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Monthly Oil Market Report


November 2023

Refinitiv Oil Research


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Summary Points: Quarterly GDP Figures (%) Quarterly GDP Figures (%)
Supply, Demand and Stocks US Eurozone UK China India Previous Latest

• The IMF kept its global GDP growth for 2023 unchanged 8
at 3% in October but revised down its 2024 estimate by 0.1
percentage points to 2.9%. IMF chief economist Pierre- 20
Olivier Gourinchas said that the fund remained concerned 6
about risks related to the real estate crisis in China, volatile
commodity prices, geopolitical fragmentation, and a
resurgence in inflation. 0 4

• Oil demand growth forecasts for 2023 remain almost


unchanged but 2024 forecasts are being revised down, as 2
oil demand in China remains robust despite its challenging -20
economic conditions.
0
2021 2022 2023 CNGDP=ECI INGDPQ=ECI EUGDQY=ECI
• Compared to September, OPEC output increased by
180,000 bpd in October. OPEC-10 production rose by
150,000 bpd. Angolan and Nigerian output showed gains
last month. Quarterly Supply (mnbpd) Quarterly Demand (mnbpd)

• OPEC-10 production in August was around 557,000 bpd OPEC Supply Non OPEC Supply OECD Supply US Demand Europe D… China De… Other Asia … OECD De…
lower than its pledged output. West African members of the 50
group produced over 667,000 bpd less than the target.
40
• After rising by almost 2 million bpd in 2023, non-OPEC
20
production is likely to increase by 1.25 million bpd next
year.
20
• Current supply and demand projections show a drop in 40
global oil stocks of more than 570,000 bpd in 2023, which
translates into almost 210 million bbl of inventory draw.
Global inventories increased by almost 132 million bbl in
0 0
2022. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20- 20- 20- 20- 21- 21- 21- 21- 22- 22- 22- 22- 23- 23- 23- 23- 20- 20- 20- 20- 21- 21- 21- 21- 22- 22- 22- 22- 23- 23- 23- 23-
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

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Benchmark Prices ($/bbl) Brent / WTI Spread ($/bbl) Brent Market Structure
15 LCOc6-LCOc1 LCOc12-LCOc1 LCOc24-LCOc1
Brent (LCOc1) WTI (CLc1)

10

100
5 0

50
0

-50
0 -5
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

Brent / Dubai EFS M3 Arbitrage WTI Market Structure


20 CLc6-CLc1 CLc12-CLc1 CLc24-CLc1

10

10

5 0

0
-50
-10
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

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Brent vs USD Brent vs Dow Jones Industrial Avg Brent vs S&P 500
Brent (LCOc1) Dow Jones (.DJI) Brent (LCOc1) S&P 500 (.INX)
Brent (LCOc1) USD (.DXY)
40K 5K

110
100 100 100 4K
30K
100
3K
50 50 50

20K
90 2K

0 0 0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

WTI vs USD WTI vs Dow Jones Industrial Avg WTI vs S&P 500
WTI (CLc1) USD (.DXY) WTI (CLc1) Dow Jones (.DJI) WTI (CLc1) S&P 500 (.INX)
40K 5K

110
100 100 100 4K
30K
100
3K
50 50 50

90 20K
2K

0 0 0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 2018 2020 2022

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October production from OPEC was at 27.90 million bpd, with the OPEC10 production at 22.82 million bpd. The Oct production was 0.17 million bpd higher m-o-m while output from the OPEC-10 members
was up by 0.14 million bpd. Compliance to the cuts was at 304% of the pledged numbers. The announcements to the extension of the voluntary cuts is expected to keep Saudi output at the 9 million bpd
range for the rest of 2023. Nigerian output continues to increase with October levels hitting their highest since December 2020. Iranian output also continues to increase with levels last seen in 2018 and
the country's oil minister had been quoted by the state media that the crude output would reach 3.4 million bpd by Q3 2023.

OPEC Monthly Production (mnbpd)


Date Algeria Angola Congo Equatorial Guinea Gabon Iraq Iran Kuwait Libya Nigeria Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela

May 2023 0.96 1.10 0.28 0.05 0.19 4.00 2.95 2.55 1.12 1.40 10.00 2.89 0.74
June 2023 0.95 1.09 0.28 0.05 0.19 4.03 2.90 2.55 1.12 1.42 9.96 2.89 0.75
July 2023 0.95 1.14 0.28 0.06 0.20 4.20 2.90 2.55 1.10 1.30 9.02 2.89 0.75
August 2023 0.94 1.08 0.27 0.06 0.19 4.22 3.10 2.55 1.12 1.37 9.01 2.89 0.76
September 2023 0.95 1.05 0.27 0.06 0.19 4.24 3.15 2.55 1.14 1.48 8.98 2.91 0.76
October 2023 0.96 1.10 0.26 0.05 0.19 4.26 3.17 2.55 1.15 1.53 9.00 2.92 0.76

Source: Reuters OPEC Survey

African OPEC members Production History Middle East OPEC members Production History
Angola Congo Gabon Equatorial Guinea Algeria Libya Nigeria Iran Kuwait UAE Iraq Saudi Arabia

1.5 20
1.1 11
1.2 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 9
9 9
4
1.2 1.2
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
1.1
5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1.1 10
1.0 1.0
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
2
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
3 3
1.1 1.1
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
0 0
Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Mar 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023 Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Mar 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023

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North Sea Differentials West Africa Differentials Mediterranean Differentials


BonnyLight Forcados QuaIboe Cabinda Girrasol AzeriBTC CPCBlend SaharanBlend
Forties Oseberg Troll Ekofisk
10 10

5
5 0

0
0 -10

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

North America Differentials Middle East Differentials Russian Differentials


LLS Mars Bakken WTIMidland WCS OmanDubai QatarLand QatarMarine Murban Urals NWE UralsMED ESPO
20

0
0

-20 10

-20
-40
0

-60 -40
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

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• Diesel flows into Europe in October tumbled to their lowest since May 2022 on the back of weaker industrial demand An LSEG
LSEG Business
Business
An
and many refineries in key supply locations such as India, the Middle East and US closing units for maintenance.
Global shipments this month fell to 4.64 million mt, which is a massive drop from 5.67 million mt last month, Refinitiv
tracking shows, and well below the 7.31 million mt delivered a year ago when Europe ramped up purchases ahead of LGO Futures vs EFS
the February EU ban on Russian fuels. Despite the slowdown in euro zone manufacturing activities, buyers are
returning to stock up with the onset of colder weather as a large turnaround programme in the region curbed local LGO EFS
supplies. Cracks are holding their own at around the $30/bbl mark, which is almost four times that of gasoline and
double pre-Ukraine invasion levels. 0
• Jet fuel shipments from the East of Suez to Europe arriving in October were estimated at 1.71 million mt, down 1,500
slightly than the already low 1.85 million mt delivered in September, due mostly to refinery maintenance in the Middle
East and India even as demand stayed robust. Exports reached a record 2.38 million mt in August. The stronger jet -100
fuel fundamentals have widened the regrade further while differentials for CIF NWE cargoes have risen sharply to
$68.25/mt, nearly 13% up since start of October. These values suggest European refiners have a big incentive to
boost jet fuel output but it’s unclear if such moves have been made given the risk of going into winter with limited 1,000 -200
heating oil inventory.
• Northwest Europe (NWE) gasoline exports in October to the United States (US) and West Africa (WAF), its two key
markets, increased on the back of a surge in loadings for WAF, particularly Nigeria, while that to the US were stable. -300
NWE shipments last month on the two routes rose to 1.62 million mt, a sharp increase from a revised 1.31 million mt in
September and a tad less than 1.68 million mt in August, Refinitiv tracking shows. Exports so far in November are 500
lagging behind at 238,000 mt. Europe margins are at their seasonal lows with more challenges on the horizon as test -400
runs are planned in December at the Nigerian Dangote refinery while Belgium seeks to emulate the Netherlands and Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2023
tighten export-product specifications.

EBOB and MOGAS Arb SWAP NWE Naphtha Crack vs Brent SWAP
EBOB MOGAS Arb Spread NAPHCRK Brent (LCOc1)
40 1,200

1,000
20
1,000 100
800

0
600

500 50
-20 400
Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2021 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2023

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Northwest Europe Refinery Margins US Gulf Coast Refinery Slate Singapore Refinery Slate
Brent_Cracking NWERefSlate 14

9
15
13

8
10 12

7
11
5

10 6
Jan 2024 Mar 2024 May 2024 Jul 2024 Sep 2024 Jan 2024 Mar 2024 May 2024 Jul 2024 Sep 2024 Jan 2024 Mar 2024 May 2024 Jul 2024 Sep 2024

Mediterranean Refinery Margins US Gulf Coast Refinery Margins Singapore Refinery Margins
MEDRefSlate Urals_Cracking EsSider_Cracking WTI Cracking Margin Mars Cracking Margin Murban Dubai
20 4 20

40
15 15
3

10 10
20 2

5 5
1

0 0 0
Jan 2024 Mar 2024 May 2024 Jul 2024 Sep 2024 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

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Singapore refining margins ($/bbl) China refining throughput (million MT)


Crude Slate Cracking C1 Dubai Cracking C1 Murban Cracking C1 Upper Zakum Cracking C1
20
60

50
Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Jul 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2023

Indian refinery throughput (kT)


Med refining margins ($/bbl)
24K
Med Crude Slate Cracking C1 Med CPC Blend Cracking C1 Med Urals Cracking C1
40 22K

20
20K
0

-20 18K
May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Jan 2022 Jul 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2023

NWE refining margins ($/bbl) Japan refinery throughput (kbpd)


NWE Crude Slate Cracking C1 NWE Urals Cracking C1 NWE Arab Light Cracking C1 3,000

40

20 2,500

-20 2,000
May 2023 Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Jul 2022 Jan 2023 Jul 2023

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West Africa Freight Costs (Dirty) Russia Freight Costs (Dirty) North Sea Freight Costs (Dirty)
Bonny T-Jamnagar VLCC Bonny T-Rotterdam Su… Bonny T-Lavera Su… Novorossiysk–IT Augusta Suezmax Primorsk–Rotterdam Aframax GB Hound Point–Qingdao/… GB Hound Point–Uls… GB Sullom Voe…

30

30
25

10
20
20

15

5
10 10
Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023

US Freight Costs (Dirty) Northwest Europe Freight Costs (Clean) European Diesel Arb Freight Costs (Clean)
Corpus Christi–GB Milford Suezmax Corpus Christi–IN Vizag VLCC Rotterdam-… Fawley-Ne… Rotterda… Rotterda… Rotterda… Yanbu-Le Havre Houston-Amsterdam Houston-Rotterdam

40 40
34.15
50
35
30
34.10 40
30

20
30
25
34.05

10 20 20
Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Nov 2023

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Freight rates for key routes from Middle East Freight rates for key routes from West Africa Freight rates for key routes in Med
ME-China-VLCC ME-NWE-VLCC ME-USG-VLCC WAF-China-VLCC WAF-USG-VLCC WAF-USAC-Suezmax Cross Med-Suezmax Cross Med-Aframax

6 4

3
4
$/bbl

$/bbl

$/bbl
2
2

1 1
Mar 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023 Nov 2023 Mar 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023 Nov 2023 Mar 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023 Nov 2023

VLCC floating storage Suezmax floating storage Aframax floating storage


Floating storage, confirmed excluding Iran (bbl) Floating storage, potential e… Floating storage, confirmed (bbl) Floating storage, potential (bbl) Floating storage, confirmed (bbl) Floating storage, potential (bbl)

40M 20M

30M 15M
10M

20M 10M

5M
10M 5M

0M 0M 0M
Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

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• October seaborne exports of crude oil from OPEC were assessed
at 19.44 million bpd, a m-o-m decline of 0.13 million bpd and a y- OPEC Monthly Exports (mnbpd)
o-y decrease of 1.21 million bpd. OPEC Country 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10

• Saudi Arabian crude exports continued to recover from August Algeria 0.38 0.28 0.38 0.35 0.38 0.30 0.43 0.42 0.26 0.39 0.41 0.30 0.34
lows to be assessed at 6.66 million bpd, a m-o-m increase of 0.21 Angola 1.16 1.15 1.04 1.12 0.95 0.98 1.03 1.08 1.12 1.29 1.08 1.12 1.27
million bpd. This is still below their YTD monthly average of 6.77 Congo-Brazzaville / 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.25 0.30 0.22 0.23 0.30 0.21 0.30 0.22 0.28 0.20
million bpd. Total crude exports from the Saudi & Kuwait neutral Republic of Congo
zone accounted for 10.1 million bbl. Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.03 0.06
Gabon 0.24 0.14 0.20 0.20 0.24 0.17 0.27 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.20 0.25
• Exports from Middle East OPEC members accounted for 75.7% Iran 0.27 0.33 0.59 0.54 0.58 0.29 1.01 0.66 0.73 0.50 0.41 0.50 0.33
of all OPEC exports, while African members accounted for a further Iraq 3.79 3.58 3.66 3.46 3.80 3.67 3.25 3.46 3.50 3.59 3.49 3.61 3.59
22.8%, with Venezuela contributing for 1.5%. Shipments from Kuwait 2.00 1.84 1.69 1.94 2.01 1.77 1.80 1.72 1.79 1.50 1.67 1.50 1.56
Saudi Arabia alone accounted for more than a third of all OPEC Libya 1.00 0.88 0.92 0.90 1.01 0.94 0.84 1.03 0.85 0.93 0.89 0.95 0.87
exports last month. Nigeria 1.08 1.22 1.44 1.50 1.47 1.55 1.27 1.32 1.57 1.08 1.34 1.45 1.43
Saudi Arabia 7.36 7.26 7.62 6.75 6.99 7.23 7.27 6.96 7.04 6.65 5.57 6.45 6.66
• The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza broke on 07th United Arab Emirates 2.98 2.95 2.81 2.84 2.93 2.86 2.76 2.77 2.98 2.76 2.77 2.77 2.58
Oct, which caused a heightened threat for supply disruption Venezuela 0.11 0.08 0.22 0.14 0.20 0.24 0.43 0.36 0.27 0.41 0.32 0.42 0.29
pushing benchmark prices up by 7.5% the same week. However,
Total 20.65 19.99 20.83 20.04 20.92 20.26 20.62 20.37 20.59 19.67 18.47 19.57 19.44
with no actual disruption to trade flows and no escalation until now
into the other Middle East countries, prices have retreated since to
pre-conflict levels

• The demand weakness in Asia continues to prevail, although Seasonality of OPEC crude oil exports (2018 OPEC Exports for Report month(mnbpd)
Chinese arrivals in October saw a marginal uptick. Saudi Arabia &
Russia confirmed that they would continue their voluntary cuts until
onwards) 100%

7.4%

6.5%

4.5%

1.8%

1.7%

1.5%

1.3%

1.1%

0.3%
8.0%

100.0%
13.3%
the end of the year which indicates that demand recovery could be Max Current Year Min

18.5%
strained leading into Q1 2024.
800 750.8

34.2%
• Saudi Arabia has announced that it would maintain its December
50%
OSP unchanged for the flagship Arab Light grade to Asia - a $4/bbl
premium over the Dubai / Oman index. This was inline with
mnbbls

expectations as refining margins continue to remain stressed, with


600
Singapore refinery margin dropping from $6.72 to $2.79 in October.
497.0
0%
• Nigeria's NNPC has launched a new grade of crude called t
bia Iraq rat… wai eria gola ibya eria n la n a al
ra i u g L Alg Ira zue abo ille … uine Tot
Nembe as the country's production has been ramping up. Nembe i A m K Ni An ne G av l G
was formerly added to the Bonny Light stream but is now made 400 aud abE Ve zz
ra ator
ia
S r B
0 5 10 dA o - u
available as a separate grade. The first cargoes of Nembe were n ite ng Eq
sold in October as two 950,000 bbl shipments to France and Load Month U Co

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• Monthly condensate exports from the OPEC in October OPEC Condensate Monthly Exports (million bbl)
dropped marginally to 7.7 million bbl, a m-o-m decrease of 0.1 Load Country 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10
million bbl. 
Algeria 4.7 1.0 3.2 2.3 3.5 3.1 1.4 2.2 1.5 0.7 2.3 4.7 4.6
• Algeria accounted for 59.7% of the volumes, with a total export Iran 1.6 0.8
of 4.6 million bbl. The cargoes were destined to Italy, Spain, Iraq 0.3
China, Gibraltar and the United States. Kuwait 0.4
Libya 3.7 1.2 3.8 3.4 2.5 3.7 3.1 2.5 4.3 2.5 2.4 3.1 3.0
• Libya accounted for a total of 3.0 million bbl. Exports were United Arab Emirates 0.4
headed to Germany, Spain, France and Netherlands. Total 10.2 2.2 7.8 6.5 5.9 6.8 4.5 4.7 5.8 3.2 4.7 7.8 7.7

OPEC Condensate Exports by Load Country (million bbl) OPEC Condensate by Destination (million bbl)
Load Country Algeria Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya United Arab Emirates Algeria Libya

10.2
10

3.7 7.8 7.8 7.7


6.8
6.5
5.9 5.8 Gibraltar 0.7
3.1 3.0 Spain 1.7
3.8
1.6 4.7 4.7
5 3.7 4.5 Spain 1.2 France (…
2.5
3.4
0.8 4.3 3.2
2.5 2.4
2.2 3.1 United States 0.8
4.7 4.7 4.6
3.5 2.5
1.2 3.2 3.1
2.3 2.2 2.3
1.0 1.4 1.5
0.7
0
2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 China 0.8 Italy 0.7 Germany 0.6 Netherlands 0.6

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Saudi Arabia Exports by month (mnbpd) Saudi Exports by load port & dest region Saudi Arabia & Kuwait Neutral Zone
8 cargoes for Report month by Destination
7.6 Ras al Khafji
APAC-Others
(million bbl)
7.4 Grade Khafji Ratawi (Wafra Ratawi) Eocene (Wafra Eocene)
7.3
Yanbu
7.0 United Arab E… 0.9
7 APAC-Top 4 India 0.4
6.7 United Arab Emirates
China 3.5
6.7 0.9

North America India 0.4


10.1
Ras Tanura mnbbl
Med and North Africa
6

5.6 South Africa and Indian Ocean


Singapore 0.6
South Korea 3.3
Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Middle East

Iraq Exports by month & grade split (mnbpd) Iraq exports by Grade & Destination (mnbpd) Kuwait exports by Grade & Dest (mnbpd)
Basrah Bl… Basrah H… Basrah Light Basrah M… Kirkuk Kurdish C… Basrah Medium Basrah Heavy Kuwait Blend Kuwait Super Light South Ratqa (Lower Fars)

Turkey Spain
(Blank) 0.16
0.03 China 0.03 0.03
2.35 2.63 Indonesia 0.03
2.45 2.68 Japan 0.11 China 0.32
2.61
3 2.25
2.20 India 0.48 China 0.80 India 0.03

2 Croatia 0.03
(Blank) 0.06
3.59 Vietnam 0.25
1.47 India 0.07

United… 0.13 million bpd Croatia 0.03 million bpd


United Arab Emir… France… 0.05 Japan 0.11
1 1.26 0.09
1.00 1.02 1.01 0.97 Greece 0.21
Spain 0.03 United Arab Emirates Myanmar 0.08
0.80
0.69 0.07
Netherlands 0.13
0 Italy 0.20 India 0.58 Taiwan 0.17 South Korea 0.17
Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

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UAE Exports by Load ports (mnbpd) UAE exports by Grade & Destination (mnbpd) ADNOC exports by Load port / berth (mnbpd)
Das Island 2.98 Murban Upper Zakum Das Umm Lulu Crude Oil Dubai Mubarraz Zirku Island Das Island Fujairah Jebel Dhanna/Ru… Mubarraz Island
3 2.77 2.76 2.77 2.77
Fateh Terminal
2.58 India (Blank) 0.04 Zirku Island - Crude Oil Terminal SP…
Fujairah Thailand 0.07 0.01 0.01
Jebel Dhanna/Ruwais …
Singapore 0.02 0.19
Hamriyah (Sharjah) Malaysia 0.04
2 Japan 0.28
South Korea
Jebel Ali 2 0.04 Zirku Island - C…
ADCO Fujairah…
0.21 0.79
Jebel Dhanna/Ru… Philippines
0.02 Malaysia 0.10
Khor Fakkan 2.58 Singa… 0.02
South Korea
2.45
Mubarraz Island Japan 0.31 million bpd 0.07 million bpd
1
1 Thailand 0.12
Zirku Island

flows mnbpd Indonesia 0.02 ADCO Fujairah S…


China 0.02 0.27
Das Island - Crude Oil S…
Netherlands 0.03
China 0.55 Das Island - Crude Oil SPM 6 0.16
0 0 India 0.01
May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023 0.42

Qatar exports by month & grade (mnbpd) Oman exports by month (mnbpd) Middle East exports by dest region
Al Rayyan Al Shaheen Das Qatar Land Qatar Marine
1.0 1.06
0.99 0.99 1.01
0.97 APAC-Others
0.19
Oman
0.20 0.90 0.90
0.6 0.16 Kuwait
0.13 0.21
0.21 0.19 0.13
United Arab Emirates
0.18 0.16 0.10
0.16 APAC-Top 4
0.4 0.5
0.12 0.13
0.32 0.36 Iraq
0.32 0.32
0.27 0.28 0.28 Med and North Africa
0.2
Middle East
Saudi Arabia
0.0 0.0
Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

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Monthly Oil Market Report - November 2023
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• Crude exports from North African OPEC member Libya dropped by 80,000 bpd
m-o-m to be assessed at 0.87 million bpd. Algerian exports increased by 40,000
African OPEC exports by Destination for Report month (mnbpd)
bpd to 340,000 bpd.
China Spain United St… South Africa United Ki…
• The Dubai - Brent spread retracted significantly from its gains in September,
with October levels ending at $1.85/bbl from a high of $4.15/bbl towards the end
of Sept. While the Israel - Hamas conflict played a role in the uncertainly over
Middle-East supplies, they have had little impact to the physical trade flows.
Nigeria 0.09
Congo-Braz… Nigeria 0.09
Dubai Brent EFS ($/bbl)
10 Libya 0.12

Nigeria 0.33
DUB-EFS-1M

Libya 0.08 Alg… An…


Libya 0.04 Algeria… Angola 0.09 Algeri…
0 Canada Netherlands Malaysia Portugal
Gab… Nig…
Angola 0.72 Equatorial G… Libya 0… An… Nig… …
Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Nigeria 0.…
Italy Nigeria 0.08 Ango… Lib… Libya …
African OPEC Exports for Report month (mnbpd) Nigeria … Al… Congo-Br…
France (Southern)
Nigeria 1.43 Australia Sout… Gre… Cro…

Nigeria 0.10
Angola 1.27 Algeria 0.03
Libya 0.07 Nigeria 0.07
Gabon… Liby… Nige…
Libya 0.87 Thailand Israel
Ta… Peru Ur… Si…
Libya 0.37 Gabo… Alg…
Algeria 0.34 Ang… Nig…
India
Cote DIvoire Co… Ni… Ni… Eq…
Gabon 0.25 Libya 0.05 Al… …
Indonesia Poland Ukraine
Angola … Ga… Nigeria 0.06
Congo-Brazzaville / Re… 0.20
Turkey Germ…
Sweden
Equatorial Guinea 0.06
Nigeria 0.29 Congo-… Lib… Nigeria 0.06 Gabon 0.03 Nigeri… Li… Angola

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• Nigerian exports held relatively steady, to be assessed at 1.43 million bpd, while Angolan exports were up by 150,000
bpd m-o-m with total exports assessed at 1.27 million bpd.
West African OPEC Exports by month (mnbpd)
• Gabon's exports increased by 50,000 bpd to 250,000 bpd, while shipments from Eq Guinea increased by 30,000 bpd.
Exports from Congo dropped by 80,000 bpd, to be assessed at 200,000 bpd, its lowest volumes for this year. Angola Congo-Brazzaville / Republic of … Equatorial Guinea Gabon Nigeria

West African OPEC exports by Destination Region for Report month (mnbpd) 3 1.50 1.57 1.45
1.43
1.55 1.08
1.27
Load Country APAC- APAC- Baltics Latin Med and North South Africa UKC/ West Total 1.08
Others Top 4 America North America and Indian NWE Africa
Africa Ocean 2
Angola 0.23 0.19 0.60 0.15 0.08 0.01 1.27
Congo-Brazzaville / 0.02 0.14 0.05 0.20
Republic of Congo 1 1.29 1.27
1.16 1.12 1.08 1.08
1.04
Equatorial Guinea 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.95
Gabon 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.02 0.25
Nigeria 0.08 0.12 0.07 0.37 0.25 0.09 0.39 0.06 1.43 0
Total 0.26 0.32 0.88 0.07 0.06 0.66 0.25 0.09 0.54 0.08 3.21 Oct 2022 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

Angolan exports by Grade (mnbpd) Nigerian exports by Grade (mnbpd) Other West African exports by Grade &
Destination (mnbpd)
Mondo Oyo
Ebok 0.03 0.01 … Spain
Gindungo 0.04 0.02 CJ Blend 0.04 Bonny Light 0.19 It…
Palanca 0.04 ina Rabi
Nemba 0.30 Egina 0.06 Ch … Lig
Hungo Blend i… ht/
Ma
Ce G… nd
0.05 Usan 0.06 Forcados Blend orial


uat

Ne
0.18 Eq

t…
ji

Pazflor 0.05
Amenam Blend

ia
Ind

o…
0.06

Braz
N'K
Sangos
1.27 1.43

il
0.06 Okwuibome

Rabi
blic of Congo
0.06
0.51

Gabon
Netherlands

C…
Clov 0.07 million bpd Mostarda Akpo Blend million bpd
Jones Creek million bpd

Repu
0.13 0.07

Dussa

Franc
0.12

e/

e (S
fu
vill
Saturno 0.08 ERHA 0.08


zz
nd
ra

Ble

Eta
-B
go

m
Con
Bonga 0.12 en e

Br
Plutonio 0.08 Olombendo 0.10 Agbami 0.09 Dj

az
Ma il
n…
Girassol 0.08 Dalia 0.10 Brass River 0.10 Qua Iboe 0.11 Ch
ina Ma
lay…

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North African OPEC exports by Dest Region for Report month (mnbpd) North African OPEC Exports including Condensate by month (mnbpd)
Algeria Libya
UKC/NWE
Algeria 1.5 1.12
1.10 1.11
North America 1.04 1.06
0.94 0.97 0.97
0.99
APAC-Top 4 0.92
1.0
Med and North Africa

Libya 0.5
Black Sea 0.54
0.48 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.49
0.42 0.40
0.31 0.31
Baltics
0.0
APAC-Others Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Mar 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023

Algerian exports including Condensate by Grade & Dest (mnbpd) Libyan exports including Condensate by Grade & Dest (mnbpd)

United States 0.03 Canada 0.02 Es Sider France (Northern) 0.02


Italy 0.02
Mesla Thailand 0.02
Spain 0.05
Italy 0.02
El Sharara
Italy 0.14
France (Southern) Italy 0.04
0.10 Mellitah Condensate
Italy 0.02 Germany 0.02
Amna United States
0.03 Poland 0.02
Saharan Blend Gibraltar 0.02
0.49 Brega
Italy 0.03 0.97 Romania 0.02
Algerian Condensate million bpd Bu Attifel million bpd
China 0.02 Spain 0.05
Greece 0.02 Spain 0.04
Saharan Blend
Netherlands 0.02 (Blank) 0.03
Zueitina
South Korea 0.03 France (Southern)
India 0.03 Indonesia 0.03
Bouri (Buri) 0.02
Italy 0.03
Portugal 0.03 Al Jurf Netherlands 0.02
Italy 0.06 United Kingdom 0.06
Netherlands 0.03 Italy 0.09
Sirtica Blend

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Monthly Oil Market Report - November 2023
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• Key crude oil differentials in the North Sea improved in October, but the market started showing
some weakness in the second half of the month due to falling refinery margins. North Sea exports by month (mnbpd)
Denmark Netherlands Norway United Kingdom
• Forties averaged $1.88/bbl to Dated Brent in October, up from a premium of $0.97/bbl a month
earlier. Johan Sverdrup values also weakened, as light/heavy and sweet/sour differentials narrowed.
The loading program for North Sea grades, which comprise the Dated Brent benchmark, is expected to 0.90 0.84 0.79
2 0.75 0.64
show 745,000 bpd of supply in December, compared to 560,000 bpd a month earlier. Johan Sverdrup 0.68 0.66
0.54 0.53
loadings are set to average around 755,000 bpd compared to 702,000 bpd in November.
1.53 1.57 1.58
1.35 1.44 1.45
• Refinery margins weakened both in NWE and the MED in October compared to the previous month. 1.26 1.31 1.34
1
While diesel cracks remain relatively strong, light distillate cracks came under pressure. Fuel oil cracks
also fell.

• In October, the Brent/Dubai EFS averaged $2.13/bbl, up from $1.64/bbl in September. Two Forties
0
VLCCs left for Asia in October. Nov 2022 Jan 2023 Mar 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023

Norway exports by Grade & Dest (mnbpd) UK exports by Grade & Dest(mnbpd)
Johan Sverdrup Ekofisk Blend

Denmark 0.02 Canada 0.02


Grane Finland 0.14 Forties Netherlands 0.02
United Kingdom 0.02 France (Northern) 0.05
France (Northern) Netherlands 0.02
Gullfaks Denmark 0.02 Schiehallion
0.02 Poland 0.02 Poland 0.02
France (No… 0.02
Asgard Crude Germany 0.06 Clair
Sweden 0.04 Netherlands 0.02
Italy 0.02
Yme United Kingdom Mariner France (Southern)
0.03 Lithuania 0.04 0.02 Sweden 0.07
Heidrun Netherlands Beryl Netherlands
0.03 Netherlands 0.02
Martin Linge 0.06 Brent Blend
Netherlands
Oseberg Blend 0.05 1.45 Triton Blend
Lithuania 0.02 0.66
Netherl… 0.02 million bpd Netherlands million bpd China 0.03
Balder Wytch Farm 0.02
France … 0.02
Statfjord Finland 0.02 Catcher Germany 0.02
United Kingdom United Ki… 0.02 Germany 0.02
Troll Blend 0.04 Poland 0.26 Flotta
Netherlands 0.02 Netherlands 0.02
Goliat Blend Sweden 0.07 Lancaster
Spain 0.02
Njord Germany 0.05 Alba (U.K.)
Singapore 0.06
Spain 0.03 France (Northern) 0.02
Norne Sweden 0.02 Netherlands 0.05 Kraken Sweden 0.04 Netherlands 0.02

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Russia Crude exports by Load ports (mnbpd)
Arctic Gate Terminal (V… 4.99 Russia Crude flows for report month by Grade and Discharge Country (mnbpd)
Articneft Terminal (Kolg… 4.69
4.48 4.53 Urals ESPO blend
Baltiysk (Kaliningrad Ar… 4.17 4.12
4
De Kastri 4

Kaliningrad
3
Kozmino

Murmansk

Novorossiysk 2
2
Prigorodnoye (Sakhalin… Turkey 0.31 Bulgari…
Primorsk
1
Prirazlomnaya Platform

Umba FSO
China 0.09 China 0.65
Ust-Luga 0 0 Greece… Egypt …
May Jun Jul 2023 Aug Sep Oct India 0.07
2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 France (So…
KEBCO Sokol (Sakhalin I)
Russia exports by Load port & Grade (mnbpd) India 1.07 (Blank) 0.08 Denmark 0.02 Un…

Novorossiysk Arco CPC Blend


Sokol (Sakhalin I) 0.03 CPC Blend 1.28
Primorsk 0.19
South Korea 0.12
Italy 0.14
Kozmino
Urals 0.56
Ust-Luga Netherlands 0.13
De Kastri KEBCO
0.09 4.53 Turkey 0.09 Sout… India…
Romania … Turkey … China 0.05 Ind…

Murmansk
Italy 0.34 Arco Varandey Sak…
million bpd KEBCO
Varandey 0.12
ESPO blend France (Southern) 0.11
Prigorodnoye (Sakhalin… 0.72 Russian… Chi… Russian Feder… Chin…
Urals 0.49 (Blank) 0.05 Brun… Ro…
Umba FSO Arco/Novy … Si…
Urals 0.77
China 0.22 Greece 0.10 Egypt 0.03 Cypr… Bul… Egypt … India … China 0.05 Indi…

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US Crude exports by month (mnbpd) US Crude flows for report month by Grade and Discharge Country (mnbpd)

4.42 4.52
4.30 China
4.02
4 3.71 3.81
3.67 3.69
Cold Lake Netherlands
Eagleford
Italy
3 Louisiana Light Sweet
Ireland

Mars United Kingdom


2
India

West Texas Light Spain


1
France (Southern)

Germany
0
Mar 2023 May 2023 Jul 2023 Sep 2023

US Crude exports by Load port & Grade (mnbpd) Crude Oil South Korea

Corpus Christi Japan


WTI
Houston Mars 0.05 0.05
Crude Oil 0.65 France (Northern)
West … 0.04
GOLA - Galveston Offs… Mars 0.14 Panama
Bayport Eagleford
0.02 United States
WTI 0.21
LOOP Canada

South Sabine Point


WTI 0.32
3.69
Convent million bpd
WTI Singapore
Beaumont Crude Oil WTI 1.00
Denmark
0.22
Freeport (USA) WTI Midland Poland
0.02
Southtex Lightering
WTI 0.41 Bakken 0.02

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US Crude Oil Imports by Country of Origin Waterborne Crude Oil Imports Arriving Next Three Weeks
Arrival Date Load Country Grade Vessel Discharge Port Barrels

November 12 Brazil Crude Oil SEAWAYS RED Barbers Point 935,610
November 12 Ecuador Napo STELLA Pacific Area Lightering 869,614
6K Canada November 12 Mexico Isthmus NORDSYMPHONY 555,680
November 12 Mexico Maya EAGLE BRISBANE 477,587
Mexico
November 12 Turkey Azeri BTC BORDEIRA Galveston 966,108
Saudi Arabia November 13 Nigeria ERHA EUROCHAMPION 2004 Corpus Christi 314,332
Colombia November 13 Nigeria Oyo EUROCHAMPION 2004 Corpus Christi 317,028
4K
kbd

November 13 Nigeria Yoho EUROCHAMPION 2004 Corpus Christi 330,318


Iraq
November 13 Panama Crude Oil MARIA Pacific Area Lightering 962,064
Brazil November 13 Saudi Arabia Arab Light QAMRAN Baltimore 2,049,737
Ecuador November 14 Nigeria Amenam Blend BARCELONA SPIRIT 985,177
2K November 15 Ecuador Napo LIBRA SUN El Segundo Terminal 535,147
Nigeria
November 15 Trinidad and Tobago Molo CAPRICORN SUN Delaware City 494,159
Total November 16 Iraq Basrah Heavy SEEB Long Beach 1,938,405
November 18 Brazil Peregrino ALMI VOYAGER Texas City 724,595
November 19 Argentina Medanitos UNITY VENTURE Anacortes 533,907
0K
Aug 2023 Sep 2023 November 20 Nigeria Amenam Blend ADVANTAGE START Philadelphia 923,438
November 21 Argentina Crude Oil SEA VALIANT Long Beach 569,600
US Crude Oil Net Imports November 22 Libya Amna ERIK SPIRIT New York 450,000
November 29 Brazil Crude Oil AS SUWAYQ Long Beach 1,871,220
10K
November 29 Saudi Arabia Arab Crude AWTAD US Gulf Lightering Zones 2,050,440
December 1 Argentina Crude Oil NAVE ARIADNE Anacortes 453,145
5K
December 2 Iraq Basrah Medium ZOURVA Los Angeles (incl San Pedro) 2,022,357
Exports Total 21,329,668
kbd

0K
Imports

Net Imports
-5K

-10K
Aug 2023 Sep 2023

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Permian Crude Oil Production US Crude Oil Production Rig Count


Permian (bpd/rig) Permian (total bpd) Lower 48 Crude Oil Production Alaska Crude Oil Prouction Onshore Rigs Offshore Rigs (RH) Inland Water Rigs (RH)
6.0M 800

Permian (total bpd)


Permian (bpd/rig)

1K 20
5.8M 750
10K

kbd
0K 5.6M 700
Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 10
5K
Eagle Ford Crude Oil Production 650

EF (bpd/rig) EF (total bpd)


2K 1.2M 0K 600 0
Jun 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023

EF (total bpd)
EF (bpd/rig)

US Onshore Production F'cast, Selected Plays Oil Rigs Gas Rigs


1K
1.1M (bpd; current mnth)

0K 0.41M
600
Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023
1.27M Anadarko
Bakken Crude Oil Production Appalachia
Bakken (bpd/rig) Bakken (total bpd) Bakken
400
2K 1.12M Eagle Ford
Bakken (total bpd)
Bakken (bpd/rig)

1.2M Haynesville
5.9M 0.04M
1K Niobrara
0.68M 200
1.0M Permian

0K Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023


Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

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Marquis Products + Commercial Crude Stocks Δ Days of Supply US Gasoline Balance


Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Production Net Imports Product Supplied
40 10
20

35
mln bbls

mln bpd
5
30
0

25
0

-20 20
Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

Marquis Products Stocks US Diesel Balance US Jet Fuel Balance


Gasoline Stocks Diesel Stocks Jet Fuel Stocks Production Net Imports Product Supplied Production Net Imports Product Supplied
6 2

4.0

Product Supplied
0.3bn 4

1
mln bpd

mln bpd
3.8
bbls

0.2bn 2

3.6
0.1bn 0
0

0.0bn -2 3.4
Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023 Jan 2023 Jul 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2023 Jul 2023 Oct 2023

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