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Bangladesh University of Professionals

Course Title:
Business Statistics
Course Code:
BUS-7203
Term Paper On: “Statistical Analysis on the impact of various factors on GDP"

Submitted To:
Asst. Prof. Md. Azharul Islam
Faculty of Business Studies (FBS)
Bangladesh University of Professionals

Submitted By:
Md. Fahim Ahmed Reza
ID: 23230332137
Section-C, Batch-32
MBA Professional
Bangladesh University of Professionals

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Contents
1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 Problem Statement...................................................................................................................... 3
1.2 Importance of Customer Relationships in Banks: ................................................................... 4
2.0 Rational Of the study ...................................................................................................................... 4
3.0 Research Hypothesis ....................................................................................................................... 5
3.1 Limitations of the Study ................................................................................................................. 5
4.0 Research Strategy ........................................................................................................................... 6
4.1 Research Method ........................................................................................................................ 6
4.2 Data & List of Variables............................................................................................................. 7
5.0 Statistical Tests ............................................................................................................................ 7
5.1 Multiple regression analysis ........................................................................................................... 9
5.3.1 Hypothesis Testing ............................................................................................................. 10
5.3.2 Coefficient and Correlation Output ......................................................................................... 14
6.0 Bangladesh Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 19
7.0 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 19
References:........................................................................................................................................... 21

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1.0 Introduction
Bangladesh is a developing country in South Asia. Bangladesh is one of the world’s fastest-
growing economies. The World Bank called Bangladesh A Model for Poverty Reduction. The
whole world was praising Bangladesh. Many big economists and experts believe that
Bangladesh will become a developed country by 2041, avoiding the middle-income trap that
is not a myth but a reality if the country sustains its current growth momentum. Different
articles portray that Bangladesh’s success story is a lesson in development for the modern
world.

Bangladesh was also growing at a great speed, but unfortunately, recently the petrol prices have

increased by 50% in a matter of days. India falls behind Bangladesh in per capita income by

$280, and this is from just a year ago. An average person from Bangladesh earned RS 22000

more than an average person in India. Where India’s GDP growth rate was slowing down year
on year, Bangladesh’s GDP was constantly growing till the year 2019. Even in 2020, when
India’s economy contracted by 8% while Bangladesh’s economy grew by 3.4%. Recently in
2022 Bangladesh asked for a $4.5 billion loan package from the IMF. Previously, Bangladesh
received at least $1.7 billion in loans from multilateral agencies by June 2020, and by October
2021, each had borrowed at least 3 billion dollars from development partners as budget support
to combat the adverse impact of the pandemic. The IMF, the World Bank, and the United States
charge interest on their loans, which must be paid at some point. It also obtained $61 million
doses of COVID-19 vaccines from the United States free of charge. And to run this vaccination
program they took $1.4 billion from the World Bank. Even after getting all this help,
Bangladesh should have been on the right track in 2022. The economy should have been back
to normal, but that did not happen As a result, Bangladesh’s economic growth is shrinking and
fuel prices in the country suddenly increased by 50%, also the prices of daily commodities are
rapidly rising. So considering the current situation, a detailed discussion on Economic Growth
and Crisis can play an important tool in the study. Thus it needs to study, understand, and learn.

1.1 Problem Statement

This paper aims to identify the overall impact of economic and financial growth determinants

on the “GDP Annual Growth” of the economy in Bangladesh and provide a scenario of the

recent situation of the impact of fluctuating GDP Annual Growth in the economy by the

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determinants as well as discuss the various aspects of the economic crisis so that the reader can

clearly understand the problem described.

1.2 Importance of Customer Relationships in Banks:


In the banking sector, customer relationships hold an unparalleled significance, transcending
mere transactions to become the cornerstone of sustained success and competitive advantage.
The importance of fostering and nurturing these relationships is multifaceted, influencing
various facets of a bank's operations and long-term viability.

 What are the factors that determine financial and economic growth indicators?

 How is "GDP Annual Growth" influenced by economic and financial indicators?

 What are the impacts and effects of fluctuating financial and economic growth

determinants?

 What will be the trend and movements of the determinants of GDP over the period of

time?

 What are the reform agenda to create prominent and constant economic growth for

Bangladesh?

2.0 Rational Of the study


This study undertakes an econometric analysis to examine the relationship between GDP

Annual Growth and Financial and Economic growth determinants as well as estimate the

contribution of fluctuating factors. Also, another focus of this study is to identify the effective

contribution of determinants that gives better performance towards GFP annual growth and

discuss the aspects of the economic growth system. Here the topic purely focused on the

condition of GDP Annual Growth in Bangladesh where the study will highlight the fluctuation

of Financial and Economic growth determinants that have changed over a selected period of

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time, identify the most highlighting the most economic-financial indicators, compare the core

economic forces, and forecast upcoming conditions that will give a glimpse into the economy's

in future.

3.0 Research Hypothesis

Null hypothesis H0: GDP Annual Growth has no significant positive impact on financial and

economic determinants.

Alternative hypothesis H1: GDP Annual Growth has a significant positive impact on financial

and economic determinants.

3.1 Limitations of the Study

 This study uses annual data for the time period from 2000 to 2021 due to the availability

of data. However, this may cause the sample size rather small. Thus, longer time period

or the use of annual data can be considered for future studies. Besides, this study focuses

on evaluates the contributions of GDP determinants in Bangladesh only due to the time

constraint in carrying out the study. Future research could be conducted by making

comparison between few countries from the same or different regions in order to obtain

more empirical findings.

 Lack of access to several key informants and constrained access to severely affected

sector.

 Statistical Test constraint. There are some other relevant test might be taken to conduct

the analysis.

 This study mainly focuses on the particular Eighth determinants of GDP annual

Growth. However, there are some other determinants of GDP which can be taken into

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consideration, such as poverty rate, labor force, Foreign Exchange Reserve, Balance of

Trade, Money Supply to examine whether these variables are important in influencing

the GDP in Bangladesh.

4.0 Research Strategy


To conduct the study, the larger goal of this research is to illuminate aspects of economic and

financial determinants which have impact on the changes of GDP annual growth. In the context

of the background development of the study, the variables are now being pointed out. There is

plenty of space to carry out this investigation because the subject is comparably underexplored.

In perspective of this, the relevant data over the last 21 years is statistically evaluated. And

based on the analyses, the final write up has been done to convey the concepts in light of the

analyses.

4.1 Research Method


To conduct the research fruitfully, the researcher used mainly "quantitative" research
method
This research collected 21 years of yearly time series data from 2000 to 2021 to find the key

impacts and contribution of “Bangladesh's GDP Annual Growth”. The World Bank's World

Development Indicators (WDI), Macro-Trend were used to obtain all of the data used in this

study. World Development Indicators is a database of relevant, high-quality, and

internationally comparable statistics on global development and poverty alleviation. All

variables were expressed in percentages (%), confirming linearity. As a result, we did not need

to convert any variables to natural logarithm form. Various statistical techniques have been

used to fulfill the purpose.

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4.2 Data & List of Variables
Table 1 Data and List of Variables

Dependent Variables Independent Variables

 Inflation rate (%)

 Total Export (%)

 Remittance (%)

GDP Annual Growth (%)  Unemployment Rate (%)

 Govt. Debt to GDP (%)

 Population Growth (%)

 Gross National Income (Annual Growth %)

 Foreign Direct Investment (Net inflows %)

In the analysis, the data was processed without any alteration. Thus, the conventional linear

long-run correlations between the determinants and Bangladesh's GDP annual growth can be

written as follows:

“GDP𝑡=𝛼+𝛽1DTG𝑡+𝛽2𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑡+𝛽3𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡+𝛽4REM𝑡+𝛽5POP𝑡+ 𝛽6GNI𝑡+𝛽7Un𝑡+𝛽8Ex𝑡+𝜀𝑡

5.0 Statistical Tests

For analyzing the data correctly and understanding the relationship between the dependent

and independent variables, some statistical tests have been performed. A brief highlight of the

tests has been discussed below.

Regression Analysis

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Econometric regression model has been used to run the multiple regression. Results are found

through collected data in regression model using MS Excel and STATA. The regression model

is as following:

Y= α + β1X1+ β2X2+ β3X3 + β4X4 + … + βnXn + ε

Here, Y = dependent variable (GDP annual growth) α = intercept of the y-axis Βn = coefficient

of the respective variables ε = the random error term, which is the difference between the actual

value of a dependent variable and its predicted value. X = independent variables (Remittance,

inflation rate, import, export, unemployment rate etc) and GDP dependent variable and its

predicted value.

Pearson Correlation matrix

The correlation coefficient from Pearson's Correlation Matrix is a more feasible technique to

check for collinearity.

Figure 1 Pearson Correlation matrix

The correlation among all the independent variables needs to be equal to or smaller than 0.80.

If the output is greater than 0.80 (>0.80) that means the simple correlation matrix has high

correlation.

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Here, the simple correlation matrix shows that there is no variable with high correlation against

another.

2. Variance Inflation Factor

To further assess the multicollinearity, we need to conduct VIF test. Variance Inflation Factors

can be used. High amounts of variance are detected, implying multicollinearity. As a rule of

thumb, if the VIF is greater than ten, there is a problem.

Figure 2 Variance Inflation Factor

And here the mean VIF for all variables is only 3.49 The output shows that the VIF for each

variable is significantly less than the cut-off value of 10. This lower VIF (<0.10) value suggests

that there is no multicollinearity problem in our data.

5.1 Multiple regression analysis

After detecting and violets all the assumption now the data sets is ready to give better fit to

conduct the multiple regression analysis and It have been done to the given set of data which

the researcher has been collected from (WDI).

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Dependent variable = GDP per Capital (%)

Independent variables = “Inflation rate(%), Unemployment Rate(%) , Debt To

GDP(%),Population Growth(%) ,Gross National Income(Annual Growth %), Foreign Direct

Investment %, Total Export%, Remittance, Gross National Income%.”

5.3.1 Hypothesis Testing

Null hypothesis H0: There is no significant impact and contribution of financial and economic

determinants on GDP Annual Growth.

Alternative hypothesis H1: There is significant impact and contribution of financial and

economic determinants on GDP annual growth.

 The study use the following command to find the result of regression analysis.

And here is the output of regression-

Figure 3 Regression Model

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By running the regression command, the researcher get the values which indicates that the

model is fit. As the following model shows R-squared value is 71.91%, it can be said that say

that 71.91% of the model is explained by the regression model. The coefficient of

determination (R2) of the regression model indicates that approximately 71.91 % of the total

variance of GDP Annual growth is explained by independent variables.

Adjusted R square is the modified version of R-square. And the value of Adjusted R-square

will always be less than or equal to R-square in the regression model. Here Adjusted R-square

is 54.62% which is lower than R-square and by adding a new independent variable to the

Model the r-square may increase. Through the percentage of Adjusted R-square, it can be said

that the independent variables have a significant impact on dependent variable.

 The regression output demonstrates that the regression B0 coefficient value of inflation,

Population growth, and Gross National Income values are .0973, 1.81, and 0.767. It

indicates the positive coefficient relationship between the dependent and independent

variables that for each additional increase the GDP of BD will increase by inflation,

GNI, and Population growth.

 The output demonstrates the negative relationship of the unemployment rate, Debt to

GDP in regression analysis because of holding negative B0 coefficients. The B0

coefficient value of unemployment indicates that 1% increase in the unemployment

rate, will decrease the growth of GDP, holding other variables constant. As well as the

1% increase in Debt of total GDP will decrease the Annual Growth GDP, holding other

variables constant

 The B0 coefficient value of Foreign Direct Investment, Export, and Remittance hold the

positive coefficient that 1% increase of the investment on these respective variables,

will increase the result to 48.3%, 11.4%, 47.3% increase in Annual Growth in GDP,

holding other variables constant.

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 The significant coefficient value of Economic indicators output demonstrates that the

coefficient value of each positive indicator suggests that 1% increase of these variables

will increase the progress of GDP annual growth by output, holding other variables

constant.

 And the independent variables who hold the negative B0 coefficient value, have adverse

relation with GDP annual growth. As a result, 1% decrease in the particular output will

decrease the growth of GDP in Bangladesh.

T-tests have been conducted to give the overview of the study that how the independent

variable explains the variation in the dependent variable by testing the hypothesis that hold

significant slope coefficient

 The t-values for inflation, Unemployment, and Debt to GDP are .90, -1.20, and -3.27,

respectively. And Population Growth, Gross National Income, Foreign Direct

Investment have t-values are 2.11, 1.14, 0.72 consecutively. The rest of the variables,

Export, and Remittance have significant T values which are 0.80 and 2.88.

From the Z table value, the critical value of l two-tailed t-values is ± 2.831.The researcher get

the T-stat intercept from the output which is 2.88 and the Degree of Freedom is 21.As a result,

here t-stat > t-critical 2.88 > 2.831 at 1% significance level. Thus, the researcher can reject the

null hypothesis and the study conclude that the slope is different from zero as well as slope

coefficient is statistically significant .The intercept of t-value is higher than 2.831 (From Z

Table), the critical value of 1% significance level. Hence, it can be concluded that inflation,

Export, Remittance, GNI, FDI, and Population Growth have a significant relationship with at

the growth GDP of Bangladesh 1% level of significance.

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And unemployment rate, Debt to GDP hold negative coefficients as well as Negative T-values

so it can be indicated that these variables gives less impact on the progression of GDP Annual

growth

P Value- In the regression analysis process, it is one of the most common methods of

hypothesis testing that has to be done with regression coefficient whether to test statistical

output is significant or not. As a rule of thumb when the p-value become the smallest level of

significance the study can reject the null hypothesis.

In short,

 If P values >0.05 = the null hypothesis cannot be rejected and the sample data is not

enough or significant and that means the result is not statistically significant.

 P values <0.05(significance level) = the null hypothesis can be rejected. The result is

statistically significant.

Here P value of this model is 0.01.That means 0.01< 0.05.Considering the other aspects, it

shows that the model provides a better fit to give a statistically significant result.

F-test-F-test evaluates the set of independent variables as a group how well they can be

explained the variation of the dependent variable in study.

And the decision rule for the F-test is:

 Reject H0 if F (test-statistic) > Fc (critical value)

Here, the obtained value of F test statistics is 4.16. And from the F table, critical value of Fc

is 2.77. That means 4.16>2.77. Thus the researcher can reject the null hypothesis at a 5%

significance and the rejection of null hypothesis indicated that the regression model carries the

effective independent variables which gives significant contributions by explaining the

dependent variable GDP in economic growth in Bangladesh.

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After all the analysis of regression output, it stated and proved that the independent variables

have a significant impact statistical impact on the dependent variable. The study reject the null

hypothesis thus there is a significant impact of financial and economic determinants to evaluate

the contribution and performance of economic forces in GDP annual growth.

5.3.2 Coefficient and Correlation Output

Next, the researcher conducted correlation analysis to assess the correlation among the

variables and analyze the relationship between independent variables and dependent variables.

The correlation matrix shows that GDP has a positive and significant correlation with the

independent variables. Also, the independent variables have interrelated with each other which

is discussed below briefly.

Figure 4 Coefficient and Correlation Output


GDP Inflation Unemploy Debt to Populatio GNI FDI Export Remit
ment GDP n Growth tance
GDP 1.000

Inflation 0.3254 1.000


0.1395
Unemploy -0.0516 0.0789 1.000
ment 0.8196 0.7271
Debt to -0.5390* 0.2587 -0.4575* 1.000
GDP 0.0096 0.2451 0.0323
Populatio 0.0234 0.3530 0.0537 0.3191 1.00
n Growth 0.1070 0.8123 0.1478
GNI 0.9177 0.3364 0.1640 -0.5080* 0.0606 1.000
0.1259 0.4658 0.0158 0.7889
FDI 0.5525* 0.5701* 0.1473 -0.4926* 0.1584 0.4183 1.000
0.0077 0.0056 0.5129 0.0198 0.4813 0.0527
Export 0.2982 0.5595* -0.2067 -0.2510 0.3326 0.1498 0.7183* 1.00
0.1777 0.0068 0.3560 0.2599 0.1304 0.5057 0.0002

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Remittance 0.1397 0.6507* 0.2092 -0.4182 0.3640 0.2390 0.7107* 0.8100* 1.00
0.5353 0.0010 0.3500 0.0528 0.0958 0.2841 0.0002 0.000

 Inflation Rate-At first there is a significant positive relationship between GDP annual

growth and inflation rate over the years. There are many substantial reasons of positive

inflation rate with GDP in Bangladesh Economic growth sector. Increasing production

as well as increasing profitable firms invest their huge investment for leading the

advancement of Business production and rising prices. Due to increase of higher

production and investment unemployment also decrease. As in Bangladesh the firms

making more money and increasing employment, Government trying to stabilize the

country’s GDP growth by making revenue through a huge portion of the direct tax such

as income tax, and company tax. In short, the demand for goods and services may

increase than supply more rapidly as well as cause prices to rise. And the strong labor

market will encourage firms to increase wages to consume the higher prices and

maximize profits.

 Unemployment Rate- There is negative relationship between GDP and

Unemployment rate at 5% significance level. It means if the Unemployment Rate will

decrease and the GDP per capital growth will increase. Another highlighted point is

there seems positive relationship between the Unemployment rate and the Inflation rate

at 5% significance level. Though the A. W. Phillips theoretically proved that there is an

inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. But Bangladesh has been

faced large fluctuations in inflation rates over the years, which affects the increasing

level of unemployment levels. In short, it can be said that as the inflation rate is higher

the unemployment rate in the country remains higher in the long run relationship. It is

also notable that long-term trends seem quite more accurate than short-term trends

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considering the particular aspects to give a better explanation. Cause inflation rate in

Bangladesh often changes over 21 years. Though the relationship between inflation and

unemployment became complex the higher inflation rate causes the arising

unemployment rate in the model of the study. If the inflation rate is increasing at 1%,

the unemployment will increase 1% at a 5% significance level since the cuts of

expansion of job growth.This also applies to an increase or reduction in unemployment

rates. GDP and unemployment rates are typically correlated because a reduction in GDP

is mirrored by a decline in the employment rate.

 From the table, it is found that the coefficient of Export, population growth, FDI,

Remittance, inflation, GNI growth is significant. The coefficient values of

Unemployment and population growth is significant. Because when the population

growth increases, unemployment must be increased because of investment

opportunities but the outcome does not signify at 5% probability level. The coefficient

of GDP and inflation relates the expected sign and besides foreign direct investment

gives expected result which means increases in FDI will enhance the unemployment

rate. The foreign direct investment is significant at 5% probability level. Besides, level

of significance for FDI supports the long run influence in the unemployment rate of

Bangladesh.

 From the output of the table, the researcher found that coefficient value of Debt to GDP

is statistically significant and negative correlation with the GDP, Inflation rate and

Unemployment rate at 5% significance level.

 The correlation matrix shows that GDP has a positive and significant correlation with

gross national income at 5% significance level. If the GNI (Gross National Income)

is increase arise at 5% significance level as well as the GDP rate will be higher. And if

the GNI will decrease the Government Debt to GDP as well as increase at a significance

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level. From the output table of, it is found that coefficient value of population growth,

inflation, Unemployment is statistically significant with Gross National Income.

 Population growth has the positive significant correlation with GDP,as well as

Inflation, unemployment and Debt to GDP at 5% significance level. The study

emphasizes GDP and population growth has direct relationship to make successful

prospect of development in the Economy. Thus, in Bangladesh as the population growth

is enhancing, the taxes and additional human capital make the economy emerge. As

well as it is notified that increase population growth encourage the GDP annual growth

in Bangladesh.

 The regression of the study have showed that there is direct correlation between FDI

(Foreign Direct Investment) and GDP 5% significance level. FDI (Foreign Direct

Investment) also has a positive and significant correlation with GNI, Population

growth and inflation at 5% significance level. Also the FDI has a significant negative

relationship with the Debt to credit GDP at significance level. As FDI increase the

expansionary investment opportunity and profit/sales, higher FDI increase the Gross

National Income. But if the FDI becomes lower, it will generate the proportion of higher

Government Debt. It has been assumed that foreign direct investment (FDI) is an

important factor of economic growth. It is the most the dynamic element as investment

is of gross domestic product (GDP) and FDI is one of the independent variable which

affect the annual growth of GDP meaningfully in the emerging economic Bangladesh

.The researcher showed the analysis through the output of studies Bangladesh has the

consistency increase Foreign Direct Investment attract the GDP growth rate. The

research study has shown the substantial correlations of FDI with Inflation, Debt to

GDP. By the validation of the relationship between the variables is the main aim of the

research study.

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 Exports is another vital component of contribution of the annual growth in GDP in the

economy. The relationships with GDP gives positive correlation that have shown in

output at 5% significance level. Also there is direct negative correlation between the

Export and Unemployment as well as Debt to GDP at 5% significance level in the

result. In Bangladesh, diversification of RMG sector estimate the strong evidence that

expanding demand in Export and the global trade from Bangladesh in higher terms

reduce the unemployment and government debt. Also the export has the significant

positive relationship with population growth at 5% significance level. Thus adding the

human Capital accumulation by the tradeable sector may reduce unemployment.

 Remittance is one of the most crucial components in contribution of economic growth

in GDP. From the table the study found that Remittance has significant positive impact

on GDP at 5% significance level. The positive relation indicates that increase in

Remittance will increase the output of a country which reflect the annual economic

growth of GDP in Bangladesh. Current debt to GDP has become a matter of concern

as an economic indicator. So arising the remittance in emerging economy, the

government debt becomes lower.

After all the discussion and from the output have identified the most influential as well as

significance indicators are Foreign Direct Investment, exports and Remittance in emerging

economy in Bangladesh. There are similar correlations and positive relationship between

emerging remittance and Foreign Direct Investment, exports, Remittance and inflation. The

robust and highly significant Remittance bring currency into the country, which is increasing

the exporting nation's GDP. At the same time, exports show a significant positive impact in the

absolute term with the lag period in the long-run there is significant relationship between

exports and Remittance in Bangladesh. There are significant relationship in, Debt to GDP,

Remittance, FDI, Export, Gross national Income and foreign direct investment with GDP.

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6.0 Bangladesh Economic Outlook

Bangladesh has achieved a remarkable history of expansion and development track record.

From the study the researcher find output that over the past ten years, Bangladesh became has

obtained the world's fastest economic growth, encouraged along by a demographic dividend,

robust ready-made garment (RMG) exports, remittances, and stable macroeconomic

conditions. And after the COVID-19 outbreak, the country's economy recovered quickly.

Bangladesh's incredible story of progress and poverty eradication is told to the globe.

Bangladesh, which was one of the poorest countries when it was founded in 1971, attained

lower-middle income classification in 2015. It is expected to leave the UN's list of least

developed nations (LDC) in 2026. Based on the international poverty line of $1.90 per day,

poverty decreased from 43.5 percent in 1991 to 14.3 percent in 2016 (utilizing 2011 Buying

Power Equality swapping scale). Besides, there was improvement in numerous areas of human

development.

7.0 Conclusion
Bangladesh's economy has been expanding sustainably since a few years ago, as measured by

GDP growth. "Good governance" is the cause of Bangladesh's GDP growth. Therefore, an

effective government can be extremely important to Bangladesh's economy. The main issue

facing our nation is corruption and political instability. So political instability will reduce once

solid administration is created. The World Bank predicts that Bangladesh would leave the

United Nations' list of least developed nations by 2026 if its current rate of economic growth

is maintained. However, Bangladesh will stop receiving GSP benefits from 37 nations,

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including Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Japan, Canada, and 28 members of the European

Union, after 2026 since it is a developing nation. Bangladesh should indeed continue to

increase exports by establishing a number of international free trade agreements. Lastly,

according to the findings of the research, debt burden has a major negative impact on

Bangladesh's economic growth. Bangladesh's national burden of servicing its external debt

causes a slowdown in GDP. This report suggested that Bangladesh explore at debt reduction

options, boost infrastructural development, and advance human development.

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