Term Paper on “Uganda's Economic Landscape: An Analysis of Growth,

Challenges, and Prospects over the Last Decade (2013-2023)”

Course: Introduction to economics
Course Code: PCH 1207

Submitted To
Nipun Naureen
Lecturer
Department of Economics
Faculty of Arts and Social Science
Bangladesh University of Professionals

Submitted By
Maisha Mumtaz
ID: 23444102016
Jannatun Naeem Jhumu
ID: 23444102041
Sanzida Easmin
ID: 23444102042
Rifat Tamanna Jui
ID: 23444102049
Nafrin Nahar Niha
ID: 23444102050
Most. Towhida Akter
ID: 23444102073
Department of Peace, Conflict and Human Rights
Submission Date: 02.06.2024

1
 Table of Contents

1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….3
2. Key Economic Sectors…………………………………………………………………3
3. GDP Growth and Trends……………………………………………………………….6
4. Inflation………………………………………………………………………………...10
5. Foreign Investment and Debt…………………………………………………………..14
6. Government Policy on Vision 2040 for the Economic Development of Uganda………15
7. Result and Findings…………………………………………………………………......19
8. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………........20
9. Reference……………………………………………………………………………......21

2
1. Introduction:

Uganda, a landlocked country in East Africa, has experienced significant economic changes over
the past decade. Uganda gained independence from British colonial rule in 1962. Post-
independence, the country experienced political instability and economic turmoil, particularly
during the regimes of Idi Amin and Milton Obote. Since the late 1980s, under the leadership of
President Yoweri Museveni, Uganda has made significant strides in stabilizing the economy,
although challenges remain. The economy is predominantly agrarian, with agriculture employing
most of the workforce, although there has been a gradual shift towards services and industry in
recent years.

This term paper examines the economic conditions in Uganda from 2013 to 2023, analyzing key
aspects such as GDP growth, inflation rates, employment, major sectors contributing to the
economy, foreign direct investment and debts, and government policies. By understanding these
elements, we can gain a comprehensive view of Uganda's economic landscape and its
development trajectory.

2. Key Economic Sectors:

a) Agriculture:
Agriculture remains the backbone of Uganda's economy, employing about 70% of the
workforce. Key crops include coffee, tea, cotton, tobacco, and maize. Uganda's
agriculture has seen mixed progress in the past decade. While the sector's contribution to
the overall economy has shrunk, agricultural output has grown, particularly for
commercial crops. This growth has not kept pace with other sectors though, and
subsistence crops, vital for food security, have not seen the same improvement. The
agricultural sector is crucial for food security and export revenues, but it faces challenges
such as low productivity, limited access to modern technology, and vulnerability to
climate change. Challenges like low use of modern techniques and resource degradation
persist. According to the report of September 20, 2016, Uganda has made big strides in
reducing poverty and developing their economy as well as livelihood and much of its

3
 progress has been due to agricultural income growth, education, urbanization, as well as
sustained economic growth averaging 7% annually. (Bank, 2016)
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that Uganda's abundant agricultural
area could feed 200 million people. Among the overall land of Uganda, 80% of the land
is arable, yet only 35% is cultivated. Agriculture contributed around 24% of GDP and
35% of export revenues in fiscal year 2022/23. The UBOS estimates that agriculture
employs around 68% of Uganda's working population. (USA, 2023)
The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), an African Union
implementing agency, coordinates CAADP. CAADP strives to enhance agricultural
performance by improving policy and institutional frameworks, providing access to new
technologies and information, and boosting investment finance. African nations pledged
to invest 10% of their annual budgets in agriculture in all over Africa including Uganda
through CAADP, with the goal of increasing production and maintaining it. (Radeny
Maren A.O., 2022) Uganda’s agriculture sector changed majorly through a decade and
developed county’s economy. One significant shift has been the emphasis on value chain
development. Projects like the Agricultural Value Chain Development Program (AVCP)
aimed to enhance household incomes by focusing on infrastructure development
(irrigation), strengthening specific product value chains, and promoting exports. (Fund,
2016) In addition, technological advancements and societal concerns played a great role.

b) Social Services:
The social service sector in Uganda plays a vital role in the well-being of its citizens and
it is encompassed with education, healthcare and social protection programs.

 Education: Uganda has witnessed a rise in net enrollment rates at the primary level and
the government's Universal Primary Education (UPE) program has increased access to
education, particularly for females. Despite increased access to education since 1996,
much of Uganda’s poverty reduction from 2013 was predominantly built on agricultural
income growth that particularly benefitted poor households with low levels of education
(UBOS, 2016, World Bank, 2016). Even though the country has experienced a significant

4
 increase in school enrollment rates, at the same time it also displays one of the highest
school dropout rates worldwide at P (primary) level. Estimates range from 75.2% 4 to
67.9% of pupils who drop out between P (Primary) 1 – P7. According to the latest data
from the UBOS up to 90.2% of children enrolled in primary education, do not complete
school. The government has increased classroom capacity, supplied educational
resources, and hired and deployed additional instructors. Indeed, the Government of
Uganda has made significant investments to ensure equitable access to affordable
education for all Ugandans. As a result, of the 2019 Human Rights Measurement
Initiative, Uganda received a score of 92.3% for high primary school enrollment.
(Uganda, 2019)

 Healthcare: Uganda's healthcare system faced significant challenges throughout the

decade. The simulation raises the health sector's portion of the government budget while
taxes remain constant and government spending is fixed in real terms. The immediate
result of this government action is a reduction in resources available for other
government operations. To attain the 15% government health budget share, the
government demand scaling factor for health is increased by 10% for government
primary healthcare and 5% for government other-healthcare each year. Because the
government health demand scaling factor is exogenous and the government health
(functional) share is endogenously determined, the model calculates the annual growth
rate in government healthcare spending required to attain the desired 15% health budget
share by 2020. (Judith et al., 2017)

 Employment: Uganda's employment situation over the decade, faced challenges despite
efforts towards improvement. While regional integration initiatives like COMESA and
AfCFTA aimed to expand opportunities, job creation remained a concern. Youth in
Uganda are facing challenges in terms of unemployment, underemployment and
undignified work resulting from demand- and supply-side causes and ineffective
employment policies, initiatives, and programs. According to the 2019/2020 Uganda
National Household Survey, prior to COVID-19, the national unemployment rate was
9.2%, with 13% among youth aged 18-30. The COVID-19 outbreak exacerbated the

5
 unemployment crisis. According to Sekabira 2017, female young experience a 10%
greater unemployment rate than male youth. According to UBOS's 2019 youth
employment statistics, self-employment accounted for 43% of active employment. 39%
of the youth were male and 31% were female. (Bbaale et al., 2023)

c) Industry:
Uganda’s industrial sector saw a mixed performance over the decade. While Uganda's
industrial sector has shown some progress, it has not kept pace with agriculture or
services.
 Iron and Steel Industry: Uganda aspires to become an upper middle-income
country by 2040 and the national planning frameworks (National Planning
Authority, 2013, 2010, and 2015) have earmarked the development of the
country’s iron and steel industry, based on its existing iron ore deposits, among
the key interventions to be used to achieve the desired vision. (Abraham J. B.
Muwanguzi et al., 2020) Uganda’s importation of iron and steel products
increased from USD 162 million in 2010 to USD 279 million in 2015 and
currently stands at USD 369 million (Centre, 2019)

 Power and Energy Industry: Before the reform process began in 1999, the
mismanagement and under-performance of Uganda's Electricity Board had
created a sector that was underfinanced. In 2016, Uganda's energy sector seemed
to have moved beyond the most demanding phase of its transition and be
sufficiently prepared for future challenges. (Rene et al., 2018)

3. GDP Growth and Trends:

Analysis of GDP data from the past 10 years of Uganda

6
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as a comprehensive measure of a country’s overall
economic activity, encompassing the total value of goods and services produced within its
borders. By examining GDP growth rates and underlying factors, we can gain insights into the
effectiveness of economic policies, the resilience of various sectors, and the impacts of external
shocks such as global commodity price fluctuations and the COVID-19 pandemic. Uganda’s
GDP growth rate has experienced fluctuations over the years, with varying levels of growth and
decline. By analyzing the GDP growth rate from the past 10 years we can get an insight about the
economic conditions of Uganda. Here are the statistics of Uganda’s GDP growth rate from 2013
to 2024:

Annual GDP Growth Rate

GDP Growth Rate of Uganda –

Year GDP Growth (%) Annual Change

2013 3.59% -0.25%
2014 5.11% 1.52%
2015 5.19% 0.08%
2016 4.78% -0.41%
2017 3.13% -1.65%
2018 6.30% 3.17%
2019 6.44% 0.13%
2020 2.95% -3.49%
2021 3.54% 0.59%
2022 4.59% 1.05%
)Source: macrotrends(

These statistics indicate that Uganda’s GDP growth rate has fluctuated over the years, with
periods of strong growth followed by slowdowns but it has been generally positive. From 2013
to 2015, the country experienced relatively stable growth, with rates ranging from 3.6% to 5.2%.
However, growth slowed in 2016 and 2017 before rebounding in 2018. In 2019, Uganda’s GDP
growth rate reached 6.44 % which was the highest point in the 2013-2024 period. This was

7
followed by a sharp decline to 2.95% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Growth has since
been on an upward trajectory, reaching 3.54% in 2021 and 4.59% in 2022. The most recent data
from the fourth quarter of 2023 shows a GDP growth rate of 5.50%.(TRADING ECONOMICS,
2014). From the data, GDP is projected to grow 6.5% in 2023 and 6.7% in 2024. (African
Development Bank Group)

Analysis of Uganda’s GDP growth rate from 2013 to 2024

There were both slowdown and increase in the GDP growth rate of Uganda in the past 10 years.
Here is a year-by-year analysis of it –

(Source: macrotrends)

From 2013 to 2022, Uganda's GDP growth experienced various fluctuations. In 2013, the growth
rate was 3.6%, driven by favorable weather boosting agricultural output, expansion in the service
sector, and increased foreign direct investment, which improved living standards and
employment opportunities despite persistent poverty and inequality (World Bank Group, 2013).

8
The growth rate accelerated to 5.11% in 2014 due to infrastructure investment and rising oil
production (Economic and Market Analysis, 2014). In 2015, the GDP grew slightly higher at
5.2%, supported by strong performances in agriculture and services and increased government
spending on infrastructure (World Bank, 2015). However, in 2016, growth slowed to 4.78% due
to droughts, political uncertainty, and lower global commodity prices, impacting exports despite
continued growth in agriculture and services (World Bank, 2017). The trend continued in 2017,
with a further decline to 3.13%, affected by a slowdown in agriculture and rising inflation
(World Bank, 2017). In 2018, the growth rate rebounded to 6.3%, driven by improved
agricultural production and growth in the services sector (World Bank, 2018). This upward trend
continued in 2019, with the growth rate reaching 6.44%, the highest in the period, due to strong
performances in services and agriculture and increased infrastructure investment, creating a
stable macroeconomic environment (World Bank, 2019). The COVID-19 pandemic caused a
significant slowdown in 2020, with the growth rate plummeting to 2.95%, impacting tourism,
trade, and services, and disrupting trade and reducing domestic consumption and investment
(World Bank, 2020). In 2021, the growth rate rebounded to 3.54%, driven by agriculture, but
remained below pre-pandemic levels, indicating a slow recovery (World Bank Group, 2021).
The growth rate accelerated again in 2022 to 4.59%, driven by strong performances in
agriculture and services and increased investment in the oil sector, suggesting a gradual
economic recovery (African Development Bank Group).

Analysis of overall GDP data

Uganda’s nominal GDP was estimated at USD 32.94 billion in 2018 and reached USD 45.57
billion in 2022. (The World Bank in Uganda, n.d.). This growth in nominal GDP reflects the
overall expansion of the economy and the increasing value of goods and services produced
within the country. In terms of real GDP, Uganda’s economy grew at an average annual rate of
4.4% over the last decade. (Uganda Archives, n.d.)

Overall, Uganda’s GDP growth rate has experienced fluctuations over the years, with periods of
strong growth followed by slowdowns. The economy has shown resilience in recovering from
shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, but sustaining high growth rates remains a challenge.

9
However, in recent years, Uganda’s economy has shown signs of recovery, with growth
accelerating to 5.3% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024. (World Bank Open Data, n.d.)

10
4. Inflation

The recent surge in inflation in Uganda has been driven by several factors:

i. Spillover effects of the global economic decline: The crystal global economic crisis has
affected Uganda in one way or the other particularly in its export and import business,
hence the high inflation rates (Twimukye et al., 2010).

ii. Tightening of global financial conditions leading to a depreciating Ugandan shilling:

A result of high global interest rate the Ugandan shilling has been weakened hence
making imports costly hence increasing inflation (Twimukye et al., 2010).

iii. The Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupting supply chains: This has resulted in the
contraction of the supply chain, shortages, and increased prices of goods, which has
compounded inflation in Uganda (Abima & Deogratius, 2022).

iv. Extended drought affecting food production: Lack of rainfall in Uganda has also
affected crop cultivation, and since there is less food available, there’s increased cost,
which has contributed to the inflationary pressure (Abima & Deogratius, 2022).

v. Elevated global commodity prices, especially crude oil: The global hike in the prices
of basic commodities inclusive of the crude oil prices has also led the cost of production
as well as transport prices to rise consequently passing the costs to the Ugandan buyers.

These factors have, in total resulted into the recent hike in inflation in Uganda and the country is
for the first time felt the taste of double figures in inflation after a decade.

11
Inflation Rate (2013-2023)

Uganda's inflation rate has ranged from a low of 2.2% in 2021 to a high of 10% in September
2022. After a period of relative stability from 2013-2017 with rates between 4-6%, inflation
dipped below 3% from 2018-2021. However, it then spiked to 7.2% in 2022 and reached double
digits in September 2022 for the first time in a decade. (Trading Economics, 2024)

The annual inflation rate in Uganda eased for the second month to 3.2% in April 2024, down
marginally from 3.3% in the previous month. Prices slowed mostly for insurance and financial
services (4.6% vs 9% in March) and personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods
(5.3% vs 5.9%). Additionally, prices fell further for food & non-alcoholic beverages (-0.8% vs -
0.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.4% in April, after a 0.5% increase in the
prior month. source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Trading Economics, 2024)

Fig 1: Inflation Rate (Trading Economics, 2024)

12
 Fig 2: The Consumer Price Index (Trading Economics, 2024)

In Uganda, the main components of the Consumer Price Index are: Food and Non-Alcoholic
Beverages (27%), Transport (10%), and Housing (10%). Restaurants & Hotels accounts for 9%,
Clothing & Footwear for 7% and Education for 6%. The index also includes: Miscellaneous
Goods & Services (5%), Recreation & Culture (5%), Furniture & Household Goods (5%),
Communication (4%), Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics (4%), and Medical Care
(2%). (Trading Economics, 2024)

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the
cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or
changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used.
(Macrotrends, 2024)

 Uganda inflation rate for 2022 was 7.20%, a 4.99% increase from 2021.
 Uganda inflation rate for 2021 was 2.20%, a 1.11% decline from 2020.
 Uganda inflation rate for 2020 was 3.31%, a 0.45% increase from 2019.
 Uganda inflation rate for 2019 was 2.87%, a 0.25% increase from 2018.

13
Fig 4: Inflation Rate (2013-2022) (Macrotrends, 2024)

14
5. Foreign Investment and Debt Condition
Over the past decade, Uganda has seen a mix of foreign investment and debt accumulation:

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

FDI has remained quite active in Uganda, the nation has been quite responsive to foreign direct
investment (GOV.UK, 2024). Some of the focus sectors that have been targeted by FDI include;
Infrastructural development, oil and gas sector, agricultural industries, and manufacturing
industries. The following factors, on the other hand, constitute some of the hurdles that still exist
in increasing the FDI level: The interest rates are high, the energy cost is high, and the
infrastructure facilities like road, water and power is in short supply (GOV.UK, 2024).

Debt Situation
Uganda's public debt has risen sharply in recent years, reaching 52% of GDP in 2021. The
country's fiscal deficit remains high at 7.3% of GDP, much higher than the medium-term target
of 3%. Debt service costs have also increased, consuming 27.7% of domestic revenue in
FY2020/21 (Minister of Finance & Planning and Economic Development, 2021)

Despite this, Uganda's debt is still considered sustainable in the medium to long term, with a
moderate risk of debt distress according to the IMF (Minister of Finance & Planning and
Economic Development, 2021) (Minister of Finance & Planning and Economic Development,
Debt Sustainability Analysis Report FY2021/22, 2022). The government has taken measures to
address debt vulnerabilities, such as reducing domestic borrowing to no more than 1% of GDP
per annum and pursuing concessional external loans where possible (Minister of Finance &
Planning and Economic Development, Debt Sustainability Analysis Report FY2021/22, 2022).

Debt Composition

15
Uganda's debt portfolio consists of both external and domestic debt (Minister of Finance &
Planning and Economic Development, Debt Sustainability Analysis Report FY2020/21, 2021)
(Minister of Finance & Planning and Economic Development, Debt Sustainability Analysis
Report FY2021/22, 2022). As of June 2022:

- External debt accounted for 61.1% of total debt, down from 63.4% in June 2021.
- Commercial banks held the largest share of domestic debt at 40.1%, followed by pension funds
at 29.8%.
- Offshore investors held 11.2% of domestic debt, a vote of confidence in Uganda's economic
management.

The average time to maturity (ATM) of Uganda's debt portfolio declined from 9.6% in June 2021
to 9.0% in June 2022, indicating increased exposure to refinancing risks. The share of fixed-rate
debt also decreased from 92.6% in June 2021 to 90.1% in June 2022, raising the government's
exposure to interest rate risks. (Minister of Finance & Planning and Economic Development,
Debt Sustainability Analysis Report FY2021/22, 2022)

While Uganda has been open to foreign investment, its debt levels have risen significantly in
recent years, with a mix of external and domestic borrowing. The government is working to
manage debt vulnerabilities and maintain debt sustainability, but challenges remain in attracting
higher levels of FDI and reducing debt service costs.

6. Government Policy on Vision 2040 for the Economic Development of

Uganda:

Vision 2040 is Uganda's long-term development strategy aimed at transforming the country into
a competitive upper-middle-income nation. It was launched in 2013 and outlines a strategic
framework for the country's socio-economic transformation over a period of 30 years.

Uganda Agriculture Sector Strategic Plan (ASSP)

16
The Agriculture Sector Strategic Plan (ASSP) was developed following a 2015 review of the
Agriculture Sector Development Strategy and Investment Plan (DSIP), which served as Uganda's
first-generation National Agriculture Investment Plan (NAIP) from 2010/11 to 2014/15.

The National Agriculture Policy (NAP) of Uganda outlines six strategic objectives:

 Ensure household and national food and nutrition security for all Ugandans.
 Increase incomes of farming households from crops, livestock, fisheries, and other
agricultural-related activities.
 Promote specialization in strategic, profitable, and viable enterprises and value addition
through agro-zoning.
 Promote domestic, regional, and international trade in agricultural products.
 Ensure sustainable use and management of agricultural resources.
 Develop human resources for agricultural development.
 Despite efforts to align the long-term National Vision 2040, the medium-term National
Development Plan II (2015/16 – 2019/20), and the NAP with the ASSP, some gaps are
evident.

The ASSP identifies four priority areas:

 Increasing agricultural production and productivity.

 Increasing access to critical farm inputs.
 Improving access to agricultural markets and value addition.
 Strengthening institutional and enabling environments.

Additionally, the ASSP highlights twelve priority commodities based on their contribution to
household income and food security. These commodities include bananas, beans, maize, rice,
cassava, Irish potatoes, tea, coffee, fruits and vegetables, dairy, fish, and livestock (meat).

17
Furthermore, four strategic (export) commodities are identified: cocoa, cotton, oil
seeds, and oil palm. (Nic Olivier, 2019)

Higher Education's Contribution to Uganda Vision 2040

The role of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) has evolved significantly in the context of the
knowledge economy, which emphasizes the creation, application, and dissemination of
knowledge beyond traditional academic boundaries (Lebeau & Cochrane, 2015). HEIs are now
seen as critical players in regional development through their engagement with businesses,
governments, and other societal actors. This expanded role aligns with the goals of Uganda
Vision 2040, which seeks to transform the country into a modern and prosperous nation.

Fostering Entrepreneurship:

 Higher education institutions support entrepreneurial activities, encouraging the

establishment of new businesses and driving economic development.

Innovation and Knowledge Transfer:

 Universities attract and integrate new knowledge, enhancing regional innovation and
economic competitiveness.

Self-Employment and Job Creation:

 Graduates of higher education are more likely to engage in self-employment, contributing

to job creation and economic diversity.

Higher Education Institutions in Uganda play a multifaceted role in achieving the objectives of
Vision 2040. By fostering innovation, enhancing human capital, promoting social cohesion, and
driving economic growth, HEIs are integral to the country's development. Their ability to engage

18
with various stakeholders and adapt to local needs positions them as pivotal agents of change in
Uganda's journey towards prosperity and modernity. (Mugizi, 2018)

Industrial sector

Uganda's Vision 2040 is a comprehensive development plan aimed at transforming the country
into a modern and prosperous society within 30 years. Central to this vision is the goal of
transitioning from a predominantly agrarian economy to one driven by industrialization.
Industrialization is identified as a key opportunity to propel Uganda towards achieving its socio-
economic transformation. The benefits of industrialization outlined in Vision 2040 are numerous
and significant. Firstly, it creates employment opportunities, addressing one of the most pressing
challenges faced by Uganda. Additionally, it fosters technological advancement, which is crucial
for staying competitive in the global market. A strong industrial base also contributes to
economic resilience, providing stability in the face of external shocks. (Abraham J. B.
Muwanguzi, 2018) Here are the key aspects of the government's policy on the industrial sector
under Vision 2040:

 Industrialization and Structural Transformation

Objective: To enhance the contribution of the industrial sector to GDP and employment.

Strategies:

 Value Addition: Promote value addition to Uganda’s abundant raw materials, such as
agricultural produce, minerals, and oil and gas.
 Industrial Clusters: Establish industrial clusters and zones to create synergies and
enhance productivity.

19
  SMEs Support: Support Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to transition into larger
enterprises through access to finance, technology, and markets.

 Technology and Innovation

Objective: To promote technological advancement and innovation in the industrial sector.

Strategies:

 Research and Development (R&D): Increase investment in R&D to foster innovation

and improve industrial processes.
 Technology Transfer: Facilitate the transfer of modern technologies from developed
countries to enhance local production capabilities.
 Intellectual Property Rights: Strengthen intellectual property rights to encourage local
innovations and attract foreign investments.

 Sustainable Industrial Development

Objective: To ensure environmentally sustainable industrial growth.
Strategies:
 Environmental Regulations: Implement and enforce environmental regulations to
minimize industrial pollution and degradation.
 Green Technologies: Promote the adoption of green technologies and sustainable
practices in the industrial sector.
 Climate Resilience: Develop industries that are resilient to climate change impacts.

20
7. Results and Findings:
 Agriculture's Role and Challenges: Agriculture is vital to Uganda’s economy, employing
many and generating exports. It faces low productivity, limited technology, and climate
vulnerability, with programs like AVCP addressing these issues.

 Social Services: Uganda is improving education and healthcare access, but struggles with
high dropout rates and youth unemployment. Investments are made in classrooms,
resources, and healthcare budgets despite funding and staffing challenges.

 Industrial Sector and Growth: Uganda's industrial sector progresses moderately, with key
areas in iron, steel, and energy. Economic growth fluctuated over the past decade,
rebounding post-COVID to 5.50% in 2022.

 Economic Challenges and Policies: Inflation is influenced by global factors, with the
Bank of Uganda raising rates to stabilize the economy. Vision 2040 and ASSP focus on
transforming Uganda into a competitive, industrialized, upper-middle-income nation.

8. Conclusion

Over the past ten years, Uganda's economic performance has been characterized by both success
and setbacks. The nation has grown steadily, despite ongoing problems with debt and poverty.
Recent events, like the discovery of oil, present chances for additional economic growth. Uganda

21
will need to take advantage of new opportunities and address current issues in order to achieve
equitable and sustainable economic growth in the future.

References
Abima, & Deogratius. (2022, April). Inflation and economic growth in Uganda. Retrieved from
Makerere University Institutional Repository: http://hdl.handle.net/10570/10189
Abraham J. B. Muwanguzi, P. O. (2018, March). Industrialisation as a Vehicle for Uganda to
Achieve a 1st World Economy by 2040: A Review of Uganda’s Industrialisation Efforts.
American Journal of Industrial and Business Managemen, 8(3).
https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2018.83033
Abraham J. B. Muwanguzi, P. O., Hennery, S., Asuman, G., Damir, M., Paolo, B., & Joseph, M.
(2020). Modelling the Growth Trend of the Iron and Steel Industry: Case for Uganda .
American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 10(9).
https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2020.109104
African Development Bank Group. (2023). Uganda Economic Outlook. Retrieved from African
Development Bank Group: https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/east-africa/uganda/uganda-
economic-outlook#:~:text=Uganda%20Economic%20Outlook-,Uganda%20Economic
%20Outlook,-Recent%20macroeconomic%20and
Bank, T. W. (2016, September). Agriculture: A Driver of Growth and Poverty Reduction.
Retrieved from Uganda Poverty Assessment, 2016:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/uganda/publication/uganda-poverty-assessment-
agriculture-a-driver-of-growth-and-poverty-reduction
Bbaale, E., Peter, B., Susan, K., Brenda, K., Aniitah, K., Hennery, S., . . . Ramos, M. (2023).
What works for Youth Employment in Africa: A review of youth employment policies
and their impact in Uganda. Partnership for Economic Policy.
Centre, I. T. (2019). Annual Report, 2019. Trade Impact for Good.

22
Fund, A. D. (2016). The Gambia Agriculture Value Chains Development Project Appraisal
Report. Oscan Department.
GOV.UK. (2024, January 2). Overseas business risk: Uganda. Retrieved from GOV.UK:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/overseas-business-risk-uganda/overseas-
business-risk-uganda
Judith, K. M., Keogh Brown, R. D., & Smith. (2017). The welfare implications of public
healthcare financing: a macro–micro simulation analysis of Uganda . Health Policy and
Planning, 32(10), 1437-1448. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/heapol/czx125
Macrotrends. (2024, May 31). Uganda Inflation Rate 1960-2024. Retrieved from Macrotrends:
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/UGA/uganda/inflation-rate-cpi
Minister of Finance, & Planning and Economic Development. (2022). Debt Sustainability
Analysis Report FY2021/22. Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.
Minister of Finance, & Planning and Economic Development. (2021). Debt Sustainability
Analysis Report FY2020/21. Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.
Mugizi, W. (2018, February 16). The Role of Higher Education in Achieving Uganda Vision
2040. Elixir International Journal.
Nic Olivier, E. M. (2019, March 12). A Review of the Alignment of the Republic of Uganda's
Draft Agriculture Sector Strategic Plan with the Malabo Commitments with Regard to
Food Security and Nutrition. AgEcon SEARCH. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.303585
Radeny Maren A.O., A. D. (2022, 06 06). Review of Policies and Frameworks on Climate
Change, Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security in Eastern Africa: Ethiopia, Kenya,
Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. Africa: CGIR.
Rene, M., Anthon, E., & Katharine, G. (2018). Uganda's power sector reform: There and back
again? Energy for Sustainable Development, 75-89.
https://doi.org/https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/files/ugandaspowersectorreform.pdf
The World Bank. (2013, August 13). Transforming Uganda’s Economy for more and better jobs.
Retrieved from The World Bank:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/08/13/transforming-ugandas-
economy-for-more-and-better-jobs
The World Bank. (2021, June 8). Uganda’s Economy Recovering from COVID-19 Impact Amid
Uncertainties. Retrieved from The World Bank:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/06/08/uganda-economy-
recovering-from-covid-19-impact-amid-uncertainties
The World Bank. (2024, April 3). The World Bank in Uganda. Retrieved from The World Bank:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/uganda/overview

23
Trading Economics. (2024). Uganda Inflation Rate. Retrieved from Trading Economics:
https://tradingeconomics.com/uganda/inflation-cpi
Twimukye , E., Matovu , J. M., Levine , S., & Birungi , P. (2010). Sectoral and Welface Effects
of The Global Economic Crisis on Uganda: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis .
Economic Policy Research Centre.
Uganda, T. R. (2019). Education statistical abstract 2019: Findings from the annual school
census 2019. Retrieved from Ministry of Education and Sports:
https://www.education.go.ug/
USA, T. G. (2023, 10 13). Uganda - Country Commercial Guide. Retrieved from International
Trade Administration: https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/uganda-
agricultural-sector
Yiheyis, Z., & Musila , J. (2018). The dynamics of inflation, exchange rates and the trade balance
in a small economy: The case of Uganda. International Journal of Development Issues,
17(2), 246-264. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-12-2017-0209

24