Na�onal

State Name Explanatory note

government

According to the coali�on agreement, the

German government supports the
European lead candidates system. If von
der Leyen, as the EPP’s lead candidate, is
Ursula von
supported by a majority in the European
der Leyen SPD (PES),
Parliament, the government will therefore
DE CDU/EPP Grüne (EGP),
support her re-elec�on as Commission
NN FDP (ALDE)
president, even though her party is now in
Grüne/EGP
opposi�on at na�onal level. Otherwise, the
coali�on agreement s�pulates that the
Greens will nominate the German
commissioner.

French law does not clearly state whether

the next French commissioner will be
Thierry proposed by President Emmanuel Macron
ac�ng:
Breton (RE/close to ALDE) or by the government. If
RE (close to
–/ALDE- Macron’s party is no longer part of the
ALDE),
related government a�er French legisla�ve
FR HOR (close
Bruno Le elec�ons on 30 June/7 July, difficult
to ALDE),
Maire nego�a�ons could be ahead. Within the
MoDem
RE/ALDE- Macron camp, single market commissioner
(EDP)
related Breton seems to seek another term in the
Commission; finance minister Le Maire
could be an alterna�ve.

Numerous names are circula�ng for the

next Italian commissioner. The favourite is
EU minister Fito, who would be interested
Raffaele Fito
in the post, but is also important for prime
FdI/ECR
minister Giorgia Meloni (FdI/ECR) as a
Giancarlo
member of her own cabinet. An alterna�ve
Giorge�
could be finance minister Giorge�, who
Lega/ID FdI (ECR),
would apparently like the job but belongs
IT Francesco Lega (ID),
to the smaller coali�on partner Lega.
Lollobrigida FI (EPP)
Agriculture minister Lollobrigida is also
FdI/ECR
being discussed, but he would prefer to
Antonio
stay in Rome. Foreign minister and former
Tajani
commissioner Tajani would probably be
FI/EPP
interested in returning to Brussels, but as
leader of the smallest coali�on party he
cannot claim the post. The Vene�an
 Na�onal
State Name Explanatory note
government

regional president Luca Zaia (Lega/ID), who

was seen as the favourite for the
Commission post
in previous media reports, has ruled
himself out.

The Spanish government wants to posi�on

PSOE (PES),
Teresa Ribera its environment minister Ribera as a
ES Sumar (EL,
PSOE/PES Commission vice-president with an
EGP)
environment or energy por�olio.

Foreign Minister Sikorski was considered

a possible candidate for the planned new
post of an EU defence commissioner. A�er
Radosław the elec�on, however, he said that he
Sikorski would not seek the post. As an alterna�ve,
PO/EPP PO (EPP), Poland’s current EU permanent
Piotr Serafin PSL (EPP), representa�ve Serafin could aim for the
PO/EPP PL2050 enlargement por�olio. Other possible
PL Bartosz (close to op�ons are MEP Arłukowicz as well
Arłukowicz ALDE), as Warsaw mayor Trzaskowski, although
PO/EPP L (close to the later would probably also like to run in
Rafał PES) the 2025 Polish presiden�al elec�on. MEP
Trzaskowski Jacek Saryusz-Wolski (PiS/ECR) has
PO/EPP been proposed as a commissioner by his
own party, but as an opposi�on candidate
he has no chance of winning the support of
the government.

Iohannis, whose term as na�onal president

ends at the end of 2024, is running for
NATO secretary general and would also
be interested in the presidency of the
Klaus
European Council (which, however, is likely
Iohannis
PSD (PES), to go to a PES or ALDE member if Ursula
RO PNL/EPP
PNL (EPP) von der Leyen is re-elected as Commission
Mihai Tudose
president). If Iohannis does not achieve any
PSD/PES
of these top jobs, he could move to the
Commission instead. However, it is also
possible that prime minister Marcel Ciolacu
(PSD/PES) will propose a member of his
 Na�onal
State Name Explanatory note
government

own party instead, such as former primer

minister and current MEP Tudose. Ramona
Chiriac, head of the Commission’s
representa�on in Romania, also seems to
have been interested in the post, but
was rejected by Ciolacu.

Since the Dutch general elec�on in

November 2023, the government is in
office on a caretaker basis only. PVV (ID),
ac�ng: VVD (ALDE), NSC (close to EPP) and BBB
VVD (ALDE), (close to EPP) have agreed to form a new
NN
NL D66 (ALDE), coali�on, but have not agreed on all
NN
CDA (EPP), ministerial posi�ons yet. The EU
CU (ECPM) commissioner will be proposed by the new
government. Current commissioner Wopke
Hoekstra’s party CDA (EPP) will be in the
opposi�on.

Margarí�s
Schinás The current Commission vice-president
ND/EPP Schinás is likely to get a second term. Greek
EL ND (EPP)
Giórgos foreign minister Gerapetrí�s could be an
Gerapetrí�s alterna�ve.
ND/EPP

Open VLD
(ALDE), The Belgian parliamentary elec�on was
MR (ALDE), held on 9 June, at the same �me as the
PS (PES), European elec�on. The current
NN
BE Vooruit commissioner, Didier Reynders (MR/ALDE),
NN
(PES), will not return to his post, but has applied
CD&V (EPP), to become secretary general of the Council
Ecolo (EGP), of Europe.
Groen (EGP)

Miguel The alliance of PSD and CDS-PP won a

Poiares plurality of votes in the Portuguese
PSD (EPP)
PT Maduro parliament elec�ons in March 2024 and
CDS-PP (EPP)
PSD/EVP formed a minority government, which will
Maria Luísa propose the commissioner. Paulo Rangel
 Na�onal
State Name Explanatory note
government

Albuquerque (PSD/EPP) was seen as a possible candidate

PSD/EVP for commissioner, but instead took up the
Jorge Moreira post of foreign minister. Possible
da Silva alterna�ves are the legal scholar and
PSD/EVP former minister for regional development
Poiares Maduro, former finance minister
Albuquerque and high-ranking UN official
Jorge Moreira da Silva.

Danuše According to the coali�on agreement, Pirá�

Nerudová (PPEU) and STAN (close to the EPP) will
STAN/EPP- propose the commissioner, although prime
related minister Petr Fiala (ODS/ECR) would
Jozef Síkela apparently prefer a STAN nominee.
ODS (ECR),
STAN/EPP- The most likely names are those of former
TOP09 (EPP),
related presiden�al candidate Nerudová
KDU-ČSL
Marcel Kolaja and industry minister Síkela (who may
CZ (EPP),
Pirá�/PPEU be interested in the energy por�olio). The
STAN (close
Jiří Šedivý head of the European Defence Agency,
to EPP),
no party Šedivý, the Czech permanent
Pirá� (PPEU)
Edita Hrdá representa�ve Hrdá and the Czech
no party government envoy for the reconstruc�on of
Tomáš Ukraine, Kopečný, are also in the running.
Kopečný For their part, the Pirá�
no party have suggested MEP Kolaja.

As the largest governing party, Fidesz (–)

will again nominate the commissioner.
Enikő Győri
However, a second term for the current
Fidesz/– Fidesz (–),
HU commissioner, Olivér Várhelyi, would
János Bóka KDNP (EPP)
probably be rejected by the European
no party
Parliament. MEP Győri or EU minister Bóka
are seen as the favourites to replace him.

Jessika
Roswall EU minister Roswell is the favourite for the
M/EPP M (EPP), Commission post. Possible alterna�ves are
SE Carl Bildt KD (EPP), former prime minister Bildt, foreign
M/EPP L (ALDE) minister Billström, or trade minister
Tobias Forssell.
Billström
 Na�onal
State Name Explanatory note
government

M/EPP
Johann
Forssell
M/EPP

EU minister Edtstadler and foreign minister

Schallenberg are the favourites to succeed
Johannes Hahn (ÖVP/EPP), who will step
Karoline
down as commissioner in 2024. However,
Edtstadler
the proposal requires the approval of the
ÖVP/EPP ÖVP (EPP),
AT main commitee of the Austrian
Alexander Grüne (EGP)
parliament. As na�onal elec�ons are held
Schallenberg
in Austria shortly a�er the European
ÖVP/EPP
elec�ons, this not seen as a certainty. The
SPÖ (PES), currently in opposi�on, is
also claiming the Commission post.

The Bulgarian governing coali�on of PP

(close to ALDE), GERB (EPP) and ZD
(EGP) collapsed in March 2024. A�er
ac�ng: the new elec�ons that took place at the
NN independent same �me as the European elec�on, GERB
BG
NN caretaker (EPP), DPS (ALDE) and ITN (close to ECR)
cabinet are in coali�on talks. If her party returns to
government, current commissioner Iliana
Ivanova (GERB/EPP) could be proposed
again.

Dan
Jørgensen
S/PES
Lars Løkke S (PES), Climate minister Jørgensen (S/PES), foreign
Rasmussen V (ALDE), minister Løkke Rasmussen (M/ALDE-
DK
M/ALDE- M (close to related) and industry minister Morten
related ALDE) Bødskov (S/PES) are possible candidates.
Morten
Bødskov
S/PES
 Na�onal
State Name Explanatory note
government

The Finnish government

has announced that it will propose MEP
Virkkunen as commissioner. It was clear
that, as the largest governing party, KOK
(EPP) would propose the commissioner,
and prime minister Peteri Orpo (KOK/EPP)
had signaled that he wanted the next
KOK (EPP), commissioner to have run in the European
Henna
PS (ECR), elec�on. Virkkunen had therefore long
FI Virkkunen
SFP (ALDE), been seen as the most plausible candidate.
KOK/EPP
KD (EPP) A�er the elec�on, Mika Aaltola, director of
the Finnish Ins�tute of Interna�onal Affairs
and a former independent presiden�al
candidate, had also claimed to have a
“mandate” to be commissioner. Aaltola had
run as a KOK candidate in the elec�on and
had won the most preferen�al votes for the
party.

The Slovakian government has

announced announced that it will propose
Maroš the experienced Commission vice-president
Smer (–),
Šefčovič Šefčovič for a fourth term. Previously,
Hlas (–),
SK no party former foreign minister Miroslav Lajčák,
SNS (close to
(Smer- currently the EU’s special representa�ve for
ID)
related) the Belgrade-Pris�na dialogue and the
Western Balkans, had been seen as a
possible alterna�ve.

Taoiseach Simon Harris (FG/EPP) seems to

Barry accept that the next commissioner will
Andrews be proposed by FF (ALDE). MEP Andrews is
FF/ALDE considered the favourite for the
Mairead FG (EPP), posi�onconsidered the favourite for the
IE McGuinness FF (ALDE), posi�on, although current commissioner
FG/EPP GP (EGP) McGuinness and agriculture minister
Charlie McConalogue are also interested. Former
McConalogue Taoiseach Leo Varadkar (FG/EPP) and FF
FF/ALDE leader Micheál Mar�n have ruled
themselves out.
 Na�onal
State Name Explanatory note
government

A�er the early na�onal parliamentary

Dubravka HDZ (EPP), elec�ons on 17 April, HDZ (EPP) and DP
HR Šuica DP (close to (close to ID) have formed a coali�on.
HDZ/EPP ID) Current commissioner Šuica could be
nominated for a second term of office.

Foreign minister Landsbergis is considered

a possible candidate for a post in foreign
and security policy, such as defence
commissioner. President Gitanas Nausėda
Gabrielius (–) has said he sees beter candidates than
TS-LKD (EPP),
LT Landsbergis Landsbergis, but has not men�oned any
LRLS (ALDE)
TS-LKD/EPP names. EPP leader Manfred Weber
(CSU/EPP) has declared his support for
Landsbergis. Prime minister Ingrida
Šimonytė (TS-LKD/EPP) has ruled out that
she will take a Commission post herself.

Valdis
Dombrovskis wants to remain a member of
Dombrovskis JV (EPP),
the Commission. Kariņš is also interested in
JV/EPP P (EGP),
LV the post, but had to resign as foreign
Krišjānis ZZS (close to
minister amid an expenses scandal in late
Kariņš ALDE)
March and has therefore only slim chances.
JV/EPP

Vesel, a former president of the Slovenian

Court of Audit, has been proposed be the
Slovenian government. Previously, some
GS (close to
media reports had men�oned foreign
Tomaž Vesel ALDE),
SI minister Tanja Fajon (SD/PES) as a possible
no party SD (PES),
candidate for the post of High
L (EL)
Representa�ve. However, it is unlikely that
this post will go to the PES a�er this
elec�on.

According to the coali�on agreement, RE

Kaja Kallas RE (ALDE), (ALDE) will nominate the commissioner.
RE/ALDE SDE (PES), Prime Minister Kallas is considered a likely
EE
Urmas Paet E200 (close candidate for the post of High
RE/ALDE to ALDE) Representa�ve. Alterna�vely, MEP Paet is
also interested in a Commission post.
 Na�onal
State Name Explanatory note
government

Stélla DISY (EPP),

CY Kyriakídes DIKO (close
DISY/EPP to PES)

The Luxembourg government intends to

proposeformer MEP Hansen as
commissioner. However, current EU
Christophe
commissioner Schmit will be the lead
Hansen
candidate of the PES. Even if he does not
CSV/EPP CSV (EPP),
LU become Commission president, he would
Nicolas DP (ALDE)
therefore have a good chance of winning an
Schmit
important Commission post, such as vice-
LSAP/PES
president. This could be a reason for the
government to put him forward again, even
though Schmit’s party is now in opposi�on.

Deputy prime minister Chris Fearne

(PL/PES), whom the Maltese
Miriam Dalli government had planned to nominate as
PL/PES commissioner, had to resign in May
MT PL (PES)
Ian Borg 2024 amidst a corrup�on scandal.
PL/PES Environment minister Dalli and foreign
minister Borg are seen as possible
replacements.