1 NEWS Verian Poll

15 – 19 June 2024
Attention: Television New Zealand

Release date: 24 June 2024

Contents
Contents .......................................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodology summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

Summary of results .......................................................................................................................................... 3

Key political events .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Question order and wording ............................................................................................................................ 5

Party vote ........................................................................................................................................................ 6

Preferred Prime Minister ................................................................................................................................. 8

Parliamentary seat entitlement ..................................................................................................................... 10

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement ................................................................................ 10

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 Methodology summary
CLIENT: Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Monday 24 June 2024.

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 15 to Wednesday 19 June 2024.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).
DAY:

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible New Zealand voters.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone and online. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).

SAMPLE SELECTION: Mobile: Random dialling of New Zealand mobile telephones using probability
sampling. Interviewers ask to speak to the main user of the phone who is aged 18
years or over. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting
eligibility is determined at the first question.
Online: Interviews are collected by online panels, with quotas (or interviewing
targets) set to ensure the final sample is nationally representative. All respondents
are aged 18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for
online research.

SAMPLE SIZE: n = 1,002 eligible voters, including n=502 polled via mobile phone and n=500
polled online, using online panels.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95%
confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher
and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around
10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-
points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level.
These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or

gender) will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider
sampling error.

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender, region, ethnic identification and education level.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been
rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are
reported to 1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded
up or down to whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1
decimal place. All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are
statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997.

Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party
support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “1 NEWS Verian Poll”.

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Summary of results
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National Party 38% Up 2%-points from 20-24 April 2024
Labour Party 29% Down 1%-point
Green Party 13% Down 1%-point
ACT Party 7% Steady
New Zealand First 6% Up 2%-points
Te Pāti Māori 3% Down 1%-point
The Opportunities Party 2% Up 1%-point
New Nation Party 1% Up 1%-point

UNDECIDED VOTERS
Party Vote – Don’t know or refused 11% Up 3%-points from 20-24 April 2024

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Christopher Luxon 23% Steady from 20-24 April 2024

Chris Hipkins 18% Up 2%-points

Chlöe Swarbrick 6% Steady

Winston Peters 4% Steady

David Seymour 4% Down 1%-point

Jacinda Ardern 1% Steady

Kieran McAnulty 1% Up 1%-point

Nicola Willis 1% Up 1%-point

The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole
number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report.

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Key political events
20th April – 14th June 2024

• On 7 May, Green MP Julie Anne Genter was referred to the Privileges Committee for
her threatening behaviour in the house towards National MP Matt Doocey
• On 21 May, National MP David McLeod stood down after failing to declare $178,000
in donations.
• On 22 May, the First Home Grants scheme was confirmed to be scrapped by the
Government as part of its cost cutting measures.
• The Government announced its 2024 Budget on May 30. National kept its promise
of delivering tax cuts however the pledge to fund 13 treatments for cancer was not
kept.
• On May 30, Te Pati Māori protested the Government’s policies which negatively
impacted Māori such as the disestablishment of the Māori Health Authority.
• On June 6 Workplace Relations Minister Brooke Van Velden announced an update
of the Holidays Act to simplify the process for calculating leave but the changes
could lead to part-time workers receiving less sick-leave.
• Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with PM Chritopher Luxon and discussed New
Zealand’s potential joining of AUKUS pillar II and cyber attacks made by China.

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Question order and wording

Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

Likelihood to vote
“If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote?”

NOTE: Those claiming they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote have been included in the party
support analysis.

Introduction
“Under MMP you get two votes.

One is for a political party and is called a party vote.

The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote.”

Party vote
“Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party.

Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who indicated the party they would be most likely to vote for have been included in the party
support analysis, provided they said they would be ‘quite likely’ or ‘very likely’ to vote.

Preferred Prime Minister

“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”

IF NO ONE

“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

Economic outlook
“And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a
worse state?”

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Party vote
“Which political party would you vote for?”

IF DON’T KNOW “Which one would you be most likely to vote for?”

16-19 Sep 23-26 Sep 30 Sep – 3 7 – 10 Oct 10-14 Feb 20-24 Apr 15-19 Jun
2023 2023 Oct 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Don’t know 8% 7% 7% 5% 5% 6% 7%

Refused 4% 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 4%

TOTAL 12% 11% 10% 9% 7% 8% 11%

Base (n=) 1,001 1,002 1,000 1,001 1,002 1,000 1,002

16-19 Sep 23-26 Sep 30 Sep – 3 7-10 Oct 10-14 Feb 20-24 Apr 15-19 Jun
2023 2023 Oct 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024

National Party 37% 36% 36% 37% 38% 36% 38%

Labour Party 27% 26% 26% 28% 28% 30% 29%
Green Party 12% 13% 13% 14% 12% 14% 13%
ACT Party 12% 12% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7%
New Zealand First 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4.2% 6%
Te Pāti Māori 2.9% 1.9% 2.2% 1.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3%
The Opportunities
1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.9% 1.2% 1.5%
Party (TOP)
New Nation Party 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% - - 0.4% 0.6%
Animal Justice Party 0.3% 0.3% - - 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
Freedoms New
0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Zealand nett
− NZ Outdoors
0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% - 0.2%
Party
− Vision New
0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Zealand
− Freedoms
0.4% - 0.6% 0.4% - 0.3% 0.1%
New Zealand
New Zealand Loyal 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
New Conservative 0.1% 0.6% - - 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

NewZeal 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%

Women's Rights Party - 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% - 0.1%
Aotearoa Legalise
0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% -
Cannabis Party
DemocracyNZ 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% -
Other - - - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 807 813 819 825 834 836 807
Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Verian Poll
60 Party Vote

50

40
National

30
Labour

20

Green
10
ACT
NZ First
Māori
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

National Labour ACT Green Māori NZ First

2
Preferred Prime Minister
“Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime
Minister?” IF NO ONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

16-19 23-26 30 Sep 7-10 10-14 20-24 15-19

Sep Sep – 3 Oct Oct Feb Apr Jun
2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Christopher Luxon 23% 23% 26% 25% 25% 23% 23%
Chris Hipkins 23% 23% 25% 25% 15% 16% 18%
Chlöe Swarbrick 2% 1% 2% 2% 4% 6% 6%
Winston Peters 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 4% 4%
David Seymour 5% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4%
Jacinda Ardern 1% 1% 0.4% 0.5% 2% 0.7% 1%
Kieran McAnulty - - - - 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Nicola Willis 2% 0.8% 1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
Rawiri Waititi 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Erica Stanford - 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Marama Davidson 0.5% 2% 0.8% 2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Mark Mitchell - - 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Carmel Sepuloni 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Judith Collins 0.2% - - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Shane Jones - - - - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Bill English - - - - - - 0.2%
Raf Manji 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% - 0.2%
Chris Bishop - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Phil Twyford - - - - - - 0.1%
Helen Clark - - 0.2% - 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Matt King - - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% - 0.1%
Shane Reti 0.1% - 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
James Shaw 1% 1% 2% 2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
John Key 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% - 0.3% 0.1%
Grant Robertson 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Other 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Don't know 29% 28% 26% 25% 32% 34% 32%
None 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Refused 1% 2% 1% 2% 0.8% 1% 1%
TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%*
Base (n=) 1,001 1,002 1,000 1,001 1,002 1,000 1,002
Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

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 1 NEWS Verian Poll
Preferred Prime Minister
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

John Key Winston Peters David Shearer David Cunliffe Andrew Little
Jacinda Ardern Bill English Simon Bridges Judith Collins David Seymour
Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins Chlöe Swarbrick
Parliamentary seat entitlement
The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement based on the party vote results (to one decimal
place) from this poll. The calculation assumes that Te Pāti Māori hold their six electorate seats.

Number of seats

National Party 47

Labour Party 36

Green Party 16

ACT Party 9

New Zealand First 8

Te Pāti Māori 6

TOTAL 122

Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement

The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for
each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament.

It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least
one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral
Commission.

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