“GUESTTIMATE”

A Mathematical Model for Predicting Pig Weight from Body Measurements

BSED 3-MATH

Labordo, Rhona L.

Laspiñas, Ramela Joy L.

Lago, Jenefer A.

I. INTRODUCTION

Weighing pigs is an important practice in animal husbandry to monitor their growth,

health, and determine appropriate feeding strategies. Estimating a pig's weight by measuring
its neck circumference, waist circumference and body height can provide a non-invasive and
practical method for farmers and veterinarians.

Many pig farmers face challenges in accurately estimating the weight of their pigs
without access to weighing scales. In order to provide a cost-effective and accessible method
for estimating pig weight in situations where weighing scales are not available or feasible to
use regularly, the investigators want to find the model of predicting the weight of a pig using
neck circumference, waist circumference and body height. This will assist farmers in making
informed decisions regarding feeding regimes, healthcare interventions, and sale transactions.

II. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

This mathematical modeling aims to device a model that would be used to predict the
weight of a weaner pig through its neck circumference, waist circumference and body height.
Specifically, it sought to answer the following question:

1. Is there a linear relationship between the weight of a weaner pig and its neck
circumference, waist circumference, and body height?
2. What model can be used to predict the weight of a weaner pig given the neck
circumference, waist circumference and body height (in cm)?
 III. DATA GATHERING and MODEL/S FORMULATED

Data was collected at a slaughterhouse in Lambunao, Iloilo to measure various body

parts of pigs. Nineteen weaner pigs were selected, and their neck circumference, waist
circumference, body height (in centimeters), and weight (in kilogram) were carefully
measured using tape measure and digital weighing scale.

The collected data were encoded in Microsoft Excel for organization and further
analysis. Subsequently, the data was analyzed utilizing the statistical software SPSS and
linear regression was used as the analytical method to establish mathematical model that
elucidate the connection between pig’s body measurements and their corresponding weights.

The data collection process involved obtaining consent from the slaughterhouse staff
or personnel responsible for the facility’s management. In addition approval was sought from
the pig owners to ensure privacy and confidentiality. It was essential to reassure all involved
parties that the pigs would be measured and weighed with care throughout the process to
prioritize their well-being and comfort.
MODEL

The model for the weight of a weaner pig is given by the equation,

Predicted Weight= -118.328 + (1.129) (NC) + (.542) (WC) + (.848) (BH), NC, WC
and BH is in cm.

where,

NC is the neck circumference in cm

WC is the waist circumference in cm

BH is the body height in cm

IV. INTERPRETING THE MODEL/S

ANOVAa

Sum of Mean
Model df F Sig.
Squares Square

1 Regression 9852.775 3 3284.258 37.657 .000b

Residual 1221.002 14 87.214

Total 11073.778 17
a. Dependent Variable: WEIGHT
b. Predictors: (Constant), BODY HEIGHT, NECK CIRCUMFERENCE, WAIST
CIRCUMFERENCE

Sum of squares and mean squares for the regression and residual components of the
model
● The sum of squares is a measure of the total variance in the data.
● The mean squares is the sum of squares divided by the degrees of freedom
(a measure of the number of independent pieces of information in the data).

F statistic and significance level (p-value): F(3,14) = 37.657, p = .000

● These values indicate whether we can reject the null hypothesis, which is
that there is no significant relationship between the weight of a pig and its neck
circumference, waist circumference, and body height.
● In this case, the p-value of .000b suggests that we can reject the null hypothesis.
This means that there is a linear relationship between the weight of a pig and its
neck circumference, waist circumference, and body height.
 Coefficientsa

Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients
Model t Sig.
B Std. Beta
Error

1 (Constant) -118.328 26.239 -4.510 .000

NECK 1.129 .452 .341 2.499 .025

CIRCUMFERENCE

WAIST .542 .423 .277 1.282 .221

CIRCUMFERENCE

BODY HEIGHT .848 .463 .396 1.834 .088

a. Dependent Variable: WEIGHT

Unstandardized Coefficients and Standardized Coefficients: These coefficients show

the relationship between the pig's weight and the other measurements.
● A positive coefficient means that as the measurement value increases, the
predicted weight also tends to increase.
● A negative coefficient means that as the measurement value increases, the
predicted weight tends to decrease.
● The value further from zero indicates a stronger relationship between the
measurement and the weight.

Body Height: This has a positive coefficient of 0.848, which means there is a positive
correlation between body height and weight.
Neck Circumference: This has a positive coefficient of 1.129, which means there is a
positive correlation between neck circumference and weight.
Waist Circumference: This has a positive coefficient of 0.542, which means there is a
positive correlation between waist circumference and weight.

Sig.: This is the significance level, or p-value. A p-value less than 0.05 indicates a
statistically significant relationship.
● Neck circumference (0.025) and body height (0.088) both have a p-value less
than 0.05, which means there is a linear relationship between these
measurements and weight.
● Waist circumference (0.221) has a p-value greater than 0.05, so the evidence for
a relationship is weaker.
 Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Model R R Square
Square Estimate

1 .943a .890 .866 9.339

a. Predictors: (Constant), BODY HEIGHT, NECK CIRCUMFERENCE, WAIST

CIRCUMFERENCE

In fact, 89% (R²=.890) of the variance in the weight of a pig is accounted for by its neck
circumference, waist circumference and body height.

R - This is the correlation coefficient, which is a measure of how well the model's
predicted values correspond to the actual pig weights. A value of 1 indicates a perfect
positive correlation, 0 indicates no correlation, and -1 indicates a perfect negative
correlation. In this case, 0.943 suggests a strong positive correlation between the
measurements and weight.

R Square (R²) - This is the squared value of the correlation coefficient (R) and represents
the proportion of variance in the dependent variable (weight) explained
by the independent variables (measurements). A value of 0.890 here
means that 89% of the variance in pig weight is explained by the model.

Adjusted R Square - This is a modified version of R-squared that accounts for the number
of predictor variables in the model. It can be used to compare
models with different numbers of predictors.

Std. Error of the Estimate - This is a measure of how much the actual pig weights deviate
from the model's predicted weights. Lower values indicate a
better fit.

V. VERIFYING THE MODEL/S

The model for the weight of a weaner pig is given by the equation,

Predicted Weight= -118.328 + (1.129) (NC) + (.542) (WC) + (.848) (BH), NC,
WC and BH is in cm.
FOR EXISTING DATA

NECK CIRCUMFERENCE: 77 cm WAIST CIRCUMFERENCE: 115 cm

BODY HEIGHT: 64 cm WEIGHT: 90 kg

Predicted Weight= -118.328 + (1.129) (77) + (.542) (115) + (.848) (64)

= -118.328 + 86.933 + 62.33 + 54.272
= 85.207 kg
FOR EXTREME DATA

NECK CIRCUMFERENCE: 81 cm WAIST CIRCUMFERENCE: 115cm

BODY HEIGHT: 115 cm WEIGHT: 90 kg

Predicted Weight= -118.328 + (1.129) (81) + (.542) (115) + (.848) (65)

= -118.328 + 91.449 + 62.33 + 55.12
= 90.571 kg
FOR EXTREME DATA

NECK CIRCUMFERENCE: 65 cm WAIST CIRCUMFERENCE: 94 cm

BODY HEIGHT: 69 cm WEIGHT: 68 kg

Predicted Weight= -118.328 + (1.129) (65) + (.542) (94) + (.848) (69)

= -118.328 + 73.385 + 50.948 + 58.512
= 64.517 kg

VI. EXTENSIONS/EVALUATION
1. Consider modeling the weight of a pig through its body measurements using
tape measure.
2. Explore the variation in weight prediction models for different pig breeds.