HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS AND DISTRIBUTIONterminologies ¢ Population dynamics: is the branch of life sciences that studies short-term and long-term changes in the size and age composition of populations and the biological and environmental processes influencing those changes. ¢ Population change: calculated by subtracting the number of people leaving a population through death and emigration from the number entering it through birth and immigration during a specified period of time.Exponential Vs logistic or restricted population growth models CDExponential Cun restricted) growth 2S Growth rate the Population Accetersten ee o Time * Exponential growth of a population occurs when a population has a continuous birth rate throughout time, and is never hindered by the absence of food or the abundance of disease. * Human populations are said t o be growing exponentially (Chiras, D. 1998). ¢ This exponential growth is a concern.(6) Logistic (restricted) growth Carrying capacity Population ze Time ¢ Logistic : population growth depend on food , predators etc. As such the population approaches the upper limit of the number of individuals the | environment can support. This upper limit is | referred to as its "carrying capacity." e We can expect the population to increase | exponentially up to a point, and then suddenly level | off as resources become scarce.Trends in human population « Human population exhibited dramatic changes during the 20th century; the world population grew from almost 2 billion people in 1930 up to 6 on in 2000. Forecasts of a global world population of 9200 billion people by year 2050, are based on current fertility and mortality rate trends (United Nations 2007).Average annual growth rate ———“a8 pos ree aks sderesanne | PRDrivers of population trends Total erty Rate 1. Fertility: The number of births that | can be expected to occur in a typical woman in a given society during her child bearing years. This depends on: eee i e Woman's fecundity: physiological ability to bear children. e Number of women married/relationship, contraception and abortions. 5 Choice to marry and working class Pree i United Nations. World Population women especially in developed countries. 0 ta) At Resets pets— 2. Mortality This is high among infants and the elderly. Life expectancy: the average age that a new born can be expected to attain. This has increased due to mechanization in agriculture and improved health facilities. There is a large gap between the developed and developing nations. Ue Bepecesney | | = 10 1910 fe) 1H) a [racks © Mn credipedeegan -e Lesa dr poondreges Source: 2004. United Nations. World Population Prospects._— 3. Migration * Geographical population shifts within nations and across boarders. This is less predictable over long periods since it can happen in sudden waves e.g wars. Immigration often strains social services. On the positive side, it can provide needed labor (both skilled and unskilled). For source countries, however, immigration may drain away valuable talent, especially since educated and motivated people are most likely to migrate in search of opportunities.— Why study human population trends? * help to determine the environmental impact of human activities. Rising populations put increasing demands on natural resources such as land, water, and energy supplies. ° As human communities use more resources, they generate contaminants, such as air and water pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions, along with increasing quantities of waste.Determining environmental impact using IPAT model Population interacts with several other factors to determine a society’s environmental impact. One widely-cited formula is the "| = PAT" equation, proposed by Paul R. Ehrlich and John P. Holdren in 1974 Environmental Impact = Population x Affluence (or consumption) x Technology As the consumption of each person increases, the total environmental impact increases as well.- Both developed and developing nations playa role in environmental decline costly environmental effects of overconsumption among the slowly increasing populations of the developed nations. * Developed countries: Low P, High A and T: consumption driven pollution ° Developing countries: High P, Low A and T; Population driven pollution.Why concerned about population growth? * Carrying capacity is the number of organisms an environment oe the Earth) can Weg advances in Sees ae & medicine. ¢ Some believe Earth's carrying capacity has alresey exceeded as illustrated by: — polluted air depleted fisheries Deforestation Extinction of species Global warming_— °°} a Population environment interaction 1. Land use: Growing population lead to the expansion of food production through forest clearing, to intensify production on already cultivated land, or to develop the infrastructure necessary to support increasing human numbers. This puts stress on soils, increase pesticide use and demand for irrigation. ¢ Results in destruction of forests, wetlands as well as species that live in these places._ Se - __ 2. Global climate change « Demographic influence to climate change is due to: contributions related to industrial production and energy consumption lead to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use. land-use changes, such as deforestation, affect the exchange of carbon dioxide between the Earth and the atmosphere. some agricultural processes, such as paddy-rice cultivation and livestock production, are responsible for greenhouse gas releases into the atmosphere, especially methane.pe eS Schools of thought on population and the environment 1. In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views on the effect of population on food supply in his famous book, Essay on the | Principle of Population . His theory has two basic principles: — Population grows at an exponential rate i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc. _ — Food production increases at an arithmetic rate i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. Therefore, population will inevitably exceed food supply.a However Malthus suggest population checks * Population would rise until a limit to growth was reached. Further growth would be limited when: — Preventive/negative checks - postponement of marriage (lowering of fertility rate), increased cost of food etc. -——— rasanmiaac- TRUE OT aeee f BuartityPositive checks * Any causes that contributed to the shortening of human life spans e.g famine, war, disease, would increase the death rate then reduce population. { Mattns: paciive cheoks } Quanityae Ester Boserup Theory of population growth (1965) In contrast to Malthus, instead of too many mouths to feed, Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of a large population; In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more people there are, the more hands there are to work; She argued that as population increases, more pressure is placed on the existing agricultural system, which stimulates invention; The changes in technology allow for improved crop strains and increased yields.ine ee This graph shows how the rate of food supply May vary but never reaches its Carrying capacity because every time it is getting near, there is an invention or development that causes the food supply to increase. Fece6 Sumpihy omepre Factors which influence how population affect the environment ° Population Size No simple relationship exists between population size and environmental change. However, as global population continues to grow, limits on such global resources as arable land, potable water, forests, and fisheries have come into sharper focus. ¢ Population Distribution Continued high fertility in many developing regions, coupled with low fertility in more-developed regions, means that 80 percent of the global population now less-developed nations. This exert pressure on already dwindling resources.~~ ¢ Population composition Young people are more likely than their older counterparts to migrate. As a result, given the relatively large younger generation, we might anticipate increasing levels of migration and urbanization, and therefore, intensified urban environmental concerns e.g pollution.ae Population and climate change * Regions with high population growth have in general low /capita GHG emissions. Eg an average person in south Asia where population is high emits about 3 tons of CO,/ yr, while average person in USA and Canada emits more than 25 tons of carbon/yr. Areas of rapid population growth overlap with areas of CC vulnerability. Nearly all of future population growth will occur in the developing world and often in places which are less resilient to climate change.e {Increase in population density can expose greater number of people to climate change related risks (droughts and extreme weather).eg Bangladesh and china near the coastal zone population grew between 1990-2000. « Adaptation plans identify challenges associated with rapid population growth. Population increase linked to pressure on forests leading to deforestation. * Climate migrants. CC is expected to trigger larger and more complex waves of human migration. Estimates of future climate migrants range from 200 million to 1 billion by 2050.