Modern Advances in Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences Vol. 3 - E-Book

Modern Advances in Geography,
Environment and Earth Sciences

Vol. 3
Modern Advances in Geography,
Environment and Earth Sciences
Vol. 3
India . United Kingdom

Editor(s)
Dr. Kwong Fai Andrew Lo
Professor,
College of Science, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Email: andrewlo@faculty.pccu.edu.tw, ufab0043@ms5.hinet.net;
FIRST EDITION 2021
ISBN 978-93-90768-04-2 (Print)

ISBN 978-93-90768-05-9 (eBook)
DOI: 10.9734/bpi/magees/v3
_________________________________________________________________________________
© Copyright (2021): Authors. The licensee is the publisher (Book Publisher International).
Contents
Preface i
Chapter 1 1-18
Characterisation of Air Pollution on Trinidad’s North-West Coast (San Fernando to
Port-of-Spain)
Himawatee Baboolal and Derrick Balladin
Chapter 2 19-38
Critical Study on a Reclaimed Wastewater Allocation Optimization Model for
Agricultural Irrigation
Ahmed A. Aljanabi, Larry W. Mays and Peter Fox
Chapter 3 39-56
Study on Application of an Optimization Model for Assessing the Performance of
Water Appropriation in Iraq
Ahmed A. Aljanabi, Larry W. Mays and Peter Fox
Chapter 4 57-68
Phytochemical Screening and Antifungal Activity of Leaf Extracts of Prosopis
africana and Anacardium occidentale against Macrophomina Root Rot of Sesamum
indicum L. in Benue State, Central Nigeria
Matthew Elaigwu, Hyacinth Ocheigwu Apeh Oluma and Amana Onekutu
Chapter 5 69-73
Assessment and Investigation of Sugar Cane Bagasse Ash as a Binding Material
for the Construction Industry
E. Basika, J. Kigozi and N. Kiggundu
Chapter 6 74-90
Recent Advancement on Radical Urban Development in the Egyptian Desert
S. Abouelfadl, K. Ouda, A. Atia, N. Al-Amir, M. Ali, S. Mahmoud, H. Said and A. Ahmed
Chapter 7 91-119
Climate Change: Assessing the Vulnerability of the Niger Delta Region, in Nigeria
Stephena Udinmade Ighedosa
Chapter 8 120-128
Antarctica - The Superlative Continent
Amal Kumar Ghosh
Chapter 9 129-136
Studies on the Impact of Seasons on Leaf Dust Accumulation and Biochemical
Parameters of Selected Plant Species along Side the National Highway-7 in
Sirmaur, H.P, India
Jyotsana Pandit, Anil Sood, Satish Kumar Bhardwaj and Anish Kumar Sharma
Chapter 10 137-148
Assessment of Temperature Variability Effect on Rice Production in Nasarawa
State, Nigeria
Oladeinde Stephen Olufemi, Magaji I. Joshua and Ekpo Abraham Salamatu
Preface
This book covers key areas of geography, environment and earth sciences. The contributions by the
authors include trace metals, air pollution index, particulate matter, genotoxic carcinogens, gaseous
pollutants, agriculture, water allocation, reclaimed wastewater, irrigation, optimization navigator, nonlinear
programming, photochemical agent, antifungal screening, leaf extracts, phytopathogenic fungi, fungicidal
properties, sugarcane bagasse ash, agricultural development, climate change, economic transformation,
renewable energy, mitigation and adaptation, hazardous impact, environmental vulnerability, vehicular
emission, relative water content. This book contains various materials suitable for students, researchers
and academicians in the field of geography, environment and earth sciences.
i
ii
Chapter 1
Print ISBN: 978-93-90768-04-2, eBook ISBN: 978-93-90768-05-9
Characterisation of Air Pollution on Trinidad’s North-

West Coast (San Fernando to Port-of-Spain)
Himawatee Baboolal1* and Derrick Balladin1
DOI: 10.9734/bpi/magees/v3/6516D
ABSTRACT
Air pollution is a complex mixture of toxic gases and particulates that has been identified as the
largest global environmental threat facing the world today, estimated to have caused 7-10 million
deaths worldwide annually [1,2]. Trinidad is the most industrialised of the Caribbean islands, with a
large energy and petrochemical economic base. In addition, it is affected by seasonal Sahara dust
(PM2.5). This study characterizes the baseline levels of fine and respirable particulates (three PM size
fractions), trace metals in PM, gaseous pollutants and meteorological parameters at four sites over
the heavily populated west coast of Trinidad during March’ 15 - May ‘16. Stations represent rural,
urban, mixed background and industrial land uses.
Annual mean levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in ambient air exceeded the WHO guidelines for protection of
public health at all four stations (n=522). PM2.5 and PM10 exceed the WHO (2006) safe limit guidelines
3 3
(PM2.5 is 10 µg/m , PM10 is 20 µg/m ) over 70% of the time sampled at urban and industrial sites.
Factor analysis indicated the variables impacting PM distribution and type of PM (size fraction) were
time of year and location of station (land use). The temporal pattern for PM at the industrial station
was markedly different from the other three stations, being at a constant high level throughout the
year.
Trace metals (in PM10) found in exceedance of Canadian (Ontario) 2012 [3] standards were,
beryllium, cadmium, chromium, iron, manganese and nickel. Cd and Ni were deemed to pose the
highest risk to public health as they are genotoxic carcinogens found in the smallest PM fractions.
Several gaseous pollutants of concern were CO, NH3, NO2, N2O, C6H6. Nitrogen dioxide and
benzene were the most prolific, being the highest most frequently at the industrial and urban stations.
NO2 exceedance averaged 89% (often 2-3 times the USEPA limit for the protection of public
health), reflective of the large amount of industrial combustion gases in the ambient air in the Pt.
Lisas area. Benzene was found to exceed public health limit values >90% of the time
measured at the urban station (Port-of-Spain) and at >80% at the mixed background station
(at San Fernando). Both gases are reflective of combustion and vehicle emissions derived pollutant
sources.
The pollutant data was used to calculate and validate an aggregated Air Pollution Index (R2= 0.91)
that could be readily applied to ongoing monitoring data in four statistically validated classification
tiers; Good, Normal, High, Very High. The industrial station has the highest frequency of ‘very high’
pollutant levels, as well as the highest frequency of ‘good’ air quality days. The urban station had
highest frequency of ‘normal’ to ‘high’ rankings. The rural station, as expected, had much better
overall air quality. The worst air quality occurred during June-July ’15 and December ’15 -January ’16
periods. Monitoring data for air quality provides the best option to drive data driven decision making
and effective air pollution management. The baseline levels of air pollutants provide adequate
justification for revision of the current local regulations to afford better public health protection from
unnecessarily high levels of ambient air pollution.
Keywords: Fine and respirable particulates; trace metals; air pollution; air pollution index.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Centre for Environmental Studies and Applied Life Sciences, The University of Trinidad and Tobago, O’Meara Campus, Arima,
Trinidad and Tobago.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: hemas99@yahoo.com;
Modern Advances in Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences Vol. 3
Characterisation of Air Pollution on Trinidad’s North-West Coast (San Fernando to Port-of-Spain)
1. INTRODUCTION
The Caribbean region has a colonial history fostered around plantation agriculture. T&T (population
2
1.36M) is a twin island state (1548 km ) located at the bottom of the Caribbean archipelago (between
10.4 to 11.35 N lat, -60.52 to -61.93 W long), just outside the southern periphery of the Atlantic
hurricane belt. The state basks in a tropical maritime climate with two distinct seasons (wet and dry),
an annual rainfall of 2200mm and temperatures in the range of 22-33°C (mean 26.5°C) with
predominant winds blowing from the NE- the northeast trade winds. It has an industrialised economy,
based on natural gas and petrochemicals, and a relatively high pre-COVID-19 per capita GDP of
USD16,310 (2019).
Blessed with abundant petroleum and natural gas deposits, oil has been exploited in T&T from as
early as 1857 when the first well was drilled. Since achieving its independence in 1962, successive
governments have actively courted large scale industrial enterprises with little balance in
consideration to environmental health and pollution management issues [4]. The natural resources
have been a boon to local economic development; however, it has been a disincentive to conserve
the environment and many of the societal inequalities that preclude sustainable development have yet
to be bridged [5]. The per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) global ranking for T&T is on par with
countries like Qatar [6], averaging 27.6 tons per year of CO2 per capita [7] although the overall
contribution to global GHG levels is quite small (<1%). Besides locally produced industrial and urban
derived air pollutants, T&T like the rest of the Caribbean is also seasonally afflicted with trans-Atlantic
fine particulates brought over with the stratospheric Sahara Air Layer [8]. These pollutants are the
likely cause of increased respiratory and allergic response ailments observed by health workers
locally [9,10]. Air quality at any given time therefore depends on the surrounding land use, traffic
levels, weather conditions and time of year.
Air pollution is a complex multicomponent mixture that can have varying impacts on human health,
ranging from chronic effects on the respiratory and circulatory system to increased mortality from
respiratory disease and cancer [11-19]. Human health risks and environmental impacts are dependent
on the chemical attributes (global warming potential) and reactivity of the components, the physical/
physiological effects of the pollutant on the receptors (eg. exposed population) and the duration of
exposure. On this basis, ambient air pollution earned its designation as a Group 1 carcinogen [19]
due to increased incidence of cancer from the biologically active particulates and toxic gases it
contains.
Many of the human health effects from ambient air pollution are chronic, resulting from early childhood
and/or long duration exposure. The mechanistic pathways and epidemiological risks have been well
studied and documented, particularly in the last two to three decades [19,20]. For the most part
however, revisions of national ambient air quality (NAAQ) limits locally have not incorporated the
current information that would offer adequate public health protection.
This study characterised the air pollution and assessed air quality trends by examining the factors
affecting the types and levels of pollutants at different locations over the 15-month period (March 2015
to May 2016). The analysis presented in this chapter is based on a doctoral study which used
pollutant and meteorological data from four field sampling stations to flag potential public health
issues and statistically validate a multiparameter air pollution index for T&T. Funding for this project
was obtained from a competitive fellowship grant from British Petroleum of Trinidad and Tobago
(BPTT) and the University of Trinidad and Tobago (UTT).
1.1 Literature Review

The WHO estimates that of all the air pollutants, fine airborne particulates (PM2.5) has the most impact
on human health. Worldwide, it is estimated to cause about 25% of lung cancer deaths, 8% of
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) deaths, and about 15% of ischaemic heart disease
and stroke [17,19]. Direct relationships between levels of fine (PM2.5) and respirable particulates
(PM10) to mortality rates in affected populations [1,11,21] have been well established. Supporting
scientific evidence indicates that besides worsening already existing health conditions in cardio-
2
vascular and respiratory disease patients [22], air pollution can precipitate asthmatic symptoms and
respiratory disease in otherwise healthy individuals[11,12,15].
Ambient air particulates can act as a medium of transport for myriad adsorbed organic and inorganic
chemicals, gases, trace metals, microscopic biologicals and viruses from various sources into the
body. Respirable particulates (PM10) containing contaminants can by-pass the natural defences of
the human respiratory system and enter the body through varied pathways, including inhalation.
Levels of exposure as well as the chemical nature and duration of exposure determine the ‘dose-
response’ relationship, hence the effects on human health. Pope et al. [14] found that the exposure–
response relationship associated with PM2.5 was qualitatively different for lung cancer versus
cardiovascular mortality. At low exposure levels, cardiovascular deaths were projected to account for
most of the burden of disease, whereas at high levels of PM2.5, lung cancer became proportionately
more important [19]. Trace metals entering the lungs through inhalation can cause harm to human
health both from their physical presence inside the lungs, obstructing gas exchange, and leaching of
adsorbed metals into the cells and bloodstream [23,24,25]. Mean annual levels of pollutants
calculated from T&T Environmental Management Authority (EMA’s) ambient air quality (AAQ)
monitoring stations at an industrial site (Pt. Lisas- 2008-2013) indicate levels of particulates that
exceed WHO [26] guidelines in 4 out of the six years analysed [27] (Table 1)
Table 1. Annual mean ambient air pollutant at Pt. Lisas (EMA's database) [27]
Year SO2 (ppb) NO2 (ppb) CO (ppm) O3 (ppb) PM10 (ug/m3)

2008 3.94 5.23 1.13 15.11 22.19
2009 2.32 4.12 0.38 11.50 23.20
2010 2.21 4.55 0.28 10.79 8.04
2011 1.66 4.15 0.26 11.51 45.24
2012 3.54 5.45 0.25 11.07 16.29
2013* 10.80 3.68 0.39 11.95 33.30
*2013 includes measurements for Mar, Apr, May only
A few trace elements are beneficial as micronutrients in low concentrations (eg. Cu, Mb, Zn, Fe) but
almost all have negative health impacts and become toxins over certain thresholds. Trace metals
include some particularly toxic elements eg. arsenic, cadmium and nickel which are human
genotoxins, causing cell mutation from contact with cells, regardless of concentration [28]. Physical
assessment of fine and respirable particulates to better estimate the ‘dose’ of trace metals from
inhalation exposure have shown that this depends on source contributions and size of PM which
carries it. In Detroit, Michigan [29], fine and ultrafine curbside particulates found most trace metals
were found in the 0.01-1.0 µm PM fraction, which has the longest atmospheric residence time (more
than 100 days) in ambient air.
Trace metals in particulates this size are frequently emitted from fossil fuel combustion processes
such vehicular and industrial emissions [20]. In this size range, the trace metals have increased
chemical reactivity owing to the size of nanoparticles on which they are adhered/adsorbed. The finer
the inhaled particulates, the better its ability to penetrate deeper into the lungs. Ecologically, trace
metal contamination can cause major disruption to the natural biogeochemical cycles by affecting the
micro-geochemistry of microbiota and plankton [30] and bioaccumulating in vegetation [31].
Regarding its impact on humans, trace metals in the body above toxic thresholds impact at the
cellular and metabolic levels.
In the Caribbean, a lot of the fine PM comes in from transboundary Sahara dust, which has a similar
trace metal composition to crustal dust, but may contain other contaminants [32,33] as well as from
vehicular and industrial emissions. Locally, high levels of Al, Fe, and Zn have been found in the
coastal and marine sediments off Port of Spain (T&T’s capital) (Al-39420 μg/g; Fe-45640 μg/g; Zn-245
μg/g), Point Lisas (Al-11936 μg/g; Fe-30171 μg/g; Zn-69 μg/g) and Caroni (Al-0400 μg/g; Fe-19000
μg/g; Zn-32 μg/g) [34]. Marine sediments and biota sampled from Trinidad’s west coast contained
levels of Cd, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in descending order that posed an ecological risk assessed from the
potential impact and mobility in the environment [35]. Few data exist for ambient air trace metals.
3
Toxicological and epidemiological research to establish toxicological and disease thresholds and
revise regulatory AAQ guidelines/standards that allow for the protection of public health have been
ongoing in some countries since international protections under variations of the Clean Air Act were
adopted [15,21,22]. This recognition of air quality as a concept, measurable by the levels of pollution
in the air, justified costly mitigation measures targeting specific pollutants and/or sectors in a bid to
reduce overall ambient air pollutant loadings.
Over the last few decades, several attempts have been made to describe the AAQ concept by
incorporating the levels of one or more of these pollutants into some kind of collated indicator value in
various ways, a few of which are outlined in Table 2.
Table 2. Comparison of Air Quality (Air Pollution) Indices (AQIs / APIs) [36]
AQI (Authority) Factors Approach

Coeff. of Haze (US) [37] SO2 and PM (smoke Weighted sum of two pollutants
shade)
Oak Ridge AQI [38] SO2, NO2, PM, CO, Weighted (ratio of observed pollutant to standard)
photochemical oxidants combination of 5 pollutants
Taiwan AQI [39] Statistical factor analysis approach for AQI. Authors compared the air quality
index based on factor analysis method and Pindex method. The ratings (or
trends) obtained by both these methods are exactly same, but the AQI based on
factor analysis shows a wider range—indicates it’s the superior approach
USEPA’S Pollution SO2, NO2, PM, CO, O3 Highest concentration of any ONE pollutant from
Standard Index (1999) group compared to its standard. Doesn’t consider
[40] synergistic effects of pollutants. Reported as separate
indices specific to each pollutant
API, Canada (pre-2007) Range from very good (0) to very poor (100), with 50 as the threshold
Air Quality Health Index O3, NO2, PM2.5 Sum of excess mortality risk from pollutants.
(AQHI), Canada [41] Calculated hourly based on 3-hr rolling average
Ministry of Environment, CO, NO2, Revamped AQI to incorporate pollutants monitoring in
Forestry & Climate PM10, PM2.5, SO2, O3, real time. The proposed API to adopt the HIGHEST
Change, India NH3 sub-index (specific pollutant concentration is related
[42] to “breakout values” obtained by comparison of
pollutant concentration and revised AQ regulatory
standards and/or any corroborated dose-response
relationship reported in the literature)
API in China [43] SO2, NO2, PM10 Uses HIGEST pollutant sub-index
with “breakout” values. 3 tiers
of regulatory AQ standards
[44] SO2, NO2, PM10 Compilation of equally weighted variables
normalised to target values
(from EU guidelines for compliance in 2022)
The composite index is useful as it incorporates complex data into in a single metric to ease the
‘understanding’ of and prompt swift action from regulators and persons who can be impacted.
Composite air pollution or air quality indices (APIs and AQIs) have been used for more than three
decades, particularly in industrial countries where regulatory management is closely intertwined with
public health protection. The specific combination of weighted (or unweighted) variables (averaged
over specific time frames e.g. 1-hr, 8-hr, 24-hr) varies by the state/country, directed by that country’s
own regulatory priorities and policies. There is some commonality regarding the pollutant factors
included in calculating an API, as it usually incorporates one or more primary (directly emitted) and/or
secondary pollutant (derived from chemical reactions with primary pollutants). Each method of
calculation has its merits and limitations.
2. METHODOLOGY
The metric for ‘measuring’ air quality is inextricably linked to the types and amounts of the pollutants
in the air at that given time and location, as much as it is the accuracy of the measurement methods
used. In this study, pollutant gases were measured using a GASMET DX 4015 Multicomponent
Portable Fourier Transform InfraRed Spectrometer, calibrated to ambient conditions. Spectral
4
Characterisation of Air Pollution on Trinidad’s North-West
North West Coast (San Fernando to Port
Port-of-Spain)
signatures were measured against manufacturer’s instrument library (CALCMET

CALCMET 2013) for chemical
spectral matches >99% [45]. Gas concentrations were measured in real time with a sampling interval
of 3 mins. Particulates were measured gravimetrically using a commercially available low volume (Q =
2.3 m3/hr) modular sampler (ISAP ISAP 1050e500) compliant with German/EU air quality control con
regulations for limit values and measurement engineering 2008/50/EC, BimSchV, EN 12341, EN
14907, EN 481, ISO 8756, TA Luft, VDI 2463 BI. 1+8 and VDI BI.2). Meteorological parameters
(relative
relative humidity, temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure,
pressure, wind speed and direction) were
measured using the compatible meteorological sensors for the gravimetric sampler. Meteorological
Meteorologic
and pollutant parameters were measured simultaneously at four sites classified as urban, rural,
industrial and mixed background
und over a minimum 24hr period once every 6th day from March 2015 to
May 2016 on Trinidad’s populous west coast.
Trace metals in the particulates were extracted from the quartz fibre filters by microwave digestion in
ultrapure nitric acid and analysed using ICP-MS
ICP -USEPA Methods 3501 and 6020A [46], following
recommended adjustments [47] during digestion for smaller acid volumes, longer digestion times and
decreased ratio of sample mass to acid volume for microwave digestion. An API was calculated and
statistically verified using pollutant daily averaged (24hr
24hr average) concentrations over fifteen months
of sampling on n Trinidad’s west coast following methodology outlined in [35].. Data collected were
analysed as daily averages because it was the smallest time unit for which gravimetrically measured
particulates were sampled. Trace metals were not analysed in real time and were not included in the
calculation of the API.
Sampling station locations are illustrated on the land use map featured as Fig.. 1 below.
Station 1 (San Fernando, located at -61.4409, 10.2891) – mixed background

Station 2 (Point Lisas, located at -61.4819, 10.3773) – industrial station
Station 3 (Port-of-Spain, located at -61.5226, 10.6583)- urban station
Station 4 (Waterloo, located at -61.4661, 10.4814) – rural station
Fig. 1.. Trinidad land use based on classification by [48] illustrating location of air pollution
monitoring stations (urban-JDTI,
(urban rural-Waterloo, industrial-Pt.
Pt. Lisas and mixed
background-SFTI)
Station 4 (Waterloo located at -61.4661, 10.4814)- rural station
5
3. RESULTS
3.1 Pollutant Levels
The pollutant levels measured during the study are listed as daily or annual means to conform with
reporting and comparison standards. Annual mean particulates measured at each station are listed as
well as the number of times the sampled data exceeded local and international standards.
Particulates measured at the urban and industrial stations (Port-of-Spain and Pt. Lisas respectively)
exceeded the WHO [26] annualised safe limit guidelines (PM2.5 is 10 µg/m3, PM10 is 20 µg/m3) over
70% of the time sampled, with annual means also exceeding the PM2.5 local Environmental
3
Management Authority’s limit value of 15 µg/m (Table ).
Table 3. Particulates -annual daily means and exceedances (EMA/WHO) at four stations
Station N PM1 / PM2.5 / PM10 / Number Exceedances (EMA/WHO)

3 3 3
µg/m µg/m µg/m Fine- (PM2.5) Respirable (PM10)
1: Mixed 44 6.54 12.93 33.34 10 / 23 9 / 29
2: Industrial 48 10.48 22.71 61.63 25 / 35 22 / 39
3: Urban 51 8.80 16.84 38.56 21 / 36 11 / 39
4: Rural 31 6.71 12.83 31.17 11 / 16 4 / 18
N= number of sampling events (24hr sample days) * PM sampler at WL operated during Oct ’15 to May ‘16
Table 4) indicate a range of pollutants, a few of which (NO2 and C6H6 being the most prolific) exceed
the EMA’s limit values outlined in Schedule-1 of the regulatory guidelines [49].
Table 4. Annualised mean daily concentrations (ppm) of gaseous pollutants at four stations
Annual Pollutant TT EMA AAQS MIXED BACK’D INDUSTRIAL URBAN RURAL

(ppm) 2014 - (ppm) Mean (S.E.) Mean (S.E.) Mean (S.E.) Mean (S.E.)
CO2 440.7 (28.23) 327.9 (39.4) 406.4 (56.9) 396.1 (82.4)
CO 8.73 1.76 (0.46) 2.27 (1.18) 2.54 (7.47) 0.41 (0.88)
CH4 1.72 (0.46) 2.62 (1.18) 2.58 (0.62) 1.94 (0.91)
N2O 0.37 (0.26) 0.29 (0.18) 0.39 (0.40) 0.29 (0.13)
NO2 0.106 0.114 (0.18) 0.334 (0.38) 0.18 (0.69) 0.12 (0.2)
NH3 0.072 <0.13 0.137 (0.13) <0.13 0.145 (0.29)
SO2 0.047 0.001 (0.01) 0.00 (0.016) 0.016 (0.05) 0.008 (0.07)
CH3OH 1.48 (3.76) 1.50 (6.63) 1.98 (5.46) <0.62
NOX 0.114 (0.18) 20.67 (142.1) 0.197 (0.74) 0.120 (0.20)
TOC 0.922 (0.25) 23.79 (6.85) 1.37 (0.35) 1.03 (0.49)
Ozone 0.05 0.01 (0.045)
Benzene 1.74 (1.48) 1.87 (3.90) 2.44 (3.29) <0.60
Carbon disulphide 0.1 1.46 (2.66) 3.34 (18.45) 1.17 (2.45) 2.02 (5.56)
Ethyl benzene 0.23 <0.78 <0.78 15.77 (8.97) 0.86 (3.51)
Methyl mercaptan 0.01 0.543 (1.51) 0.202 (0.49) 0.595 (1.61) 0.004 (0.03)
3
Furan 0.05pgTEQ /m 2.302 (6.19) 2.057 (5.19) 1.619 (5.02) 1.162 (1.85)
m-Xylene 0.53 0.033 (0.17) 0.09 (0.43) 0.025 (0.026) 0.033 (0.22)
* BDL values are listed as <BDL value
3.2 Trace Metals

Only a few countries outside of Europe and Canada have updated AAQ guidelines that span a wide
suite of organic/inorganic chemicals and trace metals in ambient air within the last decade, e
consistent with published epidemiological and toxicologic data. In this study, trace metal
concentrations in PM10 were compared to Canadian AAQ standards which were revised in 2012 to
incorporate the current scientific information to allow for the protection of public health [3]. Six of the
trace metals analysed; Be, Cd, Cr, Fe, Mn and Ni; were found to occur at concentrations which
exceeded the Canadian AAQ limits at least once during the study.
6
Levels of trace metals were calculated as concentrations in PM10 (Table 5). Means were analysed as
daily averages over two month period timeframes to depict macro temporal trends in concentrations
throughout the study [50]. Notably, concentrations of the metals that were in exceedance were not
uniformly distributed at all the stations. The implication is that the source(s) of the spiked levels for
these are likely local, and not the result of transboundary Sahara dust which would tend to manifest
more uniformly over the island.
Beryllium (Be) occurred predominantly in the coarse PM fraction (PM2.5-10) with the highest
concentrations measured at the mixed background site (Fig. 2). Likely it originated from localised
resuspension of excavated material from construction works at the nearby mall (the carpark was
being extended) at that time.
Cadmium (Cd) (notably highest at the rural site only within a limited time) likely reflects an irregular
occurrence. Its predominance in fine PM (Fig. 3) hints at anthropogenic origin and is concerning as it
is a genotoxic carcinogen with an indeterminate source (possibly as a consequence of a bush fire
incinerating vegetation containing bioaccumulated trace metals) that occurred during the time of
sampling). This therefore warrants further investigation.
Chromium (Cr), with only two measured exceedances both at the industrial site, is of public health
concern as it occurs predominantly in the finest PM fraction (PM1) and is carcinogenic (Fig. 4). It is a
frequent component of cooling water as well as raw material in industrial steel making, catalyst in
industrial processes and rust-proof coating products, all industries found in the vicinity of industrial
sampling station.
Iron (Fe) recorded exceedances at all four stations. Concentrations were consistently high at the Pt.
Lisas station for the entire duration of the study, peaking in June-July ’15 and February-March ’16,
falling off in concentration, but still exceeding the limit (4µg/m3) for safe public health exposure [3].
Iron is ubiquitous in the environment, however, being a natural crustal element and having multiple
sources; including from natural erosion, local iron and steel smelting industries and transboundary
Sahara dust, high concentrations spread across varied PM size fractions were found as expected
(Fig. 5).
Manganese (Mn) had exceedances at all four stations, but at a higher frequency at the industrial
sampling site, particularly during periods June-July ’15 and February-March ’16. The highest mean
concentrations of the element were measured at the industrial station during June-July ’15. Most of it
occurs in the coarse PM (PM2.5-10) (Fig. 6), pointing to localised possible sources including as raw
material inputs for the nearby iron and steel processing plants and the cement factories. The urban
sources are significant and contribute to relatively high concentrations as well, notably in June-July
’15 and December ’15- January ’16. These coincide with the seasonal transition months so there may
be a linkage with the prevailing wind and overcast/precipitation conditions at Port-of-Spain during that
time.
Nickel (Ni) is of most concern as a threat to public health. Five exceedances were recorded during
sampling, most at the industrial site. It is predominantly used in alloy and steel making. Most of the
nickel measured during exceedances were recorded with elevated levels of Ni in the fine PM fraction
(PM2.5) (Fig. 7), the dominant form this element was found in ambient air during this study. Enrichment
in the fine fraction at the rural station, indicating a possible common source (incineration of vegetation
with bioaccumulated trace metals) for both the Cd and Ni contamination at the rural station during
Dec’15-Jan’16 period. Nickel and Cr also show similar peaks in the PM1 fraction at the industrial
station, indicating a source separate from the one(s) influencing the levels at the rural site. The
genotoxicity of Ni and its predominance in the fine PM requires that action be taken to regulate the
emission source(s) for this pollutant in the atmosphere to prevent unnecessary harmful inhalation
exposure to this carcinogen.
7
Table 5. Frequency of Exceedances -trace metals in PM10(µg/m3) cf. Canadian AAQ (Ontario-
MoE 2012)
Station – Trace Period AAQ Standard MEAN Conc. MAX Conc. Number
3 3
Metal (in PM10) (µg/m ) (µg/m ) Exceedances
1 -Mixed Be Dec’15-Jan’16 0.7199 0.71991 1
background
4 - Rural Cd Dec’15-Jan’16 0.01 0.0780 0.2887 1
2 - Industrial Cr Aug-Sep’15 0.5 0.5087 1.3739 2
1 - Mixed Fe Apr-May’15 4 4.8475 9.7724 4
background Jun-Jul’15 5.9872 10.0369 3
Oct-Nov’15 2.1701 4.9123 1
Feb-Mar ‘16 5.0062 9.7566 2
Apr-May ‘16 3.5332 5.6462 3
2 - Industrial Fe Apr-May’15 4 7.7154 12.3976 8
Jun-Jul’15 14.5964 23.6514 6
Aug-Sep’15 7.8894 13.8671 1
Oct-Nov’15 4.2179 8.5112 2
Dec’15-Jan’16 4.3730 6.3711 1
Feb-Mar ‘16 9.7600 30.3154 5
Apr-May ‘16 3.0583 5.9493 3
3 - Urban Fe Apr-May’15 4 4.4481 7.4274 5
Jun-Jul’15 5.2448 7.7434 5
Oct-Nov’15 2.4042 5.7618 1
Dec’15-Jan’16 5.8757 10.5179 1
Feb-Mar ‘16 4.5732 9.8423 3
Apr-May ‘16 3.4882 6.6554 2
4 - Rural Fe Dec’15-Jan’16 4 3.0005 5.1647 1
Feb-Mar ‘16 4.0983 8.3438 5
Apr-May ‘16 2.5697 5.8767 2
1 - Mixed Mn Apr-May’15 0.2 0.1029 0.2096 1
background Jun-Jul’15 0.1335 0.5216 1
Feb-Mar ‘16 0.0230 0.8613 2
2 - Industrial Mn Apr-May’15 0.2 0.1541 0.2659 2
Jun-Jul’15 0.3189 0.5216 4
Aug-Sep’15 0.1722 0.3599 1
Oct-Nov’15 0.1169 0.2062 1
Feb-Mar ‘16 0.2897 0.8613 5
3 - Urban Mn Jun-Jul’15 0.2 0.2125 0.9536 1
Dec’15-Jan’16 0.2663 0.2663 1
Feb-Mar ‘16 0.1218 0.2697 1
4 - Rural Mn Feb-Mar ‘16 0.2 0.1250 0.2523 3
2 - Industrial Ni Jun-Jul’15 0.1 0.0706 0.1481 1
Aug-Sep’15 0.2884 0.8237 1
Feb-Mar ‘16 0.0711 0.3411 1
3 - Urban Ni Jun-Jul’15 0.1 0.0594 0.1804 1
4 - Rural Ni Feb-Mar ‘16 0.1 0.0311 0.1149 1
*Means per period that were over the Standard are highlighted in bold font
8
Fig. 2. Beryllium: Concentration profiles in the three PM fractions (profile comparison - urban
(JD), industrial (PL), mixed background (SF) and rural (WL)). AAQ Standard- 0.01μg/m3 [3]
Fig. 3. Cadmium: Concentration profiles in three PM fractions (profile comparison -urban (JD),
3
industrial (PL), mixed background (SF) and rural (WL). AAQ Standard-0.025μg/m [3]
Fig. 4. Chromium: Concentration profiles in three PM fractions (profile comparison - urban

3
(JD), industrial (PL), mixed background (SF) and rural (WL). AAQ Standard- 0.5μg/m [3]
9
Fig. 5. Iron: Concentration profiles in three PM fractions (profile comparison - urban (JD),
industrial (PL), mixed background (SF) and rural (WL). AAQ Standard -4.0μg/m3 [3]
Fig. 6. Manganese: Concentration profiles in three PM fractions (profile comparison - urban

(JD), industrial (PL), mixed background (SF) and rural (WL). AAQ Standard 0.2μg/m3 [3]
Fig. 7.2 Nickel: Concentration profiles in three PM fractions (profile comparison - urban (JD),
3
industrial (PL), mixed background (SF) and rural (WL). AAQ Standard 0.1μg/m [3]
10
Nickel (Ni) is of most concern as a threat to public health. Five exceedances were recorded during
sampling, most at the industrial site. It is predominantly used in alloy and steel making. Most of the
nickel measured during exceedances were recorded with elevated levels of Ni in the fine PM fraction
(PM2.5) (Fig. 7), the dominant form this element was found in ambient air during this study. It peaked
in the same PM fraction at the rural station, indicating a possible common source for both the Cd and
Ni contamination at the rural station during Dec’15-Jan’16 period. Nickel and Cr also show similar
peaks in the PM1 fraction at the industrial station, indicating a source separate from the one(s)
influencing the levels at the rural site. The genotoxicity of Ni and its predominance in the fine PM
requires that action be taken to regulate the emission of this pollutant in the atmosphere to prevent
unnecessary harmful inhalation exposure to this carcinogen.
3.3 Air Pollution Index
T&T recently adopted the USEPA’s AIRNOW system to collate air pollution data from multiple
monitoring stations and output a value for air quality. This is commendable and represents progress
in the management of air pollution. However, air quality is quoted per pollutant, meaning, air quality
may be good for fine particulates but unhealthy for ozone levels. This can facilitate comparisons with
other countries using a similar system but cannot convey meaningful information to the public for
understanding air quality when air pollution is a mixture of a wide range of substances [36].
The development of a multi-variable algorithm producing a single unitless metric for capturing air
quality has remained elusive locally, but it is a common enough approach used around the world to
calculate APIs [44,40,51]. The methodology followed [52] for compilation and validation of the
composite index entailed the systematic process of collating and condensing the field data (real time
measurements only), statistically extracting the underlying factors and weighting coefficients and
compilation of these factors into the well segregated categories of the index. However, this study
went a step further by validating the composite index via regression of calculated results with actual
field measurements as proof, providing statistical rigour and validation to the Air Pollution Index
algorithm formulated [36]. Two algorithms were developed, one utilising fewer parameters than the
other, though representing less of the variance.
Exploratory factor analysis extracted five factors explaining 81.8% of the variance (Table 6) in the air
pollution inputs (particulates and pollutant gases), collected over the 15 - month study. The five
factors were named based on subjective association to non-definitive source(s). The largest factor
(Factor 1 -26.3%), combustion products, could possibly be attributed to traffic and industrial
emissions. Fine and respirable dust comprise the second factor, explaining 16% of the variance with
various possible sources. Factor 3 consist of light volatile organic compounds likely coming from
pipeline leaks, fugitive emissions and breakdown products from petrochemical and natural gas
consumption. Factor 4 is possibly due to output from industrial, vehicular and agricultural sources and
Factor 5 from industrial emissions.
Table 6. Exploratory factor analysis of criteria pollut ants and air toxics (API-11)
Factors (81.8%) Variables Loadings

Factor 1- 26.3% Combustion Products CO 0.930,
(Stacks, Traffic) N2O 0.889
NO2 0.918
Factor 2 –18.5% Dust PM Fine (PM2.5) 0.970
PM Respirable (PM10) 0.973
Factor 3 -16.3% VOCs (Traffic, CH4 0.919
Petrochemicals, Natural Gas) CH3OH 0.929
Factor 4- 10.6% CO2 0.646
NH3 0.814
Factor 5- 10.1% SO2 (Stacks) SO2 0.850
H2O 0.450
The Air Pollution Index scores were classified by examining a histogram of the scores to look for
natural breaks in frequency, which were used as the classification boundaries. The API -11 is
11
separated into four (4) classes over its score range from 19.18 – 85.98; Low (0-23), Normal (>23-30),
High (>30-40) and Very High (>40-100). For API-6 (range 9.44 - 93.72) three classes were chosen,
low Normal (<20), high Normal (>20-30) and High (>30) for ease of separation and where there were
natural breaks. Two APIs were developed, API-11 and API-6, one a simple subset of the other
calculated by truncation of the co-linear variables through stepwise regression, reducing the input
variable to 6 from 11.
The classification systems were tested statistically to determine its veracity using discriminant
analysis. This allowed a cross validation of the selected classes with those estimated by the
discriminant function(s). The validity of the classification boundaries used for both indices was tested
using canonical discriminant functions (SPSS v.22) for cross validation in each scheme. Three
discriminant functions accurately classified 82.7% of the original (83.5% of the cross-validated) data
values for API (11). For API (6) classification boundaries, the discriminant functions, based on the
variables in the index correctly classified 84.9% (83.5%) of the data. The ‘discriminating’ variables in
the regression analysis were found to be PM2.5, CO2, and CH3OH, which were also the same three
variables that are the most impactful.
This approach allowed only variables which contributed uniquely in the model to be retained. The
regression procedure stops when all significant, non-redundant variables (as determined by
acceptable collinearity statistics) are entered into the model. The regression solution accommodated
94.4% of the variance in the 11-variable Air Pollution Index API-11, is captured by just six variables in
API-6. The truncated algorithm for API-6 was derived by applying the regression. The weights for
these six variables in API-11 is multiplied by the respective regression coefficients from Table . The
variable weights for the algorithm for this new index -API-6, is also given in Table 7. Comparison of
the two indices indicate that API-6 represents 94.4% of the variability of API-11 with its 6-variable
input, thus making it an acceptable substitute for the higher input variable index.
Validation of the index comes with the consistency of classification as outlined in the above section,
as well as its ‘goodness of fit’ to the observed data. This second tier of validation was tested using
General Linear Model (GLM) analysis. The GLM analysis for API-11 and API-6 yielded robust
2 2 2 2
models indicated by the high R squared values, R =0.901 (R Adj-0.866) and R =0.902 (R Adj -0.867)
respectively, indicating an excellent fit to the pollutant dataset. Noteworthy was that the
2
daily averaged meteorological conditions did not factor significantly, as the R Adj for API-11 and
2
API-6 were close to the R values for the respective index models, indicating very little variance
inflation.
Table 7. Air pollution index (API 11 & API-6)- variables and weights
Index variables (Pollutants) API-11 Weights API-6 Weights

(factor score coeff. X factor variance)
H2O 0.047
CO2 0.053 0.025
CO 0.102 0.111
CH4 0.070 -0.468
N2O 0.122
NO2 0.092
NH3 0.114 2.016
SO2 0.122
CH3OH 0.104 0.203
PM Fine (PM2.5) 0.138 0.689
PM Respirables (PM10) 0.140
The multiparameter approach has more intuitive logic as air quality is affected by a slew of pollutants,
not one at a time, and has implications for communicating actionable public health information. It is
anticipated that this approach to calculating and reporting air quality will be incorporated into the
arsenal of the local advisory and regulatory agencies and used in conjunction with the USEPA’s
AIRNOW system for assessment and dissemination of information on the air quality.
12
4. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH

The data presented in this study indicates that there are significant differences as well as areas of
overlap in the air quality challenges at each of the sites examined, indicating that approaches to curb
ambient air pollution need to be tailored to regulation of the sources pertinent to the different land use
areas. The levels of pollution were found to be of concern to public health, but not everywhere, or all
at the same time. It appears obvious that the present scientific information on the risks to health and
the impacts of air pollution are well known and documented for pollutant levels way below some of the
limit values outlined in our current regulatory structure – the EMA’s Air Pollution Rules. These limit
values require updating and revised limit values allocated to allow for better protection of public
health.
o Curbing fine and respirable particulates would address the largest factor impacting air quality.
o Spikes in trace metals were noted at specific stations, and not uniformly across all stations.
This indicates local factors accounting for the spikes and not the mesoscale effects of
transboundary Sahara dust
o San Fernando (Station 1: mixed background AAQ station) had a low particulate loading (fine
and respirable) but average values still exceeded international guidelines for the protection of
public health. Gaseous pollutants were similar to those at measured at the urban station,
indicating that traffic emissions are a major source of pollution. The time of year, specifically
the Sahara dust influx, is the main meteorological phenomenon affecting air quality at this
site.
o Be- concentrated in coarse PM (PM2.5 -10) with a single exceedance. Levels of some concern
to the population in vicinity of the San Fernando Technical Institute due to volume of human
exposure
o Point Lisas (Station 2: industrial AAQ station) had the highest particulate loading, with a high
proportion of fine particulates in the ambient air. Levels of benzene and nitrogen dioxide were
in frequent exceedance of international guidelines for the protection of public health. The high
levels of nitrogen dioxide measured are a strong indicator of the amounts of fossil fuel
combustion emissions that are released here and may be the most appropriate target to
improve the air quality here. Contamination is influenced by both the transboundary Sahara
dust as well as emissions from the surrounding industries on the industrial estate and
downwind of the monitoring station (the dominant wind direction is south east). Trace metal
contamination was evident, with high levels of Ni (a genotoxic carcinogen) in the fine
particulates which poses a public health threat. It should be noted that the AAQ sampling
station was located at the southern periphery of the industrial estate and did not reflect the
AAQ inside the industrial estate (located upwind of the monitoring station). Ideally, ambient
air quality should be monitored inside the industrial estate to track the effectiveness of any
source emission control strategies implemented to regulate the industrial emissions.
o Cr- enriched in the fine PM, highest at industrial site with two exceedances. Carcinogenic so
no ‘safe’ levels of exposure
o Ni- predominance in the fine PM, genotoxic carcinogen, with several exceedances at the
industrial station. Poses a public health risk
o Port-of-Spain (Station 3: urban station) had high levels of fine and respirable particulates,
peaking in June-July ’15- the height of the Sahara Dust influx, and in October-November ’15
as contaminants tend to stagnate and recirculate in the urban centre. The wind field is very
wide and shift trajectories regularly, mixing vehicular emissions with landfill emissions, with
superimposed influences from Sahara dust influx. The AAQ at this site has several
influencing environmental and meteorological factors and should be monitored on an ongoing
basis because of the high population density in the urban centre. Steps should be taken to
minimise the traffic in and around the city to decrease one contributing aspect of the air
pollution in the city.
o Waterloo (Station 4: rural station) had average levels of fine and respirable particulates which
exceeded international guidelines for the protection of public health. Gaseous contaminants
were generally not an issue at this site, but levels of Cd in the fine PM were higher than at any
other station. Cadmium is genotoxic carcinogen and the source of this contamination needs
to be investigated and resolved. Residual contamination is the major environmental factor
influencing the AAQ at this site.
13
o Cd- concentrated in fine PM, highest in rural site with a single exceedance. Uptake into the
body usually from inhalation. It is a genotoxic carcinogen. Levels can be of concern to public
health
o Fe- ubiquitous, frequently exceeds the Canadian (Ontario) 2012 standards everywhere,
multiple sources and found in all PM fractions
o Mn- found in all PM fractions, several exceedances at the industrial site, poses a health risk
due to frequency of exceedance
o Air pollution in the urban areas tend to be due to traffic emissions. Poor air quality at the
industrial areas are mainly due to industrial emission.
o Several gaseous pollutants of concern were found to be in exceedance (CO, NH3, NO2, N2O,
C6H6). Nitrogen dioxide and benzene were the most prolific, being the highest at the urban
station, particularly in October-November ’15.
o Overall reduction of fine particulates in the ambient air would have the most impact in
reducing negative health effects on the exposed public.
o There has to be an active campaign to revise the local air pollution regulations to provide for
the protection of human health justified by the considerable wealth of scientific information
available on the thresholds and ill effects of various ambient air pollutants.
o Linkages between the work among organisations and researchers on the marine, coastal and
riverine systems in Trinidad and Tobago and the air quality should be investigated to trace the
sink and source of contaminants and biogeochemical cycling in order to restrict further
ecosystem damage.
o Algorithms for two air pollution indices were proposed elucidated from statistically derived
algorithms comprised of several weighted pollutant variables. API-11 and API-6 incorporate
11 and 6 different pollutants which contribute to a computing a single unitless metric to rate
the pollution loading (and therefore the air quality) of the ambient air. The indices are robust
and validated from the field data collected (R2 >0.9). This index (either of the two) is ready to
be implemented within the current framework of the AIRNOW system that the EMA currently
uses to report air quality indices for each individual pollutant parameter. The real time
pollution measurements via the single metric API can be made available to the public on
social and digital media platforms, eg. the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
website, the EMA’s website, the news programs, accompanied by advisories for the public for
the protection of public health.
o The continuous assessment of air quality in Trinidad and Tobago is essential to the
management of air pollution in our country. Directed management strategies have to be
implemented to address the locally generated pollution to safeguard public health as well as
to decrease the levels of greenhouse gases that is contributed to the atmosphere. Current
legislation and regulatory framework provide adequately for neither and need revision based
on best available information and practices.
o The baseline pollutant levels measured in this study allow us to have a benchmark for
reference and comparison to allow measurement of the effectiveness of the management
strategies.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Research and costs associated with this study was funded by BPTT in conjunction with the University
of Trinidad and Tobago under the BPTT PhD Research Fellowship programme.
COMPETING INTERESTS
Authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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studies in Trinidad and Tobago. Journal of Applied Statistics. 2018;45(3):508-527.
17
Characterisation of Air Pollution on Trinidad’s North-West
North West Coast (San Fernando to Port
Port-of-Spain)
Biography of author(s)
Dr. Himawatee Baboolal

As an environmental scientist, she has spent her entire career in cross discipline environmental research. She
he has worked from
the ground up as a technician at the Institute of Marine Affairs, to her recent position as BpTT/UTT PG Research Fellow. She
has been formally trained in epidemiology, analytical chemistry, micro-biology,
micro biology, environmental management systems, toxicology
and ecology. Her areas of expertise are indoor, outdoor and industrial air quality/pollution assessment and modeling,
modeling statistical
data analysis and environmental impact assessment. She grew up in south Trinidad where she attended Iere High School and
Siparia Senior Comprehensive School. She holds two bachelor of science degrees, BSc. Botany and Zoology (1997 (1997-UWI) and
BSc. Occupational Health and Safety (2010-
(2010 University of Greenwich). In 1999, she was the national awardee of the BGTT
1999/2000 British Council/University of Strathclyde international scholarship to pursue a master’s degree in Environmental
Science, graduating
uating with distinction. Her current research has been accomplished under the BPTT/UTT PhD Environmental
Research Fellowship programme. As a researcher, she has worked in many different wet, dry, swampy, pristine and not so
pristine places on projects in the
he Nariva, Godineau and Caroni Swamps, the Beetham and Forres Park Landfills, the fishing
communities from Ortoire to Guayaguayare and a series of consultancy projects at public and private sector entities. Her
functions have included source funding, project
project scope & design, collection and analysis of complex data, authorship of
technical/scientific reports and data-supported
supported policy recommendations for public sector outreach and management.
management She is an
enthusiastic supporter of using science and data-driven
data decision making for sensible policy generation.
Dr. Derrick Balladin

He obtained Doctorate degreeee in Analytical Chemistry and Masters degree in Chemical Engineering/Analytical Chemistry from
the University of the West Indies, St Augustine Campus, Trinidad W.I; Post-Doctorate
Post in Renewable Energy. He also is a
Chartered Chemist and Chartered Scientistt and a member of the international and prestigious Royal Society of Chemistry. He
has published numerous papers in international and local journals on the Enzyme Application, Development of Biosensors,
Extraction and Evaluation of Natural Products, Solar Energy and its application (Post(Post- Doctoral studies), in the area of
Chemometrics and nd Environmental, Health and Safety. He has lectured extensively to under-graduate
graduate chemistry students in
Analytical Chemistry and Organic, Physical and Inorganic Chemistry at The University of the West Indies (Cave Hill Campus).
At the Post-graduate level, he lectured Toxicology and the Measuring and Monitoring courses. He is currently the Co-ordinator
Co
and Associate Professor in the Environmental Studies Programme – Masters in Environmental Sciences and Management at
the University of Trinidad and Tobago. At At UTT he teaches, Environmental Chemistry; Pollution Management I & II;
Environmental Impact Assessment; Environmental Monitoring and co-supervise
co supervise the final Programme projects. He was very
pivotal in the foundational work required for the Accreditation of the Analytical Chemistry, Microbiology and Toxicology
Tox
Laboratories at the IMA. He has extensive training in Estimating Uncertainties for Chemical Analysis {NIST,USA}; Laboratory
Quality Management and Effective Internal Auditing of Laboratories {LabQual Training
Training Services, UK} and in the Smithsonian
Institute Environmental Leadership programme. He has a vast expanse of industrial, research and consultancy experience,
having served in many local Analytical Chemistry, Environmental testing service providers, such as – Institute of Marine Affairs,
CARIRI, and Kaizen Environmental Services (Trinidad) Ltd.
_________________________________________________________________________________
© Copyright (2021):
): Author(s).
Author The licensee is the publisher (Book Publisher International).
DISCLAIMER
This chapter is an extended version of the article published by the same author(s) in the following journal.
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Protection 7(10): 120-135, 2019 and 8:161-181, 2020
18
Chapter 2
Critical Study on a Reclaimed Wastewater Allocation

Optimization Model for Agricultural Irrigation
Ahmed A. Aljanabi1, Larry W. Mays2* and Peter Fox2
ABSTRACT
Climate change, pollution, civil conflicts, political instability, and a high rate of population growth all
contribute to water shortages in Iraq which are predicted to increase in the future. Due to the
importance of agriculture in Iraq which forms more than 75 percent of total demand, a sustainable
agricultural water allocation scheme is necessary to find practical and applicable water conservation
measures that helps mitigate the impact of potential droughts and water shortages. An agricultural
irrigation reclaimed wastewater allocation optimization model was developed to optimally allocate
crops and reclaimed wastewater (RW) on cultivated farmlands in order to maximize the net benefit.
The optimization model is formulated using mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) solved by
the branch and reduce optimization navigator (BARON) in the general algebraic mathematical solver
(GAMS). The model maximizes the net farm income to determine the cultivated crop assigned to each
farmland using three types of reclaimed wastewater (RW); tertiary treated wastewater; secondary
treated wastewater; and primary treated wastewater. Constraints in the optimization model include:
(1) reclaimed wastewater availability constraints and (2) irrigated farmlands constraints. The
optimization model has been applied to 7045 hectares of farms located in the Alrustumia district to the
5 3
south east of Baghdad, Iraq with 5.5 × 10 m /d of treated wastewater. In addition, the available wide
range of selected crops considering RW type A offered the model a flexibility in selecting the highest
economic crops to satisfy the maximum limit of the allowable cultivated area by each crop. The use of
tertiary treated wastewater provided the greatest net benefit under most scenarios evaluated while
primary effluent provided the lowest net benefit as only low value crops could be cultivated.
Keywords: Optimization; agriculture; water allocation; reclaimed wastewater; irrigation.
1. INTRODUCTION
Water scarcity in Iraq is between truth and fiction. For thousands of years, Iraq has been known as
Mesopotamia with abundant water from the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers available for the Fertile
Crescent. The Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers have experienced a significant reduction in their
annual transboundary water flow since 1999. In 1998, the International Water Management Institute
(IWMI) addressed Iraq as one of the critical water scarce countries [1]. Most of Iraq’s water is
transboundary water. The Euphrates River gets 88 percent of its water from Turkey and 9 percent
from Syria. While 56 percent of the Tigris River water is from Turkey and 12 percent is from Iran.
Those two rivers also experience significant water demands before they cross the Iraqi border. United
Nations (UN), [2] reported that the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers will be completely dry by 2040 [3].
More severe shortages in surface water resources are projected as flow in Iraq’s rivers decreases and
demands increase in Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq along with the uncertainty associated with climate
change. A water shortage in Iraq is an expected consequence due to the 50% or greater decline in
transboundary water supplies from Turkey and Iran [4], as shown in Fig. 1.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Former, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.
2
School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: mays@asu.edu;
Critical Study on a Reclaimed Wastewater Allocation Optimization Model for Agricultural Irrigation
Water shortage forms a significant concern in Iraq that should be evaluated precisely. The previously
mentioned factors have left negative impacts on the infrastructures, economy, and renewable water
resources. Iraq experiences both water quality and quantity problems that are not being addressed by
water resources management and thereby adversely affect the agricultural sector especially in the
southern provinces downstream Baghdad. For instance, due to the water shortage in 2007-2009,
there was a severe decline in agricultural productivity along the Tigris and Euphrates river basins [5].
Crop production was reduced to one half of its usual rate of production and many farmers abandoned
their agricultural lands. Consequently, agricultural crops, meats and many other related products are
currently imported into Iraq resulting in elevated costs to consumers [6]. It has been projected that
water scarcity may influence the relationship among Iraq’s southern provinces due to their total
reliance on agriculture.
3
Fig. 1. Annual renewable water resources in MENA countries (m /capita/yr) [4]
Agricultural irrigation is the major consumptive use of water in many regions around the world and
there is significant interest to optimize water use to maximize its economic outcomes and avoid water
scarcity [7]. In Iraq, agricultural water demand forms more than 75 percent of total demand [8].
Agricultural ecosystems are the principal suppliers of food, but they are also the main users of water
resources on a global level [9,10,11].
Rapid and comprehensive solutions must be considered to provide sustainable and reliable water
resources which also meet quality standards. An integrated agricultural irrigation water management
system requires a robust infrastructure to assure sustainability to avoid recent and future expected
water shortages in Iraq. This may be achieved fairly allocating water for agricultural among farmlands.
Many integrated water allocation systems have been practiced in many regions around the world
which have an obvious role in balancing agricultural demand with other demands with positive
economic and societal impacts. Thus, it is of great significance to take land use as a critical factor
along with water allocation in river basins.
The practice of wastewater reuse in many regions around the world has bloomed due to the lack of
fresh water sources. Reusing wastewater has gained an increased acceptance among people around
the world as a reliable alternative and sustainable source of water for many applications. A high
demand for agriculture along with proximity to wastewater treatment plants make reuse of wastewater
for agriculture logical in many cases. Other uses for treated wastewater include environmental
20
restoration, toilet flushing, cars washes, cooling towers and various industrial uses are practiced today
in almost all arid and semi-arid regions all over the world. Consequently, wastewater treatment
technologies have been developed accordingly to satisfy the quality standards required for different
uses. Therefore, the traditional impression and concerns about wastewater reuse due to its low quality
has changed. Wastewater reuse has been practiced in many applications and has even been
integrated into drinking water supplies through groundwater recharge and indirect potable reuse.
In the Middle East, there has been a significant increase in reuse of wastewater as an alternative and
reliable water resource. However, Iraq has not implemented planned wastewater reuse even though
6 3
Baghdad produces more than 1.0 × 10 m of treated wastewater that is discharged to the Tigris River
after secondary treatment. Iraq’s renewable water supply comes primarily from the Tigris and the
Euphrates Rivers, groundwater sources, rainwater harvesting, and limited desalination plants. Over
the recent history, Iraq has been suffering a lot from political instability which has reflected negatively
on its economic stability.
About 8 million hectares is the agricultural area in Iraq, which forms 70% of the total cultivated area.
About 40% - 50% of this area is irrigable and is located along river basins while the remainder is rain
feed and is in the northeastern plains and mountain valleys [12]. The irrigated area is mainly supplied
by water from the main rivers, and only 7% of the area is supplied by ground water [13]. Due to fallow
practices and the unstable political situation, only 3 to 5 million hectares are now cultivated annually.
In 1993, the estimated cultivated land were only 3.73 million hectares of which 3.46 and 0.27 million
hectares consisted of annual and permanent crops respectively [14]. In 2014, the World Bank
estimated the cultivated farmland area in Iraq is about 9.27 × 106 hectares (World Bank, 2017).
Although Iraq’s agricultural water demand is predicted to decrease by 55 percent by 2030 if irrigation
is modernized, agriculture will still be the largest user of water going into the future [15]. At the same
time, the demands for municipal, industrial and tourism are predicted to increase, leading to an
increase of the total water demand in the future. Wastewater reuse should be a primary player to
mitigate water shortages for irrigation purposes. This is particularly true since agricultural lands south
of Baghdad that have been deserted could be reliably irrigated with wastewater.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Developing an integrated reclaimed wastewater allocation optimization model for agricultural irrigation
purpose is crucial in water scarce regions to mitigate water shortages, to control water wastage, and
to maximize agricultural net benefit. This topic has led many researchers to focus on the development
of agricultural irrigation models that consider economics, regional water resource allocation, and/or to
test new water appropriation rules and policies [16]. A Computer Aided and Management Simulation
of Irrigation Systems model (CAMSIS) to simulate farm income was developed [17]. The model
applied different water allocation rules and polices under water shortage or drought scenarios in East
Africa. Paul et al. [18] developed a multi-level approach to solve problems related to seasonal and
intra-seasonal agricultural irrigation water allocation in a semiarid region of Punjab, India. The
approach considers the competition of the crops for irrigation water and farmed area. Dynamic
programming approaches were developed to optimize irrigation scheduling [19,20]. An agricultural
water allocation system (SAWAS) model was developed by Salman et al. [21] to be used as a
decision-making tool for planners of agricultural production on both local and regional levels adopting
an agricultural water allocation system model using linear programming. The model is based on the
analysis of inter-seasonal irrigation water allocation and their effects on the net farm income. An
agricultural irrigation water allocation optimization model was presented by Shangguan et al. [22]
using multiple water resources allocation. The model shows that the obstacles in using dynamic
programming with multiple dimensions could be overcome. Brown, et al. [23] developed an
AQUARIUS model to evaluate temporal and spatial allocation of flows among competing water uses
in a river. A stochastic dynamic programming optimization model was developed by Ghahraman and
Sepaskhah [24] which optimizes the agricultural water allocation to a predetermined multiple cropping
pattern in Iran. Álvarez et al. [25] described the MOPECO model for irrigation water management in a
semi-arid area of Spain and drew a conclusion that the irrigation depth for maximum benefits is lower
than that necessary to obtain maximum production.
21
Georgiou and Papamichail [26] developed a non-linear programming optimization model to maximize
the total farm income using an integrated soil water balance. The model was applied on the Havrias
River in Northern Greece to determine the optimal reservoir releases, the water allocation for irrigation
purposes, and the optimal cropping pattern for irrigated farmlands. An irrigation scheduling problem
was evaluated using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) [27]. Solving the same problem, the powerful role of
using a GA was demonstrated in comparison to the use of an integer programing. A methodology was
proposed by Sadegh et al. [28] based on Shapely games to be used in water resources allocation
among different users for the Karoon River basin in Iran with the goal of developing an equity
standard to increase the total net benefit of the system. Simultaneous irrigation scheduling was
evaluated using a GA comparing the stream tube model with the time block model [29]. A stochastic
nonlinear programming model with multiple objectives was used by You et al. [30] to aid in multi-
objective decision-making considering the Heihe River as a case study. An Inexact Rough-interval
Fuzzy Linear Programming IRFLP model was constructed by Lu et al. [31] to make a comparison
between the IRFLP model and an interval-valued linear programming model for water allocation to
provide more information for decision makers. The IRFLP was capable of handling the interaction
between dual intervals of highly uncertain parameters, as well as their joint impact on the system.
Fotakis and Sidiropoulos [32] developed a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to simultaneously

solve the problem of land use planning and resource allocation which performs optimization on a
cellular automaton domain, applying suitable transition rules on the individual neighborhoods. Xuan et
al. [33] developed an optimal water allocation model based on water resources security assessment.
Fang et al. [34] presented a comprehensive solution for water resources allocation in the Wuwei Basin
and they concluded that the model can effectively balance the benefits among all regions and
sections. Ward et al. [35] provided a framework for identifying, designing, and implementing water
allocation rules for food security in the developing world’s irrigated areas. Kang and Park [36]
developed a combined simulation-optimization model for simulating reservoir operations by adopting
the Shuffled Complex Evolution Method. They concluded that the model is useful for assessing
reservoirs’ irrigation water supply capacities when establishing operation plans and providing feasible
alternatives for new operation rules. Salman et al. [37] presented a methodology to maximize the net
farm income in Iraq by producing different types of crops. Four water right (allocation) systems and
three water supply scenarios were considered. The various conditions were compared in terms of
their capacity to minimize losses in net farm water-related income. Fotakis and Sidiropoulos [38]
integrated land-use and water allocation planning to maximize economic benefit, while minimizing
water extraction and transportation cost under ecological constraints. A review of agricultural irrigation
water allocation optimization models using different programming for optimizing irrigation
management was done by Singh, [39].
Vaghefi et al. [40] linked the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to the generic river basin
management decision support system (MODSIM) for water allocation in the Karkheh river basin. Their
analyses indicate that it is possible to use changes in cropping patterns as an effective tool to adapt to
the negative impacts of climate change. The optimization of water resources allocation in a typical
river basin was proposed by Wang et al. [41] using multi-objective programming. It was applied on the
water deficient of Heihe River Basin by embedding land use as a constraint on water allocation. Their
results demonstrate that the optimal program can predicate the actual situation of water allocation in
the future. A multi-objective water allocation optimization model to maximize crop yields was
developed by Lalehzari et al. [42].
Oxley et al. [43] developed a model that defines the net economic benefits calculated in terms of both
use and non-use values and sustainability in terms of the risks to water supplies and riverine
ecological, environmental and hydrological integrity. An optimization model maximizing the
sustainable net economic benefit over a long-term planning horizon was applied by Oxley and Mays
[44] to the Prescott Active Management Area. The model evaluates four scenarios to test the validity
of the developed model and to provide examples of its potential application.
Nguyen et al. [45] developed an improved agricultural crop and water allocation model using ant
colony optimization (ACO) by enabling the dynamic decision variable option (DDVO). The model
22
maximizes the net benefit from allocating a fixed total volume of water to cultivated selected kinds of
crops. Davijani et al. [46] developed a water allocation optimization model using the particle swarm
optimization (PSO) algorithm maximizes the number of the generated jobs in both agricultural and
industrial sectors in the central desert region of Iran. The model gives water policy makers an
indication about the optimal solution in case of certain policies to be adopted. Nguyen et al. [47]
introduced a general optimization framework by optimizing crop and water allocation using ant colony
optimization and dynamic decision variable option (ACO -DDVO). The model reduced search space
size and increasing the computational efficiency of evolutionary algorithm application. Abdulbaki et al.
[48] developed an integer linear programming decision support model to optimally allocate water
resources by minimizing water treatment, allocation, and environmental costs. The model has the
flexibility to consider multiple water sources (seawater, surface water, groundwater and reclaimed
wastewater) that allocated to different consumers (irrigation, potable, and industrial) with different
quality requirements.
A genetic simulation-optimization framework for optimal irrigation and fertilizer scheduling was
developed by Nguyen et al. [49] using ant colony optimization (ACO). Anwar and Haq [50] presented
a GA to solve sequential irrigation scheduling problems. Four different consecutive irrigation scenarios
were adopted using four GA models allocating irrigation water to 94 users.
An agricultural irrigation water allocation optimization model using a GA was developed to be applied
on the Sri Ram Sagar project in India [51]. Kumar et al. [51] presented a water allocation optimization
model for agricultural irrigation using GA. The model maximizes the net benefit from the use of certain
types of crops following cropping pattern in Karnataka, India. Sadati et al. [52] presented a nonlinear
programming optimization model using a GA to maximize farm income by determining optimal
reservoirs release and optimal cropping pattern.
Aljanabi et al. [53] developed a nonlinear water allocation optimization model to maximize the net farm
income from the cultivation of different types of crops irrigated by the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers
in Iraq. The model examines how profitability, at both the farm and basin levels, is affected by various
water appropriation systems.
3. THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL
3.1 Objective Function
The objective function of this model is to maximize the total net benefit by comparing the results of
using three different qualities of reclaimed wastewater, RW type A, type B, and type C, to irrigate
farms (x=1 to X) cultivating crops (c=1 to C). The model also assumes a proportional water sharing
rule (PSR) to allocate RW among observed farmlands proportionally by considering the ratio of the
observed farm’s area in the entire system to the total farms’ observed area. Each RW i irrigates certain
types of crops depending on the quality requirements of that crop. The model computes the net
benefit Nb ($) from the use of RW i by allowing only one crop c to be cultivated in each farm x using
the PSR. The objective function maximizes net benefits is:
. =∑ , i = 1, …., I (1)
Where Nb , represents the computed net benefit ($) for each farm x cultivating crop c using RW type
i. In general, the net benefit is usually computed by subtracting the cost of production from the selling
price.
The total cost CP , , ($) to produce crop c cultivated in farm x using RW type i is the sum of crop’s
production cost plus the cost of the assigned RW type i to cultivate crop c, which is:
, , =∑ ( , , + , , ) x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (2)
23
Where FA , , is the assigned area (ha) of farm x in hectare to cultivate crop c using RW type i; CCost
3
is crop c production cost ($/ha); RW , , is the assigned RW (m ) of type i to irrigate farm x cultivating
3
crop c; and RWC is the cost ($/m ) of RW type i.
A crop’s production cost is based on updated data including the cost of seeds, land preparation cost,
labor cost, and fertilizer cost. A crop’s yield is computed by considering the yield of each crop Y
(ton/ha) multiplied by the selling price of that crop P ($/ton) times the cultivated area FA , , (ha),
which is as follows:
, , = , , (3)
By re-arranging equations (2) and (3), the net benefit, Nb , , , of cultivating crop c in farm x using RW
type i is:
, , = ∑ [( , , )− , , − , , ] c=1, …., C, x=1, …., X and i =

1, …., I (4)
For any RW type i, assuming that each crop c has a coefficient of connectivity, CRw , , according to
the crop’s quality standards and salinity tolerance. Then, equation (4) can be re-written as:
, , = , , , − , , , − , , , c=1, …., C
x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (5)
In this water allocation system, for any farm x, there is only one crop c that can be cultivated using
RW type i. By considering the connectivity coefficient M , , of crop c to farm x and RW type i as a
binary variable, the net benefit Nb , , from the cultivation of crop c in farm x using RW type i can be
re-written as:
, , =
, , , , , − , , , , , + , , , , ,
c=1, …., C, x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (6)
To compute the net benefit Nb , of cultivating farm x using RW type i , the total net benefit equation is
written as:
, = ∑ , , , , , − , , , , , + , , , , ,
x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (7)
3.2 Decision Variables
The optimization model allocates farmland areas and RW to cultivate different types of crops, so the
decision variables are:
a) FA , , assigned area of farm x to cultivate crop c using RW type i (ha)
3
b) RW , , assigned RW of type i to farm x farming crop c (m )
c) M , , connectivity of RW type i to farm x and crop c (binary variable)
3.3 Constraints
Whenever a given amount of RW from a certain type i is allocated to irrigate crop c, it is important to
optimally be allocated by considering the season of growth water requirements to satisfy a crop’s real
water consumption. Adopting this strategy will produce a reasonable irrigation scheme which reflects
positively on crop yield and on the conservation of the consumed water to irrigate more lands. The
available amount of RW type i should optimally be allocated to irrigate part or all of the observed
farmlands considering the following constraints:
3.3.1 RW availability constraints
Three RW availabilities related to their quality are considered. The availability of RW type A (i=1) from
tertiary treated wastewater; availability of RW type B (i=2) from secondary treated wastewater; and
availability of RW type C (i=3) from primary treated wastewater.
24
1) Consumed RW type i: The sum of the total use of RW (RW , , ) of a certain type i must be equal or
less than the total amount of RW (QRw ) of the same type i released from the same WWTP in the
same cultivation season.
∑ ∑ , , ≤ i = 1, …., I (8)
3
Where QRw is the total amount of assigned RW type i (m ).
2) Consumed RW by type i and farm x: The sum of the assigned RW type i to irrigate farms (x=1 to
X) cultivating crops (c=1 to C) must be equal or less than the hydraulic loading Lw (m3/ha) of each
crop c times the cultivated area FA , , (ha), which is:
∑ , , =∑ , , x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (9)
By applying RW-farm-crop connectivity coefficient (M , , ) and RW-crop coefficient (CRw , ) on both

sides of equation (9), it yields to:
∑ , , , , , =∑ , , , , , x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (10)

3
The hydraulic loading Lw (m /ha) considering each cultivated crop c is computed as:
= = , × 1+ × c=1, …., C (11)
Where ETc is the evapotranspiration requirements (mm/season) to cultivate crop c; E is the irrigation
efficiency to cultivate crop c; NR is the net irrigation requirements (mm/season) to cultivate crop
c; LR is the leaching requirement to cultivate crop c; and (10000/1000) is a conversion factor to
3
m /ha.
3) Consumed RW from source i by farm x irrigating crop c:
∑ , , = , x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (12)
By applying RW-farm-crop connectivity coefficient (M , , ) and RW-crop coefficient (CRw , ) on both

sides of equation (12), it yields to:
∑ , , , , , = , x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (13)
Where RLn , is the ratio of the observed area of farm x (Ln ) to the total observed area in the system
(TLn ), defined as:
, = / x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (14)
Equation (13) assures the proportionality in water allocation among farmlands considering the ratio of
their areas in the system.
3.3.2 Irrigated farmlands constraints
1) Irrigated area of farm x: The area in production FA , , (ha) of farm x cultivating crop c using RW
type i must be equal or less than the observed area Ln (ha) of farm x, as:
∑ , , ≤ x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (15)
By applying RW-crop coefficient (CRw , ) in equation (15), it yields to:
∑ , , , ≤ x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (16)
25
2) Total irrigated farmlands area per RW type i: The sum of the total irrigated area in the system
must be equal or less than the area of the total observed farmlands, which is:
∑ ∑ , , ≤∑ i = 1, …., I (17)
3) Maximum farmlands area to be cultivated by crop c: In order not to exceed the upper limit of
the area cultivated using crop c to avoid the domination of the most economic crop on others and to
force the model to select as many crops as it could to satisfy the variety in production, the following
constraint is considered:
∑ , , ≤ , i = 1, …., I and c= 1, …., C (18)
Where FARWC , is the maximum area (ha) allowed to be cultivated with crop c using RW type i.
3.3.3 Connectivity of RW type i to farm x and crop c constraint
This binary variable coefficient M , , assures that only one crop c is to be cultivated in farm x irrigated
using RW type i. So, the sum of M , , , for the same farm x irrigated from the same RW type i, must be
equal to 1.0, as in the following
∑ ∑ , , =1 c= 1, …., C (19)
4. BAGHDAD AS A CASE STUDY

The location of the wastewater treatment plant (RW source), locations and types of the potential RW
uses, water quality consideration, the need for additional treatment, and the cost of competing for
alternative sources are the main local conditions which influence the economics of RW reuse.
Producing RW suitable for agricultural irrigation is less costly than to provide a higher level of
treatment, such as nutrient removal, necessary for discharge into ecological sensitive surface waters
[54].
Reuse of wastewater in Baghdad is logical as the wastewater treatment plants are located in the
southern portion of Baghdad and there is land available for irrigation south of Baghdad. Furthermore,
the RW can be delivered by gravity using mostly existing irrigation canals. Two wastewater treatment
plants can treat a total of 1.0 × 106 m3/d by secondary treatment. The Alrustumia wastewater
5 3
treatment can treat 5.5 × 10 m /d in a three different treatment trains and this is the plant that is being
considered for production of RW in this study. The total land available for irrigation that is being
considered is 7,045 ha divided into 106 individual farms. Each farm is based on land ownership and
are therefore of different land areas.
5. DATA FOR OPTIMIZATION MODEL

Crop water requirements ETc were adopted from Salman et al., [37] and updated from the Strategy
for Water and Land Resources in Iraq [8]. Crop production costs in US dollar per hectare ($/ha),
presented in Table 1, based on data secured from the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture and the Iraqi
Central Statistical Organization (ICSO), 2017 [55]. The production cost includes soil fertility, weather,
and water availability and quality which fluctuated across Iraq. The yield rates of different types of
crops in Iraq are provided in Table 1.
There is a variety of 33 strategic crops which can be cultivated in Iraq [8] which can be irrigated using
RW as an alternative source considering its quality, crop type, and the irrigation method. Those crops
can be divided into human edible and inedible crops in addition to the industrial crops. So, the
optimization maximizes the net benefit of 14 crops of the 33 strategic crops to measure their
profitability. Table 1 shows the strategic crops which are adopted in the optimization model.
In order to force the model not exceed a maximum area for each crop, maximum allowed areas were
assigned to each crop for different types of RW (Table 2).
26
Table 1. Crop production costs exclusive of water costs ($ US per ha), (ICSO, 2017)
Crop Cotton Wheat Maize Potato Tomato Barley Clover Cucumber Alfalfa Onion Eggplant Sunflower Sesame Okra
Cost 1200 820 900 750 1300 720 320 1350 500 580 1250 550 475 1230
($/ha)
Table 2. Maximum allowed areas (ha) to be cultivated by certain types of crops irrigated using three RW qualities
Cotton Wheat Maize Potato Tomato Barley Clover Cucumber Alfalfa Onion Eggplant Sunflower Sesame Okra
RW A 1500 1500 1500 1250 750 1500 1000 300 1000 300 250 1000 500 200
RW B 1500 2000 1500 0 750 1500 1000 300 1000 0 250 250 500 200
RW C 1500 0 0 0 0 1500 2000 0 2000 0 0 1500 0 0
27
6. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The results of the solution of the 0/1 mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) optimization
model are presented in Figs. 2-4. The branch and reduce optimization navigator (BARON) solver [56]
in the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) [57] was implemented. The net farm income was
predicted by maximizing the net benefit by allocating RW type A, type B, and Type C to irrigate a
variety of 14 strategic crops to be cultivated in 106 farms of 7045 (ha) in Baghdad under the use of
proportional water sharing rule (PSR).
14
12
10
Net Benefit ($ million)
4
65% Irrigation
Efficiency
70% Irrigation
2
Efficiency
75% Irrigation
Efficiency
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RW × 106 (m3)
Fig. 2. Computed net benefit ($) comparing irrigation efficiencies using RW type A
5
2 65% Irrigation Efficiency

70% Irrigation Efficiency
1 75% Irrigation Efficiency
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RW × 106 (m3)
Fig. 3. Computed net benefit ($) comparing irrigation efficiencies using RW type B
28
0.7
0.6 75% Irrigation Efficiency
0.5 85% Irrigation Efficiency

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RW × 106 (m3)
Fig. 4. Computed net benefit ($) comparing irrigation efficiencies using RW type C
The predicted net benefit results of using RW type A, type B, and type C respectively, under five
different irrigation efficiencies are illustrated in Figs. 2-4 respectively. It is obvious that the increase of
irrigation efficiency reflects positively on the net income due to the decrease in the RW requirement
which gives the opportunity to cultivate larger areas selecting the highest value crops.
As illustrated in Fig. 2, the optimization model results show a consistent net benefit increase
corresponding with the increase of irrigation efficiencies for most assumed quantities of RW type A
because the crops which are selected by the model are close to each other in their net benefit. Using
6×106 m3 of RW type A and 65% irrigation efficiency, the predicted net benefit was $3.56×106
6 3
irrigating 556 ha of tomato. Using 20×10 m of RW type A and 85% irrigation efficiency, there was
1248 ha of potato, 747 ha of tomato, and 202 ha of onion with a predicted net benefit of about
$13.0×106.
RW type B shows a slightly different behavior (Fig. 3) because it has a lower range of crops to be
cultivated which reduces the maximized net benefit. The crops which were computed by the model to
be irrigated using RW type B above the level of 12 ×106 m3 have a lower marginal net benefit than
6 3
okra, eggplant, and cucumber. Using 6×10 m of RW type B and 65% irrigation efficiency predicted a
6
net benefit of $3.68×10 irrigating 556 ha of tomato. In comparison, there were 748 ha of tomato, 248
ha of eggplant, 200 ha of okra, 298 ha of cucumber, and 530 ha of clover resulting in a $6.64×106 net
benefit.
RW type C maintained the same trend with the maximized net benefit (Fig. 4) because it can only
irrigate a small selection of crops. Using 6×106 m3 of RW type C and 65% irrigation efficiency, the
6 3
model irrigated 556 ha of clover. When the model used 20×10 m of RW type C with 85% irrigation
efficiency, only 1551 ha of clover was irrigated. This is because clover is one of the highest water
demand crops among the selected list of crops (Table 2) but it has the highest net benefit per hectare.
In this model, RW type A can select from all the 14 strategic crops, RW type B and RW type C are
capable of selecting 12 and 5 crops, respectively, of the 14 selected crops shown in Table 2. On the
other hand, each crop has its own evapotranspiration, production cost, yield, and selling price, which
causes the variation in the predicted farms economic benefits. For instance, the predicted benefit of
29
using 14×106 m3 of RW type A adopting 80% irrigation efficiency is about $9.23×106 cultivating a total
of 1499 ha farming 736 ha of tomato and 763 ha of potato. The model predicted the net benefit of
6
using the same amount of RW type B under the same irrigation efficiency is about $6.43×10
cultivating 750 ha of tomatoes, 285 ha of cucumber, 250 ha of eggplant, 177 ha of okra, and 30 ha of
6
clover. While the net benefit is predicted to be $3.49×10 using RW type C irrigating 1022 ha of
clover. It is obvious that the use of RW type C provide the lowest net benefit due to the limited number
of crops which are irrigated, due to quality standards, and the low marginal benefit of those crops in
comparison to RW types A and B.
The results show that RW type A provides the highest net benefit of RW to be used since it allowed
for irrigation of crops with the highest net benefit. The capability of RW type A to irrigate all the
suggested crops, due its high quality, has promoted the model the opportunity of selecting the high
value crops for cultivation. A similar phenomenon is observed under the use of RW type B where it
has fewer options for crops to be cultivated as compared to RW type A.
Figs. 5-9 compare the net benefit from the use of RW types A, B and C under 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%
6 6 3
and 85% irrigation efficiencies respectively. Fig. 5 shows that using 6×10 to 8.5 × 10 m availability
of reclaimed wastewater, RW type B performs better than RW types A and C. This domination of RW
type B over RW type A is because the model selected the same type of crop, which is tomato, to be
cultivated in same areas using RW type A and B, but the difference occurred because the cost of RW
type B is less than RW type A. The domination of RW type B on RW type A decreases with the
increase in RW volumes, as the model allocates water on farmlands to cultivate the most economic
crop (Figs 8 and 9). For instance, under a certain amount of RW availability, the model selected
tomatoes and then potatoes to be cultivated using RW type A, while tomato, cucumber, eggplant and
okra were selected to be irrigated by RW type B.
12
RWA
RWB
10 RWC
8
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RW × 106 (m3)
Fig. 5. Computed net benefit ($) adopting 65% irrigation efficiency
30
12
RWA
RWB
10 RWC
8
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RW × 106 (m3)
14
RWA
12 RWB
RWC
10
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RW × 106 (m3)
31
14
RWA
12 RWB
RWC
10
8
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RW × 106 (m3)
14
RWA
RWB
12
RWC
10
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
RW × 106 (m3)
32
7. SUMMARY
The positive results from comparing the use of different RW qualities under different irrigation
efficiencies helps in the evaluation of the Alrustumia WWTP, and others in Iraq, to show how it is
efficient to invest in treated wastewater for agricultural irrigation instead of deposition to the
environment. On the other hand, this study helps the decision makers take advantage of promoting
wastewater treatment efficiencies of the recently rebuilt WWTPs by considering tertiary treatment for
the existing and potential new WWTPs to employ their reclaimed wastewater for agricultural irrigation
or other practices. In addition, the available wide range of selected crops considering RW type A
offered the model a flexibility in selecting the highest economic crops to satisfy the maximum limit of
the allowable cultivated area by each crop.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Special thanks and gratitude to the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Researches-Iraq for
the sponsoring and funding Ahmed A. Aljanabi’s graduate study at Arizona State University.
COMPETING INTERESTS
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36
Ahmed A. Aljanabi
He is a self-employed Water Resources and Environmental Expert. He earned his B.Sc. (2000) in the Civil Engineering, Higher
Diploma (2002) in the Environmental Engineering, and M.Sc. (2007) in Water Resources Engineering from the University of
Technology (Iraq) and the Ph.D. (2019) in the Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering specialized in Water
Resources Engineering from Arizona State University. His professional interest are primarily in water resources engineering,
water resources planning and management, drainage and stormwater design and analysis, hydraulic structures, hydrology,
reclaimed water reuse, and water-food-energy nexus. He worked as a graduate research assistant under the supervision of Dr.
Larry W. Mays and Dr. Peter Fox in the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment at Arizona State
University while he developed water allocation optimization models. He also worked for more than seven years in the Scientific
and Engineering Consulting Bureau at University of Technology (Iraq), which improved his knowledge and enhanced his
practical experience in dealing with water resources issues and related solutions. Furthermore, he has participated in many
national and international conferences, symposiums, webinars, workshops, seminars, and lectures in the fields of water
resources, reclaimed water use, optimization, sustainability, resilience of water resources, and water regulations and policies.
Larry W. Mays
He is a Professor Emeritus of the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment at Arizona State University. He
earned his B.S. (1970) and M.S. (1971) in civil engineering from the University of Missouri at Rolla (now the Missouri School of
Science and Technology) and the Ph.D. in water resources engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
(UIUC) in 1976 and has been bestowed the Distinguished Alumnus Award from UIUC. His academic career has spanned over
43 years, first at the University of Texas at Austin 1976 - 1989 and then continuing for the last 30 years at Arizona State
University. At the University of Texas at Austin, he served as the Director of the Center for Research in Water Resources, and
at Arizona State University, he served as Chair of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department from 1989 to 1996. His
awards have included the 2014 ASCE Julian Hinds Award, the 2015 Warren A. Hall Medal from the Universities Council on
Water Resources, the 2016 ASCE Ven Te Chow Award, the ASCE Arid Lands Hydraulic Engineering Award, and the 6th
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Surface Water. He has published extensively his research in water resources
engineering and has been the author, co-author, or editor of 24 books including: co-author of the textbooks Applied Hydrology,
Hydrosystems Engineering and Management, and Groundwater Hydrology; the author of Water Resources Engineering and
Optimal Control of Hydrosystems; and editor-in-chief of Water Resources Handbook, Hydraulic Design Handbook, Water
Distribution Systems Handbook, Stormwater Collection Systems Handbook, and others. One of his major efforts is the study of
ancient water systems and the relation that these systems could have on solving our problems of water resources sustainability
using the concepts of traditional knowledge. He developed the book Ancient Water Technologies.
37
Peter Fox
He is a Professor in the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment in the Ira A. Fulton School of Engineeri
Engineering
at Arizona State University. He is also the ggraduate
raduate program chair for civil engineering. He earned his B.S. (1985) in Chemical
Engineering, M.S. (1985) in Civil and Environmental Engineering, and the Ph.D. (1989) in Civil and Environmental Engineering
from the University of Illinois. He is a Senior Sustainability Scientist at the Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation. His
professional interests are primarily in water reuse, biological treatment processes and combined biological
biological-adsorptive
adsorptive systems.
He has focused his work on natural treatment ent systems and water reuse for the last 12 years. He has recently been expanding
his expertise on sustainable water systems to include desalination. He is a member of many professional societies including the t
American Water Works Association, Association of Environmental Engineering Professors, American Society of Civil
Engineers, Arizona Water Pollution Control Association, International Association of Water Quality and the Water Environment
Federation. He is an associate editor of the American Society of Civil Engineering's Journal of Environmental Engineering. He
was awarded the Quentin Mees Research Awards from the Arizona Water Pollution Control Association in 1991,1994, 1997
and 2003.
_________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________
): Author(s).
Author . The licensee is the publisher (Book Publisher International).
DISCLAIMER
Environment and Natural Resources Research, 8(2 2): 55-68, 2018.
38
Chapter 3
Study on Application of an Optimization Model for

Assessing the Performance of Water Appropriation
in Iraq
Ahmed A. Aljanabi1, Larry W. Mays2* and Peter Fox2
ABSTRACT
The magnitude of water resources shortages in the Middle East represents an important factor in the
stability of the region and it is a vital element in protecting sustained economic development in the
region. This investigation addresses the ongoing challenge of water governance in Iraq by examining
how profitability, at both the farm and basin levels, is affected by various water appropriation systems.
Farmland irrigation in Iraq was evaluated using three water appropriation systems; upstream (UPR),
downstream (DPR) and proportional (PSR) sharing rule. Their impacts on farm income under normal,
dry, and drought water supply scenarios were evaluated using an irrigation water model coupled with
a nonlinear programming (NLP) optimization model. As compared to UPR, PSR provided a 32% and
75% increase in total farm income for the Tigris River under dry and drought supply conditions,
respectively. As compared to DPR, PSR provided a 47% and 83.5% increase in total farm income for
the Euphrates River under dry and drought supply conditions, respectively. The results from this study
are intended to provide guidance for decision makers in Iraq for potential future conditions where
water supplies are reduced and demonstrate how it is feasible to adopt the PSR as an alternative and
efficient water allocation rule due to its flexibility of providing fair water resource allocation in drought
seasons.
Keywords: Optimization; agriculture; water allocation; drought; shadow prices.
1.INTRODUCTION
Iraq is located in the eastern part of the arid and semi-arid Middle East. The country’s climate tends to
have temperatures of 43°C during the months of July and August and drop down to an average of 16-
20°C during the winter [1,2]. In addition, the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers form the primary sources of
fresh water for Iraq (Fig. 1). The average annual flow for the Tigris River from 2003 to 2014 has been
3
estimated as 36.4 billion m /yr. Most of the Tigris River water and its tributaries originate in Turkey
(56%) followed by Iran (12%) and the remaining 32% from sources inside Iraq (Table 1). During the
period of 1933-2012, the Tigris’s River experienced significant fluctuations in its annual water income
and a noticeable repetition of water shortage since 1999. Furthermore, the Euphrates River sources
originate in Turkey (88%) followed by Syria (9%) and Iraq (3%). The Euphrates River experienced
significant water shortages from 2009 to 2014. These two rivers also experience significant water
demands upstream of Iraq. Combining the recent situation of water supply decreases and increasing
demands in Turkey and Iraq, more severe shortages in surface water resources are to be expected in
the future, particularly if the effects of climate change are considered (Voss et al., 2013). Water is
often poorly distributed because of inadequate leveling, lack of know-how and poor water
management practices; because that total managed irrigation water area in Iraq are flood irrigated
[3,4].
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
2
*Corresponding author: E-mail: Mays@asu.edu;
Study on Application of an Optimization Model for Assessing the Performance of Water Appropriation in Iraq
In Iraq, the planning and construction of new irrigation and flood control systems by the Board of
Development began in 1950. As a result, numerous dams, canal systems, irrigation projects and
flood control structures
ctures were constructed on the river systems inside Iraq [5,6].. These structures had
positive impacts on the receiving agricultural lands and the installation of tile drainage systems helped
develop and improve agricultural lands providing an important impact
impact on the country's economy.
The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) in Turkey began in 1970 and will consist of 22 dams on both
the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. This project has reduced the flow of water to Iraq by approximately
50% and also increased ed the salinity of the water entering Iraq. The combination of reduced water
flows, reduced rainfall, and population growth in Iraq resulted in periods of severe water shortages in
2007- 2009. There was a steep decline in agricultural productivity in the highly populated areas along
the Euphrates and Tigris river basins [7]. Iraq’s crop production was reduced to one half of its usual
rate of production and many farmers abandoned their agricultural lands. Consequently, food imports
had to increase while the
he majority of food is currently imported into Iraq resulting in elevated costs to
consumers [8].
Fig. 1. Iraq provinces and surface water system [9]
40
Table 1. Tigris River and its tributaries average annual water flows
Tigris River and its Total Length Total Area Annual Water Annual Water Flow (%)
2 3
Tributaries (km) km Flows (Billion m ) Inside Iraq Outside Iraq
Tigris River 1900 46700 19.43 - 1
Feesh Khabour 160 6270 2.1 0.58 0.42
Greater Zab 473 26470 14.32 0.58 0.42
Lesser Zab 456 22250 7.07 0.64 0.36
Adhaim 220 10680 0.7 1.00 -
Deyala 386 3200 5.86 0.41 0.59
Total 49.48 0.32 Turkey 56%
Iran 12%
.
Since 2014, in addition to internal instability due to political conflicts that have directly affected the
country’s security and economy, Iraq has been subjected to several external attacks from what is
known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). These conflicts affected the control of the waters
in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers while ISIS controlled the Falluja Barrage on the Euphrates River
and Mosul Dam on the Tigris River. Furthermore, many other important hydraulic structures have
been threatened by ISIS, such as Haditha Dam on the Euphrates River. These threats had generated
water supplies instability and the consequent agricultural production, while the Iraqi government could
not secure water supplies. Consequently, severe water shortages lasted for more than two years in
many regions which were irrigated by the Euphrates River to the south of Baghdad. Furthermore,
major issues and local conflicts occurred which have their negative impacts on the entire water
system in Iraq. In 2016-2017, the Iraqi forces and their allies were capable to combat and defeat ISIS
in many regions in Iraq, allowing the Iraqi government to control the water supply.
Currently, there remains a serious threat to the Mosul Dam due to a potential foundation failure. This
threat has been known for an extended period of time. Iraqi authorities have attempted to stabilize the
foundation of the dam using grout. A lack of funding and the dangerous security conditions around
the Mosul Dam have made it difficult to completely stabilize the dam. A dam breach would cause
flooding and increase downstream water shortages. In late 2016, efforts to solve the problem at the
Mosul Dam were resumed by the Iraqi government which created hope in recovering the dam to its
full functionality.
1.1 Objective
Combining the reduction in water supply, the recent political conflicts, in addition to future predictions
based on global warming, increased severe water shortages are to be expected in Iraq’s surface
water resources. Serious and time responsive measures should be adopted in order to overcome this
potential problem. Regional cooperation and coordination should be taken by the decision makers to
implement practical and applicable water management strategies. So, the agricultural water allocation
optimization model implemented in this study, through maximizing the net farm benefit, was modified
and applied to provide guidance for the future water authorities and to sustain water in Iraq’s future.
1.2 Optimization for Water Allocation Modeling
Water allocation models have been developed for regions with climates similar to Iraq using a variety
of methodologies. Burton [10] developed a Computer Aided and Management Simulation of Irrigation
Systems model (CAMSIS) to simulate farm income by using different water allocation rules and
polices which were adopted under water shortage or drought scenarios in East Africa. Paul et al., [11]
used a multi-level approach to solve problems related to seasonal and intra-seasonal irrigation water
resources allocation in a semiarid region of Indian Punjab considering the competition of the crops in
a season, both for irrigation water and area of cultivation. An agricultural water allocation system
model using linear programming was developed by Salman et al., [12] for analysis of inter-seasonal
irrigation water allocation and their effects on the net farm income. The function of the model is to
serve as a decision-making tool for planners of agricultural production on both local and regional
levels. Shangguan et al., [13] presented an irrigation water allocation optimization model using
multiple water resources allocation and their results demonstrated that obstacles in dynamic
41
programming with multiple dimensions could be overcome. Brown et al., [14] used an AQUARIUS
model developed to evaluate temporal and spatial allocation of flows among competing water uses in
a river. Babel et al., [15] introduced the interactive Integrated Water Allocation Model (IWAM) to aid in
decision-making for water use by considering socio-economic, environmental and technical factors
using three computational modules for reservoir operation, economic analysis and water allocation.
Sadegh et al., [16] proposed a methodology based on Shapely Games to be used in water resources
allocation among different users for the Karoon River basin in Iran with the goal of developing an
equity standard to increase the total net benefit of the system.
A stochastic nonlinear programming model with multiple objectives was used by You et al., [17] to aid
in multi-objective decision-making considering the Haihe River as a case study. An Inexact Rough-
interval Fuzzy Linear Programming IRFLP model was constructed to make a comparison between the
IRFLP model and an interval-valued linear programming model for water allocation to provide more
conveniences for decision makers. The IRFLP shows distinction in handling the interaction between
dual intervals of highly uncertain parameters, as well as their joint impact on the system [18]. A water
resources allocation optimization model [19] using multi-objective programming was applied on water
deficient of Haihe River basin by embedding land use as a constraint on water allocation. Oxley et al.,
[20] developed a model that defines the net economic benefits calculated in terms of both use and
non-use values and sustainability in terms of the risks to water supplies and riverine ecological,
environmental and hydrological integrity. An optimization model maximizing the sustainable net
economic benefit over a long-term planning horizon was applied by Oxley and Mays [21] to Prescott
Active Management Area. The model evaluates four scenarios to test the validity of the developed
model and to provide examples of its potential application.
Fotakis and Sidiropoulos [22] developed a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to simultaneously

solve the problem of land use planning and resource allocation which performs optimization on a
cellular automaton domain, applying suitable transition rules on the individual neighborhoods. Fang et
al., [23] presented a comprehensive solution for water resources allocation in the Wuwei Basin and
they concluded that the model can effectively balance the benefits among all regions and sections.
Vaghefi et al., [24] linked the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the generic river basin
management decision support system (MODSIM) for water allocation in the Karkheh river basin. Their
analyses indicate that it is possible to use changes in cropping patterns as an effective tool to adapt to
the negative impacts of climate change.
Salman et al., [25] presented a methodology to maximize the net farm income in Iraq by producing
different types of crops. Four water right (allocation) systems were considered: upstream priority,
downstream priority, proportional sharing of shortage, and unrestricted water trading. They considered
three water supply scenarios including: normal, dry and drought supply conditions. Dry conditions
were 50% of normal conditions and drought conditions were 20% of normal conditions. The various
conditions were compared in terms of their capacity to minimize losses in net farm water-related
income.
One of the limitations in the work by Salman et al., [25] was that the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers were
considered as one individual basin inside Iraq for irrigation in thirteen provinces. Water managers in
Iraq consider the two rivers as two separate basins which irrigate fifteen provinces. Thus, in order to
provide water managers more useful information, the model developed by Salman et al., [25] was
modified considering the two rivers as two separate basins which irrigate fifteen provinces.
Furthermore, the Salman et al., [25] model considered unrestricted water trading as one of the water
allocation priorities. In Iraq, a water trading strategy is inapplicable due to Iraq’s recent political,
geographical, and social composition as well as other religious considerations. Therefore, water
trading was not considered in the adopted model.
The optimization model utilized in this study was modified and applied to provide guidance for the
future water authorities and to sustain water in Iraq’s future by using recent water resource data.
Based upon the history of Iraq’s water resources systems and provincial distribution, changes were
made to the mentioned model by Salman et al., [25] in order to satisfy the current conditions in Iraq.
42
These changes affected some of the water distribution systems and the irrigated provinces for each
river. Most of the data which were used in the original model was from the year 2012.
The model application in this research improves upon the excellent work previously done by Salman
et al., [25]. Improvements include: making the model more accurate and applicable by reflecting the
Tigris and Euphrates River basins as separate basins, and the use of more recent data to reflect the
current irrigation and agricultural conditions inside Iraq. These modifications were made to reflect the
experience with Iraq’s recent water conditions. These changes can be summarized as follows:
(1) In comparison to Salman et al., [25], who considered the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers as one
individual basin in Iraq, this modeling effort considers the Rivers as two separate basins. This
change was done to the original model in order to satisfy Iraq’s current conditions and to
investigate a different approach. The updated model optimizes each of the two river basins
separately, which is how water is managed in Iraq.
(2) The second modification is to allocate the water of the two rivers over 17 agricultural demand
nodes inside Iraq (Table 2) in contrast to Salman et al., [25] who considered only 13 irrigation
provinces (nodes) to be irrigated by only one river basin.
(3) The updated model considers The Tigris River to irrigate eight provinces (nodes) which form
the majority of the eastern part of Iraq alongside with its flow path all the way from the north to
the south of Iraq. While the Euphrates River basin irrigates nine provinces (nodes) along with
its flow path at the western parts of Iraq starting at its entrance at the Iraqi-Syrian border to
the Arabian (Persian) Gulf south of Iraq. Both Baghdad and Basra were divided into two
sections because they are irrigated from the two rivers at the same time. The eastern parts,
Baghdad-A and Basra-A, are irrigated from The Tigris River, while the western parts,
Baghdad-B and Basra-B, are irrigated from The Euphrates River. Thus, there are seventeen
irrigated nodes in contrast to the thirteen provinces (nodes) used by Salman et al., [25].
(4) The updated model includes updated data to match the most recent conditions in Iraq. These
data were observed from Iraqi Central of Statistical Organization (ICSO) [26] which include
crop production rates, agricultural land per crop, production cost per crop, and associated
crop prices.
Table 2. Irrigated land in production by province [26]
Tigris River
Province Mosul Kurkuk Salaheldeen Deyala Baghdad-A Wasit Mesan Basrah-A
Estimated 94.08 189.29 221.02 172.83 52.75 258.51 111.86 29.36
Irrigated
Area (1000
ha)
Euphrates River
Province Anbar Baghdad-B Babylon Karbala Najaf Qadeseeya Muthana Thieqar Basrah-B
Estimated 126.25 41.19 132.28 10.38 50.08 160.72 1.93 51.33 23.43
Irrigated
Area (1000
ha)
2. DATA FOR OPTIMIZATION MODEL
The required data used in the optimization model is listed in Tables 1-4. Portions of the data on land
in production, crop yields, prices, costs of production, and net farm income per unit land by province
for the years 2010-2014, were adopted from select sources including the Iraqi Central Statistical
Organization [26], and Salman et al., [25]. Others were secured from specific Iraqi institutions
including the Ministry of Water Resources and the Ministry of Agriculture. The Tigris and Euphrates
Rivers’ annual flows were estimated to be 43-52.6 billion m3/yr and 28.7-30.5 billion m3/yr respectively
based on data from the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources [6]. The year 2006 was taken as the base
year for the current analysis because the supply from the river system water used in crop irrigation
was a maximum value. This was based on the 2006-2013 historical data from the Iraqi Ministry of
Agriculture showing that the highest total amount of irrigated land in production occurred in 2006 [1].
43
Salman et al., [25] calculated the river system water use by irrigated crops using the indirect methods
described by Allen et al., (1998).
Saleh [27] considered crop irrigation water requirement (ETc) as about 30% of the total water supplied
by the Tigris-Euphrates system in Iraq. Therefore, almost 70% of the available surface water inside
the country is largely unaccounted for and the exact fate of the water is not certain.
Crop water requirements ETc were adopted from Salman et al., [25], which were based on water
demands to support maximum yield. Crop production costs in US dollar per hectare ($/ha) were
updated to 2015 values, as presented in Table 3, based on data secured from the Iraqi Ministry of
Agriculture. Therefore, these costs are higher than those which were adopted in the original model by
Salman et al., [25]. The reason for higher costs include conflicts in Iraq and the rise of all agricultural
prices starting from the prices of seeds along with the prices of fuel and fertilizers. The production cost
includes soil fertility, weather, and water availability and quality which fluctuated across Iraq. The yield
rates of different types of crops in Iraq are provided in Table 4.
Table 3. Crop production costs exclusive of water costs ($ US per Ha) [26]
Crop Rice Wheat Cotton Sunflower Maize Barley Tomato Lettuce Onion
Cost $ 850 820 1300 655 900 720 1300 850 580
Table 4. Crop yield tons per hectare (proportional to ET) [26]
Province Rice Wheat Cotton Sunflower Maize Barley Tomato Lettuce Onion
1-Mousil 2.89 3.05 2.40 1.33 4.40 0.90 17.90 19.97 5.89
2-Kurkuk 2.89 3.35 2.50 2.86 5.63 2.76 5.86 15.20 4.80
3-Salaheldeen 2.89 2.49 0.80 1.58 3.57 1.18 12.79 15.44 2.10
4-Deyala 2.89 3.58 1.87 1.67 2.51 2.00 27.90 21.70 11.54
5-Anbar 4.00 2.69 0.36 2.78 2.08 0.8 14.82 23.77 9.24
6-Baghdad 4.00 2.61 0.58 1.45 2.26 1.21 14.60 26.18 20.13
7-Babylon 4.04 3.15 0.94 1.69 2.88 1.78 10.50 16.32 5.32
8-Karbala 4.00 2.35 0.50 1.50 2.66 1.55 9.48 9.07 3.30
9-Najaf 4.88 1.39 0.50 1.50 2.47 1.36 34.65 14.69 20.69
10-Qadeseeya 4.70 2.37 0.40 1.50 2.54 1.74 11.38 9.74 7.05
11-Wasit 2.89 2.81 0.50 1.33 2.58 1.28 7.12 11.91 4.40
12-Muthana 2.51 1.34 0.50 1.50 0.00 1.03 14.10 9.50 1.00
13-Meesan 2.20 2.17 2.42 1.33 3.40 1.41 14.44 11.45 0.01
14-Thieqar 1.80 1.86 0.50 1.50 2.85 1.66 7.85 18.26 11.31
15-Basra 1.70 1.98 0.50 1.50 0.88 0.87 2.97 11.45 1.00
3. OPTIMIZATION MODEL
3.1 Objective
The purpose of this model is to allocate crops on land in order to maximize the net farm income (Nfi)
by determining the optimal amount of land (Lni,k) assigned to each crop (k) in each province (i). The
ability to generate farm income is constrained by the quantity of water available for agriculture. A
mass balance equation was developed for water allocation and then constraints were assigned for the
three different water supply scenarios. The optimization model considered eight provinces associated
with the Tigris River (Mousil, Kurkuk, Salaheldeen, Deyala, Baghdad-A, Wasit, Meesan, Basra-A) and
the nine provinces associated with the Euphrates River (Anbar, Baghdad-B, Babylon, Karbala, Najaf,
Qadeseeya, Muthana, Thieqar, Basra-B).
The objective function is to maximize the total income from the crops k= 1, ..., K in provinces i= 1, …,
I, expressed as:
Max Net Farm Income (Nfi) = Max ∑i∑k Nbi,k (1)
44
Where Nbi,k is the total income from crop k in province i expressed as
Nbi,k = (Pi,k Yi,k – Ci,k) Lni,k (2)
Where Pik is the selling price ($/ton) of crop k in province i; Y is the yield of crop k (tons/ha) in
province i; Cik is the cost ($/ha) of production of crop i in province k; and Lnik is the land in production
(1000 ha/year) of crop k in province i.
3.2 Decision Variables and Constraints
The nonlinear programming (NLP) model contains a number of decision variables which are: water
availability (Wx,i,k) for normal conditions, dry conditions, and drought conditions are (W 1,i,k), (W 2,i,k), and
(W 3,i,k) respectively; land assigned (Lx,i,k) under normal, dry and drought water supply conditions are
(L1,i,k), (L2,i,k), and (L3,i,k) respectively.
3.2.1 Water availability conditions/constraints
Three water availability conditions Wux (m3) for the upstream entrance of each river are included:
availability for normal conditions Wu1; availability for dry conditions Wu2 =0.5 Wu1; and availability for
drought conditions Wu3 =0.2 Wu1. Subscript x=1 represents the water supply under normal conditions,
x=2 is the water supply under dry conditions and x=3 is the water supply under drought conditions.
The sum of the total water assigned for each province under a certain water availability condition must
be equal to or less than the total amount of water assigned for all the provinces under the same
availability conditions (Wu1, Wu2, Wu3). Using non-linear constraints written in terms of the decision
variables W x,i,k and Lx,i,k, the sum of the total water assigned for each province i is expressed as:
∑i∑k Wx,i,k Lx,i,k ≤ Wux for x= 1, 2, 3 (3)
where Wx,i,k is the unknown water use (m3/ha) of crop k in province i for a certain water supply
condition (x=1, 2, 3) and Lx,i,k is the unknown land (ha) to cultivate crop (i) in province (k) under the
same water supply conditions.
3.2.2 Land in production under various water supply conditions/ constraints
The total predicted land in production Lpx,i for a specific water supply condition per province i (1000
ha) is the sum of the unknown irrigated land Lx,i,k for each crop k in each province i under the same
water supply condition x, expressed as
Lpx,i = ∑k Lx,i,k for x = 1, 2, 3 and i = 1,…., I (4)
The available irrigable farmland for each province is presented in Table 2 and represents the
maximum farmland that could be used in each province.
3.2.3 Water rights by province constraints
The percentage of a basin's water rights by province i (policy of water allocation rule) under certain
water supply conditions (Rx,i) is evaluated using different priorities based on three distinct water
sharing rules: upstream priority rule (UPR), downstream priority rule (DPR), and proportional sharing
allocation rules (PSR). The sum of the total water rights percentages Rx,i for all provinces under a
certain water supply condition (x=1, 2, 3) must be equal to 1.0 as expressed in terms of the unknown
water use W , , and the irrigated land L , , under the same water supply conditions.
∑ ,, ,,
, = = 1.0 for x = 1, 2, 3 and i = 1,…., I (5)
45
3.3 Water Allocation Rules
3.3.1 Upstream Priority Rule (UPR)
The upstream province in the river basin collects its full allocation of water, while the next lower
province collects its full allocation of the remaining water as long as water remains in the river system.
The remaining water after supplying provinces using the upstream allocation rule with higher priorities
Rsux,i, starting from the upstream province traveling to the farthest downstream province under a
certain water supply condition (x=1, 2, 3), is defined as:
Rsux,i = (Wux - ∑k Wx,i,k) for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (6)
∑k Wx,i,k = 0 when i=1 for x= 1, 2, 3 (7)
3.3.2 Downstream Priority Rule (DPR)
Under this water allocation rule, the farthest downstream province receives its full amount of water
that would occur under a specific water supply condition while the next upper province takes its full
amount of remaining water, sequentially moving from the downstream to the upstream provinces. The
water allocation, using DPR, is essentially the opposite of UPR, resulting in an almost identical
mathematical expression. The remaining water after supplying provinces using DPR with higher
priorities Rsdx,i, beginning from the farthest downstream province going to the upstream province,
under a certain water supply condition (x=1, 2, 3), is defined as:
Rsdx,i = (Wux - ∑k Wx,i,k) for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (8)
∑k Wx,i,k = 0 when i=1 for x= 1, 2, 3 (9)
3.3.3 Proportional Sharing Rule (PSR)
The water allocation rule for proportional sharing during a shortage allows each province to sustain
the burden of water shortages proportionally. Under this arrangement, when shortages are shared, an
X% overall shortage of normal supplies reflects an equal X% reduction of each province’s full share
under normal conditions. The remaining water supply after supplying provinces, using the proportional
sharing of shortage allocation rule with higher priorities Rspx,i, starting from the upstream province
going to the farthest downstream under a certain water supply condition (x=1, 2, 3), is defined as:
Rspx,i = (Wux - ∑k Wx,i,k) for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (10)
∑k Wx,i,k = 0 when i=1 for x= 1, 2, 3 (11)
The total paper rights by priority for all provinces is the sum of the percentage of water allocation rule
of all provinces. The total paper rights constraint Tpx, under a certain water supply condition (x=1, 2,
3), is the sum of the total water rights percentages Rpx,i of all provinces under the same conditions:
Tpx = ∑i Rpx,i for x= 1, 2, 3 (12)

th
The unknown water use assigned to i province using one of the allocation rules, the UPR, the DPR,
and the PSR, under specific water supply conditions (normal, dry, and drought water supply) are
th
defined. The unknown water use Wwux,i assigned to i province using UPR, under a certain water
supply condition (x=1, 2, 3), is defined as:
Wwux,i = (Rpx,i / Tpx) Rsux,i for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (13)

th
The unknown water use Wwdx,i assigned to the i province using DPR, under a certain water supply
condition (x=1, 2, 3), is defined as:
46
Wwdx,i = (Rpx,i / Tpx) Rsdx,i for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (14)

th
The unknown water use Wwpx,i assigned to the i province using PSR, under a certain water supply
conditions (x=1, 2, 3), is defined as:
Wwpx,i = (Rpx,i / Tpx) Rspx,i for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (15)
The cumulative water result, after water is assigned to the last province getting water, should match
the total supply. Using the UPR, the cumulative water result Cux,i that is assigned to the last province
obtaining water under a certain water supply condition (x=1, 2, 3) is defined in equation 16, which
should match the total supply under the same condition x.
Cux,i = ∑k (Wx,i,k + Wwux,i) for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (16)
Using DPR, the cumulative water result Cdx,i that is assigned to the last province obtaining water
under a certain water supply condition (x=1, 2, 3) is defined in equation 17, which should match the
total supply under the same condition x.
Cdx,i = ∑k (Wx,i,k + Wwdx,i) for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (17)
Using PSR, the cumulative water result Cpx,i is assigned to the last province receiving water under a
certain water supply condition (x=1,2,3), which is defined in equation 18, should match the total
supply under the same condition x.
Cpx,i = ∑k (Wx,i,k + Wwpx,i) for x= 1, 2, 3 and i = 1, …., I (18)

The net farm income levels associated with irrigation for the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers,
predicted under each of the three water shortage sharing rules described in the mathematical model,
are illustrated in Figs. 2 and 3. The proportional sharing of shortage water allocation rule (PSR)
clearly performs with the highest level of flexibility for adapting to shortages. With PSR, all provinces
receive water in a severe drought, thus, the water provides a positive advantage enabling the
achievement of economic and food security. In contrast, under shortage conditions with UPR, water is
used primarily by the upstream provinces and lower value crops will continue to be grown in the
upstream provinces while downstream provinces receive lower amounts of water or no water at all. A
similar phenomena is observed with DPR under shortage conditions where the downstream provinces
receive the majority of water and lower value crops continue to be grown in the downstream
provinces.
The net income losses under PSR during shortages have less economic cost caused by drought
when compared with other types of water allocation rules due to the fact that PSR provides the
opportunity for all provinces, under dry and drought conditions, to cultivate part of their farmland with
higher economical crops. This reflected positively on the maximized net benefit in comparison to the
UPR and DPR under the same water availability conditions.
For the dry water supply condition under PSR, farm net income is maintained at 62.3% and 72.3% of
the maximum income under normal water availability conditions for the Tigris and Euphrates,
respectively, as illustrated in Figs. 2 and 3. When considering PSR under drought water conditions,
the farm net income drops approximately 62.2% for the Tigris River and 52.78% for the Euphrates
River as compared to normal water supply conditions.
The downstream provinces suffer the most during water shortages under the common water right
system typically used in Iraq (which is shown as UPR in the model). This is readily apparent from the
model results presented in Figs. 4 and 5. The results show that when drought occurs with UPR, the
lands under production are going to be eliminated or reduced to lower values in downstream
provinces. For example, the total planted area in Iraq with PSR is greater compared to the UPR water
allocation rule by 10% and 21.4% under dry and drought conditions respectively for the Tigris River.
47
This is because rather than the downstream provinces receiving little to none as compared to the
other two water availability scenarios, PSR for the Tigris River ensures all provinces receive some
water. However, the results for the Euphrates River with UPR result in greater values of the total
planted area, approximately 23% and 54% greater for dry and drought conditions respectively, as
compared to the results with the PSR. Nevertheless, the water is used more efficiently for net farm
income with PSR as more water is focused on higher value crops.
300000
Mousil
Kurkuk
250000
Salaheldeen
200000 Deyala
Baghdad-A
$1000/year
150000
Wasit
Meesan
100000
Basra-A
50000
0
Normal Dry Drought Normal Dry Drought Normal Dry Drought
DPR UPR PSR
Fig. 2. Model Results of the regional province income by water sharing arrangement, water
supply, and province, Tigris River, Iraq ($1000/year)
180000 Anbar
160000 Baghdad-B
140000 Babylon
120000 Karbala
Najaf
100000
$1000/year
Qadeseeya
80000
Muthana
60000
Thieqar
40000
Basra-B
20000
0
DPR UPR PSR
Fig. 3. Model results of the regional province income by water sharing arrangement, water
supply, and province, Euphrates River, Iraq ($1000/year)
48
When the dry water availability condition is applied, the model predicts that provinces that do not get
water under UPR will obtain the water when DPR is applied with some exceptions, as illustrated in
Figs. 4 and 5. The provinces of Salaheldeen, Deyala, Baghdad-A, Karbala and Najaf received water
under both UPR and DPR with different quantities since these five provinces are centrally located.
Economically inefficient water allocation will occur with either the use of DPR or UPR since there is no
motivation for specific provinces receiving the majority of water to change. Under an efficient water
sharing system such as PSR, farmers would experience economic incentives to conserve water in a
drought season and provide water to higher valued crops in downstream provinces like Thieqar,
Meesan and Basra.
300
Mousil
250 Kurkuk
Salaheldeen
200
Deyala
150 Baghdad-A
1000ha/year
Wasit
100
Meesan
50 Basra-A
0
DPR UPR PSR
Fig. 4. Model results of the irrigated land in production by province, crop, shortage sharing
arrangement-water supply scenario, Tigris River Basin, Iraq, 2013 (1000ha/yr)
180
Anbar
160
Baghdad-B
140
Babylon
120
Karbala
1000ha/year
100
Najaf
80 Qadeseeya
60 Muthana
40 Thieqar
20 Basra-B
0
DPR UPR PSR
Fig. 5. Model results of the irrigated land in production by province, crop, shortage sharing
arrangement-water supply scenario, Euphrates River Basin, Iraq, 2013 (1000ha/yr)
49
Water shadow prices were computed for both the Tigris and Euphrates River. Shadow prices reflect
the marginal economic value per unit additional water and can be calculated for different water
supplies, provinces, and water allocation systems. Salman et al., [25], described the importance of
shadow prices to assist farmers making investment decisions in developing alternative sources of
water, such as groundwater pumping, water importation, or water conservation. Where the economic
values of water are specified, these water shadow prices represent useful tools for identifying water
policies [28,29,30].
For the Tigris River, the marginal value of water is approximately US$64.75 for each additional 1,000
cubic meters of water, as illustrated in Fig. 6, for both the dry and drought water availability scenarios.
For the Euphrates River (Fig. 7), the marginal value of water is approximately US$43.19 for each
additional 1,000 cubic meters of water under the dry water availability scenario and approximately
US$47.06 when the drought water availability scenario is adopted. Salman et al., [25], demonstrated
that the marginal value of water is approximately US$32 for each additional 1,000 cubic meters of
water in dry conditions and approximately US$93 when severe shortage occurs. This study indicates
that the process of adopting Tigris and Euphrates Rivers as individual basins results in the reduction
of shadow prices under the drought condition while it provides similar values under the dry water
availability condition. Under drought conditions, treating the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers as individual
basins as performed in this study, provides greater flexibility leading to reduce shadow prices.
7000
Mousil
6000
Kurkuk
5000 Salaheldeen
Deyala
4000
($/1000 m3)
Baghdad-A
3000
Wasit
2000 Meesan
Basra-A
1000
0
DPR UPR PSR
Fig. 6. Model results of the shadow price of water by province, crop, shortage arrangement,
and water supply scenario, Tigris River Basin, Iraq, 2013 ($/1000m3)
4.1 Potential for Implementation of PSR in Iraq
Due to the frequent droughts and water shortages which have occurred in Iraq in the last decade, the
potentiality of using PSR is clear based on the model results. Iraq has the majority of the required
hydraulic infrastructure to control and manage its water resources, thus implementation of further
advanced and integrated water management strategies are feasible. Iraq has its own water legislation
and laws which control and manage its water sources to allocate them for users. For instance, the
2008 law of the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) No. 50 provides the MoWR the ability to plan
and invest Iraq’s water resources for greater optimal usage. Furthermore, MoWR has the right to
identify and develop water users to obtain optimal usage. Thus, MoWR has the full right to control the
available water sources and to adopt an optimal water allocation strategy which assures the best
investment of water resources.
50
7000
Anbar
6000 Baghdad-B
Babylon
5000
Karbala
($/1000 m3)
4000 Najaf
Qadeseeya
3000
Muthana
2000
Thieqar
1000 Basra-B
0
DPR UPR PSR
Fig. 7. Model results of the shadow price of water by province, crop, shortage arrangement,
and water supply scenario, Euphrates River Basin, Iraq, 2013 ($/1000m3)
Technically, the adoption of PSR needs advanced control technology to estimate water demand and
to control water release to consumers to ensure water sharing for each one of the partnered
provinces. The development of the recent water management system on both the administrative and
technical aspects is one of the mandatory requirements not only for water conservation, but it is also
required to satisfy the optimum distribution to maximize the potential benefits and to minimize water
losses. Key investments are needed to satisfy that goal, which means more financial support for the
water sector in Iraq to manage future’s water issues. The elimination of ISIS and such other depleting
factors will be necessary before key investments such as advanced control technology can be made.
Iraq is one of the richest water countries in the region; its people have the entrenched belief that the
water supply will never be exhausted. Unfortunately, the water situation is becoming worse due to
well-known reasons such as climate change, rapid population growth, dams in Turkey on the Tigris
and the Euphrates Rivers, water pollution, water resource mismanagement, and the lack of
awareness. Thus, adopting PSR as an alternative strategy, to allocate water among partnered
provinces, will create wide debate and objections, especially among the riparian provinces. This may
occur because of the belief that the river’s upstream provinces have the right to obtain their full water
share regardless of the downstream impacts. While on the agricultural farmlands level, the farmers
who are on the upstream sections of the water distribution canals may object to the adoption of PSR if
adopting such a strategy is optional. However, if it is mandatory, farmers may be persuaded that PSR
assures fair distribution among them and their canal’s tail farmers. Public acceptance of PSR requires
a change in the public’s perception of the facts regarding recent water shortages, which can be
performed by the adoption of capacity building programs to educate the public. Capacity building
programs should not only be limited to farmers, but they should also include representatives of Iraqi
provinces, local councils, and water related decision makers. The federal government currently has
the right to apply laws which can appropriate the optimum distribution of water resources among
riparian governorates. Due to Iraq having most of the required scientists and practical ingredients, in
addition to the water infrastructure, Iraq has the appropriate environment to apply PSR by adopting
developed approaches and technologies to handle the potential future shortages. An effective
example of applied PSR water management strategy among riparian consumers is the one adopted
allocating the Colorado River water resources in the United States. The management strategy
allocates water among eight of the US states, in addition to Mexico, to handle the shortages
51
proportionally [31]. Thus, from this example we can determine that PSR in Iraq would benefit the
agricultural sector.
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
A continuous challenge in water governance is studied through the recent research by examining how
various water appropriation systems may affect profitability at both the farm and basin levels. Three
water allocation systems are compared to measure their impacts on farm income under each of three
different water supply scenarios. An optimization model was applied using general algebraic modeling
system (GAMS) [32] to maximize the net benefit of land production by computing the optimum farm
income depending on the producing of different types of crops.
It is obvious that the proportional sharing of the shortage water allocation rule is the most
economically feasible solution to be adopted because it provides the opportunity to all provinces to
share water proportionally in order to share profits accordingly. It allowed for a 32% and 75% increase
in the total farm income for the Tigris River under dry and drought supply conditions, respectively, as
compared to UPR. In the same way, it allowed for 47% and 83.5% increase in the total farm income
for the Euphrates River under dry and drought supply conditions, respectively, as compared to UPR.
Even when severe droughts occurred, this water allocation rule secured some water for all provinces
in a proportional sharing. It assures some water for all provinces in comparison to all for some, and
none for others. On the other hand, the net income losses under the proportional allocation rule are
less influenced by drought when compared with other types of water allocation rules.
For the case of dry water availability, farm net income is maintained at 62.25% and 72.32% of the
maximum income, for the Tigris and Euphrates respectively, under PSR. Farm net income dropped
from US$1.11 billion and US$0.72 billion in the normal supply scenario to US$0.69 billion and
US$0.52 billion for Tigris and Euphrates River respectively, maintaining an impressive 62.25% and
72.32% of base income levels over all provinces when shortages are shared proportionally.
For the case of drought water availability considering the proportional shortage sharing rule, farm net
income falls from US$1.11 billion and US$0.72 billion in the normal supply conditions to US$0.42
billion and US$0.34 billion annually for both of the rivers respectively. The flexibility in the use of the
proportional sharing rule grants the incentive to all provinces to eliminate their lowest value crops from
production, while continuing to cultivate the highest valued specialty crops that require specialized
soils, management, and market access. With respect to the percent of lands in production, the same
behavior is followed by provinces with cultivated farms. The conclusion of eliminating the low-income
value crops and cultivating crops with a higher value is also described by Salman et al., [25].
Finally, according to the computed shadow prices, water allocation rules, that are closest to
economically efficient, produce shadow prices which are close to equal among provinces. This
similarity of shadow prices is revealed clearly for the system of proportional sharing of shortages for
both dry and severe water shortage conditions.
The results from this study are intended to provide guidance for decision makers in Iraq for potential
future conditions where water supplies are reduced and demonstrate how it is feasible to adopt the
PSR as an alternative and efficient water allocation rule due to its flexibility of providing fair water
resource allocation in drought seasons. Adopting such an optimization modelling approach can assist
decision makers, ensuring that decisions will benefit the economy by taking the advantage of the
followed global experiences to control water allocations in Iraq especially with concern to diminished
water supplies. There will be a need to utilize the modelling tools with changing constraints as water
supplies, crops, and agricultural lands transform in the future.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Special thanks and gratitude to the Iraqi Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research for the
sponsoring and funding Ahmed A. Aljanabi’s graduate study at Arizona State University. We would
also like to show our gratitude to Professor Frank A. Ward of New Mexico State University for his
52
comments on an earlier version of the manuscript and for allowing us to develop and advance his
GAMS code for the NLP model applied in this study.
COMPETING INTERESTS
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54
Ahmed A. Aljanabi
He is a self-employed Water Resources and Environmental Expert. He earned his B.Sc. (2000) in the Civil Engineering, Higher
Diploma (2002) in the Environmental Engineering, and M.Sc. (2007) in Water Resources Engineering from the University of
Technology (Iraq) and the Ph.D. (2019) in the Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering specialized in Water
Resources Engineering from Arizona State University. His professional interest are primarily in water resources engineering,
water resources planning and management, drainage and stormwater design and analysis, hydraulic structures, hydrology,
reclaimed water reuse, and water-food-energy nexus. He worked as a graduate research assistant under the supervision of Dr.
Larry W. Mays and Dr. Peter Fox in the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment at Arizona State
University while he developed water allocation optimization models. He also worked for more than seven years in the Scientific
and Engineering Consulting Bureau at University of Technology (Iraq), which improved his knowledge and enhanced his
practical experience in dealing with water resources issues and related solutions. Furthermore, he has participated in many
national and international conferences, symposiums, webinars, workshops, seminars, and lectures in the fields of water
resources, reclaimed water use, optimization, sustainability, resilience of water resources, and water regulations and policies.
Larry W. Mays
He is a Professor Emeritus of the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment at Arizona State University. He
earned his B.S. (1970) and M.S. (1971) in civil engineering from the University of Missouri at Rolla (now the Missouri School of
Science and Technology) and the Ph.D. in water resources engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
(UIUC) in 1976 and has been bestowed the Distinguished Alumnus Award from UIUC. His academic career has spanned over
43 years, first at the University of Texas at Austin 1976 - 1989 and then continuing for the last 30 years at Arizona State
University. At the University of Texas at Austin, he served as the Director of the Center for Research in Water Resources, and
at Arizona State University, he served as Chair of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department from 1989 to 1996. His
awards have included the 2014 ASCE Julian Hinds Award, the 2015 Warren A. Hall Medal from the Universities Council on
Water Resources, the 2016 ASCE Ven Te Chow Award, the ASCE Arid Lands Hydraulic Engineering Award, and the 6th Prince
Sultan bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Surface Water. He has published extensively his research in water resources
engineering and has been the author, co-author, or editor of 24 books including: co-author of the textbooks Applied Hydrology,
Hydrosystems Engineering and Management, and Groundwater Hydrology; the author of Water Resources Engineering and
Optimal Control of Hydrosystems; and editor-in-chief of Water Resources Handbook, Hydraulic Design Handbook, Water
Distribution Systems Handbook, Stormwater Collection Systems Handbook, and others. One of his major efforts is the study of
ancient water systems and the relation that these systems could have on solving our problems of water resources sustainability
using the concepts of traditional knowledge. He developed the book Ancient Water Technologies.
55
Peter Fox
He is a Professor in the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment in the Ira A. Fulton School of Engineeri
Engineering
at Arizona State University. He is also the graduate program chair for civil engineering. He earned his B.S. (1985) in Chemical
Engineering, M.S. (1985) in Civil and Environmental Engineering, and the Ph.D. (1989) in Civil and Environmental Engineering
from the University of Illinois. He is a Senior Sustainability Scientist at the Global Institute of Sustainability and Inn
Innovation. His
professional interests are primarily in water reuse, biological treatment processes and combined biological
biological-adsorptive
adsorptive systems.
He has focused his work on natural treatment systems and water reuse for the last 12 years. He has recently been ex expanding
his expertise on sustainable water systems to include desalination. He is a member of many professional societies including the t
American Water Works Association, Association of Environmental Engineering Professors, American Society of Civil
Engineers,
rs, Arizona Water Pollution Control Association, International Association of Water Quality and the Water Environment
Federation. He is an associate editor of the American Society of Civil Engineering's Journal of Environmental Engineering. He
was awarded the Quentin Mees Research Awards from the Arizona Water Pollution Control Association in 1991,1994, 1997
and 2003.
_________________________________________________________________________________
): Author(s).
Author The licensee is the publisherr (Book Publisher International).
DISCLAIMER
Environment and Natural Resources Research, 8 ((1): 105-118, 2018.
56
Chapter 4
Phytochemical Screening and Antifungal Activity of

Leaf Extracts of Prosopis africana and Anacardium
occidentale against Macrophomina Root Rot of
Sesamum indicum L. in Benue State, Central Nigeria
Matthew Elaigwu1*, Hyacinth Ocheigwu Apeh Oluma2 and Amana Onekutu3
ABSTRACT
This study investigated the antifungal activity of leaf extracts of Prosopis africana and Anacardium
occidentale against Macrophomina phaseolina, the causal agent of root rot of Sesamum indicum L.
Plants have been found to possess fungicidal properties against various phytopathogenic fungi.
Phytochemical analysis of the two plants showed the presence of alkaloids, saponins, tannins,
flavonoids and anthraquinones in petroleum ether, ethyl acetate, methanol and water extracts. The
effectiveness of the two medicinal plants viz: P. africana and A. occidentale was tested against the
causative agent of root rot of Sesamum indicum L. The effect of plant leaf extracts on mycelia growth
of the test organism shows that both P. africana and A. anacardium reduced the mycelia growth
significantly as compared to the control (Figs. 2, 3, 4). The antifungal property of P. africana and A.
occidentale makes these plants of potential interest for the control of the fungus, Macrophomina
phaseolina.
Keywords: Phytochemical; antifungal screening; Prosopis africana; Anacardium occidentale; leaf

extracts; Macrophomina Phaseolina (Tassi) goid.
1. INTRODUCTION
Chemical applications which are generally used to inhibit the growth of fungi, have become popular
targets of conservationists because they are inherently man- made pollutants, aside from strains that
have developed resistance against known chemicals. This necessitated a shift in the use of
botanical especially in developing economies [1] Plants have been found to possess fungicidal
properties against various phytopathogenic fungi [2]. Elaigwu, et al. [3] earlier reported
that the extracts of Prosopis africana and Anacardium occidentale significantly reduced the incidence
on the development of M. phaseolina root rot disease both in pre-yield and yield
parameters. Similarly, the extracts of pulverized bark of Prosopis africana and leaves of
N. latifolia inhibited both radial mycelia growth and sclerotial formation of Macrophomina phaseolina
by 100% [4].
It has been reported that ether extract and ethanolic extracts of Anacardium occidentale leaves
exhibited significant antimicrobial and antifungal activity [5]. Similarly, Ezike [6] reported the medicinal
use of almost all parts of Prosopis africana tree; the leaves in particular are used for the treatment of
headache and toothache as well as various other health ailments. Leaves and bark are combined to
treat rheumatism. Remedies for skin diseases, caries, fevers and eyewashes are obtained from the
bark. The roots are a diuretic and are used to treat gonorrhea, tooth and stomach-ache, dysentery
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Department of Integrated Science, College of Education, Oju, Benue State, Nigeria.
2
Department of Botany, Federal University of Agriculture Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria.
3
Department of Zoology, Federal University of Agriculture Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: Elaigwumatthew1986@gmail.com;
Phytochemical Screening and Antifungal Activity of Leaf Extracts of Prosopis africana and Anacardium occidentale against
Macrophomina Root Rot of Sesamum indicum L. in Benue State, Central Nigeria
and bronchitis. In Mali, the leaves, bark, twigs and roots are used to treat and relieve bronchitis,
dermatitis, tooth decay, dysentery, malaria and stomach cramps. In Ghana, boiled roots serve as a
poultice for sore throat, root decoction for toothache, and bark as a dressing or lotion for wounds or
cuts. In Ghana, the pod ashes of P. africana are source of potash for soap making [6].
Anacardium occidentale (Cashew) (family. Anacardiaceae), native to Brazil, is an evergreen tree

found everywhere in Benue state, Nigeria. Anacardium plants have gained increasing attention due
to its nutritional and biological properties. The nut, cashew nut is one of the highly nutritive dry fruits
used all over the world. It has high vitamin C, nearly five times higher than oranges and also with high
minerals content. The fruits or seeds of the cashew are consumed whole, roasted, shelled and salted,
in Madeira wine, or mixed in chocolates. Bark and leaves are rich in tannins [7]. Stems exude a clear
gum used in pharmaceuticals and as substitute for gum Arabic. Juice turns black on exposure to air
and provides an indelible ink [8]. Literature have implicated the bark and leaves with diverse types of
phytochemicals with beneficial therapeutic effects [9,10] and in traditional treatment of many diseases
including but not limited to vagina discharge, urinary disorders, diabetes, weakness, muscular debility,
asthma, eczema, psoriasis, scrofula, dyspepsia, genital problems, bronchitis, cough, intestinal colic,
leishmaniasis, veneral diseases, commom diarrhea [11]. Cashew plants have been used for centuries
as folk medicine in South America and West Africa. Quite a number of biological properties have been
cited, that possess antimicrobial, antioxidant, anti-ulcernogenic and anti-inflammatory effects have
drawn public attention. In Nigeria, A. occidentale has also been used to treat cardiovascular disorders;
while it is used as infusion for currying ailments in Brazil [12].
The increase in fungal resistance and the incidence of infections have led to tests aiming at evaluation
of antifungal potential of A. occidentale against primary and opportunistic pathogenic fungi. The bark
extract of A. occidentale presented action against Candida tropicalis and C. stellatoidea
strains. Bahadur et al. [13] found that A. occidentale bark methanol extract reduced conidia
germination of Erysiphe pisi in humid chambers. Disc diffusion assay revealed the action of
burnt cashew pulp extract on Fusarium oxysporium, F. moniliforme and F. lateritium growth
decrease [14].
Among the fungi diseases, the root rot caused by M. phaseolina remains to be a challenging task in
terms of management, since it is soil borne in nature. Many synthetic fungicides have shown promise
in the control of Sesame disease [15]; however, the high cost of such chemicals forbids their
use by poor resource farmers. Furthermore, continuous use of these chemicals may pose
serious health hazards to the applicator as well as to consumer of the treated material as toxic
forms persist in soil and contaminate the whole environment beside development of resistant
strains [16]. These facts necessitate the search for alternatives in plant products that are
environmentally friendly, many of which have been reported in the control of several plant diseases [4]
[17,18].
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS
2.1 Collection and Identification of Plant Materials
Fresh leaves of Prosopis africana and Anacardium occidentale were collected from the premises of
Federal University of agriculture Makurdi, Nigeria in March, 2012. Taxonomic identification of the
plant samples were authenticated at the Department of Biological Sciences University of Agriculture
Makurdi. Voucher specimens were preserved in the Herbarium collection of the Department of
Biological Sciences, University of Agriculture, Makurdi.
2.2 Isolation of the Fungal Pathogen
The pathogen, Macrophomina phaseolina (Tassi) Goid used for this experiment was isolated
according to the method of Oluma & Elaigwu [4] and confirmed by International Mycological Institute
(IMI), Kew Survey, England.
58
2.3 Preparation of Czapeck-Dox-Agar Medium (CDA)
The Czapeck-dox-agar medium (CDA) comprised of the following; Sodium nitrate (NaNO3) 3.0 gm,
Ferrous sulphate (FeSO4·7H2O) 0.01 gm, Di-potassium hydrogen orthophosphate (K2HpO4) 1 gm,
Magnesium sulphate (MgSO4·7H2O) 0.5 gm, Potassium chloride (Kcl) 0.01 gm, 20 gm each of
glucose and plain agar and sterile distilled water 1000 cm3 and autoclaved at 15 p.s.i. (121°C for 15
minutes).
2.4 Preparation of Pure Culture
Pure cultures of the pathogens were obtained by sub-culturing colonies growing from the plated root
tissues on Czapecks agar (CDA) medium.
2.5 Inoculation of the Test Organism
To study the effect of plant extracts on the growth and sporulation of the fungus, the CDA-plant
extracts was inoculated respectively at the centre of the plates with 2 mm mycelia discs of the test
fungus. The mycelia plugs were obtained with 2 mm cork borer lifted from the margin of actively
growing culture of the test fungi. These were placed upside down in centre of each plate. The
inoculated plates were incubated at 28°C ± 2°C for 6 days. Plates of medium without plant extracts
served as control.
2.6 Effect of Plant Extracts on Mycelium Growth
The poisoned food method was used in the preliminary screening of aqueous extracts for their
antifungal properties evaluation. First, the mycelia growths were evaluated in 60 mm Petri dishes
filled with CDA solid medium amended with 20% aqueous extracts of each plant. Next, the center of
each Petri dish was inoculated with 5 mm diameter disc of fungal mycelium, taken from pure culture
(7 days old). The petridish without plant extract served as control. Then, all inoculated dishes were
incubated at 25°C for 6 days (Figs. 1, 2, 3, 4).
2.7 Extraction of Plant Materials
The two plant materials (leaves of A. occidentale and P. africana) were sun-dried for 2 weeks, after
which it was ground to a uniform powder.
2.8 Petroleum Ether Extraction
Two hundred g each of Anarcadium occidentale and Prosopis africana were separately extracted
with petroleum ether in 450 ml. Each of the plant material was dissolved in 450 ml of the solvent in a
sterile conical flask at room temperature for 24 hours. The conical flask was covered with cotton
wool, wrapped with aluminium foil. The extracts were filtered after 24 hours, first through cheese cloth
and then through a Whatmann filter paper No. 42 (125 mm). The dark brownish, light brown and
brownish filtrate were obtained and transferred into a labeled specimen bottle. The powdered plant
materials was removed and spread on the laboratory bench to dry for two weeks.
This experiment was similarly performed for ethyl acetate and methanol extraction (Table 1).
2.9 Water Extraction

The specimens were washed with several changes of sterile distilled water and were later pulverized
using pestle and mortar according to the method of [19]. The crushed leaves were separately
plunged in required quantity of water (1:1 w/v) in a beaker and boiled at 100°C for 10 minutes. Crude
extracts of the leaves were obtained after 24 hours in the laboratory at 28°C ± 2°C by filtering the
infusions through cheese cloth and then through a Whatmann filter paper No. 42 (125 mm) which
formed a standard plant extracts (100%).
59
Table 1. Petroleum ether extract of Prosopis africana (leaves)
S/No Test Observation Inference

1 Draggen dorff’s and Mayer’s reagents No turbidity or precipitation Alkaloids absent
2 Frothing test Frothing did not persist on Saponins absent
warming
3 Ferric chloride reagent test. No blue-green precipitate formed Tannins absent
4 Dil. Ammonia and conc.H2So4 test. No yellow colouration formed on Flavonoids
standing. absent
5. H2SO4, chloroform and Ammonia test. The resulting solution changes Anthraquinones
from brown to colourless present.
3. PHYTOCHEMICAL SCREENING OF THE LEAF EXTRACTS
Phytochemical screenings were performed using standard procedures [20,21] with petroleum ether,
ethyl acetate, methanol and aqueous leaf extract for both Prosopis africana and Anarcadium
occidentale extract as shown in Table 1.
4. RESULTS
The phytochemical screening revealed that the presence of alkaloids, Saponins and tanins in
Prosopis africana leaf extracts when ethyl acetate, and methanol were used as extraction solvents
(Table 2). Similarly, all the text compounds, alkaloids, saponins, tanins, flavonoids and anthraquinines
were observed in methanol extraction solvent of both P. africana and A. occidentale (Table 2). It is
noteworthy that petroleum ether would only show the presence of anthroquinones in both leaves
extracts of P. africana and A. occidentale (Figs. 2 and 3).
On effect of plant extracts, a significant (P≤.05) reduction of mycelial growth of M. phaseolina who
exhibited by P. africana (34.2%) (Fig. 3) followed by A. occidentale (32.7%) (Fig. 4) as against control
plate (without plant extract, 100%) (Fig. 2).
Table 2. Phytochemical screening of PEE, EAE, MEE and ALE for P. africana extracts (leaves)
S/NO Test Reagent PEE EAE MEE AWE

1 Alkaloids Dragendorff’s - + + +
and Mayer’s Reagents
2 Saponins NaHC03aq - + + +
Emulsion foaming test.
3 Tannins 5% FeCl3aq10% KOHaq - + + -
4 Flavonoids Dil. Ammonia and conc.H2SO4 - - + +
5 Anthraquinones H2SO4, Chloroform and Ammonia. + - + -
Table 3. Phytochemical screening of PEE, EAE, MEE and ALE for Anarcadium occidentale
extracts (leaves)
S/NO Test Reagent PEE EAE MEE AWE

1 Alkaloid Dragendorff’s and Mayer’s - + + -
Reagents
2 Saponins NaHC03aq Emulsion foaming - + + -
test.
3 Tannins 5% FeCl3aq and 10% KOHaq - - + +
4 Flavonoids Dil. Ammonia andconc.H2SO4 - + + +
5 Anthraquinones H2SO4, Chloroform and + - + +
Ammonia.
Legend: + = positive. - = negative; PEE = Petroleum ether extract; EAE = Ethyl acetate extract; MEE = Methanol
extract; AWE = Aqueous Leaf extract
60
Fig. 1. A pure culture of the test organism (Macrophomina

(Macrophomina phaseolina)
Fig. 2. Control experiment
Fig. 3. Prosopis africana
61
Fig.
Fig 4. Anacardium occidentale
5. DISCUSSION
The study has demonstrated the antifungal activity of Prosopis africana and Anarcadium occidentale
against Macrophomina phaseolina. This indicates their broad range of activity. These results agree
with those reported by Elaigwu et al. [3] that extracts of P. africana and A. occidentale significantly
reduced the incidence on the development of M. Phaseolina root rot disease both in pre pre-yield and
yield parameters. This is consistent with the earlier reports that many plant products contain
fungitoxic constituents
uents that have the potential to control plant diseases [13
[13,22,23].
23]. Apart from this
indication of antifungal activity here, in Nigeria, the decoction of root and stem of Anacardium
occidentale has been used as anti -inflammatory agent and anti-diarrhoea [7]. ]. Similarly, the
antimicrobial activities of Anacardium occidentale extracts have been confirmed [9,24,25]
25].
Omojasola and Awe [26] observed the antimicrobial activity of the leaf of Anacardium occidentale and
Gossypium hirsutum against Escherichia coli, coli Shigella dysenteriae, Salmonella typimurium,
Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa.
aeruginosa A. occidantale hydro ethanolic extracts (leaf
bark) showed positive effects against Escherichia coli, Staphylococcas aureus, Enterobacter species,
Streptococcus pneumoniae Corynebacterium pyogenes
pyogenes, Enterococcus faecalis, Actnobacter species
species,
and multi resistant P. aeruginosa from 6 to 14 mm [27].
In the study by Akinpelu [28], the methanolic bark extract (60%) exhibited antimicrobial activity
against 13 out of 15 bacterial isolates, obtaining activity against Shigella dysenteriae and Klebsiella
pneumoniae.. Melo et al. [29] demonstrated the action of of the stem bark of A. occidentale against
Streptococcus mitis, Streptococcus mutans and Streptococcus sanquis. Silva et al. [30] showed that
methicillin resistant and sensitive S. aureus samples were sensitive to stem bark extract of A.
occidentale. The phytochemical
ytochemical analysis of the two plants extracts indicated that alkaloids, saponins,
tannins, flavonoids and anthraquinones were detected in various components of plant products. For
instance, Lale [31] reported that the bioactivity of plant products was related
related to the chemical nature of
their active constituents, such as alkaloids, saponins, tannins, flavonoids and glycoside. These
finding confirms the work of Tewari & Singh [32] that the valuable medicinal properties of different
plants are due to presence of several constituents i.e. saponines, tannins, alkaloids, alkenyl phenols,
glycol alkaloids, flavonoids, sesquiterpenes lactones, terpenoids and phorbol esters. The presence of
high amount of tannins and moderate saponins in Anacardium occidentale agrees s with the report of
Okorie et al. [33] and review by Salehi et al.al [9]. The methanolic extracts of both plants show the
presence of all the active ingredients. This might be due to the ability of the solvent to extract more of
the active ingredients (bioactive
ctive compounds) from the plant materials. This is similar to the findings of
Arekemase et al. [34] that the high potency of ethanol extracts might be connected with the extraction
solvent and that ethanol has been shown to have a greater extractive power than water.
62
The presence of flavonoids in methanolic extract of Anarcadium occidentale agrees with the earlier
work of Rajesh et al. [35] that the ethanolic extract of cashew nuts revealed the presence of
phytochemical compounds such as triterpenoids, phenolic, flavonoids, xanthoproptein and
carbohydrate. The extracts obtained from the flowers, leaves and stem bark of Anacardium
occidentale are rich in bioactive secondary metabolities, exerting a potential antimicrobial effects
against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria as well as fungi [9,36]. Similarly, it was also
observed that A. occidentale has important biotechnological potential as a source of compounds with
broad-spectrum antimicrobial activity and of antioxidant compounds to be used in the drug, food and
cosmetic industry [9,36].
Oxidation process produces free radicals which contained unpaired electron. They can cause DNA
damages and attack lipids and proteins. Antioxidants can protect free radical-induced damages by
transferring electrons or hydrogen. Thus, foods with antioxidants provide defense against free radical
damage in the body and may prolong the shelf life of food products. A.occidentale has been found to
contain high antioxidant activity [37] and phenolic content as assessed by 2,2-diphenyl-1-
picrylhydrozyl (DPPH) radical scavenging, potassium ferricyanide, ferric reducing antioxidant power
(FRAP), ferrous ion chelating ability, ferrozine, Folin- Ciocalten, aluminium chloride and molybdate
assays (Tan and Chan [38]. The chemical analysis of Prosopis africana is confirmed to contain
alkaloids, beta-phenethylamine (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10904169) and tryptamine
[39]. It was confirmed that phytochemical screening of Prosopis africana revealed the presence of
tannins, saponins, anthraquinones, cardiac-glycosides, carbohydrate and steroids, these extracts
showed antihelmminthic activity against the disease schistosomiasis [40]. Similarly, Badamasi [41]
confirmed that phytochemical screening of the stem bark extract of Prosopis africana revealed the
presence of alkaloids, tannins, glycosides, Cardiac glycosides, saponin, volatile oil and steroids had
anti-malaria potentials. Arshad & Rehman, [42] reported that a significant reduction in fungal biomass
was recorded due to different concentrations of the leaf extracts of E. citrodora and that organic
solvent extracts of allelopathatic especially chloroform contain antifungal constituents and can
effectively be used for the management of M. phaseolina. Similarly, Jabeen [43] observed the fungal
activity of alcoholic and chloroform extracts of leaves of E. citriodora against A. rabiei. Prince and
Prabakaran [44], demonstrated that Vitex negundo showed maximum antifungal activity against the
pathogenic fungus Colletotrichum falcatum.
According to Shadab [45] Cymbopogon citratus (Lemon grass) oil is used as

a pesticide (http://www.pjsir.org/documents/journals/01042011130700_PJSIR-VOL.35-(6)1992-
Abstract.pdf) and as preservative. Kareru [46] reported that Thevetia peruviana contains a milky sap
containing a compound called the vetin (http://www.academicjournals.org/article/article1380870360
_Kareru%20et%20al.pdf) in its natural form is extremely poisonous, as well as all parts of the plants,
especially the seeds. Similarly, Ogunbosoye & Babayemi [47] confirmed that the leaves of
Newbouldia leavis have antibiotic, bacteristatic and fungistatic properties. Arshad & Rehmen, [48]
observed that the leaf extracts of allelopathatic trees especially ethyl acetate and chloroform extracts
of A. indica contain natural fungicides which can be used for the management of M. phaseolina.
Tannins isolated from medicinal plants possess remarkable toxic activity against bacteria and fungi
and may assume pharmacological importance in future [48]. This finding corroborates with the
reviewed work of Salehi, et al [9] that Anacardium occidentale plant consists of antioxidant,
antimicrobial, and anticancer properties with emphasis to their pharmacological and clinical efficacy.
Further studies are, however, necessary to determine the minimum concentration of the extracts
required for maximum disease control as well as the frequency and mode of application of the
different plant extracts. Investigations into the active ingredients of the extracts and the mode of
action are also necessary.
6. CONCLUSION
The effect of plant extracts on mycelia growth of the test organism shows that both P. africana and A.
anacardium significantly reduced the mycelia growth as compared to the control (Figs. 2, 3, 4). The
phytochemical analysis of the plant extracts shows alkaloids, saponins products, tannins, flavonoids
and anthraquinones. The activities of these antioxidants in the plant extracts probably contribute to
63
the effectiveness of these extracts and could be possible to be exploited for effective management of
root rot diseases of Beniseed (Sesamum indicum) caused by Macrophomina phaseolina.
COMPETING INTERESTS
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66
Dr. Matthew Elaigwu

Department of Integrated Science, College of Education, Oju, Benue State, Nigeria.
He hails from Adum-Otukpa in Ogbadibo Local Government Area of Benue State. He holds NCE in Biology/Chemistry (1991)
from College of Education Ankpa, Kogi State Nigeria, B.Sc. (Ed) Biological Science (2000), M.Sc. Environmental Science
(2014), Ph.D. Environmental Science (2020) from the prestigious Federal University of Agriculture Makurdi, Benue State
Nigeria. He is currently a Principal Lecturer at the Department of Integrated Science, College of Education, Oju. Benue State
Nigeria. His research focuses on Mycotoxins and Biopesticides. His recent publications are: “In vivo and in vitro activities of
some plants extracts on Macrophomina phaseolina (Tassi) Goid- the causal agent of charcoal root rot of Sesame in Benue
state, Nigeria (2017)”. “Phytochemical and Antifungal Activity of Leaf Extracts of Prosopis africana and Anacardium occidentale
against Macrophomina Root Rot of Sesamum indicum L. In Benue State, Central Nigeria (2018)”. “Screening and
Phytochemical Analysis of Some Plants Extracts against Aflatoxin Producing Fungi in Sesame, Benue State, Nigeria (2020)”.
He is the zonal coordinator of Science Teachers Association of Nigeria (STAN) Benue State, Nigeria. He has attended and
presented his research work at several conferences. Recently, he represented Nigeria at the International Conference on Plant
Protection Congress (IPPC 2019) Hyderabad, Telengana, India. He is an active member of the Nigerian Society of Plant
Protection (NSPP). He has held the position of Head of Department, Integrated Science, College of Education Oju (2013-2016).
His numerous achievements in his research work has earned him a potential reviewer of several local and international
journals.
Prof. Hyacinth Ocheigwu Apeh Oluma

Department of Botany, Federal University of Agriculture Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria.
He hails from Oiji, Apa local government area of Benue State Nigeria, he was born on 10th October, 1959. He attended
University of Jos, Jos and University of Ibadan where he obtained a B. Sc. Botany Second Class (Honours) Upper division
in1983, M.Sc. Microbiology/Plant Pathology (1988) and Ph.D Plant Pathology respectively (1992). He rose through ranks to
become a professor with the University of Agriculture, Makurdi, Benue State Nigeria. He has authored/co-authored several
publications. He has attracted grants from local and international agencies such as European Union Science Research Grant
(Grant No. 10.215/332), Federal University of Agriculture Training Grant/Fellowship, and Nigeria Agricultural Research Project.
He has held several leadership positions including, Head of Department, Dean and chairman/member of several committees;
and was appointed as Rector, Benue State Polytechnic Ugbokolo, Nigeria from 2012 - 2016. His research focus is centred on
the identification and management of crop plant diseases. During this journey he used chemical fertilizers in the management
of root rot of pawpaw Carica papaya, (Pythium aphanidermatum) that has ravaged pawpaw cultivation in Nigeria; identification
of banana cultivars with significant resistance to black sigatoka leaf spot (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) in Nigerian Guinea Savanna.
He was the first to report Corynespora cassiicola leaf spot of pawpaw in Nigeria in 1993. Due to inherent environmental
problems associated with chemical sprays, He has established through his research, the use of plant derived extracts in the
effective management of several crop plants diseases. These plants include Parkia africana, Anacardium occidentalis,
Calotropis procera, Psorospermum febrifugum, Eucalyptus globulus, Ocimum gratissimum, Eucalyptus camaldulence, Nauclea
latifolia, Azadirachta indica, Tivetia peruviana. Some of these findings were documented in his recent inaugural lecture titled
“Indigenous and Endogenous Management of Plant Diseases versus Turnkey Solutions” at the University of Agriculture,
Makurdi in May 22nd 2019.
67
Dr. Amana Onekutu

Department of Zoology, Federal University of Agriculture Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria.
He is an Associate Professor of Plant Protection at the Federal University of Agriculture, Makurdi. He obtained his Ph.D from
the prestigious University of Ibadan where he focused on the Biology and Management of Leucinides orbonalis, the fruit and
shoot borer of Solanum gilo. His recent research interest has focused majorly on non-chemical control of pests of both Field
crops and stored grains using sole plant products or combinations of them. He has been involved with the USDA Risk Analysis
Workshop and facilitated in Sanitary/Phytosanitary Workshop of the Agency. He is actively involved with the Nigerian Society of
Plant Protection and the Entomological Society of Nigeria. He combines teaching and research with administrative duties as the
Deputy Dean of the Post-graduate School and as a member of the University senate.
_________________________________________________________________________________
© Copyright (2021): Author(s). The licensee is the publisher (Book Publisher International).
DISCLAIMER
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 6(7): 66-76, 2018.
68
Chapter 5
Assessment and Investigation of Sugar Cane

Bagasse Ash as a Binding Material for the
Construction Industry
E. Basika1, J. Kigozi1* and N. Kiggundu1
DOI: 10.9734/bpi/magees/v3/2101E
ABSTRACT
Sugarcane bagasse ash (SCBA) is a by-product of the sugar factories produced after burning
sugarcane bagasse in the production of electricity. The sugarcane bagasse is produced after the
extraction of all economical sugar from sugarcane. The disposal of this material is a common
environmental problem in factories producing electricity from sugarcane. In Kakira Sugar Limited
(KSL) about 61,000 tons / yr. of SCBA is produced and only about 30,000 tons / yr of this is utilized,
and the remaining is damped which becomes an environmental hazard. This research was,
conducted to examine the potential of bagasse ash as a cement replacing material in construction
industry. The idea of using SCBA as a building material has generated additional cash flow for the
sugarcane processing mills. Bagasse ash samples were collected from KSL and its chemical
properties were investigated. The compressive strength of mortars containing ordinary Portland
cement and SCBA in proportions of 0%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30% and 40% as a cement
replacement were investigated. Three replicates with the bagasse ash replacing ordinary Portland
cement in the above mentioned proportions were prepared and tested. The results showed that
ordinary Portland cement can be replaced by SCBA up to 20% without affecting the compressive
strength of the mortar at a test age of 28 days. These findings suggest that replacement of cement
with SCBA could results in the reduction in cost of construction. Hence it can be concluded that it is
safe to replace cement with sugar cane bagasse ash up to 20%.
Keywords: Cement; strength; environment; electricity; Kakira.
1. INTRODUCTION
Due to an increasingly high demand of electricity in Uganda, Sugar industries devised means of
producing electricity to supplement on the national grid by burning bagasse to produce heat used to
generate steam [1], which is then used to run steam turbines. Some of the sugar producing industries
in Uganda include; Kakira Sugar limited (KSL), G.M sugar Ltd, Kinyara sugar, Sugar Corporation of
Uganda Limited (SCOUL), Kaliro sugar. KSL, SCOUL and Kinyara sugar use bagasse to generate
electricity and some of the sugar factories that do not produce electricity sell their bagasse to the ones
with the facilities to generate electricity. In the electricity generating sugar companies, the waste
products of electricity production include; CO2 condensed steam and ash among others, carbon
dioxide is discharged into the atmosphere and condensed steam is recycled to save energy however,
ash remains as a waste.
Ash is the powdery residue that remains after burning a substance [2]. In the broad sense ash is a
solid residue of various sizes that includes both organic and inorganic material. The properties of ash
resulting from burning vegetation i.e. porosity, bulk density, particle density, particle size, water
repellency, pH and cat ion content vary according to temperature and combustion processes [3,4].
The inorganic compounds in ash include silicates and oxides, which result from high temperature
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Department of Agricultural and Bio-Systems Engineering, Makerere University, P.O.7062 Kampala, Uganda.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: jbulyakigozi@yahoo.com;
Assessment and Investigation of Sugar Cane Bagasse Ash as a Binding Material for the Construction Industry
combustion processes of burning plant materials. The estimated bulk production of bagasse after
juice extraction of sugarcane is 600 Mt, which is between 40 and 50% of the total weight of annually
produced sugarcane in the world [5,6].
In Uganda, SCBA has been used as a fertilizer [7] and as a binder in bricks production [8]. KSL being
the biggest producer of electricity among the electricity generating sugar industries, produces 50 MW
of electricity, and has an excess of about 30,000 tonnes of SCBA per year of the 610,000 tonnes
produced. SCBA is spread onto sugarcane plantations as fertilizer [9]. This residue, sugarcane
bagasse ash (SCBA), requires disposal. One of the most common applications for this ash is its use
as a soil fertilizer [10,11]. However, the nutrition content of SCBA is not known and thus the
effectiveness of this ash to enhance yields of sugarcane is doubted. It is perceived that the spreading
of SCBA in the plantation is just a way of discarding the residue.
In Brazil, SCBA has been used as a cement additive to improve on the strength of structures [12]. The
idea of using SCBA as a building material has generated additional cash flow for the sugarcane
processing mills. Studies carried out in India showed that SCBA can be used as a pozzolanic
material due to its properties [13,14]. It was found out in India that when cement was replaced by
SCBA up 15% it produced significant results showing an increase in the strength [15]. The idea of
replacing cement with agricultural waste is also a good solution towards decreasing the amount of
CO2 emitted as a result of cement usage by the construction industry [16]. The purpose of this work
was to explore if SCBA at KSL had economic benefits as a cement replacement material that can be
used in the building industry.
2.1 Source of Material and Preparation
The SCBA used in this research was obtained from Kakira sugar limited, which is located in Jinja-
eastern Uganda. Cement manufactured by Tororo Cement Limited was purchased as a material for
laboratory experiments in mortar work. Silt (finer than 75 μm) according to [17] was used in the
experiment. This silt increases the strength and workability of mortar [18].
2.2 Sample Preparation and Mix Combinations
To eliminate carbon, the samples (Table 1) were re-heated in a furnace at about 500ºC and the
changes in weight showed 66% average decrease. During the preparation of the experiment, cement,
water and sand were mixed in ratios of 1:2:3 [19]. The samples were mixed with sand and water then
cast into cylindrical molds of diameter 4 mm and a height of 4 mm in preparation for compressive
strength tests.
Table 1. Sample preparation
Treatments T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7
Portland cement (wt. %) 100 90 85 80 75 70 60
SCBA (wt. %) 0 10 15 20 25 30 40
All mortar samples were prepared and the water cement ratio was fixed in order to determine the
effect of SCBA on the compressive strength of the mortars. The blocks were removed from moulds
after casting for 24 hours then allowed to cure for 3 weeks in open air but kept away from direct
sunlight. With saturation of sprayed water, the specimen were prepared for compressive strength
testing according to the standard testing method for compressive strength of hydraulic mortars ASTM
C 109 [20] by a PTE universal testing machine from china.
2.3 Chemical Composition

Tests were carried for the elements that characterize the nature of SCBA [21] which included; Silicon
dioxide (SiO2), Aluminum oxide (Al2O3), Iron oxide (Fe2O3), Sodium oxide (Na2O), Potassium oxide
70
(K2O) Calcium oxide (CaO), Magnesium oxide (MgO), Sulfur trioxide (SO3), Loss on ignition (LOI).
The chemical composition of SCBA was determined by a TOPOSUN flame photometer from china
[22] and prominent type atomic absorption photometer from china.
Results from the analysis of the chemical composition of SCBA are shown in Table 2. It was observed
that the biggest composition of ash is silicon dioxide. This plays the major role in binding as it forms
complexes that include Tricalcium silicate and Dicalcium silicate which are the major components of
cement hence making it a material with good binding properties. These results are similar to studies
done in India and Brazil [15,23,24] who found out that silicon dioxide is the major component of
SCBA.
Table 2. Results for chemical analysis
Element SiO2 CaO Al2O3 Fe2O3 K2O Na2O MgO

Composition (%) 62.10 1.00 5.54 5.42 2.22 0.81 1.12
Table 3. Compressive strength and deflection
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7
z
Deflection 1.245d 2.135bc 4.275a 2.907b 2.310bc 2.333bc 1.060d
Compressive strength 1.945bc 2.533ab 3.125a 2.556ab 1.434cd 1.118d 0.783d
z; elements with the same letter are not significantly different (p≤0.05)
2.4 Determination of Strength of SCBA
In this study, compressive strength was determined using a PTE tensile testing machine from china.
The specimen of height (4 mm) and diameter (4 mm) were measured and specimens labeled. They
were placed in the grips and the machine was adjusted accordingly then set to run and the results
were read and recorded. Samples were prepared by replacing cement with different amounts of
SCBA. Where A with 100% cement composition was control experiment, B with 90%, C with 85%, D
with 80%, E with 75%, F with 70% and G with 60%. Specimen with cement composition less than
70% were ignored since these would have very small values of strength [14].
A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed in R Studio software for significant
differences (p ≤ 0.05) among treatment. Treatment means were separated using a Duncan’s Multiple
Range Test to determine treatment effects.
3.1 Determination of Strength
The compressive strength for all the treatments and replicates show that maximum strength was
obtained at treatment T3 with 15% composition of SCBA as shown in Table 3 above.
On analysis of variances, the results from the treatments were statistically significant. When data was
ran through the Duncan test using R studio, it showed that treatments T2, T3, T4 and T5 produced
statistically similar strengths which implies that replacement of cement with SCBA from 10% to 25%
produces the same compressive strength for all treatments which are contrary to results obtained by
other researchers. According to [14,25,26], concrete containing up to 30%, 10% and 20% SCBA
respectively had higher compressive strength than the control concrete.
3.2 Determining the Deflection
Deflection is the degree to which a structural element is displaced under a load, which may refer to an
angle or distance. Deflection is directly proportional to the compressive strength; therefore, it gives a
measure of how much a material bends before exceeding the elastic limit. When the data was ran
71
through the Duncan test using R studio, it showed that treatments T2, T4, T5 and T6 have statistically
similar means. Deflection being a function of strength, this implies that when cement is replaced by
SCBA from 10% to 25% we obtain statistically similar compressive strengths.
4. CONCLUSIONS
In this study, the focus was on how to put use to bagasse ash and reduce on the costs in the
construction industry. The results indicated that when cement is replaced by sugar cane bagasse ash
up to 20%, there is a noticeable increase in compressive strength of mortar. Maximum compressive
strength was observed at 15% cement replacement, however, there was no significant difference
between the compressive strength at 15% and that at both 10% and 20%. Hence it can be concluded
that it is safe to replace cement with sugar cane bagasse ash up to 20%.
COMPETING INTERESTS
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25(2):197-207.
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for fire-altered plant matter, in Sediment records of biomass burning and global change.
Springer. 1997;9-22.
3. Bodí MB, et al. Types of ash resultant from burning different vegetation and from varied
combustion processes. SAGVNTVM Extra. 2011;11:53-54.
4. Gee GW, Or D. 2.4 Particle-size analysis. Methods of Soil Analysis. 2002;4(598):255-293.
5. Shafiq N, Hussein AAE, Nuruddin MF, Al Mattarneh H. Effects of sugarcane bagasse ash on
the properties of concrete. P. I. Civil Eng. Eng. Su. 2018;171:123–132.
6. Amin MN, Ashraf M, Kumar R, Khan K, Saqib D, Ali SS, Khan S. Role of Sugarcane bagasse
ash in developing sustainable engineered cementitious composites. Frontiers in Materials.
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7. Phani Kumar B, Sharma RS. Effect of fly ash on engineering properties of expansive soils.
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Intenational Journal of Engineering Trends and Technology. 2013;4(10).
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NPK in calcareous soil. Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology. 2008; 30(3):281.
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Waste Management. 2010;30(6):1114–1122.
11. Andreão PV, Suleiman AR, Cordeiro GC, Nehdi ML. Sustainable use of sugarcane bagasse
ash in cement-based materials. Green Materials. 2019;7(2):61-70.
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Waste Management. 2010;30(6):1114-1122.
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Concrete Research. 2000;30(9):1485-1488.
14. Srinivasan R, Sathiya K. Experimental study on bagasse ash in concrete. International Journal
for Service Learning in Engineering, Humanitarian Engineering and Social Entrepreneurship.
2010;5(2):60-66.
15. Ganesan K, Rajagopal K, Thangavel K. Evaluation of bagasse ash as supplementary
cementitious material. Cement and Concrete Composites. 2007;29(6):515-524.
16. Worrell E, et al. Carbon dioxide emissions from the global cement industry 1. Annual Review of
Energy and the Environment. 2001; 26(1):303-329.
17. Kettler T, Doran JW, Gilbert T. Simplified method for soil particle-size determination to
accompany soil-quality analyses. Soil Science Society of America Journal. 2001;65(3):849-852.
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18. Sarangapani G, Venkatarama Reddy B, Jagadish K. Brick-mortar bond and masonry

compressive strength. Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering. 2005;17(2):229-237.
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20. Committee A. ASTM C 618 standard specification for coal fly ash and raw or calcined natural
pozzolan for use as a mineral admixture in concrete. Annual Book of ASTM Standard, Section.
2004;4.
21. Buregyeya A, et al. exploratory characterization of volcanic ash sourced from Uganda as a
Pozzolanic Material in Portland Cement Concrete; 2013.
22. Eubank WR, Bogue RH. Studies on the flame photometer for the determination of Na2O and
K2O in Portland Cement. Portland Cement Association Fellowship; 1949.
23. Jacobsen J, et al. Nano-scale hydrogen-bond network improves the durability of greener
cements. Scientific Reports. 2013;3.
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Procedia Engineering. 2011;14(0):1149-1156.
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in concrete. Construction and Building Materials. 2009;23(11):3352-3358.
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mortars. Chiang Mai Journal of Science. 2013;40(1):126-134.
_________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER
Journal of Global Ecology and Environment, 2(4): 205-208, 2015.
73
Chapter 6
Recent Advancement on Radical Urban

Development in the Egyptian Desert
S. Abouelfadl1*, K. Ouda2, A. Atia3, N. Al-Amir3, M. Ali3, S. Mahmoud3, H. Said3
and A. Ahmed3
ABSTRACT
Gardens’ City is a new city in newly discovered area in the Egyptian western desert, which is rich to
be developed. It lies in new Farafra Oasis. The site has different potential aspects for sustainable
development; it has agricultural and industrial economic bases. The city center’s area is designed to
be about 5% of the city’s area. The area of the industrial zone is about 22% of city area. This paper
refers to the development of the city with a focus on the central and the industrial zones. The city
center has the major managerial and commercial services. The industrial zone includes industrial
areas as well as the major industrial education, training and managerial services. Renewable energy
will be generated with different methods. This city will be the first step of development series
opportunities in Egypt. Gardens’ City will have different sustainable options and the estimated yearly
net profit for it would be 63-90 Million Egyptian pound (LE) and 394-535 Million LE yearly net profit for
the whole new Farafra Oasis from olive, palm, and wheat only. This city will be the first step that
opens great development opportunities in Egypt. Egypt has already adopted developing in the newly
discovered areas and there are steps on the road.
Keywords: Gardens' city; New Farafra; city centre; industrial area; Egyptian desert.
1. INTRODUCTION
Egypt has the highest population in the Middle East, with about 101 million inhabitants as 2020
reports referred. Egyptian people are living along the Nile (notably Cairo and Alexandria), in the Delta
and near the Suez Canal. Egypt's area is about 1 Million square kilometers, but the inhabited
area is only 50 thousands kilometer. Nile Delta's area is about 37 thousands kilometer. It represents
74% of the inhabited area. The ratio of land used in agriculture is 3.74% of Egypt's area [1,2]. Several
threats will face Egypt's densely populated coastal strip and Nile Delta by the probable
dramatic increase of sea level due to global warming. This coastal zone is considered one of
the five regions expected to experience the worst effects of a sea-level rise (SLR) of 1.0 m [3,4].
These threats will badly affect Egypt's economy, agriculture and industry. The rise in sea level could
turn millions of Egyptians into environmental refugees by the end of the century, as Nile Delta will turn
to a wasted land if the sea level only rises 30 cm, which means that 70,000 agricultural jobs will be
ended. Challenges have risen now, so we should be prepared for the expected global warming crisis
and its impacts [5-7]. This paper discusses the development of Gardens’ City in the Egyptian
western desert with focus on its' central and industrial zones as a solution for development needs and
to overcome the coming challenges. The methodology which is used, site analysis- to discover
strength and weakness points- applying international planning ratios and achieving sustainable city
planning.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Architectural Department, College of Engineering, Assiut University, Asyut, Egypt.
2
Department of Geology, College of Science, Assiut University, Asyut, Egypt.
3
Architect, Asyut, Egypt.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: sabouelfadl@yahoo.com;
2. NEWLY EXPLORED AREAS IN EGYPTIAN WESTERN DESERT

There are different scenarios to help Egypt overcome these challenges. One of them is protecting the
Nile Delta lowlands from the sea’s incursion by building seawalls along the Delta’s entire coastline
to hold back the Mediterranean. Another one is to move the affected people to more suitable areas
[6].
There is a new discovered area in the Egyptian western desert which can be developed. An Egyptian
expedition found about 3.5 million Acres, which are rich to be developed in the Egyptian western
desert [8-10]. Fig. 1a shows the place of these newly discovered areas, while Fig. 1b shows the new
discovered oasis and plateaus. This area was always considered as a part of great sand sea.
Fig. 1a. Newly discovered areas western Egyptian desert
Fig. 1b. Newly discovered Oases and Plateaus [8,9]
75
2.1 New Farafra Oasis
The New Farafra Oasis is a part of the newly explored area. It is the nearest Oasis to the existing
urban areas. New Farafra Oasis- extends northeast between altitudes 27°03' N and 26°58' E to
altitudes 27° 22'30 N and 27° 24' E, with a maximum NE length of 52 km and a maximum width of 20
2
km, attaining a total area of 932 km . The floor base of the Oasis is situated at a ground elevation
varying from 60 m to 115 m and average 94 m above sea level [9,10].
The existing roads from the site to Nile valley are too long (500 km long) so, there are two suggested
roads, 1st road which is about 180 km length connects the discovered site to Asyut city as shown in
Fig. 1a. The 2nd road will connect the discovered site with the existing urban areas around it, Cairo-
New valley road from one side and to Baharia-Siwa road from the other side, (Fig. 2) [11].
As a development green thinking: This site has a lot of potential aspects (Figs. 3 and 4) [11-13].
These aspects are as follows:
- It lies in the Egyptian western desert which represents a high ratio of the Egyptian land that
has not been well used yet.
- Flat land is available, which assures easy urbanization and development.
- It is away from sea flooding which may happen due to the global warming, which keeps it safe
for the probable future climate migration in Delta and coastal areas in Egypt.
- It lies in Upper Egypt, a part which has been neglected for a long time.
- Water resources are available there; the Nubian sand stone there forms a big storage of
water.
- There are natural springheads like Dalah springhead.
- The oasis area is 932 km2 (222 thousand acres) which assures great areas of agriculture
land.
- Solar and wind energy; there are enough to generate clean renewable energy.
- Shale/clay soil is available there which allows agricultural and industrial development.
- Shale/clay soil and lime stone are available, which facilitates local constructional material.
- The white desert, in the western desert, lies near the site, which allows geological tourism.
- White sand, which is suitable for glass and solar cell manufacturing, is found near the site.
2.2 Gardens' City
Gardens’ City is a new city, which is planned to be implemented in new Farafra Oasis [11,12]. The
site of Gardens’ city has been chosen to be located in the eastern northern part of the new Farafra
Oasis. The plan benefits from some rough roads are already found in the site, one of these roads has
been chosen to be a major axe of the city, and another one will work as a highway. The Egyptian
desert, including the area around new Farafra Oasis, is famous for its good palm and olive, which is
considered as an economical base for the oasis. A big palm garden is planned southern to the city,
with an area enough for about 123 thousands palm trees. Another garden for olive is planned to the
west of the city with an area enough for about 78 thousands olive trees. Agricultural area, about 15
thousand acres, will be planted with wheat rotated with other crops (southern to the city). As the city
site has elevations mostly between 70-90 m above sea level, housing areas have been allocated
between 70-80 m above the sea level. The industrial zone lies in the southern east of the city. The
energy production area will be 100 m above sea level, which lies eastern to the city with an
extendable area up to 9000 acres. A primary master plan shows different zones in Gardens’ city and
future extension areas for different zones is in Fig. 5. The city master plan, which has been also
developed, adopts neighborhood community system with services inside each community. Local
materials, like plants rest, will be used firstly to feed 750 thousands animals head in specific animal
barns area, lies southern to the city, then the remains in addition to the animal residue will be used in
producing biogas and fertilizers. Algae will be planted on a sanitary lake in the industrial area to
produce biofuel. New Farafra Oasis will be developed in parallel with Gardens’ City in the four
developing flat spots (Fig. 4). Gardens’ City is planned for about 117 thousand inhabitants. Each
developing spot in the oasis will have 250 thousand inhabitants so, the target will be a million
inhabitants in the whole Farafra Oasis and 25 million in the discovered areas [11].
76
Fig. 2. Connecting the newly discovered area to the existing areas and a site photo [8,9]
77
Fig. 3. Two sections through new Farafra oasis to show site topography [8,9,10]
78
Fig. 4. Site potential aspects for new Farafra oasis
79
Fig. 5. Primary master plan of Gardens' City [11]
Gardens’ City will be sustainable in energy, agriculture, land use, rest and residue etc. It will have four
different kinds of renewable energy and a yearly net profits about 63-90 Million Egyptian pound (LE).
The whole new Farafra oasis will have around a million palm trees, 633 thousands olive tree and 60
thousand acres of wheat. The yearly net profits are estimated to be 394- 535 Million LE [12].
2.3 Gardens’ City Center
The city centre is 137 acres, which forms about 5% of city area without including the industrial area,
which has its own central area. The city centre includes central managerial and commercial areas lies
in 397 land pieces. These land pieces are divided into, 203 land pieces of about 400 m2 area for
2
commercial use and 194 land pieces of about 900 m area for managerial use. The city centre has
two places for car parking, they wide for about 1100 cars. In addition to, a big central park of about
10.3 acres, Fig. 6 and Fig. 7 show land use, roads and the big central city garden of the city central
area.
Fig. 6. City centre
80
2.4 The Industrial Zone

Gardens’ City area is 3250 acres including the industrial zone. The area of the industrial zone is 720
acres (22% of city area). It consists of 2401 land pieces. 1494 piece of about 400 m2 each (262.3
2
acres), and 907 piece of about 900 m each (334 acres). Total area of land pieces=596.7 acres. The
area of streets is about 296 acres (41% of the industrial area). Each piece of land has a direct access
on a street of at least 20 m wide. An industrial project might take any number of land pieces according
to planning requirements of factory. The main streets and the central area of the industrial zone are
designed to be 123.3 acres (17% of the industrial area). The industrial area centre is 38 acres (5.3%
of industrial zone), (Fig. 8). Tables 1-3 show services ratios and areas in industrial zone, Fig. 9 shows
the industrial zone's land use, roads and centre and sub centers. Services have been distributed in
the central and sub central areas in the industrial zone. Fig. 10 shows Gardens' City, its central and
industrial zones and the neighborhood system used.
Fig. 7. City centre land use, roads, sub centers and the city garden
Fig. 8. The industrial zone
Table 1. Land use ratios in industrial city [14,15]
Land use Land use ratios%

Minimum maximum Average
Industrial Land use 60 70 65
Services 3 7 5
Roads and car parking 18 32 25
Green and open areas 3 7 5
81
2.5 Feasibility Study for Gardens' City

Gardens’ City will be the first step in a series of development opportunities in Egypt. It will be
sustainable in energy, agriculture, land use, rest and residue etc. It will have four different kinds of
renewable energy. The estimated yearly net profit for the city would be 63-90 Million Egyptian pound
(LE) and 394-535 Million LE yearly net profit for the whole new Farafra oasis from olive, palm and
wheat only. Tables 4 and 5 shows that plants rest will be able to supply animal farms with the required
animals' food [12].
Fig. 9. Land use, Roads and central areas in Gardens' city industrial area
Fig. 10. Gardens' City
82
Table 2. Industrial area (720 Acres–1 Acres= 4200 m2) [14,15]
Services Per unit

Medium 14400 labour/720 Acres
industries 15-25 craftsman/Acres Divided to sex sector
0.35 m2/person in sector 5040 m2 for the sector
Commercial 0.56 m2/ person in neighbourhood 2
1008 m for a neighbourhood
2
1.05/person in the sector 15120 m for the industrial sector
2 2
1.4 m /person in neighbourhood 2520 m for the neighbourhood
Religious 1.2 m2 for a cell in the neighbourhood 600 m2 for a cell
For the sector 30 Acres
Recreational For the neighbourhood 5 Acres
For a cell 1 Acres
A Kinder garden for 2000-3000 person with a 5-8 kinder garden for the industrial
service scope 400 m (an area of 0.15- 0.25 zone (0.75-2.0 Acres) - 375-800 child
Acres) for 75-100 child.
Educational Secondary school 1 high technical school
2
Craftsmen 0.75-1.5 m2/person Craftsmen village 10800-21600 m
Vocational training centre 1 Vocational training canter
For the sector a Polyclinic for 20000- I Polyclinic with an area 0.6 Acres
50000 person with service scope of 1000 m
Health For a neighbourhood a health canter for
5000- 10000 person with a service scope 1 health canter
250-300 m (an area 0.1 Acres)
1 Fire extinguisher Station 1 Fire extinguisher Station,
Secondary 1 police station per 20000- 30000 person 1 police station
services 1 Ambulance station per 30000-40000 person
(4-10 ambulance car) 1 Ambulance station
2
15 place/1000 m in mosque
Car parking 5.5 place/100 commercial mall
2
100-200 place/1000 m recreational
Table 3. Industrial services ration [14,15]
Services ratio/ industrial region 5.3% (160750 m2=38 Acres)

services % From region service area
30-50 (40 average) (60480 m2) (general industrial
Industrial services management, marketing, Incubator projects, maintenance, …
Social services 20-40 (average 30) (45360 m2)
20- 40 (average 30) (45360 m2) (police station, civil defence,
General services commercial, health, religious
Table 4. Plants rest in Gardens' city [16-18]
Gardens City City AgriculturalCity City agricultural Oasis

before extension production rests (Ton/ Agricultural rests after future Agricultural
(Ton) 1000 Ton) rests (Mio extension (Mio rests (Mio
Ton) Ton) Ton)
Wheat straw 42000 60000-75000 2.520-3.150 2.520- 3.150 10.520-12.600
Olive Leaves and
branches 2508 1000 25.080 50.16 200.64
Olive geft 2508 25000 62.700 125.4 501.6
83
Table 5. Animal food needed in Gardens' City animals farms [19,20]
Cows City needs - City need- City needs City needs Green Feed Green
(head) concentrated concentrated from dry from dry (Ton/ day) Feed (Mio
Feed Feed fillers fillers Ton/ year)
(Thousand (Thousand (Thousand (Thousand
Ton/ day) Ton/ year) Ton/ day) Ton/ year)
375000 4.500-5.625 1.6-2.0 1.870 2.3-2.7 5625-5625 1.3-2.0
3. SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITY
Creating a sustainable community is not including the economic side only, but also other aspects of
life: social justice, freedom, dignity, respecting rules and duties etc as shown in Fig. 11 so, Gardens’
City will be sustainable in different aspects as follows:
3.1 Land Owning
A part of the city strategy is to give youth about 3000 piece land pieces with economical price. Daily
consumed crops like tomatoes, potatoes etc. will be planted there. This will help in attracting
inhabitants, allow them produce their needs of vegetables and fruits, give them the chance to feel
owner of the city, enhance their creativity and drive their efforts forward. Legislation will prevent selling
these land pieces before 30 years to prevent investing and price rising by selling them.
3.2 Production and Work
The produced crops will be collected by companies or organizations to be sold inside and outside the
city. Homes will be used as residence, work and investment. From the profit, lands' prices will be paid.
Fig. 11. Sustainable in Gardens’ city
84
People will find chances in planting palms, olives and other plants. Corporations will have
opportunities in planting wheat and other national crops and other materials. Industrial expertise will
help developing industry and energy in the oasis. Academics will develop theoretical and practical
education for energy and industry. Industry will be initiated on crops and other materials. There will be
more than a half million work opportunities for different people (educated, craftsmen, expertise,
workers, etc.).
3.3 Social Reality
The city targets to attract different inhabitants. Both youth and expertise will find opportunities.
Farmers and industrial worker will have chances. Investors and job seekers as well as, people who
are newly coming back from abroad and those who are in danger due to global warming in Delta and
coastal areas in Egypt will find places there. People will share societies and help serving them. All this
will allow a stabilized, balanced society and assure dignity and social justice.
3.4 Managing a Sustainable Community
Decentralization mixed with centralization will be applied to assure a good city reward and Egyptian
commercial and economical identity. Crops will be defined through councils from land owner
themselves and expertise. Civil societies will solve problems and afford needs and technical help. City
citizens will form councils in each city quarter. Expertise will help people to produce best quality
products and market them. Prizes will be rewarding for citizens and the city. The city commercial
chamber will be responsible for making commercial agreement in Egypt and abroad.
3.5 Sustainability Aspects: Site, Water, Materials, Infrastructure, Energy
City site lies on flat land easy to be built. A beautiful touristic site near the oasis gives touristic
opportunities. Water is available near ground surface. It will be used wisely. A new sanitary net design
will be used to collect used water. Gray water will be reused to grow plants, palms olives, and in
industry. Lime stone in the oasis with shale/clay soil form local building materials. Renewable energy
will be produced to supply the newly discovered areas in the Egyptian western desert. Biofuel from
plants and animals residues and from algae will be also produced [11,12].
3.6 Steps on the Road
A conference has been held in September 2012 in the new valley governorate in Egypt announcing
the start of new Farafra Oasis development. Some investors suggested initiating the city
infrastructure. 10 Million Egyptian pounds have been assigned for experimental wells in the Oasis.
Another conference has been held at the same governorate on 27th November 2012 looking for
financial support. An academic team from Assiut University was ready to develop the project.
Professors from agricultural college were willing to define agricultural priorities, best irrigation methods
for different crops, and local plants in the area to develop their species. Professors from civil
engineering were welcoming design a short road from Assiut to New Farafra and other roads. From
department of Mining and Metallurgical and civil material, professors were standby to study the soil to
develop building material from local existing materials. Professors from sanitary specialty were going
to study the city’s sanitary system to make use of solid and liquid wastes and plant Algae on sanitary
water to produce Biofuel. Professor from survey department were going to develop maps to help
plotting the city on land. Professors from mechanical and electrical departments were studying making
use of wind and solar power. From Architecture department is the planning team and a geological
team from college of Science, etc.
Egypt adopted already developing in new areas in the Egyptian western desert. Farafa oasis is now
one of the listed areas in the water scheme of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation and the
developing plan of Egypt. Investing opportunities have been opened in the area in different related
fields. Three transverse roads are nearing completion to connect the New-valley governorate with
governorates of Upper Egypt, including the Tnida Road, Manfalut and Farafra, Dayrout, to Assiut
Governorate. Several wells have been drilled and cultivation Experimental cultures were carried out in
85
the area. Studies on the area are in progress. Selling announcement for Land pieces have been
announced. There is a change in Egyptian future for this area [21,22,23].
4. CONCLUSION
Gardens' city is a future city in the New Farafra Oasis in the Egyptian western desert. It represents a
sustainable development to afford future growth needs and overcome the probable immigration from
Delta and Nile regions due to climate change. Gardens' City is planned for 117 thousand inhabitants
in a development spot system with a target of one million inhabitants in Oasis and 25 Million in the
newly discovered areas in the western Egyptian desert. The city centre has 203 land pieces for
commercial use, 194 land pieces for managerial use, a big central recreational garden and two big
central parking areas. The industrial zone's area is 720 Acres. It has 2401 land pieces for industrial
use in six industrial neighborhoods with different services. It has a technical school, a craftsmen
village, and a vocational training centre. Its' central area has the main industrial managerial service.
Gardens' city will have different sustainable options and the estimated yearly net profit for it would be
63-90 Million Egyptian pound (LE), and 394- 535 Million LE yearly net profit for the whole new Farafra
Oasis from olive, palm, and wheat only. This city is the first step that opens great development
opportunities in Egypt.
Egypt has adopted developing in the newly discovered areas. Investing opportunities have been
opened in Egyptian western desert oases including Farafra oasis in different related fields. Three
transverse roads are nearing completion to connect the New-valley governorate with the governorates
of Upper Egypt.
COMPETING INTERESTS
REFERENCES
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Alpha; 2011.
2. Available:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt-15 June 2011
3. Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Murray S, Wheeler D. Sea-level rise and storm surges. Policy
Research Working Paper 4901. The World Bank, Development Research Group, Environment
and Energy Team, Washington, DC; 2009.
4. Shaltout M, Tonbol K, Omstedt A. Sea-level change and projected future flooding along the
Egyptian Mediterranean coast. Oceanologia. 2015;57(4):293-307.
5. Abouelfadl S. Global warming-causes, effects and solution's trials. J. Engg Sci. 2012;40:352-
360.
6. Abouelfadl S, El-Lithy KH. Impact assessment of global warming on Egypt. Int J. Engg Adv.
Technol. 2014;3:352-360.
7. Ouda KH. Atlas of risks of climate change on the Egyptian coasts and defensive policies.
Geology of the Nile Basin Countries Conference, Alexandria, Egypt. 2012;95-103.
8. Ouda KH. Fostering sustainable water management and agriculture in Egypt’s New Valley.
Presented Conference Research Work, WaDImena Egypt; 2009.
9. Ouda KH, Sinosi M, Saber M, Gaber M, Hasan G. Final report of new geological and
underground water witness at the great sand sea in the Western desert- Egypt, a push that
leads to agricultural development and architectural societies at the western part of the western
desert-Egypt; 2011.
10. Ouda KH. Final report results of new geological and underground water witness at the great
sand sea in the western desert–Egypt, a push that leads to agricultural development and
architectural societies at the western part of the western desert-Egypt; 2012.
11. Abouelfadl S, Ouda KH, Atia A, Al-Amir N. The Egyptian Gardens’ City- A New City in Western
Desert (EGCWD)-A primary master plan. International Conference on Energy and
Sustainability, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Pakistan; 2013.
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12. Abouelfadl S, Ouda Kh, Atia A, Al-Amir N, Ali M, et al. WIT transactions on ecology and the
environment. A new sustainable city in the Egyptian western desert-Gardens' City.
Environmental Impact Conference, Ancona, Italy; 2014.
13. Ouda KH, Senosy M, Gad M, Hassan G, Saber M. New findings in geology, geomorphology,
and groundwater potentiality of the great sand sea, Western Desert, Egypt: An advantage which
would lead to establishment of new societies in order to meet growing demands in Egypt.
Geology of the Nile Basin Countries Conference GNBCC-2012: Geology and Development
Challenges, Alexandria, Egypt; 2012.
14. Abokreen A. Basics of the theories of urban planning. Alsafaa Press Abuhelal-Elmenia, Egypt;
1997.
15. Available:http://www.sidf.gov.sa/En/INDUSTRYINSAUDIARABIA/Pages/IndustrialDevelopmenti
nSaudiArabia.aspx
16. Harb M. Agricultural wastes that can be used as animal feed in Jordan. Department of Animal
Production. College of Agriculture - University of Jordan; 2012.
17. Available:http://www.caae-eg.com/new/index.php/2012-12-25-10-49-19/2010-09-18-17-00-
51/2011-01-10-19-57-24/490-2011-12-13-10-12-34.html
18. Available:http://www.mawhopon.net/ver_ar/news.php?news_id=593
19. Available:http://website.paaf.gov.kw/paaf/ershad/ad46.jsp
20. Available:http://aljsad.com/forum49/thread103743/
21. Available:https://www.albawabhnews.com/3703378
22. Available:https://www.youm7.com/story/2018/11/27/%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8
%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D9%86-
%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%89-
%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-
%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9/4047809
23. Ahmed Abdelrahman. Potential for agricultural economic development in the Egyptian Western
Desert. Ph.D. thesis, College of agriculture, Ain shams University; 2017.
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Prof. Somaya Abouelfadl

Architectural Department, College of Engineering, Assiut University, Asyut, Egypt.
She is born in El-Menia, Egypt. She is a full professor for architecture and environmental design, College of Eng., Assiut
University, Egypt. She obtained Ph.D. from Stuttgart university, Fac. Of Architecture and City planning in 1999. She worked for
different universities, colleges and institutes in Egypt, UAE, KSA, Qatar, and Jordan. Her research interests include Green and
Sustainable architecture, Environmental design and control, Energy efficient buildings, Low energy architecture, Global
warming, Architectural and Engineering education developing, Sustainable planning. She has 37 publications and Books. She
is the head of the planning team - and coordinator for the project - of Gardens’ city- new Farafra Oasis (EGCWD) and takes
share in publishing papers around it.
Dr. Khaled A. Ouda,

Department of Geology, College of Science, Assiut University, Asyut, Egypt.
He was born in El Zagazig, Sharqiya, Egypt. He obtained Ph.D. degree in "Stratigraphy and micropaleontology,” from Assiut
University in 1971.His research include biotic & climatic global changes during Paleocene-Eocene transition; Global warming
impact on Egypt & defense, Geology & stratigraphy of new discovered oases, plains & plateaus with high groundwater
potentiality- Egyptian Western Desert Great Sand Sea. Since 2004, he is a Full-Time (Emaritus) Professor at Assuit University.
Previously he served as an Associate Professor at Oran Univ. Algeria. He has more than 43 publications. He is the Principal
investigator of the USA- Belgium-Egypt Joint Scientific Project: Theban International Geoarcheology Project (TIGA). She is the
geological head of Gardens’ City team members and takes share in publishing papers around it.
Assmaa A. Atia
She was born in Asyut city, Egypt. She is an Architect. She graduated from Asyut University, College of Eng., Architecture dept.
in 2010. She has a diploma in architecture design in 2012 and registered for master at Asyut University, Egypt. She works at
General Administration of Engineering Affairs, Asyut University’s Hospitals, Asyut, Egypt. She is a planning team member of
Gardens’ City and take share in publishing papers around it. She was a team member in taking leave competition in 2012,
organized by center of sustainability, British University, Cairo. She is experienced in projects’ architectural design through
contributing in some architectural projects.
88
Nada Al Amir
She is an Egyptian Architect. She studied M.Sc. of Urban Development at Technische Universität Berlin, Germany, after
obtaining her B.Sc. in Architecture from Assiut University-Egypt.
University Egypt. During her master study, she was a team member in ASUS
research project titeled “Adapting Sustainable Urban planning to local climate change in Egyptian new towns”, which is financ
financed
by the German- Egyptian fund (GERF). Its objective is to analyze sustainable urban planning in arid climates. Furthermore, she
is a planning team member of Gardens’ City and take share in publishing papers around it. She has an experience in
conducting the quantitative by using human thermal comfort and energy consumption software and ability to develop new
environmental mitigation strategies. Her research is focusing on developing new sustainable cities and enhancing the Urban
Microclimate by environmental landscape planning to reduce Urban Heat Island (UHI), consequently contribute to the global
climate change as results of Green House Gases (GHG) emissions.
Manal Ali
She is an Architect. She is born in El-Minia

Minia Government, Egypt. She graduated from Asyut University 2013. She is a sales
engineer at ALUMIL -International
International Company Working in Aluminum Production and Fabrication. She is a team member of
Gardens’ City planner and take share in publishing papers around it. She was back
back office Engineer at Real estate sales; she
was also a coordinator and architect at some big Companies. She is a planning team member of Gardens’ City and take share
in publishing some papers around it. She was a team member in taking leave competition in in 2012, organized by center of
sustainability, British University, Cairo, Egypt.
Egypt
Sara Mahmoud
She is born in Cairo,

ro, Egypt. She is an architect. She obtained B.Sc. from Asyut University, Egypt. She works at New Urban
Communities Authority in Cairo, Egypt. She is a planning team member of Gardens’ City and take share in publishing papers
around it. She was a team member in taking leave competition in 2012, organized by center of sustainability, British
Briti University,
Cairo. She was a team member in different competition in 2012 organized by the British University, Cairo, and Ezbet
Community Center Competition organized by Stuttgart University in Ain shams University, AYB-ASU
AYB ASU (NGO) in Cairo. She got
experience
ience gained through exposure to experiential activities to major aspects of leadership, teamwork, communication, and
leadership skills. She got herself trained on Employability and Career Development Center (ECDC), ASU, 2013, funded by the
USAID, American University in Asyut.
89
Hamsa Said
She is an Architect. She is born in Asyut, Egypt. She graduated in 2013 from Asyut University, Egypt. She works as a freelance
designer and have “Hamas studio-interior design”. She Worked as Back office Engineer at ECG. She is a planning team
member of Gardens’ City and take share in publishing papers around it. She was a team member in taking leave competition in
2012, organized by center of sustainability, British University, Cairo, Egypt.
A. Ahmed
She is born in Kuwait City. She is an architect who is graduated from Asyut University 2013. She is the manager of ENGAZ
office for architecture designs and general building contracting in Alexandria, Egypt. She is a planning team member of
Gardens’ City and take share in publishing papers around it. She was a team member in taking leave competition in 2012,
organized by center of sustainability, British University, Cairo, Egypt. She is interested in studying occupational health and
safety (HSE) in design requirements and the development of escape plans.
_________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER
Journal of Fundamentals of Renewable Energy and Applications, 5(2): 1-8, 2015.
90
Chapter 7
Climate Change: Assessing the Vulnerability of the

Niger Delta Region, in Nigeria
Stephena Udinmade Ighedosa1*
ABSTRACT
Climate change includes both the global warming phenomenon, driven by greenhouse-emitting
anthropogenic activities and the associated large scale shift in weather patterns. Climate change is
not just a global threat, but an unprecedented public health emergency. Climate change has been
characterized by global warming, increased frequency and intensity of precipitation, catastrophic wind
events, and extreme weather events, associated with heat waves, flooding disasters, and prolonged
droughts. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has prescribed
abatement agreements, based on precautionary principle and principle of cost and responsibility,
amongst member nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Globally, the most vulnerable
regions, to hazardous impacts of climate change, are the mega-deltas of Africa and Asia, due to high
exposure to sea level rise, storm surges, coastal erosion and river flooding, compounded by
increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas. The vulnerability of the Niger Delta region is
exacerbated by oil spillages, gas flaring and environmental degradation.
This chapter draws attention to the vulnerability of the Niger Delta to the adverse impact of climate
change and the urgency of the implementation of mitigation and adaptation as opportunities for full
transformation of economies, of the Niger delta region, in line with sustainable developmental goals
(SDGs).
Keywords: Impacts of climate change; vulnerability to climate change; economic transformation of

Niger Delta Region; transition to renewable energy.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Climate Change
Climate change is one of the most threatening global challenges of the 21st century. The Earth’s
climate has changed significantly, compared to the pre-industrial era, in both global and regional
scales. The UN’s Framework for Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) defines Climate Change
(CC) as ‘a change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods’ [1]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) refers to
climate change as ‘a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical
tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended
period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of anthropogenic (human) activity. The IPCC usage differs from that of
UNFCCC, where climate change is attributed to human activity. There is new and strong evidence
that most of the global warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities [2,
3]. Climate change has been associated with Global warming and shifting weather patterns that
threaten food production, and cause rising sea levels that increase the risk of catastrophic flooding.
The impacts of climate change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. In response to climate
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Department of Community Health, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: stephena.ighedosa@uniben.edu;
change, policies adopted to influence the management of ecosystems are expected also to affect the
wildlife habitat and populations that depend on these ecosystems [4-6].
Climate change signifies that, today, we are altering the Earth’s biophysical and ecological systems,
at the planetary scale – as is also evidenced by stratospheric ozone depletion, accelerating
biodiversity losses, stresses on terrestrial and marine food-producing systems, depletion of fresh
water supplies, and the global dissemination of persistent organic pollutants.
International agreements on global environmental issues of climate change consider the principles of
sustainable development proposed in Agenda 21 and the UNFCCC. These include the “precautionary
principle”, the principle of “costs and responsibility” (the cost of pollution or environmental damage
should be borne by those responsible), and equity – both within and between countries and over time
(between generations) [1,2,7,8].
1.2 Global Climate Variability
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines climate variability as “variation in the mean
state and other statistics of the climate (temperature, rain and wind) on all temporal and special
scales, beyond individual weather events” [9]. Character of climate variability is determined by
exposure to climate related hazards e.g. increased precipitation and flooding. The number and force
of natural catastrophes since the start of the new millennium alone leave marks in history. These
events are pieces of evidence of the world’s changing climate [10]. The magnitude of Climate
Variation is measured by risks of life threatening climate related events such as excess morbidity and
mortality from malaria and diarrhoea, and risks of internal displacement. The Rate of climate variation
is increased by frequency of variation in climatic elements namely: temperature, precipitation, wind,
humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness and solar radiation. Sensitivity of Population or System to
Climate Variation describes the responsiveness to climate variability and severely extreme weather
events. Determinants of sensitivity include: poverty, inequality, marginalization, food entitlements,
access to insurance and housing quality. Appropriate response to climate change include:
meteorological services, political will, level of awareness of climate change, cause, effects, mitigation
and adaptation, including building adaptive capacity through community mobilization [1,3,11].
Changes in global and regional climate patterns were apparent from the mid to the late 20th century
onwards. Extremes of regional climatic cycles, with severe weather-related events, such as the El
Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, associated with flash floods and widespread flooding, in
large parts of Asia and parts of Central Europe; heat wave and drought in the Russian Federation,
mudslides in China and severe droughts in sub-Saharan Africa. The sequence of current weather-
related events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events:
increased precipitation, increased weather variability, with increased intensity and frequency of
Extreme weather events and disasters, due to global warming. A combination of increased
precipitation and melting of glaciers have resulted in rising sea levels [12,13].
1.3 Greenhouse Gases
The greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the atmospheric gases responsible for causing global warming
and climate change. The major GHGs are Water vapour, Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4),
Nitrous oxide (N2O), Halocarbons and Ozone (O3). Less prevalent, often man-made, but very powerful
GHGs, are hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
CFCs are used for refrigeration, air conditioning, packaging, insulation, solvents, or aerosol
propellants. They drift into the upper atmosphere where, given suitable conditions, they break down
ozone. CFCs are to be replaced by safer options, including hydro-chlorofluorocarbons, in compliance
with the Kyoto protocol [3,7,14,15].
Carbon dioxide, produced mostly from fossil fuel combustion and forest burning, is the major problem
and growing greenhouse gas (GHG). Methane is produced from irrigated agriculture, animal
husbandry and oil extraction [7].
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Global emissions are reaching record levels, and show no sign of peaking [16]. Global GHGs
emissions have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004
(24% between 1990 and 2004). It is projected that with the implementations of the United nations’
legal instruments (The Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement), and related sustainable development
goals, GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades.
There is growing and strong scientific evidence that if we act now, by complying with the UN legal
instruments, we can reduce carbon emissions within 12 years and hold the increase in the global
average temperature to 1.5ºC (well below 2ºC) above the pre-industrial levels, as recommended by
latest science, to stop climate disruption and reverse the impact. The Paris Agreement plans to
achieve a 45% global reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, and to dramatically reduce GHG
emissions to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 [16].
In Nigeria, the total GHGs emissions was 518.84 million metric tons between 1990 and 2009. This
was equivalent to 0.26% of global GHGs. Between 2000 and 2009, the yearly average increase of
CO2 (the most significant GHG) emission was 4.7% which was 2.8% higher than the average global
1
rate of 1.9% . Gas flaring in Nigeria contributes significantly to GHGs emission in Nigeria. However,
gas flaring has been reduced to 8% as more gas is being utilized to generate electricity [17,18,19].
According to World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the build-up of GHGs in the atmosphere in
the 20th century, resulting from the growing use of fossil-based energy and the expansion of the global
economy, has altered the radiative balance of the atmosphere [9]. GHGs absorb some of the Earth’s
out-going heat radiation and re-radiate it back towards the surface. The net effect is to warm the
Earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere (Fig. 1).
Natural GHGs (Water vapour, Carbon dioxide CO2, methane CH4 and Nitrous oxide) absorb and emit
radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s
surface, the atmosphere and clouds to produce the natural ‘greenhouse effect ‘that makes the Earth
habitable. Humankind’s or Anthropogenic activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of
energy-trapping GHGs, thereby amplifying the natural “greenhouse effect” that makes the Earth
habitable. The resultant Global warming challenges the sustainability of the biosphere and the
ecosystems (Fig. 2) [3,15].
1.4 Global Warming
The last four years were the four hottest years on record, and winter temperatures in the Arctic have
risen by 3ºC since 1990 [16].
During the twentieth century, world average surface temperature increased by approximately 0.6ºC,
and approximately two-thirds of that warming has occurred since 1975. Climatologists forecast further
warming, during the coming century and beyond. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) stated: “that there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed
over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” [3]. The IPCC’s Third Assessment Report
projected that, as we continue to change atmospheric composition, global surface temperature will
rise by 1.4ºC to 5.8ºC in this century, along with changes in precipitation and other climatic variables.
Global temperature on earth is directly linked to the concentration of Greenhouse gases (GHGs), in
the earth’s atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant of the GHGs, accounting for
about two-thirds of GHGs. CO2 is the major product of burning fossil fuels. The concentration of
GHGs, in the earth’s atmosphere, has been rising steadily, and the mean global temperatures along
with it, since the time of the industrial revolution. From 1880 to 2012, the average global temperature
increased by 0.85ºC. The 100-year linear warming trend (1906 - 2005) was 0.74ºC, with most of the
warming occurring in the past 50 years. The warming for the next 20 years is projected to be 0.2ºC
per decade [1].
Global warming has caused the expansion of oceans due to warming of the oceans and melted ice.
Between 1901 and 2010, the global sea level rose by 19cm. There is evidence that Global warming
93
and some impacts of climate change could persist for centuries, with risks of irreversible changes in
major ecosystems and planetary climate system, even if emissions of GHGs are stopped. A special
report by the IPCC, in 2018, suggests that a rise of global warming by 2ºC would be associated with
dangerous global damage. Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC, will ensure a more sustainable and
equitable society. It will require ‘a rapid and far-reaching’ unprecedented changes in all aspects of
society, including: transitions in land, energy, industry, building, transport, and cities. Global net
human-caused emissions of CO2 would need to fall by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching
‘net zero’ around 2050. It is expected that remaining emissions would be balanced by removing CO2
from the atmosphere. The ‘Kyoto Protocol’ and the ‘Paris Agreement’ are the United Nations legal
instruments, ratified by 192 and 184 Parties, respectively, brings all nations to undertake ambitious
efforts to combat climate change, accelerate and intensify the global actions and investments needed
for a sustainable low carbon future; adapt to the public health impacts of climate change, with
enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so [20].
1.5 Dangerous Climate Change
Dangerous Climate Change consists of Changes that are “irreversible” in human time, including:
i. Sea level rise. Partial melting of Greenland and West Antarctic are expected from temperatures
rises 1-4ºC, above the 1990 global temperature level resulting in 4-6 metres rise in ocean
levels. Total melting is possible within centuries, leading to 15 metres rise in ocean levels.
ii. Species extinctions. It is estimate that 20-30% of plant and animal species is at risk of extinction
with > 1.5-2.5ºC average rise in Temperature. Massive extinctions are likely with 4-5ºC rise in
global temperature [21].
The World Health Organization, in a global response to climate change, warns the committee of
nations to avoid “Dangerous climate change” and limit temperature rise to 1- 2ºC this century to
reduce the extent of global warming, dramatic sea level rise with risks of massive extinctions of
aquatic biodiversity, and other impacts.
WHO advocates the pursuit of equitable solutions to global warming, that first protects the most
vulnerable populations, groups and local conditions, be they defined by demographics, income, or
location. The WHO strongly recommends mobilization of individual and collective compliance with
Primary intervention (MITIGATION) measures to reduce production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and
Secondary intervention (ADAPTATION) to climate change [8,22].
Fig. 1. Greenhouse gases and global warming
94
Fig. 2. Indisputable increases in greenhouse gases

Source: WHO. Global Climate Change & Child Health. Children’s Health and the Environment. WHO Training
Package for the Health Sector. WHO (2009)
WHO, WMO and UNEP collaborate on issues related to climate change and health, addressing
capacity building, information exchange and research promotion [6].
2. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Impacts consist of effects of climate change on natural systems (biophysical and ecological systems)
and human health. Impacts of climate change include potential and residual impacts. Potential
impacts are all impacts, actual or projected, that may occur, given a projected change in climate, with
no consideration of adaptation. Residual impacts are the impacts of climate change that can occur
after adaptation. Impacts are more extreme when the adaptive capacity is weak.
The severity, frequency and variability of the unfamiliar impacts of climate change, pose a major
challenge to sustainable development, on Earth. The consequences of climate change are global
warming, extreme weather events, increased variability and intensity, including: fatal heat waves;
droughts; heavier and more frequent storms with disastrous floods; increase in frequency and
intensity of El Nino Southern Oscillation.
The UNFCCC has warned that continued emissions of GHGs at or above current rates would cause
further global warming and induce many changes in the global climate system in the 21st century that
th
would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20 century [1]. There are actual and
expected or projected impacts of climate change.
Actual and expected life-threatening impacts of climate change vary according to locality and region.
The most vulnerable regions are the Arctic and Africa, due to high risks of projected warming on the
ecosystems and human communities in the Arctic; Africa has a low adaptive capacity and a high risk
of projected climate change impacts. Impacts have been associated with disruption of global, regional
and national economies, due to increased morbidity and mortality, air pollution, heat-waves, and risks
to food security and food safety [16].
95
2.1 Actual impacts of Climate Change
Nigeria’s climate is already changing. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET 2008) assessed
the Nigerian climate over the period 1941 to 2000 and demonstrated the following changes:
Rainfall: Compared to previous periods, during the period from 1971 to 2000, the
combination of late onset and early cessation shortened the length of the rainy season in most parts
of the country. Between 1941 and 2000, annual rainfall decreased by 2-8 mm across most of the
country, but increased by 2-4 mm in a few places (e.g. Port Harcourt).
Temperature: From 1941 to 2000, there was evidence of long-term temperature increase in most
parts of the country. The main exception was in the Jos area, where a slight cooling was recorded.
The most significant increases were recorded in the extreme northeast, extreme northwest and
extreme southwest, where average temperatures rose by 1.4-1.9ºC [23,24,25].
i. Increasing global warming with increasing acidification of the oceans, with an average
decrease in pH of 0.1 units;
ii. Contraction of Snow cover with widespread increases in thaw depth over most permafrost
regions;
iii. Shrinking of Sea ice in both Arctic and Antarctic regions, with risks of disappearance of most
of the Arctic late summer sea ice, by the later part of the 21st century;
iv. More frequent, more intense extreme weather variability, with hot extremes, heat-waves,
heavy precipitation, catastrophic flooding, and disastrous wind cyclones. Increased
precipitations very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are likely in most sub-tropical
regions;
v. Trends towards earlier ‘greening’ of vegetation and longer thermal growing season
vi. Changes in marine and freshwater biological systems associated with rising water
temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation,
can impact on fisheries and aquaculture.
vii. Increasingly negative impacts on local crop production, in all regions, especially in
subsistence sectors, at low latitudes, due to increases in the frequency of droughts and
floods. Even slight warming decreases yields in seasonally dry and tropical regions. However,
moderate warming benefits cereal crops and pasture yields in mid- to high latitude regions.
2.2 Projected Future Impacts
i. Continued anthropogenic global warming and sea-level rise, for centuries, due to the time
scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas were to be
stabilized.
ii. Increased water stress, due to increase in frequency and intensity of precipitation events with
flood risks; and increase in drought affected areas;
iii. Species extinctions and major biome changes, due to multiple stresses, in vulnerable
ecosystems, including: continental tundra, boreal forest, mountain and Mediterranean-type
ecosystems; coastal mangroves and salt marshes; and oceanic coral reefs and the sea-ice
biomes. Progressive acidification of the oceans, has a negative impact on marine shell-
forming organisms such as corals and their dependent species.
iv. Intensification and expansion of wildfires globally, as temperatures increase and dry spells
become more frequent and more persistent.
v. The net carbon intake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before the middle of the 21st
century, and then weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying climate change.
vi. Changes in the distribution and production of particular fish species are expected, due to
continued warming, with adverse effects for aquaculture and fisheries [8,26].
2.3 Impacts in Coastal Areas and Low-lying Areas

i. The most at risk populations would be the mega-deltas of the Africa and Asia, due to large
populations and high exposure to sea level rise, storm surges, coastal erosion, and river
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flooding, exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas, especially oil

spillages and gas flaring.
ii. Small islands would be especially vulnerable due to exposure of population and infrastructure
to projected climate change impacts.
iii. Increased risks of extreme weather events, e.g. flooding. Millions of people are projected to
experience severe flooding every year due to sea level rise by 2080s. Densely populated low-
lying areas, where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other
challenges, such as tropical storms, or local coastal subsistence, are especially at risk.
iv. Ocean acidification and warming have the potential to impact negatively on the aquaculture
and fisheries.
v. The poor, dwelling in often rapidly expanding communities, located near rivers and coasts,
and who use or depend on climate sensitive resources, are vulnerable to extreme weather
events.
vi. Increase in the economic and social costs of disruptive events, due to more intense and/or
more frequent, extreme weather events [1,3,15,27,28,29].
2.4 Negative (mostly) Impact
Negative impacts include, impacts on ecosystems (loss of biodiversity, aquifers, soil fertility); morbid
health outcomes increased worldwide, e. g. diarrhoea (2.4%), malaria (6%) in 2002; warmer average
temperatures, combined with increased climatic variability, would alter the pattern of exposure to
thermal extremes, heat waves very cold winters, with resultant health impacts, in both equatorial and
temperate climatic regions [30].
2.5 Positive Impacts
Climate change is associated with reduction of viability of disease-transmitting mosquito populations,

due to global warming. Global warming could also be associated with milder winters and reduction in
seasonal deaths.
Adaptation is the global strategy for adjustment in natural or human systems, in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities [7,
8].
Table 1. A summary of the projected trends in the key climate change parameters for
Nigeria is presented in the following table, by ecological zone
Climate variables Mangrove Rain Tall grass Short grass

zone forest (savanna) (Sahel)
Temperature ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
Rainfall amount ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓
Rainfall variability ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
Extreme rainfall events -droughts Likely Likely ↑ ↑
Extreme rainfall events –storms and ↑ ↑ Likely Likely
floods
Sea level rise ↑ NA NA NA
Legend: ↑ likely increase or increase; ↓ likely decrease or decrease; NA not applicable
Source: Federal Ministry of Environment Special Climate Change Unit. National Adaptation Strategy and Plan Of
Action On Climate Change For Nigeria (NASPA-CCN). November 2011 Federal Ministry of Environment Special
Climate Change Unit. November 2011 Electronic version: ISBN 978-0-9878656-5-6. Book version: ISBN 978-0-
9878656-4-9
2.6 Cost Implications of Climate Change
i. Direct cost of climate change consists of costs of mitigation (relief) action and costs of
adaptation to climate change. Direct costs of Adaptation include costs of severe and more
frequent flooding events due to rising sea-levels; population displacement, for reasons of
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physical hazards, land loss, economic disruption and civil strife and protein-Calorie
Malnutrition due to disturbance of natural and managed food-producing ecosystems,
especially ocean fisheries.
ii. Indirect Costs of CC, include loss of access to international market as a result of association
of adverse impacts of products on CC.
2.7 Inequity
The greenhouse gases that cause climate change (CC) originate mainly from developed countries but
the health risks are concentrated in the poorest nations, which contributed least to the problem; 88%
of the disease burden attributable to climate change afflicts children under the age of five (5) (an
innocent and non-consenting segment of the population – a health inequity) [8,22].
There is wide distributional inequity effect of anthropogenic forces within and among nations, between
regions and across generations. Countries most responsible for global environmental degradation
have benefited in the short term, but the harms will be felt most acutely in the poorest countries that
had less of a role in causing the degradation.
Children inherit societies created today: unequal burden of disease; loss of food and water security;
loss of biological capital; forced migration due to sea level rise, redistribution of crops, desertification,
and drought; reduced economic capacity; depression, mental illness; violence and terrorism.
Generations in the future will be left to cope with the results of excess resource extraction, pollution
and degradation (damage or worsening) of ecosystems (all living creatures in relation to their physical
environments) caused by those living now [31].
3. HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is expected to lead mainly to changes in existing health issues rather than to the
emergence of new and unfamiliar diseases. Climate sensitive diseases, associated with changing
patterns, include: Malaria, Diarrhoea and Protein-Energy-Malnutrition (PEM), infectious disease such
as tick-borne encephalitis and cholera [32].
Climate change is not just a global threat, but an unprecedented public health emergency. Protecting
health from impacts is central to mitigation and adaptation strategies. Threat to health is often cited to
justify actions to mitigate or adapt to climate change [33]. Climate change is expected to increase
threats to human health, particularly in lower income populations, predominantly, within tropical and
subtropical countries. Potential (actual or projected) public health consequences of climate change
include: Climate change impacts on the biophysical and ecosystems, with risks of loss of biodiversity,
aquifers, and soil fertility; the disturbance of natural and managed food-producing ecosystems (ocean
fisheries); flooding due to rising sea-levels; population displacement for reasons of physical hazards;
land loss, economic disruption and civil strife [34,35,36].
The actual health impacts will be influenced by local environmental conditions and socio-economic
circumstances, and by the range of social, institutional, technological, and behavioural adaptations
taken to reduce the full range of threats to health” [37].
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of the disease burden attributable to climate change afflicts children under
five [8].
3.1 Categories of Health Impacts
According to the World Health Organization (WHO) health impacts of climate change can be
categorized as ‘direct impacts’, ‘indirect impacts’, or ‘diverse health impacts’.
Direct impacts are caused by weather extremes, e.g. impacts of thermal stress, deaths/injury in floods
and storms. Indirect impacts, are due to health consequences of various environmental changes and
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ecological disruptions, that occur in response to climate change, including: changes in the ranges of
disease vectors (e.g. mosquitoes), water-borne pathogens, water quality, and food availability and air
quality. Diverse health impacts include, traumatic, infectious, nutritional, psychological disorders that
occur in demoralized and displaced populations, in the wake of climate-induced economic dislocation,
environmental decline, and conflict situations.
Determinants of health impacts include, ecological processes, social conditions, adaptive policies and
concurrent global environmental changes. Concurrent global environmental changes can
simultaneously affect human health – often interactively*, include vector-borne infectious diseases
which is jointly affected by climatic conditions, population movement, forest clearance and land-use
patterns, biodiversity losses (e.g., natural predators of mosquitoes), freshwater surface configurations,
and human population density [38].
Hazardous Impacts associated with climate change include: Injury, death and illness from extreme
weather events; air pollution related illness; water borne diseases; vector borne illness; heat related
illness and deaths; and cold related deaths; and human exposure to chemicals; disturbance of natural
and managed food-producing ecosystems, especially ocean fisheries; population displacement due to
physical hazards, land loss, economic disruption, and civil strife, with excess morbidity and mortality.
Health risk of climate change is the product of exposures to hazard and local vulnerability [8].
3.2 Extreme Weather Conditions
Extreme climate events are expected to become more frequent with climate change. The pacific-
based El Nino Southern Oscillation, an approximately semi-decadal cycle, influences much of the
world’s regional weather patterns. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and/or amplitude
of El Nino. Categories of climate extremes consists of simple extremes of climatic statistical ranges,
such as very low or very high temperatures and Complex events including droughts and fires, extreme
precipitation, storms and floods and hurricanes [39].
i. Storms and Floods cause death and Injury, displacement and disruption of health and
education infrastructure, exposure to mycotoxins, with psychological sequelae (e.g. mental
depression, suicide).
ii. Thermal extremes (Heat waves and cold spells). Generally, Extremes of temperature can kill.
Global climate change will be accompanied by an increased frequency and intensity of heat
waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters. Most deaths associated with thermal
extremes are in persons with pre-existing disease, especially cardiovascular and respiratory
disease. The very old and the very young and frail, are most susceptible. It varies between
populations.
Deaths, from cold spells, during winter season, are 10-25% higher than those in the summer. The
proportion of winter-related mortality, directly attributable to stressful weather, is not easy to
determine. When the reduction in winter deaths appear to outnumber the increase in summer deaths,
the net impact on annual mortality is difficult to estimate, without additional data. It varies between
populations in temperate countries.
Fatal heat waves, are due to severe dehydration, and exposure to extremely high temperatures,
especially in the poor and vulnerable poor, children, elderly, the chronically ill, persons on medication,
with lack of access to meteorological services. Warmer average temperatures, combined with
increased climatic variability, can alter the pattern of exposure to thermal extremes, and resultant
health impacts, in both equatorial and temperate climatic regions [15,30]. Heat waves are associated
with higher heat-related deaths and excess emergency admissions.
By 2050, the annual excess summer-time mortality attributable to climate change, is estimated to
increase several-fold, assuming acclimatization (physiological, infrastructural, and behavioural).
Without acclimatization the impacts would be higher. The actual mortality impact of an acute event
such as a heat wave is uncertain because an unknown proportion of the casualties are in susceptible
persons who would have died in the very near future [40].
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iii. Long term droughts and fires, in many regions, can lead to death, injury, displacement, and
poor air quality.
iv. Extreme precipitation correlates with outbreaks of waterborne illness, due to flooding, with
associated contamination of surface and ground water with sewage and sullage.
sullage Waterborne
diseases represent 15% of deaths of under-five (U-5), in developing countries. Pregnant
women, infants, young children, are among the most vulnerable to diarrhoea, from unsafe
water. Incidence of diarrhoeal disease correlates with increased temperature. Higher ambient
temperatures and associated changes in eating behaviour, favour faster growth of food borne
microbiological pathogens, especially Bacteria, Entamoeba Protozoa. Diarrhoeal diseases
increased worldwide by 2.4% in 2004 Children [8].
v. Hospitalizations for diarrhoea/dehydration, have been found to increase by up to 8% increase,
per 0C above normal average, during El Nino weather event. Extended geographic range
(latitude and altitude) and seasonality of certain infectious diseases – including vector-borne
infections such as malaria and dengue, and food-borne infections (e.g. Salmonellosis) which
peak in the warmer months [8,12,13,41].
Extreme climate events are expected to become more frequent with climate change. The pacific-
based El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an approximately semi-decadal cycle, influences much of
the world’s regional weather patterns. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and/or
amplitude of El Nino, which has been associated with increase in transmission of malaria [39,42].
Malaria seems likely to be the vector-borne

vector disease most sensitive to climate change. Excessive
rainfall and high humidity enhance mosquito breeding and survival. There is evidence that malaria
epidemic risk increases around five--fold in the year after an El Nino event [43].
Fig. 3. A Vector
3.3 Enhanced Infection Prevalence of Vector Borne Diseases
Vectors especially mosquito species, which spread malaria, and viral diseases, such as dengue and
yellow fever, need access to stagnant water in order to breed. Warmer temperatures enhance vector
breeding by reducing the pathogen’s maturation period within the vector organism. Adult mosquitoes
need humid conditions for viability, very hot and dry conditions can reduce mosquito survival.
Malaria today is mostly confined to tropical and sub-tropical regions. Disease’s sensitivity is illustrated
by desert and highland fringe areas where higher temperatures and/or rainfall associated with El Nino,
may increase transmission of malaria. In these areas of unstable malaria, especially in developing
countries, populations lack protective immunity and are prone to epidemics when weather conditions
facilitate transmission [44].
In high altitudes and latitudes, global warming is associated with enhanced vector breeding and
prolonged transmission season of vectors (Fig. 3) and vector borne diseases such as malaria,.
According to the WHO, the morbidity and mortality from climate sensitive diseases e.g. malaria
increased by 6%), in 2002 [8,30].
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IPCC has concluded, with high confidence, that climate change would cause increased heat-related
mortality and morbidity, decreased cold-related mortality in temperate countries, greater frequency of
infectious disease epidemics following floods and storms, and substantial health effects following
population displacement from sea level rise and increased storm activity [45].
3.4 Salinization of Coastal and Low-lying Areas
Sea level rise, is largely due to melting of Arctic and Antarctic glaciers. Rise in sea level causes
flooding of coastal and low-lying areas, leading to salination of sources of agriculture and drinking
water. Sustained salinization of coastal water and soil, is associated with the risks of massive
extinctions of aquatic biodiversity, loss of aquifers, soil fertility in Ecosystems. These negative impacts
on fisheries and aquaculture increase protein-calories malnutrition, especially among the poor and
vulnerable [3,32].
3.5 Human Exposure to Chemicals
Climatic change may alter human exposure to chemicals. Extreme precipitation, storms and floods
affect water quality, by increasing chemical waste in surface and ground water. Flooding increases
the concentration of non-volatile chemicals and toxic metals in water. Increased temperatures make
volatile chemicals to disperse more quickly in the air [8].
3.6 Air Pollution- Related Illness
Climate change is associated with increase in ground level ozone (O3). There is strong evidence that
ground level ozone is associated with increased frequency and severity of asthma attacks amongst
children, due to sensitivity of children to ozone at lower levels. The associated increase in incidence of
emergency Respiratory visits and hospitalizations are independent with temperature [8].
3.7 Natural Disasters (Droughts, Floods, Storms and Bush Fires)
Effects of natural disasters on health are difficult to quantify, because secondary and delayed
consequences are poorly documented or reported. The increasing trend in natural disasters is partly
due to batter reporting, partly due to increasing population vulnerability, and may include a
contribution from ongoing climate change. El Nino events influence the annual toll of persons affected
by natural disasters [46]. The number of people killed, injured or made homeless by natural disasters
has been increasing rapidly, especially in developing countries.
Developing countries are poorly equipped to deal with weather extremes, even as the population
concentration increases in high risk areas like coastal zones and cities. Especially in poor countries,
the impacts of major vector-borne diseases and disasters can limit or even reverse improvements in
social developments. Even under favourable conditions, recovery from major disasters can take
decades.
4. THE NIGER DELTA
4.1 The Study Area
The Niger Delta region is situated in the southern part of Nigeria (Fig. 4) and bordered to the south by
the Atlantic Ocean and to the east by Cameroon. It occupies a surface area of about 112,110 square
kilometers [47] and it occupies 7.5% of Nigeria’s land mass. Historically and cartographically, the
Niger Delta consists of the present day Bayelsa, Delta and Rivers states. In the year 2000, President
Obasanjo added Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Cross River State, Edo, Imo, and Ondo States (of the Federal
Republic of Nigeria) to the Niger Delta geo-political region. The Niger Delta region is distinct from the
Nigerian South-South Zone. The Nigerian South-South Zone is a geo-political zone comprising of only
six states, namely: Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers states. The present day
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Niger Delta region includes nine (9) States, including: Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta,
Edo, Imo, Ondo and Rivers [47].
Fig. 4. The Niger delta region and the states of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
Table 2. Geographic characteristics of the Niger Delta States
State Land Area Population Capital city

(Square kilometers) (Projected to 2005)
Abia 4,877 3,230,000 Umuahia
Akwa Ibom 6,809 3,343,000 Uyo
Bayelsa 11,007 1,710,000 Yenegoa
Cross river 21,930 2,736,000 Calabar
Delta 17,163 3,594,000 Asaba
Edo 19,698 3,018,000 Benin
Imo 5,165 3,342,000 Owerri
Ondo 15,086 3,025,000 Akure
Rivers 10,378 4,858,000 Port Harcourt
Total 112,110 28,856,000
Source: GTZ Population Projection based on 1991 Census & NDRDMP Demography & Baseline sectors study;
Agriculture and Rural Development Sector Study
Part or all of each of the nine (9) States of the Niger delta region, is located in the Niger Delta, of the
Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Niger Delta is the downstream of the 2,600 miles (4,200 km) long
Niger river, which rises in Guinea at 9º05l N and 10º47l W on the Eastern side of the Fouta Djallon
(Guinea). The Niger river, which drains a total area of 730,000 square miles (1,900,000), emerges at
Aboh or Abo, a city in Ndokwa East Local Government Area, Delta State, in the Delta region,
separating into many branches, and intricate network of rivers and creeks, before reaching the Gulf of
Guinea, of the Atlantic Ocean, to become Africa’s largest delta. Geographically, the Niger delta
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extends over a total area of 14,000 square miles (36,000square km), stretches for nearly 150 miles
(240 Km) from north to south, and spreads along the Atlantic Coast for about 200 miles (320 Km). The
Niger delta is being gradually extended seaward, by the increments of silt brought down by the Niger
river and its tributaries, with mangrove swamps observed to mark its coastal edge [21].
4.2 The Study Population
The population of the Niger Delta region is about 31 million people (Fig. 5 and Table 2), of more than
40 ethnic groups, that speak about 250 dialects. The ethnic groups include the Binis, Efik, Ibibio, Igbo,
Annang, Oron, Ijaw, Itsekiri, Isoko, Urobo, Ukwuani, and Kalabari; they are characterized by distinctly
colourful cultures and traditions [48].
Economically, 48% of employed persons in the Niger delta earn less than 5,000 Naira per month. The
unemployment rates in the Niger delta are higher than the national average (5%), except in Abia, Edo,
and Ondo States, with other states showing higher rates e.g. 18.2% in Akwa Ibom, 19.1% in Rivers
and 16.6% in Cross Rivers States. The Niger Delta region is characterized by developmental
contrasts (Fig. 6 & Fig. 7), international controversy over devastating pollution, poverty, genocide, and
human rights violation.
4.3 Petroleum and Gas Extraction

3
The Niger delta is an oil-rich region. About 2 million barrels (320,000 m ) a day are extracted from the
Niger Delta (Table 3). Together oil and natural gas extraction (Fig. 9) comprise “97% of Nigeria’s
foreign exchange revenues”. The Niger-Delta is West Africa’s biggest producer of petroleum and
natural gas.
th
Nigeria is rated as the 7 highest gas flaring nation in the world. Over 60% of the natural gas
extracted in oil wells in the Niger Delta region is wastefully flared (Fig. 9), into the air, at a rate of
approximately 800 million mm scf (million standard cubic feet) per day, causing significant local air
pollution that contributes to global warming and atmospheric ozone formation. Several Legal efforts to
abate or end gas flaring, through gas re-injection plans, by 1969, 1983, 1984, 2003, 2004, 2008,
2009, 2011, 2012, 2020, in Nigeria, especially the Niger- Delta region, have been ineffective, due to
poor implementation of the Penalty (NGN10/Mscf) and monitoring by the regulatory bodies, including:
Ministry of Petroleum Resources and Energy, Nigeria Gases Company and Federal Ministry of
Environment [49,50,51].
Fig. 5. Population projections for the Niger Delta Region (2005-2020)

Source: NCR Master Plan baseline survey
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Fig. 6. A rural household in the Niger Delta
Fig. 7. Modern housing project in aggrey road, Port Harcourt

Source: Federal Republic of Nigeria. Niger Delta Region. Land and People. Niger Delta Regional Development
Master Plan
Fig. 8. An offshore oil drilling rig in the Niger Delta Region

Master Plan
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Table 3. Niger delta oil and gas summary profile, 2004
Contribution of crude oil export to national foreign exchange Over 80%

Average daily crude production 2mill BPD
Number of wells drilled in the Niger delta Region 5,284
Number of flow-stations for crude oil processing 257
Length of oil and gas pipelines in the region Over 7,000km
Number of export terminals 10
Land and area within which the network of pipelines are located 31,000Sq km
Number of communities hosting oil/gas facilities Over 1,500
Gas flares-out target date 2008
Number of petroleum training institutes in the region 1
Number of free export 2
Number of gas plants in the region 10
Number of marginal oil fields farmed out to local companies 30
Fig. 9. Gas flaring in the petroleum and gas industry
4.4 Pipeline Vandalization & Oil Bunkering
Illegal oil bunkering is effectively Nigeria’s most profitable private business [52]. Vandalization of
pipeline leads to oil spillages that endanger highly diverse ecosystems which are supportive of
numerous species of terrestrial and aquatic fauna and flora [5], including humans. Spillages have
been associated with respiratory symptoms, mutagenicity, carcinogenicity due to bioaccumulation of
lipophilic aromatic hydrocarbons, which are common constituents of petroleum oil, in organic tissues
[53, 54, 55].
“some experts in the oil sector are in consensus that the persistence upsurge of illegal bunkering
in the Niger Delta is due to high levels of youth unemployment, armed ethnic militia, ineffective
and corrupt law enforcement agencies and other state actors who are often part of an
international syndicate. They argued that oil theft and pipeline vandalism continued to thrive in
Nigeria inspite of government’s efforts because of some vested interest of powerful persons
involved in the business and the lack of political will to deal with it. They believed that the Nigerian
leaders especially the political class is benefiting from illegal oil bunkering hence lack political will
to confront it. They further argued that if the leaders are not benefiting directly or indirectly, they
must have come up with measures or legislation to stop the menace [56]”
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5. ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY OF NIGER DELTA TO CLIMATE CHANGE
5.1 Ecological Zones in the Niger Delta
The Niger-Delta region of Nigeria is one of the mega-deltas of the world. There are five ecological
zones in the Niger Delta: The Mangrove Forest and coastal vegetation; Fresh water swamp forest,
lowland rain forest, derived savannah and Montane region. The impact of climate-related hazards on
the ecosystems is compounded by extreme poverty, and devastating environmental degradation by oil
spillages and gas flaring associated with the petroleum industry.
5.2 The Mangrove Forest and Coastal Vegetation
The mangrove zone is up to 40 km wide, bordered to the south by the Atlantic Ocean, is exposed to
the hazards of climate - related sea rise, including life-threatening sea surges, coastal erosions,
extreme flooding events, intrusion of saline sea water into fresh water system, with risks of alterations
of ecosystems.
The dominant vegetation in the 40 km mangrove zone, is freshwater swamp forest with occasional
small salt marshes where sea water washes over the beaches. The mangrove floor provides
habitation for innumerable smaller flora and fauna (e.g. shrimps and microscopic algae) illustrating the
global importance of the mangrove ecosystem. Greenhouse gas emissions and environmental
degradation from petrochemical industrial activities in the Niger delta promote climate change and
directly threaten the biodiversity of the rich mangrove ecosystem. As the soils are poorly drained and
sandy, soils are not conducive for farming, there is little direct conversion of mangrove forest to
agricultural land. Local communities are exposed to sea surges, flooding, live on stilts and elevated
homes; main subsistence is fish farming and with a high index of poverty [47].
5.3 The Fresh Water Swamp Forest

2
The fresh water swamp forest (Fig. 10) covers approximately 17,000 km or about half of the Niger
delta region. Rich in timber and rare and endangered wildlife. It is susceptible to hunting and
deforestation which compromise the biodiversity of the ecosystem.
The swampy forests are subject to the silt-laden ‘white water’ of the Niger floods with very high fishery
and agricultural potential. The ‘white water’ sector is divided into two broad zones: (a) the Upper Delta
or Flood Forest zone and (b) the Swampy Tidal Freshwater zone and (c) the ‘Transition or Marsh
forest zone (permanently swampy, tidal – freshwater zone, with more narrow and sandy channels,
that lies between the flood forest and the mangrove zone). The ‘Upper Delta’ or Flood Forest zone
(Aboh to Bomadi and Oporoma) has large sandy river channels, high flood levels and numerous flood
plain lakes. Prolonged flooding periods and shortened season for farm crops are compensated for by
very high fishery and fertile silt from the flood –high agricultural potential [47].
5.4 Low Land and Rainforest
The Low land (Fig. 11) and Rainforest (Fig. 12) zone occupies the non-riverine or ‘upland’ areas has
been largely cleared for agriculture by the demands of an increasing population. Low land and
rainforest are in high demands for seasonal crops [37].
5.5 Derived Savannah Zone
Derived Savannah Zone (Fig. 13) is found in the northern part of the Niger delta. The vegetation is
largely a re-growth after the original vegetation has been cleared for agriculture. It comprises
Savannah type grasses and shrubs with a few scattered trees. It is densely populated. As a result of
the constant pressure on vegetation for fossil fuel, it is virtually impossible for trees to grow to
maturity, leading to constant deforestation [47].
106
Fig. 10. A village in the fresh water Swamp in Delta State

Master Plan
Fig. 11. Low land
Fig. 12. Rain forest in Niger Delta Region

Master Plan
107
Fig. 13. Derived Savannah Vegetation

Master Plan
Fig. 14. Obudu cattle ranch in the Montane Ecozone
5.6 The Montane Zone
The Montane Zone (Fig. 14) is confined to the north eastern part of Cross River State, around Obudu/
Sankwala area. It is approximately 900 to 1,500 m above sea level. It has low species diversity
compensated for, by high floristic diversity, with high eco-tourism potential [47].
5.7 Vulnerability to Climate Change
Vulnerability is the susceptibility to harm, in terms of a population or a location. Vulnerability to climate

change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects
of climate variability and change [51]. Vulnerability is dynamic and may itself be influence by climate
change (e.g. extreme weather events affecting health infrastructure)
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From a health perspective, vulnerability can be defined as the summation of all risks and protective
factors that ultimately determine whether a sub-population or region, experiences adverse health
outcomes due to climate change [58]. Characteristics of a region, such as baseline climate,
abundance of natural resources (e.g. access to fresh water), elevation, infrastructure and other factors
can alter vulnerability. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate
variation to which a system or population is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.
The vulnerability of a population to the potential impact of climate change depends on factors such as:
population density, level of economic development, food availability, income level and distribution,
local environmental conditions, pre-existing health status, and the quality and availability of public
health care [59].
5.8 Impacts in Coastal Areas and Low-lying Areas
i. The Coastal Areas, Low-lying Areas, and river banks, in the Niger delta region are at
increased risk of extreme weather events, and impacts of climate change, due to large
populations and high exposure to sea level rise, storm surges, coastal erosion, and river
flooding, exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas, especially oil
spillages and gas flaring.
ii. Risk is increased by relatively low adaptive capacity to climate change, already existing
tropical storms, and local coastal subsistence agriculture.
iii. Small islands would be especially vulnerable due to exposure of population and infrastructure
to recurrent and projected climate change impacts.
iv. Ocean acidification and warming have the potential to impact negatively on the aquaculture
and fisheries in the Niger delta.
v. The poor, dwelling in often rapidly expanding communities, located near rivers and coasts,
and who use or depend on climate sensitive resources, are vulnerable to extreme weather
events.
vi. Increase in the economic and social costs of disruptive events with the potential to displace
populations, due to more intense and/or more frequent, extreme weather events, especially
storms, extreme precipitation and flooding [1].
5.9 Sectoral Vulnerability
i. Agriculture: Lack of access to improved seeds, prolonged droughts and/or floods

ii. Ecosystems: threats to rich but fragile biodiversity, habitat loss, over-harvesting of selected
species, the spread of alien species, hunting and deforestation
iii. Water: poor access to clean drinking water and sanitation, overfishing, industrial pollution,
sedimentation with degradation of local water sources.
iv. Climate and weather: complex maritime and terrestrial interactions, extreme and prolong
flooding cause migration, cultural separation and collapse of communities, increased risks of
diarrhoea, cholera and malaria, economic and human losses
v. Economic Stressors to Climate Change: endemic Poverty, complex governance and
institutional dimensions’ limited access to capital including markets, infrastructure, and
technology; ecosystem degradation, complex disasters and conflicts.
vi. Population: Social vulnerability to climate-related impacts is determined by poverty, inequality;
marginalization, food security, access to insurance, and housing quality.
vii. Others: complex interaction of socio-economic, political, environmental and cultural factors,
regional conflicts, variability of weather and climate, volatile commodity prices and the various
influences of globalization, increase in the spread of HIV/AIDS and Ebola Virus Disease
(EVD) due to economic stagnation and low progress in education which produce a ‘freefall’ in
the Human Development Ranking [1].
5.10 Character of Climate Variability in the Niger Delta

The Niger-Delta region is bordered to the south by the Atlantic Ocean and coastal communities are
exposed to the hazards of climate-related sea level rise; increased precipitation; prolongation of
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seasonal Flooding in non-coastal areas characterized by riverine creeks and flood plains (especially,
Aboh to Bomadi and Aporoma) [41,47]
5.11 Magnitude of Climate Variation in the Niger Delta

Life threatening sea surges, coastal erosions, extreme flooding events; prolonged flooding can
shorten farming season, increase risks of displacement, water contamination, mosquito breeding,
overcrowding, with vulnerability to excess morbidity and mortality from malaria, malnutrition,
diarrhoeal diseases, respiratory diseases and possible land disputes; intrusion of saline sea water into
fresh water system with; risks of alterations of ecosystems [31,47].
5.12 Rate of Climate Variation
Meteorological evidence of variations in climatic elements (Temperature, Rain, and Wind, Sun, etc.)
exists, with increased frequency of precipitation in all the ecological zones of the Niger Delta:
Mangrove Forest and Coastal Vegetation; Freshwater swamp Forest; Lowland Rainforest; Derived
Savannah and Montane Region. Climate variation increases the magnitude of vulnerability to climate
change, increased risk and frequency of extreme flooding events [32,47,60].
Nigeria’s Future Climatic Variation has been measured. Validated differentials of datasets (1950-
2000), obtained from four meteorological stations (Lagos, Owerri, Port Harcourt, Bauchi) of the
Nigeria Meteorological Service (NIMET), Oshodi Lagos State, were randomly applied to the future
temperature and rainfall from the Worldclim model, to obtain the database for the future (2001 – 2050)
temperature and rainfall for Nigeria, using the Statistical Downscaling Approach [61].
Measurements predict an increase in climatic variations of both temperature and rainfall in the Niger-
delta region, between 2000 and 2050. In the low-lying coastal areas, due to rise in sea level, there will
be intensified flooding, with inundation of wetlands, with erosion of beaches and increase in salinity of
rivers, ground water, bays, and harbors.
There is evidence that Spectral analysis of observed and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data, can be
used for the prediction of climate variations, e.g. temperature was predicted to increase by 0.65–
1.6°C and precipitation was predicted to decrease by 13–11% in the next two decades (i.e., 2016–
2025 and 2026–2035) relative to 1961–1990, in the Lake Chad basin (LCB) [62,63,64,65].
Access to accurate predictions of future climate variations, including weather forecast, should serve
as opportunity to promote and support simultaneous actions on mitigation and adaptation, for full
transformation of economies of vulnerable communities, groups and individuals.
5.13 Sensitivity of Population or System to Climate Variation
Sensitivity of population of the Niger Delta to climate variation is determined by level of awareness of
climate change, cause, effects, mitigation and adaptation, poverty, inequality, marginalization, food
entitlements, access to insurance, housing quality and lack of resources (including meteorological
services, political will), for appropriate response to climate change including building adaptive capacity
through community mobilization [8,47].
5.14 Community Adaptive Strategies to Climate Change
Historically, communities in the region have adopted cultural practices compatible with the flood
regimes and the associated fluvial processes. But, with the increase in population pressure,
accompanied by urbanization, industrial development and agricultural expansion, the subsisting
equilibrium has been altered dramatically, leading to the situation in which flooding is impacting
negatively on the land and people of the region. The result is that the area of the arable land that can
no longer be cultivated owing to annual floods, environmental degradation from industrial wastes and
drainage problems has increased [47,25].
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6. RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NIGER DELTA REGION
6.1 National and Niger Delta Region
The Federal Republic of Nigeria, in Partnership with the nine State Governments of the Delta Region,
should bring together gender-diverse, and youth sensitive, multi-sectoral, multi-jurisdictional,
multidisciplinary, decision makers, including, civil society, local authorities (CBOs, FBOs, Traditional
Leaders, Youth organizations, NGOs, women leaders), and international organizations, to urgently
address mitigation and adaptation to the vulnerabilities and impacts of the Niger Delta region to
climate change, and to develop ambitious solutions toward a full transformation of economies, in line
with sustainable developmental goals (SDGs), as follows:
i. a national and regional transition to renewable energy, such as, wind or solar power, that is
not depleted when used.
ii. sustainable and resilient infrastructure, cities and communities;
iii. sustainable agriculture and management of forests and oceans;
iv. resilience and adaptation to impacts of climate change;
v. alignment of public and private finance with a net zero economy;
vi. strengthen economies, create jobs, ensure cleaner air, preserve natural habitats and
biodiversity and protect the environment from gas flaring, air pollution, oil spillages and
biodegradation;
vii. end subsidies for fossil fuels and GHGs-high-emitting agriculture and shifting towards
renewable energy, electric vehicles and carbon smart vehicles;
viii. carbon pricing that reflects the true cost of GHG emissions, including impact to climate
change, and health impacts of air pollution;
ix. transition from fossil-fuel driven economy to new technologies based on cheaper and more
sustainable solar and onshore wind engineering options;
x. Accelerating the closure of coal plants, halt the construction of new ones, replace jobs with
healthier alternatives, for a just, inclusive and profitable, climate-sensitive and sustainable
transformation of the Niger Delta region [15,16,20,57].
6.2 State governments in the Niger Delta
i. Adopt or adapt the national adaptation strategies, especially emergency preparedness, for
flooding events, for local implementation in the nine states.
ii. give infusions of resource support to our public, health infrastructure and disaster preparedness
programs and always remembering a specific focus on vulnerable populations, the needs of
children and future generations.
iii. Increased education of primary and secondary school children about the need for communities
to think and act in ecologically sustainable ways, and about the ways of lessening personal and
family exposure to environmental hazards consequent upon global environmental changes.
iv. Replace biomass fuels or bio-fuels, with clean renewable energy. Biomass fuel is a fuel
produced by dry organic matter or combustible oils produced by plants. These fuels are
considered as renewable as long as the vegetation producing them is maintained or replanted,
such as firewood, alcohol fermented from sugar, and combustible oils extracted from soya
beans. Their use in place of fossil fuels cuts greenhouse gas emissions, because the plants that
are the fuel sources capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
There is Evidence from Multivariate Panel Data Analysis that there exists a statistically significant and
positive relationship between renewable energy production and economic growth for both developed
and developing economies [66].
v. Develop “smart” local electrical grids to reduce GHGs emissions, prevent new emissions,
prevent cardiovascular diseases and deaths, and get necessary energy to households.
111
vi. Improve public transportation and create bike lanes, to reduce need for personal vehicles on
the roads, decrease road congestion, reduce noise, decrease air pollution, promote health,
and save money.
vii. Strengthen traditional diet and advocate ‘eat low on food chain’, local and organic, when
available, to support local farm/economy, improved nutritional quality, prevent obesity, and
lower the risk of chronic diseases.
The demand for local food, by consumers, have been fuelled by increasing consumer curiosity
regarding the ingredients in their food, concerns about the environmental impact of the non-local food
system and the desire for an authentic brand story. Consequently, food outlets, including grocery
stores, restaurants, and universities, have sought to incorporate locally sourced products on their
shelves.
Fig. 15. Renewable energy technologies

Source: Maradin, D., Cerović, L., & Mjeda, T. (2017). Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Technologies.
Naše gospodarstvo/Our Economy, 63(2), 49–59. DOI: 10.1515/ngoe-2017-0012
The demand for local food is helping to support the recovery of the agricultural industry that suffered a
decline, with growth of both number and size of farms, with increasing median age of farmers. The
financial impacts of increase in the sales of local foods, especially of fruits and vegetable farms, with
gross annual revenue under $350,000, will likely result in positive net farm income and increased farm
viability, due to low operating expense ratios.
Compared with wholesale imported food marketing, direct marketing of local farm products, can
create up to 21.5 additional jobs for every $1 million in revenue, as a result of direct marketers
purchasing a greater share of inputs, locally (89 percent compared with 45 percent) [67].
].
viii. Green the environment, including active Tree planting, with enforcement of appropriate
policies, strategies and implementation through community-based action.
112
ix. Strengthen coastal defences against rising sea levels.

x. Manage local and regional fisheries sustainably, in order to maintain nutritional (especially
protein) supplies.
xi. Town planning and enforcement of public health laws with free drainages, to mitigate flooding.
xii. Improved Public transportation to reduce individual carbon footprint, by reducing the number
of individuals driving their own cars.
xiii. Efficient and effective implementation of Environmental sanitation policy to avoid blocked
drainages and transmission of communicable diseases.
xiv. Housing policy with strengthening and protection of public infrastructures (schools, health
institutions, power lines, etc.) from adverse impact of extreme weather conditions.
xv. Each of the nine states should create awareness of climate change, ensure participation of
individuals, institutions, communities and states, in decision-making on adaptation, and
empower positive adjustment to consequences of climate change – variability, thermal
extremes and flooding, with emergency preparedness, sensitive to vulnerable groups, in the
Niger delta region [8,30,57,68].
6.3 Individuals, Institutions, Communities
i. Everyone from individual, institutions, communities in the nine states of the Niger delta region
should be empowered on basic information on climate change, mobilized to participate in the
strategic decisions for mitigation measures and adaptation to climate change, through
community mobilization.
ii. Individuals should alter clothing and recreational behaviour, especially of children, to reduce
exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. ‘There is nothing like bad weather, what there is, is
inappropriate dressing’ [8,11,30].
7. DISCUSSION
1. The Niger Delta region of Nigeria is vulnerable to both actual and projected impacts of climate
change.
There was a 2-4 mm increase in rainfall (e.g. in Port Harcourt), between 1941 and 2000. Data
from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) has predicted that the Niger Delta region
would experience projected impacts of climate change in the Niger delta region, including
increased temperature, increased average annual rainfall, increased rainfall variability,
increased rainfall events including storms and floods, due to increasing sea level rise.
2. The vulnerability of Niger delta region to adverse impacts of climate on the biodiversity of the
existing ecosystem and human health is exacerbated by bunkering of petroleum products and
vandalization of oil pipelines leading to spillages of petroleum products that endanger highly
diverse ecosystems, which are supportive of numerous species of terrestrial and aquatic
fauna and flora, including humans. Spillages have been associated with respiratory
symptoms, mutagenicity, carcinogenicity due to bio-accumulation of lipophilic aromatic
hydrocarbons (which are common constituents of petroleum oil), in organic tissues.
8. CONCLUSION
8.1 Climate Change
Climate change, with global warming, is unequivocally attributable to human activity, especially the
growing use of fossil fuel energy, with the expansion of the global economy.
Climate change, characterized by global warming and extreme climate variability, is attributable to
greenhouse gas emissions, especially Carbon dioxide. Long term changes in climate, observed at
continental, regional and ocean-based scales, include, increase in arctic temperatures and melted ice,
increased ocean salinity, extreme wind patterns and extreme weather events, such as, prolonged
droughts, heavy precipitation, heat-waves, with increased intensity of tropical cyclones. The
phenomenon of climate change will have devastating effects, if global warming is left unchecked or
113
left to rise above 1.5oC. Global warming and extreme weather events increase incidence of climate
sensitive injuries, water-borne, food-borne, vector-borne and heat-related illnesses and deaths.
The Niger Delta region of Nigeria is vulnerable to both actual and projected impacts of climate
change.
8.2 Hazardous Activities of Petroleum and Gas Industry in the Niger Delta Region
The vulnerability of Niger Delta region to climate variability, environmental degradation and adverse
impacts of climate, is exacerbated by gas flaring, bunkering of petroleum products and vandalization
of oil pipelines leading to spillages of petroleum products that endanger highly diverse ecosystems,
which are supportive of numerous species of terrestrial and aquatic fauna and flora, with the potential
to cause food insecurity, increased morbidity and mortality.
8.3 Vulnerability of Niger Delta Region to Climate Change
The Niger delta constitutes 32% of the total land mass of the geographic area occupied by the Niger
delta region. The 200 miles (320 Kilometres) extensive coastal boundary of the Niger delta with the
Atlantic Ocean, exposes the vulnerable Coastal Areas and Low-lying Areas, and river banks, in the
Niger delta region, to storm surges, coastal erosion, and extreme flooding events, due to sea level
rise. The vulnerability of large populations and communities of the Niger delta region to extreme
flooding, and other climate change-related extreme weather events, is compounded by extreme
poverty, low adaptive capacity, poorly implemented mitigation measures, risks of internal
displacements, ‘water stress’, with increased morbidity and mortality.
8.4 Response to Climate Change in the Niger Delta Region
Appropriate response to climate-related hazards in the Niger delta region requires collective political
will of the nine states of the Niger delta region. Action would include: regional strategic plan for
mitigation measures and adaptation; meteorological services; creation of public awareness of climate
change, cause, effects, mitigation and adaptation, through community mobilization; and building
‘human capital’ with adaptive capacity for emergency response to extreme weather events.
To be effective, credible, profitable, climate-sensitive, and sustainable, appropriate response to

climate change, requires gender-diverse, youth-sensitive, multi-sectoral, multidisciplinary, and multi-
jurisdictional, bottom-up decision-making, by National and Regional governments, for a just and
inclusive plan, that must show the way toward a full transformation of economies and environments of
the Niger Delta region, in line with sustainable developmental goals (SDGs).
The vulnerability of individual communities, in the Niger Delta Region, should be assessed using
standard Scientific United Nations procedure. National and Regional governments should establish
alliances and partnerships between vulnerable communities and academic institutions (experts from
the physical and sciences, economics, health/demographics, management and policy), local
stakeholders, and capacity building leaders from research institutions, government agencies, and
non-profit organizations, with a clear mandate to make the sustainability of the Niger Delta region a
top priority. Partnerships and alliances of civil societies should also be encouraged to build “social
capital” and empower the citizens for developmental projects, towards the socio-economic
transformation of the Niger Delta region from vulnerability to resilience to adverse impacts of climate
change, in compliance with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
9. RECOMMENDATION
1. There is a need for urgent response to actual and projected impacts of climate change in the
Niger Delta region, by Federal and Regional governments.
2. The Federal Government of Nigeria should provide leadership and mobilize resources to
implement the ‘National Policy on Climate Change and Response Strategy (NPCC-RS)’, and
114
the UNFCCC Policies, especially as regards reduction of emission of obnoxious substances

(GHGs and petroleum products) into the environment, in line with the United nations legal
instruments (The Kyoto protocol and Paris Agreement).
3. The Federal Ministry of the Niger Delta and the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC)
should develop programmes that respond to the needs of coastal communities exposed to sea
level rise, storm surges, coastal erosion, to control coastal erosion, ensure emergency
preparedness, environmental rehabilitation, and protect the shores, water, schools, health care,
and hospitals.
4. All State Governments should have an official vision statement on climate change, with
integration of the National Policy implementation strategies for mitigation measures and
adaptation to climate change, into all existing and new Development Plans, policies, PHC,
States’ annual Budgets and programmes.
5. Each State Government should have a focal Ministry, Department or Agency mandated to lead
and provide strong coordination of inter-ministerial, inter-agency and public-private partnership,
all the climate change mitigation and adaptation activities, including monitoring and evaluation.
6. Local Governments, in collaboration with the Federal and State Governments, to build the
resilience of communities to climate change, through active participation and ownership of
decisions to buy into the opportunities presented by climate change, for socio-economic
transformation of their environments.
7. The Organized Private sector, Civil Society Organizations (especially Women and Youths
Organizations, Faith-based Organizations, and Traditional Rulers), International Organization
and donors should be fully involved to ensure youth participation and gender-sensitive
programmes, including sponsorship of research into climate change, in compliance with the
sustainable development goals (SDGs).
8. Households, individuals, including children should learn about climate change and how to
reduce their carbon foot-prints, by eating local food products, and greening their environments.
9. Develop skill-based school curriculum and appropriate teaching strategies and techniques to
empower children and young persons, at pre-primary, primary, secondary and tertiary levels of
education.
10. Adequate media coverage of climate change, to create public awareness of climate change,
causes, impacts, mitigation, adaptation, including disaster management, emergency
preparedness and care of vulnerable groups.
11. Retrain health care workers to appreciate emerging climate change health impacts within the
context of immunization, and other comprehensive healthcare delivery.
COMPETING INTERESTS
Author has declared that no competing interests exist.
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the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA; 2007.
118
Stephena Udinmade Ighedosa

Department of Community Health, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria.
Research and Academic Experience:
1. Ph.D. (University of Glasgow, Scotland. 1983)

2. Scientific Invention of the Two Bowl Initiative (TBI, 1999). Won 1st prize in School of Medicine, in the 1st UNIBEN
Research Day Conference. Patented by the Federal Republic of Nigeria, on 21st July, 2019.
A scientific response to control risk of contamination of source of water, and to prevent the recontamination of washed hands,
by hand washing initiative, highly applicable in Resource Limited Settings, where the taps do not flow. TBI is especially
recommended in health care settings for the control of Nosocomial Infections that can be acquired by contact.
Research Area: Epidemiology, Infection Control, Climate Change, Community and Social Mobilisation and Primary Health
Care.
Number of Published papers: 39
Special Award (If any):
1. Scientific Invention of the Two Bowl Initiative (TBI, 1999). Won 1st prize in School of Medicine, in the 1st UNIBEN
Research Day Conference.
2. National Certificate of Honour, NYSC, (Best Youth Corper, Anambra state), Nigeria. 1979.
3. Distinguished Alumni Award, College of Medical Sciences, UNIBEN, 2005.
Any other remarkable point(s):
1. First Female Medical Graduate, University of Benin

2. Established HIV/AIDS Information Centre, 2006
3. Founder, Centre for Disease Control (CDC), University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City. Conceived,
Developed the Proposal, Designed the Structure, and successfully defended the Proposal for the Centre for Disease
Control (CDC), at the National Assembly, Abuja leading to decision by National Assembly to replicate CDC at Abuja
and the six (6) geopolitical zones. The first CDC was officially commissioned on Monday, 7th January, 2008, by the
Honourable Minister of Health, in Benin City.
_________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 9(12): 764-788, 2019.
Reviewers’ Information
(1) Benjamin Chukwumah Anwadike, National Open University of Nigeria, Nigeria.
(2) Rafael Infante, Caribbean University, Puerto Rico.
119
Chapter 8
Antarctica - The Superlative Continent

Amal Kumar Ghosh1*
ABSTRACT
Antarctica, the south polar continent is unique in all esteem from physiographic, climatic, and biologic
to noospheric wonders. It is the cosmopolitan region of broad-based research arena for the benefit of
humankind. The earthly realm with scarce soil cover supports minimum moss, lichen and abundant
algae from floral sphere and few species of insects, birds and amphibians from faunal domain within
this harsh no own-man’s land, although Antarctic Ocean is full of lives for huge oxygen supplement.
These provide ample food addendum to the aquatic as well as semi-terrestrial higher animal species.
It is the only unique dome to be adorned with so many of utmost adjectives. The present study helps
to undermine the inimitabilities and its importance in the field of science in addition with courageous
expeditions to unveil it again to the present world.
Keywords: Antarctica; terra incognita; south polar continent; superlative.
1. INTRODUCTION
Antarctica or anti arktik (opposite to the Arctic) or once terra incognita is the treasure trove of
research for the scientists from almost all disciplines viz. atmospheric science, biology, chemistry,
geology, glaciology, meteorology, oceanography and so on. Once, the dare businessmen have
unearthed this lucrative seal hunting ground for fat-oil, meat and fur, without any propaganda, for high
return in the days of huge fuel-oil crisis. They probably roamed for new field of profuseness and
invented more and more new annexed islands rather than the almost impenetrable icy continental
mainland. Later, hundreds of expeditions have glorified this once hitherto unknown continent of too
many adjectives of superlative degrees. Whether various cognomens have to equate with the
physiognomies of this majestic continent starting from pre-exploration days’ perceived, Terra Australis
Ignota; Terra Australis Incognita or Unknown Southern Land (of Ptolemy); Terra Australis Nondum
Cognita to the post-discovery periods’, The Ice Continent; The Home of the Blizzard; The White Desert;
The Last Continent; The Sixth Continent; Down South; Down Under; The Ice; The Pulsating
Continent, the Antarctic continent remains the cockpit of exciting endeavour to reapproach therein [1].
2. STUDY OF RELATED LITERATURE
Antarctica, the latest revealed continent is studied well both by the researchers, viewers and the
passionate people for its unique adornments from all corners of biotic and abiotic world. Manifold
research activities from at least 30 nations in either individual, group or multinational level have been
generating hundreds of research papers within few decades with their unrelenting zeal amidst severest
physiographic as well as climatic environments. Although, “Earth-science study of Antarctica,
however, had barely begun before the 1957–1958 International Geophysical Year (IGY) and was
largely based on a few visits from ships or reconnaissance dog-team or over-snow vehicle traverses”
[2]. Gressitt [3] reported on Antarctic vertebrates and invertebrates. LaPrade [4] focussed on the
climate, physiography and the resultant landforms by glacial erosion in Queen Maud Mountains.
Campbell et al. [5] vividly studied the soils of Antarctica and came in conclusion about the huge
dissimilarities in such apparently homogeneous terrain even within the narrow limits and also
distinctiveness of Antarctic environment according to variance of available moisture, elevation,
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Department of Geography, Fakir Chand College, Diamond Harbour, West Bengal, India.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: amalghoshbdn@gmail.com;
Antarctica - The Superlative Continen
landform, latitude, proximity to oceans, temperature etc. in the various operating systems or cycles.
McKnight et al. [6] carried out researches on aquatic ecosystem of McMurdo Dry Valley streams.
Australian paleontologist, Long [7] had accounted a real life experience in every aspects of this
‘hostile land’ ranging from rocks, fossils, dry valleys, glaciers to the living world. Ducklow et al. [8]
have undergone investigation works on the marine ecosystem of the Western Antarctic Peninsula.
Luis [9] worked on the climate of Antarctica and coined the word describing the continent as a
‘barometer’ as this landmass is the key indicator of global climate change. Kennicutt et al. [10]
affirmed the coupling connections between the Antarctica and the rest of the world with climatic
matters and echoed about the widen sphere of research of geophysical phenomena of Antarctica.
3. DARED EXPEDITIONS
Greek philosopher Aristotle and his contemporaries have aptly guessed the likelihood of presence of
another continent as a balancing existence in south polar location in the Spherical Earth [11].
Polynesians had also expressed the same notion. Centuries later, many travelers and expeditioners
had reached the various annexed islands in the south, guessing a more probability of the reality of
the continent. Cook (1772-1775), Ross (1839-1843), Scott, Wilson (1901-1904) with Bowers,
Oates and Evans (1910-1912), Shackleton (1901-1904, 1907-1909, 1914-1917, 1921-1922),
Amundsen (1910-1912), had underwent world’s most courageous expeditions to unveil the south
polar location. Their efforts were extraordinary in those days of unavailable sophisticated ice going
vessels or modern detection tools.
Captain James Cook of the British Royal Navy had sailed thousands of kilometers encircling
Antarctica around 71ºS from 1772-1775 which was only 120 kilometers away from the mainland.
He had withdrawn their last hope by the unapproachable icebergs.
James Clark Ross of England, entered into the deadly McMurdo Sound during their expeditions in the
Antarctica within 1839 and 1843 and discovered Transantarctic Mountains, Erebus and Terror
volcanoes (named after his two warships of Discovery Voyage).
The ever famous Earthly expeditions led by the dared officer of the British Royal Navy, Robert Falcon
Scott in two spells of 1901-1904 and 1910-1912 and was able to reach the Terrestrial South Pole on
January 17, 1912 which was five weeks later of Amundsen’s. Scott was the brightest character of
Antarctic History [12]. The first expedition was hampered by scurvy and snow blindness and the
second one was terminated with saddest ending of ever hardest toil in the scarcity of food, clothing,
though with countless number of scientific investigations spending too much of time while
approaching towards the South Pole destination. The ultimate endeavour (1910-1912) with his four
companions, Edward Adrian Wilson, Henry Robertson Bowers, Lawrence Edward Grace Oates and
Edgar Evans were extremely in mourned state at the edge of a conquest. By seeing the Norwegian
flag, Scott sparingly reacted in misfortune by uttering, “Great God! this is an awful place and terrible
enough for us to have labored to it without the reward of priority” [13].
Ernest Henry Shackleton, one of the companions of Scott’s first exploration (1901-1904) team and an
expeditioner of four spells had performed huge commendable works on Antarctica with too much of
toil and sickness in shortage of food and subsequent disease.
Roald Engelbregt Gravning Amundsen, a Norwegian polar explorer discovered the geographic South
Pole in December 14, 1911 with ‘clinical precision’, aim and aspiration. His quest for mere discovery
of the South Pole with expertise plans and programmes, proper measures and precautions had led him
almost a hassle free success.
4. FEATURING ANTARCTICA
The virtually uninhabitable and incomparable terrain was unexposed till January, 26, 1820. Dozens of
unparalleled degrees of attributes certainly glorify the continent in a multiplicity of senses as here in
under:
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Brightest Arena: Spectacular snowflakes often seen as crystal clear and the deep ice cover also
reflects sunlight, making vision difficult without sunglass. The mirror smooth surfaces often illuminated
even by the faint cosmic lights. Immense whiteness itself fully reflect and scatter lights of many
wavelengths which resembles floodlit.
Cleanest Continent: It is the cleanest one due to its remoteness from the so called habitable world
and near absence of polluting ingredients in the Snowy Continent. The absorbing and filtering functions
of thousands of kilometers stretched oceans help to retain its near virginity to be the cleanest
continent of the world.
Cloudiest Expanse: It is worthwhile to label the continent about the greyest nature barring the
extract, “The mingling of sea, sky, and ice makes this region among the cloudiest on Earth: a perennial
fog hangs cloyingly over the pack; the scene is shrouded in a stormy grey twilight” [14].
Coldest Exposure: Polar locations, absorbent deficient clear atmosphere, high altitudinal situations
and also the high albedo return of the smooth reflective ice cover have enabled the continent to be the
coldest region of the Earth. Antarctica experiences -50º Celsius of temperature on an average,
highest of any such vast continental expanse. Soviet research station, Vostok once had undergone a
st
dead frozen temperature of -89.2º Celsius on 21 July, 1983, ever highest record in the world,
although there are more pockets of extreme low temperatures in higher locations. The exposure to
the extremity of freezing conditions may prove fatal within a minute for the men or other outer
creatures.
Costliest Field: Antarctica is surrounded by almost inaccessible frontiers of ice wall far from the other
continental main lands. So, it is not at all easily approachable through sea routes, although ice
breaking ships or cruise services are scantily available from Argentina or South Shetland Island with
high tour package. Flight services are in operation from New Zealand, Australia, South America or
South Africa. The prohibitive continent always sets restrictions for its adversity all the year round.
Deadliest Grander: The highest degrees of harshness in respect of dead chilling effects, dangers of
crevasses and frost bite, hostile surrounding oceans, blizzards, drinking water shortages, coldness
and scarcity related disease proneness, faunal invasions from killer whales, leopard seals often
jeopardize the accomplishments of the humans. “Antarctica is a deadly continent, a place where
under normal conditions, death would be the usual human state of existence! Despite all the
precautions taken each year fatal accidents keep occurring there” [7].
Driest Ground: Antarctica is the extremely cold polar desert of its largest kind in the world context of
5.5 million square miles being the recipient of scanty precipitation of less than 50 millimeters and
inability of its melting due to its intense coldness. It satisfies a balancing equation of evaporation with
precipitation. It is peculiar to mention that the high altitudinal dry valleys are free from ice cover.
Excessive dryness inhibits the rotting and thereby helps to preserve the foodstuff, medicines and even
dead bodies for thousands of years.
Fairest Isle Landmass: Antarctica deserves splendidness in so far as the austerity, beauty and
unspoiled whiteness is concerned. The snowy environment emits the glowing reflection of sanctity or
inviolability.
Farthest Landscape: Antarctica, the isolated islandic entity is far away from any other six continental
main lands of the Earth. The nearest southernmost point of South America, Cape Horn, covers a
distance of 1000 kilometers of the nearby axis of continental peninsular tip of the Antarctica. The next
one is of the Oceania.
Harshest Land of Expedition: Antarctica is a land of ever most unbelievable, laboured

expedition beyond imagined trouble of toiled destination. The real experiences as sketched from the
journey of Wilson, Scott and Shackleton may be viewed as, “Everything was so still and dead and
cold and unearthly… the silence one ‘felt’ as a thing that had been broken by nothing but wild nature’s
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storms since the beginning of the world” [15]. The hostile zone of austerity deters to welcome there in
the region of sternness.
Highest Limit: This continent is the highest of all continents on Earth. The average elevation is 2500
m (8200 ft.) with higher south polar location of 2835 m (9300 ft.). Mount Vinson is the highest point of
Antarctica with an elevation of 4892 metres (16050 ft.) in Vinson Massif Mountain of Sentinel Range.
Mt. Sidley is the highest volcano of Antarctica with an elevation of 4285 metres (14058 ft.), which is
dormant in nature.
Iciest Loop: Antarctica is the biggest storehouse of ice in both thickness and areal spreading from
time immemorial. About 98% of the land is endowed with ice cover. The 14.2 million square
kilometers of extended Antarctic icy mass lies approximately on only 7 kilometers of underlying
bedrock. The Shelf Ice and Fast Ice do satisfy this territorial extension. The monotonous and
perplexing icy surfaces do create gyrating effect among the human beings.
Largest Potable Water-mass: The continent alone contains 70% of world’s fresh water reserve in
its ice sheets. Melting of these will certainly change the Earth’s physical, physiographical as well as
biological spheres.
Last Periphery: Captain James Cook of the British Royal Navy, an explorer, navigator,
cartographer with his crew members discovered the nearby islands of Antarctica in 1773. But, Fabian
Gottlieb Thaddeus von Bellingshausen, a Russian naval officer, cartographer and explorer with
Mikhail Petrovich Lazarev discovered the mainland of Antarctica on 27 January, 1820, last of its kind
in so far as the discovery of continent is concerned.
Least Rockiness: This continent exhibits only 2% of bare rocky part which is incomparable to any
other continent of the world. It is ever strange in this perpetually extreme coldness. Penguins and
seals do prefer this ground for resting, nesting and breeding purposes.
Loneliest Reach: The unique expression about this continent undermines the degrees of solitude as,
“The depths of despair and loneliness are redolent of Shakespeare’s Macbeth in his speech which
opens with ‘Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow’ (Macbeth, V. v. 19)” [16]. Antarctic continent is
the impermanent home of seasonal or yearly researchers and other workers which often ranges from
1000 in winter to as high as 5000 in summer, although yearly tourists turnover is nearly 50,000.
Antarctic Treaty declares of not allowing any one to own a land to live there. Although, few Argentine
and Chilean families try to populate there with a hope of future land and resource acquisition.
Lowest Land Location: This continent hosts this planet’s deepest point (-3500 metres) in terrestrial
location within the Denman Glacier in Queen Mary Land of East Antarctica under the thick ice-mass.
The canyon under this glacier was discovered by BedMachine Antarctica project by the University of
California, Irvine and recognized it as the deepest natural place on land location.
Quietest Corner: The Antarctic silence is akin to that of ‘deathly silence’ or even more than that.
‘Deafening Silence’ i.e. invincible cold-calmness prevails throughout the continent which one can’t
presume before.
Remotest Rear: Antarctica is the remotest continent in terms of its accessibility and huge distances
excepting only from the South America. It is not at all connected regularly by any modes of transport
and deserves special time long attention, programme and training to set foot for any reason.
Ruggedmost Stretch: Huge bareness, high in-hospitability and ice trap in places altogether
constitute the ruggedness of the continent. Once the climber in the rugged Queen Maud Land uttered
while facing the high altitudinal target, “They’re just these giant teeth and daggers and pear tips. They
just explode right out if the ice. For me, it’s been an obsession to go there” [17].
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Southernmost Region: Antarctica is the Southernmost Continent of the Planet Earth with its
numerous counts of islands having ice cover. The South Geographic Pole is the southernmost point
on the Earth.
Thickest Terrain: This continent holds nearly 30 million cubic metres of ice of potable nature which
satisfies 4.5 kilometers of depth. This may help to raise 60 metres of sea level worldwide.
Time Zone-less in Particular: The south polar Antarctica is a land of converging longitudes to make
it a rarest continent of all time-zone or absence of any particular time zone. Researchers often get
confused while working in different locations, where they follow the respective nation’s time.
Whitest Territory: The continent is 98% covered with 90% of world ice to become a White Continent.
Colossal ice sheets, glaciers, iceberg, pack ice, fast ice spreading altogether make the whitest image
of this continent. The fairest white patch in the south polar continent hinders the continental look
under the almost perpetual ice cover.
Windiest Zone: The continent is endowed with strong katabatic or downslope wind which originates
due to dense cold air flow from the polar plateau. Once in July, 1972, the Dumont d’Urville Station of
East Antarctica shows a maximum wind speed of 327 km/hour (203 mph). Blizzards or snowstorm are
common in the Antarctica causing extreme miseries among the population of the continent.
Wondermost Land: In the views of Scott, “The eye travels on and on over the gleaming plain till it
meets the misty white horizon, and above and beyond, the soft, silvery outlines of the mountains. Did
one not know them of old, it would sometimes be difficult to think them real, so deep a spell of
enchantment seems to rest on the scene. And indeed it is not a spell on man alone…” Edward
Wilson, a polymath “…medical doctor, naturalist and ornithologist of the highest order, a sledger,
diarist and artist”, of Antarctic Exploration of the Heroic Age and an eminent member of Scott’s
Discovery and last expeditions, precisely painted, “…the wonders of icebergs, atmospheric
phenomena such as irridescent clouds, paraselenae and parhelia” [16].
5. CONTINENT OF SCIENCE
Antarctica is a land of splendid Transantarctic Mountains (which divide the continent into east and west
parts), Antarctic Peninsula, Queen Maud Land, Victoria Land, Wilkes Land, Marie Byrd Land,
Geographic South Pole and Magnetic South Pole and also glaciers, valleys, volcanoes, lakes, ice
shelves and seas of many kinds (Fig. 1).
The Antarctic continent is the paradise of reality for scientific investigations which provides
magnificent research opportunities extending from above atmosphere to the ice underneath ranging
from physical, astrophysical to astronomical nature. The drilling activities into the underlying primeval
ice below the large Antarctic Ice Sheets, rock mass, and other preserved sedimentary evidence
studies may unveil the past history of climate change, primordial flora and fauna, and paleo-
magnetism. The two poles are constantly maintaining the energy balance of the Earth. The frequent
energy inflow from the atmosphere and oceans, the poles loose its identity and transforms to thermal
radiations. Again, the ice-cold winds combining with lower latitudinal warmer air to develop clouds
control the global environment [18].
The superlatives of the factual landmass draws attention to its multifarious intensification rather than
attenuation, which is really manifested by the following excerpts:
“The cold core of the global atmosphere and the tangled vortex of the world ocean roughly coincide
with the ice field of Greater Antarctica, creating a complex zone of mixing. The Ice is surrounded by a
circumference of swirling storms, where Antarctic and subantarctic air masses mingle; by braided
currents and fronts that mix Antarctic and subantarctic waters; … Of these processes, sea ice is both
a product and a producer… the iceberg is the most interesting ice mass in Antarctica, the pack ice is
the most interesting ice terrane. Its rapid life cycle, its explosive winter growth and catastrophic
summer collapse, the infinite movements of its numberless floes, with their constant rupturing …
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Antarctica is not only a land for science but a land of science. Without the scientific revolution
Antarctica would have remained unexplored. Science alone justified expeditions of discovery; the
information brought back was cast into the sciences or was generated specifically by the sciences;
and science directed the course of geopolitical no less than intellectual assimilation” [14].
Fig. 1. Antarctica
“Coldest, windiest, driest, most isolated, least populated, most pristine, and most peaceful—
Antarctica is a land of extremes, offering precious perspectives on the Earth system and its relation to
humankind … in Antarctica, science has the added value of being a central pillar for the ‘‘firm
foundation’’ of international cooperation … Essentially, science offers a method and philosophy for
studying and managing the world we live in. The scientific method starts with a question, which grows
into hypotheses that are objectively tested to reveal likely answers. Rooted in inquiry, this
experimental process is fundamental to the ‘‘progress of all mankind’’… Beyond its quantitative
mien—which is paradoxically perceived with awe and disdain—science offers humankind common
ground in searching for answers about the past, present, and future. In fact, the further we project
backward or forward, the more central science becomes” [19].
“Antarctica is significant in the global relative plate motion circuit because it geometrically connects
the African and Pacific hemispheres along a path that can be directly reconstructed at past times from
seafloor and continental records” [20].
“Antarctica is well worth reading about. It is not a commonplace continent, but on the contrary is in all
ways remarkable…Lurking mysteriously off the map, Antarctic events invite geographic context by
scientists and news agencies” [21].
“…Antarctica and the Southern Ocean offer great opportunities for inspiring popular interest in science
in much the same way that space exploration did in the latter half of the 20th century…including the
climatic shifts that the Earth has undergone in its history, the adaptation of polar species to the rigors
of life in Antarctica, the predictability of space weather, and the origins of the Universe… In the late
19th century and early 20th century, explorers pressed inward on the Antarctic continent to set foot on
the magnetic and geographic South Poles and discover more about the nature of this strange and
125
forbidding place. What was under the ice? How did seals and birds live in such extreme climate and
weather? And perhaps most important, was Antarctica a place with a future for humans? The hope for
treasure, a major impetus for exploration in the Age of Empire, was dashed early: There was no easy
way to explore for, and much less to exploit, mineral and other resources Antarctica might hold… The
Antarctic continent brings together scientists who push forward the frontiers of human knowledge,
those who have recognized the rich opportunities for advancing fundamental knowledge on this vast
ice-covered continent and the surrounding wild Southern Ocean. The Antarctic region contains unique
natural environments; preserving these for experimental science requires a continued commitment to
stewardship that should not be lost as science moves forward in the coming decades…” [22].
“Antarctica is at the very end of the Earth, yet human activity is having a significant impact on its
environment. Changes in atmospheric circulation arising from the impacts of humans elsewhere are
causing regional effects such as the breakup of ice shelves, marked changes in sea ice
concentrations in the southern Pacific Ocean and Ross Sea areas, and reductions in krill
concentrations in the South Atlantic. These are all associated with increased carbon dioxide
emissions and the effects of the Antarctic ozone hole” [23].
“The most amazing place in the Dry Valleys – undoubtedly one of the most amazing on the whole
continent – is the site of the Blood Falls. The brownish red falls come from Taylor Glacier, the coldest
glacier on Earth containing constantly flowing water. The unusual formation was first found by
Australian geologist Griffith Taylor in 1911, …” Later it was revealed that the salt water containing iron
oxide comes in contact with the oxygen to form colour of blood [24].
Apart from those, Ozone Hole Phenomena caused by the multiplicity of factors have attracted
worldwide attention to the researchers. Strong circular wind or ‘polar vortex’ develops and blow
throughout the whole Antarctic continent in winter which helps to keep isolate Antarctic air from rest of
the world. Polar Stratospheric Cloud or pearl like ‘nacreous clouds’ formation at 80,000 ft. below upper
atmospheric temperatures of -80º Celsius helps to gather Ozone breaking pollutants. Here, nitric acid
content of the clouds react with CFCs to form chlorine which catalyzes the photochemical destruction
of Ozone.
6. CONCLUSION
Antarctica, world’s southernmost wonderland deserves astound ground of high research which
inevitably has geophysical ‘coupling’ connection in regulating Earth’s wind and oceanic circulation,
temperature and upper air global atmospheric exchange and Ozone Hole Phenomena. This continent
is the one and only unique Amphitheatre for its severity in climatic, physiographic and physiognomic
enchanting nature. The rear but expressively near, naturally protected open laboratory is the key
focus of the researchers. Warning free physiographic and climatic death trap, ever unreceptive
weather and precautions defying hostile hub may riddled any one to their ultimate destiny. The ever
increasing quest of leap of humankind to this thrilling land regularly spoils the soil and soul of
extremity with heavy pollution load and high risk of introducing alien species of organisms. Although,
Antarctic Treaty System is helping to retain its de facto condominium status out of distressing state to
retain its superiority even in the event of incessant increment of temperature and pollution level to
ingather the lessons of thriving biota along with these dissuaded landscape for the generation of
newer resistant one for the benefit of the civilization.
COMPETING INTERESTS
Author has declared that no competing interests exist.
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UK. 2019;95.
127
Dr. Amal Kumar Ghosh

Department of Geography, Fakir Chand College, Diamond Harbour, West Bengal, India.
He obtained Ph. D. degree in Ecology (Environmental Science) from the University of Kalyani, West Bengal, India in 2000. He
stood first class third in M.Phil. in the same discipline and university. He secured first class second in Geography master’s
degree and first class fifth in undergraduate level from the University of Burdwan and awarded National Scholarship. He also
bagged first divisions in both the pre-degree examinations.He began his teaching profession from Burdwan Raj Collegiate
School as Assistant Teacher. He is now the Associate Professor in Geography of F.C. College, Diamond Harbour and acts as
the guest teacher of the P.G. Section of the Department of Education in the same institution. He acted as the coordinator of the
Department of Geography, Diamond Harbour Women’s University for a spell of two years in its initial stage of 2015-2017
session. He was morning in-charge in his present institution and also performs his duties as governing body members in both
his own college and other. He is the author of more than 20 research papers, published in both national and international level
journals and books. Though his thrust areas are soil and environment but he covered a wide variety of topics ranging from
Antarctica, biodiversity, child labour, environment, environmental education, historic events and geographic evidence,
landscape dynamics, origin of life, pre-historic climate, river valley project, soil, Sundarbans, transport, wetland and so on.
_________________________________________________________________________________
128
Chapter 9
Studies on the Impact of Seasons on Leaf Dust

Accumulation and Biochemical Parameters of
Selected Plant Species along Side the National
Highway-7 in Sirmaur, H.P, India
Jyotsana Pandit1*, Anil Sood1, Satish Kumar Bhardwaj1
and Anish Kumar Sharma2
ABSTRACT
The present study was carried out to assess the dust interception efficiency and impact of seasons on
biochemical parameters of plant species growing alongside National Highway (NH-7) at Sirmaur, H.P,
India. Plants are universal sink of CO2. The plant species selected for the study were Ficus roxburghii,
Mallotus philippensis, Shorea robusta, Woodfordia fruticosa. The observed trend of dust accumulation
-2 -2
was in the order Ficus roxburghii (38.30 mg m ) >Shorea robusta (26.94 mg m ),>Mallotus
-2 -2
philippensis (22.31 mg m ) >Woodfordia fruticosa (16.70 mg m ). The present study revealed, that
the leaf dust accumulation decreased with increasing distance from the national highway. Leaf dust
accumulation was influenced by the seasons of the year with the maximum (30.70) in pre-monsoon
and the minimum (21.42) in post-monsoon season.
Keywords: Vehicular emission; dust; ascorbic acid; chlorophyll; pH; relative water content.
1. INTRODUCTION
Atmospheric particulate matter represents a complex mixture of organic and inorganic substances of
varying size and may enter an organism or plant in a number of ways. Roadside vegetation
communities are greatly affected by the dust from highways and roads due to changes induced in
biochemical parameters (ascorbic acid content, pH, Relative Water Content, total chlorophyll content).
Particulate pollutants can cause many lethal effects on plants like stomatal clogging, reduced
photosynthetic activity, leaf fall and death of tissues [1]. Plants play very important role in improving
the ambient air quality. Morphology and internal structure of leaves is altered by heavy load of dust
pollutants [2]. Foliar surface of plants is the main receptor of dust as it is continuously exposed to the
surrounding atmosphere [3]. The ability of each plant species to absorb and adsorb pollutants by their
foliar surface varies greatly and depends on several biochemical, physiological and morphological
characteristics [4]. The capacity of leaves as dust receptors depends upon their surface geometry,
phyllotaxy, epidermal and cuticular features, leaf pubescence, and height and canopy of trees [5].
Smaller plants with short petioles and rough surface accumulate more dust than larger plants with
long petioles and smoother leaf surface [6]. Vegetation provides a natural means of cleaning the
atmosphere with large leaf area for impingement, absorption and accumulation of air pollutants level
in the environment [7]. Reduction has been measured in photosynthetic pigments due to deposition of
particulate matters on the upper surface of the leaves [8]. It is well evident from the previous studies
that the contents of chlorophyll, ascorbic acid, protein and carbohydrate are affected due to the air
pollution [9]. Various biochemical studies of foliar tissues has reported decrease in chlorophyll content
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Department of Environmental Science, Dr. Y.S Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, Solan, H.P 173230,
India.
2
School of Sciences, PP Savani University, Surat, Gujarat 394125, India.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: jyotsanapandit@gmail.com;
Studies on the Impact of Seasons on Leaf Dust Accumulation and Biochemical Parameters of Selected Plant Species along
Side the National Highway-7 in Sirmaur, H.P, India
and the increase in ascorbic acid content as a result of air pollution [10]. Plants show visible changes
depending on their sensitivity level which would include alteration in the biochemical processes or
accumulation of certain metabolites [11]. The climate condition, the physico chemical properties of air
pollutants have impact on surrounding plants [12]. Roadside plant leaves are in direct contact with air
pollutants, and may act as stressors for pollutants, hence need to be examined for their biomonitoring
potential [13]. Biomonitoring of plants is an important tool to evaluate the impact of air pollution [14].
Keeping in view the above parameters the present study was undertaken to assess the variation in
leaf dust accumulation with respect to species and seasons and observe seasonal variation in
biochemical parameters of plant species growing alongside the National Highway-7.
2.1 Study Area
Sirmaur district lies among the outer Himalayan ranges between 77°01’12" and 77°49’40" East
longitude and 30°22’30" North latitude. The location of the study site is presented in Fig. 1. The 40 km
stretch of Markanda to Paonta Sahib National Highway (NH-7) in Sirmaur District of Himachal
Pradesh was selected as the study area in the present investigations. The study area is facing a
severe problem of air pollution due to large vehicular density and expansion of highway as well as
increased demographic pressure.
Fig. 1. Map showing sampling locations of plant species alongside Markanda to Paonta
National Highway (NH-7) in Himachal Pradesh
2.2 Climate
During the study period (2015-2016) in the selected stretch of National Highway (Markanda to Paonta
Sahib) no rainfall was experienced during the months of October-November (post monsoon season).
Whereas, a rainfall of 18.7 mm was recorded during April-May (pre monsoon season). Maximum
temperature varied from 28.95 to 37.45°C and minimum temperature varied from 8.8 to 18.5°C.
Relative Humidity varied from 53.4 to 67.34% (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2. Distribution of minimum, maximum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity during
sampling seasons (2015-2016)
130
2.3 Sampling of Dust and Leaves
The study was conducted during two seasons i.e. post-monsoon (October- November, 2015) and pre-
monsoon (April-May, 2016), respectively. The 40 km stretch of the National highway from Markanda
to Paonta Sahib was divided into four equal parts of ten kilometres each (four study locations). In
order to study the impact of vehicular emissions on the plants, plants were selected from 0-10 m and
10-20 m horizontal distances from both sides of the road. The commonly occurring plant species
namely Ficus roxburghii, Mallotus philippensis, Woodfordia fruticosa and Shorea robusta were
selected for the study. The morphological characteristics of the selected plant species are given in
Table 1. Fully mature leaves of the selected plant species were taken for the present studies. The
upper surface of the leaves was cleaned with fine brush and identification mark was put on them.
These leaves were kept for 24 hours for dust accumulation and were collected in the pre weighed
butter paper bags with the help of fine brush. After taking the data for dust accumulation, the leaves
were cut from petiole, kept in ice box and brought to the laboratory for further analysis. The individual
2
leaf (in m ) was measured with Leaf area meter (Model-LI-COR-3100). The samples were
weighed using top pan electronic balance and the amount of dust was calculated using the equation
W= (w2 - w1) / a, Where w is dust content (mg m-2), w1 is initial weight of butter paper bag, w is final
2
weight of butter paper bag with dust and a is total area of the leaf (m ). In order to study the
correlation of weather parameters of different seasons and its relationship with dust accumulation and
pollution on the leaves of selected plant species the weather data was procured from (Fig. 2).
Table 1. General description of selected plants species
Plant Common Family Habit Leaf shape Leaf Pubescence

species name texture
Ficus roxburghii Trimmal Moraceae Tree Tree Cordate-ovate Coriaceous Present
Mallotus philippensis Kamala Dye Tree Euphorbiaceae Tree Ovate-lanceolate Smooth Absent
Shorea robusta Sal Dipterocarpaceae Tree Ovate-oblong Coriaceous Present
Woodfordia fruticosa Dhai Lythraceae Shrub Ovate Smooth Absent
2.4 Biochemical Analysis
Ascorbic acid content was estimated by using A.O.A.C (1980) [15] method. Total chlorophyll content
[16] and relative water content [17] was also determined. 5 g leaves was homogeneized using distilled
water and pH of the filtrate was detected using digital pH meter.
3.1 Leaf Dust Accumulation
The seasonal variation in leaf dust accumulation of different plants under study is presented in Fig. 3.
-2
The maximum dust was accumulated in Ficus roxbughii (38.30 mg m ) which was significantly
different from all other values (Table 2). Whereas, minimum dust was noticed in Woodfordia fruticosa
(16.70 mg m-2) which was at par with Mallotus philippensis (16.70). Highest dust accumulation on the
leaves of Ficus roxburghii may be attributed to its broad and coriaceous leaf texture which might have
accumulated more dust on leaves and prevented dust fall from leaf surface [18]. Lowest amount of
dust observed on Woodfordia fruticosa may be attributed to its smaller leaf size and smooth surface
due to which dust settled on the leaf surface may slip down due to gravitational force or even by wind.
These results are similar to those of Joshi and Bora [19] who reported that dust deposition capacity of
plants depends on their surface geometry and leaf external characteristics. It was observed that all
plants showed higher dust deposition in pre monsoon season due to construction or road making
activities at the study locations [20]. Further this may be attributed to higher temperature conditions in
the study area as compared to post monsoon months (Fig. 2). The highest dust load of 49.35 mg m-2
was noticed on leaves of plant species growing at the distance of 0-10 m from the National Highway
(Table 2, Fig. 4) due to high dust intensity which results by the vehicles activity and capturing dust
with a gentle wind [21]. High dust deposition on leaf surface at road side with heavy vehicular traffic
may be due to spray of unburnt oil residue of diesel or petrol on the leaf surface [22]. These results
131
are also in conformity with the findings of Younis et al. [23] who reported that dust accumulation is
more in plants growing at roadsides due to high dust intensity which results by the vehicles activity
and capturing dust with a gentle wind.
Table 2. Dust accumulation (mg m-2) of the selected plant species growing alongside the
Markanda to Paonta Sahib National Highway (NH-7) during sampling seasons
Plant species Horizontal distance Season

0-10 m 10-20 m Mean Pre monsoon Post monsoon
Ficus roxburghii 71.06 5.54 38.3 43.03 33.57
Mallotus philippensis 42.9 1.71 22.31 27.26 17.35
Shorea robusta 51.33 2.56 26.94 32.09 21.8
Woodfordia fruticosa 32.11 1.28 16.7 20.44 12.95
Mean (distance) 49.35 2.77 Mean 30.7 21.42
(season)
Pre monsoon 58.33 3.08 30.7
Post monsoon 40.37 2.46 21.42
Fig. 3. Leaf dust accumulation of selected plant species during sampling seasons
Fig. 4. Leaf dust accumulation of selected species at different horizontal distances
3.2 Ascorbic Acid Content

The present study reported higher ascorbic acid content during post monsoon season in all the plant
species Fig. 5a. Pollution load dependent increase in ascorbic acid content of plant species may be
due to more production of antioxidants (ascorbic acid) under stress conditions prevailing in the study
area (road construction activities) during the post monsoon season. These results are similar to those
of Bhattacharya et al. [24] who reported that ascorbic acid was higher in winter as the pollution load
increases in this season due to meteorological conditions. The results are also in line with the findings
of Garg and Kapoor [25] who reported that dust accumulation caused alkalinity in leaves by chemical
132
dissolution of dust particles in cell sap which results in chlorophyll damaged and in order to
accommodate these stresses leaves ascorbic acid content increased.
Fig. 5. Variation in ascorbic acid content, total chlorophyll content, pH, relative water content
of selected plant species during different sampling seasons
3.3 Total Chlorophyll Content

-1
The leaf chlorophyll content of the selected plant species varied from 1.17 mg g (Ficus roxburghii) to
1.64 mg g-1 in Shorea robusta. The result exhibited lowest leaf chlorophyll content in all plants during
pre monsoon season (Fig. 5c) due to maximum dust accumulation. Dust particles carry many
polycyclic hydrocarbon and metals with them which inhibits the production of enzymes required for
chlorophyll synthesis and results in reduction of chlorophyll content [26].
3.4 Leaf Extract pH
In the present study maximum pH during during pre monsoon season was associated with the higher
leaf dust accumulation during pre monsoon months. Dust accumulation caused alkalinity in leaves by
dissolution of chemicals present in dust particles i.e., metals and polycyclic hydrocarbons in the cell
sap thus increasing the pH [27].
3.5 Relative Water Content
All the plants showed higher relative water content during post monsoon (Fig. 5d) season due to high
relative humidity (Fig. 2) in the atmosphere during post monsoon season which might have increased
relative water content due to less transpiration, whereas lowest was observed during pre monsoon
season. The lower relative water content during pre monsoon season may be attributed to more dust
accumulation during pre monsoon season (Table 2). Dust may absorb water through non cutinized
plant surface such as leaves, stems and branches, contributing to decreased relative water content
[3].
133
4. CONCLUSION
The present study revealed, that the leaf dust accumulation decreased with increasing distance from
the national highway. Leaf dust accumulation was influenced by the seasons of the year with the
maximum (30.70) in pre-monsoon and the minimum (21.42) in post-monsoon season.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors acknowledge the Head, Department of Environmental Sciences, Dr.Y.S Parmar UHF,
Nauni, Solan for providing necessary laboratory facilities.
COMPETING INTERESTS
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135
Jyotsana Pandit
Department of Environmental Science, Dr. Y.S Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, Solan, H.P 173230, India.
Research and Academic Experience: M.Sc. research; Ph.D research
Research Area:
M.Sc. research: Assessment of air pollution tolerance index of plants growing alongside Markanda to Paonta Sahib National
Highway (NH-7) in Himachal Pradesh
Ph.D research: Environmental implications of urbanization in Solan District of Himachal Pradesh.
Number of Published papers: 6
Any other remarkable point(s): Qualified ICAR ARS NET and UGC NET in stream of Environment Science.
_________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER
Current World Environment, 12(2): 421-428, 2017.
136
Chapter 10
Assessment of Temperature Variability Effect on

Rice Production in Nasarawa State, Nigeria
Oladeinde Stephen Olufemi1*, Magaji I. Joshua2 and Ekpo Abraham Salamatu3
ABSTRACT
The output of cereal farmlands is imperative for sustainable global food security. Quantity of
production from cereal croplands are partly a function of climatic elements and are connected to the
pulses of climatic variation. Hence, this paper assessed temperature variability effect on rice
production in Nasarawa State, Nigeria. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data were obtained
from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and converted into monthly averages while annual rice
production data was obtained from the office of Nasarawa State’s Agricultural Development
Programme. Acquired data were analysed using Linear Multiple Regression Model, coefficient of
variation and spatial data analysis techniques. Although rice production in the State is being affected
by the fluctuations in both minimum and maximum monthly temperature, the later poses grave
concern for sustainability of rice production with a negative effect size of -3.145 and a coefficient value
of -191,324.30 metric tons. This negative impact of maximum temperature fluctuations on rice
production indicates that rice production in Nasarawa State is vulnerable to climate variability with
increasing maximum temperature. LGAs in the south senatorial district has more favourable locations
for rice production in comparison to those in the North and West districts given that less temperature
fluctuation was observed in the former. Government and non-governmental institutions as well as
individuals planning to establish rice farm project(s) in the study area should consider doing so in the
South Senatorial District in order to avoid the adverse effect of temperature variability.
Keywords: Climate; variability; temperature; rice production; spatial vulnerability.
1. INTRODUCTION
The output of cereal farmlands is imperative for sustainable global food security. In 2011 the cereal
crops of maize, rice and wheat were ranked second, third and fourth respectively in terms of universal
production of agricultural commodities and rice had the highest worldwide net production value [1].
Globally, croplands cover 12% of the terrestrial land surface and combined cropland and pasture now
cover similar extend of land than forests and have already exhausted the best farmland [2,3]. The
food security of large proportions of the world population depend on ‘focal’ regions of exhaustive
cropping.
Rice in particular, is one of the major cereal crops to feed the world’s growing population [4]. About 3
billion people consume rice daily. As one of the most common staple foods for humans, it feeds more
people than any other crop [5]. In Nigeria, rice production is very important because it is the
commonest staple diet of the Nigerian people. Rice production needs to increase to meet future
population growth. Any decline in rice production through climate change and variability would thus
critically impair food security in the country. Therefore, quantifying the effects of climate change on
rice farming and assessing the potential of rice farmers to adapt to climate change are urgent
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA-COPINE), Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile Ife, Osun
State, Nigeria.
2
Department of Geography, Faculty of Environmental Science, Nasarawa State University, Nasarawa State, Keffi, Nigeria.
3
Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Environmental Science, Nasarawa State University, Nasarawa State,
Keffi, Nigeria.
*Corresponding author: E-mail: femioladeinde@gmail.com;
Assessment of Temperature Variability Effect on Rice Production in Nasarawa State, Nigeria
research topics. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) asserts that the level of Nigeria’s self-
sufficiency in cereals has been falling resulting in rapid growth in the amounts of cereals imports,
especially rice imports, which increased 130 percent in 2001 over the previous five-year average [6].
Quantity of production from cereal croplands are partly a function of climatic elements and are
connected to the pulses of climatic variation [7,8]. Variations in climate determinants or rise in climatic
variation may possibly reduce levels of cereal crop production [8]. Universally, billions of people have
been susceptible to productivity losses in some ‘focal’ cereal production systems.
This is revealed by the 2008 food price where the highest impacts on the poorest segment of society
came from deficits in production and food price instabilities [9].
Climatic variability refers to the oscillation which occurs from year to year and the statistic of extreme
situations such as severe rainstorms or abnormally hot seasons [10]. According to Christensen, et al.
[11], climatic variability refers to spatio-temporal disparity in climatic situations beyond individual
climatic events. Likewise, Houghton et al. [12] also define climatic variability as changes in the mean
condition and other statistical descriptions of extreme climatic conditions at all time and space scales
further than individual climatic activities. Climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climatic
events are of great importance in the African region. Agriculture has been exposed to various extreme
meteorological events, for example, droughts, floods and temperatures increase every year with
significant economic losses, as with Indian farmers [13].
Temperature is a vital parameter that limits the growth of plants and crops. Therefore, there seems to
be some affiliation between temperature and yields from cultivation. High temperatures influence
some crops and lead to reduced yields [14], which eventually affect food security. The study by
Deressa and Hassan [15] shows that a slight upsurge in temperature in summer and winter has
caused a decrease in crop yield and yield per hectare. Reducing farmers 'income and incomes has a
significant impact on farmers' livelihoods and on some of the socio-economic roles they play in the
family.
Also, Basak [16] used simulation model to investigate the influence of climate fluctuations and change
in rice production in Bangladesh. A drastic reduction from 13.5 to 2.6% and from 28.7 to 0.11% was
found harvest yield, if the maximum temperature increases by 2°C and 4°C respectively. Although the
maximum and minimum temperatures give rise to reduced harvest yields, the model showed that
higher temperature effect on yield is higher than the effect of low temperature on yield.
According to Lobell et al. [8], high climate variability represents a delicate balance between
agricultural production and food security. Lobell also thinks that changes in agronomical relevant
climatic variables (for example, rising temperatures and decreasing levels and rainfall distribution) are
likely to reduce yields of rice, maize, and other cereals, in the semi-arid regions of the world.
Particularly in developing countries, global climate variability is resulting to yield decline for most
important crops [14].
A forward looking assessment by Parry et al. [17] of the effect of climate variability on four cereal
crops (wheat, maize, soyabean and rice) using two different climate models revealed that India and
Nigeria are the worst affected regions and will experience yield reductions of 2.5% and 5%,
respectively, between 1990 and 2020. Impacts are expected to be generally more pessimistic by
2020, except for India, where the potential yield changes should be lower (between 0 and -2.5%).
Losses are forecast to be slightly more widespread across sub-Saharan Africa.
Reports opined that increasing global temperature is likely to boost agricultural production in the
temperate regions; it is expected to reduce yields in the tropical regions of the world [18]. It is
projected that many African regions will suffer from drought and floods with greater frequency and
intensity in the nearest future [19]. The report further suggested that the rise in average temperature
between 1980/1999 and 2080/2099 would be in the range of 3-4°C across the entire African continent
which is 1.5 times more than the global level. The report continued that Africa’s Mediterranean region
138
will experience a decrease in precipitations during the century. These dry conditions would affect the
northern boundary of Sahara and West African coast where Nigeria lies.
Rain-fed agriculture remains the mainstay of the majority of households in Nigeria and Nasarawa
State in particular, and is a significant sector in Nigeria’s economy. The significance of the agricultural
sector to Nigeria’s economy cannot be overemphasized as it is a catalyst for food provision,
contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP), provision of employment, provision of raw materials
for agro-allied industries, and generation of foreign earnings. A sectoral analysis in 2006 of the real
GDP indicated that the agricultural sector contributed to about 42 percent of the GDP compared with
41.2 percent in 2005 [20]. Over 60% of the Nigerian populace depends so much on agriculturally
related activities for sustenance and crop production takes significant aspect of agricultural related
activities in Nigeria. For instance, crop production contributes more than 80% of Agricultural GDP and
more than 48% of total non-oil GDP in Nigeria [20]. Today, climate change and food insecurity are
twin devils that have been identified as urgent world problems. This is because food security which is
mainly from agriculture is threatened by the emergence of climate variability as agriculture serves as
one of the sensitive sectors to this threat. Ayinde et al. [21] opined that climatic fluctuation is putting
Nigeria’s agriculture system under serious threat and stress. This implies that rural sustenance and
food security of the country is under serious threat as crop production takes significant aspect of
agricultural activities in Nigeria.
In order to achieve related Sustainable Development Goals (goal 1-End poverty in all its forms
everywhere; goal 2-End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote
sustainable agriculture; goal 8-Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full
and productive employment and decent work for all; goal 12-Ensure sustainable consumption and
production patterns and most of all, goal 13-Take urgent action to combat climate change and its
impacts) at local and specific levels like in Nasarawa State, it has become imperative to assess the
effect of climatic variability on such important cereal as rice for informed planning towards sustainable
production.
Nasarawa State is located in the basement complex of Nigeria’s central between longitudes 6°45’ 03”
and 9°45’03” of the Greenwich, and latitude 7°45' 00' 'and 9°35' 00 ' of the Equator. The state has an
area of approximately 26,385.04 square kilometers, and stands at an altitude of 400 meters above
sea level. It shares geographic boundaries with Kaduna state in the north, Federal Capital Territory
(FCT) in western part, Kogi and Benue, in the south, and Taraba and plateau to the east. The climate
of Nasarawa State is typical of a tropical sub-humid climate having two distinctive seasons. The rainy
season sets in from about the beginning of May and last until October. The dry season is experienced
between November and April. The annual rainfall amount ranges between 1100 mm to roughly 2000
mm. About 90% of the rain in the State falls from May to September, with the highest amounts being
recorded in the months of July and August. High temperatures are generally recorded in the State
during the day time, particularly between the months of March and April. The mean monthly
temperatures in the State ranges between 20°C and 34°C [22].
Daily records of maximum and minimum temperature for a period of 21 years (1997 - 2017) were
obtained for Nasarawa State and specific locations (Local Government Area Headquarters) from the
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) and analysed for information. The 21 years’ period was
used because the State had only been that old and to also match with the available rice production
data which was obtained from the Nasarawa Agricultural Development Programme (NADP), Lafia,
Nasarawa State.
The acquired data was analysed using Microsoft Excel, Statistical Package for Social Sciences
(SPSS, version 23) and ArcGIS 2.2. Descriptive (coefficient of variation), inferential (Linear multiple
regression) and spatial (interpolation) data analysis techniques were used to analyse the time series
data of temperature and rice production so as to determine the effect of temperature variability on rice
production as well as identify areas of high and low rice crop vulnerability to fluctuations in
139
temperature. The daily maximum and minimum temperature data were converted to monthly
averages using the AVERAGE-function in Microsoft Excel.
Coefficient of variation (CV) was used to determine both the inter annual variability of the maximum
and minimum temperature. Although, there are many measures of variability, the two most widely
used are the relative variability (that is the CV) and the standard deviation. Measurement of CV is the
most efficient for this type of study [23] and has been widely used by other studies. Therefore, it was
adopted and used in this study. It is a measure of dispersion given by:
Co-efficient of variation = (Standard deviation / mean) * 100.
Fig. 1. Administrative map of Nasarawa State

Source: Geography Department, Nasarawa State University, Keffi
The mean and the standard deviations of the climatic variables were first calculated, and then the co-
efficient of variation determined as a percentage of the mean. The coefficient of variation (CV) is
mathematically expressed as:
(1)
Where ∂ is the standard deviation, defined by:
(2)
Where x is the value of a given variable for a given period, χ is the mean of the variable and N is
number of the sample taken of the variable.
Multiple Linear Regression function of SPSS (version 23) was used to establish the relationship
between temperature variability and rice production in the study area. The variance analysis (ANOVA)
140
section was used to evaluate the significance of the regression model and standardized beta values
and P-values used to evaluate the contribution of each independent variable. Variables with
probabilities of 0.05 or less (P≤.05) were considered important, while those with higher probabilities
(P≥.05) were regarded as insignificant. Confidence in multiple regression data for the study was
2
determined by the adjusted co-efficient of determinant (AR ).
This analysis method operates on assumption that the relationship between one variable, dependent
variable y and a host of all other variables x, (1, 2, 3, 4…n) called the independent variables, may be
expressed by an equation of the form:
(3)
Where
y = dependent variable (Crop production)

bo = constant term
b1, 2 = regression coefficient (each b represents the amount of change in Y (crop
production) for one unit of change in the corresponding x-value when the other x
values are held constant).
x1, 2..xn = the independent variables (the climatic variables).
∑ = error term that can enter the model
Prior to conducting the linear multiple regression, preliminary analyses were conducted to ensure
there has been no violation of the assumptions underpinning regression analyses. The residual and
scatter plots indicated that apart from the assumptions of normality, all other assumptions (linearity,
homoscedasticity and multicollinearity) were all satisfied. The collinearity statistics (Tolerance and
Variance Inflation Factor-VIF) were all within the accepted limits. The Inverse Distribution Function
(IDF) method of Data transformation given by Templeton [24] was used to normalize the rice
production data.
Coefficient of variation (CV) in maximum temperature was also calculated for each point location of
the 13 LGA headquarters in the study area. The calculated CV was imported into ArcGIS 2.2 desktop
environment as XY data and linked with the study area’s political boundary (polygon shapefile).
Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation technique was then performed to show spatial
variability of maximum temperature. The degrees of rice vulnerability to the fluctuations of maximum
temperature were categorized as: Highly vulnerable areas, vulnerable areas and marginally
vulnerable areas. This categorization was based the spatial distribution of CV, the first three range of
values were categorized as areas of relatively low vulnerability, the next three were for marginal
vulnerability and the last three for high vulnerability.
Furthermore, LGAs that boosts the greatest opportunity for rice production and those that poses
greatest threat with respect to variability of maximum temperature in the 21 years’ period were
identified. This was accomplished by subjecting the final vulnerability map to zonal analysis using the
‘Tabulate Area’ tool located in the ArcGIS Spatial Analyst toolbox. This operation was not performed
for minimum temperature because; it was found to have positive significant relationship with rice
production over the investigated period. Hence, its activities in the study area pose no threat to
sustainable rice production.
3.1 Effect of Maximum and Minimum Temperature on Rice Production (1997-2017)
Table 1 shows that a combination of the variations in average monthly maximum and minimum
temperatures accounted for 68.7% (R2 = 0.687) of the changes in Nasarawa State’s rice production
during the study period. Furthermore, average maximum temperature made the strongest contribution
to explaining the variations in the State’s rice production with a significant (p-value = 0.02) negative
effect size of -3.145 and a coefficient value of -191324.30 which implies that every single unit increase
141
that occurred in average maximum temperature during the period, resulted in annual rice production
decline of 191,324.30 metric tons and vice-versa. Average monthly minimum temperature also had a
significant (p-value = 0.002) effect on rice production in the study area but with a positive effect size of
1.683 and a coefficient value of 156,736.52. Hence every unit increase in this variable had contributed
to an annual rice production increase of 156,736.52 metric tons.
Table 1. Result of regression analysis for rice production and average monthly maximum and
minimum temperature
Model Unstandardized Standardized T Sig.

coefficients coefficient
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 4171905.851 2540390.354 - 1.642 0.124
Average maximum -191324.298 72515.349 -3.145 -2.638 0.02*
temperature
Average minimum 156736.523 40691.414 1.683 3.852 0.002**
temperature
R2 = 0.687
**Coefficient is significant at 1% confidence level; * Coefficient is significant at 5% confidence level
Source: Data analysis 2018
According to Prakash [25], increases in maximum temperature during the ripening phase of rice
growth contribute to an increase in rice production up to a critical threshold of 29.9°C. When
maximum temperature goes beyond this threshold, rice yield declines. In this study, the average
maximum temperature for the period of 1997 to 2017 is was 31.94°C. Thus, this explains the
observed decline in rice productions in the study area given that the production process must have
been negatively affected by the fluctuations in the daily maximum temperature with a generally
increasing pattern.
Additionally, Basak [16] studied the impact of climate variability and change on rice production in
Bangladesh using the simulation model. The study showed a drastic reduction in crop yield from 13.5
to 2.6 percent and from 28.7 to 0.11 percent when the maximum temperature was increased by 2°C
and 4°C. On effect size, the finding of this study agrees with Sarker et al. [26] who found that the
effects of maximum temperature and minimum temperature are more pronounced as compared to
rainfall. Also, Mahmood et al. [27]; Peng et al. [28] and Saseendran et al. [29] all stated that an
increase in maximum temperature and affects rice production.
3.2 Spatial Vulnerability of Rice Production to Maximum Temperature Variability (1997

– 2017)
Figs. 2 and 3 show the spatial variations in average maximum temperature and the locations where
rice production in the study area is most and least vulnerable to maximum temperature variability. It
was revealed that variability in average maximum temperature which ranged from 9.31% to 11.57%
was mostly severe in the northern parts of Nasarawa State compared to the southern parts indicating
areas of high vulnerability for rice production. Moving down south, the variability in maximum
temperature was found to be less severe indicating merely vulnerable areas. Also, the fluctuations of
maximum temperature created marginally vulnerable condition for rice production only in small areas
of the north-western and southwestern parts of Toto and Awe LGAs respectively. This finding is in
agreement with Souleymane et al. [30] who spatially analyzed annual and monthly temperature
variability in Senegal and found that the highest annual variability occurs in the north with greater
negative effect on crops production, and the values decrease from northwest to southeast.
Table 2 shows the statistical summary of the rice production vulnerability map. It reveals that a total
area of 167108.92 hectares in Nasarawa State was characterized by relatively minimal degree of
variability in maximum temperature during the study period and was designated areas of marginal
vulnerability for rice production in Nasarawa State. Most (64.67%) of the marginally vulnerable areas
are situated in Toto LGA and Awe LGA (39.59%) followed by a 3.41% in Keana LGA.
142
Fig. 2. Spatial variation of average maximum temperature in Nasarawa State (1997 – 2017)
Source: Spatial analysis of coefficient of variation derived from monthly temperature data
Table 2. Statistical summary of spatial vulnerability of rice production in Nasarawa State
LGA Spatial vulnerability class: Area (percent %)

Marginally vulnerable Vulnerable Highly vulnerable
Area (ha) % Area (ha) % Area (ha) %
TOTO 108071.03 64.67 160373.05 13.34 10400.97 0.82
NASARAWA 0.00 0.00 256507.72 21.34 323222.51 25.59
DOMA 0.00 0.00 245116.19 20.39 643.87 0.05
KEANA 5695.77 3.41 100889.41 8.39 0.00 0.00
OBI 0.00 0.00 96134.68 8.00 0.00 0.00
AWE 53342.12 31.92 201630.23 16.78 0.00 0.00
KARU 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 267503.03 21.18
KEFFI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14759.47 1.17
KOKONA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 183899.05 14.56
LAFIA 0.00 0.00 140660.73 11.70 135212.61 10.71
WAMBA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 119908.32 9.49
AKWANGA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 84445.97 6.69
NASARAWA-EGGON 0.00 0.00 544.81 0.05 122880.03 9.73
Total 167108.92 100 1201856.81 100 1262875.83 100
Source: Spatial (Zonal) analysis of the vulnerability map (2018)
143
Fig. 3. Spatial vulnerability of rice production to variability in the average maximum tempera
ture of Nasarawa State (1997 – 2017)
Source: Spatial analysis of coefficient of variation derived from monthly temperature data
Furthermore, 1201856.81 hectares of the study area accounted for the places where rice production
is considered vulnerable to climate variability due to significant degree of variations in monthly
average temperature. Out of this, 21.34% was found to be situated in Nasarawa LGA, followed by
20.39% in Doma, 16.78% in Awe, 13.34% in Toto and 11.70% in Lafia LGA. Approximately 8% of
Keana and Obi LGAs were characterized by vulnerable maximum temperature condition for rice
farming during the investigated period of 21 years.
Highly vulnerable conditions for rice farming due to fluctuations of monthly average maximum
temperature characterized as high as 1262875.83 hectares of Nasarawa State between 1997 and
2017. Areas characterized by this condition were most found in Nasarawa LGA with a 25.59% share,
followed by Karu (21.18%) and Kokona (14.46%) LGAs. Other locations where rice farming is
expected to be highly vulnerable to fluctuation of maximum temperature include: Lafia (10.71%),
Nasarawa-Eggon (9.73%), Wamba (9.49%), Akwanga (6.69%), Keffi (1.17%), Toto (0.82%) and
Doma (0.05%).
144
4. CONCLUSION
Crop-climate effect and vulnerability analysis provides an insight on how climate variability affects
crops output and also helps to identify which climate parameter(s) creates vulnerable condition for
crops production per time and the spatial locations that where the conditions are most and least felt.
Variation in monthly temperature has continued to affect rice production in Nasarawa State, although
rice production in the State is being affected by the fluctuations of both minimum and maximum
monthly temperature, the later poses grave concern for sustainability of rice production. This is
because rice production was found to be negatively and significantly related to variations in monthly
maximum temperature. Every single unit increase that occurred in maximum temperature, caused a
decline in the State’s annual rice production.
This negative impact of maximum temperature fluctuations on rice production indicates that rice
production in Nasarawa State is vulnerable to climate variability with increasing maximum
temperature. Places where rice production is mostly vulnerable to maximum temperature fluctuations
in the study area include: Nasarawa, Karu, Kokona, Lafia, Nasarawa-Eggon, Wamba, Akwanga and
Keffi LGAs, whereas places of least vulnerability are mostly found in Toto, Awe and Keana. Hence,
the south senatorial district has more favourable locations for rice production in comparison to the
North and West districts.
Agricultural Extension Officers (AEOs) should be deployed, particularly to the North Senatorial District
and the North-Central parts of the West Senatorial District to guide farmers through routine visits and
sensitization programmes on variability in maximum temperature; use of farm inputs and monitoring of
crop-climate (temperature) relationship in other to achieve improved rice production. Also,
government and non-governmental institutions as well as individuals planning to establish rice farm
project(s) in the study area should consider doing so in the South Senatorial District in order to
escape the adverse effect of temperature variability.
COMPETING INTERESTS
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Oladeinde Stephen Olufemi

National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA-COPINE), Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile Ife, Osun
State, Nigeria.
He presently works as a Scientific Officer with the Advanced Space Technology Applications Laboratory (South West) under
the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) and also a PhD student of Environmental Resource
Management at the Department of Geography, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nigeria. Professionally, he has worked with
several commercial banks in Nigerian banking industry and has managed a couple of agricultural projects. He has great interest
in academic research, hence he has authored and co-authored several papers published in both local and international
journals. His research focuses mainly on the impact of climate change/variability on agricultural productivity, precision farming
and flood risk management. He is currently researching the vulnerability of cereal crops to climate variability in Nasarawa State,
Nigeria.
Magaji I. Joshua
Department of Geography, Faculty of Environmental Science, Nasarawa State University, Nasarawa State, Keffi, Nigeria.
He is a senior lecturer at the Department of Geography, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nigeria. He is a doctor of
Climatology/Hydrology and his research focuses specifically on natural and human factors of climate change, its impact on
natural processes in relation to man. He has authored and co-authored several papers published in the top journals of his field
as well as several conference publications. He is currently the director of the Centre for Environmental Studies in Nasarawa
State University, Nigeria.
147
Ekpo Abraham Salamatu

Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Environmental Science, Nasarawa State University, Nasarawa State,
Keffi, Nigeria.
She is a lecturer at the Department of Environmental Management, Nasarawa State University, Nigeria. She has authored and
co-authored several research papers in both local and international journals of her field and also in conference publications. Her
research interest centres on biodiversity conservation, rural resource development and gender participation in environmental
resource management. Recently her work is focussed on understanding the nexus between commercial charcoal production
and socioeconomic variables and how this impacts tree biodiversity.
_________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 10(8): 91-100, 2020.
Reviewers’ Information
(1) Mutaz Mohamed Ahmed Elshiekh, Ahfad University for Women, Sudan.
(2) Carolina E. Cagnasso, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
148
London Tarakeswar
Registered offices
India: Guest House Road, Street no - 1/6, Hooghly, West Bengal, PIN-712410, India, Corp. Firm
Registration Number: L77527, Tele: +91 8617752708, Email: director@bookpi.org,
(Headquarters)
UK: Third Floor, 207 Regent Street, London, W1B 3HH, UK
Fax: +44 20-3031-1429 Email: director@bookpi.org,
(Branch office)

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Modern Advances in Geography,

Environment and Earth Sciences

India . United Kingdom

Dr. Kwong Fai Andrew Lo

FIRST EDITION 2021

ISBN 978-93-90768-04-2 (Print)

Characterisation of Air Pollution on Trinidad’s North-

1.1 Literature Review

Year SO2 (ppb) NO2 (ppb) CO (ppm) O3 (ppb) PM10 (ug/m3)

AQI (Authority) Factors Approach

signatures were measured against manufacturer’s instrument library (CALCMET

Station 1 (San Fernando, located at -61.4409, 10.2891) – mixed background

Station N PM1 / PM2.5 / PM10 / Number Exceedances (EMA/WHO)

Annual Pollutant TT EMA AAQS MIXED BACK’D INDUSTRIAL URBAN RURAL

3.2 Trace Metals

Fig. 4. Chromium: Concentration profiles in three PM fractions (profile comparison - urban

Fig. 6. Manganese: Concentration profiles in three PM fractions (profile comparison - urban

3.3 Air Pollution Index

Factors (81.8%) Variables Loadings

Index variables (Pollutants) API-11 Weights API-6 Weights

4. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH

DOI: ISSN 1017-1606

Dr. Himawatee Baboolal

Dr. Derrick Balladin

Critical Study on a Reclaimed Wastewater Allocation

Keywords: Optimization; agriculture; water allocation; reclaimed wastewater; irrigation.

Fotakis and Sidiropoulos [32] developed a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to simultaneously

3. THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL

3.1 Objective Function

, , =∑ ( , , + , , ) x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (2)

, , = ∑ [( , , )− , , − , , ] c=1, …., C, x=1, …., X and i =

∑ , , =∑ , , x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (9)

By applying RW-farm-crop connectivity coefficient (M , , ) and RW-crop coefficient (CRw , ) on both

∑ , , , , , =∑ , , , , , x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (10)

= = , × 1+ × c=1, …., C (11)

3) Consumed RW from source i by farm x irrigating crop c:

∑ , , = , x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (12)

By applying RW-farm-crop connectivity coefficient (M , , ) and RW-crop coefficient (CRw , ) on both

∑ , , , , , = , x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (13)

, = / x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (14)

3.3.2 Irrigated farmlands constraints

∑ , , ≤ x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (15)

By applying RW-crop coefficient (CRw , ) in equation (15), it yields to:

∑ , , , ≤ x=1, …., X and i = 1, …., I (16)

∑ , , ≤ , i = 1, …., I and c= 1, …., C (18)

3.3.3 Connectivity of RW type i to farm x and crop c constraint

4. BAGHDAD AS A CASE STUDY

5. DATA FOR OPTIMIZATION MODEL

6. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

2 65% Irrigation Efficiency

0.5 85% Irrigation Efficiency

Fig. 5. Computed net benefit ($) adopting 65% irrigation efficiency

Fig. 6. Computed net benefit ($) adopting 70% irrigation efficiency

Fig. 7. Computed net benefit ($) adopting 75% irrigation efficiency

Fig. 8. Computed net benefit ($) adopting 80% irrigation efficiency

Fig. 9. Computed net benefit ($) adopting 85% irrigation efficiency

Authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Study on Application of an Optimization Model for