Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Predictive Cash Forecasting in Cloud EPM 4-11-24
Predictive Cash Forecasting in Cloud EPM 4-11-24
Today’s Agenda
• Business Challenges
• Introducing Predictive Cash Forecasting
• User Personas
• Key Concepts: Line Items and Forecast Methods
• Overview Demo
• Assets and Resources
• Q&A
Today’s Agenda
• Business Challenges
• Introducing Predictive Cash Forecasting
• User Personas
• Key Concepts: Line Items and Forecast Methods
• Overview Demo
• Assets and Resources
• Q&A
1 Cashflow forecasting
44%
OF TREASURERS CONSIDER CASH-
3
Replacement of existing tools / Technology
reviews
FLOW FORECASTING AS THEIR
MAJOR PRIORITY
4 Liquidity risk management
Cash positioning
•
•
Rolling ~10 business days
Short term liquidity planning; no idle
Cash forecasting
balances on non-interest or low-interest- • ~3-6 months / 13-18 weeks
bearing accounts
• Interest & debt reduction; covenant & key date Long range cash planning
• Commonly used tools: ERP cash visibility; liquidity risk management; working
management module, treasury station • ~1-5 years, depending on industry
capital optimization
• Cash impacts of strategic business scenarios (e.g.
• Commonly used tools: spreadsheets, email,
M&A, new market entry, etc.); focus on key liquidity
phone calls
ratios/debt covenant thresholds
• Commonly used tools: spreadsheets
Today’s Agenda
• Business Challenges
• Introducing Predictive Cash Forecasting
• User Personas
• Key Concepts: Line Items and Forecast Methods
• Overview Demo
• Assets and Resources
• Q&A
Planning modules
Predictive Cash
Forecasting
Sales Netsuite
Capital Projects
planning planning
ESG Healthcare
provider
Order Management
Subscription Management
Accounts Payable
Payroll
AI/ML
Incentive Compensation Engine
Property Management
General Ledger
Treasury Management
Financial/Operational Planning
Treasury Management
Systems (TMS)
Today’s Agenda
• Business Challenges
• Introducing Predictive Cash Forecasting
• User Personas
• Key Concepts: Line Items and Forecast Methods
• Overview Demo
• Assets and Resources
• Q&A
Receivables/Payables
Treasury Controller/Finance The Business
/Procurement
Their primary objective is They have the best knowledge They have a lot on their plate They work closest with
optimal liquidity management. of the financial inflows & and want to work as efficiently customers, partners &
However, they can’t do this outflows of the business. as possible. suppliers.
alone.
Today’s Agenda
• Business Challenges
• Introducing Predictive Cash Forecasting
• User Personas
• Key Concepts: Line Items and Forecast Methods
• Overview Demo
• Assets and Resources
• Q&A
Customer Receipts
1 2 4 5 6
Trend Machine
Planning Statistical
Methodology Manual Smart Driver Learning
3 Forecasting
Models
Type of Data Aggregated Data Transactional Data (RODS)
1
Manual : Manual is entering cash flows directly when it cannot be modeled e.g. Equity Inflow, Tax Payments
2 Trend : Trend allows for driving the forecast based on historical actual or forecast data e.g. Labor payments, Lease Payments etc.
3 Driver-based: Business drivers are entered manually or loaded as operational assumptions that calculates a cash forecast (e.g. Avg DSO or Payterm for Expense),
where Sales Revenue, Expense, Salary or Capital Expense cash drivers are loaded while the forecast is calculated based on the defined payterm assumptions )
4 Statistical Forecasting: Statistical trends based on aggregated account balances (e.g. predict cash based on historical patterns of bank account balances by legal
entity)
5 Smart Driver/Heuristic Model: An approach to forecast problem-solving that applies general assumptions/rules to transactional data:
• Smart Drivers (e.g. use payment scheduled due dates for accounts receivable and or payable)
• Apply an ‘average delay’ by legal entity to all transactions
• Use ‘delivery date’ for sales orders or purchase orders
• Etc.
6 ML Model: Machine-generated forecast based on historical patterns or relationships in the various input variables (e.g. delay in cash receipts correlated with payment terms)
Forecast Method
Blend Forecast Methods
Tax Payments Driver based Manual ✓ Forecast Methods can vary for
different entities
Customer
Forecast for Week 10 at beginning of Week 3 Forecast Value Add (FVA):
Receipts
Forecast FVA vs. Naïve FVA vs. ✓ Forecast value add with
Actual Forecast
Accuracy Driver-based predictions over naïve forecast
Naïve Forecast method (e.g. trend, manual)
e.g. Trend / 85 85%
Manual ✓ Compare forecast accuracy with
different forecast methods
Driver-based 100
88 88% 3%
Forecast ✓ Assessed reviewing snapshot
Predictive forecast and comparing with
92 92% 7% 4% actuals for historical periods
Planning
Documentation
Video
Q: How is PCF different from cash flow planning in EPM Financial Planning ?
Ans. EPM Financial Planning module covers cash flow planning for longer term time horizons 1-3 years fulfilling the needs
of Financial Planning & Analysis teams that cover annual operating planning that goes across financial statement plans.
PCF focuses on short and medium term forecasts that covers time horizons of rolling 10-15 days and rolling 13-18 weeks
or 3-12 months horizons, fulfilling the needs of Treasury/Cash Managers or Controllers teams.
Q: Will existing Oracle Cloud EPM customers have to buy predictive cash forecasting ?
Ans. Predictive cash forecasting will be part of Oracle Cloud EPM Enterprise edition. As long as they are on the enterprise
edition of Oracle Cloud EPM, they will have access to predictive cash forecasting business process. They would need a
separate instance of Oracle Cloud EPM to deploy this application
Q: What about Legacy Cloud (EPBCS/PBCS) or Standard customer or customers not using Planning in EPM Cloud?
Ans. Customers would have to upgrade to Enterprise EPM to use Predictive Cash Forecasting.
8 Periodic Growth Calculates year over year change for a line item using current year and prior year as the Variable
basis to calculate the growth. Compensation
Predictive Planning:
Receivables Invoice 1,115,000 3,200,000 1,176,000 4,803,000 1,225,000 ✓ Across multiple dimensions
such as Legal Entity, Party
(Customer/Supplier), Business
Unit, Bank
Enable features:
✓ Time granularity
2 Entity Yes Entity structure – maps to Fusion ERP Legal Entity Standard
3 Period Yes Covers the daily, weekly and monthly periods Standard
5 Scenario Yes Covers Forecast, Actual, Variance, Reporting Scenarios and more can Standard
be added
6 Version Yes Covers Working, Whatif and more can be added Standard
7 Currency Yes PCF is always multi currency – Input and Reporting currencies Standard
8 Forecast Method Yes Multiple Forecast Methods and also covers sources PCF Specific
9 Business Unit Yes Business Units is dimension that maps to Fusion ERP BU PCF Specific
Optional for Non-Fusion ERP*
10 Bank Yes Bank is a seeded dimension, covers Banks and Bank Accounts under it PCF Specific
11 Party Yes Represents the Customers and Suppliers – maps to Fusion ERP. Party PCF Specific
Covers Top N Customers / Suppliers and rest are bucketed into others Optional for Non-Fusion ERP*
12 Category Yes Generic custom dimension used for driver based or can be used for PCF Specific
multiple purposes – source details from Fusion ERP
13 Custom No Additional custom dimension required for business Optional
42 Copyright © 2024, Oracle and/or its affiliates
* Can be repurposed with other custom dimensions if source is non-Fusion ERP
PCF Dimensions – Enable Features
Enable features:
✓ Sets the forecast range for daily and periodic, that shows up in forms
and dashboards
✓ Dynamic roll over based on system date and set ranges for
44 Copyright © 2024, Oracle and/or its affiliates
Key Calculation Rules
# Rules Description Comments
1 Process Actuals After loading data, this rule is run to calculate Separate rules for daily
the closing and opening balances, inflows, and periodic
outflows
2 Process Forecast After running process actuals, this populates Separate rules for daily
forecast – opening balance, forecasts based on and periodic
forecast methods
3 Rollup Entity Aggregates values in the Cash Forecasting Separate rules for daily
cubes to parent entities and reporting currency. and periodic
In Reporting, there is no need of this rule
4 Currency Conversion Converts input currency and reporting currency Separate rules for daily
based on defined exchange rates and periodic
5 Driver based calc rules 11 seeded driver-based calculation rules based Separate rules for daily
on defined cash drivers and periodic
6 Trend based calc rules Trend based calculations that can be executed Available for periodic
for periodic