Energy Sector in Feb 2024

Energy sector
Domestic E&P to enter a new growth cycle
February 2024
Duong Dinh
Associate Director
duong.dinh@vietcap.com.vn
+8428 3914 3588 ext.140
Linh Tran Thu Vo Phuoc Duong

Analyst Analyst Analyst
linh.tranthuy@vietcap.com.vn thu.vo@vietcap.com.vn phuoc.duong@vietcap.com.vn
+8428 3914 3588 ext.196 +8428 3914 3588 ext.529 +8428 3914 3588 ext.135
Oil & Gas Stock Performance
Vietcap Oil & Gas Index vs VN-Index Vietcap Oil & Gas stocks vs VN-Index
VN-Index Brent Oil Price O&G Index PVS: +77.6% VN-Index GAS
30%
PVD: +58.5% PVD PVS
25%
DCM: +22.3% DPM DCM
20% 100%
VN-Index: +12.2%
15% 80%
GAS: -10.7%
10% 60%
DPM: -22.5%
5% 40%
0% 20%
-5% 0%
-10% -20%
-15% -40%
-20% -60%
Dec-22
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Mar-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
May-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Mar-23
Dec-23
Dec-22
Feb-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
Jun-23
Nov-23
Vietcap Petroleum Index vs VN-Index Vietcap Petroleum stocks vs VN-Index
VN-Index Brent Oil Price Petroleum Index BSR: +39.1% VN-Index BSR PLX
OIL: +25.3%
50% 80% PVT: +20.0% PVT OIL
40% 60% VN-Index: +12.2%
30% 40% PLX: +8.8%
20%
20%
10%
0% 0%
-10% -20%
-20% -40%
Oct-23
Nov-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Feb-23
Feb-23
May-23
May-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Dec-22
Jul-23
Dec-23
Dec-22
Jul-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Source: Fiinpro, Vietcap. Note: Oil & Gas and Petroleum indices are weighted by the market cap of the stock shown; data as of 2
December 29, 2023.
Oil & Gas Sector: Domestic exploration & production activity to
recover in 2024
• We forecast the average Brent oil price at USD83/bbl for 2024F, then to normalize at USD75/bbl in 2025-2028F. In 2023, Brent oil
averaged USD82/bbl, marking a 17% YoY drop from the high base in 2022. Bloomberg's consensus projects an average of USD82/bbl
for Brent in 2024 which is slightly lower than our assumption. In addition, consensus also suggests the Brent oil price to range from
USD73-88/bbl over the next five years.
• We believe domestic exploration & production (E&P) activities will enter a new cycle in 2024, supported by our resilient 2024-
2028F Brent oil price expectations and Vietnam’s revised oil & gas law, effective from July 1, 2023. We estimate total domestic E&P
capex for upstream and midstream segments of USD14bn in 2023-2033F, implying an average of USD1.4bn p.a. This is double the total
capex in 2016-2022 and equivalent to 80% of total capex in the peak period of 2010-2015. This should benefit PVD, PVS, and GAS.
• PetroVietnam Group recently targeted 2024 capex of ~USD2bn, growing 57% YoY, nearly doubling the peak capex in 2015
mainly on Block B. This confirms their strong commitment regarding issuing a final investment decision in Q2 2024.
• We forecast PVD (our top pick)’s NPAT-MI to jump ~70% YoY in 2024/25F, driven by 1) PVD’s average day rate to increase at a
double-digit rate, supported by the tight jack-up market outlook and 2) recovery of the well-related services segment, and profit from
joint ventures. PVD expects to add one additional jack-up rig online in late 2024 with an expected pay back period of four years.
• PVS (our third top pick) to benefit from global/domestic E&P recovery and the huge potential of offshore wind power projects.
PVS secured Limited Letter of Agreements (LLOA) for three contracts of Block B (EPCI#1-3) and is bidding for the other contracts.
Full disbursement for the three secured contracts is expected by H1 2024. Additionally, PVS has a competitive edge to benefit from
global offshore wind power growth. We forecast a 23% EPS CAGR for 2023-2026F, backed by a projected 2024-2028F M&C backlog of
USD5.9bn, and an average profit of ~VND436bn p.a. from FSO/FPSO JVs during 2024-2028F.
• We project Vietnam’s petroleum consumption to grow at a 2023-2028F CAGR of 4.1%, (quadruple the global growth rate
projected by the International Energy Agency, IEA), which should benefit PVT, PLX, and BSR. PetroVietnam Group also foresees strong
petroleum consumption, which is 21% higher than our current projection for petroleum consumption in 2030.
• We like PVT (our second top pick) as PVT is trading at the cheapest P/E and EV/EBITDA valuation among the oil & gas stocks under
our coverage. It was successful in expanding its oil products & chemicals fleet by ~67% in 2023. We forecast 2024F recurring NPAT-MI
growth of 37% YoY due to the full-year contribution from seven new vessels acquired in 2023 and a continued tight market (flat YoY
and ~2x of pre-Covid 19 level).
• We anticipate 28% growth in PLX’s 2024F reported NPAT due to (1) 4% YoY increase in domestic sales volume, and (2) 4% YoY
increase in gross profit per liter, aided by the full-year impact of ~3% higher regulated costs from early July 2023.
• DCM and DPM are dividend yield plays (projected yields of 6%-10% in the next three years). We anticipate earnings recovery in
2024 for DCM (+52% YoY) and DPM (+24% YoY), which should translate to robust dividend yields.
3
Oil & Gas sector: Key data and summary valuations
Oil & Gas and Petroleum stocks – Key data

Code Rating Market State Foreign Foreign ADTV Share Target Target Upside Div 12M
Cap, O’ship Limit Avail, 30D, price, price, price, % yield TSR
USD mn % % USD mn USD mn VND ps VND ps updated % %
PVD BUY 652 50.5 49 174 4.5 28.700 34,100 02/02/24 18.8 0.0 18.8
PVT BUY 364 51.0 49 129 3.0 27,150 31,200 02/05/24 14.9 3.7 18.6
PVS O-PF 731 51.4 49 212 6.2 37,300 42,600 02/06/24 14.2 1.9 18.0
DPM M-PF 557 59.6 49 223 2.6 34,750 30,300 02/07/24 -12.8 8.6 11.6
DCM O-PF 743 75.6 49 276 5.0 34,250 35,000 02/07/24 2.2 8.8 10.9
PLX O-PF 1,888 75.9 20 632 0.8 36,100 37,000 02/07/24 2.5 5.5 8.0
GAS M-PF 7,399 95.8 49 3,440 2.4 78,600 80,800 12/28/23 2.8 3.8 6.6
BSR M-PF 2,515 92.0 49 1,242 3.9 19,700 19,600 02/07/24 -0.5 3.6 3.0
Oil & Gas and Petroleum stocks – Summary valuations (based on reported earnings)
Code Share EPS g EPS g EPS g P/E P/E P/E P/E EV/EBITDA ROE P/B Net D/E
price 2023 % 2024F 2025F TTM 2023A 2024F 2025F 2024F 2024F LQ LQ
VND ps % % x x x x x % x x
PVD 28,700 N.M. 69.3 79.0 31.3 31.3 18.5 10.3 6.7 6.6 1.1 -1.3
PVT 27,150 13.8 24.7 13.4 9.4 9.4 7.5 6.6 2.9 15.3 1.2 19.8
PVS 37,300 2.0 26.8 44.6 23.4 23.4 18.5 12.8 8.3 8.0 1.4 -65.9
DPM 34,750 -90.4 24.4 118.5 31.9 31.9 25.7 11.7 7.6 5.8 1.2 -58.2
DCM 34,250 -74.3 52.6 18.8 17.8 17.8 11.7 9.8 5.5 16.4 1.8 -97.1
PLX 36,100 94.0 27.8 6.4 18.0 18.0 14.1 13.2 7.4 11.8 1.8 -33.2
GAS 78,600 -20.7 -10.1 13.6 15.7 15.7 17.4 15.4 10.5 15.9 2.8 -40.0
BSR 19,700 -42.2 -19.9 -7.9 7.2 7.2 9.0 9.7 4.5 11.5 1.1 -47.4
Source: Fiinpro, Vietcap (data as of February 20, 2024). 4

Power & Water Stock Performance
Vietcap Power & Water Index (*) vs VN-Index Renewable power stocks
VN-Index REE PC1 GEX
VN-Index Power & Water Index
HDG TV2 GEG BCG
30% 120% GEX: +90% VN-Index: +12%
TV2: +70% HDG: +10%
25% PC1: +64% REE: -9%
BCG: +40% GEG: -15%
20% 70%
15%
10% 20%
5%
0% -30%
Sep-23
May-23
Aug-23
Dec-22
Mar-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Apr-23
May-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Mar-23
Dec-23
Dec-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Thermal power generation stocks Water stocks
VN-Index NT2 POW PPC HND QTP VN-Index BWE TDM
50% TDM: +20%
30%
40% VN-Index: +12%
30% 20% BWE: -17%
20% 10%
10% 0%
0%
PPC: +17% HND: +8% -10%
-10%
QTP: +14% POW: +6% -20%
-20%
VN-Index: +12% NT2: -15%
-30% -30%
May-23
Aug-23
Dec-22
Sep-23
Mar-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Feb-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Dec-22
Feb-23
May-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Mar-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Source: FiinPro, Vietcap. (*) Our power & water index is based on market cap weighted price performance of power & water stocks 5
under our coverage - REE, HDG, PC1, GEX, POW, NT2, PPC, TDM and BWE - and non-rated stocks GEG, BCG, TV2, HND and QTP.
Power & Water Sector
Water sector outlook

We forecast that BWE and TDM will receive higher water tariffs, effective July 1, 2025. We forecast water volume to grow at 10-11% over the 2025-2028
period in BWE’s and TDM’s home province of Binh Duong, double Vietnam’s water volume growth rate. BWE and TDM have also established a presence in seven of
Vietnam’s 63 provinces/municipalities. BWE acquired a 94% stake in Biwase Long An Water JSC in June 2023, which we expect to bolster long-term growth. We
forecast Biwase Long An’s NPAT to grow at a CAGR of 64% in 2024-2028F due to doubling capacity, 15% p.a. volume growth, and 9% p.a. growth in water tariffs.
Power sector outlook
We expect the implementation plan for the Power Development Plan (PDP) VIII and a new pricing mechanism for renewables in 2024. PDP VIII, which was
approved in May 2023, targets to nearly triple the country’s renewables capacity to ~50,000 MW by 2030. We expect a strong recovery in investment in
renewables once a new pricing mechanism is released. We anticipate that this will be a bidding mechanism with price caps (ceiling prices), which should be
higher than tariffs for transitional renewable power plants to encourage investment in the sector. In addition, a Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DPPA)
mechanism, which we expect to be approved in 2024 and piloted in 2025, should also accelerate investments in renewables.
We expect the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) to facilitate meaningful policy progress and capital disbursements for Vietnam’s renewables
sector. The USD15.5bn resource mobilization plan for JETP was re-confirmed in December 2023.
We believe that the power supply will be sufficient in 2024. In early December 2023, the MoIT issued Decision 3110 which guides for a power supply of 306
billion kWh for 2024 (+9% YoY). We believe this will be sufficient to satisfy demand in 2024, which we forecast to grow by 7.7% YoY. In the worst-case scenario,
EVN forecasts a power shortage in the north of 420-1,770 MW (or only one-third of the power shortage in Q2 2023).
We forecast an average competitive generation market (CGM) price of VND1,551/kWh (+11% YoY) in 2024, which should help to offset the negative impact
of higher gas prices (we forecast an increase of 5% YoY) on thermal power producers. Meanwhile, we forecast the average price for mixed coal to decline by 6%
YoY.
Vietnam’s renewable power sector to enter a new growth cycle from 2024. We like REE. REE’s industry expertise and strong financial capacity should enable
it to expand its power portfolio from 1,050 MW currently to ~1,500 MW in 2028. We forecast an EPS CAGR of 16% in 2023-2026F. In addition, divestment from PPC
would potentially open the door for an IPO of REE Green Energy in the long term. We are also optimistic about recovery in core earnings for GEX, PC1, HDG and
TV2 in 2024, supported by recovery in the power and real estate sectors. We forecast GEX to record a VND950bn pretax gain from planned power divestments in
H1 2024.
Dividends from thermal power plants are to be supported by earnings recovery. We expect PPC’s NPAT to jump by 78%/9%YoY in 2024/25F, which should
support our dividend yield forecasts of 14%/18%, respectively. We are positive on QTP – a 16%-owned associate of PPC. QTP is trading at a 2024F P/E of 7.9x,
~30% lower compared to the average P/E of thermal stocks under our coverage, while its projected dividend yield is two times higher. We derive a fair value of
VND16,900/share, implying a projected TSR of 25.7%, including a 13.8% dividend yield.
POW is a diversified play on growth in Vietnam’s power consumption and structural transition to LNG with its upcoming Nhon Trach 3 & 4 LNG-fired power
plants, which are targeted to come online in late 2024/mid-2025 and expand POW’s capacity by 35%. We forecast an EPS CAGR of 72% over 2024-2026F.
6
Power & Water sector: Key data and summary valuations
Power & Water – Key data
Market Foreign ADTV Share Target Target
State Foreign Upside Div yield 12M TSR
Code Rating Cap, Avail, 30D, price, price, price,
O’ship % Limit % % % %
USD mn USD mn USD mn VND ps VND ps updated
PPC O-PF 181 51 49 66 0.1 13,800 15,400 12/18/23 11.6 14.5 26.1
BWE O-PF 347 19 50 112 0.3 43,450 48,400 02/19/24 11.4 3.2 14.6
HDG O-PF 335 0 50 103 1.9 26,750 30,200 2/19/24 12.9 0.0 12.9
GEX O-PF 784 0 50 303 10.0 22,500 24,100 11/20/23 7.1 4.4 11.6
REE O-PF 983 0 49 0 1.4 58,800 64,400 2/6/24 9.5 1.7 11.2
POW O-PF 1,140 80 49 513 2.3 11,900 12,600 2/5/24 5.9 0.0 5.9
TDM M-PF 193 0 50 85 0.1 42,300 42,100 02/19/24 -0.5 3.3 2.8
PC1 O-PF 366 0 49 153 10.2 28,800 28,000 11/9/23 -2.8 0.0 -2.8
NT2 U-PF 313 60 49 113 0.9 26,600 20,100 1/23/24 -24.4 3.8 -20.7
QTP NR 278 64 49 133 0.1 15,100 16,900 12/18/23 11.9 13.8 25.7
TV2 NR 112 51 15 2.7 0.9 40,650 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Power & Water – Summary valuations (based on reported earnings)

Code Share EV ROE
EPS g EPS g EPS g P/E TTM P/E P/E P/E Net D/E
price /EBITDA 2024F P/B LQ x
2023 % 2024F % 2025F % x 2023 x 2024F x 2025F x LQ x
VND ps 2024F x %
PPC 13,800 -11.5 78.8 9.0 10.6 10.6 6.0 5.5 6.6 14.3 1.0 -2.8
BWE 43,450 -9.6 8.6 42.1 15.0 15.0 13.8 9.7 7.4 13.9 1.7 91.0
HDG 26,750 -35.1 16.5 59.7 11.8 11.8 10.2 6.4 6.6 13.0 1.4 65.5
GEX 22,500 -10.3 317.1 -39.8 58.4 58.4 14.0 23.3 5.1 11.5 1.6 78.6
REE 58,800 -18.7 4.9 18.9 11.0 11.0 10.5 8.8 8.9 12.6 1.4 31.7
POW 11,900 -47.8 12.9 159.5 27.3 27.3 24.2 9.3 7.0 3.8 0.9 12.0
TDM 42,300 28.5 -29.2 75.7 16.2 16.2 25.2 14.4 11.8 9.1 2.1 5.8
PC1 28,800 -70.3 394.3 21.5 70.8 70.8 14.3 11.8 8.1 12.3 1.7 118.7
NT2 26,600 -45.1 N.M. N.M. 16.4 16.4 -31.9 16.0 28.0 -6.0 1.8 -20.7
QTP 15,100 -7.8 46.8 11.7 11.6 11.6 7.9 7.1 7.4 15.5 1.3 10.3
TV2 40,650 0.0 N/A N/A 51.8 51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.1 -4.9
Source: FiinPro, Vietcap (data as of February 20, 2024) 7

Oil & Gas Sector
February 2024
Thu Vo Phuoc Duong Duong Dinh

Analyst Analyst Associate Director
thu.vo@vietcap.com.vn phuoc.duong@vietcap.com.vn duong.dinh@vietcap.com.vn
+8428 3914 3588 ext.529 +8428 3914 3588 ext.135 +8428 3914 3588 ext.140
Expecting average Brent oil price to remain at USD83/bbl in 2024
• Brent oil price finished 2023 with an average of USD82/bbl (-17% YoY; broadly in line with our forecast of USD83/bbl), after
fluctuating within the range of USD72/bbl to USD97/bbl. We attribute the YoY decrease mainly to (1) weak global economic data,
coupled with (2) non-OPEC+ supply growth and (3) normalization after 2022’s high base which outweighs (4) the OPEC+ effort to cut
output, and (5) ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• Average Brent oil price YTD as of February 20, 2024, is USD80/bbl, which is 4% lower than our current assumption of USD83/bbl but
still in line with our full-year expectation.
Brent oil price movement (USD/bbl)

140
(4) China (6) OPEC+ (8) Saudi (10) (11) Concerns on
continued to further cut oil Arabia Saudi the weak US
130
implement production of 1.16 announced an Arabia gasoline
strict COVID-19 mb/d from May additional and consumption and
120 measures until end-2023 voluntary oil Russia the slow
output cut of 1 extended economic
110 mb/d in July their cuts recovery of China
until end-
100 2023
90
80 (2) OPEC+ agreed to

increase oil production
70 by 0.65 mb/d in July
and August (5) China
60 eased its (7) Weak global (9) Russia announced an (12) Red
(3) OPEC+ agreed to additional voluntary oil Sea tension
(1) Russia-Ukraine COVID-19 economic data
cut oil production by 2 output cut of 0.5 mb/d in
conflict prompts risk of measures dampened
50 mb/d in November
oil supply uncertainties energy demand August, while Saudi Arabia
2022 extended its cut to August
40 May-23
May-22
Aug-23
Sep-23
Aug-22
Sep-22
Dec-23
Mar-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Feb-22
Jun-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Jan-22
Apr-22
Feb-23
Jan-23
Apr-23
Feb-24
Source: Fiinpro, Vietcap 9
We maintain our average Brent oil price forecasts at USD83/bbl
for 2024F and USD75/bbl for 2025-2028F
Vietcap’s Brent oil (USD/bbl) and fuel oil price Brent oil price forecasts (USD/bbl)
(USD/tonne) base case assumptions
Institutions 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F Forecast
Brent oil price (USD/bbl) - RS
as of
Medium fuel oil price (USD/tonne) - LS
Bloomberg 83 80 81 73 88 Feb-24
150 502 600
448 450 consensus
414 399 400 400 400 400
361 EIA 82 79 N/A N/A N/A Feb-24
100 400
245 World Bank 81 80 N/A N/A N/A Oct-23
99
82 83 75
Average of 82 80 81 73 88
50 71 71 75 75 75 200
64 above forecast
43 Vietcap's oil price 83 75 75 75 75
0 0
base case
2026F
2020
2022
2025F
2018
2019
2028F
2027F
2021
2023
2024F
Source: Bloomberg, Vietcap Source: Institutions in table, Vietcap
Vietcap’s LNG price forecasts (USD/MMBTU) Gas price forecasts

World Bank's Henry Hub natural gas price forecast - LHS
Asian spot LNG prices (CME) - LHS • Global LNG price plunged ~60-70%
Asian spot LNG prices (IEA forecasts) - LHS YoY in 2023 from its 2022 high base.
Vietcap's LNG term price forecast (inclusive of transporation tariff) - LHS
40 120 • In its January 2024 gas report, the IEA
Vietcap's Brent oil price base case - RHS
100
forecasted 2024’s average gas price
30 at USD9/MMBTU (-11% YoY), in which
80 2024’s Asian spot LNG prices are at
18.0 16.9
20 14.8 13.3 60 USD12/MMBTU (-16% YoY).
12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3
9.8 40 • Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
10 5.6 4.2
20 futures as of February 2024 imply
average LNG prices in Asia of
0 0
USD9.4/MMBTU in 2024.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Source: World Bank, IEA, CME, Vietcap. Note: Vietcap’s LNG price forecast (term contract) is calculated based on 13% of Brent oil price + tariff, according
to industry players. Forecasts of the World Bank as of Oct-23, IEA’s is as of Jan-24, CME’s is as of Feb-24.
10
Global E&P outlook
• S&P Global forecasts global spending for the upstream oil & gas sector to recover at a 4% CAGR in 2023-2027F.
Additionally, the International Energy Forum forecasts global spending for the upstream oil & gas sector to recover at a 6%
CAGR in 2022-2025F.
• Middle East to lead the recovery of global E&P. Saudi Arabia plans to increase capacity to 13.2 million bpd from their current
12.2 million bpd by 2027. Saudi Aramco has planned to allocate capex of USD45-55bn (+20%-46% YoY) in 2023, which will
increase until 2025 as part of its strategy to grow its oil production capacity to 13 million bpd by 2027. Additionally, ADNOC plans
to expand to 5 million bpd from 4.2 million bpd by 2027. To execute this plan, ADNOC plans to spend up to USD150bn of capex in
the next five years. These two companies will hold about 70% of the Middle East’s demand.
• Southeast Asia has an upbeat E&P outlook. The notable countries with E&P activities in Southeast Asia are Malaysia, followed
by Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. In Malaysia, Petronas (the Malaysian national oil & gas company) targets for capex of
USD24bn for the oil & gas sector for 2023-2027F, which is 12% higher vs 2018-2022. Furthermore, PTT Exploration and
Production (PTTEP) – the national petroleum exploration and production company in Thailand – targets to spend USD18bn on
E&P activities in 2023-2027F and a 6.3% CAGR increase in production in 2022-2027F).
Global oil & gas upstream capital spending (USD bn)
800 757
699
700 644
597 606
600
509 508
486 464
500 433 452 450
419 400 416
400 369 352 373
286
300
200
100
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Evercore ISI, Vietcap

11
Vietnam oil & gas sector
12
O&G stocks in the value chain
Upstream Mid-stream Downstream
PetroVietnam PVS GAS GAS BSR PLX

Exploration & PXS PVT OIL
Production, PVB
Vietsovpetro,
DPM
PVS, PVD, PVC
Urea production DCM
Source: Boston Strategies International, Vietcap. Note: Stocks under our coverage are in red. 13
Vietnam’s proven oil & gas reserves vs regional peers
Unit:
Oil proven reserves: billion barrels
Gas proven reserves: billion cbm
China:
• Oil: 26.0
• Gas: 8,400
Vietnam:
India: • Oil: 4.4
• Oil: 4.5 • Gas: 600
• Gas:
1,300 Malaysia:
• Oil: 2.7
Thailand: • Gas: 900
• Oil: 0.3
• Gas: 100
Indonesia:
Australia: • Oil: 2.4
• Oil: 2.4 • Gas:
• Gas: 2,400 1,300
Source: BP Statistics, Vietcap. Note: Data as of end 2020. 14

Vietnam’s oil & gas production to grow in the next five years
Crude oil and gas production in Vietnam
Crude oil production (million tonnes) Gas production (bcm) CAGR 2014-2023: 2023:
20 18.7
17.3 17.2 Crude: -7.4% p.a Crude: -4.0% YoY
15.5 Gas: -3.3% p.a Gas: -7.7% YoY
14.0
15 13.0
10.7 10.6 11.5
10.1 9.8 10.0 10.2
8.9 9.1 9.0 8.1 8.6
10 7.3 7.5
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: PetroVietnam Group (PVN), General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), Vietcap
Vietnam’s crude oil production outlook (million cubic meters/cbm) Vietnam’s gas production outlook (billion
cubic meters)
Oil production from fields hard to develop
Oil production from potential discovered fields 2021-2030 2031-2050
Oil production from fields having potential to develop
15 Oil production from fields under exploitation Northern 0.9 0.2
12 Northern-Central 0.0 0.0
Central 20.6 145.1
9
Southern-Central 0.0 0.0
6 Southeast 60.7 27.9
Southwest 35.8 70.0
3
Total 118.0 243.1
0
2032F
2024F
2021
2025F
2031F
2022
2028F
2033F
2023
2027F
2030F
2034F
2035F
2026F
2029F
Source: National Energy Development Plan for 2021-2030, Vietcap 15

Vietnam’s revised Oil & Gas Law to encourage investment in
new projects
Our comparison between the old and revised Oil & Gas Law
Old Oil & Gas Law Revised Oil & Gas Law Vietcap’s comments
Extend Not more than 25 years. Not more than 30 years. Provides more flexibility for
contract term investors’ investment horizons;
of oil & gas encourages longer-term
contracts investment.
Tax incentives No rule on preferred tax rates for For oil & gas blocks/fields receiving Reduces tax burden for investors
special projects. special preferred/preferred and encourages investment in oil &
investment policy, the corporate gas projects.
income tax rate is 25%/32% and
crude oil export tax is 5%/10%,
respectively.
Cost recovery Cost recovery ratio and profit- Industry players expect the profit- Creates a more favorable business
and profit sharing ratio are negotiated and sharing ratio (50%-80%) between environment for investors as higher
sharing stated in oil & gas contracts. Vietnam and foreign investors to be cost recovery ratios will allow
higher. investors to recover more capex
The maximum cost recovery ratio and opex costs.
for oil & gas contracts receiving
preferred investment policies and
receiving special preferred
investment policies is 70% and
80%, respectively. According to
industry players, the revised cost
recovery ratios are higher than the
previous ratios.
Source: Vietnam’s National Assembly, Vietcap 16

PetroVietnam Group plans to boost capex in 2024, nearly double
peak capex in 2015
• For 2024, PetroVietnam targets a capex of VND49.2tn (USD2.0bn; +50% vs actual 2023 and nearly 2x of peak capex
in 2015), mainly for gas projects, especially the Block B - O Mon project, which reflects the management’s commitment to
achieve the FID milestone as planned in April 2024.
• PetroVietnam’s subsidiaries also have significant capex plans, such as:
1. Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation (PVEP) leads the investment for 2024 with capex
guidance of VND20.6tn (USD851mn), including large-scale projects: Block B&48/95 and Block 52/97 exploitation
development project of PVN and PVEP (VND5.5tn); PVEP’s Block 05-1a development project (VND5.1tn); PVEP's
FPSO purchase project (VND3.6tn).
2. PVT set 2024 capex guidance of VND3.3tn (USD136mn; -22% vs actual 2023). We attribute the company’s
plans to acquire in new vessels, rejuvenate its existing fleet, and expand its market share in overseas markets.
3. PVD set 2024 capex guidance of VND2.1tn (USD87mn; 14.4x vs actual 2023). We attribute the company’s plans
to (1) acquire 1-2 new second-hand rigs, and (2) invest in equipment for the growing well-related services
segment.
4. PVS set 2024 capex guidance of VND1.8tn (USD74mn; 2x vs actual 2023). We attribute these plans to the
company preparing for upcoming M&C projects.
• In 2023, PetroVietnam’s capex reached VND32.0tn (USD1.3bn; +24% YoY). In 2023, PVN achieved revenue of
VND942.8tn (+2.3% YoY), and PBT of VND54.5tn (-33% YoY), which beat its guidance by 39% and 57%, respectively. In
addition, PVN’s financial capacity is strong, which is affirmed by its Fitch rating of “BB+” and a “stable” outlook. At the end
of 2022, PVN had cash & equivalents of VND236tn (USD9.8bn) compared with total debt of VND61tn (USD2.5bn).
17
Source: Public media, Vietcap
Domestic E&P to enter a new cycle starting in 2024
We expect domestic E&P activities to pick up in H2 2024. We estimate total domestic E&P capex for the upstream and
midstream segments of USD14bn in 2023-2033F, implying an average of USD1.4bn p.a. This is double the total capex in 2016-2022
and equivalent to ~80% of total capex in the peak period of 2010-2015.
Vietnam’s historical E&P capex (USD mn) vs Brent oil price (USD/bbl)
Vietnam E&P capex (USDmn) - LHS Brent oil price (USD/bbl) - RHS
4,000 Total capex of USD17bn 120

(USD2.8bn average p.a.)
3,500
100
3,000 Total capex of USD5.7bn
(USD818mn average p.a.) 80
2,500
2,000 60
1,500
40
1,000
20
500
0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Industry players, Fiinpro, Vietcap 18

We estimate total E&P capex for domestic oil & gas projects of at
least USD14bn in 2023-2033F
Select oil & gas projects in Vietnam expected in 2023-2033

Our
Capex* Oil/gas expected
No. Block Project Investors Status Location
(USD mn) reserves first gas or
first oil
GAS PROJECTS
1 52/97; Block B 5,186 107 bcm PVN (42.9%), PVEP (26.8%), Expected to get an FID in 2027 Malay Tho
48/95 MOECO (22.6%), PTTEP H1 2024. Chu Basin
(7.7%)
2 117-119 Blue Whale 4,600 150 bcm ExxonMobil (64%), PVN In Feb ‘24, Prime minister 2028 Song Hong
(36%) requested first gas on Q4 Basin
2026.
3 15-1 White Lion - 1,100 24 bcm Cuu Long JOC including Expected to get an FID in 2026 Cuu Long
Phase 2B PVEP (50%), ConocoPhillips H1 2024. PVS is bidding. Basin
(23.25%), KNOC (14.25%), GAS expects to finish
SKI (9%), Geopetrol (3.5%) feasibility study approval
for the gas pipeline in
mid-2024.
4 112-113 Bao Vang - 1,321 58 bcm PVN (50%), Gazprom (50%) Exploration 2030 Song Hong
Bao Den Basin
5 114 Ken Bau N/A 200-250 bcm Eni Vietnam B.V. (50%), Discovery After 2030 Song Hong
Essar E&P Limited (50%), Basin
6 46/07; 51 Nam Du - U 750 4.8 bcm Jadestone Energy (100%) On January 2024, GAS 2027 Malay Tho
Minh signed HOA with Chu Basin
Jadestone Energy.
OIL PROJECTS
1 15/1-05 Yellow Camel 700 63 mn bbl Murphy Oil (40%), PVEP In November 2023, 2026-2027 Cuu Long
(35%), SKI (25%) received an FID Expected Basin
PVS to be awarded M&C
contracts in H1 2024.
2 09-2/09 Kinh Ngu 650 6 mn bbl Vietsovpetro (40%), PVEP In development 2025 Cuu Long
Trang - Kinh (30%), AO Zarubezhneft Basin
Ngu Trang (30%)
Nam
Total 14,307
19
Source: Public media, Vietcap (* Vietcap’s estimated capex for upstream & midstream segments for 2023-2033F; bcm:
billion cubic meters; FID: final investment decision)
Vietnam currently has 13 pre-tenders and tenders open looking
for massive drilling campaign
Select tentative drilling jobs in Vietnam

No. Oil/gas field Location Operator Status Workload Start drilling
date
1 Ca Tam N/A Vietsovpetro Possible 540 drilling days 2025
2 N/A N/A Cuu Long JOC Pre-tender N/A February 1, 2024
3 Sao Vang – Dai Nam Con Son Idemitsu Pre-tender Two wells March 1, 2024
Nguyet basin
4 Te Giac Trang Cuu Long basin Hoang Long-Hoan Pre-tender One or two rigs, 4-6 wells (540 April 1, 2024
& Ca Ngu Vang Vu JOC drilling days)
5 Block 15-2/17 – Cuu Long basin Murphy Tender One JU rig, one to six firm wells, June 30, 2024
Hai Su and four optional wells (60-520
Trang/Hai Su drilling days for firm wells and
Den 400 drilling days for optional
wells)
6 Block 11-2 – Cuu Long basin KNOC (Incoming Tender Two wells H1 2024
Rong Doi operator:
Zarubezhneft)
7 Dai Hung – Cuu Long basin PetroVietnam Tender One JU rig, 12 wells July 2024
Phase 3 Exploration
Production
Corporation (PVEP)
8 Block 09-2 - Ca Cuu Long basin Vietsovpetro Tender Two JU rigs (2-year-contract September 2024
Ngu Vang for each JU rig)
9 Yellow Camel Cuu Long basin Murphy Market One JU rig, eight wells (800 2025-2026
survey drilling days)
10 Block 15-1 Cuu Long basin Cuu Long JOC Pre-tender N/A April 1, 2025
Source: PVD, Vietcap. Note: JOC: joint operating company
20
PVS, PVD & GAS are the main beneficiaries of new domestic
projects
Jobs for oil & gas companies from notable domestic projects, 2023-2033 period
Companies with White Lion - Phase 2B Yellow Camel Block B Blue Whale
potential workload
GAS Pipeline investment and No Pipeline investment and No
gas transportation gas transportation
PVS 1 CPP + 1-2 WHP 1 CPP + 1 WHP + 1 FSO 1 CPP + 46 WHPs + 1 FSO 1 WHP
PVD 1 JU rig 1 JU rig 1-2 JU rigs 1 semi-submersible rig
Vietsovpetro + PXS No No No 1 CPP
(sub-contractor)
PVB Pipeline coating
PVC Mud and chemicals for drilling
Contract value* White Lion - Phase 2B Yellow Camel Block B** Blue Whale
(USD mn)
GAS 350 N/A N/A N/A
PVS 250 283 3,313 830
PVD 220 294 857 N/A
Vietsovpetro + PXS 0 N/A N/A N/A
PVB 17 N/A 130 N/A
N/A
PVC 15 N/A N/A
Others 248 N/A 886 N/A
Total capex (USD mn) 1,100 700 5,186 4,600
Source: Vietcap (* Vietcap’s estimated capex for upstream & midstream segments for 2023-2033F, ** GAS has a 51% stake in the gas pipeline which is
included in PVS’s contract value; PXS: Petroleum Equipment Assembly & Metal Structure; PVB: PetroVietnam Coating; PVC: PetroVietnam Chemical &
Services; CPP: Central Processing Platform; WHP: Wellhead Platform; FSO: floating storage and offloading unit).
21
Block B to receive final investment decision (FID) in H1 2024
Block B project value chain
Mid stream (USD1.3bn): Gas

Upstream (USD8bn): Central Downstream (USD4.6bn): Gas feedstock
pipelines
production platform to extract gas supplied to four O Mon power plants
Beneficiaries: GAS, PVS, PVB
Beneficiaries: PVS, PVD O Mon 1: EVN
Shareholders: GAS (51%),
Shareholders: PVN & PVEP (70%), O Mon 2: Marubeni & a Vietnamese partner
PVN (29%), MOECO & PTTEP
MOECO (22%), PTTEP (8%) O Mon 3 & 4: PVN
(20%)
22
Source: PVN, Vietcap
Pros & cons to Block B receiving final investment decision
Pros & cons to Block B receiving a final investment decision
Pros Cons
1. On October 30, 2023, PVN and foreign partners held a 1. Block B’s gas price (USD12-14/MMBTU including a
ceremony to sign heads of agreement (HOA) to extract transportation tariff of USD1.57/MMBTU) is not
the first gas from Block B project in 2027. In addition, PVS competitive with the price of LNG imports. We forecast
received the Limited Letter of Agreements (LLOA) of Vietnam’s import LNG term price to be USD14.8/MMBTU in
EPCI#1-3 contracts. 2023F and then decline to USD13.3/MMBTU in 2024F and
2. On October 9, 2023, Can Tho City People's Committee USD12.3/MMBTU in 2025-2028F. As a result, the electricity
approved EVN to transfer the ownership of the O Mon III price of the O Mon power plants fueled by gas from Block B
& IV power plants to PVN. In addition, the MoIT allowed O is potentially higher than if being fueled by LNG. This
Mon power plants to indirectly join the competitive means EVN may pay a higher cost to mobilize electricity
generation market. from the O Mon power plants. We note that the Science
3. In 2022, foreign partners agreed to have no Council has recently proposed to reduce Block B’s gas
Government guarantee. The production sharing contract price from USD13-14/MMBTU to USD12/MMBTU.
(PSC) of Block B was extended to December 31, 2049, 2. PVN and EVN have not yet finalized the contracted
which will be effective starting from the date the Prime volume for each power plant, Gas Sales & Purchase
Minister of Vietnam issuing the FID. Agreement (GSPA), Gas Sales Agreement (GSA), Gas
4. Huge demand for gas: The MoIT targets for gas-fired Transportation Agreement (GTA), and Power Purchase
power capacity to more than double to 14,930 MW by 2030 Agreement (PPA). However, we note that a passthrough
compared to 2020. In addition, Vietnam faced a gas mechanism (gas price to electricity price) was approved.
shortage in Q2 2019 and Q2 2023.
5. The Government can collect estimated tax revenue of
USD22bn from Block B during its lifespan, apart from
ensuring a secure national energy supply.
Source: Public media, Vietcap 23

Beneficiaries of Block B
Estimated revenue and NPAT for beneficiaries of Block B (USD mn)

Beneficiaries Potential Potential Details
revenue NPAT
PVS 5,800 330 We forecast profit from the below six contracts of at least USD330mn in 2024-2050F. We
also forecast these contracts to contribute 8%-37% to PVS’s 2023-2027F NPAT-MI. We
have not yet included any contract value from gas field clearance at the end of the project’s
life cycle.
Contract details:
1. EPCI#1 of 1 CPP + 1 living quarters platform + 1 flare tower (USD500mm)
2. EPCI#2 of 4 WHPs and interfield gas pipelines (USD400mn)
3. EPCI#3 of offshore gas pipeline (USD400mn)
4. EPCI#4 of onshore gas pipeline (USD257mn)
5. EPCI of 42 WHPs (USD4.2bn)
6. FSO leasing contract
PVD 2,074 267 We estimate profit from drilling & well-related services to contribute USD44mn to PVD’s
NPAT-MI in 2026-2027F (16% of its 2026-2027F aggregate NPAT-MI). We expect profit from
Block B to contribute USD223mn to PVD’s NPAT-MI in 2028-2050F.
GAS 3,575 2,100 We estimate profit from gas transportation to account for an average ~6% of GAS’s NPAT-
MI in 2028-2033F.
PVB 130 13 Contract for gas pipeline coating.
24
Source: Vietcap
PVD – Additional jack-up rig to strengthen robust growth outlook
Rating* BUY (USD mn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

YTD PVD VNI
Share Price (Feb 20) VND28,700 Revenue 245 313 397 467
Target Price (TP)* VND34,100 %YoY 5.2% 27.6% 26.8% 17.7%
NPAT-MI 24.5 41.4 74.2 100.2 1Y
Upside to TP +18.8% % YoY N.M. 69.3% 79.0% 35.1%
Dividend Yield 0.0% Recurring NPAT-MI 24.4 41.4 74.2 100.2 3Y ann.
TSR +18.8% % YoY 568.0% 69.7% 79.0% 35.1%
Recurring EPS %YoY 568.0% 69.7% 79.0% 35.1% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Industry Oil & Gas GPM 22.4% 23.5% 29.5% 31.9%
Market Cap USD652mn NPM 10.0% 13.2% 18.7% 21.4% Company Overview
Foreign Room USD174mn ROE 4.1% 6.6% 10.8% 13.0% PVD is a member of the PetroVietnam Group and the
Net D/E leading domestic provider of drilling services for the
ADTV30D USD4.5mn -1.3% -9.7% -14.7% -26.0%
oil & gas industry. PVD holds the majority market
State Ownership 50.5% P/E 31.3x 18.5x 10.3x 7.6x
share in all its key segments, including 50% in
Outstanding Shares 556.3 mn P/B 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x drilling services and 55%-100% in well-related
Fully Diluted Shares 556.3 mn EV/EBITDA 9.2x 6.7x 4.1x 2.7x services. PVD’s fleet includes four jack-up (JU) rigs,
3-Year PEG 0.3 * TP and rating last updated Feb 2, 2024 one tender assist drilling rig (TAD), and one land rig.
The leading domestic provider of drilling and related services for the oil & gas industry (50% market share in drilling and 50%-100% share in related
services). Its drilling fleet is young, modern, and efficient, meeting international standards and outperforming its peers’ average. The average age of PVD’s
jack-up (JU) rigs is 11.2 years, compared to the peers’ average of 17 years and typical JU rig lifetime of 30-35 years. PVD’s rigs have a high efficiency ratio
(safety ratio) of 97%, which enables them to compete with global leaders such as Transocean and Seadrill. With its cost-effective and reliable drilling
services, PVD is well-positioned to capture the rising drilling demand in the region.
PVD's medium-term outlook is brightened by the upbeat jack-up market in Southeast Asia. The region is expected to face a rig shortage in 2024-
2025F, as the marketed surplus rigs will be either negative or negligible (0-2 rigs) according to S&P Global. This will keep the market tight until at least end-
2025. The Southeast Asian average jack-up day rate rose by 33% YoY to USD120,000 in 2023, according to S&P Global. In addition, industry players
anticipate a double-digit increase to USD130,000-USD150,000 in 2024.
We reiterate our positive outlook for domestic E&P, which is set to enter a new cycle from 2024, driven by the development of key projects such as
Block B, Yellow Camel, and Dai Hung – Phase 3, etc. We project 2024F reported NPAT-MI to surge by 70% YoY, fueled by a 25% YoY increase in the
average JU day rate, a 96% JU utilization rate, and a 30% YoY expansion in the well-related services revenue, reflecting the recovery of domestic E&P
activities.
PVD’s valuation looks attractive at 2024/2025F P/E of 18.5/10.3x (three-year PEG of 0.3 based on our projected 2023-2026F reported EPS CAGR of 60%).
We believe PVD’s robust earnings growth outlook justifies its high near-term P/Es.
Upside potential: Investment of one more jack-up rig with cooperation from a partner.
Downside risks: Unrealized forex loss on its USD-denominated debt; PVD expects nominal impacts on the risk of the oil price plunging on its earnings as
most of its rigs have secured long-term contracts at nearly fixed day rates.
25
PVD - Tight SEA jack-up market outlook to boost day rates
• Southeast Asian JU market to potentially face a rig shortage in 2024-2025F. S&P Global forecasts the marketed surplus rigs in
Southeast Asia to be either negative or slightly positive in number of rigs (0-2 rigs) in 2024-2025F. As a result, S&P Global expects the
Southeast Asian JU market to stay tight until at least end-2025. The Southeast Asian average jack-up day rate was USD120,000 in
2023 (+33% YoY) according to S&P Global. Industry players expect a double-digit increase in the day rate to USD130,000-USD150,000
in 2024.
Day rate of JU IC 361-400 WD in Southeast Asia
160,000 Day rate (USD) - LHS Utilization rate % - RHS Brent oil price (USD/bbl) - RHS 140
140,000 132,966 120
120,000
100
100,000
80
80,000
60
60,000
40
40,000
20,000 20
0 0
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
Source: S&P Global, Vietcap 26

PVS – Management expects Block B project to receive FID in Q2 2024
Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

Revenue YTD PVS VNI
Share Price (Feb 20) VND37,300 19,349 28,084 42,817 51,875
Target Price (TP)* VND42,600 % YoY 18.2% 45.1% 52.5% 21.2%
NPAT-MI 866 1,098 1,588 1,963 1Y
Upside to TP +14.2% % YoY -2.0% 26.8% 44.6% 23.6%
Dividend Yield 1.9% Recurring NPAT-MI 866 1,098 1,588 1,963 3Y ann.
TSR +18.0% EPS % YoY -2.0% 26.8% 44.6% 23.6%
GPM 4.9% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Industry Oil & Gas EBITDA margin 1.7% 4.3% 4.9% 4.7% Company Overview
Market Cap USD731mn OPM -1.0% 1.9% 3.3% 3.5% As a member of PetroVietnam Group and the only
Foreign Room USD212mn NPM 4.6% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% domestic provider of technical services (excluding
ROE 6.6% 8.0% 10.7% 11.9% drilling services) for the oil & gas industry, PVS enjoys
ADTV30D USD6.2mn
majority market shares in related industries, including
State Ownership 51.4% EV/EBITDA 31.9x 8.3x 4.4x 3.0x
offshore support vessels (OSV/ship segment, 97%
Outstanding Shares 478.0 mn P/E 23.4x 18.5x 12.8x 10.3x market share), mechanics & construction (M&C),
Fully Diluted Shares 478.0 mn P/B 1.4x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x supply base (port segment, 100%), and floating oil
3-year PEG 0.8 * TP and rating last updated February 6, 2024 storage (FSO/FPSO, 60%). PVS owns and operates a
fleet of 21 vessels, three FSOs, and two FPSOs.
PVS is poised for ample growth from offshore wind power projects. PVS has a strong competitive edge as a well-known offshore oil & gas contractor in
Asia with a comprehensive service portfolio. PVS can capitalize on the global offshore wind power trend, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, which has
the highest growth potential. According to McKinsey, global offshore wind capacity will grow 16x from 40 GW in 2020 to 630 GW in 2050. The Asia-Pacific
region will account for 65% of this capacity, with a 37x increase from 11 GW in 2020 to 410 GW in 2050. In addition, the approved Vietnam’s Power
Development Plan (PDP) VIII guides for Vietnam’s offshore wind capacity to increase to 6,000 MW by 20230, roughly USD12bn (vs zero now).
PVS's recovery cycle is backed by a projected robust M&C backlog of USD5.9bn for 2024-2028F, which includes 1) medium gas projects such as Gallaf
(USD80mn) and White Lion – Phase 2 (USD250mn), 2) giant gas projects including Block B (US1.5bn) and Blue Whale (USD830mn), 3) LNG terminals: Thi
Vai – Phase 2 & 3 and Son My (USD300mn each), and 4) regional and domestic offshore wind power projects (USD1bn each).
We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to increase 27% YoY as we anticipate M&C revenue to jump 69% YoY, driven by the recovery of domestic exploration &
production (E&P) activities, contributions from new offshore wind power projects, and gross margin assumption to rise to 3.5% vs 1.4% in 2023.
PVS looks attractive at a 2024F P/E of 18.5x, an implied three-year PEG of 0.8 and cash on hand of USD416mn as of the end of 2023 (57% of its market
cap as of February 6, 2024).
Upside potential: Profit contributions from the USD5bn offshore wind power project to export electricity to Singapore; higher-than-expect profit from
the FPSO/FSO segment.
Downside risks: Delays to the Block B project.
27
PVS - Projected M&C backlog for 2024-2028F of USD5.9bn
M&C backlog Total 2024F Estimated backlog for Estimated backlog for
(USD mn) contract value M&C revenue 2024-2028F 2024-2030F
Signed backlog 1,280 324 896 1,082
% of total 18% 42% 15% 17%
Unsigned backlog 5,893 454 4,963 5,317
% of total 82% 58% 85% 83%
Total 7,173 777 5,859 6,400
No. M&C contract Total 2024F M&C Estimated backlog Estimated backlog
(USD mn) contract value revenue for 2024-2028F for 2024-2030F
Offshore projects 6,441 742 5,143 5,684
Oil & Gas projects 3,573 382 3,073 3,073
1 Gallaf - Batch 3 (in Qatar) 380 80 80 80
2 Shwe (in Myanmar) 200 0 0 0
3 White Lion - Phase 2B 250 75 250 250
4 Block B* 1,557 202 1,557 1,557
5 Blue Whale 830 0 830 830
6 Yellow Camel* 356 25 356 356
Offshore wind projects 2,868 360 2,070 2,611
1 Hai Long 2 & 3 (in Taiwan) 68 0 0 0
2 Greater Changhua 2b & 4 (in Taiwan) 320 144 176 176
3 Baltica 2 (in Poland) 180 54 135 135
4 Fengmiao (in Taiwan) 100 30 100 100
5 Other overseas offshore wind projects 1,200 132 1,059 1,200
6 Domestic offshore wind projects 1,000 0 600 1,000
Onshore projects 732 36 716 716
1 Thi Vai LPG tanker 32 16 16 16
2 Thi Vai LNG terminal - Phase 2 100 20 100 100
3 Thi Vai LNG terminal - Phase 3 300 0 300 300
4 Son My LNG terminal 300 0 300 300
Total (USD mn) 7,173 777 5,859 6,400
Source: Vietcap 28
Vietnam’s structural transition to LNG
29
LNG import projects are future of Vietnam’s oil & gas industry
• The Government guides for Vietnam to have strong gas demand, which will be driven by robust gas demand from power plants
that is projected to increase 3.5x in the next 10 years. Vietnam will primarily self-supply gas until 2023; however, we estimate a
deficit of approximately 3.9 billion cbm starting in 2025. Therefore, importing LNG will be necessary.
Vietnam’s gas demand by segment (bcm) Vietnam’s gas demand from power plants by region (bcm)
Power Fertilizer Industrials North Central Southeast Southwest
40 30
30
20
20
10
10
0 0
2020G 2025G 2030G 2020E 2025G 2030G
Source: National Energy Development Plan for 2021-2030, Vietcap
Gas shortage outlook (Vietcap estimates) (bcm)
20
Surplus/Deficit Total gas supply Total gas demand 13.9 14.5 14.6
15 11.1
9.8 10.1 9.0
10 7.2 7.8 7.4 7.2
5
0.1 0.1
0
-5
-3.9
-10 -6.1 -6.0 -6.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Source: GAS, Vietcap 30

We estimate total capex of USD26bn for LNG projects in the
next 10 years
• In the National Energy Development Plan for 2021-2030, the Government targets to import 2.2 bcm of LNG by 2025, which is
guided to increase to 15.7 bcm of LNG by 2030. 16 LNG projects (LNG terminal and LNG-fired power plants) were approved in the
Government’s gas master plan for 2020-2035 and Vietnam’s Power Development Plan VIII.
Some LNG terminal projects in Vietnam
Thi Vai LNG Terminal
Location Ba Ria - Vung Tau Province
Investor GAS
Investment Phase 1: USD286mn Son My LNG Terminal - Phase 1
Phase 2: USD200mn
Location Binh Thuan Province
Phase 3: USD200mn
Investor GAS
Capacity Phase 1: 1 MMTPA
Phase 2: 3 MMTPA Investment USD1.4bn
Phase 3: 6 MMTPA Capacity 3-6 MMTPA
Operation year Phase 1: 2024 Operation year 2027
Phase 2: 2027
Phase 3: 2028 Status Receiving approval for investment
plan
Status Phase 1: Finishing test run Power plants to supply Son My 1, 2 & 3
Phase 2: Waiting for MoIT's
approval of a feasibility study
Phase 3: N/A
Power plants to supply Nhon Trach 3 and 4
Hai Linh LNG Terminal - Phase 1

Long An LNG Terminal
Location Ba Ria – Vung Tau Province
Location Long An Province
Investor Hai Linh Ltd (private company)
Investor VinaCapital & General Electric
Investment USD231mn
Investment USD3.3bn
Capacity 1 MMTPA
Capacity 1-3 MMTPA
Operation year 2022-2023
Operation year 2027
Status Under construction
Status Under construction
Power plants to Hiep Phuoc 1 and 2. Genco 3’s
Power plants to supply Long An I and II supply power plants.
Source: Vietnam’s Gas Master Plan, Vietnam’s Power Development Plan VIII, public media, Vietcap 31
GAS – Low volume and challenges to LNG to weigh on earnings
Rating* MARKET PERFORM (VND bn) 2022 2023 2024F 2025F

GAS VNI
Share Price (Feb 20) VND78,600 Revenue 100,724 86,614 83,797 94,413 YTD
Target Price (TP)* VND80,800 %YoY 27.5% -14.0% -3.3% 12.7%
NPAT-MI 14,798 11,606 10,557 11,990 1Y
% YoY 70.6% -20.7% -9.0% 13.6%
Upside to TP +2.8% EPS % YoY 70.6% -20.7% -9.0% 13.6%
3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 3.8% GPM 21.2% 19.6% 19.7% 20.7%
TSR +6.6% NPM 14.7% 13.6% 12.6% 12.7%
ROE -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
26.7% 18.9% 15.9% 17.0%
Industry Utilities Net D/E -47.1% -40.0% -36.3% -17.9% Company Overview
Market Cap USD7.3bn Dividend yield 5.5% 3.8% 3.8% 6.4% GAS is the monopoly operator of gas transporting &
Foreign Room USD3.3bn P/Op CF 14.5x 21.6x 11.0x 12.2x trading in Vietnam. It provides input feedstock for
P/E 12.4x 15.7x 17.4x 15.4x 100% of gas thermal power plants, 70% of urea
ADTV30D USD2.4mn
production and 100% of industrial parks in the
State Ownership 96% P/B 3.0x 2.8x 2.7x 2.5x
country. GAS has 70% market share in the LPG
Outstanding Shares 2.3 bn EV/EBITDA 8.6x 11.2x 10.5x 9.8x wholesale business. It aims to supply liquefied
Fully Diluted Shares 2.3 bn * TP and rating last updated December 28, 2023 natural gas (LNG).
GAS holds a 70% market share in Vietnam’s LPG wholesale industry; in-house LPG production capacity expansion will enhance
earnings. Capacity nearly doubled from 300,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) to 500,000 TPA in early 2018 due to the operation of the Ca Mau
gas processing plant.
Despite short-term headwinds, we believe GAS will continue to expand the Thi Vai LNG Terminal with Phases 2 & 3 and execute the
Son My LNG terminal to supply feedstock for new power plants including Nhon Trach 3 & 4, Long An, and Son My. Together with volume
from Block B and White Lion Phase 2B gas fields, this should help to double sales volume in 2023-2028F. We forecast GAS to deliver a 10-
year EPS CAGR of 10%.
We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decline 9% YoY based on a flat YoY FO price assumption, 3% YoY lower gas volume, a loss from the Thi Vai
LNG terminal with nominal volume of 50 million cbm (vs 650 million cbm previously assumed), and a higher weighted average input gas
price.
GAS has a strong financial capacity, with a net debt-to-equity ratio of -53.6% at the end of Q3 2023 (outperforming its regional peers)
and a projected return on equity of 15.9% for 2024.
However, we view GAS’s valuation as fair at a 2024F projected P/E of 17.4x vs the five-year average P/E of its regional peers of 16.4x.
Upside potential: Higher-than-expected cash dividends, higher-than-expected LPG volume.
Downside risk: Lower-than-expected FO price.
32
DPM & DCM earnings to recover in 2024 after plunging in 2023
33
Urea sector - Marginally lower urea price outlook in 2024
• We forecast the average Middle East urea price for 2024F at USD350/tonne (-2.2% YoY). We expect potential higher urea exports
from the EU (based on the International Energy Agency’s forecast for an 11% lower EU gas prices YoY).
• We forecast an average Middle East urea price of USD343/tonne in Q1 2024 (-8% YoY) and USD355/tonne in Q2 2024 (+15% YoY).
In our view, the drivers for higher international urea prices in Q2 2024 vs Q1 2024 should be ongoing China’s urea export restrictions
announced in September 2023 which should reduce its export YoY), tight supply from Indonesia, as well as the Agriculture price index
remaining high (46% higher vs pre-Covid 19).
• We assume premiums of 10%/17% for DPM/DCM’s urea ASPs vs the average Middle East urea price for 2024-2028F.
Global urea price movements
Source: Bloomberg, Vietcap 34

DPM – 2024F NPAT to recover due to lower gas price, NPK
segment
Rating* MARKET PERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Share Price (Feb 20) VND34,750 Revenue 13,569 13,841 14,258 13,830 YTD DPM VNI
Target Price (TP)* VND30,300 %YoY -27.2% 2.0% 3.0% -3.0%
NPAT-MI 533 663 1,448 1,302
1Y
% YoY -90.4% 24.4% 118.5% -10.1%
Upside to TP -12.8% EPS % YoY -90.4% 24.4% 118.5% -10.1%
Dividend Yield 8.6% GPM 12.2% 13.3% 19.7% 18.6% 3Y ann.
TSR -4.2% NPM 3.9% 4.8% 10.2% 9.4%
ROE 4.2% 5.8% 12.5% 11.0% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Industry Agrochemicals Net D/E -58.2% -59.0% -61.2% -62.2%
Market Cap USD557mn DPS (VND) 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 Company Overview
Dividend yield 5.8% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% DPM is the leading urea producer in Vietnam with
Foreign Room USD208mn
~35% market share. The company also trades other
ADTV30D USD2.6mn P/E 31.9x 25.7x 11.7x 13.1x
fertilizers, including NPK, SA and DAP. DPM owns the
State Ownership 59.6% P/B 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x Phu My urea plant (capacity of 800,000 tonnes), an
Outstanding Shares 391.4 mn EV/EBITDA 10.2x 7.6x 3.6x 3.9x NPK-NH3 plant (capacity of 250,000 tonnes) and a
Fully Diluted Shares 391.4 mn * TP and rating last updated February 7, 2024 distribution network of 3,000 points of sale.
DPM is the leading urea producer in Vietnam. It has trusted brand names such as Premium Phu My urea or Phu My NPK. DPM also has a
strong distribution network with over 30 warehouses and 3,000 points of sale nationwide.
The urea market is saturated, but DPM has growth potential from its new combined NH3-NPK plant. Vietnam is the world’s third largest
rice exporter, leading to stable urea demand growth of 2% p.a. and ensuring stable urea sales volume of 800,000 tonnes p.a. (at a 100%
utilization rate) for DPM. Furthermore, as the urea market starts to constrict, DPM can find potential earning opportunities as it shifts focus
and produces more NPK fertilizer. NPK fertilizer has advantages over urea because it has 1) higher growth (6-7% p.a. vs urea market growth
of 2%), per AgroMonitor, 2) wider applications (rubber, cashews, pepper and fruits, among other crops) vs urea (mostly rice) and 3)
Vietnam is still importing high-quality fertilizer (~10% of total NPK demand). We expect the combined NH3/NPK to contribute 31% of DPM’s
net profit in 2022-2028F on average.
A solid dividend play given DPM’s strong financial capacity. DPM has a strong financial profile with net cash of VND6.6tn (USD272mn)
and a net debt/equity ratio of -58.2% as of end 2023, which should help the company to offer robust and sustainable cash dividends of
VND3,000/share (6%-9% yield) in 2024-2028F.
DPM’s valuation looks fair, in our view, with projected 2024 EV/EBITDA of 7.6x vs the five-year average EV/EBITDA of its regional peers
at 6.5x.
Upside potential: Higher-than-expected dividend payout; urea becoming eligible for input VAT deductions.
Downside risks: Higher FO/domestic gas prices; potential of El Niño weighing on DPM’s domestic sales volume in 2024.
35
DCM – NPK expansion to boost earnings over the long term

Share Price (Feb 20) VND34,250 Revenue 12,602 14,190 15,011 15,232 YTD DCM VNI
Target Price (TP)* VND35,000 %YoY -20.9% 12.6% 5.8% 1.5%
NPAT-MI 1,107 1,689 2,007 1,107
1Y
% YoY -74.3% 52.6% 18.8% -74.3%
Upside to TP +2.2% EPS % YoY -74.3% 52.6% 18.8% -74.3%
TSR +10.9% NPM 8.8% 11.9% 13.4% 12.5%
ROE 10.7% 16.4% 18.5% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Industry Agrochemicals Net D/E -97.1% -82.8% -78.9% -75.8%
Market Cap USD743mn DPS (VND) 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 Company Overview
Foreign Room USD274mn Dividend yield 5.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% DCM is one of the two largest urea producers in
ADTV30D USD5.0mn P/E 17.8x 11.7x 9.8x 10.4x Vietnam and has ~32% market share. DCM owns a
State Ownership 75.6% P/B 1.8x 1.7x 1.6x 1.6x urea plant with an annual capacity of 800,000
Outstanding Shares 530.0 mn EV/EBITDA 4.8x 5.5x 4.5x 4.8x tonnes of granular urea and an NPK plant with a
capacity of 300,000 tonnes.
Fully Diluted Shares 530.0 mn * TP and rating last updated February 7, 2024
DCM has a strategically located urea plant, trusted brand name, high-quality products. DCM is located in the Mekong Delta which helps in the quality of its
urea products. DCM’s urea price has caught up with DPM’s urea price and above DPM’s price in 2023.
Stable domestic urea demand, rising export potential. For 2024, we forecast DCM sales volume to be relatively flat YoY at 850,000 tonnes and expect domestic
and export volume to rise 5% YoY and fall 30% YoY, respectively, to continue to normalize after robust export growth in 2022 and gradual recovery in 2023. These
factors should support a stable urea sales volume of ~860,000 tonnes p.a. on average (~119% utilization rate) for DCM in 2023-2028F.
DCM plans to complete the acquisition of a 100% stake of Korea-Vietnam Fertilizer Co., Ltd. (KVF) to more than double its NPK capacity to 660,000 TPA in
early 2024. DCM estimated the acquisition price at USD25mn vs its investment capital of USD60mn, which is a good price as per DCM’s management because it
includes 8.7 ha of land bank. DCM targets to increase KVF’s sales volume to 150,000 tonnes and help turn it profitable at the end of 2024. In addition, the area of
KVF’s NPK plant is used as a storage warehouse for raw materials. We estimate this new subsidiary to generate nominal profit in 2024 but contribute ~VND179bn
p.a. over the 2024-2028 period, ~10% to DCM’s earnings. We forecast DCM’s NPK sales volume to increase 52% YoY in 2024 to 210,000 tonnes after delivering 72%
YoY growth in 2023.
We forecast DCM’s NPAT-MI to jump 53% YoY in 2024, driven by a 1% increase in urea ASP and a plunge in depreciation expenses to outweigh our estimated 1%
YoY increase in input gas prices and a 2% YoY decrease in urea sales volume.
DCM’s financial capacity is strong with net cash of VND10.5tn (USD430mn) and a net debt/equity ratio of -97.1% as of end-2023. In addition, we forecast 2024-
2028F DPS of VND2,000-3,000 (6.1%-9.1% yield).
DCM’s valuation looks attractive at projected 2024F EV/EBITDA of 5.5x, representing a 16% discount vs the five-year average EV/EBITDA of its regional peers
(6.5x).
Upside potential: Higher-than-expected dividend payout; resumption of State divestment; urea becomes eligible for input VAT deductions.
Downside risks: Higher-than-expected fuel oil prices and gas input costs; potential of El Niño weighing on DCM’s domestic sales volume in 2024.
36
Vietnam has strong demand for petroleum products
37
Vietnam's petroleum consumption set for continued growth in
2024 with sufficient supply
• In 2023, we estimate Vietnam’s petroleum consumption to continue to • For the long-term, we project Vietnam’s petroleum consumption to
grow at a CAGR of 4.1% in 2023-2028F, four times the IEA’s projected
grow by 4.5% YoY, despite the 2022’s high base. Meanwhile, PLX recorded
global growth rate. The key underlying driver is (1) a significant
a slightly decrease 1% YoY in domestic sales volume, driven by 15% YoY
increase in vehicles in operation , and (2) a shift from motorbikes to
drop in wholesale and industrial client sales, which outweigh 7% YoY automobiles further boosts petroleum consumption per vehicle.
increase in retail sales.
• For 2024, we expect Vietnam’s petroleum consumption to grow by

4.1% YoY, driven by economic recovery. We also expect a stable
petroleum supply in 2024 thanks to (1) Nghi Son Refinery operating
normally during Binh Son Refinery conducting maintenance in early 2024
and (2) relatively stable imported petroleum prices.
Vietnam’s petroleum consumption and PLX’s domestic volume Vietnam’s petroleum consumption forecasts (million tonnes)
growth (%)
Refined product production Refined product net imports
Vietnam's petroleum consumption growth
30
PLX's domestic volume growth 24.1 30
25
25.1
24.1
20 25 22.2 23.1
15.6 20.5 21.3
19.6
15 20 18.4 22% 25%
17.0 26% 39%
20%
10 7.2 6.2 7.3 27% 26%
4.4 5.2 4.8 5.5 4.5 4.1 4.1 15 37% 21%
5 3.1
0 10
80% 74% 78% 75%
79% 73% 74% 61%
-5 -1.0 63%
5
-5.3-5.0
-10 -7.8-7.2
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Source: Vietcap estimates, MoIT, BSR, PLX. Note: (*) Vietcap’s
Source: Vietcap estimates, MoIT, BSR, PLX, IEA.
estimates based on production, imports and export numbers from
the MoIT and General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO).
38
USD19bn oil refinery complex and national oil reserve confirm
Vietnam’s near-term demand for petroleum products
• In Q3 2022, PetroVietnam (PVN) submitted a proposal to the MoIT for a USD19bn investment in a refinery, petrochemical
complex, and a national reserve of crude oil and petroleum products in the Long Son Oil & Gas Industrial Park in Ba Ria - Vung
Tau Province. In H1 2023, the MoIT stated that PVN’s proposal is reasonable due to strong domestic demand as well as the
necessity of national energy security (given the risk of supply shortages and volatility of the global economy).
• Despite the increasing popularity of electric vehicles (which weigh on petroleum demand), domestic petroleum consumption
was 18 million tonnes in 2020 and is expected to reach approximately 25 million tonnes in 2025 and up to 33 million tonnes by
2030, according to PVN. Meanwhile, the current domestic petroleum supply is around 12.2 million tonnes. As a result, the
current domestic production can only meet about 70% of domestic demand, followed by 40% and 20% in 2030 & 2045,
respectively.
• PVN’s forecast for 2030F petroleum consumption demand is equivalent to 121% of our forecast. This reinforces our expectation
for Vietnam to experience strong petroleum consumption growth over the next five years.
• PVN expects to receive the project’s investment decision approval in Q1 2024. Subsequently, PVN will select the engineering,
procurement and construction (EPC) contractors between January 2024 to December 2027.
• This project is comprised two parts: 1) a petrochemical and refinery plant project and 2) national storage for crude oil and
petroleum products.
• In the first phase, the petrochemical and refinery plant will have a processing capacity of 12-13 million tonnes of crude oil p.a.,
along with 7-9 million tonnes of petroleum products and 2-3 million tonnes of petrochemicals each year. In the second phase,
the plant will undergo additional investments to raise its petroleum and petrochemical outputs by 3-5 million tonnes and 5.5-
7.5 million tonnes, respectively.
• For the national reserve, it will be built to have a storage capacity of one million tonnes of crude oil and 500,000 cbm of
petroleum products each year.
39
PVT – Further significant fleet expansion to drive earnings growth
Rating* BUY (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

YTD PVT VNI
Share Price (Feb 20) VND27,150 Revenue (VND bn) 9,487 11,686 11,688 13,078
Target Price (TP)* VND31,200 % YoY 5% 23% 0% 12%
NPAT-MI (VND bn) 980 1,222 1,386 1,608 1Y
% YoY 14% 25% 13% 16%
Upside to TP +14.9% EPS reported % YoY 14% 25% 13% 16% 3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 3.7% EPS recurring % YoY 35% 37% 14% 16%
TSR +18.6% GPM 19.5% 21.7% 21.8% 21.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
NPM 10.3% 10.5% 11.9% 12.3%
Company Overview
Industry Oil & Gas ROE 14.6% 15.3% 15.3% 15.7%
PVT is the largest oil transporter in Vietnam and holds a
Market Cap USD364mn Net D/E 19.8% 2.5% -9.1% -29.7%
major market share for the crude oil transportation of
Foreign Room USD129mn Dividend yield 1.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Binh Son Refinery (BSR) (312,800 DWT), 30% for oil
ADTV30D USD3.0mn P/E Reported 9.4x 7.5x 6.6x 5.7x products & chemical (446,000 DWT), 100% for liquefied
State Ownership 51.0% P/B 1.2x 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x petroleum gas (152,000 DWT), 10% for coal
Outstanding Shares 323.7 mn EV/EBITDA 4.3x 2.9x 2.6x 2.0x transportation (206,300 DWT) and 10% for floating oil
Fully Diluted Shares 323.7 mn * TP and rating last updated February 5, 2024 storage (FSO).
Crude transportation for BSR and float storage (FSO) segment provides stable profitability. PVT hold a 50-70% market share for crude oil
transportation for Binh Son Refinery, which accounts for around 30% of PVT’s net profit. PVT also holds a 10% market share for FSO, with long-term
contracts of seven to 10 years, which contribute 15% to PVT’s net profit.
Fleet capacity expansion to boost earning growth. In 2023, PVT increased its fleet capacity by 67%, 57%, and 38% for oil product/chemical tanker, LPG
carrier, and dry bulk carrier, respectively, by acquiring seven new tankers, the highest expansion in the past five years. PVT plans to further increase
capacity in 2024 (three to five new tankers). These could enable PVT to secure more higher-value added customers in the overseas market.
We forecast a 2023-2026F recurring EPS growth of 22%, driven by further growth in global tonne-miles demand and PVT’s 35% YoY total fleet capacity
growth in 2023 and further fleet growth in 2024-2025, which will boost PVT's transport volume across all segments.
Tanker rates to remain strong in 2024, to be flat YoY but ~2x of pre-Covid 19 level (2017-2019).
We forecast 2024F recurring NPAT-MI growth by 37% YoY, which is mainly due to full-year contributions from seven new vessels acquired in 2023,
supported by a positive tanker market outlook. Meanwhile, we forecast 2024F reported NPAT-MI to grow 25% YoY to VND1.2tn, primarily due to no one-off
profit as in 2023F.
PVT’s valuation looks attractive with 2024F EV/EBITDA of 2.9x lower than 55% its five-year median of our selected regional peers. Projected 2024
P/E and P/B are at 7.5x and 1.0x.
Upside potential: Higher-than-expected fleet expansion. PVT aims to further increase capacity in 2024, planning to acquire about three to five new
tankers with a capex of VND3.4tn (~3x our assumption).
Downside risks: Lower-than-expected tanker rates and a higher-than-expected depreciation expense.
40
Expecting tanker rates to remain high in 2024 as tonne-miles
demand growth still outpaces tanker supply growth
We expect the crude tanker rate to stay high in 2024, as the We expect the oil product tanker rate to be resilient in 2024, as
supply and demand gap widens further. Based on BIMCO and the tight market remains intact. Based on BIMCO and Clarkson’s
Clarkson’s November 2023 forecast, the tonne-miles demand for November 2023 forecast, the tonne-miles demand for oil products
crude oil is set to grow by 4.5% YoY in 2024 (-1.5 ppts from August is set to grow by 5.5% YoY in 2024 (unchanged from the August
2023 forecast), while the tanker supply growth is limited at 0.7% 2023 forecast), while the tanker supply growth is limited at 1.9%
YoY in 2024 (+0.3 ppts from the August 2023 forecast). These YoY in 2024 (+0.6 ppts from the August 2023 forecast). These
factors imply a wider supply and demand gap in 2024 than in 2023. factors imply a wider gap between supply and demand in 2024
Therefore, we expect crude tanker rates to remain high in 2024 compared to 2023. Therefore, we expect oil product tanker rates
(flat YoY) before declining by 5% in 2025 from 2023’s high base. to remain high in 2024.
Crude oil trade supply and demand Oil product trade supply and demand
1,000 8.0% 10% 1,000 15%

900 8% 900 9.0%
5.0% 10%
800 4.5% 6% 800
5.0% 5.5% 5.5%
700 6.5% 700
4% 5%
600 600 6.5%
4.0% 4.2% 2%
0.0% -1.0% 4.0%
500 -1.0% 500 0%
1.8% 0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%
400 1.4% 400
0.7%
-2% -5%
300 300
-10.0%
200 -4% 200
-7.0% -10%
100 -6% 100
413 429 436 454 462 465 168 175 178 181 184 188
0 -8% 0 -15%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Crude tanker supply (million DWT) - LS Product tanker supply (million DWT) - LS
Crude tanker supply growth - RS Product tanker supply growth - RS
Crude trade demand (tonne-mile) growth - RS Oil product trade demand (tonne-mile) growth - RS
Source: BIMCO, Clarksons Shipping Intelligence Network, PVT, Vietcap 41

Mismatch between oil supply and demand between regions
supports long-term growth in tonne-mile demand
Asia Pacific spearheads robust growth in global oil demand. Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil supply growth is mainly from the
According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will Americas, which we expect to support tonne-miles demand until
increase by 5.9 mb/d from 99.8 mb/d in 2022 to 105.7 mb/d in 2028. 2028. IEA expects that supply will have continuous growth to meet
Non-OECD countries will account for most of this growth, especially rising oil demand. However, the supply of oil is not evenly distributed
Asia Pacific, which will see a rise of 5.5 mb/d from 2022 to 2028 across the world, creating a mismatch between the regions of
(representing about 72% of the oil demand growth). production and consumption. The main sources of oil supply growth
are the Americas, which will increase by 4.3 mb/d from 2022 to 2028
(representing about 90% of the non-OPEC+ supply growth).
Global cumulative oil demand growth by region, 2022-2028 (mb/d) Non-OPEC cumulative oil supply growth by region, 2022-2028 (mb/d)
108 Decrease Increase 66 Decrease Increase
106 65
0.5 0.3 0.5
0.2
64
104 1.8 0.9
5.5 63
102
62
100 0.1 2.5
0.8 105.7
1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 61
63.3
98
60
99.8
96 59 60.4
94 58
Central and South America
Central and South America

Europe
Europe
2022
Middle East
2022
Middle East
North America
North America
Eurasia
Eurasia
2028F
2028F
Africa
Asia Pacific
Africa
Asia Pacific
Source: IEA, Vietcap 42
PLX – Volume recovery to support 2024F earnings

YTD PLX VNI
Target Price (TP)* VND37,000 % YoY -10% -10% -5% 4%
NPAT-MI (VND bn) 2,812 3,593 3,823 4,491 1Y
% YoY 94% 28% 6% 17%
Upside to TP +2.5% EPS % YoY 94% 28% 6% 17% 3Y ann.
TSR +8.0% NPM 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
ROE 9.9% 11.8% 11.7% 13.1% Company Overview
Industry Petroleum Net D/E -27.1% -33.2% -33.7% -38.0% PLX is the leading player in Vietnam’s petroleum
Market Cap USD1.9bn Dividend yield 2.8% 5.5% 8.3% 8.3% distribution sector and has a 50% market share. It has
Foreign Room USD0.6bn DPS (VND) 1,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 2,700 COCO stations (company-owned company-
ADTV30D USD0.8mn P/E 18.0x 14.1x 13.2x 11.2x operated, retail sales) and 2,800 DODO stations
State Ownership 75.9% P/Op CF 7.8x 11.5x 13.2x 8.0x (dealer-owned dealer-operated, wholesale). Other
segments include petrochemicals (lubricants and
Outstanding Shares 1.27 bn EV/EBITDA 9.1x 7.4x 6.7x 6.0x
asphalt), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distribution,
Fully Diluted Shares 1.27 bn * TP and rating last updated February 7, 2024 petroleum transportation, and insurance.
PLX leverages Vietnam's petroleum consumption growth with its nationwide distribution network. We estimate Vietnam’s petroleum
consumption to grow at a CAGR of 4.2% in 2023-2028F, which is nearly four times the IEA’s projected global growth rate. The key underlying
drivers are a shift from motorbikes to automobiles. We expect numbers of automobile CAGR of 18% in 2023-2028F (vs 12% CAGR in 2017-
2022). We attribute these factors to support PLX's long-term earnings growth, as we believe PLX has a competitive edge in petrol
distribution in Vietnam, with a 50% market share, a nationwide distribution network, and the largest storage capacity.
Integrated retail store model could be driver of long-term upside. PLX can tap into non-oil services (convenience store/cafeteria/car
wash) at its 2,700 owned stations to boost its revenue and margin. PLX is testing automatic car washes/car maintenance at its stations with
the guidance of its strategic partner ENEOS Corporation (Japan).
We forecast 2024F reported NPAT to grow by 28% to VND3.6tn due to (1) a 4% YoY increase in domestic sales volume, and (2) a 4% YoY
increase in gross profit per liter, supported by full year effect of 3% higher regulated costs (effective early July 2023).
PLX’s valuation looks attractive with a 2024F P/E of 14.1x, 30% lower than its historical five-year P/E.
We expect PLX to raise cash dividends to VND2,000/share in 2024 and VND3,000/share in the long term.
Upside potential: higher-than-expected profit per liter following Decree 80.
Downside risks: lower-than-expected DPS, policy risk; adversely volatile oil prices, higher-than-expected SG&A.
43
BSR – Market stays tight but valuation looks full

YTD BSR VNI
Target Price (TP)* VND19,600 % YoY -12% -15% 3% 0%
NPAT-MI (VND bn) 8,511 6,815 6,274 3,906 1Y
% YoY -42% -20% -8% -38%
Upside to TP -0.5% EPS % YoY -42% -20% -8% -38% 3Y ann.
TSR +3.0% NPM 5.8% 5.4% 4.9% 3.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
ROE 15.7% 11.5% 9.8% 5.9%
Industry Refining Net D/E -47.4% -35.2% -33.7% -29.2%
Market Cap USD2.5bn Dividend yield 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% Company Overview
Foreign Room USD1.2bn DPS (VND) 700 700 700 700 Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical JSC (BSR) was
ADTV30D USD3.9mn P/E 7.2x 9.0x 9.7x 15.6x established in 2008. It runs the Dung Quat refinery,
which was Vietnam’s first refinery. BSR began operation
State Ownership 92.0% P/B 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x
in 2009, has a capacity of 6.5 million tonnes per year,
Outstanding Shares 3.1 bn EV/EBITDA 3.3x 4.5x 4.7x 7.2x
and serves around one-third of the domestic market.
Fully Diluted Shares 3.1 bn * TP and rating last updated February 7, 2024
A leader in the context of Vietnam is thirsty for refined products. BSR is a dominant player in Vietnam’s petroleum sector, with a 33% market
share in the transportation fuel product segment (gasoline and diesel) and a 15% market share in the petrochemical products segment. BSR
benefits from Vietnam’s robust petroleum demand growth of 4.2% p.a. in 2023-2028F, which is nearly four times the IEA’s projected global growth
rate. The current domestic petroleum supply is about 12.2 million tonnes, which can only meet about 70%-80% of the domestic demand
(according to PVN). This will narrow down to 40% in 2030 and 20% in 2045, creating a huge opportunity for BSR to increase its sales volume.
We project a high gross refining margin (GRM) of USD8.1/bbl in 2024, due to the tight refining market. Based on the International Energy
Agency (IEA)’s January 2024 report, we project the gap between supply and demand of refined products to be 2.9 mb/d in 2024, which is still
significantly above the pre-pandemic level of 2.2 mb/d. We expect the GRM to normalize to USD5.4/bbl in 2025-2027F. We believe this GRM will
support sufficient cash flow over the next five years for an upgrade & expansion project (USD1.3bn) to increase its volume by 15% and BSR
maintain its dominant market share in Vietnam.
We forecast 2024F reported NPAT-MI to decrease 20% YoY to VND6.8tn due to (1) 15% YoY lower sales volume because of planned
maintenance (50 days, March & April), and (2) YoY lower crack spreads following 2022’s high base.
BSR’s valuation looks fair with a projected 2024F P/E of 9.0x, 13% higher than its historical six-year average.
Catalyst/Upside potential: Moving listing to HOSE; higher-than-expected cash dividends.
Downside risks: Adverse oil price movement pressuring the share price, spreads, and inventory provisions.
44
Power & Water Sector
February 2024
Duong Dinh
Associate Director
duong.dinh@vietcap.com.vn
+8428 3914 3588 ext.140
Linh Tran Phuoc Duong Thu Vo

Analyst Analyst Analyst
linh.tranthuy@vietcap.com.vn phuoc.duong@vietcap.com.vn thu.vo@vietcap.com.vn
+8428 3914 3588 ext.196 +8428 3914 3588 ext.135 +8428 3914 3588 ext.529
Power Sector
Renewable power: We expect a new pricing mechanism in 2024
47
Power Development Plan (PDP) VIII approved in May 2023
MoIT’s forecasts for Vietnam’s power capacity (MW)

(MW) 2020A 2025F 2030F 2035F 2040F 2045F 2050F • On May 15, 2023, the Prime
Onshore wind power 539 13,416 21,880 30,400 46,100 62,250 77,050 Minister approved Vietnam’s
Offshore wind power - - 6,000 18,000 45,500 79,500 91,500
PDP VIII for 2021-2030, with a
Solar power 16,491 17,891 20,591 56,866 94,866 135,824 189,294
vision to 2050.
Biomass, cogeneration & others 1,750 2,630 4,970 6,590 9,460 9,710 10,515
Hydropower 20,789 26,795 29,346 33,654 34,414 35,139 36,016 • PDP VIII guides for a total
Pump-storage hydropower & energy battery storage - 50 2,700 9,450 19,950 33,750 45,550 national installed capacity of
Gas-fired power (domestic gas) switching to use LNG 7,076 7,076 14,930 7,900 7,900 7,900 7,900
158 GW by 2030 – more than
Gas-fired power (domestic gas) switching to use LNG and - - - 7,030 7,030 -
hydrogen (*)
double 2020’s capacity.
Gas-fired power (domestic gas) to hydrogen - - - - - 7,030 7,030 • It also emphasizes a transition
LNG-fired power - 2,700 22,400 22,700 12,200
LNG-fired power (with hydrogen) - - - 2,700 13,200 21,900 4,500
to clean energy as renewable
LNG-fired power to hydrogen - - - - - 3,500 20,900 power (including hydropower)
Coal-fired power 19,825 28,757 30,127 23,137 15,337 3,635 - is targeted to account for up to
Coal-fired power (with biomass/ammoniac) (**) - - - 6,990 14,790 18,642 - 47% and 72% of total electricity
Coal-fired to biomass/ammoniac - - - - - 6,900 25,632 production by 2030 and 2050,
Oil-fired power 1,596 1,221 - - - - -
respectively.
Imported power 1,272 4,453 5,000 7,742 10,242 11,042 11,042
Flexible power plants - - 300 9,000 23,100 33,900 46,200 • Solar and wind power
Total installed capacity 69,338 104,989 158,244 242,159 354,089 470,622 573,129 capacity is guided to nearly
Five-year CAGR 8.7% 8.6% 8.9% 7.9% 5.9% 4.0% triple to ~50,000 MW
compared to 2020 and become
Vietnam’s power capacity breakdown by type
Vietnam’s biggest source of
2020 2030F
power by 2030 (31% of total
Coal-fired power with/to
7% 8% national installed capacity).
biomass/ammonia
19%
Gas-fired power with/to • Hydropower capacity will rise
29% 13% LNG/hydrogen ~40%.
24% LNG-fired power with/to hydrogen
9% • Gas and LNG-fired capacity will
Hydropower increase 5x to ~37,000 MW.
1% 18%
10%
Wind power Coal-fired • capacity will
14% increase by 50% to ~30,000
Solar power
MW. PDP VIII aims that coal-fired
30% 19%
Others plants should end their
operations after 40 years of
technical life and perform
Source: MoIT (official PDP VIII), Vietcap (* Hydrogen: An alternative fuel for natural gas; when burnedgradual
with oxygen for energy
transitions to using 48
generation, it only produces steam instead of carbon dioxide. (**) Biomass: Made of material from living organisms
biomass/ammonia such as plants,
animals and waste. Ammonia: A fuel that helps to reduce carbon emissions).
We expect the implementation plan for PDP VIII to be issued in
2024
• We expect the implementation plan for PDP VIII to be issued in 2024. The latest draft (November 2023) plans for POW’s Nhon
Trach 3 & 4 LNG-fired power plants (total capacity of 1,500 MW) to come online in 2024-2025 – sooner than our expectations. In
addition, the MoIT targets to bring the O Mon 2, 3 & 4 gas-fired power plants (total capacity of 3,150 MW and to use gas from Block B
gas fields) online by 2027 – in line with our expectations.
• The draft implementation plan of PDP VIII also provides the solar and wind power capacity planned for each province and region
by 2030. Central Vietnam accounts for over 51% and 42% of the total additional onshore and offshore wind power capacity by 2030,
respectively.
Additional solar and wind power capacity by 2030, by region

MW Rooftop solar Onshore Offshore
wind wind
Northern 927 3,816 2,500
Central 565 18,064 2,500
Northern-central 231 2,200 0
Central 168 1,900 500
Highlands 32 4,100 2,000
Southern-central 134 3,064 0
Southern 1,107 6,800 1,000
Total 2,600 21,880 6,000
Capex requirements for the power sector

USD bn 2021-2025 2026-2030
Power generation 48.1 71.7
Power transmission 9.0 5.9
Total 57.1 77.6
Source: MoIT (Draft implementation plan of PDP VIII (November 19, 2023)), Vietcap 49
Vietnam’s USD15.5bn action plan for Just Energy Transition
Partnership (JETP) officially announced at COP 28
• In December 2022, the Governments of Vietnam and countries in the International Partners Group (IPG), which includes the EU, UK,
Denmark, Norway, Germany, Italy, France, the US, Canada, and Japan, established JETP to assist Vietnam in its transition to clean
energy.
• According to JETP’s Resource Mobilization Plan, which was announced by Vietnam’s Prime Minister at COP 28 in December 2023, IPG
members will mobilize USD8.08bn of public financing (up from the initial commitment of USD7.75bn), which should offer more
attractive terms than Vietnam could secure in capital markets.
• In addition, leading financial institutions will mobilize at least USD7.75bn in private finance.
• The RMP sets three investment priorities: (1) power transmission grid projects, (2) projects on battery storage and pumped storage
hydropower plants, and (3) projects on offshore wind power development
• JETP’s minimum USD15.5bn action plan represents over 11% of the power sector’s capital requirements in 2021-2030 (USD134.7bn,
according to PDP VIII). We expect supportive policy actions and capital disbursements to start from 2024 to accelerate the
implementation of JETP.
Public financing commitments by IPG members to Vietnam’s JETP

Type USD mn
Grants 321.5
Concessional loans 2,712.6
Sovereign concessional loans 2,184.9
Non-sovereign concessional loans 527.7
Commercial Development Finance Institution (DFI) instruments 5,043.0
Commercial DFI equity 310.0
Commercial DFI guarantees 240.0
Commercial DFI loans 4,229.0
Commercial DFI to be defined 264.0
Total 8,077.2
Source: JETP RMP (December 2023), Vietcap 50

Sector recovery expected upon the release of new pricing
mechanism
• Vietnam’s renewable power sector faced short-term challenges in 2022-2023, primarily due to the lack of a new pricing mechanism.
• On January 7, 2023, the MoIT issued ceiling prices for transitional renewable power plants, which are 17%-29% lower compared to
the previous favorable FiTs. There are 85 transitional renewable power plants with a total capacity of 4,736 MW. Nearly half of this
capacity has finished construction but missed the FiT deadlines while the remainder is still under development.
• By November 10, 2023, 21 plants (1,201 MW in total) connected to the national grid at temporary prices, set at 50% of the ceiling
prices. Commercial operation for transitional renewable plants faces delays mainly due to paperwork complexities.
• Although the approval of PDP VIII in May 2023 was positive news for the renewable power sector, we believe a strong recovery
will only occur after the release of a new pricing mechanism. In early November 2023, the MoIT issued Circular 19/2023/TT-BCT on
the methodology to calculate prices for solar and wind power. Vietnam Electricity (EVN) requested the Electric Power Trading
Company (EPTC, wholly owned by EVN) to develop a price range for renewable energy.
Prices for transitional renewable power plants

Previous FiT @ VND/USD
Temporary tariff
Renewable power type Ceiling price (VND/kWh) 23,700 (central rate of
(VND/kWh)
State Bank of Vietnam)
Ground-mounted solar 592 1,185 1,680
Floating solar 754 1,508 1,823
Onshore wind 794 1,587 2,015
Offshore wind 908 1,816 2,323
Source: MoIT, public media, Vietcap 51

We expect a new pricing mechanism for renewable power in
2024
We anticipate new ceiling prices for renewable power in 2024, incentivizing investors beyond transitional plant rates. With a
projected 5% increase over transitional project prices, we estimate project IRRs at ~10%-12% for renewables, matching traditional power
sources' returns (including medium & large-scale hydropower and thermal plants).
Contracted Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) of traditional power vs FiT and new prices of renewable energy
(US cents/kWh)
Hydropower PPA 4.8

Coal-fired power PPA 7.9 IRR 10%-12%
Gas-fired power PPA 8.3
LNG-fired power PPA 10.0
Solar power FiT 1 9.4 IRR 15%-20%
Ground-mounted solar power FiT 2 7.1

Floating solar power FiT 2 7.7
Rooftop solar power FiT 2 8.4 IRR 12%-15%
Onshore wind power FiT 1 8.5
Offshore wind power FiT 1 9.8
Ground-mounted solar power prices 3 5.0 IRR 9%-10%

Floating solar power prices 3 6.4 (Transitional renewable power
Onshore wind power prices 2 6.7 projects)
Offshore wind power prices 2 7.7
Ground-mounted solar power prices 4 5.2 IRR 10%-12%

Floating solar power prices 4 6.7 (Completely new projects, assuming
Onshore wind power prices 3 7.0 5% higher prices vs those of
Offshore wind power prices 3 8.0 transitional renewable projects)
Source: EVN, Vietcap 52

We expect a competitive bidding/auction mechanism for
renewables
We also expect the Government to approve a competitive bidding/auction mechanism, which will potentially help to accelerate
investment in renewable energy, particularly wind power.
• Local governments will provide basic information about the project in the prefeasibility study, including capacity, potential land
clearance cost, and sun radiation/wind speed.
• Investors will submit an electricity selling price based on their estimation of the project’s investment costs and required return on
capital. Investors’ bid prices must not exceed the ceiling prices stipulated by the MoIT.
• The winner gets the right to develop the project and then negotiate with EVN to secure a fixed electricity selling price, which must
not exceed the winning bid’s price.
53
Direct PPA (DPPA) to accelerate investments into renewables
The latest draft DPPA (late October 2023) outlines two cases:
1. Case 1: Off-grid DPPA: Renewable power plants sell electricity directly to large end-users such as industrial parks and
manufacturing plants through their own transmission infrastructure. There is a sufficient legal framework for this case to work.
2. Case 2: Grid-connected, synthetic DPPA:
- Renewable power plants enter a forward contract, called a contract for difference (CfD) with large end-users at a price and
volume agreed by the parties (“CfD price and volume”). At the same time, renewable power plants secure a PPA with EPTC to sell
electricity in Vietnam’s competitive generation market (VCGM) at the spot price.
- Large end-users will buy electricity from EVN’s power trading companies at the spot price plus service fees (for transmission &
distribution, management of the competitive generation market, load dispatch center, etc).
- We note that EPTC/EVN will need to develop a legal framework for the calculations of the service charges under this draft DPPA
mechanism.
- If the CfD price is higher than the spot price, large end-users will make up for the difference at the actual volume consumed by the
user, and vice versa.
- Therefore, the effective price to large end-users under this DPPA mechanism is the CfD price + service fees, while the effective
price to renewable power plants is the CfD price.
We expect DPPA mechanisms to be issued in 2024 and piloted in 2025. Once it is in place, we believe that DPPA will help to accelerate
investments in renewable energy.
54
Draft DPPA mechanism, case 2
Contract for Difference (CfD)
If CfD price < spot price, power plant pays the

difference
Renewable power plant Large end-user
If CfD price > spot price, end-user pays the

difference
service fees
Spot price +
Spot price
Retail power
PPA agreement
Spot price + service fees (for transmission &

distribution, management of Vietnam’s
Competitive Generation Market (VCGM), etc)
EVN
Electricity retailer
(EPTC/NLDC)*
Electricity flow
Power agreement payment flow
CfD payment flow
Source: MoIT, Vietcap (*EPTC: EVN’s Power Trading Corporation, NLDC: National Load Dispatch Center) 55
Renewable power capacity expansion outlook of power
companies
Most companies under our coverage target large additional renewable power capacity, mainly wind power, via self-development, M&A,
and cooperation with partners. For example, we currently forecast REE and HDG to add about 450-500 MW of solar and wind power
capacity by 2027. REE, HDG, and PC1 have build-to-operate strategies while GEX has a build-to-sell strategy.
Renewable power (wind and solar) power capacity outlook of select stocks * (MW)
1,000
222
800
27
217
600
157 82
72 569
400
27
527 530
476 444 432 217
200 115 15
41 300
82 144 138 180
126 130
0 50
2022 2027F 2022 2027F 2022 2027F 2022 2027F 2022 2027F 2022 2027F
REE HDG PC1 GEX BCG GEG
Wind power Solar power Rooftop solar
Source: Listed companies, Vietcap forecast (*) We factor a portion of GEX’s future expansion plan which includes 800 MW by 56
2030
REE – Real estate sales, M&E earnings rebound to outweigh
lower power earnings in 2024
Share Price (February 20) VND58,800 Revenue 8,570 9,376 10,718 14,053 YTD REE VNI
NPAT-MI 2,188 2,296 2,729 3,422 1Y
% YoY -18.7% 4.9% 18.9% 25.4%
Upside to TP +9.5% EPS % YoY -18.7% 4.9% 18.9% 25.4%
43.3% 38.5% 39.1% 35.6% 3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 1.7% GPM
TSR +11.2% NPM 25.5% 24.5% 25.5% 24.4%
ROE 13.3% 12.6% 13.4% 14.9% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Industry Utilities Net D/E 31.7% 23.8% 20.9% 21.1% Company Overview
Market Cap USD983mn Dividend yield 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% REE is a holding company with three main business
Foreign Room USD0mn DPS (VND) 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 lines: power (nearly half of its total earnings),
ADTV30D USD1.4mn P/E 11.0x 10.5x 8.8x 7.0x mechanical and engineering (M&E) installation, and
State Ownership 0.0% P/B 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x office leasing. REE is a leading M&E player and
Outstanding Shares 409.7 mn EV/EBITDA 8.7x 8.9x 7.1x 5.6x possesses 145,000 sqm of office leasing space.
Other segments include water and real estate.
We view REE as one of the leading players in Vietnam’s green energy sector with strong financial capacity in a capital-intensive sector and profitable
projects supported by REE’s effective cost management.
We forecast its power capacity (adjusted for ownership) to jump 50% in the next 5 years, to ~1,500 MW, driven by wind and solar power.
Its office leasing NFA will increase 25% to ~182,000 sqm in Q1 2024F with the E-town 6 office tower. Additionally, we expect REE’s M&E segment to
benefit from public investments, especially the new Long Thanh International Airport.
We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to increase 5% YoY to VND2.3tn mainly due to (1) a jump in real estate earnings, (2) VND141bn net profit from M&E vs a
VND9bn net loss last year, and (3) 11% YoY higher earnings from office leasing with the commercial operation of E-town 6. These factors outweigh 20%
YoY lower NPAT-MI from the power segment, which is mainly due to lower profits from hydropower plants.
We forecast a 16% EPS CAGR in 2023-2026F that is driven by a 50% growth in capacity over the next five years (with an additional 350 MW of wind power
and 80 MW rooftop solar power) and the E-town 6 building entering operation in Q2 2024.
We find REE’s valuation attractive at a 2024F PER of 10.5x and implied 3-year PEG of 0.7.
Downside risk: Further provisions for bad debts for M&E in 2024.
Upside potential: Announcement of M&A deals, higher-than-expected hydropower earnings.
57
HDG – Real estate recovery to support earnings growth in
2024F
HDG VNI
Share Price (February 20) VND26,750 Revenue 2,882 3,173 4,829 7,184 YTD
NPAT-MI 712 829 1,323 1,907
1Y
% YoY -35.1% 16.5% 59.7% 44.2%
Upside to TP +12.9% EPS % YoY -35.1% 16.5% 59.7% 44.2%
GPM 59.5% 57.5% 55.7% 50.3% 3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 0.0%
TSR +12.9% NPM 24.7% 26.1% 27.4% 26.6%
ROE 12.6% 13.0% 18.1% 21.8% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Industry Power/Real estate Net D/E 65.5% 52.8% 86.6% 112.1% Company Overview
Market Cap USD335mn Dividend yield 0.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Founded in 1990 as a construction company under
Foreign Room USD103mn DPS (VND) 0 500 500 500 the Ministry of Defense, HDG is now a real estate
ADTV30D USD1.9mn P/E 11.8x 10.2x 6.4x 4.4x developer in Hanoi and HCMC and a sizable investor
State Ownership 0.0% P/B 1.4x 1.2x 1.0x 0.9x in Vietnam’s renewable energy space with 314 MW of
Outstanding Shares 305.7 mn EV/EBITDA 7.0x 6.6x 6.0x 5.8x hydropower, 82 MW of solar power and 50 MW of
wind power capacity as of end-2022.
Sizeable renewable energy developer with highly profitable projects. HDG possesses highly profitable renewable power plants (446 MW in total) with
equity IRRs ranging from 12% to 36% due to their good locations, modern technology, capex control and reasonable financing costs. HDG plans to add
~750 MW of wind power capacity in the coming years.
Reputable developer with existing 121-ha land bank. This land bank is in HCMC, Hanoi, Nha Trang and Laos. We forecast ~VND6.4tn of projected NPAT-
MI from real estate handovers in 2024-2028F.
We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to increase by 16% YoY mainly due to a jump in real estate sales as we expect HDG to launch the sales of Charm Villas –
Phase 3 in H2 2024.
We forecast a 37% EPS CAGR in 2023-2028F that is fueled mainly by real estate handovers and five new wind power projects (480 MW in total) entering
operation in 2025-2027.
In our view, HDG’s valuation looks attractive at a 2024F PER of 10.2x and implied PEG of 0.3 (based on our projected 2023-2028F EPS CAGR of 37%).
Downside risks: Slower-than-expected operation/launch of new projects, legal risk
Upside catalysts: Higher-than-expected selling price for Charm Villas; commercial operation of 7A wind farm – Phase 2 (21 MW) and new industrial park
business (~550 ha).
58
PC1 – Earnings set to jump YoY in 2024
Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2022 2023 2024F 2025F

8,358 7,803 10,429 11,423 YTD PC1 VNI
Share Price (February 20) VND28,800 Revenue
Target Price (TP)* VND28,000 %YoY -15.0% -6.6% 33.7% 9.5%
NPAT-MI 460 137 675 821 1Y
% YoY -33.8% -70.3% 392.7% 21.5%
Upside to TP -2.8% EPS % YoY -33.8% -70.3% 394.3% 21.5%
19.1% 20.2% 20.0% 19.3% 3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 0.0% GPM
TSR -2.8% NPM 5.5% 1.8% 6.5% 7.2%
ROE 9.4% 2.7% 12.3% 13.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Industry Power Net D/E 130.8% 118.7% 93.0% 126.6% Company Overview
Market Cap USD366mn Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% PC1 has 50 years of experience in erecting &
Foreign Room USD153mn DPS (VND) 0 0 0 1,000 installing power transmission lines & substations in
ADTV30D USD10.3mn P/E 21.0x 70.8x 14.3x 11.8x Vietnam. Its key businesses include 1) 350 MW of
State Ownership 0.0% P/B 1.8x 1.7x 1.6x 1.4x power generation capacity (200 MW hydropower &
Outstanding Shares 311 mn EV/EBITDA 10.5x 10.0x 8.1x 10.2x 150 MW wind power), 2) power-related construction,
and 3) residential & industrial real estate and
Fully Diluted Shares 311 mn * TP and rating last updated November 9, 2023.
minerals (10% and 7% of 2022 assets, respectively).
We believe that PC1 is one of the earliest beneficiaries of the implementation of PDP VIII, in particular investments in power transmission infrastructure from
2024 and investments in renewable power projects from 2025. PC1 expects to secure sizeable power construction contract from the extended national 500 kV line
3 project (total capex of VND22.4tn), which supports our 2024-2025F power construction revenue forecasts of VND5.0tn (+91% YoY) and VND6.0tn (+20% YoY),
respectively. In addition, its power construction segment’s backlog was VND4.2tn at end-2023 and PC1 expects to sign new contracts worth VND7.5tn in 2024.
PC1 possesses a sizeable renewable power portfolio of 320 MW, including 170 MW of hydropower and ~150 MW of wind power capacity that generate strong
cash flows with favorable tariffs. PC1 also targets to triple its wind power capacity in the long term.
PC1 is exposed to the residential & industrial real estate and mineral sectors with estimated earnings from these segments accounting for an average of ~31%
of PC1’s gross profit in 2023-2027. PC1 plans to expand its industrial real estate land bank by adding over 1,500 ha by 2033.
We previously projected 2024F reported NPAT-MI to surge nearly 4x YoY compared to 2023F’s low base, driven by a nearly doubling of the power construction
segment’s revenue, a VND107bn profit contribution from Western Pacific IP, the full-year operation of the nickel plant, and no forex loss.
We note that we see significant downside risk to our 2024F NPAT-MI forecast due to lower-than-expected 2023 result. This is due to the underperformance
of most segments, especially the nickel mining and power generation segments. According to PC1, it exported ~35,000 tonnes of nickel ore and recorded
VND722bn in revenue in 2023 vs our revenue forecast of VND937bn. We attribute the weak performance to lower accounting volume vs the exported volume as
well as significantly lower price vs market price (due to low quality of nickel products which do not meet the standards of PC1’s client).
59
GEX – Power divestment gain to boost 2024F earnings
Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2022 2023 2024F 2025F GEX VNI
YTD
Share Price (February 20 ) VND22,500 Revenue 32,089 29,998 32,395 35,210
Target Price (TP)* VND24,100 %YoY 12.3% -6.5% 8.0% 8.7%
1Y
NPAT-MI 369 331 1,380 831
% YoY -64.5% -10.3% 316.9% -39.8%
Upside to TP +7.1% EPS % YoY -69.8% -10.3% 317.1% -39.8% 3Y ann.
TSR +11.6% NPM 1.1% 1.1% 4.3% 2.4% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Industry Conglomerate Net D/E 65.0% 78.6% 39.5% 47.8% GELEX was privatized in 2015 and operates in two main
Dividend yield 0.0% 6.7% 4.4% 4.4% segments: electrical equipment manufacturing via 80%-
Market Cap USD784mn
stake GEE (which controls CAV (cables) and THI
Foreign Room USD303mn DPS (VND) 0 1,500 1,000 1,000 (transformers)) and infrastructure via 97%-stake GELEX
ADTV30D USD9.4mn P/E 52.4x 58.4x 14.0x 23.3x Infrastructure JSC, which holds a controlling stake in VGC
State Ownership 0.0% P/B 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x 1.7x (construction materials and industrial parks) and a 49% stake
in TITAN Corp (RBF/BTS warehouses). GEX has expanded into
Outstanding Shares 851 mn EV/EBITDA 5.9x -31.9x 5.1x 6.0x
power (245 MW) and clean water via Song Da Water (HSX:
Fully Diluted Shares 851 mn * TP and rating last updated November 20, 2023 VWC).
Implementation of PDP VIII to drive demand for electrical equipment. PDP VIII estimates the total capex requirement for the power sector is USD135bn
for 2021-2030 (USD120bn for power generation and USD15bn for power transmission). We expect GEX’s electrical equipment companies to benefit from
Vietnam Electricity (EVN)’s investments in upcoming power transmission & distribution projects.
We are also optimistic about GEX’s construction materials and industrial park earnings growth outlook as we expect (1) construction materials sales
to rebound as the real estate sector gradually recovers starting in 2024, and (2) VGC’s IP leasing & services segment to benefit from global
manufacturers’ ongoing relocation to Vietnam and strong FDI.
We previously projected 2024F reported NPAT-MI of VND1.4tn (+317% YoY) as we expect (1) sales of electrical equipment, construction materials, and
residential real estate to recover, (2) IP leasing & services to continue delivering strong revenue growth, and (3) a pretax profit of VND950bn from GEX’s
divestment of its renewable power portfolio. Meanwhile, we project GEX’s recurring NPAT-MI to rise by 25% YoY in 2024.
We note that we see downside risk to our 2024F reported NPAT-MI forecast due to weaker-than-expected 2023 result. This is mainly due to lower-
than-expected profit from IP leasing & services (VGC leased ~172 ha of IP land in 2023 vs our forecast of 209 ha) and higher-than-expected G&A expenses
caused by GEX’s allocation for scientific and technological fund in Q4 2023.
Upside potential: Contributions from TITAN Corp and further VGC residential projects.
Downside risks: Securities investment losses; weaker-than-expected real estate recovery.
60
TV2 – Renewable power sector recovery and USD1.1bn EPC
contract for Song Hau 2 to boost long-term earnings
Rating Not rated (VND bn) 2020 2021 2022 2023 TV2 VNI
YTD
Share Price (February 20) VND40,650 Revenue 3,346 3,629 1,322 1,061
Fair Value N/A %YoY 1% 8% -64% -20%
1Y
NPAT-MI 262 272 53 53
% YoY 3% 4% -81% 0%
Upside to FV N/A EPS % YoY 2% 3% -84% 0% 3Y ann.
Dividend Yield N/A GPM 12.8% 9.1% 14.1% 22.4%
TSR N/A NPM 7.8% 7.5% 4.0% 4.5% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Industry Power Net D/E -74.8% -26.2% -16.2% -4.9% TV2 is one of the top four power engineering
Dividend yield 0.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% consultancy companies in Vietnam. Established in
Market Cap USD112mn
1985 and starting off as a pure service-providing
Foreign Room * USD2.7mn DPS (VND) 0 1,000 1,000 1,000
company, TV2 has branched out into four main
ADTV30D USD0.9mn P/E 8.4x 8.1x 51.9x 51.8x businesses: power engineering consultancy, EPC
State Ownership 51.3% P/B 1.9x 1.6x 2.0x 2.1x contracting services, power plant operation &
Outstanding Shares 67.5 mn EV/EBITDA 4.4x 5.7x 25.0x 22.6x management (O&M) and financial investment in
Fully Diluted Shares 67.5 mn (*) FOL is 15% renewable power plants.
TV2’s key services are: (1) consultancy, (2) engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) contracting services, and (3) power plant operations &
maintenance (O&M), which together accounted for ~96% of TV2’s gross profit in 2022. In addition, TV2 has interests ranging from 10% to 100% in
renewable power projects with a total operating capacity (adjusted for ownership) of 34 MW and another 13 MW (adjusted for ownership) either under
construction or in the development pipeline at end-2022.
TV2 is a beneficiary of Vietnam’s robust capacity expansion to meet its resilient power demand and increased focus on renewable energy. With its
reputation as the leading power consultant and decent EPC contracting experience, we believe TV2 is a strong contender for upcoming EPC contracts in
renewable and LNG-fired power. We also expect TV2 to win major power consulting contracts for power transmission projects. It is the main consultant for
the extended national 500 kV line 3 project (total capex of VND22tn), and we estimate revenue to TV2 of VND300bn-VND400bn in 2024-2025.
We expect significant revenue and NPAT for TV2 from Song Hau 2 coal-fire power project (2,120 MW). In March 2023, TV2 and Sunway Construction
signed an EPC contract worth USD2.4bn (TV2’s portion is ~USD1.1bn) with Toyo Ink Group Berhad (Malaysia) – the investor of Song Hau 2. In late
November 2023, the Export-Import Bank of Malaysia Berhad agreed to be the exclusive lead arranger for a syndicated loan of up to USD2.42bn for Song
Hau 2. As long as the project obtains this loan agreement before the Government’s stated deadline of end-June 2024, the investor and EPC contractors
can proceed with construction. In addition, TV2 also won an O&M contract worth USD86mn per year from this project.
TV2 is trading at TTM P/B of 2.1x – ~40-50% lower compared to the median TTM P/B of selected peers.
61
Traditional power: High mobilization from coal-fired power in 2024
62
We forecast 2024F electricity consumption growth at 7.7% YoY
• We project 2024F electricity consumption growth at 7.7% YoY, based on our Macro team’s forecast for 2024F GDP growth at 6.5%.
• We estimate that Vietnam is likely to experience electricity consumption growth of ~9% p.a. in 2025-2027F, with assumptions
for Vietnam’s annual GDP growth rate at 6.8%/7.0% in 2025/26 (as forecast by our macro team) and at 6.5% in 2027 (as guided by the
MoIT) and our assumption for the elasticity ratio between GDP growth and electricity consumption growth at ~1.2x-1.3x (normalized
ratio).
Vietnam’s electricity consumption growth vs GDP growth*
Electricity consumption (billion kWh) Electricity consumption growth - RHS Real GDP growth - RHS
15.5%
500 16%
13.8%
450 7.4%
12.9% 14%
12.5% 7.4%
400 11.8%
11.4% 11.4% 11.5% 7.4%
8.7% 12%
10.5%
350 10.1% 8.7%
9.0% 9.3% 8.7%
8.9% 10%
300 7.7%
7.7% 4.8%
250 3.1% 3.8% 8%
200
6%
150
4%
100
2%
50
0 0%
2011
2015
2025F
2008
2009
2014
2010
2012
2016
2018
2019
2013
2017
2023F
2026F
2028F
2029F
2030F
2027F
2007
2021
2020
2022
2024F
Source: Vietnam Electricity (EVN), Vietcap (*The real GDP growth rates shown for 2024-2025F are Vietcap’s GDP growth 63
forecasts; numbers for 2026-2030F are based on the MoIT’s guidance).
El Niño to continue into 2024 with less severity
• El Niño weather conditions are expected to dominate until end-Q1 2024 with a probability of occurrence ranging from 75% to 100%
in January-March 2024 according to the weather forecast in February 2024 by the International Research Institute for Climate and
Society (IRICS). However, IRICS predicted the likelihood of El Niño would fall significantly afterwards, giving way to neutral weather
conditions.
Probability of El Niño as of February 2024
100%
90%
25% 26%
80%
70% 55%
68%
74% 77%
60% 79%
100%
50% 100%
40% 68%
75%
30%
42%
20%
30%
24% 20%
10% 19%
6%
0%
Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24
El Niño Neutral La Niña
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Vietcap 64

We forecast sufficient power for 2024 vs power shortage in
2023
• We believe power supply will be sufficient in 2024. In early December 2023, the MoIT issued Decision 3110 which guides for 2024 power supply of
306 billion kWh (+9% YoY). We believe this will be sufficient to meet power demand in 2024, which we forecast to grow by 7.7% YoY. We also
understand that the MoIT plans to mobilize significantly higher volume from coal-fired power plants (+25% YoY) while expecting lower mobilization
from gas-fired power (-14% YoY) and hydropower (-1% YoY) as well as roughly flat volume from renewable power.
• EVN forecasts a potential power shortage in June-July 2024 in the north ranging from 420 to 1,770 MW in this worst-case scenario, which is
only about a third of the power shortage in May-June 2023.
• The Government is pushing for the extended national 500 kV Line 3 to come online mid-2024. This line (from Quang Trach, Quang Binh Province
to Pho Noi, Hung Yen Province)will increase power transmission capacity from central Vietnam to northern Vietnam to 5,000 MW from 2,200 MW
currently.
Vietcap’s forecast of Vietnam’s power generation capacity (MW)
MW 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F
Hydropower 22,544 22,872 23,332 23,912
Coal-fired power 25,312 26,757 26,757 27,422
Gas-fired power 7,160 7,160 7,160 9,110
Solar power (farm) 8,736 9,115 9,235 9,235
Solar power (rooftop) 7,954 7,954 7,954 7,954
Wind power 3,980 4,802 6,802 8,802
Others 2,114 1,895 2,395 2,995
Total capacity 77,800 80,555 83,635 89,430
YoY growth 1.5% 3.5% 3.8% 6.9%
Subprojects of the extended 500 kV Line 3 project

Subproject Length (km) Capex (trillion VND)
Thanh Hoa – Nam Dinh 74 2.9
Nam Dinh – Pho Noi 124 5.5
Quang Trach – Quynh Luu 225 9.8
Quynh Luu – Thanh Hoa 92 4.1
Total 514 22.4
Source: MoIT, EVNNPT, Vietcap 65

PPA price mechanism
Revenue of a power plant = PPA * Qc + CGM price * non-Qc
= Contracted price/Fixed price * Contracted volume + CGM price * Non-contracted volume
PPA price formula based on Circular 56
Fixed Price Variable Price PPA price

(VND/kWh)
Fixed, O&M Regulated return Material Cost Transportation cost

Components (Gas/Coal)
• PPA contract: EVN and power plants negotiate many assumptions of a discounted cash flow model such as capex, capital structure,
and average utilization rate for the whole cycle of the project, among other factors, and then plug in PPA prices to derive a project IRR
of 10%-12%.
• Qc is guided to decline gradually to 60% of a power plant’s average volume of the project’s life cycle (~70% utilization rate for
thermal and ~40% utilization rate for hydro).
Source: MoIT, EVN, Vietcap 66

Average CGM price to increase 11% YoY in 2024
• We forecast 2024F average CGM price at VND1,551/kWh (+11% YoY) – close to the 2022 level due to our projected growth in
electricity consumption of 7.7% YoY (similar to growth in 2022 of 8% YoY) as well as projected higher gas prices in 2024 vs 2022.
• Our forecast implies a CAGR of 3% in average CGM prices for the 2023-2028F period, which is roughly in line with expected inflation.
Average CGM price outlook (VND/kWh)
SMP CAN CGM/FMP
1,800 1,676
1,607 1,604
1,539 1,551 1,542
1,600
330
1,396
330
330
1,400
330
330
379
1,208
301
1,200
1,046
141
1,030 1,001
1,000 886
857
214
188
147
806
64
800
129
676
638
179
1,343
1,276
1,273
1,221
1,212
97
1,160
600
1,096
1,068
179
854
841
823
831
400
727
627
579
459
200
-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
Source: MoIT, EVN, industry players, Vietcap. Note: CGM price = FMP (full market price) = SMP (system marginal price) + CAN 67
(capacity-add-on price). SMP: the highest auction price required to balance system supply and demand; CAN: the extra price
paid in order for the best new entrant power plant to break even.
Gas prices to increase, but coal prices should decline
For 2024F, we forecast feedstock cost of gas-fired power will increase ~5% YoY while we expect coal cost of coal-fired power plants
under our coverage (using mixed coal) to decline ~6% YoY, making coal-fired power more cost-competitive vs gas-fired power.
Vietcap’s forecast of Vietnam’s power generation capacity (MW)

VND mn/tonne 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Domestic coal, 5a (5,500 kcal/kg) 1,845 1,937 2,034 2,136 2,243 2,355
YoY growth 0% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Mixed coal, 5a equivalent (*) 2,825 2,583 2,420 2,382 2,247 2,436
YoY growth 38% -9% -6% -2% -6% 8%
Gas supply outlook for Vietnam’s southeastern region

(billion cbm) Newcastle thermal coal prices (6,000 kcal/kg) (USD/tonne)
Southeast Vietnam's gas price - LHS (USD/MMBTU) 500 Newcastle port thermal coal 6,000 kcal/kg
Average Brent crude price assumption - RHS (USD/bbl) 450
Annual averages
99 11.7 11.9 400
12 100
10.8 350
11 83 83 10.5 90
300
9.7 75 75 75 75 80
10 71 9.2 250
64 8.9 70 200
9
60 150
8 7.1
43 50 100
7 6.1 40 50
5.8
6 0
30
Jul-19
Jan-19
Jul-20
Jul-22
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jan-20
Jan-22
5 20
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F2025F2026F 2027F 2028F
Source: MoIT, EVN, GAS, industry players, Bloomberg consensus, Vietcap forecasts 68
Contracted volume (Qc) ratios for thermal power and
hydropower plants at 70% and 98% in 2024, respectively
• According to industry players, the contracted volume ratio for thermal power plants is guided at 70% for 2024, lower compared to
80% in previous years. This potentially creates more challenges for thermal plants, especially gas-fired power plants. In addition, the
contracted volume ratio for hydropower plants is guided at 98% compared to 90% in previous years, which potentially lowers the
profit of hydropower plants.
Contracted volume ratios (%, Qc)
Thermal power Hydropower

100%
95%
95%
90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
90%
85% 85%
85%
80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
80%
75%
70%
70%
65%
60%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F
Source: MoIT, industry players, Vietcap 69

We expect a 7% hike in retail electricity prices in 2024
• The MoIT approved a total retail electricity price increase of 7.5% in 2023 (3% in May and 4.5% in November) to a base price of
VND2,007/kWh or US8.3cents.
• We expect 7%/10% YoY price hikes in 2024/25F. We believe these are necessary to help EVN break even after its massive
cumulative loss in 2022-2023.
• The electricity price for businesses in Vietnam is ~38% below the average price in Southeast Asia (excluding Singapore),
suggesting further upside to prices in the coming years.
Electricity prices for businesses in selected countries
100,000 35
32.2
30
80,000
25
60,000 21.8
20
15.1 15.5 15
40,000
13
11.3 11.6
10
8.8
20,000 7.2 7.8
5
- 0
Indonesia Vietnam Malaysia Philippines Thailand Singapore China Taiwan India Japan
GDP per capita (USD, LHS) Electricity price for businesses (US cents, RHS)
Source: IMF, EVN, public media of mentioned countries, Vietcap (Electricity prices for businesses as of end-2023 for Vietnam and 70
March 2023 for all other countries. GDP per capita data as of 2023).
POW – Strong volume growth of Vung Ang & Ca Mau to outweigh
weak volume from NT2 in 2024
Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F POW VNI
YTD
NPAT-MI 1,075 1,213 3,148 3,585 1Y
% YoY -47.8% 12.9% 159.5% 13.9%
Upside to TP +5.9% NPAT-MI, Adjusted 1,061 1,102 3,148 3,585 3Y ann.
TSR +5.9% NPM 3.8% 3.8% 6.6% 6.1% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Industry Utilities Net D/E 3.5% 3.8% 9.2% 9.5% PV Power is the fourth-biggest electricity producer in
Market Cap USD1.1bn Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Vietnam. It possesses a 4.2 GW power portfolio, which is
Foreign Room USD513mn Adjusted P/E 27.7x 26.8x 9.3x 8.2x 10% of national capacity. Its strengths center on gas-
ADTV30D USD2.3mn Reported P/E 27.3x 24.2x 9.3x 8.2x fired power plants (Ca Mau plant – 1,500 MW, Nhon
State Ownership 80% P/B 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x Trach 1 – 450 MW and NT2 – 750 MW), which account for
Outstanding Shares 2,342 mn EV/EBITDA 6.6x 7.0x 3.8x 3.0x 64% of its total capacity. Coal thermal (Vung Ang –
Fully Diluted Shares 2,342 mn * TP and rating last updated February 5, 2024 1,200 MW) and hydropower (Hua Na – 180 MW and
Dakdrinh – 125 MW) make up the remaining capacity.
POW is the largest non-EVN electricity producer in Vietnam with a 4.2 GW portfolio. We view POW as a solid play on growth in Vietnam’s power
consumption and structural transition to LNG with its upcoming Nhon Trach 3 & 4 LNG-fired power plants targeted to come online in late 2024/mid 2025
(6-12 months earlier than our forecasts).
We forecast POW’s 2024F reported NPAT-MI to increase by 13% YoY, mainly driven by Vung Ang’s earnings expanding by 3x (based on its full-capacity
operation, expected high CGM prices in the north and our assumption for the plant to record a VND300bn insurance compensation in 2024 vs none in
2023), and Ca Mau’s earnings increasing by over 2x on strong YoY volume growth.
We project 2025F NPAT-MI to surge by 159% YoY, due to 34% YoY sales volume growth to 22.1bn kWh (equivalent to pre-Covid-19 levels, excluding
volume contribution from Nhon Trach 3), more than doubling YoY profit from Ca Mau with an estimated gas price ~10% lower than that of power plants in
the southeast, and 25% YoY higher profit from Vung Ang driven by robust power consumption growth in the north and lower maintenance expenses.
POW looks slightly attractive at a 2024F EV/EBITDA of 7.0x, ~30% lower vs regional peers and a 2024F P/E of 24.2x with implied PEG of 0.3 based on our
projected 2024-26 EPS CAGR of 72%.
Upside potential: Further FX loss compensation from Vietnam Electricity (EVN); higher-than-expected profit from NT2.
Downside risks: Sudden technical shutdowns; higher-than-expected maintenance costs; FX losses/cost overruns/delay of NT3 and NT4.
71
NT2 – Record low volume to pressure 2024 earnings
Rating* UNDERPERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

YTD NT2 VNI
Target Price (TP)* VND20,100 %YoY -27.4% -33.9% 111.9% 11.5%
NPAT-MI 496 -249 497 942 1Y
% YoY -43.9% N.M. N.M. 89.6%
Upside to TP -24.4% EPS % YoY -45.1% N.M. N.M. 89.6%
GPM 3Y ann.
Dividend Yield 3.8% 8.0% -6.6% 6.1% 11.3%
TSR -20.7% NPM 7.8% -5.9% 5.6% 9.4%
ROE 10.4% -6.0% 12.7% 22.3% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Market Cap USD313mn Dividend yield 5.6% 3.8% 7.5% 11.3% NT2 is one of the most modern and efficient gas
Foreign Room USD113mn DPS (VND) 1,500 1,000 2,000 3,000 thermal power plants in Vietnam and provides
ADTV30D USD0.9mn P/E 16.4x -31.9x 16.0x 8.4x approximately 4.5 billion kWh of electricity annually
State Ownership 60% P/B 1.8x 2.1x 2.0x 1.8x (~2% of the national power supply). The plant is in
Outstanding Shares 287.9 mn EV/EBITDA 7.7x 28.0x 7.2x 6.8x Dong Nai Province, which is an industrial & economic
Fully Diluted Shares 287.9 mn * TP and rating last updated January 23, 2024 hub of southeast Vietnam.
NT2 is one of the most modern and efficient gas thermal power plants in Vietnam and has a gas consumption per unit of power produced that is ~3%
lower than other plants.
In our February 2024 update report for NT2, we cut our aggregate 2024-2028F reported NPAT projection by 23%, primarily due to a substantial
reduction in our 2024F reported NPAT forecast from VND458bn previously to a net loss of VND249bn. This is mainly driven by our 49% cut in 2024F sales
volume forecast to 1.9 billion kWh (-33% YoY), following the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC)’s significantly low mobilization plan for NT2 (as per
industry players). Additionally, we cut our 2025F reported NPAT projection by 25%, which is primarily due to our 9% lower sales volume forecast following
the substantial reduction in our 2024F sales volume forecast.
NT2’s 2024/25F projected EV/EBITDA multiples of 16.0x/8.4x, respectively, look expensive vs the 4Y average median multiple of its peers at 6.6x. The
2024 implied dividend yield at our target price is 4%. We believe this should provide support for the share price, together with our forecasted strong
recovery in dividends for 2025F and 2026F.
Upside potential: Higher-than-expected sales volume/CGM price in 2024.
72
PPC – NPAT jump on generator reoperation, higher dividend
income
Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2022 2023 2024F 2025F
YTD PPC VNI
Target Price (TP)* VND15,400 %YoY 36% 10% 23% 0%
NPAT-MI 490 434 774 843 1Y
% YoY 127% -11% 78% 9%
Upside to TP +11.6% EPS % YoY 127% -11% 79% 9%
3Y ann.
TSR +26.1% NPM 9.3% 7.5% 10.8% 11.8%
ROE 9.9% 9.2% 14.3% 14.5% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Market Cap USD181mn Dividend yield 5.8% 3.6% 14.5% 18.1% PPC owns two coal-fired power plants in northern
Foreign Room USD66mn DPS (VND) 800 500 2,000 2,500 Vietnam with capacity of 1,040 MW: Pha Lai 1 (4x110
ADTV30D USD0.1mn P/E 9.4x 10.6x 6.0x 5.5x MW, 37 years old) and Pha Lai 2 (2x300 MW, 20 years
State Ownership 51% P/B 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x old). PPC also has respective 27% and 16% stakes in
Outstanding Shares 320.6 mn EV/EBITDA 13.1x -74.4x 6.6x 4.4x the Hai Phong (UPCoM: HND - 1,200 MW) and Quang
Ninh (UPCoM: QTP - 1,200 MW) coal-fired plants.
Fully Diluted Shares 320.6 mn * TP and rating last updated December 18, 2023
PPC and its associate companies are ideally located in Vietnam’s highest electricity consumption growth area and their assets are in good
conditions to benefit from EVN’s high mobilization from coal-fired power in 2024 as well as potentially high CGM prices in the north. Furthermore, all
three power plants are near Vietnam’s largest coal reserves and have favorable transportation costs.
We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI of VND774bn (+78% YoY) mainly because of higher projected dividend income from QTP & HND. The key underlying drivers
of growth in NPAT-MI in 2024 are (1) an increase in sales volume from the full-year operation of the S6 generator and (2) lower YoY material costs.
We project a 20% EPS CAGR in 2022-2025F driven by (1) higher utilization rates thanks to the re-operation of PPC’s S6 generator from September 2023,
driven by expected strong power consumption in northern Vietnam, (2) higher CGM prices, and (3) declining coal costs.
In our view, PPC’s valuation looks attractive with (1) a 2024F PER of 6.0x, which is 50% lower compared to the average 4Y median of our selected
regional peers, and (2) projected rising dividend yields.
Upside potential: Higher-than-expected cash dividends; removal from HSX’s warning list.
Downside risks: Technical generator issues; suspension for environmental pollution, PPA review
73
QTP – High availability factor to benefit from northern
Vietnam’s high power capacity utilization
Rating* Not rated (VND bn) 2022 2023 2024F 2025F QTP VNI
YTD
Fair Value* VND16,900 %YoY 23% 16% 0% 1%
NPAT-MI 764 614 902 1,007 1Y
% YoY 60% -20% 47% 12%
Upside to FV +11.9% EPS % YoY 37% -8% 47% 12% 3Y ann.
TSR +25.7% NPM 7.3% 5.1% 7.5% 8.3% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Industry Utilities Net D/E 4.8% 10.3% -14.9% -10.3% QTP owns two coal-fired power plants in Quang Ninh
Dividend yield 14.9% 10.6% 13.8% 14.6% province, northern Vietnam with a total capacity of
Market Cap USD278mn
1,200 MW: Quang Ninh 1 (2x300 MW, 14 years old) and
Foreign Room USD133mn DPS (VND) 2,250 1,600 2,086 2,200
Quang Ninh 2 (2x300 MW, 10 years old).
ADTV30D USD0.1mn P/E 10.7x 11.6x 7.9x 7.1x Shareholders include EVNGENCO1 (42.0%), PPC
State Ownership 64% P/B 1.1x 1.3x 1.1x 1.1x (16.4%), State Capital Investment Corporation
Outstanding Shares 450 mn EV/EBITDA 6.1x 7.4x 7.4x 6.5x (SCIC) (11.4%), Vinacomin Power Holding Corporation
Fully Diluted Shares 450 mn * FV last derived December 18, 2023 (10.6%) among others
Quang Ninh Thermal Power JSC’s (UPCoM: QTP) coal-fired power plants are young with high-quality Chinese turbines and a diverse shareholder
structure. We derive a fair value of VND16,900/share, implied TSR of 25.7% including a 13.8% dividend yield (see our PPC update, dated December 18, 2023).
Quang Ninh Province holds ~95% of Vietnam’s coal reserves. According to QTP, its power plants are not facing coal shortages in 2024 and beyond due to their
ideal location.
We anticipate QTP's 2024F NPAT-MI to rebound by 47% to VND902bn, recovering from a low base in 2023. The projected increase in 2024F NPAT-MI is primarily
supported by (1) an YoY increase in sales volume, (2) a 6% YoY reduction in coal costs, and (3) an estimated decline of VND300bn in depreciation expenses.
Sustainable high dividend yield. At QTP’s 2023 AGM, shareholders approved FY2023 cash dividends of VND1,000/share. We forecast QTP’s FY2023 cash dividend
at VND1,600/share as its actual dividends were 60% and 125% higher than its guidance over the past two years, respectively. We also expect QTP’s dividend
yields to rise as the company will pay off all long-term debt in 2024, reducing its interest expense to zero in 2025-2028F.
In our view, QTP looks attractive as it is currently trading at a 2024F PER of 7.9x, which is ~45% lower compared to the average P/E of our covered thermal
power stocks while its projected dividend yield is 2x higher.
Upside potential: Previous years’ FX loss compensation of ~VND500bn to be received over the next few years; SCIC’s divestment; EVNGENCO1’s IPO; moving to
HOSE in the long term.
Downside risk: PPA review. Higher-than-expected heat rate (coal consumption per kWh)/coal price/technical issue.
74
Water Sector
Binh Duong stands out among other provinces with the
potential highest water demand CAGR
Binh Duong has a resilient long-term water demand growth…
TDM's volume growth - LHS BWE's volume growth - LHS

50% 46% 12%
40% 10.0% 9.2% 10%

9.0%
31% 31% 9.0% 9.1%
30% 8.0% 8.0% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8%
19% 18% 6.8%

20% 16% 16% 18% 6%
6.0% 11.0% 11.0%
10.0% 11.0% 11.0%
9% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0%
10% 6%7% 5% 5.0% 5.0% 4%
3% 4%
1.3%
2.6%
0% -1.4% 2%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F
-10% 0%
Source: BWE, TDM, Binh Duong provincial authorities, Vietcap
… thanks to strong FDI inflows. Binh Duong ranks third in … and growing residential water demand due to high
Vietnam for attracting FDI over the past 30 years. urbanization and population migration.
200 Industrial Residential & Others

4,000
Water supply (mn cbm)

3,138 150
2,798
3,000 83 90 95
2,367 79
2,133
1,884 100
2,000 1,547 1,495
1,217
1,000 50 87 91 91 88
0 -
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment (MoPI), Vietcap Source: BWE, Vietcap
76
Water tariff in Binh Duong to increase 3% p.a. in 2025-2028F
• The residential water tariff in Binh Duong Province of VND10,500/cbm in 2023 is close to the average of observed municipalities’
ladder-scale tariffs.
• Industrial water tariff in Binh Duong in 2023 was 10% lower than Binh Phuoc.
• Some increases in water tariffs of several provinces/cities in 2023 are encouraging despite slower economic growth.
• We believe BWE & TDM’s request to raise the water tariff by 3% p.a. starting on July 1, 2025, for the next five years will be approved.
This is a one-year delay from our previous expectation since it takes more time for them to justify the water tariff increase amid on-
going economic difficulties.
Binh Duong’s water tariff for end users 2018-2023 (VND/cbm)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Residential (households) 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 10,500
YoY 5.9% 5.6% 5.3% 5.0% 0.0%
Manufacturing
- Retail 11,500 12,000 12,600 13,200 13,800 13,800
YoY 4.3% 5.0% 4.8% 4.5% 0.0%
- Wholesale 10,800 11,300 11,800 12,500 13,100 13,100
YoY 4.6% 4.4% 5.9% 4.8% 0.0%
Source: Decision 04/2018/QĐ-UBND of the People's Committee of Binh Duong, dated February 22, 2018, BWE, Vietcap
Water tariff in Binh Duong Province vs other cities/provinces in 2023 (VND/cbm)

VND/cbm Binh Duong Binh Phuoc Ba Ria – Dong Nai HCMC Hanoi Can Tho Long An
Vung Tau
Residential 10,500 8,047- 4,500- 5,800- 6,700- 7,500- 5,500-8,700 9,196
14,240 on 12,500 on 12,800 on 14,400 on 24,000 on on ladder (wholesale
ladder ladder ladder ladder ladder scale scale basis price)
scale basis scale basis scale basis scale basis basis
Industrial 13,100 14,660 11,500 10,300 12,100 15,000 8,900 12,702
(wholesale price)
Source: BWE, Vietcap (above prices do not include VAT (5%) and environmental protection fee (10%))
77
BWE & TDM are expanding beyond Binh Duong Province
• BWE and TDM have established a presence in seven out of Vietnam’s 63 provinces/municipalities in what is typically a
strictly State-owned business. We estimate BWE to have a ~30%-50% market share in the water business in
southwestern Vietnam, 30% in Dong Nai Province (with the potential to increase to 50% market share), and 40% in Quang
Binh Province.
• Consolidation of Biwase Long An (previously known as DNP Long An Water Infrastructure Investment JSC) marks
BWE’s biggest M&A success, giving it full control rights. On May 31, 2023, BWE increased its stake in Biwase Long An
from 25.4% to 91.6%.
• Biwase Long An is doubling capacity and we project its NPAT to increase 7x from an estimated VND33bn in 2024 to
VND236bn in 2028. Biwase Long An received a construction license and is aggressively working to double the capacity of
its Nhi Thanh water plant from 60,000 cbm/day to 120,000 cbm/day with a target to come online in Q3 2025. Management
is confident that Biwase Long An can quickly acquire new clients and fully utilize its new capacity in one to two years as
demand is two-to-three times higher compared to the current supply. This supports our volume CAGR forecast of 17% over
2024-2028F.
78
Locations of BWE & TDM’s projects and acquired water companies
79
Source: BWE, TDM, Vietcap. Note: BWE has a 41% stake in Quang Binh Water (UPCoM: NQB) and TDM has a 42.45% stake in
DNP Quang Binh Water Infrastructure Investment JSC, which are not illustrated on the map.
BWE – Earnings to rebound in 2024; cash dividend payments
resume
Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F BWE VNI
YTD
Share Price (Feb 20) VND43,450 Revenue 3,526 3,810 4,263 4,894
NPAT-MI 671 729 1,036 1,389 1Y
% YoY -9.6% 8.6% 42.1% 34.1%
Upside to TP +11.4% EPS % YoY -9.6% 8.6% 42.1% 34.1% 3Y ann.
TSR +14.6% NPM 19.0% 19.1% 24.3% 28.4% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Industry Utilities Net D/E 91.0% 68.8% 69.0% 48.4% BWE is the second largest water distribution
Market Cap USD347mn DPS (VND) 0 1,400 1,500 1,600 company in Vietnam and had a capacity of 760,000
Foreign Room USD112mn Dividend yield 3.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3.5% cbm per day as of 2022. BWE offers a full
ADTV30D USD0.3mn P/E 15.0x 13.8x 9.7x 7.3x environmental value chain from water generation and
State Ownership 19% P/B 1.7x 1.6x 1.4x 1.2x distribution (80% of gross profit) to wastewater
Outstanding Shares 193 mn EV/EBITDA 8.6x 7.4x 6.5x 5.2x treatment. BWE is also active in waste treatment,
Fully Diluted Shares 193 mn * TP and rating last update February 19, 2024 funeral services, and rooftop solar power.
We are optimistic about BWE’s growth outlook as it is one of the leading players in Vietnam’s water sector. BWE is expanding its footprint
beyond Binh Duong Province into Dong Nai, Long An, Vinh Long, Ca Mau, Quang Binh provinces as well as the city of Can Tho. The company also
possesses a superior loss ratio that it claims to rank the third in the Asia-Pacific region.
BWE is poised to benefit from robust water demand growth in Binh Duong Province with a potential residential and industrial water demand
at a 10-11% p.a over 2025-2028 period — twice Vietnam’s water demand growth rate p.a.
BWE is requesting a favorable water tariff policy in Binh Duong Province with a 3% increase p.a. in 2025-2028F.
We forecast 2024F reported NPAT growth of 9% YoY, which will be driven by 5% YoY and 15x YoY growth in the NPAT of the water supply and
waste treatment segments, respectively. We forecast that the residential waste treatment tariff will increase by 10% YoY on April 1, 2024. In
early 2024, BWE inaugurated a 5 MW waste-to-energy plant and raise recycling capacity by 15% to 2,520 tons per day and will raise the thermal
plant capacity to 17MW, to further improve revenues.
BWE’s valuation looks attractive at a 2024F P/E of 13.8x and implied PEG of 0.5 based on a projected 2024-2026F EPS CAGR of 27%.
Management is confident in reverting to cash dividend payments from 2024 after executing a 14% stock dividend in H1 2024.
Upside potential: sooner-than-expected water tariff hike, stronger-than-expected water demand recovery.
Downside risk: higher-than-expected operating costs.
80
TDM – NPAT from water generation to improve in 2024F

Share Price (Feb 20) VND42,300 Revenue 533 562 621 701 TDM VNI
YTD
NPAT-MI 283 201 352 422
% YoY 28.5% -29.2% 75.7% 19.7% 1Y
Upside to TP -0.5% EPS % YoY -22.6% 7.3% 37.1% 24.8%
TSR +3.1% NPM 53.2% 35.7% 56.7% 60.1%
ROE 13.9% 9.1% 14.2% 15.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Industry Utilities Net D/E 5.8% -2.3% -9.0% -16.6%
Dividend yield Company Overview
Market Cap USD193mn 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.8%
TDM is a private water supply company in Binh Duong
Foreign Room USD85mn DPS (VND) 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700
Province (southern Vietnam). TDM had a capacity of
ADTV30D USD0.1mn P/E, consolidated 9.9x 10.5x 7.9x 6.1x 260,000 cbm per day in 2022. TDM has a 37% stake in
State Ownership 0.0% P/B 2.1x 2.0x 1.8x 1.7x Binh Duong Water - Environment Corporation - JSC
Outstanding Shares 100 mn EV/EBITDA 11.6x 11.8x 10.1x 8.2x (HOSE: BWE), a leading player and full value chain
Fully Diluted Shares 110 mn * TP and rating last updated February 19, 2024 water company in Binh Duong Province.
TDM has a 37.4% stake in BWE — Vietnam’s third biggest water player in Binh Duong Province. BWE is an associate company of TDM as well as its sole
customer. TDM and BWE play a duopoly role in Binh Duong’s clean water supply. TDM sells 100% of its water volume to BWE, which then distributes the
water to end users in Binh Duong Province (~50% to households and ~50% to industrial parks).
TDM possesses ample land bank to expand capacity. TDM secured land bank to increase its Di An plant’s capacity from 200,000 cbm/day to 500,000
cbm/day over the long term. It also has an opportunity to increase its Bau Bang plant’s capacity from 60,000 to 160,000 cbm/day over the long term.
We expect TDM to deliver robust growth and a rising yield. We project a 2024-2026F EPS CAGR of 45% as a result of double-digit water demand growth,
a 3% p.a. water tariff increase in 2025-2027F and capacity expansion. We project DPS to increase to VND1,400/1,500 in 2023/2024F.
We expect 2024F reported NPAT to decrease 29% YoY mainly due to TDM not receiving a cash dividend from BWE.
We forecast NPAT from water generation to grow 37% YoY in 2025, driven by a 3% YoY higher water tariff from July 1, 2025, following BWE’s higher tariff
and sales volume growth of 10% YoY. In addition, we expect 2025F reported NPAT to jump 75% YoY mainly due to TDM receiving a cash dividend from BWE.
TDM’s valuation looks fair at our projected 2024F parent and consolidated P/E of 25.2x and 10.5x respectively, in our view.
Upside catalyst: sooner-than-expected water tariff hike.
Downside risk: weaker-than-expected recovery of water demand .
81
Disclaimer
Analyst Certification of Independence
We, Duong Dinh, Linh Tran, Phuoc Duong, and Thu Vo hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities or issuers. We also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation
based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and
Investment Banking.
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82
Contacts
Research
Duong Dinh, Associate Director Research team Alastair Macdonald, Head of Research
+84 28 3914 3588, ext 140 +84 28 3914 3588 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 105
duong.dinh@vietcap.com.vn research@vietcap.com.vn alastair.macdonald@vietcap.com.vn
Linh Tran, Analyst Phuoc Duong, Analyst Thu Vo, Analyst

+84 28 3914 3588, ext 196 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 135 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 529
linh.tranthuy@vietcap.com.vn phuoc.duong@vietcap.com.vn thu.vo@vietcap.com.vn
Brokerage and Institutional Sales & Trading

Tuan Nhan Quynh Chau Dung Nguyen
Managing Director, Brokerage & Managing Director Director
Institutional Sales & Trading Brokerage Institutional Sales & Trading
+84 28 3914 3588, ext 107 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 222 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 136
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Energy Sector in Feb 2024

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Energy sector

Domestic E&P to enter a new growth cycle

Linh Tran Thu Vo Phuoc Duong

Oil & Gas and Petroleum stocks – Key data

Source: Fiinpro, Vietcap (data as of February 20, 2024). 4

30% 20% BWE: -17%

Water sector outlook

Power & Water – Summary valuations (based on reported earnings)

Source: FiinPro, Vietcap (data as of February 20, 2024) 7

Thu Vo Phuoc Duong Duong Dinh

Brent oil price movement (USD/bbl)

80 (2) OPEC+ agreed to

Source: Bloomberg, Vietcap Source: Institutions in table, Vietcap

Vietcap’s LNG price forecasts (USD/MMBTU) Gas price forecasts

Source: Evercore ISI, Vietcap

Upstream Mid-stream Downstream

PetroVietnam PVS GAS GAS BSR PLX

Source: BP Statistics, Vietcap. Note: Data as of end 2020. 14

Crude oil and gas production in Vietnam

Source: National Energy Development Plan for 2021-2030, Vietcap 15

Source: Vietnam’s National Assembly, Vietcap 16

• PetroVietnam’s subsidiaries also have significant capex plans, such as:

4,000 Total capex of USD17bn 120

Source: Industry players, Fiinpro, Vietcap 18

Select oil & gas projects in Vietnam expected in 2023-2033

Select tentative drilling jobs in Vietnam

Block B project value chain

Mid stream (USD1.3bn): Gas

Pros & cons to Block B receiving a final investment decision

Source: Public media, Vietcap 23

Estimated revenue and NPAT for beneficiaries of Block B (USD mn)

PVB 130 13 Contract for gas pipeline coating.

Rating* BUY (USD mn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

Day rate of JU IC 361-400 WD in Southeast Asia

140,000 132,966 120

Source: S&P Global, Vietcap 26

Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

Source: GAS, Vietcap 30

Hai Linh LNG Terminal - Phase 1

Rating* MARKET PERFORM (VND bn) 2022 2023 2024F 2025F

Source: Bloomberg, Vietcap 34

Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

• For 2024, we expect Vietnam’s petroleum consumption to grow by

Rating* BUY (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

1,000 8.0% 10% 1,000 15%

Crude tanker supply growth - RS Product tanker supply growth - RS

Source: BIMCO, Clarksons Shipping Intelligence Network, PVT, Vietcap 41

108 Decrease Increase 66 Decrease Increase

Central and South America

Rating* OUTPERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

Rating* MARKET PERFORM (VND bn) 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

Linh Tran Phuoc Duong Thu Vo

MoIT’s forecasts for Vietnam’s power capacity (MW)

Additional solar and wind power capacity by 2030, by region

Capex requirements for the power sector

Public financing commitments by IPG members to Vietnam’s JETP

Source: JETP RMP (December 2023), Vietcap 50

Prices for transitional renewable power plants

Source: MoIT, public media, Vietcap 51

Hydropower PPA 4.8

Solar power FiT 1 9.4 IRR 15%-20%

Ground-mounted solar power FiT 2 7.1

Ground-mounted solar power prices 3 5.0 IRR 9%-10%

Ground-mounted solar power prices 4 5.2 IRR 10%-12%