EG 5210: Technical Report 2

Group or individual Individual

Weighting 20%
Due Latest by 2359 hrs on 19-May-2023
1. Report in Word Document, with table of contents, numbered tables
Format and figures
2. Native file of Netica, Project Libre
Style Arial 10 with line spacing of 1.5
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Plagiarism
plagiarism
Documents referred in preparing the work shall be referenced.
Referencing
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1. You are assigned the task of modelling the consequences arising from the Loss of Containment
(LOC) of a flammable liquid stored in a storage tank using the Bayesian Network (BN) technique. In
the case of an LOC event, the immediate consequence is the formation of a pool of flammable liquid
outside the tank. A gas detection system is installed to detect any such escaping liquid from the
tank. The liquid pool can catch fire only if a source of ignition is present in the vicinity. A fire-fighting
system is in place which is intended to prevent escalation of fire.

Node State Probability

True 0.2
LOC
False 99.8
Small 20
Pool Size for confirmed Medium 30
LOC
Large 50
Failed 1
Gas Detector Condition
Functional 99
Present 0.5
Source of Ignition
Absent 99.5
Functional 98.5
Fire Fighting System
Not Functional 1.5
Confirmed Fire 30
Fire
No Fire 70

Information is available from the operational records is as follow

• During loading/unloading activities while performing certain maintenance tasks, a small pool of
liquid is expected 90% of the time and a medium pool, 10% of the time.
• Due to unrelated reasons, a similar tank had experienced fire despite all other systems being
healthy. Hence it was advised to attribute a 5% probability of fire to the model for this condition

1.1 Develop a BN model and estimate the current state of risk associated with fire resulting from
an LOC event (3)
1.2 Perform sensitivity analysis on the impact of the fire event on the other nodes. Discuss your
findings (2)

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 EG 5210: Technical Report 2

1.3 Since this is an infrequent scenario, simulate the BN model to generate a case with 100
cases and 2% of data missing. Analyse the simulation output and summarise your findings
related to the probabilities with individual node states (3)

2. Develop a Bow Tie Model incorporating Fault Tree & Event Tree for the top event “Pump Fails to
Stop” in the narrative below. Describe the preventive and recovery barriers in place. What would
be your recommendations on additional barriers? (3)

Fluid from a reservoir (not shown) is pumped into a tank. The switch shown in the pumping circuit
is normally closed. Pumping is initiated by an operator who manually re-sets the timer (as given in
Operating Manual), upon which the timer contact closes and pumping starts. Before any
overpressure condition exists, the timer times out and opens the contact, thereby stopping the
pump and preventing tank rupture due to overpressure. If the timer contact does not open with the
pump still running, the operator observes the reading on the Pressure Gauge and opens the
manual switch, thereby stopping the pump. If both the timer and operator fail, the relief valve
protects the tank from overpressure.

3. The list of tasks, durations, dependencies, and resources for a project are provided. The Standard
Rates for Resources 1, 2 and 3 are $50/hr, $70/hr and $100/hr respectively. Material 1 costs $20k
while Material 2 costs $50k. The project is scheduled to start on 01-June-2024 and is set to follow
a standard work calendar. No additional information is available.

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 EG 5210: Technical Report 2

Task Duration Predecessors Resources

Task 1.1 5 days None Resource 1
Task 1.2 10 days Task 1.1 Resource 1; Material 1
Task 1.3 4 days Task 1.2 Resource 2; Material 1
Task 1.4 5 days Task 1.3 Resource 3;Material 1
Task 2.1 3 days Task 1.4 Resource 2;Material 1
Task 2.2 4 days Task 2.1 Resource 3;Material 2
Task 2.3 3 days Task 1.4 Resource 2; Material 2
Task 3.1 3 days Task 2.2 Resource 1;Material 1
Task 3.2 2 days Task 2.2 Resource 2; Material 2
Task 3.3 4 days Task 3.2 Resource 2;Material 2
Task 4 6 days Task 3.3 Resource 3; Material 2

1. Develop a baseline schedule and cost based on these inputs and justify the estimated
cost and date of completion of the project. Provide screenshots of the GANTT chart and
network diagram showing the critical path. (2)

2. The status of completion as of 01-July-2024 was found to be as follows. Tasks 1.1, 1.2
& 1.3: 100%, Task 2.1 – 70%, Task 2.2 – 60%, Task 2.3 – 50% while none of the
subsequent tasks could be started.

1.4 Discuss the changes to project duration and cost in this scenario using comparison
(plan vs. actual) of the following variables, considering all tasks and resources
involved (3)
o Project progress
o Actual Work &. Baseline Work (S-Curves)
o Actual Cost & Baseline Cost (S-Curves)

1.5 Analyse the incomplete and yet-to-be-started tasks and propose a catch-up strategy
for the project. Justify the strategy using a comparison of values for the same
variables discussed in Question 2.1 above (1).

END OF DOCUMENT

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