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Vietnam Banking Sector Update - SSIResearch - 20240503
Vietnam Banking Sector Update - SSIResearch - 20240503
The results for banks in our coverage universe were generally in line with what we had anticipated. Earnings recovery was slow (+8.3% YoY
and +4.6% QoQ), as NIM continued to be under pressure (-8 bps QoQ) in a weak credit demand environment (+2% YTD or 15% YoY). Meanwhile,
asset quality deteriorated after a brisk seasonal improvement in 4Q23. The deterioration, however, was at a greater magnitude than we expected.
At 1Q24, special mention loans (SMLs) and NPLs to total loans were 2.23% (+24 bps QoQ) and 1.94% (+23 bps QoQ, close to the 3Q23 high of
1.98%) respectively. The good news is forex trading gains partly offset stagnant bancassurance sales and weak write-backs. In addition, banks in
general successfully curbed OPEX, with a CIR of 30.7% (vs. 31% in 1Q23 and 36% in 4Q23).
On credit growth: Credit growth remained weak QoQ for most banks. TCB and HDB had the strongest QoQ growth of between 6.2 – 7.1%. The
driver for growth continued to be corporate clients, mostly in short-term tenures. Though new disbursement of mortgage lending showed recovery,
the ending balance was flat QoQ due to solid prepayment from clients. In terms of sector, the primary growth engine(s) was trading & services, real
estate developers and securities brokers at VPB, manufacturing & real estate at MBB, real estate & technology at TCB, construction at HDB, &
working capital loans at ACB. Consumer finance credit nudged up at HDSaison & Mcredit, while remained flat at FeCredit.
On asset quality: After the seasonal drop during 4Q23, Group 2 loans and NPLs surged QoQ at most banks under coverage, except for OCB in
1Q24. The quarterly NPL formation rate soared to 2.01% (vs. 1.12% in 4Q23 and 1.9% in 2Q and 3Q23). The impact from the CIC downgrade
became larger both amongst retail & certain large corporate clients, especially at names like MBB, VPB, MSB and HDB. However, the credit cost
did not rise in tandem with NPL formation rate (except for CTG) during the period, which could imply further provisioning burden in the coming
quarters. For reference to our dear readers, please be reminded that loans categorized as Pass/Special Mention/Substandard/Doubtful/Loss in
international parlance for the sake of simplicity are called Group 1-5 in Vietnam.
On NIM trend: Though average deposit rates declined significantly to 3.81% (-210 bps compared to the peak in 2Q23 and -85 bps QoQ), NIM
continued to be under stress (3.47%, -8 bps QoQ) given weak credit demand and strong price competition amongst banks. VCB, TCB, and OCB
were the few names to benefit from a wider NIM. While the rise at OCB mostly came from a low base during 4Q23, improvement in NIM at TCB
came with a significant rise in accruals (+20% QoQ) for bullet payment loans, which need to be further watched.
All in all, recovery is slow and clearer improvement in fundamentals should be expected in late 2024, as discussed in our recent report. Our
projections are under review either due to weaker-than-expected credit demand (VCB), lower-than-expected NIM (MBB, ACB, MSB), higher-
than-expected NPL formation rate (MBB), larger-than-expected credit provision (TPB, STB, ACB), or robust non-interest income (TCB, TPB).
APPENDIX
Chart 1: Credit & deposit growth in 1Q24 (YTD) Chart 2: Quarterly NPL formation rate & credit cost
10.0% 3.00%
8.0%
2.50%
6.0%
4.0% 2.00%
2.0%
1.50%
0.0%
-2.0% 1.00%
-4.0%
0.50%
-6.0%
VCB BID CTG ACB OCB HDB MBB MSB TCB TPB STB VIB VPB 0.00%
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
SOCBs JSCBs
Chart 3: NPL ratio & LLCR Chart 4: Quarterly NIM, funding costs and asset yields
7.0% 45.0%
40.0%
6.0%
35.0%
5.0%
30.0%
4.0% 25.0%
3.0% 20.0%
15.0%
2.0%
10.0%
1.0%
5.0%
0.0% 0.0%
VCB BID CTG ACB OCB HDB MBB MSB TCB TPB STB VIB VPB VCB BID CTG ACB OCB HDB MBB MSB TCB TPB STB VIB VPB
SOCBs JSCBs SOCBs JSCBs
60.0% 16 60.0%
100 50.0% 14 50.0%
40.0% 12 40.0%
80
30.0%
10 30.0%
60 20.0%
8 20.0%
40 10.0%
0.0% 6 10.0%
20 4 0.0%
-10.0%
- -20.0% 2 -10.0%
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
- -20.0%
VCB BID CTG ACB OCB HDB MBB MSB TCB TPB STB VIB VPB
SOCBs JSCBs
SOCBs (VND tn) - LHS JSCBs (VND tn) - LHS
SOCBs (YoY growth) - RHS JSCBs (YoY growth) - RHS NII 1Q24 (VND tn) YoY growth - RHS
VCB BID CTG ACB OCB HDB MBB MSB TCB TPB STB VIB VPB
SOCBs (VND tn) - LHS JSCBs (VND tn) - LHS SOCBs JSCBs
SOCBs (YoY growth) - RHS JSCBs (YoY growth) - RHS NFI 1Q24 (VND bn) YoY growth - RHS
140 45.0%
120
40.0%
100
80 35.0%
60 30.0%
40
25.0%
20
- 20.0%
4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst(s) on this report certifies that (1) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his/her/our own personal views about the
securities and/or the issuers and (2) no part of the research analyst(s)’ compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation
or views contained in this research report.
RATING
Buy: Expected to provide price gains of at least 10 percentage points greater than the market over next 12 months
Outperform: Expected to provide price gains of up to 10 percentage points greater than the market over next 12 months.
Market Perform: Expected to provide price gains similar to the market over next 12 months.
Underperform: Expected to provide price gains of up to 10 percentage points less than the market over next 12 months.
Sell: Expected to provide price gains of at least 10 percentage points less than the market over next 12 months
In some cases, the recommendation based on 1Y return could be re-adjusted by the analysts after considering a number of market factors that could have impact
on the stock price in the short and medium term.
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