Pernod Ricard - Exploring Scenarios 2050

2050
SCENARIOS
Exploring implications of climate change on conviviality
INTRO
DUC
TION
As Creators of Convivialité at Pernod Ricard, approach to champion a spirit of curiosity for By extending the report’s knowledge, tools
we delve beyond the wine and spirits category a future filled with uncertainty. and learnings publicly for the first time, we aim
to distinguish what makes meaningful moments Our state-of-the-art methodology blends to collectively construct brighter pathways to
of human togetherness. With the effects of global the IPCC’s latest projections with an in-house better navigate precarious waters. We believe
warming becoming increasingly visible, our trend ecosystem that stretches across slow that if we all work together we can evolve from
Cultural Foresight team aims to decode how moving mega forces to fast moving micro signals. witnessing the world’s permacrises to becoming
climate change will impact the way we live, The study arrives at four major potential scenarios active changemakers influencing the best
consume and socialise in the year 2050. and uncovers the socio-political, economic and possible future for both people and the planet.
ecological conditions as well as the psyche,
In this report, the team combines quantitative and sentiment, behaviour and belief systems shaping
predictive tools with their sociological, qualitative everyday life.
2
CONTENTS
01 03
INTRO & EXPLORING

METHODOLOGY 4 POSSIBLE
FUTURES
Apocalypse Express
02
Eco-Harmony Society
DRIVERS OF CHANGE Green Totalitarianism

& CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES Pleasure First Planet Second
3
01
INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGY
4
IDENTIFY
EXPLORING Driving forces
THE FUTURE
Focusing on possible futures is not psychic work
DEFINE
Critical uncertainties
IMAGINABLE
FUTURES
DEVELOP
PROBABLE
TODAY FUTURES
Future scenarios
POSSIBLE
FUTURES
DISCUSS
Implications & paths
5
EXPLORING
CONTEXTUALISING ENRICHING ANCHORING
POSSIBLE FUTURES
Relying on recognised institutions to Exploring complimentary sources Using our unique insight and foresight Investigating and scenarising four
decipher climate and societal future bringing more granular signals for ecosystem to anchor our findings in a solid possible futures for 2050
outcomes possible futures framework
IPCC 6TH ASSESSEMENT REPORT CLIMATE INTELLIGENCE CONSUMERS TRENDS
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) is a scientific group assembled by the United
Nations to monitor and assess all global science
related to climate change. Every IPCC report focuses
on different aspects of climate change.
CONSUMERS INTELLIGENCE
SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS

(SSP) CORPUS
ENVISIONING
An international team
of climate scientists,
economists and energy
POSSIBLE
system modelers have built
a range of new “pathways”
that examine how global
SOCIETAL- CLIMATE
society, demographics and
economics might change
over the next century.
SCENARIOS
6
ENVISIONING POSSIBLE SOCIETAL-CLIMATE SCENARIOS
STATE OF THE PLANET

HOW DID WE GET HERE STATE OF CONSUMERISM
STATE OF SOCIETY
CONSOLIDATING AND FORECASTING POSSIBLE

PROJECTING TRENDS AND WEAK SYNTHETIZING EXPERTS' FUTURES BY IMAGINING FUTURE
SIGNALS IN THE FUTURE INTELLIGENCE HUMAN BEHAVIORS
Current
mature
trends
Rising trends
Weak signals
Three horizons scanning
The approach known as 'Three Horizons Thinking' The insights and foresights detailed in these two sections The anticipated consumer trends and future artifacts
serves as a powerful tool to comprehend and chart draw primarily from the Intergovernmental Panel on featured in this section are born out of a convergence
the evolution of cultural shifts amidst unpredictable Climate Change (IPCC) and other publicly available between our comprehensive trends ecosystem and the
circumstances. We have categorized consumer trends related open data tools. However, our concept of 'Green visionary works of climate fiction (cli-fi) authors, students
based on two defining factors: their stage of Totalitarianism' deviates marginally from the standard and Pernod Ricard team members. This collaboration
development, and their potential to establish a solid narrative set forth by the IPCC. aims to vividly imagine and paint a potential portrait of
foothold in society. our lifestyles by the year 2050.
7
02
DRIVERS OF
CHANGE CRITICAL
UNCERTAINTIES
8
The
Hyper- Reconfiguring
sustainability
connectivity urbanisation
emergency
The tech Global Social

revolution power shift polarisation
SHIFTS IN
NEW MEDIA
THE POWER & PRIORITIES
WORLD
CHANGES IN
DEMOGRAPHICS
IN 2050 NEW BEHAVIOURS
Female
Individualisation
empowerment
An ageing The evolving Health &

population middle class wellbeing
9
PLANET SOCIETY
The earth in climate People’s wellbeing

carnage in crises
The sense of emergency around the climate crisis Entering into the sustainability emergency, society is
has never felt as strong as in 2023, with impacts to experiencing a growing understanding of the direct
the planet becoming increasingly visible. link between social and economic patterns and the
affect they have on the climate.
Global warming presents major physical risks to the
Earth, such as extreme weather events whose People are seeing how the Earth’s deterioration can
frequency and intensity are accelerated by climate negatively affect their own lifestyles.
change.
As they reflect on the symbiosis between the
Measuring the future impact of the planet’s exposure planet’s health and their personal wellbeing,
and vulnerability to climate hazards exposes radical consumption habits are being put under the
potential dangers to the Earth’s ecosystem, including microscope for one common destiny.
water shortages, air pollution, heat-waves, fires, land
sinks, and bio-diversity loss
Meta drivers of change
SUSTAINABILITY
EMERGENCY
10
PLANET SOCIETY
Temperature increase is moderate Temperature increase is extreme Purposeful consumption Pragmatic consumption
Climate change policy becomes

Air quality is clean Air quality is polluted the sole focus of legislators Climate change policy stalls
People’s activism People succumb

Land is preserved Land is lost becomes more radical to climate fatalism
The link between economic The link between economic

Biodiversity Flourishes Biodiversity Flounders growth and planet is positive growth and planet is negative
Symbiosis between Disconnection between

Plant and animals thrive Plant and animal extinction the planet and humans the planet and humans
Critical uncertainties
SUSTAINABILITY
EMERGENCY
11
PLANETARY HEALTH IS NURTURED
FUTURE
SCENARIOS
2050
Prioritised critical uncertainties
SOCIETAL CONDITIONS WORSEN SOCIETAL CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN
PLANETARY HEALTH DETERIORATES

12
PLANETARY HEALTH IS NURTURED
GREEN ECO-HARMONY
TOTALITARIANISM SOCIETY
A world where the protection of
A world in which society thrives in
the environment comes at the price of
symbiosis with nature
people’s rights
SOCIETAL CONDITIONS WORSEN SOCIETAL CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN
APOCALYPSE PLEASURE FIRST

EXPRESS PLANET SECOND
A world where sustainable practices and the
A world in which people have to
health of the planet are disregarded in favor
survive chaotic conditions.
of human comfort
PLANETARY HEALTH DETERIORATES

13
03
01 STATE OF
HOW DID WE SOCIETY 04
GET HERE? STATE OF
02 CONSUMERISM
STATE OF
THE PLANET
FUTURE
SCENARIOS
OUTLINE
14
03
EXPLORING
POSSIBLE
FUTURES
15
FUTURE SCENARIOS SCENARIO 1/4
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
APOCALYPSE
EXPRESS
The fragmented pathway: a world in which
people have to survive chaotic conditions.
+2.2°C 9.96Bn $17,440

Highest °C increase due Uneven population distribution, Poor economic and technological
to ineffective action. +4°C with highest figures in developing development, results in the lowest
in 2100 countries. 12,62Bn in 2100 GDP per capita of all our scenarios
16
17
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
01
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
HOW DID WE
GET HERE?
18
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
SOCIAL POLARIZATION GLOBAL POWER SHIFTS HEALTH & WELLBEING INDIVIDUALISATION

APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
Economic Economic Interconnected Nature worsens Nature improves

disparity equality world Nationalism health conditions Self-preservation
health conditions Self-actualisation
Educational Educational High levels of Low levels of People & planet’s Dopamine
People & planet’s Conscious
decline evolution cooperation cooperation wellbeing deteriorate Consumerism
wellbeing improve Consumerism
Distrust in Trusted Fast-paced Slow-paced Collective

institutions institutions Globalisation Deglobalisation lifestyles I before we
lifestyles collaboration
19
Future Scenarios
TIMELINE OF EVENTS
The world’s two biggest polluters, China The decline in natural habitats and
and the US, continue to approve new extreme cohabitation between humans
fossil fuel projects. China issues permits The Paris agreement effectively and wild species, have led to a new
for 168 coal-fired power plants, while the becomes obsolete, with no countries zoonotic disease pandemic. Contagion Due to climate change and natural
Biden administration approves an taking an active part in meeting its goals. is uncontrolled, and the deadly disasters, 1.2 billion people have
enormous oil drilling project. Global collaboration collapses. pathogen spreads rapidly. been displaced globally.
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
2023 2029 2043 2050
2022 2027 2030 2047
Between 2017 and 2022, average Facing deadly air quality outside, Yearly GDP loss from climate Elephants, rhinoceroses and polar bears
temperatures reached approximately 2.2 wealthier Indians are paying to breathe damage reaches US$1.1 trillion. are the first victims of mass extinction,
degrees above pre-industrial era figures free at home, creating a booming market while 1/3 of all vertebrates are threatened
in Europe (1.7 in France), widely for air purifiers that grow about 35% or endangered.
exceeding the 1.5 degree goal set by the annually to reach about $597 million by
Paris Agreement. 2027.
2022 was the second warmest year ever

recorded in Europe.
PASSED, REAL FICTION BASED ON PURE DESIGN

EVENTS REAL PROJECTIONS FICTION
20
HOW DID WE
GET HERE?
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
NOW NEXT FUTURE

2023 2023-2035 2035-2050
Disaster Regional Apocalypse

starter rivalry Express
Although people live through the International fragmentation International collaboration is broken,
planet’s destruction, there is no characterises an era of regional rivalry and people survive through
consensus on the severity of the and an individualistic mentality of ‘I circumstances of poor ecological and
situation or how to deal with it. before we’. economic development.
21
02
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
STATE OF
THE PLANET
22
2050 Snapshot
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
SLOW INEFFICIENT
CLIMATE MODERNISATION AGRICULTURE
COLLAPSE fuels high energy intensity in the face of global food
and emissions demand
23
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
2050 Snapshot
COLLAPSE
24
FOSSIL FUELS HARMFUL EMISSIONS GLOBAL WARMING
DOMINATE UNMANAGED UNCONTROLLABLE
Traditional sources of energy continue to be Society is slow to innovate or develop Without international consensus and action,
the most popular and uptake of renewables is sustainable alternatives to traditional energy, temperatures soar to the point of no return.
negligible. and emissions are out of control.
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
CARBON INTENSITY OF PER CAPITA CARBON DIOXIDE GLOBAL AVERAGE

THE ECONOMY EMISSIONS TEMPERATURE INCREASE
Measured as the kilograms of carbon dioxide Measured as the global average Relative to the pre-industrial era,
emitted per dollar of GDP which is taken to be the year 1750
6,43t 2.20°C
0,37kg
Apocalypse Express Green totalitarianism Eco-Harmony Pleasure first, planet second
25 IPCC, scenario SSP3 – Regional Rivalry, 2021 - RCP, scenario 8.5, 2021
FICTION BASED ON REAL PROJECTIONS
FUTURE
HOTSPOTS
Climate change will make
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
some places too hot to live

In the future, many regions will see a large increase in
WBGT (WetBulb Globe Temperature), referring to heat
stress in direct sunlight. Exposure to a wet bulb temperature
of 35°C or higher, for a minimum of six hours, becomes life-
threatening for human beings.
According to Nasa, in 2050, the most affected regions will be

South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea, while In
2070, Eastern China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Brazil will
be the most vulnerable.
According to the World Climate Research Programme, in

2100, tropical regions such as Northern India, Southeast
Asia, South-Eastern USA, Northern Australia, Central Africa
and Central America will be extremely vulnerable to the
increase in humidity and near-surface air temperature.
Source: World Climate Research Programme
In 2100 with 4.0°C global warming

areas where a wet bulb globe temperature greater than 32°C occurs for more
than 10days per year.
26
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
2050 Snapshot
AGRICULTURE
in the face of global food demand
27
UNCONTROLLED
AGRICULTURE EXPANSION
AT THE EXPENSE OF
NATURAL LAND
Unregulated agricultural expansion

intensifies environmental concerns
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
LOW AGRICULTURAL FOOD INSECURITY

PRODUCTIVITY RISES
Limited agricultural trade, intensification High demand, high cost and low
and technological advances restrict income drive food insecurity.
productivity.
Fiction based on real projections
PRIORITISING FOOD
PRODUCTION IN
A RESOURCE-
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
SCARCE WORLD
In 2050, as global demand for agricultural production
reaches its peak, the primary focus is placed on
prioritising the cultivation of crops for food, while feed
crops, fibre crops, oil crops, ornamental crops and
industrial crops are deprioritised. In a period marked by
widespread resource scarcity, discretionary products are
also deprioritised to address the pressing requirements
associated with food production.
90%
of the Earth’s soil is degraded
2050, compared to 33% in 2018.
Source: IPBES, 2018

29
03
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
STATE OF
SOCIETY
30
2050 Snapshot
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
GLOBAL HUMANITY’S
SOCIETY’S
TENSIONS STRUGGLE
ALARMING
& the rise for sustainable
DECLINE
of Nationalism progress
31
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
2050 Snapshot
SOCIETY’S
ALARMING
32
UNEQUAL SOCIETAL POPULATION GROWS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
CONDITIONS CONSISTENTLY STAGNATES
Lack of investment in education means The world enters into a vicious circle of World market prices are highest in history, but
inequality persists and birth rates rise population growth and poverty. Consumption, people’s inability to afford goods means GDP is
consistently production and demand on resources increase. almost stagnant.
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
WORLD POPULATION IN 2010–2100 WORLD POPULATION EVOLUTION, GLOBAL GDP PER CAPITA,
BY BROAD AGE-GROUP AND 2005-2100, GLOBALLY 2005-2100, IN US DOLLARS
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Population in Millions
9,96bn
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

17,440$
Pop <15 yrs No education Primary
Secondary Tertiary
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
2050 Snapshot
TENSIONS
& the rise of nationalism
34
RESURGENT
NEGLECTED
NATIONALISM &
CONSTRAINED ENVIRONMENTAL
TRADE CONCERNS
A shift towards regional security Lack of global cooperation

and limited international trade. threatens sustainability goals
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
REGIONAL INCREASED SOCIAL

RIVALRY INEQUALITY
Weak global cooperation Equality ambitions are

intensifies regional rivalries and unachieved, as poverty and
conflicts gender disparity persist.
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
2050 Snapshot
HUMANITY’S
for sustainable progress
36
WATER SCARCITY
GLOBAL WATER
CONFLICTS
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
Water shortages emerge as a critical issue in 2050.

Population growth has escalated the global demand for
water, placing unprecedented stress on resources.
The adverse effects of climate change, which not only

reduce water supply but also disrupt rainfall patterns,
make water resources more erratic and unpredictable in
many regions.
Worldwide cloud and water wars are waged, with

countries draining rain-producing cumulus clouds in
wet countries through cloud seed technology, dispersing
rain across arid regions.
5 billion
people face water shortages in 2050.
Source: United Nations, 2022

37
04
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
STATE OF
CONSUMERISM
38
2050 Snapshot
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
APOCALYPSE GATED INSPERIENCE

FATALISM CONVIVIALITY TAKEOVER
39
APOCALYPSE
FATALISM
Global hopelessness fuels
RELATED TRENDS
selfish behaviours.
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
As the permacrisis accelerates and social

inequalities and environmental instability continue Permacrisis
to worsen, many individuals struggle to fulfill basic
needs. Water stress, food insecurity, health Individualism
deterioration, and housing crises have contributed
to the development of a “me-first” mentality, where Dopamine Consumerism
individuals prioritise their own interests above others.
Feeling abandoned and disempowered, people

adopt self-reliant and self-interested consumerism,
prioritising value for money. Businesses engage
in the war on prices with short-term vision.
Mistrust in institutions, corporations, and others is
exacerbated by media manipulation and deepfakes.
To cope with hopelessness and loneliness, people

embrace chaotic lifestyles, nihilistic indulgence,
dystopian narratives and aesthetics, and a "fuck it”
attitude which absolves them of purpose. In doing, We will be
they acknowledge the darkness of both present doomed
and future times.
United Nations Chief Antonio

Guterres warns
40
GATED
CONVIVIALITY
Elitist socialites indulge in
exclusive circles and behind
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
closed doors.
Increasing inequality widens the gap between

RELATED TRENDS
the ultra-rich 1% and the struggling 99%. Fearing
social uprisings in public places, high-net-worth
individuals (HNWIs) adopt discrete behaviours and Increasing inequalities
prioritise subtle distinction over ostentation. Quiet
luxury reigns. Offline filter bubbles
The fragmentation of societies also leads to social Exclusive conviviality

segregation, polarised communities and,
consequently, gated conviviality. People choose
to socialise within their filter bubbles, in their safe
circles, and in silo.
The gatekeeping on-trade model booms, with private

members clubs and invite-only parties becoming even
more exclusionary and impenetrable. The cost
and level of secrecy associated with entry are higher
than ever. This model offers people with shared
financial circumstances a safe space within which
to show-off and indulge lavish lifestyles.
41
INSPERIENCE
TAKEOVER
As going out becomes RELATED TRENDS
increasingly unsafe, home
APOCALYPSE EXPRESS
becomes the primary stage

Insperience economy
for conviviality.
Home is the ultimate safe space and the central Offline filter bubbles
stage on which to socialise, entertain and consume,
whether by necessity (cost, health, safety) or by Ultra-convenience
choice (privacy, freedom, control).
For many, hosting at home is the most accessible

and appealing way to socialize, with trusted and
chosen circles amongst whom they can truly let go.
In response, brands continue to provide for the home
space, with engaging innovations that seamlessly
encourage discovery, creativity and interactivity -
taking home entertainment to the next level.
While home trade dominates, the on-trade sector

loses market shares. However, these two sectors
eventually converge, as the ultimate home
entertainment experience recreates the on-trade
experience in the comfort of one’s home.
42
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
ECO-HARMONY
SOCIETY
The green growth pathway: a world in which
society thrives in symbiosis with nature
+1.76°C 8.53Bn $34,148

Lowest °C increase due Lowest population due Highest GDP per capita, as
to mitigation policy. +1,76°C to good societal conditions. planet prosperity = economic
in 2100 6,96Bn in 2100 prosperity
43
44
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
01
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
HOW DID WE
GET HERE?
45
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
FEMALE RECONFIGURING
HEALTH & WELLBEING TECH REVOLUTION URBANISATION
EMPOWERMENT
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
Female Innovation serves

empowerment leads Nature worsens Nature improves Innovation serves Cities and
environmental Cities and nature
High fertility rates to low fertility rates health conditions health conditions consumerism nature are siloed
progress in symbiosis
Social and Convergence People’s People’s

climate justice of social and and planet’s and planet’s Rising transportation
Tech at the Zero-emission
are siloed climate justice wellbeing clash wellbeing synergetic Tech defies nature emissions
service of nature transportation
Gender Gender Fast-paced Slow-paced Tech replaces Carbon-intensive

Tech creates job Green urban
inequality equality lifestyles lifestyles workers individuals
opportunities communities
46
Future Scenarios
TIMELINE OF EVENTS
G7 leaders announce,
“Our world must not only become Nature’s rights are now enshrined in most
net zero, but also nature positive” constitutions, granting all nature the same rights as
In doing so they shift global objectives humans and fighting ecocide. Back in 2017,
from reducing humanity’s negative impact First net zero transatlantic the River Ganges in India and Whanganui in NZ
on nature, to proactively adopting nature- flight from Virgin Atlantic is became the first non-human entities to be granted
positive practices. scheduled for late 2023. the same legal rights as people.
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
2021 2023 2040
2020 2022 2036 2050
The COVID-19 pandemic acts as The founder of Patagonia gives aways its Ugandan activist Vanessa Nakate, founder of the The European Union becomes
unprecedent, global WAKE UP CALL business ”to fight climate change.” Rise Up Movement and Fridays for Futures the first net-zero greenhouse gas
reminding us we must take climate Uganda, and the voice of climate justice for Africa, emissions continent, thus achieving
action. “As of now, Earth is our only shareholder. is appointed United Nations Secretary-General. The Green Deal pledge.
All profits, in perpetuity, will go to our
mission to save our home planet.” Yvon
Chouinard Patagonia

47
HOW DID WE
GET HERE?
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
NOW NEXT FUTURE

2024 2024-2035 2035-2050
The great The green The Eco-

awakening rush harmony society
People, businesses and institutions International mobilisation and collaborative Globally, society thrives in symbiosis
experience a collective moment of action paves the way towards a regenerated with nature.
realisation, finally prioritsing climate and prosperous world, where the green
change like to crisis level, and reacting economy thrives.
with urgency to tackle it.
48
02
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
STATE OF
THE PLANET
49
2050 Snapshot
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
CONTROLLING EXTREME ENERGY FOOD

TEMPERATURES WEATHER POLICIES PRODUCTION
through fossil fuel EVENTS management is improved
enable fast transition
reduction still surge
50
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
2050 Snapshot
TEMPERATURES
through fossil fuel reduction
51
FOSSIL FUELS HARMFUL EMISSIONS TEMPERATURE
FADE-OUT DECREASE INCREASE CURTAILED
The amount of carbon used Global efforts lead to significant reductions in The world comes together to successfully keep
significantly drops, as the world aims the amount of greenhouse gasses released temperatures under control.
to free itself from fossil fuels. into the atmosphere.
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY

2,08t
1.76°C
0.06kg
52 IPCC, scenario SSP1 – Taking the green road, 2021 - RCP, scenario 2.6, 2021
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
2050 Snapshot
WEATHER EVENTS
still surge
53
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
EXTREME ONE-DAY EXTREME HOT EXTREME AGRICULTURAL

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE AND ECOLOGICAL
EVENTS EVENTS DROUGHT EVENTS
Frequency pre-industrialisation Frequency pre-industrialisation Frequency pre-industrialisation

Once every 10 years Once every 10 years Once every 10 years
Frequency at 1.76°C temperature rise Frequency at 1.76°C temperature rise Frequency at 1.76°C temperature rise
Once every 6 years Once every 1 to 2 years Once every 5 years
At 1.76°C, an extreme one-day precipitation event that would At 1.76°C, an extreme temperature event that would have At 1.76°C, extreme agricultural and ecological drought events
have occurred once a decade in a climate without human occurred once a decade in a climate without human influence that would have occurred once a decade in a climate without
influence will likely occur every 6 years instead. The events’ will likely occur every 1 to 2 years instead. The events’ human influence will likely occur every 5 years instead, The
intensity will increase to be between 10.5% and 14% wetter. intensity will increase to be between 1.9°C and 2.6°C hotter. events’ intensity will increase to be between 0.5 and +0.6 sd
drier.
+10.5 to +1.9°C to +0.5 to

x1.5 to x1.7 x4.1 to x5.6 x2 to x2.4
+14% more +2.6°C more +0.6sd more
more often more often more often
intense intense intense
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
2050 Snapshot
PRODUCTION
management is improved
55
FOOD SECURITY
ENSURED
Reduced meat consumption and less waste

mean per-capita food demand lowers,
ensuring food security.
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
ARABLE LAND REDUCTION IMPROVEMENT OF

FOR ECOSYSTEM AGRICULTURE
RESTORATION PRODUCTIVITY
The protection of natural lands is expanded Good governance and tech

at the expense of agricultural lands. advancement increase crop yields.
Focus on existing system
Rather than bending nature to produce food,
food is designed for nature to thrive. Ingredients
are *NATURE-POSITIVE.
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
*REGENATIVELY-
*LOWER-IMPACT *DIVERSE *UPCYCLED
PRODUCED
INGREDIENTS INGREDIENTS INGREDIENTS
INGREDIENTS
Using peas instead of wheat Increasing crops diversity dampen Cacao farmers increase their income Regenerative agriculture - that aims
reduces GHG emissions by 40% pests and diseases and preserve by 30% by selling the whole fruit, to restore and enhance ecosystems
genetic resources, thus ensuring turning by-product into high-value – reduces GHG emissions by 50%,
resilience sweeteners biodiversity loss by 20%
57
03
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
STATE OF
SOCIETY
58
2050 Snapshot
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
SHAPING
SOCIETAL ENVIRONMENTALLY
A SUSTAINABLE WELFARE
AND ECONOMIC -FRIENDLY
GLOBALISATION PRIORITISED
PROSPERITY HUMAN PROGRESS
MODEL
59
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
2050 Snapshot
SOCIETAL
ECONOMIC
PROSPERITY
60
BETTER SOCIETAL POPULATION GROWTH ECONOMY
CONDITIONS DECELERATES THRIVES
Investment in education leads A low world population naturally The virtuous circle linking the wellbeing of
to notable declines in the amount reduces consumption, production humans and nature also positively impacts
of children born each year. and demand on resources. global GDP.
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
8.53bn
9000
8000
7000
6.96bn
6000
34.148$
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
2050 2050
Secondary Tertiary
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
2050 Snapshot
SHAPING
A
GLOBALISATION MODEL
62
STRONG MODERATE
GLOBAL TRADE
COOPERATION TRANSFORMATION
Collaborations increase Global markets are highly

as equity and support connected, but there is
are prioritised. a preference for regional trade
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
COMMON GLOBAL
SUSTAINABLE INEQUALITIES
GOALS REDUCED
Global environmental policy As efforts to reduce inequality

is managed efficiently. intensify, income convergence
accelerates.
GREEN GROWTH IS
THE NEW PARADIGM
FOR ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
Green growth ensures that natural assets can deliver their full
economic potential on a sustainable basis.
GREEN
GROWTH
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
PLANET-FRIENDLY
PROGRESS Fostering economic growth
and development while ensuring
that natural assets continue
to provide the resources and
environmental services on which
our wellbeing relies.
64 OECD definition
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
2050 Snapshot
ENVIRONMENTALLY-
FRIENDLY
HUMAN
65
PLANET-FRIENDLY
TRANSPORTATION
MODES
Shared transport and clean energy

vehicles are rolled out.
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
CITIES IN SYMBIOSIS TECH AT

WITH NATURE THE SERVICE OF NATURE
Urbanisation expands with eco-friendly living Rapid tech development prioritises

principles in mind. environmental sustainability.
04
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
STATE OF
CONSUMERISM
67
2050 Snapshot
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
SOUTH NATURE CHERISHED

POWER INCLUSIVE WASTE
68
SOUTH RELATED TRENDS
POWER Emerging Soft Powers
Multicultural Lives
Global soft power shifts
from North to South, following
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
De-Westernising Narratives
the trajectory of youth culture
As demographic weight influences cultural dynamics,
the dominant influence of Western culture, along with its
1/4
population size, gives way to the rise of the Global South.
Its multicultural lifestyles (Latino, pan-African and pan-Asian)

of the global population
become the new aspiration, embracing reinvented
craftsmanship, revived culinary traditions, vibrant celebration lives in Africa
rituals, different definitions of hospitality and hedonistic ways
of life.
Mexico City, Lagos, Sao Paulo, and Bangkok emerge as

the new capitals of cool and buzzing hotspots, radiating
1/2
The older mindset was that energy and excitement. of the African population
brands wanted to sell their is less than 25 years-old
products to Africa - now As cultural values diversify, Western brands become – making Africa,
they need to buy products cross-culturally fluent, collaborating and innovating to the global hub of youth
from Africa de-Westernise their narratives and resonate with this
culture
new global audience.
Yannick Do, Co-founder of African lifestyle
platform Dola
69
IN
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
2050
Kenya’s education system (of the
younger adult population) is similar
to that of Europe in 2020s.
70
NATURE
INCLUSIVE
A shift takes place from
an human-centric vision of
the planet, towards one that
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
acknowledges the world’s

interconnected ecosystem
RELATED TRENDS
As the world shifts into a nature-inclusive era,
societies strive for domination-free systems and Diversity and Inclusion Revolution
embrace principles of diversity and inclusion for all
living beings. Constitutions guarantee equal rights for A New Understanding of the Natural World
humans and the natural world.
Interspecies Togetherness
Education prioritises the understanding of and
empathy for nature through outdoor learning, wildlife
observation, plant identification, and hands-on
cultivation classes, fostering interspecies
togetherness from an early age.
People actively engage in regenerative pursuits,

dedicating their leisure time to contributing to As the 20th century had been
the restoration and healing of the planet. called ‘the century of human
rights’ this new era (the 21st
While nature-positive volunteer work is highly century) would be known as
esteemed, green skills become valued in recruitment the ‘century of the rights of
processes. Mother Earth
Bolivian President Evo Morales
71
CHERISHED
WASTE
Turning trash into treasure RELATED TRENDS
ECO-HARMONY SOCIETY
Challenging planned obsolescence in product design and

shifting from an expiration mindset to a regeneration mindset Circular Economy
sparks a new paradigm where everything is valued - every
individual, all living beings, and even waste, which is Zero Waste
perpetually repurposed. This marks the demise of
disposability. Waste to Taste
Consciousness and collaborative efforts from both

businesses and consumers expedite solutions for reduction,
recycling and upcycling, prolonging the lifespan of materials,
and creating a truly circular journey of products.
Businesses break through boundaries, forging cross-industry

partnerships to mutually share and repurpose waste. From
disposing to harnessing it, various innovations emerge.
-50%
Decomposition generates renewable energy, fruit and The UN target to reduce
vegetable scraps introduce new taste pallets, fermentation 50% of food wastage by
of food by-products yields neutral spirits, and discarded 2030 has been successfully
elements contribute to the development of sustainable
achieved.
materials and pioneering packaging.
72
GREEN TOTALITARIANISM
GREEN
TOTALITARIANISM
The forced moderation pathway: a world where
the protection of the environment comes at
the expense of people’s rights.
1.79°C 9.15Bn $23,945

°C increase is contained Average population growth Global GDP per capita is
thanks to strict mitigation is inconsistent across relatively low, due to moderation
policy. +1,8°C in 2100 regions policies and social inequalities
73
74
01
HOW DID WE
GET HERE?
75
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
HYPERCONNECTIVITY GLOBAL POWER SHIFT SOCIAL POLARISATION

People People Strengthened Eroding Wealth disparities Wealth disparities

empowered alienated democracies democracies decreased increased
Data privacy Data privacy Agreed global Forced global Disadvantaged Favoured
respected denied collaboration Collaboration people Elite
Reduced Increasing Individual

Decentralisation Centralisation of inequalities across inequalities Individual freedoms freedoms
of information information countries across countries respected undermined
76
Future Scenarios
TIMELINE OF EVENTS
In 2022, United Nations Secretary-
General António Guterres says:
“Humanity must cooperate or perish”.
The United Nations declares
France bans short-haul domestic flights a “World State of Emergency”, The price of carbon has more than
for journeys that take less than 2.5 hours after repeated heatwaves and doubled since 2020 and hits roughly
by rail, encouraging train travel. severe water crises. US$500 per ton of CO2.
2022 2028 2039
2021 2023 2030 2042
Covid passports make vaccination European Union governments impose a Governments implement new laws and Individuals and businesses are given
mandatory for travel, making it highly carbon tax on high-emission imports. regulations to put to an end planned eco-credits to impose and track
restricted.
obsolescence. Stricter product durability production and consumption quotas
standards, and mandatory repairability and (carbon, water, waste…), paving the
Thanks to Covid restrictions and the
upgradeability requirements are imposed, way for a new era of forced moderation
slowing down of human activity, global
to ensure products are built to last.
gas emissions decrease by 30%,
showing that reversing humanity’s impact
on the climate is possible

77
HOW DID WE
GET HERE?
NOW NEXT FUTURE

2024 2024-2035 2035-2050
The quest for Rising Green

transparency eco-politics totalitarianism
People and governments increasingly Disillusion with some citizens’ inaction sees A world where the protection of
pressure businesses to prove their eco-anxiety increases, and climate activists the environment comes at the expense
eco-credentials create a wave of authoritarian political of people’s rights.
parties that lobby for people’s sustainable
practises to be monitored.
78
02
STATE OF
THE PLANET
79
2050 Snapshot
ENFORCED
REGULATED
IMPOSED REGULATIONS
PATHWAYS
GREEN GOALS accelerate energy
transition to sustainable agriculture
80
81
2050 Snapshot
GOALS
STRICT POLICIES TEMPERATURE
FOSSIL FUEL USE
REDUCE HARMFUL INCREASE
FORCED DOWNWARD EMISSIONS CONTROLLED
The amount of carbon used significantly Strict mitigation policy leads to significant The world comes together to successfully keep
drops, as the world aims to free itself from reductions in the amount of greenhouse temperatures under control.
fossil fuel. gasses released into the atmosphere.

1,30t
1.79°C
0.05kg
Apocalypse Express Green totalitarianism Eco-Harmony pleasure first, planet second
82 IPCC, scenario SSP4 – Inequality, A road divided, 2021 - RCP, scenario 2.6, 2021
Pure design fiction
THE
ECO-CREDIT
SCORE
In 2050, the concept of personal freedom takes a backseat,
as a complex and controlling system governs every aspect
of people’s lives. In this world, society is driven by
the "Eco-Credit Score."
Within the system, each individual’s carbon footprint, water

usage, waste generation and mode of transport is recorded
and reflected as a score, which becomes the currency of
the era, determining one’s purchasing power and overall
access to resources. From groceries to travel, entertainment
to housing, every transaction requires the use of eco-credits.
Businesses are also subject to the same data-backed

eco-authentication.
83
Pure design fiction
816KG
Round trip
THE
Paris to New York
ECO-CREDIT 112KG
A full tank of gas
SCORE
36KG
1KG of beef
4.1 TONS 1.30 TONS 29KG

PER CAPITA PER CAPITA 1KG of coffee
Average global annual CO2 Authorised annual CO2
consumption in 2024 consumption in 2050
2KG
1KG of beans
800GR
1KG of bread
2050 Snapshot
PATHWAYS
to sustainable agriculture
85
RESTRICTED AGRICULTURE
FOR THE EXPANSION
OF NATURE
Regulations around land use restrict

agricultural expansion and increase forests
around the world.
IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL RESHAPING FOOD

PRODUCTIVITY CONSUMPTION
Tech advancements improve the efficiency Low demand for crops and livestock coupled
of the agriculture industry. with increasing market prices shape diverse
consumption patterns
87
03
SOCIETY
STATE OF
2050 Snapshot
SPATIAL
ECONOMIC CENTRALISED
CONSTRAINTS &
PROSPERITY POWER
TECHNOLOGY FOR
IS UNEQUAL in a fragmented world
CONTROL
88
2050 Snapshot
ECONOMIC
PROSPERITY
IS
89
UNEQUAL
POPULATION GROWTH DEGROWTH POLICIES
INVESTMENT IN
STABILISES MODERATE GDP RISE
SOCIETAL CONDITIONS
Although in some regions, improved education Birth rates vary across the globe, and Global GDP rises moderately as inequality
leads women to have less children, deteriorating the implementation of regulating policies still exists within and across countries;
education in others means that, globally, birth contributes to gradual population stabilisation.
rates are balanced.
9,15bn
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000 23.945$
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Secondary Tertiary
2050 Snapshot
CENTRALISED
in a fragmented world
91
EFFECTIVE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES
Environmental policies focus on local issues in

middle and high-income regions, with little
attention given to vulnerable ones.
THE GLOBAL ELITE AN UNEQUAL WORLD
Successful global cooperation and trade A significant gap widens between a globally-
to centralise power. connected elite, and fragmented lower-income
communities.
Pure design fiction
FORCED
DEGROWTH
Forced degrowth aims to enforce moderation by both businesses
and consumers through governmental measures.
In this paradigm, individuals are compelled to reduce their

consumption patterns in order to alleviate the strain on the planet.

By implementing stringent policies, governments seek to preserve
the environment, and promote a more sustainable and harmonious
relationship with our natural resources.
FORCED DEGROWTH
ensuring environmental preservation
DEGROWTH
STRINGENT
Enforcing strict governmental
POLICIES
measures of degrowth - an idea
that critiques the global capitalist
system and its pursuit of growth
at any cost, which leads to human
exploitation and environmental
destruction.
93
2050 Snapshot
SPATIAL CONSTRAINTS
TECHNOLOGY
FOR CONTROL
94
RAPID URBANISATION HIGH-TECH DEVELOPMENT

LEADS TO A PREMIUM ON AT THE SERVICE OF
SPACE CONTROL
Economic circumstances dictate living Technology develops significantly, but

situations within urban environments. unevenly, across the world.
SHAPING URBAN
LIVING THROUGH
OPTIMISED
COMMUNITY SPACES
In 2050, the way people live in cities changes radically

to optimise sustainability.
Highly integrated communities thrive within compact

mixed-use spaces, designed for sustainability, longevity
and purpose.
These all-in-one buildings and districts allow people to

live, work, play, socialise, and shop all within 15 minutes
walking distance, reducing transport needs and
minimising residents’ environmental impact.
However, the emphasis on communal living and

compactness often translates into very restricted private
living spaces and small apartments that are, on
average, only 8m².
96
04
STATE OF
CONSUMERISM
97
2050 Snapshot
LOW FOOTPRINT
ECO-SHAMING
DIETS
98
ECO-
SHAMING
Social pressure to adopt
planet-friendly behaviours
People experience feelings of shame and guilt about the RELATED TRENDS
negative impact of their consumption on the planet.
To achieve environmental goals, governments employ Eco-consciousness

nature-first policies involving regulations, surveillance,
taxation, and reward systems that force moderation of Business Accountability
consumption.
Boycott Brands
Individuals face both peer pressure and the systemic
stigmatisation created by governments. They are even
encouraged to report people who harm nature or engage in
excessive consumption.
Businesses are also held highly accountable for their actions

- or inaction - and face intense public scrutiny, shaming,
backlash, and boycotts.
As society prioritises the wellbeing of the planet over that of

people, individual freedoms and social cohesion are
compromised.
99
Mike Martins
Bianca Ferrera
THE
#PLANTPRIDE
MOVEMENT
continues to gain momentum, as the
sharing of green ostentation and
experiences is one of the only acceptable
ways for consumers to ‘show off’.
100
LOW
FOOTPRINT
DIET
Food & drink consumption
is regulated to ensure low
environmental impact
Strict regulations are imposed to deal with food and RELATED TRENDS
beverage products that significantly impact the
environment. These include obligations around local
production, bans on non-organic products, deforestation- Positive-impact Consumption
free labeling, and heavy taxation on high energy-intensive
goods like meat. From a consumer perspective, the eco- Pragmatic Consumption
credit app facilitates a dietary shift by implementing
rationing systems. Naturality at the Core
As less environmentally friendly options become more Local Leaning

expensive, sustainability and affordability finally align.
Eating locally and seasonally and adopting a plant-based
diet is accepted as common sense. In the drinks industry,
fermented beverages are preferred over distilled ones for
their lower use of resources.
Multiple brands competing within the same product

category are deemed unsustainable. Emotional
differentiation is depriorised. In this context, smaller brands
phase-out. Although empowered through information and
better control over their consumption, consumers also face
lack of options and choice.
101
102
Pure design fiction

PLEASURE FIRST PLANET SECOND
PLEASURE FIRST
PLANET SECOND
The middle of the road pathway: a world where
sustainable practices and the health of the planet are
disregarded in favour of human comfort and convenience.
+1.97°C 9.17Bn $25,175

Second highest °C increase due Steadied global population Second highest GDP per
to only only moderate action. due to medium fertility capita, as the middle class
+2,63°C in 2100. and mortality grows
103
104
105
01
GET HERE?
HOW DID WE
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
EVOLVING MIDDLE CLASS INDIVIDUALISATION TECH REVOLUTION

The global middle The global middle Digital divide Digital divide
class collapses class consolidates Self-preservation Self-actualisation widens narrows
Innovation
Western middle Rise of non-Western Collective serves environmental Innovation serves
class dominates middle class I before we Collaboration progress consumerism
Emerging middle class Emerging middle class

perpetuates unsustainable embrace sustainable Dopamine Conscious Tech creates job Tech replaces
consumption patterns consumption patterns Consumerism Consumerism opportunities workers
106
Future Scenarios
TIMELINE OF EVENTS
The FIFA World Cup in Qatar delivers Air pollution is identified as the
record-breaking TV audience numbers, Despite criticism of fast leading globe cause of child mortality.
despite backlash, boycotts and fashion, online fashion brand
controversy around bad environmental Shein doubles its revenue to Half of Earth’s species
impact and human rights abuses. nearly $60Bn. are at risk of extinction.
2022 2025 2045
2021 2023 2030 2050
The United States rejoins The United Arab Emirates appoints More than half of the world's total People spend 80% of their leisure time
the Paris Agreement after having the head of one of the world’s largest oil population is now considered to part online, as the virtual world is ‘more
withdrawn a year before, producers to preside over the of the middle class - driving increased exciting than real world’, while being safe
opening the door to international UN COP28 climate summit. consumption of goods and materials. and easily accessible from the comfort of
collaboration. one’s home.

107
HOW DID WE
GET HERE?
NOW NEXT FUTURE

2024 2024-2035 2035-2050
A problem The age of Pleasure first,

for the future cognitive dissonance Planet second
For a world in permacrisis, climate People, business and society behave in A world where sustainable practices
change is considered to be just a bipolar way, making climate change mitigation and the health of the planet are
another problem. hard to implement, and progress too slow. disregarded in favour of human comfort
and convenience.
108
109
02
STATE OF
THE PLANET
2050 Snapshot
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
GREEN PROGRESS TRANSITION INCREASES
IS SLOW follows historical patterns faster than agricultural
of disparity growth
110
2050 Snapshot
GREEN
PROGRESS
IS
111
FOSSIL FUELS TEMPERATURES
HARMFUL EMISSIONS
LOSE DOMINANCE CONTINUE
DECLINE SLOWLY
TO INCREASE
As alternative energy sources are gradually Lack of sustainable development and lack of Although at a declining rate, temperatures
embraced, carbon intensity reduces. widespread adoption means greenhouse gas continue to rise before plateauing at the turn of
emissions are slow to decrease. the century.

4,67t
1.97°C
0.19kg
Apocalypse Express Green Totalitarianism Eco-Harmony Pleasure first, planet second
IN 2050
CLIMATE
CHANGES FOR
FUTURE CITIES
By 2050, and as a result of +2°C global warming, iconic
cities across the globe will experience significant climate
London Madrid
change-related shifts. will be more like Barcelona will be more like Marrakech
is today is today
Cities in the Northern Hemisphere will develop warmer
climates, more associated with those of cities on average
1000km further south, today.
Cities in geographically tropical regions, will experience

drier conditions.
77% 22%
of future cities are very likely to of cities will experience climate
experience a climate that is closer to conditions that are not currently
that of another existing city than to its experienced by any existing major
own current climate. cities.
Source: PLOS Climate Research, 2019 Source: PLOS Climate Research, 2019
Seattle Tokyo
will be more like San Francisco will be more like Changsa
is today is today
113
Pure design fiction
FASHION’S COOLING
TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION
By 2050, leaders in the apparel industry have unveiled
revolutionary cool tech clothing lines, equipped with
advanced cooling technology. This innovation transforms our
approach to extreme weather, offering a reduction in body
temperature, and providing comfort and adaptability in harsh
conditions. Building on their success with heat tech clothing
in the 2010s, these industry pioneers are now focused on
ensuring people stay cool and comfortable.
114
2050 Snapshot
CONSUMPTION
faster than agricultural growth
115
MODERATE
AGROTECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
Innovation in agriculture is moderate, and

increases in crop yields slow down.
INSUFFICIENT
PRODUCTIVITY REMAINS
REGULATIONS PUT
AVERAGE DESPITE
NATURE UNDER
INCREASED DEMAND
PRESSURE
Global increases in food consumption and Negative environmental management lead

higher caloric intake impact the environment. to deforestation
116 IPCC, scenario SSP2 – Middle of the road, 2021 - RCP, scenario 4.5, 2021
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS DISRUPTING
THE FLAVOUR PROFILE
AND HARVEST OF
YOUNG GRAPES
Increased Decreased Earlier harvest Unwanted Reduced crop

alcohol content acidity Smoke Taint yields
Grapes are harvested
Rising temperatures and As alcohol content earlier to curb excessive As wildfires escalate in Extreme weather events
lower rainfall cause grape increases, acidity, which alcohol. The result is an frequency and ferocity, such as frosts,
berries to build up more adds freshness and zest to altered flavour profile of the compounds released by floods, hail storms and
sugars. This causes a wine decreases. grape. the flames are absorbed into droughts are radically
higher degree of alcohol. the grape skin, creating reducing crop yields.
unpalatable smoky tastes,
textures and aroma
that ruins
vintages.
117
THE GRAPE
ESCAPE
Researchers, scientists and winemakers are experimenting with

solutions to climate change by re-orientating grape growth;
Cooler, wetter Taking the Radiation

regions higher ground reducing rows
Winemakers are growing Winemakers are planting Winemakers are curtailing

grapes in places once vineyards at altitudes once sunlight to prevent
considered too cold for considered inhospitable. overripening.
fine wines. Heat intensity lasts for
shorter periods helping
grapes to ripen at a more
even pace.
118 Source: The New York Times, 2019

119
03
SOCIETY
STATE OF
2050 Snapshot
PEOPLE’S GREEN PROGRESS HUMAN PROGRESS

PROSPERITY - TOO LITTLE, FOLLOWS
PRIORITISED TOO LATE HISTORICAL
PATTERNS
120
2050 Snapshot
PEOPLE’S
PROSPERITY
IS
121
SOCIETAL CONDITIONS POPULATION GROWTH PEOPLE & ECONOMIES
SLOW TO IMPROVE DECELERATES PROSPER UNEQUALLY
The lack of major investment in improved The global population continues to grow slowly Policy decisions made primarily to benefit people
education means that birth rates continue to rise until 2050 and stabilizes in the second half of not the planet, resulting in rapidly rising GDPs.
slowly. the century. However, they do not benefit everyone to
the same degree.
9,17bn
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000 25.175$
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Secondary Tertiary
Apocalypse Express Green totalitarianism Eco-Harmony pleasure first, planet second
2050 Snapshot
GREEN PROGRESS -
TOO LITTLE
123
SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARDS EQUALITY
The reduction of societal and economic

disparities takes place at a moderate,
but uneven pace.
INEFFECTIVE GLOBAL DELAYED ACTION

COOPERATION ON SUSTAINABLY
Internationally, levels of collaboration are International cooperation for climate change

inconsistent. mitigation is slow.
2050 Snapshot
HUMAN PROGRESS
FOLLOWS
125
URBANISATION TECH AT
CONTINUES THE SERVICE OF
TO EXPAND CONSUMERISM
Urbanisation follows historical patterns Technology continues to improve gradually

and doesn’t slow down.
127
04
STATE OF
CONSUMERISM
2050 Snapshot
ALONE
ECO-PARALYSIS
TOGETHER
128
ECO-
PARALYSIS
General helplessness in the face

of the climate crisis
Globally, society faces being powerless when it comes to RELATED TRENDS

climate crisis, and is unable to respond. Individuals feel
overwhelmed and powerless, perceiving their actions to be
insignificant. This results in a lack of collective effort. Eco-conscious-ness
This sense of helplessness makes consumers feel anger
towards businesses and governments whom they hold Eco-anxiety
responsible for failing to address environmental challenges.
In response, green initiatives are implemented but often Green alienation
backfire. Good intentions lead to unintended, undesirable
outcomes, as action is deemed to be ‘too little too late’.
In this era of global cognitive dissonance, where awareness
coexists with inaction, people, businesses and governments
find themselves trapped in a state of paralysis that paves
the way towards climate carnage. Eco-anxiety is
killing the climate
movement
Marc-Aurèle Baly, journalist at Vice Magazine,
referencing an Australian study
129
ALONE
TOGETHER
Digital living ironically contributes

to an increasingly disconnected
world
RELATED TRENDS
8G, hyper-realistic graphics, haptic feedback and spatial
audio systems have boosted the sensorial appeal of the
metaverse and eventually driven its widespread adoption. Tech-accelerated innovations
In this tech-driven society, people spend as much time on Digital Living

screens as in real life, if not more. The virtual world has
become a primary hub for social interaction, offering exciting Rise of loneliness
and comforting alternatives to a crumbling reality. However,
the lack of IRL human contact contributes to an epidemic of
loneliness, amongst other mental health issues.
On the one hand tech giants are trying to solve the issue
thanks to the development of AI companions, holographic
communications or mindful tech usage programs. On the
other hand, non-technology driven solutions like the
promotion of inter-generational living or education on
emotional literacy and empathy are becoming widespread.
130
APPENDIX
131
Nasa sea level projection tool
REFERENCES Projections are based on the assessment presented in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Details
of the sea level projections are provided in Box TS.4 and section 9.6 of the Working Group 1.
This appendix provides a comprehensive collection of sources and documents that Climate Central - Land projected to be below annual flood level in 2050
have been key in the development of this report. Central to our research is the work Sea-level-projection source: Leading Consensus (IPCC 2021). Filters: PROJECTION TYPE: sea
level rise + annual flood. POLLUTION PATHWAY OR SEA LEVEL SCENARIO: moderate cuts .
produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a globally
LUCK: medium . AREAS TO SHOW AS THREATENED: All land below water level.
recognized authority comprising the world's leading experts in climate science.
Science Direct Articles, Global Environmental Change Journal.
AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 Human and Policy Dimensions
AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability All articles are open access under the CC BY-NC-ND license CC BY license and CC BY-NC-SA
AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change license.
AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis All articles are based on Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs), provided by the IPCC.
Our four distinct scenarios are specifically drawing upon the following Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), provided by the IPCC: - Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm -
2017 - Detlef P. van Vuuren and Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Eco-Harmony Society Green totalitarianism - Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st
Scenario SSP1: Taking the Green Road Scenario SSP4: Inequality century
Scenario RCP 2.6 Scenario RCP 2.6 2016 – Elma Kriegler and Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
- Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
Apocalypse Ready Pleasure First, Planet Second 2016 – Shilpa Rao and Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Scenario SSP3: Regional Rivalry Scenario SSP2: Middle of the road - Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach
Scenario RCP 8.5 Scenario RCP 4.5 2016 – Marian Leimbach and Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
- Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Our World in Data – Visualisation of IPCC SSPs and RCPs Scenarios
2016 – Alexander Popp and Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
The data from the 4 scenarios – presented in Our World in Data Explorer – is accessible from
- Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
the SSP Database, published and maintained by the International Institute for Applied Systems
2016 – Nico Bauer and Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Analysis (IIASA).
- The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and
The data presented is sourced from the work of Riahi et al. (2017). The Shared
level of education for all countries to 2100
Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions
2014 – Samir KC and Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
implications: An overview, Global Environmental Change – processed by Our World in Data.
-The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the
Riahi et al. (2017).
21st century
2015 – Brian C. O’Neill and Authors Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
132
REFERENCES
In addition to the pivotal resources from the IPCC, this appendix also includes a range
of complementary sources. These sources encompass a variety of perspectives and
disciplines, enriching our analysis with diverse insights.
Carbon Brief: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ explore future climate change Ademe – Transitions 2050
Zeke Hausfather - April 2018 © ADEME Éditions, november 2021
Climate Impact explorer Paris à 50°C

Calculations are based on the latest state-of-the-art science, including international climate and Mission d’information et d’évaluation du conseil de Paris, avril 2023
climate impact modelling initiatives such as CMIP and ISIMIP. A full description of the data sources
and methodology can be found here. IEA – Net Zero by 2050
IEA (2021), Net Zero by 2050, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050, Licence:
2023 GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar CC BY 4.0
© 2023 by GESDA is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.
For more information on cited key resources. Parlons Climat en 30 questions – Troisième edition
2022 - Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Christophe Cassou - La documentation française
Arup 2050 scenarios: Four plausible futures
Foresight, Research and Innovation - Arup’s internal think-tank and consultancy. Released December
2019
BSR Climate Scenarios

BSR Staff - September 27, 2022
CIA Global Trends 2040

A publication of the national intelligence council
A more contested world2040 - march 2021
OECD (2021), Global Scenarios 2035: Exploring Implications for the Future of Global Collaboration
and the OECD, OECD. Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/df7ebc33-en.
133
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many thanks to the below, whose insights were integral to conceive
the 2050 Future Scenarios:
DAPHNÉE HOR BAKUL PATKI

Head of Cultural Foresight Copywriter and cultural consultant
SPECIAL THANKS TO:

FLORENCE RAINSARD NOEMIE BAUER
Global Consumer Insights Director Chief Sustainability Officer
STUDENTS FROM PARIS 7 UNIVERSITY Master 2 in Cultural
Intelligence and Innovation 22-23
JEANNE KLEIN GWYNETH WELLER
LAUREN JAMES
Trend Forecaster Head of S&R Engagement Founder of the Climate Fiction Writers Guild
DR. CATHERINE NAKALEMBE

SOFIANE ZEGHLOUL JULIE LEJARD Assistant Professor at the Department of Geographical Sciences in
the University of Maryland and Africa Program Lead at NASA
Trend forecaster Sustainable Business Project Manager Harvest.
VALERIE MASSON-DELMOTTE
CHARLOTTE BROHIER & The creative team Director of Research at the French Alternative Energies and
Atomic Energy Commission and Co-Chair of IPCC Group No.1
Cultural Foresights Senior planner PIERRE BOUQUET,
LOREN SYNNAEVE,
ROXANE POISSONNIER ANDREA MUSSARD &
Cultural Foresights Senior planner MAËVA DUFOUR
134
2050
FUTURE SCENARIOS
A prospective Pernod Ricard study

Pernod Ricard - Exploring Scenarios 2050

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2050

INTRO & EXPLORING

DRIVERS OF CHANGE Green Totalitarianism

IPCC 6TH ASSESSEMENT REPORT CLIMATE INTELLIGENCE CONSUMERS TRENDS

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS

STATE OF THE PLANET

CONSOLIDATING AND FORECASTING POSSIBLE

Three horizons scanning

The tech Global Social

An ageing The evolving Health &

The earth in climate People’s wellbeing

Meta drivers of change

Climate change policy becomes

People’s activism People succumb

The link between economic The link between economic

Symbiosis between Disconnection between

SOCIETAL CONDITIONS WORSEN SOCIETAL CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN

PLANETARY HEALTH DETERIORATES

SOCIETAL CONDITIONS WORSEN SOCIETAL CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN

APOCALYPSE PLEASURE FIRST

PLANETARY HEALTH DETERIORATES

+2.2°C 9.96Bn $17,440

SOCIAL POLARIZATION GLOBAL POWER SHIFTS HEALTH & WELLBEING INDIVIDUALISATION

Economic Economic Interconnected Nature worsens Nature improves

Distrust in Trusted Fast-paced Slow-paced Collective

2023 2029 2043 2050

2022 2027 2030 2047

2022 was the second warmest year ever

PASSED, REAL FICTION BASED ON PURE DESIGN

NOW NEXT FUTURE

Disaster Regional Apocalypse

CARBON INTENSITY OF PER CAPITA CARBON DIOXIDE GLOBAL AVERAGE

Apocalypse Express Green totalitarianism Eco-Harmony Pleasure first, planet second

some places too hot to live

According to Nasa, in 2050, the most affected regions will be

According to the World Climate Research Programme, in

Source: World Climate Research Programme

In 2100 with 4.0°C global warming

Unregulated agricultural expansion

LOW AGRICULTURAL FOOD INSECURITY

Source: IPBES, 2018

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Apocalypse Express Green totalitarianism Eco-Harmony Pleasure first, planet second

A shift towards regional security Lack of global cooperation

REGIONAL INCREASED SOCIAL

Weak global cooperation Equality ambitions are

Water shortages emerge as a critical issue in 2050.

The adverse effects of climate change, which not only

Worldwide cloud and water wars are waged, with

Source: United Nations, 2022

APOCALYPSE GATED INSPERIENCE

As the permacrisis accelerates and social

Feeling abandoned and disempowered, people

To cope with hopelessness and loneliness, people

United Nations Chief Antonio

Increasing inequality widens the gap between

The fragmentation of societies also leads to social Exclusive conviviality

The gatekeeping on-trade model booms, with private

becomes the primary stage

For many, hosting at home is the most accessible

While home trade dominates, the on-trade sector

+1.76°C 8.53Bn $34,148

Female Innovation serves