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Introduction
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References
Cited bysnippets
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(51)
Journal of Computational Science
Volume 2, Issue 1, March 2011, Pages 1-8

Twitter mood predicts the stock market

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Author links open overlay panelJohan Bollen , Huina Mao , Xiaojun Zeng
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2010.12.007Get rights and content

Abstract
Behavioral
Does
decision
we
correlated
daily
mood
Alert,
lity
sality
public
ges
proved
predicting
rage investigate
to
inPercentage
Twitter
this
analysis
Sure,
and
detect
DJIA
mood
bymaking?
also
the
Google-Profile
to
the
economics
Vital,
closing
the
states,
the
feeds
inclusion
apply
and
daily
whether
Error
public's
value
Kind,
By
aby
values.
as
up
to
Self-Organizing
extension
two
tells
(MAPE)
measured
of
societies
and
measurements
and
ofresponse
the
of
mood
specific
us
Our
down
Happy).
Mood
Dow
that
by
is
results
at
tracking
by
changes
the
more
Jones
to
public
large,
emotions
States
the
Fuzzy
We
the
public
of
indicate
OpinionFinder
than
i.e.
Industrial
presidential
cross-validate
(GPOMS)
collective
mood
tools,
inNeural
mood
can
can
the
6%.
namely
that
dimensions
societies
closing
profoundly
correlated
Network
mood
Average
that
the
election
and
the
OpinionFinder
accuracy
values
measures
experience
states
resulting
GPOMS
are
but
(DJIA)
affect
or
and
of
then
not
derived
even
of
the
Thanksgiving
mood
individual
over
others.
DJIA
mood
mood
used
mood
predictive
DJIA
that
from
time.
inpredictions
to
time
time
and
We
states
terms
measures
investigate
behavior
large-scale
We
find
aseries,
of
series
day
reduction
that
of
analyze
economic
an
6incan
positive
dimensions
affect
by
and
accuracy
are
2008.
the
Twitter
comparing
be
the
predictive
decision-making.
of
hypothesis
their
indicators?
significantly
Atext
the
vs.Granger
of
feeds
negative
collective
Mean
(Calm,
content
86.7%
their
ofare
that
chan-
Ave-
Here
cau-
in
im-
abi-
of

Research highlights
► Public
Twitter
ges
lar
changes
Calm,
in Dow
feeds.
inmood
increase
Introduction DJIA
Jones
►states
closing
Daily
Industrial
the accuracy
along
variations
values
7Average
different
to
ofin
87.6%.
a Self
public
closing
dimensions
Organizing
mood
values.
states
of
Fuzzy
►mood
Certain
show
Neural
are
statistically
dimensions
measured
Networksignificant
from
model
of public
the
intext
predicting
correlation
moodcontent
states,
up
to
ofin
and
daily
large-scale
particu-
down
chan-

Stock
market
walk
largely
ble,
racy stock
[43].
theory
market
driven
really
market
and
prediction
be
bythe
predicted?
new
prices
Efficient
information,
will
hasEarly
follow
attracted
Market
research
ai.e.
random
Hypothesis
much
news,
onattention
rather
walk
stock
(EMH)
pattern
market
than
from
[12].
present
and
prediction
academia
According
cannot
and past
as
be
[14],
well
to
predicted
prices.
the
[13],
asEMH
business.
[19]
Since
with
stock
was
news
more
But
based
market
iscan
than
unpredicta-
onthe
prices
random
50%
stock
accu-
are

A growing
the
Numerous
be
search
ne
This
chat
sales.
model
provide
vestigated
Huberman
canpredicted
social
Socionomic
actually
activity
may
Liu
to
also
early
media
extract
conceivably
etthe
body
studies
[1]
suggests
al.
predict
predicts
[4],
indicators
relations
provided
[30]
Theory
(blogs,
of
indicators
[24],
research
show
box
predicted
that
book
also
[16],
Twitter
of
between
aoffice
of
that
news
demonstration
Finance
be
sales.
disease
of
[43]
has
stock
the
sentiment
the
receipts.
may
feeds,
however
thereby
breaking
Mishne
case
future
infection
(STF)
market
beetc.)
for
unpredictable
calling
from
product
critically
and
[42],
of
the
financial
to
prices
how
rates
predict
stock
Rijke
blogs.
[41],
into
public
sales
do
and
examined
market.
[34]
news
behavioral
not
question
In
changes
but
consumer
using
addition,
sentiment
used
follow
that
andFor
EMH
aassessments
in
stock
very
EMH's
Probabilistic
economics
aexample,
various
spending
random
Google
related
early
[31],
price
basic
in
indicators
economic
search
changes.
Gruhl
walk
to
[47]
of
particular
[6].
assumptions.
Latent
movies,
blog
and
Schumaker
et
queries
sentiment
al.
Most
and
can
Semantic
behavioral
as
from
[18]
commercial
be
indeed
expressed
have
recently,
Some
showed
extracted
the
and
to
Analysis
been
perspective
finance
to
Chen
predict
recent
some
Asur
how
on
shown
indicators.
from
[46]
Twitter,
(PLSA)
re-
[36].
and
movie
online
degree
onli-
in-
to
of

Although
equally
an
that
me significant
that
financial
important
the
news
public
decisions
role
mostrole.
in
mood
certainly
human
We
are
andsignificantly
know
decision-making
sentiment
influences
from psychological
can
driven
stock
drive
[9],
market
by stock
[7],
emotion
research
[23].
prices,
market
and
Behavioral
public
that
values
mood
emotions,
mood
[36].
as
finance
much
states
It in
ishas
as
therefore
addition
or
news.
provided
sentiment
to
reasonable
information,
further
may play
proof
to assu-
an
play

However,
and
ket
pensive
dices.
cer
low games
prediction.
degree
early
Some
and
assessments
if[10]
to
it
have
time-consuming
which
isand
Large
our
therefore
from
goal
the
surveys
ofchosen
weather
to
theproposed
study
public
of
to indicators
public
conduct,
conditions
how
mood
indirect
public
mood
cf.
at
areGallup's
a[20].
over
mood
assessment
expected
time-scale
representative
The
influences
opinion
accuracy
toand
of
bepublic
correlated
polls
resolution
the
ofsamples
stock
these
and
moodvarious
with
markets,
appropriate
methods
or
of sentiment
the
public
consumers
population
we
is mood.
however
need
forfrom
practical
reliable,
and
are
the
limited
well-being
generally
results
stock
scalable
by of
mar-
the
ex-
soc-
in-

Over
tors
cular
only
an
traction
[17],
accurate
of
140
[50].
the
large-scale
public
of
characters,
past
ment-trackingsuch
representation
mood
5indicators
years
indicators
Twitter
directly
the
significant
aggregate
feeds
of
offrom
such public
public
[39].
asprogress
social
ofAlthough
[8]mood
mood
millions
andmedia
has
state
andbeen
“Pulseeach
of
content
sentiment.
from
tweets
of so-called
made
online
such
submitted
inThis
Nation”.
2sentiment
as
sources
tweet,
Inblog
hastoi.e.
fact,led
content
and
Twitter
tracking
an
torelating
recent the
individual
[17],
atdevelopment
workany
techniques
[34],
them
given
has user
[30],
to time
economic
post,
started that
of
[8]
toreal-time
may
is
and
extract
limited
provide
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explore indica-
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toex-
the

In generate
posts,
tool,
gative
to
public
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indicate
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and
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Acknowledgments
Wethe
cript.
Johan
formerly
at
PhD
of human
thank
inWe
Department
Experimental
Bollen
aare
hypertext
David
staff
also
scientist
isCrandell
grateful
associate
ofnavigation.
Computer
Psychology
atand
to
the
professor
Daniel
Michael
Los
He
Science
from
Alamos
has
Kahneman
atNelson
the
taught
the
of University
Old
National
Indiana
for
courses
Dominion
fortheir
his
University
Laboratory
ofearly
on
helpful
Brussels
University
Data
comments
comments
Mining,
School
from
in 2001
from
2005-2009,
of
onInformatics
on
on
2002
ourthe
earlier
work.
to
subject
and
2005.
versions
and
anofHe
Assistant
Computing.
cognitive
obtained
of this Professor
manus-
models
his
He was

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