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VIETNAM BANKING

REPORT 2024
Empowering Sustainability

Issue 9
Date of report
Part of FiinGroup‘s Market Research Report Series
Vietnam FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
Head Office Ho Chi Minh City Branch
10th Floor, Peakview Tower Level 16, Bitexco Financial Tower,
36 Hoang Cau Street, Dong Da District 2 Hai Trieu Street, Ben Nghe Ward
Hanoi, Vietnam District 1, Ho Chi Minh City,
Vietnam
Telephone: +84 (24) 3562 6962
www.fiingroup.vn Telephone:+ 84 (28) 3933 3586

Date: 31 May, 2024

Dear Our Valued Clients,

Re: The publication of Vietnam Banking Report 2024

FiinGroup, the market research and consulting division of FiinGroup, is pleased to We understand that this is a targeted but also an open study. We would be happy to
present our Vietnam Banking Report 2024. This publication marks the eighth provide further information to address any questions that you may have on the report.
consecutive year of our annual endeavor to provide the most exhaustive and
insightful analysis of the banking sector in Vietnam. Should you have any questions, please contact me or our lead analyst of banking sector,
Ms. Oanh Tran at +84 (24) 3562 6962 (ext. 105) or her email: oanh.trankieu@fiingroup.vn.
Within this report, we have updated the performance of the Vietnam banking
sector, focusing keenly on pivotal indicators such as credit growth, liquidity, asset Yours sincerely,
quality, earnings quality, and operational efficiency. Additionally, our
comprehensive analysis encompasses an exploration of key development trends and
the prevailing regulatory framework shaping the sector's landscape.

Our research methodology, underpinned by extensive industry expertise and a


robust business network, entailed engaging in various discussions with key
stakeholders. Through these interactions, we have diligently captured nuanced Khieu Duy Hai
sector insights, market dynamics, and performance metrics, thereby enriching the Director, Head of Market Research & Consulting
depth and relevance of our report. FiinGroup

FiinGroup remains committed to delivering value to our clients and stakeholders,


empowering them with the knowledge and foresight essential for informed
decision-making in the dynamic landscape of the Vietnam banking sector.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating


Abbreviation
NO. ABBREVIATION STAND FOR NO. ABBREVIATION STAND FOR

1 1Q 1 Quarter 30 ML Machine learning


2 2H Second half 31 MLT Medium to Long-term
3 2M 2 months 32 mn million
4 9M 9 months 33 P2P Peer-to-Peer
5 AI Artificial Intelligence 34 PMI Purchasing Managers' Index
6 AMC Asset Management Company 35 Pros Prospects
7 API Application Programming Interface 36 Q1 First quarter
8 ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations 37 Q2 Second quarter
9 CAGR Compounded Annual Growth rate 38 Q3 Third Quarter
10 C-bonds Corporate bonds
39 Q4 Fourth quarter
11 CDs Certificates of deposits
40 QoQ Quarter over Quarter
12 CF Consumer Finance
41 RPA Robotic Processing Automation
13 Cir Circular
42 SBV State Bank of Vietnam
14 Cis Credit institutions
43 SMBC Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
15 COF Cost of fund
44 SME Small and Medium Enterprise
16 Cons Consequences
45 SOCB State-Owned Commercial Bank
17 CPI Consumer Price Index
46 ST Short-term
18 CRW Credit risk weighting
47 TOI Total Operating Income
19 eKYC Electronic Know Your Customer
48 TPP Third Party Provider
20 ERP Enterprise resource planning
21 FinCos Finance Companies 49 trn trillion
22 Fis Financial institutions 50 US The United States of America
23 FY Fiscal Year 51 VAMC Vietnam Asset Management Company
24 Gen AI Generative AI 52 VBMA Vietnam Bond Market Association
25 GSO General Statistics Office 53 VND Viet Nam Dong
26 IoT Internet of Things 54 y year
27 JCB Joint Stock Commercial Bank 55 YOAL Yield on Average Loans
28 KYC Know Your Customer 56 YoY Year over Year
29 M&A Mergers & Acquisitions 57 YTD Year To Date

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 3


BANKING REPORT 2024 - RATIO APPENDIX

No. Ratio Description Formula

1 CAR Capital Adequacy Ratio (Tier 1 Capital + Tier 2 Capital)/Risk Weighted Assets

Current Account Savings Account Deposit


2 CASA Deposit Ratio CASA Deposits/Total Deposits
Ratio

3 Loan group 2 Ratio Loan group 2 ratio Loan group 2/Total outstanding loans

4 LDR Loan to Deposit Total Outstanding Loans/Total Deposits

5 LLCR Loan Loss Coverage Ratio Loan Loss Reserve/Non-Performing Loans

(Interest Income - Interest Expense)/Weighted Average Interest


6 NIM Net Interest Margin
Earning Assets

7 NII Net Interest Income Interest received – Interest paid

8 NPL Non-performing loans ratio (Loan group 3+ Loan group 4+ Loan group 5) / Total outstanding loans

9 ROA Return on Asset Net Income After Taxes/Weighted Average Total Assets

10 ROE Return on Equity Net Income After Taxes/Weighted Average Total Equity

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 4


TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART CONTENT PAGE PART CONTENT PAGE

What's new in this report 6


5 Earnings quality 30
Banking sector review and competitive landscape
I. 8
among commercial banks
1 Credit growth quality 9 5.1 Total operating income structure 31

1.1 Credit outstanding and growth 9


5.2. Credit income performance among banks 33
1.2 Credit growth performance by segments 11

1.3 Individual banks’ performance 15 34


5.3. Non-credit income performance
2 Deposit growth 16
6 Operational efficiency 35
2.1 Deposit outstanding and growth 17

2.2. Deposit growth performance by segment 18


7 Profitability 37
2.3 Individual banks’ performance 19

3 Asset quality 21 8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

3.1 Systemwide asset quality 22


II. Key market and development trends 42
3.2 Individual bank performance 23

4 Liquidity 27 III Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates 57

4.1 Systemwide liquidity 28


IV Macroeconomic updates 63
4.2 Individual banks’ performance 29

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 5


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Vietnam’s banking sector has stepped on the rocky recovery By the end of 2023, total customer deposits surged to over 4) Banks experienced an increase in non-performing
road with new challenges stemming from external turmoil VND 13.5 quadrillion, marking a notable 13.2% YoY loans surpassing their provisions for potential losses,
and internal corrections. increase and establishing a historic pinnacle for the resulting in a decline in the industry's reserve cushion
1) Credit growth continued to slow down throughout 2023 banking sector. Bad debt coverage ratios of listed banks
due to the economy’s weak capacity to absorb capital This surge occurred despite deposit interest rates hitting
record lows in the 2H2023
YTD credit growth
3) NPL formation rates remained very high, signaling
16% 2023 2022 2021 2024 the further deterioration of banks’ asset quality
13% NPL ratios of credit institutions
Mar-2020, Oct- 2022, Apr-2023,
10% Cir 01 was SCB was put Cir 02 was
May-2021,
issued on special issued
Cir 03 was
7% control
issued
4%

1%

-2% Loan loss reserve/NPLs


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Loan loss reserve/Overdue debts
Vietnam saw a notable downturn in credit growth driven by
a deceleration in labor-intensive sectors, especially those 5) Banks assure prudential ratios, but capital
tied to export-oriented manufacturing. Credit expansion mobilization remains under pressure
was persistently sluggish throughout 11 months of 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 7M2023 2023 Money supply growth, customer deposit growth and credit growth
before witnessing a sudden surge, mainly from the real
On-balance sheet NPL ratio
estate and construction sectors. 16%
2) Wholesale deposits plunged as enterprises struggled Gross NPL ratio (on-balance sheet NPLs, VAMC & potential bad debts)
with high lending rates amidst economic slowdown The gross NPL ratio rose to 6.16% in July 2023, and it 12%
30% YoY growth of wholesale deposits continued to climb to 7.91% by the end of the year. This
8%
YoY growth of retail deposits deterioration was primarily driven by:
20% YoY growth of total deposit ➢ Unfavorable economic conditions adversely affecting 4%
business activities such as operations and import-
10% export, thus impairing the ability to fulfill debt 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
obligations.
0% ➢ Difficulties in selling mortgaged assets to settle Credit YoY growth
debts. Banks are facing challenges in selling
-10% collateral to recover debt, even though prices are Customer deposit YoY growth
significantly lower than the value of the loan. Banks Money supply (M2) YoY growth
are rushing to auction debt and sell secured assets.
Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
6) Despite reductions in mobilization costs and interest 8) Despite concerted efforts to prioritize cost management 11) Policy initiatives encompassing resolutions, projects,
rates, Net interest margins for 2023 declined owing to and restrain cost growth below income growth rates, the and decrees aimed at fostering and promoting sandbox
undisbursed credit systemic Cost-to-Income Ratio experienced a marginal activities within 3 distinct domains: Open AI, credit
Average NIM of Vietnamese banks uptick scoring, and peer-to-peer lending.
Cost-to-income ratio of the banking system ➢ The digital transformation in Vietnam
is currently entering stage 3

#5. Metaverse
banking
#4.
Decentralized
#3. Open and banking
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2024 beyond banking
#2. Digital
Despite COVID challenges, Vietnamese banks have 9) Profit after tax growth rate of commercial banks banking
#1.
consistently been profitable, recording impressive NIM decline significantly due to challenges in both credit and
Traditional
during the pandemic hit period. However, after peaking at non-credit operations banking
3.82% in 2022, commercial banks' net interest margin YoY growth of profit after tax (PAT) of 27 listed banks 12) The green credit market has not yet developed in line
(NIM) fell to just 3.43% in 2023, driven by sluggish growth with its potential and demand
in interest income and a reduction in CASA deposits. Outstanding green credit (VNDtrn) and its proportion relative
to total credit outstanding
7) A cascade of adverse events dealt a significant blow
to the banking sector, resulting in a notable decline in
earnings growth across non-credit segments
Gross fee & commission income of listed banks (VNDtrn)

Gross fee & commission income YoY Growth 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2023 Q1.2024
10) The profitability of most banks diminished due to the
decoration of operating income coupled with a higher
provision burden
Average ROE and ROA of Vietnamese banks ROE
ROA

Renewable energy, clean energy

Green agriculture

Outstanding green credit Sustainable water management


2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2023 Q1.2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2024 Green credit/ total credit Others
Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 7
Table of Contents

Section 1: Banking sector review and competitive


landscape among commercial banks

1.1 Credit growth quality 9


1.2 Deposit growth 16
1.3 Asset quality 21
1.4 Liquidity 27
1.5 Earnings quality 30
1.6 Operational efficiency 35
1.7 Profitability 37
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 8


Section 1: Review of the banking sector Outstanding credit & growth
1.1 Credit growth

Credit growth continued to slow down throughout 2023 due to the economy’s weak capacity to absorb capital

Figure 1: Outstanding credit (VNDtrn) & YoY growth Figure 2: YTD credit growth
Outstanding credit (VNDtrn) Total credit YoY growth
VNDtrn

2023 2022 2021 2024


+x.x% 16%
+x.x% YTD
14%
YTD
12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Mar-23 Mar-24 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: FiinGroup from SBV Source: FiinGroup from SBV.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 9


Section 1: Review of the banking sector Outstanding credit & growth
1.1 Credit growth

Despite initial sluggishness, credit growth reached 13.78% following multiple interest rate cuts by the State
Bank of Vietnam
Figure 3: SBV’s policy rates and commercial banks’ average deposit rate Figure 4: Systemwide credit and deposit (YoY)
12 - 24 months deposit interest rates (VND)
Total Credit YoY growth Total deposit YoY growth
Refinancing Interest Rate
16%
9%
Re-discount Interest Rate
14%

12%
6% 10%

8%

6%
3%
4%

2%

0% 0%
Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23

Source: FiinGroup from SBV and banks’ websites. Source: FiinGroup from SBV.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 10


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.1 Credit growth Credit growth by segment

The contribution of retail loans to bank’s total loans experienced a downturn in 2023 after years of steady
growth
Figure 5: Breakdown of systemwide credit outstanding by segments (VNDtrn)
2023 YoY 2022 YoY

Investment in corporate bonds

Loan to SMEs

Loan to large corporates

Retail loan

Systemwide credit growth 13.8% 14.2%

2020 2021 2022 2023


Source: FiinGroup estimated from SBV Statistics and banks’ financial statements. Note: Percentages of retail, corporate, and investment in C-bonds over total loans are estimated from the financial statements of 27 banks accounting
for 75% of total outstanding credit in 2023. The Loan to SMEs and large corporate growth are estimated from 27 banks with the proportion disclosed by the SBV

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 11


Section 1: Review of the banking sector Credit growth by segment|Retail loan
1.1 Credit growth

Corporate lending drives credit growth amid sluggish retail loan market in 2023

Figure 6: YoY growth of retail, corporate and total customer loans of


27 domestic commercial banks
▪ In 2023, the retail loan segment of commercial
25%
Corporate loans
banks experienced sluggish growth, increasing by
only 11.7% throughout the year. This marks a
20%
significant decline of over 10% compared to the
Banks' total loans
15% growth rates observed in the previous two years.
10% ▪ Consequently, the corporate segment has become
Retail loans
the primary driver of credit growth for most banks
5%
this year. Even banks that traditionally focus on
0% retail customers, such as VPB, STB, VIB, and TPB,
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 shifted their focus towards the corporate sector to
Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks’ financial statements and presentations, accounting for ~75% of total outstanding credit in 2023. boost their credit growth.
Figure 7: Retail loan vs corporate loan (YoY) growth by major commercial banks, 2023
100% Retail loan, YoY growth Corporate loan, YoY growth
80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%
BID CTG VCB MBB TCB VPB ACB STB SHB HDB VIB LPB TPB MSB SSB OCB NAB EIB BAB ABB VBB VAB NVB KLB BVB PGB SGB
SOCBs Tier 1 - JSCBs Tier 2 - JSCBs Tier 3 - JSCBs
Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks’ financial statements. Tier 1 banks have a total asset exceeding VND 300trn in Q1.2024. Tier 2 banks have a total asset from VND100trn – VND300trn, Tier 1 banks have a total asset below VND300trn

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 12


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
Credit to real estate
1.1 Credit growth

Credit to the real estate sector slowed down amid economic hardship

Figure 8: Outstanding credit to real estate (VNDtrn) and YoY growth Credit to developers
% of total
outstanding x.x% x.x% x.x% x.x% x.x%
credit

3,000

2,400
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Credit to home buyers


1,800

1,200

600

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Credit to home buyers (VNDtrn) Credit to developers (VNDtrn) YoY growth of credit to real estate

Source: FiinGroup from SBV. Note: Credit to real estate sector includes customer loans and real estate C-bonds held by commercial banks.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 13


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.1 Credit growth Credit to real estate

Declining demand contracts homebuyer loans, while Government policies drive the expansion in developer
segment
Figure 9: Loans to real estate-related sectors (real estate, construction & construction materials) in loan books of selected commercial banks (VNDtrn)

Credit to homebuyers Credit to developers Real estate exposure


400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
TCB BID VPB VIB MSB

Source: FiinGroup from financial statements and investor presentations of commercial banks. Note: loans to real estate-related sectors do not include C-bonds.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 14


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.1 Credit growth Credit growth by banks

Credit growth diverse among bank groups with corporate-focused banks leading the way

Figure 10: Outstanding credit and YoY growth by bank, Q1.2024

1,800 Outstanding credit Average YoY growth YoY Credit growth


VNDtrn

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
BID CTG VCB MBB TCB VPB ACB STB SHB HDB VIB LPB TPB MSB SSB OCB NAB EIB BAB ABB VBB VAB NVB KLB BVB PGB SGB
SOCBs Tier 1 - JSCBs Tier 2 - JSCBs Tier 3 - JSCBs
Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks’ financial statements. Tier 1 banks have a total asset exceeding VND 300trn in Q1.2024. Tier 2 banks have a total asset from VND100trn – VND300trn, Tier 1 banks have a total asset below VND300trn
. Note: banks’ outstanding credit is the sum of their outstanding customer loans and investment in corporate bonds of economic entities.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 15


Table of Contents

Section 1: Banking sector review and competitive


landscape among commercial banks

1.1 Credit growth quality 10


1.2 Deposit growth 27
1.3 Asset quality 22
1.4 Liquidity 28
1.5 Earnings quality 31
1.6 Operational efficiency 36
1.7 Profitability 48
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 16


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.2 Deposit growth & funding structure

Despite the race to lower deposit interest rates in 2023, customer deposits have soared to a peak

Figure 11: Customer deposits (VNDtrn) and YoY growth Figure 12: YTD deposit growth
Retail Deposits Wholesale Deposits Total customer deposit YoY growth
2024 2023 2022 2021
15,000 15%

12%
12,000

9%
9,000
6%
6,000
3%

3,000
0%

0 -3%
Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Feb-24 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: FiinGroup from SBV. Retail deposits are deposits by individuals, while wholesale deposits are ones Source: FiinGroup from SBV
by economic entities.

Figure 13: Average deposit interest rates in VND


10% 1 to 6 months 6 to 12 months 12 to 24 months

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Source: FiinGroup from SBV


Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 17
Section 1: Review of the banking sector
Retail deposit vs wholesales deposit
1.2 Deposit growth & funding structure

Wholesale deposits plunged as enterprises struggled with high lending rates amidst economic
slowdown
Figure 14: YoY growth of wholesale, retail and total customer deposits Figure 15: Contribution of retail and wholesale deposits to total
customer deposits
YoY growth of wholesale deposits YoY growth of retail deposits
25%
YoY growth of total deposit Retail deposits Wholesale deposits

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%
Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Feb-24

Source: FiinGroup from SBV Source: FiinGroup from SBV

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 18


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
CASA deposits
1.2 Deposit growth & funding structure

The surge in term deposits contrasts with a decline in the CASA deposits in the first quarter of 2024, signifying a
shift among depositors towards term deposits to earn higher interest rates
Figure 16: 27 listed Banks’ current account saving account (CASA) ratio
2022 2023 Q1.2024
45%

40% The sector CASA ratio Q1.2024: x.x%


(-x.0% YTD)
35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
TCB MBB VCB MSB TPB ACB CTG BID STB EIB VPB PGB VIB ABB OCB SSB LPB HDB SHB SGB BVB NVB NAB VBB KLB VAB BAB

Source: FiinGroup from financial statements of 27 banks whose customer deposits accounted for 75% of total customer deposits in 1Q2023

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 19


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
Funding structure
1.2 Deposit growth & funding structure

Banks actively diversify their funding structure by raising capital from alternative sources to ensure liquidity
and comply with SBV's prudential ratios
Figure 17: Funding structure of banks as of March-2024

Banks with high reliance on customer deposits Banks diversified funding sources to valuable papers and
as a funding source deposits & borrowings from other CIs

Entrusted investment
capital

Due to Gov and SBV

Valuable papers

Deposit and borowing from


other credit institutions

Customer deposits

VAB EIB NVB STB BAB SGB VCB BID SHB BVB ACB NAB CTG MBB VBB LPB KLB HDB PGB VPB ABB SSB VIB OCB TCB TPB MSB

Source: FiinGroup from financial statements of 27 banks whose total customer deposits accounted for 75% of total deposits of credit institutions in 2023.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 20


Table of Contents

Section 1: Banking sector review and competitive


landscape among commercial banks

1.1 Credit growth quality 9


1.2 Deposit growth 16
1.3 Asset quality 21
1.4 Liquidity 27
1.5 Earnings quality 30
1.6 Operational efficiency 35
1.7 Profitability 37
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 21


Section 1: Review of the banking sector NPL ratios
1.3 Asset quality

NPL formation rates remained very high, signaling the further deterioration of banks’ asset quality

Figure 18: Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios of credit institutions


Mar-2020, Cir 01 was Apr-2023, Cir 02 was
issued, replaced by May-2021, Cir Oct- 2022, SCB issued, expired on
Cir 03 later 03 was issued, was put on June-2024
expired on special control
Dec-2023

2019 2020 2021 2022 7M2023 2023


On-balance sheet NPL ratio Gross NPL ratio (on-balance sheet NPLs, VAMC & potential bad debts)
Source: FiinGroup, SBV
Note: On-balance sheet NPL and gross NPL ratio was calculated including NPL of 5 commercial banks under
special controls (CB, Ocean Bank, GP Bank, Dong A Bank and SCB). Excluding NPL of these 5 banks, systemwide
on-balance sheet ratio was recorded at 1.69% and gross NPL ratio was recorded at 3.36% as of Dec-2023.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 22


Section 1: Review of the banking sector NPL ratios
1.3 Asset quality

Bad debt ratios soared across most commercial banks revealing deteriorated payment capacity of customers
during the economic downturn
Figure 19: Extended NPL ratio & NPL ratio of 27 listed bank
NPL Extended NPL

Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Figure 20: Extended NPL ratio by individual listed banks, March 2024

35%
LG2 ratio
30%
NPL ratio
25%

20% Extended NPL (LG2-5) ratio of 27 banks = 4.3%

15%
NPL (LG3-5) ratio of 27 banks = 2.2%
10%

5%

0%
NVB VPB ABB BVB VIB MSB VBB SHB PGB OCB EIB NAB MBB KLB SGB VAB STB HDB TPB SSB BID ACB LPB CTG VCB TCB BAB
Source: FiinGroup from financial statements of 27 banks whose outstanding credit accounted for 75% of total outstanding credit in 2023.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 23


Section 1: Review of the banking sector Loan loss coverage
1.3 Asset quality

Banks experienced an increase in non-performing loans surpassing their provisions for potential losses, resulting
in a decline in the industry's reserve cushion
Figure 21: Bad debt coverage ratios of listed banks
Loan loss reserve/NPLs Loan loss reserve/Overdue debts

Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24


Source: FiinGroup from financial statements of 27 listed banks

Figure 22: Loan loss coverage ratio of commercial banks


350% Banks with loan loss coverage ratio 2022 2023 Q1.2024
above 100%
300%

250%

200%

150% Banks with low loan loss coverage ratio


(<50%)
100%

50%

0%
VCB BID CTG TCB BAB LPB SSB MBB ACB STB SHB TPB HDB OCB MSB VPB VAB VIB KLB NAB ABB SGB BVB EIB VBB PGB NVB

Source: FiinGroup from 27 listed banks’ financial statements, accounting for 75% of total outstanding credit.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 24


Section 1: Review of the banking sector NPL ratios
1.3 Asset quality

Credit quality further deteriorated, banks accelerated using provision to handle non-performing loans

Figure 23: Change in absolute amount of Loan Group 4 and 5 in Dec - 2023 vs Mar - 2024
120% Loan group 4 Loan group 5

90%

60%

30%

0%

-30%

-60%
VBB SGB NAB MBB ACB KLB MSB VCB OCB CTG VPB HDB VAB PGB TPB ABB BAB TCB BID VIB BVB LPB SSB STB EIB SHB NVB
Source: FiinGroup from financial statements of 27 banks whose outstanding credit accounted for 75% of total outstanding credit in Q1.2024.
Figure 24: Total Write-off amount of 27 listed banks (VNDbn)

2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2023 Q1.2024


Source: FiinGroup from banks’ financial statements.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 25


Section 1: Review of the banking sector NPL ratios
1.3 Asset quality

The Accrued Interest/Earning asset ratio accelerated in 2023 implied a warning signal for banks’ loan book
quality
Figure 25: YoY growth of Accrued interest and fee
50% The expiration of
Circular 14, June 2022
40%

30%

20%
Accrued interest and fees began increasing following
10% the expiration of Cir 14, which provided reductions and
exemptions for interest and fees.
0%

-10%

-20%
Q1-2021 Q2-2021 Q3-2021 Q4-2021 Q1-2022 Q2-2022 Q3-2022 Q4-2022 Q1-2023 Q2-2023 Q3-2023 Q4-2023 Q1-2024
Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks’ financial statements.

Figure 26: Top 10 banks with the highest Accrued Interest/ Earning asset ratio in March - 2024
2022 2023 Q1.2024
9%

6%

3%

0%
VAB NVB SHB BAB BVB MSB KLB VBB SGB NAB
Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks’ financial statements.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 26


Table of Contents

Section 1: Banking sector review and competitive


landscape among commercial banks

1.1 Credit growth quality 9


1.2 Deposit growth 16
1.3 Asset quality 21
1.4 Liquidity 27
1.5 Earnings quality 30
1.6 Operational efficiency 35
1.7 Profitability 37
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 27


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.4 Liquidity

The surge in the overnight rate highlights tightened liquidity due to SBV liquidity absorption through T-bills and
OMO, seasonal liquidity recalibration by banks
Figure 27: Interbank rates
12% The fourth time SBV cut
down policy rates in 2023

9%

6%

3%

0%
Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24

Average InterBank Interest Rate Over Night Average InterBank Interest Rate 1 week
Average InterBank Interest Rate 2 weeks Average InterBank Interest Rate 1 Month
Linear
Source: FiinGroup from (Average InterBank Interest Rate 1 Month)
FiinProX

Figure 28: Government bond yield fixing


1y 2y 5y 10y 15y Linear (10y)
6%

4%

2%

0%
Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24

Source: FiinGroup from VBMA. Note: government bond yield fixing is the average of bid and ask prices of commercial banks.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 28


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.4 Liquidity

Banks assure prudential ratios, but capital mobilization remains under pressure

Figure 29: Money supply growth, customer deposit growth Figure 30: Short-term (ST) deposits to medium- and long
and credit growth term (MLT) loans of credit institutions
16% Actual ratio of all credit institutions Ceiling ratio set by the SBV

12%

8%

4%

0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Dec - 2019 Dec - 2020 Dec - 2021 Dec - 2022 Dec - 2023 Mar - 2024
Credit YoY growth Customer deposit YoY growth Source: FiinGroup from SBV. Note: SBV lowered the ratio cap to 37% from Oct 2021, 34% from Oct 2022 and 30%
Money supply (M2) YoY growth from Oct 2023.
Source: FiinGroup from SBV

Figure 31: Loan-to-deposit (LDR) ratio of Vietnamese banks


Banking System SOCBs JSCBs
SBV Cap = 85%

Dec - 2020 Dec - 2021 Dec - 2022 Dec - 2023 Mar - 2024
Source: FiinGroup from SBV

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 29


Table of Contents

Section 1: Banking sector review and competitive


landscape among commercial banks

1.1 Credit growth quality 9


1.2 Deposit growth 16
1.3 Asset quality 21
1.4 Liquidity 27
1.5 Earnings quality 30
1.6 Operational efficiency 35
1.7 Profitability 37
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 30


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.5 Earnings quality

Commercial banks encountered profitability challenges in both their credit and non-credit operations

Figure 32: Income structure of listed banks, VNDtrn


Net Interest Income Net Fee & Commission Income Other Operating Income

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2023 Q1.2024
Sources: FiinGroup from 28 listed banks with outstanding credit accounting for 73% of total outstanding credit
Figure 33: Income YoY growth by segment of listed banks
2021 2022 2023 Q1.2024

Net Interest Income Net Fee & Commission Income Other Operating Income Total Operating Income

Sources: FiinGroup from 28 listed banks with outstanding credit accounting for 73% of total outstanding credit

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 31


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
Net Interest Income
1.5 Earnings quality

Despite reductions in mobilization costs and interest rates, Net interest margins for 2023 declined owing to
undisbursed credit
Figure 34: Average NIM of Vietnamese banks Figure 35: YoY and QoQ growth of net interest income of listed banks

Net Interest Income (QoQ) Net Interest Income (YoY)

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2024
2021 2022 2023 2024
Figure 36: Interest rate spread of the banking system
14% Yield on average loan Costs of funds

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: FiinGroup from financial statements of 27 banks whose customer loans accounted for 75% of total outstanding credit as of March 2023.
Note: Yield on average loans and costs of funds are annualized.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 32


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.5 Earnings quality Net Interest Income

NIM widely narrowed down across banks compared to last year


Figure 37: Net interest margin (NIM) of commercial banks,
Q1.2024 Change in NIM, Q1.2024 vs 2023
BID
SOCBs

CTG
VCB
MBB
TCB
VPB
Tier 1 - JSCBs

ACB
STB
SHB
HDB
VIB
LPB
TPB
MSB
SSB
OCB
Tier 2 - JSCBs

NAB
EIB
BAB
ABB
Sector average
VBB
VAB
NIM = x.xx%
NVB
Tier 3 - JSCBs

KLB
BVB
PGB
SGB

Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks’ financial statements. Tier 1 banks have a total asset exceeding VND 300trn in Q1.2024. Tier 2 banks have a total asset from VND100trn – VND300trn, Tier 1 banks have a total asset below VND300trn

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 33


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
Net fee & commission income
1.5 Earnings quality

A cascade of adverse events dealt a significant blow to the banking sector, resulting in a notable decline in
earnings growth across non-credit segments
Figure 38: Gross fee & commission income of listed banks (VNDtrn) Figure 39: Composition of banks’ gross fee & commission income
Gross fee & commission income YoY Growth
Income from settlement services &
treasury activities

2023 2022
Income from agency services

Income from insurance business

Investment banking services and


others

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2023 Q1.2024

Figure 40: Gross Income from insurance business of commercial banks Figure 41: Gross Income from insurance business of selected banks
(VNDtrn) and YoY growth (VNDtrn) 2022 2023 YoY growth
Income from insurance business YoY Growth
12

10

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MBB BID VPB CTG LPB HDB VIB STB TCB
Sources: FiinGroup from 27 listed banks with outstanding credit accounting for 75% of total outstanding credit
Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 34
Table of Contents

Section 1: Banking sector review and competitive


landscape among commercial banks

1.1 Credit growth quality 9


1.2 Deposit growth 16
1.3 Asset quality 21
1.4 Liquidity 27
1.5 Earnings quality 30
1.6 Operational efficiency 35
1.7 Profitability 37
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 35


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
Operation efficiency
1.6 Operational efficiency & profitability

Despite concerted efforts to prioritize cost management and restrain cost growth below income growth rates,
the systemic Cost-to-Income Ratio experienced a marginal uptick
Figure 42: Cost-to-income ratio of the banking system Figure 43: Operating income vs operating expenses of listed banks
YoY growth of total operating income YoY growth of operating expense

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2024
2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks with outstanding credit accounting for 75% of total outstanding credit as of March 2024.
Figure 44: Cost-to-income ratio of 27 banks
2022 2023 Q1.2024
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
NVB VBB BVB SGB BAB PGB ABB KLB STB NAB EIB OCB TPB VAB VIB ACB SSB MSB HDB BID LPB VCB MBB TCB VPB CTG SHB
Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks with outstanding credit accounting for 75% of total outstanding credit as of March 2024.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 36


Table of Contents

Section 1: Banking sector review and competitive


landscape among commercial banks

1.1 Credit growth quality 9


1.2 Deposit growth 16
1.3 Asset quality 21
1.4 Liquidity 27
1.5 Earnings quality 30
1.6 Operational efficiency 35
1.7 Profitability 37
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 37


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
Profitability indicators
1.7 Profitability

Profit after tax growth rate of commercial banks decline significantly due to challenges in both credit and non-
credit operations
Figure 45: YoY growth of profit after tax (PAT) of Vietnamese banks Figure 46: YoY growth of profit after tax (PAT) of 27 listed banks
BID 2023
Q1.2024
SOCBs

CTG
VCB
MBB
TCB
VPB
Tier 1 - JSCBs

ACB
STB
SHB
HDB
VIB
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2023 Q1.2024
LPB
TPB
MSB Figure 47: SOCBs & JSCBs with the highest Net Profit Margin, Q1.2024
SSB
2022 2023 Q1.2024
OCB
Tier 2 - JSCBs

NAB 60%
EIB 50%
BAB
ABB 40%

VBB 30%
VAB
20%
Tier 3 - JSCBs

KLB
BVB 10%
PGB
0%
SGB VCB BID CTG SHB LPB TCB ACB SSB OCB HDB

Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks accounting for 75% of total outstanding credit. SOCBs JSCBs

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 38


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
Profitability indicators
1.7 Profitability

The profitability of most banks diminished in 2023 due to the decoration of operating income coupled with a
higher provision burden
Figure 48: Average ROE and ROA of Vietnamese banks
ROE ROA

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2024

Figure 49: SOCBs & JSCBs with the highest ROE, Q1.2024 Figure 50: SOCBs & JSCBs with the highest ROA, Q1.2024
2022 2023 Q1.2024 2022 2023 Q1.2024
3.5%
35%

30% 3.0%

25% 2.5%

20% 2.0%

15% 1.5%

10% 1.0%

5% 0.5%

0% 0.0%
VCB BID CTG HDB LPB SHB ACB VIB NAB MBB VCB BID CTG TCB LPB ACB HDB SHB MBB VIB
SOCBs JSCBs SOCBs JSCBs
Source: FiinGroup from 27 banks accounting for 75% of total outstanding credit.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 39


Table of Contents

Section 1: Banking sector review and competitive


landscape among commercial banks

1.1 Credit growth quality 9


1.2 Deposit growth 16
1.3 Asset quality 21
1.4 Liquidity 27
1.5 Earnings quality 30
1.6 Operational efficiency 35
1.7 Profitability 37
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio 40

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 40


Section 1: Review of the banking sector
1.8 Capital adequacy ratio

Amid challenging economic conditions and market volatility, commercial banks persist in fortifying their capital
buffers to bolster resilience and navigate uncertainties
Figure 51: Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) over banking Figure 52: Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of APAC commercial banks,
system in 2023

SOCBs JSCBs Foreign banks


2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: FiinGroup from SBV. Note: from 2020 SBV started to announce CAR of banks applying Source: FiinGroup from the countries' central banks.
Circular 41 (Basel II) and Circular 22 for calculation separately, so we calculated 2022 from
weighted-average CAR ratios by group of banks. The weights were determined from their risk-
weighted assets as reported by SBV over total.

Figure 53: SOCBs & JSCBs with the highest CAR, 2023 Figure 54: CAR of banks applying Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN, 2022
(Circular 41/2016/TT-NHNN)

VCB CTG BID SGB VPB TCB SSB EIB OCB MSB PGB NVB AGRB KLB
SOCBs JSCBs Source: FiinGroup from banks' CAR announcements. Note: CAR’s PGB, NVB and KLB are consolidated
Source: FiinGroup from banks' CAR announcements and investor presentations. numbers. CAR’s AGRB is on separated basis.
Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 41
Table of Contents

Section 2: Key market and development trends

New progress of digital transformation in banking


2.1 43
sector

The Rise of Green Finance: A New Era of Sustainable


2.2 50
Credit Capital

M&A and Sector Consolidation: Foreign Players Expand


2.3 55
Foothold in Vietnam

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 42


Section 2: Key market and development trends
2.1. New progress of digital transformation in banking sector

#5. Metaverse banking

#4. Decentralized banking

#3. Open and beyond banking


➢ The digital transformation in Vietnam is currently entering stage 3
Please elaborate on the following pages
#2. Digital banking

#1. Traditional banking

➢ Trend of open banking ➢ Policy initiatives encompassing resolutions, projects, and decrees aimed at
fostering and promoting sandbox activities within 3 distinct domains: Open
➢ The rise of Gen AI AI, credit scoring, and peer-to-peer lending.
Please find the details on the next page

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 43


Section 2: Key market and development trends
Open banking
2.1. New progress of digital transformation in banking sector

Open Banking is an inevitable innovation trend in the banking industry in the age of digital transformation

Open banking provides third-party financial service providers open access to consumer banking, transactions, and other financial data from banks and
non-bank Fis through the use of APIs.

>> The shift from closed to open banking


Account
services
Payment Fintech
Core
services partners
banking
Fintech

Closed banking Lending

Open banking APIs

Core Customer
banking Payment data
network

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 44


Section 2: Key market and development trends
Open banking
2.1. New progress of digital transformation in banking sector
Open Banking attracts the investments of Vietnamese banks due to its immense potential to drive financial
innovation
Benefits of open banking

Banks Customers 3rd party providers (TPP)

Associated risks Application in Vietnam

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 45


Table of Contents

Section 2: Key market and development trends

2.1 New progress of digital transformation in banking sector 43

The Rise of Green Finance: A New Era of Sustainable Credit


2.2 50
Capital

M&A and Sector Consolidation: Foreign Players Expand


2.3 55
Foothold in Vietnam

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 46


Section 2: Key market and development trends
AI
2.1. New progress of digital transformation in banking sector

AI is the driving force behind the development of the banking industry in the coming years
❖ Artificial intelligence is the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially computer systems with the features:
➢ Machine Learning (ML): Adaptability and self-learning are intrinsic characteristics of AI, enabling them to evolve and advance with time. By processing new
data and gaining more experience, AI can modify performances and continuously improve abilities
➢ Natural Language Processing (NLP): AI can understand and respond to human language by leveraging chatbots, virtual assistants, and analysis of text data.
❖ In the banking sector, AI has a range of applications driving measurable improvements in customer experience, operational efficiency, and security and
compliance

AI applications in banking

Chatbot Robotic Process Automation (RPA) Quantitative trading Computer Vision

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 47


Section 2: Key market and development trends
AI
2.1. New progress of digital transformation in banking sector

AI brings opportunities for the banking industry to improve efficiency, enhance customer experience, and manage
risk
Opportunities Challenges

Generative AI has become a major trend in the banking sector

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 48


Section 2: Key market and development trends
AI
2.1. New progress of digital transformation in banking sector

Commercial banks are accelerating using AI to optimize workflows and enhance customer experience
AI Applications of selected commercial banks in Vietnam
Bank 1 Bank 2 Bank 3 Bank 4 Bank 5 Bank 6 Bank 7 Bank 8 Bank 9

Automated services

eKYC
MB SmartBank Live Bank
Mobile Banking
applications
New Website Portal with
a convenient interface

Chatbot/ virtual assistant

Open Application
Programming Interface BIDV Pay Gate iConect
(Open API)

AL/ML applications

Biometrics

Partnerships with
Fintech
On, Be Group One Mount Group Be group, Timo

Cloud Computing

Big data on IoT platforms

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 49


Table of Contents

Section 2: Key market and development trends

2.1 New progress of digital transformation in banking sector 43

The Rise of Green Finance: A New Era of Sustainable


2.2 50
Credit Capital

M&A and Sector Consolidation: Foreign Players Expand


2.3 55
Foothold in Vietnam

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 50


Section 3: Key development trends in financial sectors
3.2 The Rise of Green Finance: A New Era of Sustainable Credit Capital

Vietnamese Government accelerates greening investment capital for sustainable development goals

Figure 55: Outstanding credit assessed for environmental and social risks - ESR
Outstanding credit assessed for ESR/total credit

2020 2021 2022 2023

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 51


Section 3: Key development trends in financial sectors
Current state
3.2 The Rise of Green Finance: A New Era of Sustainable Credit Capital

The green credit market has not yet developed in line with its potential and demand

Figure 56: Outstanding green credit (VNDtrn) and its proportion relative to total credit outstanding
Outstanding green credit Green credit/ total credit
CAGR 2015-2023 = x.x% Renewable energy,
clean energy

Green agriculture

Sustainable water
management

Others

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1.2024
Source: FiinGroup from SBV

Figure 57: Major players of green credit outstanding, 2023 Green bonds
% Total
loans From 2019 - 2023, Vietnam issued US$1.16 bn in green bonds, incl. pilot
2023 x.x% x.x% x.x% x.x% x.x% x.x% x.x%
issues for major projects in renewable energy, green transportation, and green
real estate, etc.

2022 2023
Year of Total amount
Segment Issuer Term
issuance issued (US$mn)

Green

BID MBB CTG VCB AGRB VPB HDB


Social and
Source: FiinGroup from banks’ disclosure sustainability

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 52


Section 3: Key development trends in financial sectors
Growth potentials
3.2 The Rise of Green Finance: A New Era of Sustainable Credit Capital

Vietnamese banks are poised to unlock the growth potential of the underdeveloped green finance market

Figure 58: Outstanding amount of sustainable bonds in ASEAN+3 Figure 59: Issuance amount of sustainable bonds in ASEAN+3 markets
markets (USDbn), 2019-2023 (USDbn), 2019-2023
1,000 250
Transition bonds
800 200
Sustainability-linked bonds
600 150
Sustainability bonds
400 100
Social bonds
200 50
Green bonds
0 -
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: FiinGroup from ADB
Source: FiinGroup from ADB
Vietnamese banks have significant opportunities to generate substantial
Vietnam Net-zero Plan revenue related to ESG
Revenue sources after 2025 (US$ bn) Main ESG-related products
Transition finance ➢ ESG-linked banking transactions
➢ Project finance
➢ DCM and Syndicated loans

The structure of credit outstanding, 2023 Total ESG-linked capital


2050 ➢ FICC
~1.7 market ➢ Sale and trading of shares
➢ ECM and M&A

ESG-linked banking ➢ Trade and supply chain finance


transactions ➢ Card products
➢ Deposits
Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 53
Section 3: Key development trends in financial sectors
Key challenges
3.2 The Rise of Green Finance: A New Era of Sustainable Credit Capital

Issuance of a green taxonomy is the most urgent task to addressing challenges and unlocking “green potentials”

CHALLENGES SOLUTIONS

Pending issuance of the Green Classification List Standardization and update of Green criteria &
practices

Maturity mismatch & insufficient preferential Green investment attraction mechanisms and policies
policy support

Incomplete legal framework for green bonds Boosting green certification and financial market development
Table of Contents

Section 2: Key market and development trends

2.1 New progress of digital transformation in banking sector 43

The Rise of Green Finance: A New Era of Sustainable Credit


2.2 50
Capital

M&A and Sector Consolidation: Foreign Players Expand


2.3 55
Foothold in Vietnam

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 55


Section 3: Key development trends in financial sectors
BANKING
3.3 M&A and sector consolidation

M&A deals in the banking industry are expected to be on the rise despite unfavorable market conditions

M&A DEALS IN BANKING SECTOR ON A DOMESTIC AND REGIONAL SCALE IN 2023 EXPECTED M&A TRANSACTIONS IN 2024

Regional Scale Domestic Scale Mandatory transfer of weak banks

Normal M&A

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 56


Table of Contents

Section 3: Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates

3.1 Law on Credit Institutions 2024 59


3.2 Circular 22/2023/TT-NHNN & Circular 06/2023/TT-NHN 60
3.3 Vietnam Land Law 2024 & Law on Real Estate Business 61

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 57


Section 3: Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates

Amended laws with the early interventions serve to mitigate systemic risks and foster the sustainable
advancement of the Vietnamese economy

Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates

Regulations directly impact the operations of Cis Regulations indirectly affect the activities of Cis

Law on Credit Institutions 2024 Vietnam Land Law 2024

Circular 22/2023/TT-NHNN (Amending Circular 41/2016) Law on Real Estate Business 2023

Circular 06/2023/TT-NHNN (Amending Circular 39/2016) Draft Decree regulating the Controlled Testing Mechanism
in the Banking Sector

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 58


Section 3: Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates
Law on Credit Institutions
3.1. Law on Credit Institutions
The coming enacted Law on Credit Institutions 2024 is expected to alleviate its operational challenges, heading
to a pivotal era of regulatory enhancement and financial efficiency
TITLE SCOPE OF APPLICATIONS KEY ACTIONS IMPLICATIONS
Law on Credit Institutions 2024

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 59


Section 3: Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates Circular 22/2023/TT-NHNN &
3.2. Circular 22/2023/TT-NHNN & Circular 06/2023/TT-NHN Circular 06/2023/TT-NHN
Circulars 22 and 06 have revamped Circulars 41 and 39, aligning with governmental socioeconomic goals while
safeguarding the viability of credit institutions for enhanced financial stewardship
TITLE SCOPE OF APPLICATIONS KEY ACTIONS IMPLICATIONS
Circular 22/2023/TT-NHNN (Amending
Circular 41/2016)
(Amending Circular 39/2016)
Circular 06/2023/TT-NHNN

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 60


Section 3: Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates Vietnam Land Law 2024 &
3.3. Vietnam Land Law 2024 & Law on Real Estate Business Law on Real Estate Business

The new policies will be a bright spot for the real estate industry in the coming period

No Regulations Status Key Actions

Implications:

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 61


Section 3: Major Policy and Regulatory Framework Updates
3.3. Vietnam Land Law 2024 & Law on Real Estate Business
The issuance of a new decree to regulate Controlled Testing in banking aims to foster innovation by opening up 3
pilot domains

TITLE SCOPE OF APPLICATIONS KEY ACTIONS


Draft Decree: Regulations on the Controlled Testing Mechanism in

Credit scoring
the Banking Sector

Peer-to-peer lending
IMPLICATIONS (P2P lending)

Data sharing
through Open API

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 62


Table of Contents

Section 4: Macroeconomic updates

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 63


Section 5: Macroeconomics updates
Economic growth

Despite challenging global economic conditions, Vietnam ranked among the countries with the highest GDP
growth in the region
Figure 60: GDP growth of Vietnam compared to countries in ASEAN-6

2022 2023

Phillippines Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore

Source: FiinGroup, GSO & official publish of ASEAN’s countries


Figure 61: Vietnam GDP growth forecast 2024

7.0%

6.5%
National Assembly target:
6-6.5%
6.0%

5.5%

5.0%
Fitch Ratings ADB UOB Bloomberg HSBC Standard Chartered
Source: FiinGroup’s collection
Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 64
Section 5: Macroeconomics updates Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output and export saw recovery signs given rising new orders and improved market sentiment
Figure 62: PMI of Vietnam revealed recovery of manufacturing output thanks to Figure 63: YoY growth of Vietnam's exports to major trade markets witnessed a
improved global orders rebound

65 Malaysia Phillipines Singapore


United States Mainland China Europe
Thailand Vietnam Threshold
60

55

50

45

40
Q1-2023 Q2-2023 Q3-2023 Q4-2023 2M2024

Figure 64: Import and export activities saw recovery signals in the first 2 months of 2024 thanks to resumed global demand

Import Export Trade Surplus (Deficit)


Export: + 19.7% YoY Key export products:

Import: +17.9% YoY


Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 2M2023 2M2024

Source: FiinGroup, S&P Global, GSO

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 65


Section 5: Macroeconomics updates Domestic consumption

Inflation rate forecasted to stay below 4.5%, fueled by steady rebound of domestic consumption demand & key
commodities supplies
Figure 65: Vietnam CPI and core inflation Figure 66: YoY growth of retail sale

Total retail sale growth in 2023: 8.6% vs 2022

CPI target of National


Assembly: 4-4.5%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Jan-24 Feb-24 2024e 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Core inflation CPI


Source: FiinGroup, GSO Source: FiinGroup, GSO

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 66


Contact us

Hai Khieu Head Office


Director, Head of Market Research and Consulting 10th Floor, Peakview Tower, 36 Hoang Cau Street,
T: +84 24 3562 6962 (ext. 110) O Cho Dua Ward, Dong Da District, Hanoi, Vietnam
E: hai.khieu@fiingroup.vn Tel: +84 24 3562 6962

Oanh Tran Ho Chi Minh City Branch


Manager, Market Research & Consulting 16th Floor, Bitexco Financial Tower, 2 Hai Trieu Street,
T: +84 (024) 3562 6962 (ext. 105) Ben Nghe Ward, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
E: oanh.trankieu@fiingroup.vn Tel: +84 28 3933 3586/ 85

Linh Le, FRM


Business Development Manager, Market Research
& Consulting
T: +84 (024) 3562 6962
E: linh.ledieu@fiingroup.vn

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Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating 67

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