ASSIGNMENT-1

DECISION SCIENCE MODELS

SEMESTER-4TH, SECTION-A

(Q.1) Given below is a transition matrix showing input output analysis. (CO-1 & BL-3)

Sector of
Sector of Origin Destination Final Demand Total Output
A B C
A 10 50 25 15 100
B 50 10 15 125 200
C 15 20 5 60 100
Labour 25 120 55

Compute the gross output level if final demand of sector C changes to70.

(Q.2) Explain the concept of Input and Output analysis with suitable example. What are the
various assumptions of Input and Output analysis? (CO-1 & BL-1&2)

(Q.3) There is a famous Italian game called Two-Finger-Morra. This game played by two people
each of whom shows one or two fingers and simultaneously guesses the number of fingers his
opponent will show. If just one player guesses correctly, he wins an amount equal to the sum of
the fingers shown by himself and by his opponent; otherwise the game is considered a draw.
Obtain the pay-off matrix corresponding to it. (CO-2 & BL-1)

(Q.4) Can there be “two-person zero-sum” game which has a value of zero? If so, write the pay-
off matrix of one such game and find out the optimal strategies of the players. (CO-2 & BL-1)
 ASSIGNMENT-2
DECISION SCIENCE MODELS
SEMESTER-4TH, SECTION-A

(Q.1) A sales man makes all sales in three cities X, Y and Z only. It is known that he visits each
city on weekly basis and never visits the same city in successive weeks. If he visits city X in a
given week, then he visits city Z in the next week. However, if he visits city Y or Z, he is twice
as likely to visit city X as the other city. Obtain the transition probability matrix and also
determine the proportionate visits by him to each city of the cities in long-run.(CO-3 & BL-1&3)

(Q.2) To investigate brand switching between different brands of detergent powder, a research
company surveyed shoppers in an area to discover their behavior .The survey on a number of
shoppers in relation to three leading brands, super wash, clean and shine revealed following
information-

Current Buy Previous Buy Number

Super wash Super wash 200

Clean Clean 150

Shine Shine 100

Clean Super wash 50

Shine Super wash 25

Super wash Clean 80

shine Clean 45

Super wash Shine 130

Clean Shine 20

i) Using the above information develop a transition probability matrix.

ii) Calculate market share of each brand after two purchases. (CO-3 & BL-1 & 3)
(Q.3) Write short notes on the following; (CO-4 & BL-1)

i) EMV
ii) VPI

(Q.4) A company manufactures 30 items per product. The sale of these items depends upon
demand which has the following distribution.

Sale 27 28 29 30 31 32
(units)
Probability 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.35 0.15 0.05

The production cost and sale price of each unit are Rs.40 and Rs.50 respectively. Any unsold
product is to be disposed off at a loss of Rs.15 per unit. There is a penalty of Rs.5 per unit if the
demand is not met. Using the following random numbers, estimate the total profit/loss for the
company for the next 10 days. Random Numbers: 10, 99, 65,99,95,01,79,11,16 and 20. If the
company decides to produce 29 units per day, what is the advantage or disadvantage to the
company? (CO-5 & BL-3)