How Britain joined the EU
- UK wasn’t a founding member of the EU. Part of free trade “club” = win access to the single market.
- Applied in 1961 => Vetoed by De Gaulle.
- Accepted in 1972 => Conservative PM Edward Heath, with the European Communities Act.
- Member on 1 January 1973.
- Already been a Brexit referendum in 1975 => resulting in an overwhelming 67% “yes” to continue as a member
of the EEC.
- Britain wasn’t a member of the Euro Zone, neither was it ever part of the Schengen space. Thatcher obtained
rebates on contributions. All of this led to Professor Stephen George describing the UK as an “awkward
partner”.
A quick overview of British political parties and governments since 2005
=> The timeline of UK Prime Ministers since 1979
Margaret Thatcher (1979-1990) -> John Major (1990-1997) -> Tony Blair (1997-2007) -> Gordon Brown (2007-2010) ->
David Cameron (2010-2016) -> Theressa May (2016-2019) -> Boris Johnson (2019-2022) - Liz Truss (Sept–Oct 2022).
Conservative Party & UK Independence Party (UKIP) (2010-2015) = Euroscepticism
New Labour government (1997-2010) & Conservative/Lib Dem coalition (2010-2015) = avec Europe
June 23, 2016, = historic referendum = 52% of voters chose to leave the EU
Prime Minister David Cameron = remain in the EU = resigned after that = Theresa May tb3ato o wlate PM (new
conservative leader)
March 2017 = the UK triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, officially beginning the Brexit process.
= UK and EU have two years to negotiate a “divorce” deal, or the UK will become a third party with unregulated relations
(trade, immigration).
Numerous challenges, including anticipated issues such as citizens' rights, immigration, EU law, and the complex matter of
the Irish border. => the Conservatives held a slim majority, and after the 2017 snap election, they lost that majority,
leading to the EU withdrawal bill being rejected multiple times in Parliament. => Theresa May resigned in 2019 => in
September 2019, Johnson suspended Parliament for five weeks.
Election 2019 => September 2019 => Parliament voted to outlaw a "no-deal" Brexit and compelled Prime Minister Boris
Johnson to seek an EU extension until January 31, 2020. => Johnson leaded an election campaign => the Conservatives
securing an additional/extra 80 seats for a total of 365, while Labour obtained 202 seats. => This majority enabled
Parliament to swiftly pass Brexit legislation in January 2020.
31 January 2020 => The UK formally exited EU
30 December 2020 => The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation agreement
1 January 2021 => the free movement of people (requiring visas) and goods (subject to customs regulations) ceased.
Insularity and Britishness
Shakespeare = “this sceptred isle” in Richard II (1597)
England is an island makaynash f Europe = Common Law born with William I & implemented with Henry II.
Religion = the church of England in 1534 with Henry VIII breaking off from the influence of the Pope.
The Anglosphere: Britain’s ‘natural’ partners?
- Britain joined the EEC late...why?
English-speaking world:
- Colonial Empire (17th - 20th centuries)
- Decolonisation and Commonwealth
- United States: “special relationship”
European closeness: - Suez Crisis (1956): distance with US / rapprochement with France - (Secret) French application for
the Commonwealth (Guy Mollet)!
EU: economic partnership or “ever-closer union”?
EU = Economic community = not political union.
Thatcher = negotiate a 40% rebate on UK contribution to the EU budget in 1985. = opted-out of the Euro and of the
Schengen area.
Euro wasn’t seriously considered by Conservative PM John Major because of the 1992 Black Wednesday, an economic
crisis.
European Convention on Human Rights = Human Rights Act (1998)
2016 = Weeks before the referendum = Cameron obtained an exemption on EU migrants’ access to full benefits for the
first 7 years of residency.
Economic benefits of being a member state?
Much-maligned Common Agricultural Policy (France receives 22%, UK 10%).
BUT UK received a lot in research projects and funding for poorer areas… = Birmingham National Exhibition Centre,
Liverpool John Lennon Airport, Manchester Natural History Museum, Swansea Waterfront Museum, Infrastructure in
Northern Ireland and Scotland...
Economic recession (2008)
Some US and UK banks (almost) collapsed due to risky loans granted to ‘subprime’ customers.
UK banks: Northern Rock taken into public ownership, Royal Bank of Scotland rescued by the government
UK economy shrank by 6% (2008-09)
Highest unemployment since 1995 (8% -- vs 4% in 2017)
Triggered ‘austerity’ policy of the coalition government (2010-2015)
Recession = working class = “Little Britain” (2003) = “Catherine Tate Show” (2004) = “Benefits Street” 2014
CHAVs are a pejorative term standing for “Council Housed and Violence”
2011 = Riots a3mal chaghab = one year before Olympics
“Broken Britain” was a common expression in the 2010’s.
Plan B, Ill Manors, 2012 = song about 2011 riots = Singer from East London, criticises: - Politicians’ attitude - Austerity
policy - Image of working class in media.
Stuart Maconie, Long Road from Jarrow, 2017 = Brexit proved that there is not one England.
The Iraq War?
- After 9/11: PMTony Blair (Labour) seeks alliance with George W Bush = Suspicion of ‘weapons of mass destruction’
(WMD) in Iraq = Alliance = March 2003: Invasion of Iraq by US/UK allied forces (despite UN position) = opposition of
Jeremy Corbyn (future Labour leader) leads ‘Stop the War’ coalition = July 2003: David Kelly (UK WMD inspector) dies by
suicide = July 2016: Chlicot Report reveals there were no WMDs = ‫مما زاد من عدم الثقة في السياسيين وأثار تساؤالت حول التوافق مع‬
‫الواليات المتحدة‬
The EU as a threat to British sovereignty?
the EU and Brussels as a "power-hungry Leviathan."
The supremacy of EU laws was unacceptable because it was going against UK Parliamentary sovereignty. = The UK
Parliament maintains its supremacy and has the authority to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972.
Myths and misconceptions about EU law
Deficit of education on political matters within the UK. = it was £160 million a week to EU = UKIP’s campaign relied on this
lack of education = the truth is 13,2% of British Laws came from Brussels = 53% come from Brussels out of all regulations.
People want Brexit = immigration
2016 = Criticism toward EU Laws = Boris Johnson = EU can dictate the shape of bananas and the power of vacuum
cleaners.
2014: EU Regulation to save energy (appliances < 900 W)
The regulation 2257/94 ruled on different classes of bananas fit for sale.
The Human Rights Act of 1998 = A gap in English Law cz there is no definition of Human Rights.
Before 1998, there wasn’t a right to privacy in the Law.
The Human Rights Act works in a slightly different way compared to usual regulations and directives. It says that all UK law
must be interpreted “so far as it is possible to do so” in accordance with the HRA. = EU regulations’ superiority over UK
law.
Incompatibility exists between British Law and HRA = UK judge a declaration of incompatibility. = he would rule according
to the HRA. (Uk law remains valid) = Parliament to decide whether to keep, to repeal or to modify the UK law. = le
parlement endo sovereign o tdar 9anoune 7o9o9 inssane bach le parlement yl9a 7le mochkela ila kante incompatibility
‫ويهدف إلى التوفيق بين احترام حقوق اإلنسان والسيادة البرلمانية‬.
‫ إما من قبل البرلمان أو من قبل الوزراء‬،‫ يكون هناك بيان توافق مكتوب في النص‬،‫في كل مرة يقر فيها البرلمان مشروع قانون‬.
BUT this only applies to the HRA, not all EU law!
The Sun and the Daily Mail are the most read press titles in the UK.
Part 3: The referendum: campaign, results, and analysis
A Eurosceptic group within the Conservatives threatened David Cameron’s leadership = The pressure likely came from the exposed to a biased view of these rational choices by the media. - Some voters voted FOR Brexit even though it would
far right as well, with UKIP growing as a serious contender on the Tories’ right wing. probably be bad for them!
Rise of UKIP Dominant ideology model - Dominant ideological messages of the Establishment (media, government, parties, businesses)
- Nigel Farage’s leadership (2006-2016) - Eurosceptic agenda - 2010 general election: 1 million votes (3%) - 2013 local have a strong impact on the electorate. - Limits: Difficult to really assess the media’s impact. And people are selective in
elections: 147 seats - 2014 European elections: 27% of the vote (1st party)! - 2014 byelections (Rochester and Clacton-on- their media exposure (selective retention) + social media / echo chamber - Brexit: Leave voters vote defiantly against a
Sea): first two UKIP MPs (who defected soon afterwards) - 2015 general election: 12% of the vote (but no MPs elected): perceived dominant ideology (Remain) in the media. - Accusations of “left-wing bias” on the BBC, even though high-profile
first-past-the-post system. = UKIP as a tangible threat for the Conservative party. political journalists (Andrew Neil, Andrew Marr, Laura Kuenssberg) seem to be more conservative as well.
Towards a referendum Social structure model - Social class= the most important factor influencing voting behaviour - Examples: Until 1974, ⅔ of
Post-2010, Conservative strategists aimed at addressing the growing demand for a referendum on EU membership. working class voted Labour; ⅘ of middle and upper classes voted Conservative - Limits: Labour’s losses in the 50s and
In May 2013, an EU (Referendum) bill was introduced in Parliament, passing the House of Commons but facing delays in 1970; middle-class gains for Labour in the 1960s. This link has been weakening for 50 years now = class dealignment (social
the Lords before being dropped. = A new version emerged after the 2015 election and successfully passed with change and media influence) - Vote in the Brexit referendum by social class (source: YouGov).
overwhelming support (316 to 53, with only the SNP voting against).
A first attempt at a Brexit referendum was actually made in 2014. = The Conservatives dropped the idea and chose to put
it in its manifesto for the 2015 General election. = The referendum was set to happen on 23 rd June 2016.
1) The campaign
- Parties in favour of staying in the EU: Labour, Green, Lib Dems, SNP... - Parties against: UKIP, DUP (Democratic Unionist
Party, Northern Ireland), BNP (British National Party, far-right), Communist, Respect.
A : Upper middle class, B Middle middle class, C1Lower middle class, C2 Skilled working class, D Working class, E Non-
BUT politicians were free to join any official campaign: - “Britain stronger in the EU” (most pro-remain Labour, Tories...) -
working.
“Vote Leave” (mostly Eurosceptic Tories)
Referendum = electoral promise in the 2015 Tory manifesto - Pressure from Tory Eurosceptics (coalition) + rise of UKIP
+ Smaller, unofficial campaigns - “Leave.eu” (!) = UKIP and Nigel Farage - “Grassroots Out”: Liam Fox (Tory) Kate Hoey
In Britain, there has been 2 national referendums since 1945, both regarding the EU, in 1975 and then 2016.
(Labour), George Galloway (Respect) - “Labour Leave” - “Left Leave” - “Academics for the EU” - “Scientists for the EU” -
Part 5 : THE BRITISH CONSTITUTION vs BREXIT
“Another EU is possible”
This constitution is “unwritten” constitution = flexible constitution = an ensemble of constitutional texts.
Remainers 25/30 Cabinet members: - David Cameron - Theresa May (Home Secretary) - Philip Hammond (Foreign sec.) -
An uncodified constitution = Constitutional texts
Jeremy Hunt (Health sec.) - Sajid Javid (Business sec.) - George Osborne (Chancellor of the Exchequer) - Amber Rudd
Rule of Law - Parliamentary sovereignty - 1689: Glorious Revolution and Bill of Rights
(Energy sec) … + The majority of Labour, Lib Dems and SNP MPs
Ancient documents = Key documents signed by the Monarch that introduced limits to his power = e.g. Magna Carta (1215)
Brexiters : 5 Cabinet members:- Michael Gove (Lord Chancellor / Justice) - John Whittingdale (Culture) - Chris Grayling
King John (Lackland) Some regal acts may be unlawful.
(Transport) - Priti Patel (Employment) - Theresa Villiers (Northern Ireland) + 140 Tory MPs including Jacob Rees Mogg,
Statute law = power from monarch to parliament = Legislation passed by Parliament Act of Settlement (succession to the
Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson (11:10) + 10 Labour MPs, a few Lib Dems and SNP backbenchers.
throne…) Acts of Union 1707, 1800: created GB and UK Representation of the People Acts (1830, 1909…): right to vote
Arguments
Parliament Acts 1911, 1949: Reduced powers of the House of Lords to scrutiny.
Leave: - EU as an undemocratic institution - Unnecessary, expensive - Bureaucracy - Loss of sovereignty - Immigration -
Case law / Common law = Legally binding court decisions / binding precedents = Entick v Carrington (1765): limits to
Save money and spend it on the NHS
executive power / protection from unreasonable searches / early civil liberties = Campbell v Hall (1774): established king’s
Remain: - Leaving = risky move - Damaging the UK economy - Loss of trade partners - Jobs - Global influence
authority over colonies.
Leave Campaign suspended after Labour MP Jo Cox’s murder in Leeds by a far-right activist (June 16 - 19).
Conventions = Regularly observed practices, customs, “unwritten” traditions = Royal prerogatives (royal assent, etc) =
The polls
W.Bagehot. The English Constitution (1867): describes conventions = Secret Memos (1974): procedures for Hung
20% of people were undecided = “Leave” won by a significant margin of about 1 million votes
Parliament
The results
European Law (until 2020?) = Statutes passed by European Parliament and their British equivalents = European
Leave = 51,9% (England -Wales)
Communities Act 1972 = Human Rights Act 2000 2.
Remain = 48,1% (Scotland – Northen Ireland)
Recap on British political institutions
Electoral analysis
Monarch = part of Parliament - State Opening of Parliament - All bills need to receive the Royal Assent to become law. =
The younger you are, the higher the degree, the higher was the chance of voting “Remain”.
The last monarchs to disagree with a bill were Queen Anne in 1701 and Queen Victoria in the 1870’s.
Remain = Liberal democrat – Labour – Green. = Education degree = age 18-49
Monarchs = political role = neutrality
London = 28 council areas voted = 5 voted Leave = the strongest supporters of remain were Lambeth, Hackney, Haringey.
House of commons = “lower house” (but more powerful) = Elected chamber. General elections every 5 years. 650 MPs. = -
Bimingham = remain>leave
Majority: frontbenchers (government ministers) and backbenchers = Opposition: frontbenchers (shadow cabinet) and
Impact on traditional ‘voter choice’ theories: partisan dealignment?
backbenchers = Speaker: Neutral MP elected by other MPs Divided into 2 sections (majority, opposition) but no longer
The Michigan model relies on the theory of political socialisation, which includes the party identification model,
bipartite.
following certain factors. For a long time, political scientists thought that people were voting for a certain party due to
House of Commons composition: 2015: 12-seat Tory majority = 2017: Hung Parliament, no party has a majority - Tories 9
several parameters: Family, peer groups, religion, education system, mass media, etc.
seats short of a majority = 2019: 80-seat Tory majority
Add to that the party alignment models (Partisan alignment), with authors like Christopher Wilson, who wrote A/S Level
in Government and Politics in 2003. = Psychological attachment to a particular political party, strong identification. - Like
supporting a football team: may be passed on through generations. You support your team even though they’re not the
best. Not a rational choice - Limit: tactical voting? (voting to defeat your enemy) like in 1997 - Applicability to Brexit?
Traditional party-political lines did not apply (various campaigns)
Partisan dealignment = The end of the party identification model. It is no longer possible to equate class, age, education
with a party allegiance. Influence of media, education... = Examples: working-class voters swinging to the Conservatives, -
Limits: identification with left or right remains strong within the British electorate
Rational choice model - Voting = product of an assessment of the relative merits of each party. Instrumental, rather than
emotional. Consumer approach. - Examples: choosing what it best for one’s family, or for “society” - Limits: Voters are
House of Lords = “upper house” = Lost the power to veto Commons’ bills (1911, 1949) = Can only revise bills and propose
amendments. Commons have last word. = Lords spiritual: Church of England bishops and archbishops + other religions too
(26) = Lords temporal: appointed by the Monarch (but really by the PM) for their service and expertise. - Including
hereditary peers (92).
Devolved legislatures = - Since 1998: Delegation of specific legislative powers from UK Parliament to: - Scottish Parliament
(Holyrood, Edinburgh) - Welsh Assembly (Senedd, Cardiff) - Northern Irish Assembly (Stormont, Belfast) = Devolved powers
include: education, housing, law (except Wales), transport, health, environment, agriculture…
Supreme Court = Supreme judicial power - Final court of appeal (except Scotland) - Common law = its decisions are
binding on all courts in the UK - Rule on important constitutional matters - Until 2009, the role of Supreme Court was held
by the House of Lords (Law Lords) - Separate Supreme Court created (Constitutional Reform Act 2005) to protect
separation of powers - 12 members - President: Lord Reed.
Brexit and different views of the Constitution
- “Remainers” vs “Brexiters” = place of the UK in the EU
- “Roundheads” vs “Cavaliers” = role of Parliament and Constitution
Crown Prerogative vs Parliamentary sovereignty
Parliamentary sovereignty = central principle of the constitution = has the crown prerogative
- 1642-1649: English Civil War (Charles I) - ROUNDHEADS: Supporters of Parliament - CAVALIERS: Supporters of Monarchy
Brexit would be a modern version of the constitutional struggles of the Civil War.
- CAVALIERS = partisans of executive authority. Decisions linked to Brexit belong to the Government / Prime Minister
(Crown Prerogative exercised by the government). View defended by Theresa May (as PM) and other Brexiteers.
- ROUNDHEADS = partisans of Parliamentary sovereignty. Parliament must debate all Brexit-related questions and must
hold a final, meaningful vote on the deal. View defended by Labour, Lib Dems, SNP.
Article 50: Brexit in the courts
July 2016 = Theresa May said she would trigger Article 50 = Gina Miller: “giving notice of withdrawal from the EU requires
an act of Parliament”. Theresa May: “this power belongs to the government”.
October 2017 = the court galte Miller.
January 2018 = Parliament has the authority to trigger Article 50
January 2018: Supreme Court rules against Govt (8-3) - General rule: power to join (or leave) international treaties belongs
to the Government (Crown Prerogative devolved to govt) - BUT: Govt cannot exercise this power if it means changing
domestic laws passed by Parliament (ECA 1972, HRA 1998…) - = Parliament had to vote to allow Theresa May to trigger
Article 50: EU (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017.
A challenge to the separation of powers?
Attacks against judges = In the context of the Brexit process, there were notable attacks against judges, exemplified by
comments from Daily Mail editor James Slack, who criticized judges as "out of touch" and accused them of "declaring war
on democracy" for delaying Brexit. The Sun similarly portrayed judges as a "loaded foreign elite" defying the will of British
voters. These criticisms implied that judges were overstepping their powers and encroaching on the legislative branch.
However, it's essential to note that the Constitutional Reform Act of 2005 marked a significant shift, transferring the
judicial branch from the House of Lords to the Supreme Court in 2009. Despite these attacks, it's important to recog nize
that the power of statutory interpretation has historically been substantial for UK judges under common law, and the
establishment of the Supreme Court was a constitutional development rather than an overreach of judicial authority.
The role of the House of Lords = revising chamber, which stands above party-political fights.
- 2017-18: Lords inflicted 15 ‘defeats’ to the government - ‘Amendments’ to the Withdrawal bill rather than proper
‘defeats’... - March 2017: Amendment on rights of EU citizens in the UK after Brexit (rejected) - “Meaningful vote” for
Parliament on the Withdrawal Bill (accepted)
- An influential role despite their inferiority? - May 2018: T.May nominated 10 new (Conservative) peers. - 2019-2022:
Johnson appointed 86 new peers.
Unusual constitutional procedures under Brexit
- 2018-19: T.May survived 2 votes of no-confidence (in her party and in H of C) - January 2019: Speaker John Bercow had to
rule on the legality of parliamentary procedures: blocked a vote on a new Brexit deal because it was too similar to a
previously rejected deal (using a law from 13th century!)
- March 2019: The ‘Letwin’ amendment: For the first time, Commons held indicative, non-binding votes to see if any
majority could be found on a Brexit deal (spoiler: no majority was found!)
- Early General Election Act 2019: Made the 2019 election possible even though the Fixed Terms Parliament Act requires 5-
year cycles (previous election: 2017)
- September 2019: B.Johnson suspends Parliament for 5 weeks (instead of 3) to go beyond the Brexit deal deadline and
force Brexit without a deal. Prorogation is ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court, “PM misled the Queen”.
Brexit and its impact on political parties
A complete overhaul of UK politics?
- The main four parties around 20% voting intentions (Economist, June 2019) - Collapse of Labour and Conservatives - Rise
of Lib Dems and Brexit party - Creation of two new parties (Brexit and Independent / Change) = 2019 European elections
results:
1) The rise and fall of UKIP and the Brexit Party
- 2013-2016: Rise of UKIP as a ‘mainstream’ party but only 1 MP!* - Decline after 2016: Farage resigned after referendum -
*Douglas Carswell MP: left the party in 2017 - UKIP went back to its xenophobic roots (Gerald Batten): many members left.
Result in the 2019 EU Elections: 3% - November 2018: BREXIT PARTY founded by Christine Blalilock - March 2019: Farage
becomes leader of the Brexit party - Programme: Get Brexit done, “leave means leave”, no-deal Brexit - 2019 EU Election:
1st party in the UK! 30%; 29 MEPs
Brexit’s impact on the Eurosceptic far-right
- Brexit has made UKIP ‘redundant’ - UKIP’s driving force has reemerged as the Brexit party: another single-issue party (get
Brexit done at all costs) - Brexit has turned UKIP in what it always was: the Brexit party, and has turned the remnants of
UKIP into a traditional xenophobic far-right party. - Brexit party after Brexit?: Renamed the Reform Party in January 2021
(against lockdowns…) with Farage as ‘honorary president’.
2) Lib Dems, Change UK: impact on pro-EU, centrist politics
- January 2019: 7 MPs leave Labour and form The Independent Group (with Chuka Umunna), for a second referendum -
February: 4 Tory MPs join them (Anna Soubry), against hard Brexit - March: renamed “Change UK”. 3% of the vote in EU
elections - June: 3 Change UK MPs left for the Lib Dems. - - = Lib Dem resurgence? (re-branded as the pro-EU party) -
Byelection wins in 2016 (Richmond) and 2019 (Brecon). - 2nd party in the 2019 EU elections (20%) but poor results in
General elections.
3) Impact on the Labour party
- Lack of consistency in Labour’s Brexit position? - Corbyn: Eurosceptic background (against ECA 1972, Maastricht 1993,
Lisbon 2008) but campaigned for Remain in 2016. - 2016: Corbyn says remaining in the single market is impossible - 2019:
single market membership is an option! - 2nd Reading of the Withdrawal bill (October 2019): 19 Labour MPs in favour, 217
against… - = a very divided party
"Corbyn’s Labour party and Brexit": Increasingly diverse electorate - Middle-class vs working class concerns - Video: John
Harris, The Guardian, June 2016 - Example: Stoke-on-Trent (northern post- industrial town) results:
2015 General election : Labour: 39% - Tories: 27% - UKIP: 22%
2016 EU referendum : Leave: 69% - Remain: 30%
2017 General election : Labour: 49% - Tories: 35% - UKIP: 1%
2019 General election : Labour: 43% - Tories: 45%
No longer the party of the working class? - Traditional working class support in the “Red wall”: industrial North, Wales) -
New Labour (Tony Blair, mid-90s): seeking the middle-class vote - 1994: Labour removes Clause IV from its own
constitution (“common ownership of the means of production”) = not socialist? - Two broad categories of supporters: -
Europhile, educated middle-class - Eurosceptic working-class, see the EU as a source of immigrant workforce? - 65% of the
working-class voters voted to Leave in 2016.
4) A divided Conservative party - Conservatives had to strike a deal with the DUP in 2017 to save their majority = move to
the right? (DUP = socially conservative) - Party divided in many factions: - Europhobic European Research Group (ERG),
with Jacob Rees-Mogg - Brexiteers: Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith - Remainers: Kenneth Clarke, Dominic
Grieve (Anna Soubry) - Nov 2017: 15 Tory MPs vote against the government to rule out the March 2019 deadline.
La suite : - 5 leaders since 2016: Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak - September 2019: Johnson “removes the whip”
from 21 MPs who voted against the government (= excluded from the party) - April 2019: Ann Widdecombe, Annunziata
Rees-Mogg: defects to the Brexit Party for the EU elections - February 2019: Anna Soubry defects to the Independents -
September 2019: Philip Lee “crosses the floor” to the Lib Dems, Jo Johnson (Boris’s brother) steps down as an MP.
5) Mainstream politics after Brexit = - Jeremy Corbyn stepped down as Labour leader in April 2020 and was replaced by Sir
Keir Starmer (human rights lawyer, moderate Labour) - Several moderate Conservative frontbenchers retired or left their
party: Rory Stewart, Philip Hammond, Dominic Grieve, David Gauke… - 2019 election: new Parliament intake of younger
Conservative MPs, especially in the old “red wall” (formerly safe Labour seats in the north) - September-October 2022:
short-lived Liz Truss government (threat of economic collapse): low-tax agenda (Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng) - Rishi Sunak
cabinet: more radical immigration agenda (Home Secretary Suella Braverman), priorities = boost the economy and ‘stop
the boats’ (illegal migrants in the Channel). - 2023: David Cameron returns as Foreign Secretary!
Conclusion - Permanence of Eurosceptic groups until Brexit is implemented - Question of destiny of single-issue parties
like UKIP - Are the Tories becoming a single-issue party? (“Get Brexit Done”) - Mainstream parties are divided - Yet the Lib
Dems and Change UK have failed to gain momentum - “Remain” vs “Leave” has failed to materialise durably...for now -
December 2019 general election: back to normal?
ISSUES RELATED TO BREXIT
1) How to leave the EU? - Binding nature of a referendum? - A democratic exercise? - “Referendums are tools
used by dictators” (M.Thatcher, C.Attlee) - Theresa May insisted that the result of the referendum should be
implemented - However, that’s not always the case (cf France and Treaty of Lisbon in 2005). - Provisions for
leaving the EU: Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (see…):
a) How to trigger Article 50? - UK Constitution: Parliamentary sovereignty - Decision to trigger Article 50 belongs
to the executive power - Royal Prerogative (= transferred to the Prime Minister)? - OR Parliamentary power
(since Parliament passed the ECA in 1972)? Supreme Court ruled that this power belonged to Parliament: R
(Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, 2017) European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act, March
16th, 2017. Theresa May wrote to Donald Tusk (President of the EU Council) on March 29th, 2017 March 2019?
But deadline was extended twice (October 2019, January 2020).
b) The EU Withdrawal Bill - Parliament to repeal the ECA 1972? - “Great Repeal Bill” = European Union
(Withdrawal) Bill = “to cut off the source of EU law in the UK and remove the competence of EU institutions for
the UK) - Transform all EU law in force in the UK into UK law - Parliament then decides to repeal, modify or
keep them. - BUT: 50,000 - 80,000 pieces of legislation need to be reviewed! - “Henry VIII” clauses: statutory
instruments / secondary legislation which could be modified by ministers, rather than Parliament
(sovereignty??) - Terms of the deal with the EU had to be submitted to a Parliamentary vote.
c) Financial settlement - As EU member, UK undertook obligations, responsibilities. - Long-term EU programs and
funding - Settlement bill estimate: £ 40 billion (up from £30 in 2017) - Dominic Raab (Brexit Secretary) in 2018
and Boris Johnson in September 2019 said they would not pay if there was a “no deal” Brexit - … the amount of
the settlement depends on the type of Brexit (very uncertain)...
2) Types of Brexit… a) No-deal - = Britain would leave the EU without an agreement with the EU - No ‘Withdrawal
Act’ voted in Parliament - Things which would become unregulated overnight: EU citizens’ rights, immigration,
application of EU laws, trade… - Immigration: all EU immigrants (without “settled status”) in the UK become
illegal overnight. Immediate need for tourism and employment visas. - Trade: basic World Trade Organisation
rules. Tariffs would raise from 2.8% (non-agricultural products) to 10% (cars) or 35% (dairy). - Loss of all EU
trade agreements, to be renegotiated (except Faroe Islands).
b) Hard Brexit vs soft Brexit 1. Hard Brexit = like no-deal, but with a minimal relationship with the EU: ● Leaving the single
market, ● end of free movement of people... ● … and of goods and services, ● scrapping EU rules and regulations ●
immigration control 2. Soft Brexit = many different definitions. Staying in the single market? Or customs union? Or EEA?
What about free movement?
3) Practical issues: a lack of planning? - Operation Yellowhammer (August 2019), cf video - UK / France border at Calais /
Dover, delays and queues in Kent (Operation Stack)
Moving the French border? - 1993: Opening of the Channel Tunnel, juxtaposed immigration offices on each side (Calais
and Folkestone) - 2003: Treaty of Le Touquet, juxtaposed controls on the ferry routes (Calais and Dover, Dieppe and
Newhaven, etc) - 2016: X.Bertrand threatened to close the controls on the French side in the event of Brexit! - Since 2016:
no renegotiation, juxtaposed controls should continue BUT France does not have the manpower or facilities to process
increased control… - 2021: France demands that UK pay more on French border control
Other practical issues - Shortages of food and medicines (longer customs checks at the border). 1 out of 4 UK voters
started stockpiling food in 2018-19. - Lack of EU nationals in the workforce in some sectors (hospitality industry,
construction, HGV drivers…) - Fishing issues: EU Common Fishing Policy (1964, London Fisheries Convention), quotas per
member state. Impact on Irish fisheries? Increased supply on UK fish market, but import more seafood.
Economic impact? - Did the UK economy shrink? - Loss of trade partnerships and influence - Displacement of financial
institutions (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank have made plans to leave London). - Value of £ sterling has
decreased (but less than in 2008) - Inflation has risen by 1.7% since 2017 - Average salary has decreased by 1% since 2017.
Impact on specific industries ● British Car industry: ○ PSA factories in Coventry, Ellesmere port ○ BMW in Oxford… ○
customs and taxation on car parts, costs ● Cultural industries: ○ music (touring and recording), ○ film (Pinewood and
Borehamwood studios), ○ video games (Rockstar, Rare…), ○ Premier League (EU work permit…)
4) Freedom of movement? - No preferential status for EU migrants in post-Brexit UK - Long-term EU citizens in the UK had
to apply for ‘settled status’ until 2021. Problem of lack of proof of long-term residency - EU citizens require a visa for long-
term visits (like USA) - Some EU tourists have been detained at the border... - Unresolved questions: access of EU nationals
to the NHS / of UK nationals to the Assurance Maladie? - Same uncertainty over pensions - UK has left the Erasmus
programme (Turing Scheme)
EU immigration to the UK - Migration from EU to UK doubled between 2007 and 2017 - Labour gov had chosen not to
impose restrictions (unlike most EU) - UK: more migrants from new Eastern EU members after 2004, 2007 - Poland = 2nd
largest group of foreignborn residents (after India): 2001: 61,000 ---- 2015: 700,000
5) Threats to the UK’s integrity - Referendum results = territorial disparities
Particularities of the Scottish political landscape - ‘Rivalry’
with England - Scottish Parliament: SNP majority - SNP =
pro-EU, more efficient campaign in 2016 - Opportunistic
move by the SNP? - Scotland = more politically liberal than
England? (no tuition fees, no far-right parties, ambitious
childcare policy) - Different attitude towards national
identity than England / Britain - Tempted to live in a small,
European, liberal nation-state?
2018 Scottish voters poll - Source: YouGov, 2018 = Do you
identify yourself as being… - Scottish (strongly): 84% -
Scottish (not strongly): 15% - British (strongly): 59% - British
(not strongly): 40%
Scottish independence and Brexit = - 2014: Referendum on
Scottish Independence (55% No) - Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) and the Scottish government call for a second referendum based
on Brexit’s impact - But Scotland cannot hold another referendum unilaterally - February 2017: Scottish Parliament voted
against Article 50 - Voters’ will to leave the union with England and reactivate the ‘Auld Alliance’ (1295) with France (and
the rest of Europe)?
A boost for Scotland’s independence movement? - Northern Ireland has a special status (customs), Scotland too? (Ian
Blackford, SNP House of Commons leader, 19/10/19)
Impact on the Devolution = Since 1998: Delegation of specific legislative powers from UK Parliament to: - Scottish
Parliament (Holyrood, Edinburgh) - Welsh Assembly (Senedd, Cardiff) - Northern Irish Assembly (Stormont, Belfast)
Devolved powers include: education, housing, law (except Wales), transport, health, environment, agriculture… BUT
Devolution doesn’t mean federalism (England has no devolved institutions) Calls for a more egalitarian (federal?) system
and for proper independence for all 4 nations + potentially more autonomy for metro mayors (Manchester, Birmingham)
Ireland: from colonisation to independence - English / British colonisation of Ireland since 16th c. - Act of Union 1800:
United Kingdom of GB and Ireland - Irish independence movement in WWI: 1916 Easter Rising - 1919: Ireland declares
independence (Irish Republican Army - IRA). War breaks out with UK - 1922: Anglo-Irish Treaty, Irish Free State (now
Republic of Ireland) - Partition of Ireland (Ulster): along religious and political lines - Northern Ireland (Ulster) remains in
the UK - Republicans / Nationalists / Catholics (majority): entirely independent Ireland - Unionists / Loyalists / Protestants
(majority): pro-UK
The Troubles (1960s - 1998) - Conflicts, riots in 1960s: militarisation of the border (UK forces) - Battle of Bogside (Derry):
1,000 injured - Bloody Sunday (Derry), 1972: 14 killed - Birmingham pub bombings, 1974: 21 killed - Tory Conference
bombing (Brighton), 1984: 5 killed - Lord Mountbatten (Prince Philip’s uncle) assassination, 1979.
Good Friday Agreement (1998) - Or “Belfast” Agreement - Northern Ireland remains part of the UK until a majority of
people in both NI and ROI decide to form a united Ireland - NI citizens may choose to hold British or Irish citizenship (or
both) - Structure of government in Northern Ireland (Devolution) = - Power-sharing agreement (permanent coalition) -
Demilitarisation of the border - EU funding to protect the agreement...
Can a ‘hard’ border be avoided after Brexit? - Avoid re-militarising the border (checkpoints) - “Hard border” after Brexit
could create tensions and affect communities across the border. - Open border with CCTV or automatic product scanning?
- Alignment of Northern Ireland with some aspects of EU single market = no checks on goods - … BUT this means displacing
the “real” border in the Irish Sea - Gives NI a particular status, not fully part of the UK? - EU single market: customs union +
same consumer laws for all - EU customs union: no customs fees for products between countries.
“Backstop” 1 - Entire UK remains in customs union until 2021 (transition) - No tariffs charged on goods crossing the border
- Northern Ireland remains in single market until 2021 - After 2021… another agreement will be in place (??)
Backstop 2 - Boris Johnson (September 2019) - NI leaves customs union - NI applies EU policy on goods being transported -
NI more or less in single market (= free movement of goods) but not customs union (= tariffs to be paid) - Creation of an
“all-Ireland” reglementation zone in NI and ROI (how? With EU rules???) - Random checks in the Irish Sea - Renegotiable
by both countries every four years after 2021.
October 2019: Johnson’s deal proposal - UK leaves customs union (=tariffs with EU) - NI applies “some” EU rules on goods
- De jure: NI in the UK’s customs territory - = customs border between NI and ROI - De facto: NI in the EU’s customs
territory - = no real customs checks at the border! - Real checks at points of entry in NI - = Real “border” down the Irish Sea
- Taxes only paid on goods from GB to NI if… - … products are “at risk” of being moved to ROI
October 2021: a new Irish border deal? - Since 2021, NI has effectively remained in the EU single market, customs border
between NI and GB in practice. - Checks on goods between GB and NI = supply chain disruption, shortages, reduced choice
for food in NI… ‘sausage wars’?? - EU proposal (2020): make UK follow EU sanitary rules on food? REJECTED by UK - EU
proposal (2021): some exports from GB to NI (meat, dairy, plants) to get a derogation + create NI-specific labelling - BUT
UK has not accepted for now because they also want the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice on this issue to be
removed…
2023: the Windsor framework - February 2023: Windsor framework signed by R.Sunak and U.Von Der Leyen = - No more
trade restrictions between GB and NI - Northern Ireland effectively remains in the single market + “Stormont brake”: UK
Parliament can block EU law that applies in Northern Ireland if NI government thinks it’s problematic.
Did the UK’s Covid response benefit from Brexit? - Health Secretary Matt Hancock (December 2020): “Because of Brexit”
the UK was able to be the first country in the world to approve use of the Pfizer vaccine since it was no longer bound by
the European Medicines Agency. - BUT this was already allowed by European law for emergencies (Human Medicines
Regulation 2012). - UK began vaccination a month before the rest of the EU - UK was able to obtain more vaccine doses
since it conceived and manufactured the University of Oxford / AstraZeneca Vaccine - BUT vaccination rates have levelled
off since then. - Boris Johnson was criticised for delaying implementation of the first two lockdowns in March and
November 2020 + issues due to devolved health policies in Scotland and Wales vs England.
Supply chain crisis - Shortage of HGV lorry drivers (many from EU) - Shortage of hospitality workers (43% were EU-born in
2019) - .... they cannot benefit from skilled worker status - ‘Threat’ of empty shops for Christmas - - Petrol shortage in
September 2021 - … Johnson considers relaxing the rules - Short-term visas for some non-skilled EU workers - Very few
applications were received.
“The reality of Brexit”: a few headlines - Fees for parcels: UK customers purchasing items from EU countries need to pay
VAT(and vice versa) or customs fees - Some UK businesses refuse to deliver to the EU (and vice-versa) as increased costs
make their businesses no longer profitable (transport firms, wine and beer import-export, etc) - Crisps on hold: A lorry full
of crisps destined to Northern Ireland was stuck in Liverpool for weeks as it couldn’t prove that the crisps would not then
be sent to another EU country - Ham sandwiches confiscated at a Dutch port due to a ban on British meat and dairy in the
EU.
Freedom of movement - Number of EU migrants to the UK decreased sharply after 2016 (600,000 down to 400,000 per
year) and has now stabilised. - Estimate: 5 million EU citizens who reside in the UK have applied for the Settlement Scheme
since 2016 - Higher education: the UK has left the Erasmus programme and launched its own equivalent (Turing Scheme) -
UK musicians: have to apply for visas for long UK tours or recording sessions + taxes to carry instruments through borders
(carnet) - EU footballers: work permits subject to skill assessment like non-EU players (national team caps).
Conclusion - Brexit involves trivial issues (football) and crucial ones (existence of the UK) - Loss of influence (European
Medicines Agency moved to Amsterdam) - Political opposition within the Conservative party (European Research Group
(ERG - Jacob Rees Mogg) and from the DUP (Northern Ireland) - Brexit negotiations made more difficult by the absence of
Conservative majority in the House of Commons until 2019 - Brexit made impossible by the specificities of the UK
constitution?