Chapter 3

Decline Curve Analysis

4. Oil production modelling

86

The production of an oil field tends to pass through a number of stages. This can be described by an ideal-
ized production curve. A version of this curve can be seen in Figure 4.1. After the discovery well, an ap-
praisal well is drilled to determine the development potential of the reservoir. Further development fol-
lows and the first oil production marks the beginning of the build-up phase. Later the field enters a pla-
teau phase, where the full installed extraction capacity is used, before finally arriving at the onset of de-
Production Decline
cline, which ends in abandonment once the economical limit is reached.
For many fields, especially smaller ones, the plateau phase can be very short and resemble more to a
sharp peak, while large fields can stay several decades at the plateau production level. The life time of a
field and the shape of the production curve are often related to the kind of hydrocarbon that is produced.
For instance: condensate flows very easily and can be extracted almost all at once, which results in
high decline rates (I). NGL is a by product of natural gas, hence following the gas production curve inti-
mately (I). Comprehensive studies of the life times and time scale of various stages have been performed
in paper II.

Figure 4.1. A theoretical production curve, describing the various stages of maturity. Source: Robelius (2007).
Source: Robelius (2007)

Fluid flows in porous media can be simulated to high levels of complexity or simplicity, largely de-
pending on details in the flow model. These types of flow processes generally lead to complicated behav-
iour and mathematical models must include statistical analysis, fractal and/or stochastic procedures
Dr. Faisal (Ramiréz,
A. Aljalahmah
2008). Spring 2023 87
Many reservoir simulation models are dependent on various numerical models. One example is the
ECLIPSE oil and gas simulator from Schlumberger Information Solutions (2009), which uses an implicit
87 three dimensional finite difference approach to solve material and energy balance equations in multiphase
fluid system with up to four components in a subsurface reservoir with complex geometry. Traditionally
finite difference methods dominate, but finite elements and streamlined numerical models are also used.
Recently even more advanced computational techniques, such as neural networks and fuzzy logic (Zellou
and Ouenes, 2007) or algebraic multigrids (Stüben et al., 2007), have been utilized to model reservoir
flows.
Combining the reservoir flow models with drilling and development plans along with economic in-
vestment models for the field can result in accurate descriptions of actual production and how it changes
26
1
 Decline Curves

v Decline curves which are plots of flow rate vs. time, are the most common tools for
forecasting production and monitoring well performance in the field.
v These curves are empirical (developed based on a set of test data, and finding the
equation that fits the performance of the data) and used to forecast the future
performance. This method assumes production conditions of present time remains
unchanged in the future. These conditions are:
Ø Operating conditions of the wells remain the same.
Ø The wells must be pump-off (producing at or near full capacity).

Ø Drainage area is constant.

Ø Reservoir conditions are constant (for example reservoir pressure does not reach
bubble-point pressure.

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 88

88

Decline Curves
v There are 3 models (they have little fundamental justifications):
Ø Exponential decline
Ø Harmonic decline.

Ø Hyperbolic decline.

v These 3 models are related through the following relative decline rate equation
using the concept of change in production rate ratio (Arps, 1956):

Ø 𝑖𝑓 𝑑 = 0 ⇒ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙

Ø 𝑖𝑓 0 < 𝑑 < 1 ⇒ ℎ𝑦𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑖𝑐

1 𝑑𝑞
Ø 𝑖𝑓 𝑑 = 1 ⇒ ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑐 = −𝑏𝑞 !
𝑞 𝑑𝑡

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 89

89

2
 Decline Curves
v Rules for using past production rates to forecast future production rates are:

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 90

90

Production Decline Analysis

Decline Curves

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 91

Decline Curves that plot flow rate vs. time are the most common tools for
91 forecasting production and monitoring well performance in the field. These curves
quickly show by graphic means which wells or fields are producing as expected or
under producing. Mainly used because they are easy to set up and to use in the field.
They are not based on any of the physics of the flow of oil and gas through the rock
formations, empirical in nature. The most common forms are daily flow rates vs. the
month. Water and gas rates are commonly plotted along with the oil rate, or GOR

3
 Exponential Decline
v In the study of production decline
Ø it was assumed that the reservoir pressure is always proportional to the oil remaining
(volumetric reservoir under closed container production mechanism where there is no
pressure maintenance such as water injection or support from a water aquifer)

Ø Constant productivity index throughout the life of the well (production rate is
proportional to reservoir pressure)

v These assumptions leads to linear relationships between cumulative production and

reservoir pressure. Consequently, between production rate and cumulative
production.
v This linear relationship is typical of exponential decline (straight line on a semi-log
paper)

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 92

92

Exponential Equation
v The exponential decline is characterize by the fact that the production drop over a
given time interval is a fixed fraction or percentage of the preceding production
rate. So it is called geometric (a geometric series is a series where the ratio of each
two consecutive terms is constant) , semi-log or constant production decline.

⎛ dq ⎞
⎝ dt ⎠
= −b
q

Change in production constant

rate ratio

The (-) is there because the

change in production rate is
negative (decline)

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 93

93

4
 Exponential Equation

1 dq q t t t t
= −bq d ⎡⎣ ln q ⎤⎦ q = −b ⎡⎣t ⎤⎦t
∫ q (t ) dt = ∫ q e ∫e
− bt − bt
Np = dt = qi dt
q dt 0 0=0
ti =0 ti =0
i
ti =0
ln q − ln q0 = −bt
exponenial : d = 0 let u = −bt
⎛ q⎞ du −du
1 dq ln ⎜ ⎟ = −bt = −b ⇒ dt =
= −b ⎝ q0 ⎠ dt b
q dt
separate variables q
= e− bt substitute
q0
1 t
−du −qi
t
dq = −bdt
∫e b t ∫=0
− bt
q = q0 e = qi u
= eu du
q ti =0
b
i

integrate
q t
1 −qi u t −q t

∫ q dq = −b ∫
q0 t0 =0
dt = ⎡ e ⎤ = i ⎡⎣ e− bt ⎤⎦
b ⎣ ⎦ti =0 b ti =0

−qi − bt −q e− bt qi −q qi
=
b
(
e −1 = i
b
+ =
b
+)
b b
q −q
= i
b

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 94

94

Exponential Equation
v The exponential decline equation is

𝑞 = 𝑞" 𝑒 #$ %#%!
Ø 𝑞: 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑡 (𝑢𝑠𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝑡! = 0).

Ø 𝑞! : 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒.

Ø 𝑏: 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡

(𝑑𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 ℎ𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎)
Ø 𝑁" : 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛.

𝑞" − 𝑞 𝑞" #$%

𝑁& = 𝑜𝑟 𝑁& = 𝑒 " − 𝑒 #$%#
𝑏 𝑏

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 95

95

5
 Exponential Decline
v Determine b from production rate data:
#$% &" '#$%(&# )
Ø 𝑏 = −𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒 ∗
*# '*"

v Or, determine b from cumulative production data:

&" '&#
Ø 𝑏=
+$# '+$"

v Note: depending on the unit of time, t, the b can have different units such as month-
1
and year-1. The following relation can be derived:
Ø 𝑏,-./0, = 12𝑏123*40, = 356𝑏5.!0,

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 96

96

Exponential Decline

ln ( q ) = ln ( qi ) − bt

log10 ( q ) log10 ( q )
∵ ln ( q ) = log e ( q ) = = = 2.3⋅ log10 ( q )
log10 ( e) 0.434

⇒ 2.3⋅ log10 ( q ) = 2.3⋅ log10 ( qi ) − bt

so,
b
log10 ( q ) = − t + log10 ( qi )
2.3
b
slope = −
2.3
y-intercept = qi @t = 0

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 97

97

6
 Exercise 3.1
v Given that a well has declined from 100 stb/d to 96 stb/d during a one month
period. Use the exponential decline model to perform the following:
Ø Predict the production rate after 11 more month
Ø Calculate the amount of oil produced during the first year.
Ø Forecast the yearly production for the well for the next 5 years.

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 98

98

Solution 3.1 (1 of 4)
v a)
6 &&% 6 677
Ø 𝑏123*40, = 𝑙𝑛 = 𝑙𝑛 = 0.04082 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ '6
*"% '*&% &"% 6'7 89

Rate at the end of one year

Ø 𝑞6:1 = 𝑞71 𝑒 ';%* = 100𝑒 '7.7=7>: 6:
= 61.27 ?@A⁄
B

v b)
Ø 𝑏,-./0, = 0.04082 12 = 0.48986 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 '6
&& '&"'( 677'96.:D
Ø 𝑁",6,-./ = = 365 = 28,858 𝑆𝑇𝐵
;')*( 7.=>8>9

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 99

99

7
 Solution 3.1 (2 of 4)
v c)
"
Ø 𝑞:, = 100𝑒 '7.7=7>:%+.:=12 = 37.54 ?@A⁄
B or
"
'7.=>8>9'(.:,/ ?@A⁄
Ø 𝑞:, = 100𝑒 = 37.54 B or
"
'7.7=7>:%+.6:12 ?@A⁄
Ø 𝑞:, = 61.27𝑒 = 37.54 B or
"
'7.=>8>9'(.6,/ ?@A⁄
Ø 𝑞:, = 61.27𝑒 = 37.54 B or

89'ED.F=
Ø 𝑁",:,/ = 12 = 17,185 𝑆𝑇𝐵
7.7=7>: 12,"
89'ED.F=
Ø 𝑁",:,/ = 365 = 17,185 𝑆𝑇𝐵
7.=>8>9 ,/ ,"

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 100

100

Solution 3.1 (3 of 4)
v In summary

Rate at End of Year Yearly Production

Year
(stb/day) (stb)
0 100.00 -
1 61.27 28,858
2 37.54 17,681
3 23.00 10,834
4 14.09 6,639
5 8.64 4,061

68,073

8.3 Harmonic Decline

When d = 1, Eq (8.1) yields differential equation for a harmonic decline model:

1 dq
Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah = −bq Spring 2023 (8.31) 101
q dt

101 which can be integrated as

q0
q= (8.32)
1 + bt

where q0 is the production rate at t = 0.

8
Expression for the cumulative production is obtained by integration:
t
N p = ∫ qdt
0
 Solution 3.1 (4 of 4)

1000

100
Production Rate (STB/D)

y = 100e-0.49x
R² = 1

10

1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time (year)

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 102

102

Exercise 3.2

v A reservoir has been produced for 3 years. The production

history is provided in the table. Under the assumption that Time Production
the reservoir production will decline exponentially and the (years) Rate (STB/D)
economic limit is 80 STB/d: 0.10 2,900
0.30 2,500
Ø When will the reservoir reach its economic limit (in years)? 0.50 2,100
0.70 2,100
Ø What is the cumulative production from the reservoir? 0.90 1,550
1.00 1,700
1.10 1,800
1.40 1,500
1.60 1,500
1.80 1,200
1.90 950
2.00 1,050
2.20 1,100
2.40 760
2.60 750
2.80 770
3.00 700

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 103

103

9
 Solution 3.2 (1 of 3)
v First: plot the data on a semi-log graph paper
Ø Add straight line
Ø Find the equation of the straight line

Ex 3.2: Production History

10,000

1,000
Production Rate (STB/D)

y = 2848.2e-0.489x
R² = 0.95459

100

10
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Time (years)

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 104

104

Solution 3.2 (2 of 3)

qt = qi e− bt
taking natural logarithmic of both side to eliminate e
ln ( qt ) = ln ( qi ) − bt
by default
log ( x ) same
!!!!" log10 ( x )
so
log10 ( x ) log10 ( x ) log10 ( x )
ln ( x ) = log e ( x ) = = =
log10 ( e) log10 ( 2.718) 0.4343
applying the above equation to exponential decline formula
log ( qt ) log ( qi )
= − bt
0.4343 0.4343
b
log ( qt ) = log ( qt ) −t
0.4343
Then the above equation is straight line on a semi-log graph paper (y axis is log)
b
slope = −
0.4343
Δy log ( y2 ) − log ( y1 )
slope = =
Δx x2 − x1
y-intercept (@ x = 1) = qi

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 105

105

10
 Solution 3.2 (3 of 3)

Calculate the slope

Δy log ( y2 ) − log ( y1 ) log (1000 ) − log ( 2000 )
slope = = = = −0.2
Δx x2 − x1 2 − 0.5
∵ slope = − ( 0.4343* b) = −0.2
−0.2 1
⇒b= = 0.462
−0.4343 year
⇒ y-intercept (@ x = 0) = qi = 3000
So
qt = 3000e−0.462t

Dr. Faisal A. Aljalahmah Spring 2023 106

106

11