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Course Title:
Business Statistics
Course Code:
BUS-7203
Term Paper On: “Statistical Analysis on the impact of various factors on GDP"
Submitted To:
Asst. Prof. Md. Azharul Islam
Faculty of Business Studies (FBS)
Bangladesh University of Professionals
Submitted By:
Md. Fahim Ahmed Reza
ID: 23230332137
Section-C, Batch-32
MBA Professional
Bangladesh University of Professionals
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Contents
1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 Problem Statement...................................................................................................................... 3
1.2 Importance of Customer Relationships in Banks: ................................................................... 4
2.0 Rational Of the study ...................................................................................................................... 4
3.0 Research Hypothesis ....................................................................................................................... 5
3.1 Limitations of the Study ................................................................................................................. 5
4.0 Research Strategy ........................................................................................................................... 6
4.1 Research Method ........................................................................................................................ 6
4.2 Data & List of Variables............................................................................................................. 7
5.0 Statistical Tests ............................................................................................................................ 7
5.1 Multiple regression analysis ........................................................................................................... 9
5.3.1 Hypothesis Testing ............................................................................................................. 10
5.3.2 Coefficient and Correlation Output ......................................................................................... 14
6.0 Bangladesh Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 19
7.0 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 19
References:........................................................................................................................................... 21
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1.0 Introduction
Bangladesh is a developing country in South Asia. Bangladesh is one of the world’s fastest-
growing economies. The World Bank called Bangladesh A Model for Poverty Reduction. The
whole world was praising Bangladesh. Many big economists and experts believe that
Bangladesh will become a developed country by 2041, avoiding the middle-income trap that
is not a myth but a reality if the country sustains its current growth momentum. Different
articles portray that Bangladesh’s success story is a lesson in development for the modern
world.
Bangladesh was also growing at a great speed, but unfortunately, recently the petrol prices have
increased by 50% in a matter of days. India falls behind Bangladesh in per capita income by
$280, and this is from just a year ago. An average person from Bangladesh earned RS 22000
more than an average person in India. Where India’s GDP growth rate was slowing down year
on year, Bangladesh’s GDP was constantly growing till the year 2019. Even in 2020, when
India’s economy contracted by 8% while Bangladesh’s economy grew by 3.4%. Recently in
2022 Bangladesh asked for a $4.5 billion loan package from the IMF. Previously, Bangladesh
received at least $1.7 billion in loans from multilateral agencies by June 2020, and by October
2021, each had borrowed at least 3 billion dollars from development partners as budget support
to combat the adverse impact of the pandemic. The IMF, the World Bank, and the United States
charge interest on their loans, which must be paid at some point. It also obtained $61 million
doses of COVID-19 vaccines from the United States free of charge. And to run this vaccination
program they took $1.4 billion from the World Bank. Even after getting all this help,
Bangladesh should have been on the right track in 2022. The economy should have been back
to normal, but that did not happen As a result, Bangladesh’s economic growth is shrinking and
fuel prices in the country suddenly increased by 50%, also the prices of daily commodities are
rapidly rising. So considering the current situation, a detailed discussion on Economic Growth
and Crisis can play an important tool in the study. Thus it needs to study, understand, and learn.
This paper aims to identify the overall impact of economic and financial growth determinants
on the “GDP Annual Growth” of the economy in Bangladesh and provide a scenario of the
recent situation of the impact of fluctuating GDP Annual Growth in the economy by the
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determinants as well as discuss the various aspects of the economic crisis so that the reader can
What are the factors that determine financial and economic growth indicators?
What are the impacts and effects of fluctuating financial and economic growth
determinants?
What will be the trend and movements of the determinants of GDP over the period of
time?
What are the reform agenda to create prominent and constant economic growth for
Bangladesh?
Annual Growth and Financial and Economic growth determinants as well as estimate the
contribution of fluctuating factors. Also, another focus of this study is to identify the effective
contribution of determinants that gives better performance towards GFP annual growth and
discuss the aspects of the economic growth system. Here the topic purely focused on the
condition of GDP Annual Growth in Bangladesh where the study will highlight the fluctuation
of Financial and Economic growth determinants that have changed over a selected period of
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time, identify the most highlighting the most economic-financial indicators, compare the core
economic forces, and forecast upcoming conditions that will give a glimpse into the economy's
in future.
Null hypothesis H0: GDP Annual Growth has no significant positive impact on financial and
economic determinants.
Alternative hypothesis H1: GDP Annual Growth has a significant positive impact on financial
This study uses annual data for the time period from 2000 to 2021 due to the availability
of data. However, this may cause the sample size rather small. Thus, longer time period
or the use of annual data can be considered for future studies. Besides, this study focuses
on evaluates the contributions of GDP determinants in Bangladesh only due to the time
constraint in carrying out the study. Future research could be conducted by making
comparison between few countries from the same or different regions in order to obtain
Lack of access to several key informants and constrained access to severely affected
sector.
Statistical Test constraint. There are some other relevant test might be taken to conduct
the analysis.
This study mainly focuses on the particular Eighth determinants of GDP annual
Growth. However, there are some other determinants of GDP which can be taken into
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consideration, such as poverty rate, labor force, Foreign Exchange Reserve, Balance of
Trade, Money Supply to examine whether these variables are important in influencing
financial determinants which have impact on the changes of GDP annual growth. In the context
of the background development of the study, the variables are now being pointed out. There is
plenty of space to carry out this investigation because the subject is comparably underexplored.
In perspective of this, the relevant data over the last 21 years is statistically evaluated. And
based on the analyses, the final write up has been done to convey the concepts in light of the
analyses.
impacts and contribution of “Bangladesh's GDP Annual Growth”. The World Bank's World
Development Indicators (WDI), Macro-Trend were used to obtain all of the data used in this
variables were expressed in percentages (%), confirming linearity. As a result, we did not need
to convert any variables to natural logarithm form. Various statistical techniques have been
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4.2 Data & List of Variables
Table 1 Data and List of Variables
Remittance (%)
In the analysis, the data was processed without any alteration. Thus, the conventional linear
long-run correlations between the determinants and Bangladesh's GDP annual growth can be
written as follows:
“GDP𝑡=𝛼+𝛽1DTG𝑡+𝛽2𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑡+𝛽3𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡+𝛽4REM𝑡+𝛽5POP𝑡+ 𝛽6GNI𝑡+𝛽7Un𝑡+𝛽8Ex𝑡+𝜀𝑡
For analyzing the data correctly and understanding the relationship between the dependent
and independent variables, some statistical tests have been performed. A brief highlight of the
Regression Analysis
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Econometric regression model has been used to run the multiple regression. Results are found
through collected data in regression model using MS Excel and STATA. The regression model
is as following:
Here, Y = dependent variable (GDP annual growth) α = intercept of the y-axis Βn = coefficient
of the respective variables ε = the random error term, which is the difference between the actual
value of a dependent variable and its predicted value. X = independent variables (Remittance,
inflation rate, import, export, unemployment rate etc) and GDP dependent variable and its
predicted value.
The correlation coefficient from Pearson's Correlation Matrix is a more feasible technique to
The correlation among all the independent variables needs to be equal to or smaller than 0.80.
If the output is greater than 0.80 (>0.80) that means the simple correlation matrix has high
correlation.
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Here, the simple correlation matrix shows that there is no variable with high correlation against
another.
To further assess the multicollinearity, we need to conduct VIF test. Variance Inflation Factors
can be used. High amounts of variance are detected, implying multicollinearity. As a rule of
And here the mean VIF for all variables is only 3.49 The output shows that the VIF for each
variable is significantly less than the cut-off value of 10. This lower VIF (<0.10) value suggests
After detecting and violets all the assumption now the data sets is ready to give better fit to
conduct the multiple regression analysis and It have been done to the given set of data which
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Dependent variable = GDP per Capital (%)
Null hypothesis H0: There is no significant impact and contribution of financial and economic
Alternative hypothesis H1: There is significant impact and contribution of financial and
The study use the following command to find the result of regression analysis.
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By running the regression command, the researcher get the values which indicates that the
model is fit. As the following model shows R-squared value is 71.91%, it can be said that say
that 71.91% of the model is explained by the regression model. The coefficient of
determination (R2) of the regression model indicates that approximately 71.91 % of the total
Adjusted R square is the modified version of R-square. And the value of Adjusted R-square
will always be less than or equal to R-square in the regression model. Here Adjusted R-square
is 54.62% which is lower than R-square and by adding a new independent variable to the
Model the r-square may increase. Through the percentage of Adjusted R-square, it can be said
The regression output demonstrates that the regression B0 coefficient value of inflation,
Population growth, and Gross National Income values are .0973, 1.81, and 0.767. It
indicates the positive coefficient relationship between the dependent and independent
variables that for each additional increase the GDP of BD will increase by inflation,
The output demonstrates the negative relationship of the unemployment rate, Debt to
rate, will decrease the growth of GDP, holding other variables constant. As well as the
1% increase in Debt of total GDP will decrease the Annual Growth GDP, holding other
variables constant
The B0 coefficient value of Foreign Direct Investment, Export, and Remittance hold the
will increase the result to 48.3%, 11.4%, 47.3% increase in Annual Growth in GDP,
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The significant coefficient value of Economic indicators output demonstrates that the
coefficient value of each positive indicator suggests that 1% increase of these variables
will increase the progress of GDP annual growth by output, holding other variables
constant.
And the independent variables who hold the negative B0 coefficient value, have adverse
relation with GDP annual growth. As a result, 1% decrease in the particular output will
T-tests have been conducted to give the overview of the study that how the independent
variable explains the variation in the dependent variable by testing the hypothesis that hold
The t-values for inflation, Unemployment, and Debt to GDP are .90, -1.20, and -3.27,
Investment have t-values are 2.11, 1.14, 0.72 consecutively. The rest of the variables,
Export, and Remittance have significant T values which are 0.80 and 2.88.
From the Z table value, the critical value of l two-tailed t-values is ± 2.831.The researcher get
the T-stat intercept from the output which is 2.88 and the Degree of Freedom is 21.As a result,
here t-stat > t-critical 2.88 > 2.831 at 1% significance level. Thus, the researcher can reject the
null hypothesis and the study conclude that the slope is different from zero as well as slope
coefficient is statistically significant .The intercept of t-value is higher than 2.831 (From Z
Table), the critical value of 1% significance level. Hence, it can be concluded that inflation,
Export, Remittance, GNI, FDI, and Population Growth have a significant relationship with at
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And unemployment rate, Debt to GDP hold negative coefficients as well as Negative T-values
so it can be indicated that these variables gives less impact on the progression of GDP Annual
growth
P Value- In the regression analysis process, it is one of the most common methods of
hypothesis testing that has to be done with regression coefficient whether to test statistical
output is significant or not. As a rule of thumb when the p-value become the smallest level of
In short,
If P values >0.05 = the null hypothesis cannot be rejected and the sample data is not
enough or significant and that means the result is not statistically significant.
P values <0.05(significance level) = the null hypothesis can be rejected. The result is
statistically significant.
Here P value of this model is 0.01.That means 0.01< 0.05.Considering the other aspects, it
shows that the model provides a better fit to give a statistically significant result.
F-test-F-test evaluates the set of independent variables as a group how well they can be
Here, the obtained value of F test statistics is 4.16. And from the F table, critical value of Fc
is 2.77. That means 4.16>2.77. Thus the researcher can reject the null hypothesis at a 5%
significance and the rejection of null hypothesis indicated that the regression model carries the
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After all the analysis of regression output, it stated and proved that the independent variables
have a significant impact statistical impact on the dependent variable. The study reject the null
hypothesis thus there is a significant impact of financial and economic determinants to evaluate
Next, the researcher conducted correlation analysis to assess the correlation among the
variables and analyze the relationship between independent variables and dependent variables.
The correlation matrix shows that GDP has a positive and significant correlation with the
independent variables. Also, the independent variables have interrelated with each other which
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Remittance 0.1397 0.6507* 0.2092 -0.4182 0.3640 0.2390 0.7107* 0.8100* 1.00
0.5353 0.0010 0.3500 0.0528 0.0958 0.2841 0.0002 0.000
Inflation Rate-At first there is a significant positive relationship between GDP annual
growth and inflation rate over the years. There are many substantial reasons of positive
inflation rate with GDP in Bangladesh Economic growth sector. Increasing production
as well as increasing profitable firms invest their huge investment for leading the
making more money and increasing employment, Government trying to stabilize the
country’s GDP growth by making revenue through a huge portion of the direct tax such
as income tax, and company tax. In short, the demand for goods and services may
increase than supply more rapidly as well as cause prices to rise. And the strong labor
market will encourage firms to increase wages to consume the higher prices and
maximize profits.
decrease and the GDP per capital growth will increase. Another highlighted point is
there seems positive relationship between the Unemployment rate and the Inflation rate
inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. But Bangladesh has been
faced large fluctuations in inflation rates over the years, which affects the increasing
level of unemployment levels. In short, it can be said that as the inflation rate is higher
the unemployment rate in the country remains higher in the long run relationship. It is
also notable that long-term trends seem quite more accurate than short-term trends
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considering the particular aspects to give a better explanation. Cause inflation rate in
Bangladesh often changes over 21 years. Though the relationship between inflation and
unemployment became complex the higher inflation rate causes the arising
unemployment rate in the model of the study. If the inflation rate is increasing at 1%,
rates. GDP and unemployment rates are typically correlated because a reduction in GDP
From the table, it is found that the coefficient of Export, population growth, FDI,
opportunities but the outcome does not signify at 5% probability level. The coefficient
of GDP and inflation relates the expected sign and besides foreign direct investment
gives expected result which means increases in FDI will enhance the unemployment
rate. The foreign direct investment is significant at 5% probability level. Besides, level
of significance for FDI supports the long run influence in the unemployment rate of
Bangladesh.
From the output of the table, the researcher found that coefficient value of Debt to GDP
is statistically significant and negative correlation with the GDP, Inflation rate and
The correlation matrix shows that GDP has a positive and significant correlation with
gross national income at 5% significance level. If the GNI (Gross National Income)
is increase arise at 5% significance level as well as the GDP rate will be higher. And if
the GNI will decrease the Government Debt to GDP as well as increase at a significance
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level. From the output table of, it is found that coefficient value of population growth,
Population growth has the positive significant correlation with GDP,as well as
emphasizes GDP and population growth has direct relationship to make successful
is enhancing, the taxes and additional human capital make the economy emerge. As
well as it is notified that increase population growth encourage the GDP annual growth
in Bangladesh.
The regression of the study have showed that there is direct correlation between FDI
(Foreign Direct Investment) and GDP 5% significance level. FDI (Foreign Direct
Investment) also has a positive and significant correlation with GNI, Population
growth and inflation at 5% significance level. Also the FDI has a significant negative
relationship with the Debt to credit GDP at significance level. As FDI increase the
expansionary investment opportunity and profit/sales, higher FDI increase the Gross
National Income. But if the FDI becomes lower, it will generate the proportion of higher
Government Debt. It has been assumed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is an
important factor of economic growth. It is the most the dynamic element as investment
is of gross domestic product (GDP) and FDI is one of the independent variable which
affect the annual growth of GDP meaningfully in the emerging economic Bangladesh
.The researcher showed the analysis through the output of studies Bangladesh has the
consistency increase Foreign Direct Investment attract the GDP growth rate. The
research study has shown the substantial correlations of FDI with Inflation, Debt to
GDP. By the validation of the relationship between the variables is the main aim of the
research study.
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Exports is another vital component of contribution of the annual growth in GDP in the
economy. The relationships with GDP gives positive correlation that have shown in
output at 5% significance level. Also there is direct negative correlation between the
result. In Bangladesh, diversification of RMG sector estimate the strong evidence that
expanding demand in Export and the global trade from Bangladesh in higher terms
reduce the unemployment and government debt. Also the export has the significant
positive relationship with population growth at 5% significance level. Thus adding the
in GDP. From the table the study found that Remittance has significant positive impact
Remittance will increase the output of a country which reflect the annual economic
growth of GDP in Bangladesh. Current debt to GDP has become a matter of concern
After all the discussion and from the output have identified the most influential as well as
significance indicators are Foreign Direct Investment, exports and Remittance in emerging
economy in Bangladesh. There are similar correlations and positive relationship between
emerging remittance and Foreign Direct Investment, exports, Remittance and inflation. The
robust and highly significant Remittance bring currency into the country, which is increasing
the exporting nation's GDP. At the same time, exports show a significant positive impact in the
absolute term with the lag period in the long-run there is significant relationship between
exports and Remittance in Bangladesh. There are significant relationship in, Debt to GDP,
Remittance, FDI, Export, Gross national Income and foreign direct investment with GDP.
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6.0 Bangladesh Economic Outlook
Bangladesh has achieved a remarkable history of expansion and development track record.
From the study the researcher find output that over the past ten years, Bangladesh became has
obtained the world's fastest economic growth, encouraged along by a demographic dividend,
conditions. And after the COVID-19 outbreak, the country's economy recovered quickly.
Bangladesh's incredible story of progress and poverty eradication is told to the globe.
Bangladesh, which was one of the poorest countries when it was founded in 1971, attained
lower-middle income classification in 2015. It is expected to leave the UN's list of least
developed nations (LDC) in 2026. Based on the international poverty line of $1.90 per day,
poverty decreased from 43.5 percent in 1991 to 14.3 percent in 2016 (utilizing 2011 Buying
Power Equality swapping scale). Besides, there was improvement in numerous areas of human
development.
7.0 Conclusion
Bangladesh's economy has been expanding sustainably since a few years ago, as measured by
GDP growth. "Good governance" is the cause of Bangladesh's GDP growth. Therefore, an
effective government can be extremely important to Bangladesh's economy. The main issue
facing our nation is corruption and political instability. So political instability will reduce once
solid administration is created. The World Bank predicts that Bangladesh would leave the
United Nations' list of least developed nations by 2026 if its current rate of economic growth
is maintained. However, Bangladesh will stop receiving GSP benefits from 37 nations,
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including Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Japan, Canada, and 28 members of the European
Union, after 2026 since it is a developing nation. Bangladesh should indeed continue to
according to the findings of the research, debt burden has a major negative impact on
Bangladesh's economic growth. Bangladesh's national burden of servicing its external debt
causes a slowdown in GDP. This report suggested that Bangladesh explore at debt reduction
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References:
Habibur Rahman. (2018). Making a More Effective Monetary Framework: Difficulties
for Muhammad Badrul Hasan.Sodip. (2021). Globalization and Bangladesh Economy: A
Critical Assessment. Bangladesh.
Roy,
Sachs, J. (2002). Resolving the proverty Crisis of Low Income Countries. Brooking
Papers on Economic, PP 1-28. .
The World Bank In Bangladesh. (2021, December). Retrieved from The World Bank:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/bangladesh/overview#
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