicality for DCU, which
lower levels of ADAS computes centrally
and volume/ budget for driving and
models parking
> Best suited to higher
levels of autonomy
with more complex
functionalities

2025: c.70% of new vehicle sales 2025: c.30% of new vehicle sales
Ultrasonic sensor Radar Parking camera

Source: Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 11

Since L3 regulation is delayed/ unclear, industry focus shifts towards
advanced L2+/++ systems with driver liability
Rationale for the introduction of L2+
Background/
motivation Level 2 Level 2+/++ Level 3
> L3 requires OEMs Eyes off possible, but
to be liable for the Temporary hands off driver has to resume
Temporary hands off
system even if the control at system request
driver is required to
rapidly take over "L3-like" functionality
> L2+ solves the A. lane
Features
issues of unclear/ ACC+ TJA … HWA … HWP AES …
change
delayed L3
regulation as
drivers have to act "L2-like" liability
as fallback-ready Liability
users Driver is responsible Driver is responsible
OEM is liable

L2+/++ systems offer "L3-like" functionality, but as in L2 systems the driver is liable, not the OEM as in L3
However, a clear standard or industry-agreed definition of L2+/++ does not exist

Source: Desk research; SAE; Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 12

Ford, GM and Tesla have started to sell their hands-off ADAS solutions as
subscription models
Selected OEM ADAS OTA offerings
"BlueCruise"
Availability 2021 Ford F-150 & Mustang Mach-E that
are equipped with Co-Pilot360
Sensors Front camera, radars, DMS
ODD Hands-free on 100,000 miles of approved
highways in North America
Pricing > USD 1,595 (F-150) to 3,200 (Mach-E)
upfront (dep. on trim)
> Thereof, USD 600 for the first three
years of service for the BlueCruise
software
> After that, continued use of the
technology will require a subscription
Source: Desktop research; Roland Berger
"Super Cruise"
Launched with 2018 Cadillac CT6, now
also 2021s CT4, CT5, Escalade
Front camera, radars, DMS,
ultrasonic sensors
Hands-free on 200,000 miles of approved
highways in North America
> USD ~2,500 upfront for HW (depending
on model/trim)
> After three-year free trial period,
subscription will cost USD 25 per month
(standalone basis)
> Alternatively, it can be added to certain
OnStar plans or bundles for USD 15 per
month
"Autopilot/ FSD"
AP v7 launched 2015, FSD v9 launched
H2/2021 – All models
8 cameras (360°), no radar, DMS
Any major highway (FSD currently allows
limited use on city streets in certain
situations)
> USD 10,000 for hardware and lifetime
FSD software updates
> Introduction of subscription model ~200
USD per month
20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 13
With more hands-off scenarios in L2+/++ systems, the importance of driver
monitoring systems increases
GM and Tesla driver monitoring systems

Tesla Autopilot loses to GM Super Cruise due to Tesla starts using in-car camera
lack of driver monitoring in industry-wide test for Autopilot driver monitoring
electrek.co (October 28, 2020) TheVerge.com (May 27, 2021)

Source: Electrek; Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 14

 C. Long-term
ADAS/ AD development 2030+
In the future, zonal architectures lead to consolidation and commoditization
of hardware by 2030, OEMs expected to move with different speed
E/E architecture roadmap

Distributed: Established Domain-centralized Zonal in volume ~2030+

in volume ~2025+

Single SW platform, full HW abstraction

> Bundling of functions into safety-critical and non-safety-critical

partitions
Central vehicle > Redundant central vehicle computer for safety-critical tasks
computer(s)
> 2-4 (geographic) zones non-safety-critical tasks,
> Full consolidation and commoditization of SoC based computing
Domain-independent
hardware starting in 2026 at volume in 2030, reducing Tier-1 value share
geographic zone controllers > Car treated like a data center with complete hardware abstraction
Gateway DCU ECU Central computer Zonal computer Sensors/ Actuator
Source: Huawei, Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 16
Combining new mobility concepts with automated driving, robocabs could
provide a cheap and convenient alternative to owning a car
Cost per mile of a personally owned vehicle 2020 [USD]
> Adjusted for
inflation, the cost to
own and operate a
personal car has
1.70 not changed since
the Model T rolled
off the first
assembly line
0.70 0.70 0.70 > ARK estimates
that, at scale,
autonomous taxis
will cost consumers
USD 0.25 per mile,
spurring
0.25 widespread
adoption
1871 1934 1950 2016 20251)

1) Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon

Note: ARK had estimated previously that an autonomous taxi could price at USD 0.35 per mile. We have refined our estimates and believe that aoutonomous taxis could be even cheapter at only USD 0.25 per mile

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2020; Morton Salt Company Records; American Automobile Association (AAA) 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 17
AD players have launched first robotaxi services and target autonomy by
mid of the decade
Autonomous vehicle announcements Selection – Not exhaustive

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Global 2022: Robotaxi service 2025: Consumer-grade

launch in Israel, France autonomy
2020: Driverless service
launched in in Phoenix
2021: First Permit for Autonomous
Trips with Passengers
2021: "FSD Beta v9" (L2+)

2020: Reveal of prototype

2021: Robotaxi service 2023: 3 m users with a

China launch in Beijing fleet of 3,000 robotaxis
2019: Ride-sharing
program launch in US
2020: Autonomous 2024: L4 autonomous
Trucks Freight Network launch trucks
2021: Supervised L4 2024: L4 autonomous
autonomous trucks trucks

Source: Desk research; Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 18

Significant differences between countries with regards to legal frame for AV
commercialization – USA, UK, Germany and Singapore most advanced
Approval process for L4 & L5 (Jan 2021)1)
France
Government with
right to adapt rules
of highway code to
AV development
Germany Russia
Allows level 4 Testing of AVs postponed
autonomous driving to 2021, concept for road
on public roads for safety with AVs approved by
defined use cases3) government in March '20

UK
AV and EV legislation Japan
USA enacted for three year Aims to allow level 4 autonomous
NHTSA2) released period in Jul '18 driving at 40 areas by 2025
new federal guidelines
for ADS3) in Sept '20
China
National standards for "Automotive Driving
Automation Classification" implemented on Jan 1,
2021

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Singapore

Highest limitation for Basic regulatory Regulation for concrete Regulation for concrete No limitation for type National 2020 budget included SGD
type approval: Initial scene for type approval type approval process in type approval process in approval 6 m to support AV testbeds
discussions ongoing set progress decision phase

1) Germany Status Jul 2021 2) National Highway and Transportation Safety Administration 3) Automated Driving Systems

Source: Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 19

Computing hardware enabling level 4 autonomy is announced – Power
consumption remains a very significant challenge
Autonomous vehicle – Computing power: Current status
Technology Self-driving vehicles require an estimated computing power1) of
level 5: 2.000 - 4.000 TOPS ; level 4: 300 – 1.000 TOPS
Continuous sensor resolution increases lead to a steady increase in necessary computing
power -> Requirements are evolving

Current L2+ advanced driver assistance functions use a computing power of approx. 10 - 30
TOPS
Leading Semcos – such as NVIDIA, Intel and Qualcomm – have announced products with
sufficient computing power for level 4 autonomy
Computing power consumption remains a very significant challenge – Announced level 4
boards use approx. 1 kW of electrical power. Startups and selected OEMSs work on ICs with
significantly better energy consumption

Indicator rating

No activity Feasibility proven Development road-maps in place Roadmap-milestone achieved Commercialization towards deflection point Deflection point arrived
1) Semiconductors that are specifically developed for autonomous driving will require less computing power and achieve higher performance per Watt

Source: Desk research, Expert interviews, Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 20

59% of people think Level 4/5 vehicles should be on the roads by 2030
globally – India, ME, China, SGP are the highest AV believers
When do you believe we will have level 4/5 autonomous vehicles, ie fully autonomous vehicles
without drivers, commercially operational (not for testing) on the roads? Before 2030
India 17% 34% 30% 8% 7% 4%
UAE 14% 34% 32% 11% 8% 1%
KSA 15% 28% 33% 12% 9% 3%
China 4% 35% 36% 15% 9% 1%
Singapore 5% 28% 35% 14% 13% 5%
Thailand 11% 25% 31% 13% 15% 5%
Italy 5% 24% 38% 11% 14% 8%
Indonesia 11% 23% 31% 13% 17% 5%
South Korea 4% 20% 39% 15% 16% 6%
Israel 5% 22% 35% 17% 17% 4%
Brazil 5% 18% 37% 18% 17% 5%
Spain 3% 18% 36% 17% 19% 7%
USA 7% 19% 30% 14% 16% 14%
Russia 3% 19% 32% 15% 22% 9%
France 5% 15% 32% 13% 15% 20%
Norway 7% 18% 27% 15% 16% 17%
Canada 4% 15% 30% 16% 21% 14%
Germany 4% 14% 31% 16% 22% 13%
Japan 6% 10% 33% 10% 21% 20%
Sweden 3% 11% 30% 18% 20% 18%
UK 3% 14% 27% 17% 21% 18%
Belgium 3% 12% 24% 18% 23% 20%
Netherlands 3% 11% 25% 19% 19% 23%
GLOBAL 6% 20% 32% 15% 17% 10%

2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 Never

Source: RB online survey July 2021: 23,691 participants - Participants by country: Belgium (1,008) ; Brazil (1,010) ; Canada (1,020) ; China (1,014) ; France (1,014) ; Germany (1,005) ; India (1,003) ; Indonesia (1,016) ; Israel (1,381) ; Italy (1,015) ;
Japan (1,018) ; Netherlands (1,011) ; Norway (1,053) ; Russia (1,005); Saudi Arabia (1,008) ; Singapore (1,018); South Korea (1,012) ; Spain (1,012) ; Sweden (1,017) ; Thailand (1,025) ; UAE (1,013)20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx
; UK (1,000); USA (1,013) 21
55% of people globally are ready to use robotaxis, but there is a high
variance across countries
Autonomous users survey
Would you use a mobility service based on a fully autonomous robotaxi (autonomous driving taxis without a driver in the vehicle)?

No 13%
20% 21%
32% 33% 36% 37%
42% 46%
52% 54% 54% 55% 55% 55% 56% 58% 59%

Ø 55%

Yes 87%
80% 79%
68% 67% 64% 63%
58% 54%
48% 46% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44% 42% 41%

China India UAE South Singapore Russia Spain Italy Saudi Sweden France Nether- Germany Japan Canada Belgium UK USA
Korea Arabia lands

Source: RB Automotive Disruption Radar online surveys 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 22

 D. RB Automotive
Disruption Radar (ADR)
The Automotive disruption radar is the established and only tool in the
market measuring the change in the Automotive industry
04/2017 – ADR #1 09/2017 – ADR #2 02/2018 – ADR #3 09/2018 – ADR #4 03/2019 – ADR #5 09/2019 – ADR #6

10 issues launched
23 countries now in scope
26 indicators measured
04/2020 - ADR #7
>23,000 Respondent
Just released in Nov
2021 - ADR #10 05/2021 – ADR #9 12/2020 – ADR #8

We measure the change in the automotive industry

Source: Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 24

The "Automotive Disruption Radar" is based on a permanent screening of
26 indicators along five dimensions
Main indicators in the "Automotive Disruption Radar"
Amount of shared vehicles Mobility concept preferences
EV portfolio Autonomous vehicle preference
R&D intensity – Autonomous driving Mobility planning
Automotive products (Level 4+) 5 Digitized culture preference
Industry
Test roads – Autonomous vehicle activity 1 EV preference

Vehicle-2-vehicle communication Customer Mobility behavior

interest
Multi modal mobility 4 26 EV/PHEV sales
Infrastructure indicators
EV/PHEV charging infrastructure Customer curiosity
2
Mobile network – 5G coverage
3 Regulation Type approval process

Venture Capital invest – Artificial intelligence Technology

Restrictions for ICEs
Venture Capital invest – Mobility
CO2 legislation
Battery cost – EVs
Automotive association activities
Patent activities
Autonomous vehicle – Computing power
Source: Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 25
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Source: Roland Berger 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx 26