Modeling and Simulation

Agenda
• Context Realization
– Knowledge, Truth and Science
– System and Science
• Why Modeling and Simulation
• Conducting Science using Modeling and
Simulation
• Techniques for Modeling and Simulation
 Context Realization
• Graduate Studies
– MPhil Computer Science
– PhD Computer Science
Knowledge, Truth and Science

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 Knowledge, Truth and Science
• Knowledge
facts, information, and skills acquired by a
person through experience or education

we all see the world differently

our beliefs, biases and perception may

clutter reality
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 Knowledge, Truth and Science
• Truth
a fact or belief that is accepted as true or
in accordance with reality

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 Knowledge, Truth and Science
• Science
study of the structure and behavior of the
physical and natural world through
observation and experiment

systematic procedure to validate existing

knowledge and discover new knowledge

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 Knowledge, Truth and Science

Knowledge is our understanding about the

universe around and within us and science is a
systematic way to validate this understanding
(Karl Popper)

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 System
• Reality around and within ourselves is very
complex
Reality could be divided into various
systems for study (divide and conquer) like
Atom, Galaxy, Digestive System, Human
Brain, Transportation, Stock Market

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 System
• System is a set of components that work
together to achieve a common objective

Static System – does not change over time

Dynamics System – change over time
Natural System – nature made
Artificial System – man made

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 Natural Systems
• Natural Systems (the study of Nature)
Sociological System – colonies
Psychological System – animals
Biological System – organisms
Chemical System – compounds
Physical System – atomic particles
Emergence as a property of a complex system
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 Artificial Systems
• Artificial Systems (the study of man made
artifacts)
Software Eng. – interaction of logical constructs
Urban Eng. – interaction of human in a built env.
Civil Eng. – interaction of physical structures
Mechanical Eng. – interaction of external forces
Electrical Eng. – interaction of electricity and inst.
Chemical Eng. – interaction of internal forces

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 Natural Science
• Natural Science
The inquiry in the natural science is of the
form of finding out the objectivity and
functionality of an object / system
It is based on empirical cycle of discovery
(theorization) and justification (empirical
validation)
Natural Science has descriptive nature

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 Design Science
• Design Science
The inquiry of the design science is to
design an artefact / system to achieve a
desired objective
It is based on regulative cycle of build
(design of artifact) and evaluate
(performance measure)
Design Science has prescriptive nature

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 Computer Science
• Computer Science
carries both aspects of science which
means it is natural as well as design

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 Computer Science
• Natural Computer Science
what is computable and what is not
(theory of computability)
how efficiently something could be
computed (theory of computational
complexity)

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 Computer Science
• Design Computer Science
write a program that can confirm some
specification (prescriptive, build and
evaluate cycle)

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 System Modeling (abstraction)
• Model is an abstraction of the reality
– iconic model are physical models, like a model of
an airplane or a map of a region
– symbolic model like the computer instructions or
a mathematical equation (E = mC2)
• Why to abstract or model the reality?
To enhance our understanding of the world
dynamics around and within ourselves under
different conditions

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 Modeling and Simulation
• Computational Modeling and Simulation is a
computer science method to understand
systems

Computational Modeling = Computable + Model

• Computable means something that could be

expressed in the form of an algorithm

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 Modeling and Simulation
• Computational Modeling is the study of a
system through its modeling as a computer
program and simulation means to run this
program to understand its behavior
• Why to model systems as a computer
program to study?

• Several reasons ☺

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Why Modeling and Simulation

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 Why Modeling and Simulation
• System does not exists – Designing a New Aircraft System
• Systems is impossible to build to test – National Economy
• Real System handling is too expensive or hazardous –
Military combat
• Real System handling is unethical – Banning of veil in a
Society
• System forecasting is required for a long period of time –
population growth, urbanization study
• Mathematical System does not have an analytical solution –
Stochastic problems, non linear differential equations

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 Why Modeling and Simulation
• World around us is becoming complex over time
– Innovations and Technological Advancements
– Emergence of Man Machine Relationship
– Turning of World into a Global Village
– Increase in Human Population
– Scarcity of Natural Resources
– Pollution and increase in Environmental Hazards
– Spread of Epidemics
– Economic Competition of Nations and Clash of
Civilizations

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 Why Modeling and Simulation
• To see how these and related forces (including
human physiology and psychology) will shape
future of human civilizations is only possible
through Modeling and Simulation

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 Conducting Science
Using
Computational Modeling (CM)

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 Conducting Science Using CM
• A system could be studied in two ways using
computational techniques
– Bottom Up Modeling: if the internal detail of the
components of the system is not available and only
observable data of system behavior is known then bottom
up techniques of data mining or model learning can be
used to understand and predict system behavior
– Top Down Modeling: if the components and their
interactions in the system are known then such a system
could be modeled in computer and its behavior can be
analyzed through computer simulation to see how it will
behave in different scenarios

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 Conducting Science Using M&S
• Top Down Modeling through computer simulation
(usually called system modeling and simulation) is to
see how the system will behave under different
conditions
• Here system modeling means writing a computer
program and simulation means executing this
program to collect results for various analyses (study
of system’s behavior)

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 Conducting Science Using M&S

Select a System Design its Simulate and Verify Model Using

to Study Computational Generate Model its Output
Model Output (if it works as desired)

Compare Output Collect Data of Design and Conduct

of Simulation and Real System Experiment with Real
Real System Experiment System

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 System Modeling and Simulation
• To simulate a model and generate output
model may require some model settings
(parameter values) and input data to work on
Input of the Model Model Output of the Model

• Usually Input Modeling is performed to

design appropriate input for the model

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Techniques for Modeling and
Simulation

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 Continuous Time Modeling (Example)
• SIR Epidemic Spread Model
– SIR stands for three populations Susceptible, Infected,
Recovered
– Assume following variables and parameters
• S (t) = susceptible population at time t
• I (t) = infected population at time t
• R (t) = recovered population at time t
• β = infection rate
• γ = recovery rate
– Relationship between these three populations could be
modeled as follows
• dS/dt = - β I S
• dR/dt = γ I
• dI/dt = β I S - γ I

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Continuous Time Modeling (Example)
• SIR Epidemic Spread Model
– β = 1.4247
– γ = 0.14286
– S(0) = 0.999999
– I(0) = 0.000001

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Agent Based Modeling

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 Agent Based Modeling
• Would not it be more realistic to model each
individual person to simulate epidemic spread
rather then as of populations?
• Every individual’s health, mobility, liking,
priorities etc should be modeled
• Model should let these individuals interact with
each other as of their preferences and produce
epidemic spread results
• To model this and such related social and multi-
actor phenomena agent based modeling is used
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 Agent Based Modeling
• Agent is an autonomous entity which have some
goals to achieve through its action
– Knowledge of the agent about its environment and
itself are called its believes
– Based on agent’s believes agent makes plans to
achieve its goals
– Plans are converted into executable actions to
through which it may/may not achieve its goals
– If agent fails to achieve its goals then agent updates its
believes about the environment which is called agent
learning

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 Multiagent Modeling and Simulation
• A multi-agent system is comprised of
– Individual agent design
– Inter-agent communication protocol
• Multi agent modeling and simulation (MAS) is being
heavily used for social simulation
• Every agent in the system has its own believes and
goals
• Agents try to achieve their goals through a set action
including communication with other agents
• Communication among agent may yield
– Cooperation (personal or collective interest)
– Coordination
– Competition
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 Multiagent Systems
• Any social system can be studied using MAS
– Crime Dynamics
– Urban Traffic flow
– Spread of Epidemic
– Foreign Policy
– Global Economy
– Work Group Dynamics
– Crowd Dynamics
– Business Product Acceptance

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