Step 1A: Enter monthly shipment and return data as shown in range B4:K24 shown below.

Step 1B. Copy/paste the resulting encoding shown in columns O and Q into Box 1 of the Weibull Analysis Tool (htt

See "Warranty Step 2" tab to calculate expected monthly warranty returns.

Returns

Shipments Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12

Mar-12 436 1 1 2 2 3 3 3
Apr-12 831 1 2 3 4 5 6
May-12 390 0 1 2 2 2
Jun-12 950 1 2 3 4
Jul-12 725 1 2 3
Aug-12 433 1 1
Sep-12 316 0
Oct-12 1,027
Nov-12 1,216
Dec-12 1,000
Jan-13 1,000
Feb-13 1,000
Mar-13 1,000
Apr-13 1,000
May-13 1,000
Jun-13 1,000
Jul-13 1,000
Aug-13 1,000
Sep-13 1,000
Oct-13 1,000
Nov-13 1,000
Total 1 2 4 7 12 16 19
 low.
he Weibull Analysis Tool (http://reliabilityanalyticstoolkit.appspot.com/weibull_analysis) to calculate the Weibull parameter

Experience Time
Month Narrative Description
Nov-12 Dec-12 (Months)
4 4 9 1 7 Failures on units of age 1 month
8 8 8 2 12 Failures on units of age 2 months
2 3 7 3 16 Failures on units of age 3 months
5 6 6 4 18 Failures on units of age 4 months
4 5 5 5 20 Failures on units of age 5 months
2 2 4 6 17 Failures on units of age 6 months
1 1 3 7 14 Failures on units of age 7 months
1 2 2 8 12 Failures on units of age 8 months
1 1 9 4 Failures on units of age 9 months

27 32
ulate the Weibull parameters associated the data set.

Encoding to copy/paste into Encoding to copy/paste into

Narrative Description
Input Box 1 Input Box 1
1fg7 413 Suspensions after 9 months 9 s g 413
2 f g 12 794 Suspensions after 8 months 8 s g 794
3 f g 16 378 Suspensions after 7 months 7 s g 378
4 f g 18 929 Suspensions after 6 months 6 s g 929
5 f g 20 710 Suspensions after 5 months 5 s g 710
6 f g 17 427 Suspensions after 4 months 4 s g 427
7 f g 14 314 Suspensions after 3 months 3 s g 314
8 f g 12 1024 Suspensions after 2 months 2 s g 1024
9fg4 1215 Suspensions after 1 months 1 s g 1215
Step 2A. Enter the Weibull parameters calculated from the "Warranty Step 1" tab into the Conditional Weibull D
other inputs as shown in the picture below.
Step 2B. Copy/Paste resulting Excel F(t) table output into Range L27:Y37 below, then sort this table on Current Ag
Step 2C. Enter the following formula into cell M4 and drag-fill to lower right corner: =($B4-SUM($C4:$K4))*(N28-
Step 2D. Delete any non-relevant calculations for months where the items have come off warranty or have not y

This example assumes we are currently in Dec 2012 and want to forecast monthly warranty returns for the year 2
2012. The table "steps down" because of shipments coming off their 12 month warranty. The tan shaded cells re

Note: The Excel table output by the Conditional Weibull Distribution Survival Table tool represents the cumulativ
of failures expected in Feb-13 is, for items of age 9 months shown in row 28, 3.2494% - 1.5405% = 1.7088%. As o
month of Feb-13, the expected returns are 0.017088 * 313 = 7 Returns, as calculated in cell N4 below.

Returns
Shipments Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12
Mar-12 436 1 1 2 2 3 3 3
Apr-12 831 1 2 3 4 5 6
May-12 390 0 1 2 2 2
Jun-12 950 1 2 3 4
Jul-12 725 1 2 3
Aug-12 433 1 1
Sep-12 316 0
Oct-12 1,027
Nov-12 1,216
Dec-12 1,000
Jan-13 1,000
Feb-13 1,000
Mar-13 1,000
Apr-13 1,000
May-13 1,000
Jun-13 1,000
Jul-13 1,000
Aug-13 1,000
Sep-13 1,000
Oct-13 1,000
Nov-13 1,000
Total 1 2 4 7 12 16 19
o the Conditional Weibull Distribution Survival Table tool (http://reliabilityanalyticstoolkit.appspot.com/conditional_weibul

ort this table on Current Age, from Largest to Smallest.

($B4-SUM($C4:$K4))*(N28-M28)/100.
off warranty or have not yet shipped, resulting in a "stair step" table as shown below.

ranty returns for the year 2013. The item has a 12 month warranty. The green shaded cells represent expected monthly war
nty. The tan shaded cells represent expected returns based on expected 2013 shipments.

ol represents the cumulative probability of failure. The probability of failure for any given month is F(t+1) - F(t). For example
- 1.5405% = 1.7088%. As of Dec-12 there were a total of 23 returns out of 436 items shipped, resulting in 436 - 23 = 413 item
n cell N4 below.

Age Predicted Returns

Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
4 4 9 6 7 8
8 8 8 11 12 13 15
2 3 7 4 5 6 6 7
5 6 6 9 11 12 14 15 17
4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
2 2 4 3 3 4 5 6 6
1 1 3 1 2 2 3 4 4
1 2 2 3 5 6 8 10 12
1 1 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 0 2 3 5 6 8
0 0 2 3 5 6
0 0 2 3 5
0 0 2 3
0 0 2
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27 32 46 58 71 78 77 86

% Failing % Failing % Failing % Failing % Failing % Failing

Current Within 0 Within 1 Within 2 Within 3 Within 4 Within 5
Age Additional Additional Additional Additional Additional Additional
(Months) Months Months Months Months Months Months
9 0.0000 1.5406 3.2494 5.1202 7.1459 9.3178
8 0.0000 1.3495 2.8693 4.5550 6.4006 8.3989
7 0.0000 1.1624 2.4962 3.9984 5.6645 7.4886
6 0.0000 0.9800 2.1310 3.4517 4.9392 6.5889
5 0.0000 0.8027 1.7749 2.9166 4.2268 5.7023
4 0.0000 0.6316 1.4293 2.3952 3.5298 4.8317
3 0.0000 0.4677 1.0964 1.8903 2.8517 3.9810
2 0.0000 0.3128 0.7791 1.4057 2.1972 3.1556
1 0.0000 0.1701 0.4824 0.9478 1.5734 2.3635
0 0.0000 0.0473 0.2173 0.5295 0.9947 1.6200
spot.com/conditional_weibull_distribution_survival_table) and set

present expected monthly warranty returns for items shipped during

th is F(t+1) - F(t). For example, for Mar-12 shipments, the percentage

resulting in 436 - 23 = 413 items in service as of Jan 1, 2013. For the

Predicted Returns
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13

13
7 8
5 5 6
13 15 17 18
14 16 18 20 21
10 11 13 15 16 18
8 10 11 13 15 16
6 8 10 11 13 15
5 6 8 10 11 13
3 5 6 8 10 11
2 3 5 6 8 10
0 2 3 5 6 8
0 2 3 5 6
0 2 3 5
0 2 3
0 2
0
85 88 98 110 110 106

% Failing % Failing % Failing % Failing % Failing % Failing % Failing

Within 6 Within 7 Within 8 Within 9 Within 10 Within 11 Within 12
Additional Additional Additional Additional Additional Additional Additional
Months Months Months Months Months Months Months
11.6264 14.0611 16.6103 19.2620 22.0034 24.8212 27.7020
10.5416 12.8190 15.2208 17.7357 20.3516 23.0559 25.8357
9.4637 11.5815 13.8324 16.2063 18.6919 21.2774 23.9504
8.3952 10.3510 12.4479 14.6768 17.0274 19.4887 22.0489
7.3388 9.1306 11.0706 13.1508 15.3618 17.6935 20.1350
6.2979 7.9241 9.7045 11.6323 13.6993 15.8963 18.2134
5.2768 6.7361 8.3547 10.1268 12.0456 14.1029 16.2897
4.2814 5.5731 7.0279 8.6414 10.4080 12.3207 14.3716
3.3203 4.4442 5.7337 7.1860 8.7968 10.5603 12.4699
2.4098 3.3661 4.4894 5.7783 7.2299 8.8399 10.6027