POSITRON Vol. 13, No. 02 (2023), Hal.

166 - 174

DOI: 10.26418/positron. v13i2.60389

Analysis of Projected Temperature Changes in Aceh Province

Yopi Ilhamsyaha*, Yustya Rahmyb, Marwanb, Kadarsahc
aDepartment of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Marine Sciences and Fisheries, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda
Aceh, Indonesia 23111
bDepartment of Geophysics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh,

Indonesia 23111
cAgency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics, Jakarta, Indonesia 10620

*Email : yopi.ilhamsyah@usk.ac.id
(Received 15 December 2022; Revised 24 May 2023; Accepted 17 November 2023; Published 30
November 2023)

Abstract

The objective is to analyse temperature changes and their future projection in Aceh. The activities consist of
collecting past and future temperature data, preparing materials for processing, and analyzing past and
future temperature data (climate change projections). The data used are monthly average temperature data
from data global climate model, e.g., csiromk3.6-hist-1986-2005-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp45- 2016-2035-tas,
csiromk3.6-rcp45-2046-2065-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp45-2081-2100-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp85-2016-2035-tas,
csiromk3.6-rcp85-2046-2065-tas, and csiromk3.6-rcp85-2081-2100-tas. The study began with reading
climate data in NetCDF format using GRADS software, data processing using CDO software, providing a
coordinate system using QGIS software, making climate change projection maps using ArcGIS software, and
making climate change graphs using spreadsheet program. Two scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to
analyse the projected temperature changes in the short-term (2016 – 2035), medium-term (2046-2065), and
long-term (2081-2100). The results show that the RCP4.5 projection shows a lower change in temperature rise
than the RCP 8.5. A change in a temperature rise of up to 5°C was found in the RCP8.5 scenario.
Keywords: temperature changes, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, 5°C
stressed by variations in sea surface heat by moving
1. Background
heat from the oceans to the land, which heats the
Climate change has an impact on human health land surface [5]. The lowest and highest
and the agriculture economy. The distribution or temperatures in numerous years are caused by the
pattern of rainfall is highly reliant on temperature inverse comparison between land surface
increases. It is projected that wetter areas will temperature and ocean surface temperature.
become wetter and drier areas will become drier, Climate scenarios try to track changes in
causing water resources to be disrupted [1,18]. climate conditions in a given area over time and
High latitudes receive the largest increase in air compare them to baseline circumstances. This
temperature, which has an impact on global forecast was created to better comprehend the
environmental changes such as biodiversity, repercussions of anthropogenic climate change
vegetation distribution, and ice melting at the poles based on the output of climate impact models [6].
[2,19,20]. Meanwhile, low latitudes show a slight The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
change in annual temperature. The altitude of a scenario was employed in this study. Climate
location also influences the temperature over a change is defined as a shift in the distribution of
certain regional surface. The lower the position of a weather events relative to average conditions.
region, the higher the air temperature, and vice Climate change occurs over decades or longer and
versa, the higher the position of a region, the lower can usually be detected using statistical tests to
the air temperature [3,4]. Heat transport anomalies examine the variability of its features or changes in
carry heat from the land to the oceans where the its average temperature [7]. Climate change has a
climate is stressed by growing CO2 concentrations significant impact on the frequency and intensity of
in the atmosphere, causing the sea surface to warm. severe events or natural disasters, as well as the
Heat transport anomalies compensate for the "lost" extent to which these occurrences affect
radiation pressure over land when the climate is

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POSITRON Vol. 13, No. 02 (2023), Hal. 166 - 174
ecosystems and socioeconomic elements that cause
environmental and societal damage [8,9].
Aceh Province has a mountainous to flat
topography. About 32% of Aceh's area has flat and
sloping topography and around 68% has hilly to
mountainous topography. The central part of Aceh
has a mountainous topography which is a part of
Bukit Barisan mountains. The northern and eastern
parts of Aceh have hilly and sloping topography
[10].
Besides its high rainfall variability [11],
differences in temperature are also noticeable in
both the west and the east of Aceh Province. The
objective is to analyze temperature changes and
their future projection in Aceh. This research is
expected to be able to provide education and
information regarding climate change projections
for Aceh Province, in this case, the temperature
changes.
2. Methodology
The data used in this processing are monthly
average temperature data from global climate
atmospheric model (GCAM) outputs, e.g.,
csiromk3.6-hist-1986-2005-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp45-
2016-2035-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp45-2046-2065-tas,
csiromk3.6-rcp45-2081-2100-tas, csiromk3.6-
rcp85-2016-2035-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp85-2046-
2065-tas, and csiromk3.6-rcp85-2081-2100-tas.
The RCP scenarios considered in this study
were RCP8.5 and RCP 4.5. RCP 8.5 is a scenario that
results in ongoing increases in greenhouse gas
emissions. The MESSAGE model and IIASA, Austria
were used to creating this scenario. RCP4.5 is a
scenario for stabilizing radiative forcing beyond
2100 without surpassing the long-term radiative
forcing target limit [12,13]. The GCAM modeling
adapted to this scenario is from the US Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory JGRCI.
In this study, temperature spatial projection
data were interpolated using the Inversion Distance
Weighted (IDW) approach. The IDW method is a
type of interpolation that produces results that are
limited to the values in the sample data. This
approach employs the sample data's average,
therefore the value cannot be less than the
minimum or more than the sample data. As a result,
the interpolation results of this model cannot
represent the highest summits of hills or the
deepest valleys. The IDW method outperforms the
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Kriging method in terms of interpolation accuracy.
This is because all of the IDW method's results give
values near to the minimum and maximum values
of the data samples. While the Kriging method
occasionally produces interpolation results with a
narrow range. The power settings and sample
count have no discernible effect on the
interpolation results.
Temperature changes are projected in order to
detect temperature anomalies or fluctuations in
values in the future. Temperature change is
projected by subtracting the projected temperature
value from the base temperature value from 1986
to 2005. This projection produces spatial data that
has been interpolated using IDW.
Reading climate data in NetCDF format using
GRADS software, data processing using CDO
software, providing a coordinate system to data
using QGIS software [14], making climate change
projection maps using ArcGIS software, and making
climate change graphs using spreadsheet program
are the work steps of this research. Figure 1 depicts
the flow chart of this study.
Figure 1. The flow charts.
3. Results and Discussion
The csiromk3.6-hist-1986-2005-tas data
shows that the lowest average monthly
temperature from 1986 to 2005 occurred in
February, i.e., 20.9 °C, and the highest average
monthly temperature occurred in October, i.e., 28. 6
°C. Seasonal average temperatures from 1986 to
2005 show that the lowest monsoon temperatures
are in the DJF (December January February)
months which is 28.1 °C and the highest
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POSITRON Vol. 13, No. 02 (2023), Hal. 166 - 174
temperatures are in the SON (September, October,
November) months which is 28.5 °C, whereas in the
transition months MAM (March, April, May) and JJA
(June, July, August) the temperature is 28.3 °C. The
monthly average temperature pattern from 1986 to
2005 can be seen in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Average monthly temperatures for the
period 1986-2005.
Figure 3 where Gayo Lues area which has a
higher altitude than other Aceh regions, i.e., around
3448 meters, is the area that has the lowest
temperature ranging from 15.9-18 ℃. In contrast,
the lowest areas which are generally on the coast
have temperatures ranging from 28-30 ℃. Hence,
we could notice that topography is a local factor
that influences temperature variations in Aceh
Province. In addition, the areas in the back of the
mountains which encounter leeward condition, for
instance on the north and east coasts of Aceh may
have high temperatures, particularly during the
southwest monsoon which lasts from May to
September. Those could be the examples of local
factor that may affect temperature variations in
Aceh Province.
Figure 3. The annual average temperature for the
period 1986-2005 and the topography of Aceh
Province.
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The annual average temperature trend from
1986 to 2005 in Aceh Province is shown in Figure 4
where the lowest annual average temperature was
in 1994, i.e., 27.4 °C, and the highest temperature
was in 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, and 2005 which is
28.6 °C. The trend of the seasonal average DJF
temperature in Figure 5 shows that the highest
temperature occurred in 2003, i.e., 28.5 °C, and the
lowest temperature occurred in 1994, i.e., 27.3°C, a
change in temperature this season was 0.026°C. It
is due to a positive IOD event that occurred in 2003
which then affected climate variability in the
province of Aceh. A study by [15] showed the
annual IOD time-series where it is shown that at the
end of 2003 a positive IOD signal appeared which
further cause the air temperature on December
remains high. This condition emerges as a result of
the cold sea surface temperature around Aceh
Waters which cause a low rate of evaporation so
that the cloud cover in the sky becomes less. Hence
the exposure of direct sunlight on the ground may
lead the air temperature to rise. Meanwhile in 1994
there was no climate anomaly. As shown by work
done by [15], IOD signal was still within the normal
range, thus, the temperature remains in average
condition ranging between 26-27°C.
Figure 4. The annual average temperature trend
from 1986 to 2005 in Aceh Province.
The trend of the MAM seasonal average
temperature in Figure 5 shows that the highest
temperature occurred in 2003, i.e., 28.5°C, and the
lowest temperature occurred in 1995, i.e., 27.2°C, a
change in temperature this season was 0.033°C.
The seasonal average temperature trend JJA in
Figure 5 shows that the highest temperature
occurred in 1991, i.e., 29 °C, and the lowest
temperature occurred in 1994, i.e., 27.1 °C, the
temperature change in this season is 0.021 °C. The
seasonal average temperature trend SON in Figure
5 shows that the highest temperature occurred in
1997, i.e., 28.9 °C, and the lowest temperature
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POSITRON Vol. 13, No. 02 (2023), Hal. 166 - 174
occurred in 1994, i.e., 27.4 °C with a temperature
change this season of 0.013°C. On March, Aceh
Province is situated in the Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) zone, which is the path on
the Earth surface with the highest average
temperature where the sun is directly above Aceh
Province. However, the maximum temperature
does not occur when the sun is directly above Aceh
Province. There is a lag between the moment of
maximum irradiation and the moment of maximum
temperature increase. Although the sun is right on
the Equator on March 21, the annual maximum
temperature in Indonesian is not precisely rise on
March, but there is a delay of about one month [16].
It is also happening in Aceh. Therefore, the air
becomes uncomfortable in Aceh Province is on
April. Lack of wind and high humidity on April lead
the air temperature to feel hotter and exhausting
from April to May in Aceh Province.
Figure 5. Annual average temperature trends and
seasonal average temperature trends.
Figure 6. Projected Changes in Monthly Average
Temperatures for the Period 1986-2005.
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Temperatures in 1994-1995 were the lowest of
all temperature data from 1986 to 2005, possibly
because the El Niño event occurred in 1994-1995,
causing sea surface temperatures to rise, and land
surface temperatures to fall. The temperature in
1999-1998 became the highest in the annual
average temperature from 1986 to 2005,
presumably because another incident occurred this
year in which the sea surface temperature declined,
causing the land surface temperature to rise. A
study by [17] showed a moderate correlation
between ENSO and rainfall variability in Greater
Aceh district. It is revealed that ENSO might
influence the fluctuations of air temperature in
Aceh where during El Niño temperature is rising
while rainfall is reducing leading to prolonged
drought in Aceh Province.
Figure 7. Spatial projection of monthly average
temperature in Aceh Province.
Figure 7 depicts spatial projections of monthly
average temperatures in Aceh Province derived
from csiro mk3.6 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 data and
interpolated using IDW. The monthly average
temperature projection is separated into three time
periods: short-term (2016-2035), medium-term
(2046-2065), and long-term (beyond 2065), (2081-
2100). Figure 7 depicts the anticipated maximum
temperature in the long-term RCP 8.5 scenario,
which is around 30 °C, as well as the expected
minimum temperature in the short-term RCP 4.5
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POSITRON Vol. 13, No. 02 (2023), Hal. 166 - 174

scenario, which is less than 18 °C. Figure 4.5 depicts DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON. The temperature
a projection diagram of the monthly average classification is divided into nine colors, i.e.,
temperature at a longitude of 95.3723 and a temperature < 18°C, 20°C -22°C, 22°C -24°C, 24°C -
latitude of 5.3747. RCP4.5 is a scenario of 25°C, 25°C -26°C, 26°C-28 °C, 28°C-30°C, > 30°C.
greenhouse gas concentrations where there is a The seasonal spatial projection for each period
mitigation effort to cope with it. RCP4.5 represents shown in Figures 4.8 to 4.11 shows that the
a stable scenario. Although there is an increase in maximum temperature projected in the long-term
temperature due to the increased concentrations of period RCP 8.5 scenario is around 30 °C and the
greenhouse gases, with proper implementation of minimum temperature is projected in the short-
mitigation, the temperature is expected to stabilize term RCP 4.5 scenario, which is less than 18 °C. As
in the future. Meanwhile, RCP8.5 represents a Aceh is located in Equatorial region, no fluctuation
worse scenario where there is no act on mitigation of air temperature is found in the warming of the
to combat the changing climate. Consequently, hot Earth's surface. The intensity of daily heating is
temperatures hit the world which at last threaten relatively similar throughout the year. Even if it is
our food security. found a difference in warming in each season, it
does not have any significant impact.
The monthly average temperature in Aceh
Province is projected from csiro data mk3.6 RCP4.5
and RCP8.5 throughout three time periods: short-
term (2016-2035), medium-term (2046-2065), and
long-term (2081-2100). Figure 8 depicts a
projection diagram of the yearly average
temperature at a longitude of 95.3723 and latitude
of 5.3747. Figure 4.7 depicts the anticipated
maximum temperature in the long-term RCP 8.5
scenario, which is around 31.55 °C, and the
estimated minimum temperature in the short-term
RCP 4.5 scenario, which is less than 28.89 °C.

Figure 8. Annual average temperature projection

diagram.
Figures 9 to 12 show spatial predictions of
seasonal average temperatures in Aceh Province
using csiro data mk3.6 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
interpolated using IDW. The seasonal average
temperature projection is separated into three time
periods: short-term (2016-2035), medium-term
(2046-2065), and long-term (beyond 2065). (2081-
2100). The anticipated seasonal average
temperature is further separated into four periods:
Figure 9. The projected spatial seasonal mean
temperature for the DJF period.
The results of spatial projections of average
seasonal temperatures show that the temperature
distribution has the highest values in the months of
JJA and the months of MAM. While the lowest
temperature distribution is in the months of DJF
and followed by the months of SON.

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POSITRON Vol. 13, No. 02 (2023), Hal. 166 - 174
Figure 10. Projection of the spatial seasonal mean
temperature of the MAM period.
Figure 11. Projection of spatial seasonal mean
temperature for the JJA period.
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Figure 12. Projection of the spatial seasonal mean
temperature of the SON period.
The projection diagram of the monthly average
temperature change at the point of longitude
95.3723 and latitude 5.3747 is shown in Figure 15
that the highest change in temperature increase
occurs in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the period 2081-
2100, where the highest increase occurs in July,
which is 4°C. The lowest temperature increase
occurs in the projected RPP 4.5 scenario for the
2016-2035 period, i.e., in December at 0.554°C.
Figure 13. Projected Changes in Monthly Average
Temperature for the period 1986-2005.
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POSITRON Vol. 13, No. 02 (2023), Hal. 166 - 174
Figure 14. Projected changes in monthly average
temperature in Aceh Province.
The spatial projection of changes in the monthly
average temperature in Aceh Province is shown in
Figure 14. The classification of temperature
changes in Aceh Province is divided into 11
classifications. The highest temperature increase is
shown by the projection of the RCP 8.5 scenario for
the period 2081-2100, i.e., in Subulussalam region.
The lowest temperature increase is shown by the
projection of the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the
period 2016 to 2035.
Figure 15. Projected annual average temperature
change.
The projected diagram of the annual average
temperature change is shown in Figure 15.
Projected changes in the annual average
temperature are carried out using scenarios RCP
4.5 and 8.5. The projected period for changes in
average temperature is divided into three periods,
i.e., 2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100.
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Changes in annual average temperature increase
continue to increase from the period 2016-2035 to
the period 2081-2100 with the highest temperature
increase occurring in the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Figure 16. Projected changes in the seasonal
average temperature for the JJA month
Spatial projections of seasonal average
temperature changes in Aceh Province are shown in
Figure 16 for JJA. The classification of temperature
changes in Aceh Province is divided into 11
classifications. The seasonal average temperature
projection is divided into four periods, i.e., months
of DJF, months of MAM, months of JJA, and months
of SON. The results of the spatial projection of
seasonal average temperature changes show that
the highest increase in temperature values is in the
months of JJA (Figure 16) and the months of MAM.
While the lowest temperature increase is in the
months of DJF and followed by the months of SON.
4. Conclusion
The RCP 4.5 scenario and the RCP 8.5 scenario
are used to analyze expected temperature changes
in the near term (2016-2035), medium term (2046-
2065), and long term (2081-2100). The forecast
using the RCP 4.5 scenario indicates less change in
temperature rise than the projection using the RCP
8.5 scenario, which shows a temperature rise of up
to 5°C.
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This analysis of Aceh Province's temperature [7] Aldrian, E., Dümenil Gates, L. and Widodo, F.
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