The Revival of Militancy in Pakistan

In the year 2008, Military Operation Rah-e-Raast was launched in Malakand division. In
2009, Rah-e-Nijaat was launched in South Waziristan. In 2014, series of Khyber Operations
were launched. In 2014, the mother of all military operations Zarb-e-Azab was launched in
North Waziristan. Rad-ul-Fasaad was launched across the country in 2017-18. Resultantly,
militancy was apparently defeated in the ex-FATA, Malakand division, and other parts of KP
and Baluchistan as thousands of militants were either being captured or they infiltrated into
Afghanistan. Many more were killed. The government and policy makers thought they have
defeated TTP and other terrorist organizations, but unfortunately the defeat was temporary as
there has been a dangerous revival of militancy in Pakistan/the war-zones. As per the annual
security report of the Centre for Research and Security Studies, the country “witnessed
1,524 violence-related fatalities/deaths due war or disease and 1,463 injuries from 789
terror attacks and [Counter Terrorism] operations in 2023 — marking a record six-year
high”.Matters turned worse in the first half of 2024 with an exponential rise in militant
activities, particularly in KP and Balochistan. There are numerous factors or reasons
responsible for the revival of militancy and the state needs to adopt a comprehensive
approach to eliminate the menace/threat once and for all.
The Revival of Militancy in the Merged Districts:
There is a dangerous increase in the number of militants like TTP and other militants in South
Waziristan, North Waziristan, Aurakzai, Bajaur, and Teera region of Khyber, where Taliban
have established their training and recruiting centres mostly in the hilly belt once again. The
majority of attacks of TTP are against the military, paramilitary and police in these areas.

The Revival of Militancy in Banu Division:

District Lakkimarwat of Banu Division is the worst hit. There are repeated attacks in different
parts of the district against police and military troops. The suburbing/ surrounding areas of
Banu City, especially the ex-FR (Frontier Region) there are increasing number of militants in
the ex-FR region where they are attacking the military, paramilitary and the police.

The Revival of Militancy in Malakand Division:

There have been repeated attacks in Swat, Chitral, Upper and Lower Dir. Majority of these
attacks are being carried out by the Swat Chapter of TTP. Security forces are the prime
targets of militants.

The Expansion of Attacks in Other Parts of the Country:

There is a dangerous increase in attacks in Southern Punjab, primarily Mianwali, because it is
adjacent to Lakkimarwat. Attacks in D.G Khan and Bakkar as well as they are near D.I Khan.
Attacks in Islamabad, Faisalabad, Lahore and even Karachi as well. And most of these
attacks are being carried out by TTP and other terrorist organizations.

The Prime Targets of Militants:

1. Security Personnel of Pakistan are prime targets of terrorist organizations in KP and
Balochistan.
2. Chinese citizens are being repeatedly attacked, like in Dasu (Kohistan), Bisham,
Gwadar, Quetta, Karachi, etc., in which numerous Chinese professors engineers etc
lost their lives, The latest attack took place a few months ago, when a suicide
bomber rammed/very crowded his explosives-laden vehicle into a convoy/group
in a remote district in KP where a key dam is being constructed. As a result, five
Chinese workers were killed.This was the third major attack this year on Chinese
interests in the country.
3. Major targets are the developers of CPEC-based projects, primarily against Frontier
Works Organizations (FWO) and National Logistics Cell (NLC).
4. There are numerous attacks against the Shia population of Pakistan especially in
Quetta, Peshawar, Kohat and other parts of the country.
The Variety of Terrorist Organizations Operating in Pakistan:
1. The Terrorist Organizations using religion as a cover for their attacks. TTP is on the
top of the list. It’s compromised upon approximately 37 small groups, and having
presence in North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Aurangzai, Khyber, Momand and
Malakand division. Secondly, Qari Gulbahadur Group from North Waziristan is
responsible for majority of the attacks in North Waziristan and Banu Division.
Thirdly, Islamic State of Khurasan Province (ISKP) having basis in Afghanistan but
responsible for a series of attacks across Pakistan.
2. The Separatist Organizations in Balochistan. The most important group is Baloch
Liberation Army (BLA). The second most important group is Majeed Brigade, a
branch of BLA, comprised upon suicide-bomber specialists. Baloch Liberation Front
(BLF), Baloch Republican Army (BRA) are other militant groups.
All these militant groups are using Guerilla Warfighting techniques. They hide, hit
and run. They also make excessive use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED)(Road
side bomb blasts) and Suicide-Bombings.

Reasons for the Revival of TTP and Other Islamist Insurgencies:

1. The Victory of Afghan-Taliban against US and NATO troops encouraged TTP to
challenge the writ of the state in Pakistan once again. In spite of bringing more than
150,000+ troops, bringing all the possible military technologies to Afghanistan,
fighting the longest ever and most expensive war in the history of US and NATO. The
world’s strongest military machine i.e. US & NATO, failed to defeat Afghan-Taliban.
And after 2 decades of long fighting, power was handed-over back to Afghan Taliban.
This encouraged the Pakistani-based terrorist organizations like TTP and Gulbahadur
Group etc., to resume attacks against the Security Forces, Chinese, and other hard
(army) and soft (civilian) targets in Pakistan.
Furthermore, Pakistani Taliban have the leverage of using the bordering areas of
Afghanistan with Pakistan as a launching-pad for terrorist attacks in Pakistan.
Majority of the parts of the border of Pakistan with Afghanistan are still porous,
especially in the hilly-areas, and TTP and the rest of the terrorist organizations easily
cross the border and infiltrate into Pakistan. Afghan Taliban have got closer relations
with TTP and other Pakistani-based Taliban groups. Therefore, they are reluctant to
go for operation against Pakistani Taliban on Afghan Soil, and they have not been
able to stop TTP and other Pakistani Taliban from using Afghanistan as a launching-
pad.
2. The ambiguous policies of the Government of Pakistan have been responsible for the
revival of TTP and other insurgent groups. No government is ready to take the
responsibility and keep blaming each other for the flawed negotiations with TTP.
There are increasing number of speeches on the floor of the Parliament both by the
Opposition and the Government benches; the crux of which is Pakistan allowed TTP
and Gulbahadur Group militants to come back to their hometowns but without
weapons. Unfortunately, weapons were available in Pakistan in the merged districts in
Malakand division in abundance. Pakistani Taliban demanded the reversal of 25 th
Amendment or FATA Reforms Bill. They also demanded the control of the areas to
 be given to TTP. They also demanded the establishment of the Malakand version of
the Shariah Bill that was promulgated in 2008. Such demands were never to be
accepted by the government of Pakistan. Resultantly, terrorist TTP and other terrorist
organization started terrorizing Pakistan once again.
3. The serious loopholes in the Policing System and the overall security apparatus of
Pakistan provided TTP and other militant groups to come once again in Pakistan. Till
2018, there was no formal policing system in the merged districts. The Security
Personnels were not allowed to enter the villages and houses of the people as per the
then Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) System. In 2018, when the Police Act was
extended to ex-FATA, the local policing still does not enter into the villages and
houses of the people. Resultantly, they cannot implement the writ of the state.
Furthermore, they are not trained and equipped enough to fight such trained
insurgencies. Whenever military forces vacated specific areas after the military
operations, a policing vacuum was created there. TTP and other militant groups once
again entered and established their strong-holds in those areas. These Policing
problems are common across Pakistan, specifically in KP and Balochistan, that has
resulted in the spreading of militancy across the provinces. For Example, the CTD
department of Banu does not have its own building and has hired a private property.
4. The resurgence of militancy underscores serious flaws in our CT strategy. The latest
wave of terrorism has exposed the absence of a coherent policy needed to tackle this
existential danger.
5. It is not surprising that there has been an exponential rise in terrorism in Pakistan
since the Taliban returned to rule Afghanistan in 2022. There are reports of tacit
Afghan Taliban support for the TTP. The fact that the Kabul administration is not
taking action against TTP sanctuaries /protection or a safe place on its soil has meant
greater security challenges for Pakistan. The Russian Defence Minister also labelled
Afghanistan as a source of instability in Central Asia during a recent security meeting
in Kyrgyzstan.

Reasons for the Separatist Insurgency in Balochistan:

There are 2 major schools of thoughts regarding the separatist insurgency in Balochistan.
First and the Centralist school of thought gives numerous reasons for the insurgency in
Balochistan. First and the primary reason they give is: Baloch Sardars did not allow socio-
economic growth of their respective areas. The benefits given by the Centre to the Provincial
Groups were pocketed by these Baloch Sardars. This school of thought believes that clergy,
landlords, and the Tribal Lords are the major hurdle in the rise of the middle class or socio-
economic change. If the middle-class rises, the hold of these entities declines. They did not
allow the construction on educational institutions, health institutions and business
opportunities in their areas in order to hamper the rise of the middle-class.
These Tribal Sardars used their own Tribal Militia (armed group) against the State whenever
and wherever they wanted. There is a strong tribal system in Balochistan. Every tribe is
heavily weaponized. The tribes normally have conflict with other tribes i.e. inter-tribal
conflicts. Secondly, at times they have dispute with the state too. In such situation, the tribal
Chiefdoms used these Militias against the state whenever they wanted.
Thirdly, a series of Sardars of Balochistan established links with the intelligence agency of
India called RAW to get finance and weapons. To create unrest in Balochistan and keep
attacking the security forces and the state infrastructure like gas pipelines, electricity
transmission lines, railways etc. Kulbhushan Jadhav, the captured RAW Agent has made
confessional statements: RAW supports the separatist organizations in Balochistan by
providing funds and weapons. Afghan and Iran have been used as launching-pad for terrorist
attacks in Balochistan and Karachi. The prime objectives in these attacks are to sabotage
CPEC and destabilize Balochistan.
Second and the Federalists school of thought that support strong province system has a series
of objection on the Centralist that support that centre government. If Baloch Sardars were the
prime reason for insurgency in Balochistan, then why there are repeated attacks in District
Lasbellah where the Sardar the Jaam family have always been in the favour of the Centre and
Pro-state. Why there are attacks in Makaran Division where the Sardari system is non-
existent in many areas and weak in many more. It means Sardars system is not the main/only
reason for attacks.
If the Baloch tribes are weaponized, so are the Pashtoon tribes too. Illegal Weapons are
existent/available across the country including Karachi. It means the Baloch tribes and
Sardars cannot be held solely responsible. It has been primarily the policies of the state. The
policy of joining the Afghan-Jihad in the 1980s and War on Terror in 2001 have been the
prime reasons for weaponization of the Pakistani society. Weapons came from across the
world and mainly from Afghanistan. The same applies to the situation in Balochistan. The
real reasons for insurgency and instability in Balochistan are:
1. Alienation of the common public. The common people get aliened from the state
when their socio-economic rights are not being fulfilled. This is absolutely true in the
case of Balochistan. For example, Sui-Gas was explored in 1952 and was provided to
all the major parts of country, Punjab Sindh and KP, by 1960. But Quetta, the capital
of Balochistan got it in 1984. Sui area is still deprived of this facility. The reason
Centre gives for it that the cost of the pipeline is big in Balochistan while the number
of beneficiaries are less, because the population is dispersed. Majority of the areas do
not fall on the national criteria that ensures the construction of the pipelines.
Minimum threshold of the population is lesser than the standard the Centre has set for
providing pipeline. But there are atleast 20+ places in Balochistan which fall under
the criteria devised by the Centre yet they are still deprived of the gas facility.
Saindak Copper Mine Chaghi Balochistan was explored in 1996 by Chinese company
called MCC Metallurgical Company of China. The ratio distribution was 50% MCC,
48% Centre, 2% Balochistan. In 2012, this was revived. MCC was given 45%, Centre
50% and Balochistan 5%. Till 2000, there was only one public sector university, one
teaching hospital, in the whole province of Balochistan. While the average teaching
hospitals in other provinces is minimum 3. The number of educational institutions had
been less because the financial share of Balochistan has been considerably low. For
instance, in 1997, the PSDP of the whole province was 130 million while that of
Lahore alone was more than 180 million. Having lesser financial resources, it was not
 possible for the government of Balochistan to carry out the required number of
developmental projects. Such socio-economic depravations result into alienation from
the State.
2. The Rise of Armed Insurgency. When the socio-economic rights of the people are not
being fulfilled by the state, and when the state adopts coercive measures instead of
socio-economic engagement creates an environment for the rise of armed
insurgencies. Almost all the Baloch Nationalist leaders have this opinion. And the
held state responsible for the rise of insurgencies.
3. Invitation to a Foreign Power/ Foreign Involvement. When insurgency spreads across
an area of a country, it provides an opportunity for the foreign agencies to fuel up the
crisis. That is the case in Balochistan. RAW has been involved in supporting the
separatist organizations of Balochistan. This involvement of RAW is not the cause,
rather the effect of the flawed policies of the Government of Pakistan in the province
of Balochistan.
UNIP report 2024:
The United States Institute of Peace (USIP), in its analytical report released recently,
claims that terrorist threats from Afghanistan and Pakistan are increasing. The most
worrying part of the report is that Afghanistan provides a conducive environment for
terrorist groups. The Khorasan branch of Daesh has also been mentioned as a threat
beyond the region. According to the USIP, more than 20 terrorists wings, including
ISIS, are active in Afghanistan, significantly disturbing the security in the region.
Suggestive measures in the USIP report include: continuing to publicly pressure
Taliban to mitigate terrorist threats, and maintain communication channels, by
adopting a carrot and stick policy; developing a public reporting mechanism to
document and disseminate the Taliban’s compliance with the counterterrorism terms
outlined in the 2020 Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban; holding a
meeting of regional countries to codify the Taliban’s counterterrorism commitments
to each country, adding to the federal terrorism watch list, before sanctioning (under
US Executive Order 13324), Taliban leaders and personnel assisting terrorists in the
country; and increasing military and intelligence resources dedicated to
counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan but keeping them below the
withdrawal level

Solutions:
1. Intelligence-Based Operations (IBOs) is one of the viable solutions. Major operations
like Zarb-e-Azab, or Rah-e-Raast or others are not required right now as militancy has
not spread to that extent. Such operations have heavy economic cost on one hand and
massive social cost on the other, i.e. displacement of people. Intelligence-based
operations should gear up but such operations should be targeted, precise, that do not
result in collateral damage or the displacement of the locals and separation. The
security forces and government need to restore the confidence of the common public
of the warzone areas, which could only be done when their areas are being cleaned
without displacing or harming them.
2. A need for a comprehensive strategy to wipe-out militancy one and for all.
 i. Police Reforms: Increase in the number of police, sufficient funds, and the
required weapons. This would enable police to fight the insurgent groups in a
much better way.
ii. Negotiations with the insurgent groups should not be negated at all. There
would always be a group of people within the insurgent groups who would be
tamed and convinced to drop weapons and join the mainstream. This would
happen only when they are socio-economically benefitted.
iii. A grand strategy for de-weaponization of society. Starting with merged
districts, KP, and Balochistan. First option should be volunteered dropping
and handing over of the weapon and such people should always be financially
benefitted. Secondly, search operation. It is a tedious and time-taking process
but Pakistan does not have the option of not adopting the policy.
iv. Socio-economic development.
v. Institution Building.
3. In 2024 “reinvigorated and re-energised national counterterrorism [CT] campaign through the
launching of Operation Azm-i-Istehkam, with the consensus of all stakeholders including the
provinces, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, symbolising the national resolve to
eradicate extremism and terrorism from the country”.