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Chapter 5-6
Chapter 5-6
Chapter 5-6
A Project
is a conversion
process
Project Performance Dimensions
Thus, the performance of a project is measured by the degree
to which these three parameters (scope, time and cost) are
achieved.
Mathematically
Performance = f (Scope, Cost, Time)
Any increase in the scope of work requires a corresponding increase in budget and schedule.
Conversely, any decrease in scope of work results in a corresponding decrease in budget and
schedule. This principle applies between any and all of the three components of a project. For
example, any adjustment in budget and/or schedule requires a corresponding adjustment in scope.
This simple concept of a balance between scope, budget, and schedule is sometimes not fully
recognized during early project development as well as during design and construction.
Types of Projects
There are three broad categories of projects to consider: Strategic
Projects, Operational Projects, and Compliance Projects.
I. Strategic Projects
✓involve creating something new and innovative.
✓A new product, a new service, a new retail location, a new branch or
division, or even a new factory might be a strategic project, because it will
allow an organization to gain strategic advantage over its competitors.
Cont….
II. Operational Projects
Such project types required to improve current operations.
These projects may not produce radical improvements, but they will
reduce costs, get work done more efficiently, or produce a higher quality
product.
III. Compliance Projects
✓This project must be done in order to comply with an industry or
governmental regulation or standard.
✓Often there is no choice about whether to implement a project to meet a
regulation, but there may be several project options to consider, any of
which would result in meeting compliance requirements.
Life cycle of a project
1. Project Selection
1. Selection of Project
consideration
2. Project Planning • Receptive to new ideas
• Vision of future growth
3. Project Implementation
• Long-term objective
4. Project Completion and Audit • SWOT analysis
• Preliminary project Analysis
➢ Project Selection Criteria: 3. Project Implementation
✓Organizing team and work
➢Investment business
✓Clear Cost/Time/performance goals
➢Rate of return ➢Expected life
➢Risk ➢Flexibility ✓Project Monitoring with regard to
➢Likely profit ➢Environmental Impact cost/value of work and time
➢Payback ➢Competition ✓Project Control
➢Similarity to existing
Definition:
“The application of knowledge, skills, tools
and techniques to project activities in order to
meet the defined project requirements.”
Cont…
“Project management is the planning, organizing, directing,
❖ The technique of breaking down the total work into more manageable
• The boxes in this type of diagram are called nodes and the arrows
indicate finish-start relationships.
1
A
A and B must be A C
C 3 4
finished before C
B
started B
2
B 3
B
A must be finished A
A 1 2
before started B C
C
and C 4
Compression between AOA and AON
Meaning Activity on nodes Activity on arrows
4
A C
1 C
A and B must be A
finished before C 3
D
B
and D started B D 2 4
A C
1 4 6
A C
A and B must be
finished before C
and D started after B D
B D
B is completed. 2 3 5
Dummy are introduced
A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions
Meaning Activity on nodes Activity on arrows
3
Avoid mixing arrows in network
In network the arrow must drawn from
1 2 left to right
CPM (Critical Path Method) evolutions
• CPM was the discovery BY Walker and Remington in 1957 and
• The sum of the completion times for the activities on the critical path is
the minimal completion time of the project.
1-2 6 0 6 0 6 0
2-3 4 6 10 12 16 6
2-4 9 6 15 6 15 0
2-5 2 6 8 21 23 15
3-5 7 10 17 16 23 6
4-5 8 15 23 15 23 0
5-6 5 23 28 23 28 0
From the table, the critical nodes are (1-2), (2-4),
(4-5), and (5-6)
1-2 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6 0.444
2-3 2 3 10 4 6 10 12 16 1.778
2-4 6 8 16 9 6 15 6 15 2.778
2-5 1 2 3 2 6 8 21 23 0.111
3-5 6 7 8 7 10 17 16 23 0.111
4-5 6 7 14 8 15 23 15 23 1.778
5-6 3 5 7 5 23 28 23 28 0.444
𝑋−𝜇
𝑍=
𝛿
Cost slop: The cost slop indicating the increased in cost per unit reduction in
time defined as cost slope
Four Steps to Project Crashing
1. Find the normal critical path and identify the critical activities
2. Compute the crash cost per week (or other time period) for all
activities in the network using the formula
Crash cost – Normal cost
Crash cost/Time period =
Normal time – Crash time
3. Select the activity on the critical path with the smallest crash cost
per period and crash this activity to the maximum extent possible or
to the point at which your desired deadline has been reached
4. Check that the critical path you were crashing is still critical. If the
critical path is still the longest path through the network, return to
step 3. If not, find the new critical path and return to step 3 .
Computing crash data
❑Given:
✓ activities
✓ normal time
✓ normal cost
✓ crash time
✓ crash cost
❑Compute:
✓ maximum time reduction
✓ cost to crash per period
Crashing
• Obtaining reduction in time at an increased cost (increasing the employed
resources).
• Cost-slope: the cost of reducing duration time by unit time.
• Let’s see the following example:
Normal Crash 1. Draw project
Activity Normal cost Crash cost network
time time
1-2 3 2 5000 7000 2. Compute PERT
2-3 4 2 6000 10000
3. Find critical path
2-4 3 1 9000 17000
2-5 4 3 5000 9000 4. Assume overhead
3-5 2 1 5000 9500 cost is 6000 Birr,
what is optimal
4-5 5 2 7000 16000
solution for
5-6 5 5 20000 20000
project.
1. Draw project network
2. Compute PERT
3.Find critical path
4. Assume overhead cost is 6000 Birr, what is optimal solution for project.
Before go to crash the project we must be calculate the following data
A. Therefore, 1-2 has the lowest cost, then crash activity 1-2 by 1 day. Project
duration is 15 days
Cost = 156,000+1*2000-6000
= 152,000 Birr
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Resource scheduling importance
✓Improve efficiency and cost of the project
✓Analyze the utilization rate for each of the resources and reassign tasks to
resources that are not working to their full utilization rates
Activity
3-5=17
constraints.
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The normal project scheduling with manpower requirement (on the
top of arrow) is shown below.
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✓ If the actual manpower allocated as per the project schedule is
more than the upper limit of 1, then the non-critical activities are
postponed with the most slack value so that the actual manpower
on that month is less than or equal to the maximum limit.
✓ In spite of this if the total manpower goes beyond the maximum
limit, then the critical activity is to be postponed by some period
such that total manpower is within the maximum limit. It is shown
in the following
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Now the manpower requirement with month is presented in the next slide
table.
2/24/2024 78
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Manpower
10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 2 9 9 9 9
requirement
2/24/2024 79
CHAPTER SIX
Investment Evaluation
✓Engineering Economics
Step Activity
1.Problem recognition, definition, and Evaluation 1. Problem/need definition.
2.Development of the feasible alternatives.
2. Problem/need formulation and
3.Development of the outcomes and cash flows
evaluation.
for each alternative.
3. Synthesis of possible solutions
4.Selection of a criterion (or criteria).
(alternatives).
5.Analysis and comparison of the alternatives.
6.Selection of the preferred alternative. 4. Analysis, optimization, and evaluation
7.Performance monitoring and post-evaluation of 5. Specification of preferred alternative.
results.
6. Communication.
Time Value of Money
Since a person who has money has certain advantages over a person who
doesn’t, people are willing to pay for that advantage
Beginning
Year Interest for period Ending balance
balance
1 P iP P(1+i)
2 P(1+i) iP(1+i) P(1+i)2
3 P(1+i)2 iP(1+i)2 P(1+i)3
n P(1+i)n-1 iP(1+i)n-1 P(1+i)n
• Formula: F=P(1+i)n
• Functional notation:
F=P(F/P,i,n)
F=5000(F/P,6%,10)
F1 = 10,000+10,000(0.20) = 12,000
F2= 12,000+12,000(0.20) = 14,400
F3= 14,400+14,400(0.20) = $17,280
Investment Evaluation
and
Budgetary control
The Finance Function
Financial
Operations
Manager
(Plant, (1a) Raise Financial
Equipment, (2) Investment Funds
Markets
Projects, (Investors)
etc.) (1b) Obligations
(Stocks, Debt, IOUs)
(4) Reinvest
Characteristics
of the
Investment
Cost of Capital
The Finance Function
By making investing and financing decisions, the financial
manager is attempting to achieve the following objective:
• (Taken literally, this means that a firm should pursue policies that
1 1 1 1 1
𝑃𝑊ሺ𝑖ሻ = – 𝑃 + 𝑅1[ ] + 𝑅2[ ] + … + 𝑅𝑗[ ] + 𝑅𝑛[ ] + 𝑆[ ]
1+𝑖 1 1+𝑖 2 1+𝑖 𝑗 1+𝑖 𝑛 1+𝑖 𝑛
COST-DOMINATED CASH FLOW DIAGRAM
• A generalized cost-dominated cash flow diagram to demonstrate the
present worth method of comparison is presented
salvage value
Cj the net cost of operation and maintenance at the end of
at the end of the jth year the nth year
P Is initial investment
1 1 1 1 1
𝑃𝑊ሺ𝑖ሻ = – 𝑃 + 𝐶1[ ] + 𝐶2[ ] + … + 𝐶𝐽[ ] + 𝐶𝑛[ ] + 𝑆[ ]
1+𝑖 1 1+𝑖 2 1+𝑖 𝑗 1+𝑖 𝑛 1+𝑖 𝑛
Series present worth factor
The present value of P if an amount A is invested at the end of
each year,
1+𝑖 𝑛 −1
𝑃 =𝐴
𝑖 1+𝑖 𝑛
Capital recovery factor
The amount A that should be invested at the end of each year, if
amount P is invested at the beginning of first year,
𝑖 1+𝑖 𝑛
𝐴 = 𝑃
[ 1 + 𝑖 𝑛 − 1]
EXAMPLE: - Alpha Industry is planning to expand its production operation.
It has identified three different technologies for meeting the goal. The initial
outlay and annual revenues with respect to each of the technologies are
summarized. Suggest the best technology which is to be implemented based
on the present worth method of comparison assuming 20% interest rate,
compounded annually.
Solution: - Technology 1 Solution: - Technology 2
Interest rate, i = 20%, compounded annually Interest rate, i = 20%, compounded annually
PW(20%)=-1200000+400000(((1+0.2)^10- PW(20%)=-
1)/〖0.2(1+i)〗^10 )=- 20,000,000+6,000,0000(((1+0.2)^10-1)/〖
1,200,000+400,000(4.192)=- 0.2(1+i)〗^10 )=-
1200,000+1,676,800=476,800 20,000,000+6,000,0000(4.192)=-
20,000,000+ 25,152,000 = 5,152,000
Solution: - Technology 3 Compare
= Operating Profit
- Cash Taxes on Operating Profit
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold
- Depreciation
- Selling, General & Admin.
= Operating Profit
- Cash Taxes on Operating Profit
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold
- Depreciation
- Selling, General & Admin.
= Operating Profit
- Cash Taxes on Operating Profit
flows forecast.
need the operating working capital, not the operating and financial
working capital.
Cont…
Accounting Definition of Working Capital
Working Capital = Current Assets - Current Liabilities
• Current assets include operating assets (above dotted line). However, excess cash and marketable
securities not required for operations (below dotted line) are not operating working capital and
accounted separately for value (see 10th commandment).
• Current liabilities include both operating liabilities (above the dotted line) and non-operating short-
term debt (below the dotted line).
Cont…
4) Separate investment and financing decisions
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold
- Depreciation
- Selling, General & Admin.
= Operating Profit
Evaluate as if
- Cash Taxes on Operating Profit
entirely equity
financed
= Net Operating Profit After Tax
Ignore
+ Depreciation
financing/
- Capital Expenditures
no interest line
- Increase in Working Capital
item
= Cash Flow from Operations
Cont…
5) Estimate flows on an incremental basis
Incremental = total firm cash flow - total firm cash flow
Cash Flow WITH the project WITHOUT the project
•Include all effects of the project on the rest of the firm (e.g., cannibalization,
erosion, enhancement, etc.)
Cont…
What other
uses could
resources be
put to?
Terminal Value
9) Overhead costs
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold
- Depreciation
- Selling, General & Admin.
Do not forget
= Operating Profit
overheads and - Cash Taxes on Operating Profit
other indirect
costs that = Net Operating Profit After Tax
increase due + Depreciation
- Capital Expenditures
to the project
- Increase in Working Capital
There are several bases for comparing the worthiness of the projects.
These bases are:
1. Present worth method
2. Future worth method
3. Annual equivalent method
4. Rate of return method
Present worth method
✓The cash flows of each alternative will be reduced to time zero by assuming an
interest rate i.
✓Then, depending on the type of decision, the best alternative will be selected by
comparing the present worth amounts of the alternatives.
✓ For two or more mutually exclusive alternatives select the one with the
numerically largest PW value.
Future Worth Analysis
PW analysis;
• The rate of return is the interest rate that makes the present worth or annual
worth of a cash flow series exactly equal to 0.
✓If i ≥MARR, accept the project as economically viable.
✓If i <MARR, the project is not economically viable.
Benefit/Cost Analysis
500 500
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = + + = 454.55 + 413.2 + NPV > $0
1+0.1 1 1+0.1 2
3456 + 6830-10,000 $1,154 > $0
4600 10000
+ -10,000 14
1+0.1 3 1+.1 4 =11154-10,000 =1153.89
NPV Decision Rule
Example:
Decision Rule: Accept the project if With 10% the value is 1153.89
Therefore, the value must be
IRR > Opportunity Cost of Capital above 10%
Let try with 15%
From previous projects
Time A B
500 500 4600 10000
0 (10,000) (10,000) 0= + + + -10,000
1.15 1 1.15 2 1.15 3 1.15 4
1 3,500 500
2 3,500 500
3 3,500 4,600 0 = 434.78+378+3,024.57+5,717.53-10,000
4 3,500 10,000
= -445.12
Calculation of IRR
Let try with 14% Let try with 13.5%
500 500 4600 10000
500 500 4600 0= + + + -10,000
0= + + + 1.135 1 1.135 2 1.135 3 1.135 4
1.14 1 1.14 2 1.14 3
10000
-10,000 0 = 440+388+3146+6025-10,000= 0
1.14 4
0 = 439+385+3105+5921-10,000= -150
Let try with 13% Since NPV = 0
0=
500
+
500
+
4600
+
10000
-10,000 IRRB = 13.50%
1.13 1 1.13 2 1.13 3 1.13 4
Calculate project A by yourself
0 = 442+396+3188+6133-10,000= 159
IRRA = 14.96%
Therefore, it lays between 14% and 13%
Other Evaluation Methods
Profitability Index: PV/I. Problem: Biases against large-scale projects.
}
ROA (return on assets)
ROI (return on investment) Earnings
= Investment
ROFE (return on funds employed)
ROCE (return on capital employed) Problems:
•Investment not valued at market
Net Income
ROE = •Earnings vs. cash flows
Shareholders’ Equity
Book Value
Comparison and Selection Among Alternatives
• Most engineering projects can be accomplished by more than one feasible design alternative.
• When the selection of one of these alternatives excludes the choice of any of the others, the
alternatives are called mutually exclusive.
• Typically, the alternatives being considered require the investment of different amounts of capital,
and their annual revenues and costs may vary.
• Sometimes the alternatives may have different useful lives.
• The fundamental question is “do the added benefits from a more-expensive alternative bring a
positive return relative to the added costs?”
• A basic methods for economic comparison of alternatives for an engineering project is present
worth (PW), annual worth (AW), future worth (FW), internal rate of return (IRR), and external
rate of return (ERR)].
• These provide When correctly applied, these methods result in the correct selection of a preferred
alternative from a set of mutually exclusive alternatives.
Comparison and Selection Among Alternatives
• The alternatives may have different initial investments and their annual
revenues and costs may vary.
• The basic methods from chapter 6 provide the basis for economic
comparison of the alternatives.
Apply this rule, based on Principle 2
• If the extra benefits obtained by investing additional capital are better than
those that could be obtained from investment of the same capital elsewhere
in the company at the MARR, the investment should be made. (Please note
that there are some cautions when considering more than two alternatives,
• Both alternatives are attractive, but Alternative B provides a greater present worth,
so is better economically.
Cost alternative example
Use a MARR of 12% and useful life of 4 years to select between the cost alternatives below.
Alternative
C D
Capital investment -$80,000 -$60,000
Annual expenses -$25,000 -$30,000
Alternative D costs less than Alternative C, it has a greater PW, so is better economically.
Pause and Solve
Your local foundry is adding a new furnace.
There are several different styles and types of furnaces, so the foundry must select from
among a set of mutually exclusive alternatives.
Initial capital investment and annual expenses for each alternative are given in the table
below.
None have any market value at the end of its useful life. Using a MARR of 15%, which
furnace should be chosen?
Furnace
F1 F2 F3
Investment $110,000 $125,000 $138,000
Useful life 10 years 10 years 10 years
Total annual expenses $53,800 $51,625 $45,033
Solution
Using a MARR of 15%, the PW is shown for each of the three alternatives in the table below.
Furnace
F1 F2 F3
Investment $110,000 $125,000 $138,000
Useful life 10 years 10 years 10 years
Total annual expenses $53,800 $51,625 $45,033
Present Worth @ 15% -$380,010 -$384,094 -$364,010
The largest value is -$364,010, indicating that Furnace F3 is the best alternative.
Determining the study period.
• A study period (or planning horizon) is the time period over which
MEAs are compared, and it must be appropriate for the decision
situation.
• MEAs can have equal lives (in which case the study period used is
these equal lives), or they can have unequal lives, and at least one
does not match the study period.
• The equal life case is straightforward, and was used in the previous
two examples.
Unequal lives are handled in one of two ways.
• Repeatability assumption
• The study period is either indefinitely long or equal to a common multiple of the
lives of the MEAs.
• The economic consequences expected during the MEAs’ life spans will also
happen in succeeding life spans (replacements).
• Selecting the alternative with the largest rate of return can lead to incorrect decisions—
do not compare the IRR of one alternative to the IRR of another alternative. The only
legitimate comparison is the IRR to the MARR.
• Remember, the base alternative must be attractive (rate of return greater than the
MARR), and the additional investment in other alternatives must itself make a
satisfactory rate of return on that increment.
Use the incremental investment analysis procedure.
• Arrange (rank order) the feasible alternatives based on increasing capital
investment.
• Subtract cash flows of the lower ranked alternative from the higher ranked.
Alternative
A B B-A
Capital $12,000 $12,500 $500
investment
Net annual $2,500 $2,520 $20
income
IRR 12.99% 12.04% -20.11%
• Investment alternatives
• Cash flows reinvested at the MARR at the end of the study period
• Replace with another asset, with possibly different cash flows, after
the study period
The useful life of an alternative is greater than the study period.
period.
Equivalent worth methods can be used for MEAs with unequal lives.
finding the annual worth (AW) of each alternative over its own useful
life, and recommending the one having the most economical value.
• For co-termination, use any equivalent worth method using the cash