CHAPTER.

Section 2.1
;.4w, "-48

t.
a.- s : { 1 324, 1342. 1 423
^ t 432, 231 4, 2341, 2q 3. 243 1 . 3 *ffi4w,
fuqH,+tzt
4123. 4132, 321 4,
3241 - 4213- 4231 i ,.,="
'
,,,..,i

b. Everrr A co.'niains rhe ouicorles ,.r.here 1 is llr

-
. A- i 1321.134).1423,1432))
c. llvent B contains the outconles u,hcrc 2,:isJirSi
2 ot'sccond:
Ii ; 2-111.i-r.il 2{i.r. lr-11. -tlt+. 1t41.+)l:,.i::t
d. 'fhe compor-rnci ei,cnl Ar-,i3 conta.{ns
lptiitcomes in A or B ol both:
A t-,8 = t1 321. 1342, 1 423. 1 432 *];ffiM;41, 241 3. 243 1, 321 4, 3241. 421 3, 423 1 )
-, . ,,:!a
T
|!.a?tv//tfi,,. ltll
=
-=
=t
,,
L'
d*.&
,,.
'''':F
3
fr
= a, l:r'errr A -- I RRR, l_l L.S$p,:r"-.
=-
=*- b. Evenr B: I RLS,
-R,SfUIRVLSR.
tr$'m SRL, SI-R l
-"+. F
b. *44,-
= h
V'
%
*afff
"5w

=L=
=- c. Event C: RRI{ftfW'KLR. RSR. LRR, SRIr l
I
q'r-
=
-*-. d. EveIII D = I4BT I*RS. RLR. RSR. I RR, ST{R, TI It. LLS. LRL..LSL, RLL, SLL; SSR
-- ssL. sRLSI.$R$S,lss I
-
-=- e. Cr.,u&.&,ri,,, oulcolnes wlrcrc all cars go thc sarne dilection, or they all go different
-- dirp6tior&
a;r efltioft*+
=
-.- Pffin.
%€d
LLt, sss. RLS. RSI-. LRS,rsR, sRL. sLR l

ause Event ? totally encloses Event C, the cofnpound event CuD = D;

ffi"ru
6% Using sirnilal reasoning, rve s€e that the cornpourrd errent CnD:
W C:
- CnD : { RRL, RRS, RLl1, RSR, LRR, SRR l

#
\\<
t1\<
{1e.-\<
f:" -!
t-l
\
-q
J
"-r

a. EventA= { SSf, SFS, FSS }

Chapler2; ProbabilitY'

J
b. Evcnt B = { SSS, SSF, SFS, FSS }
{\.,-'9.'"
position),,tfien rt
c. For EYenr C, the syslcrn rnusl haYe compot.lcn-t I $ orkinS ( $ 1n ftr&first
lear.r one oJ rhe orher l\\ o components nrusr rr ork (at'lei1i'tr4e Sfi-, tle 2"d and 3'd

positions: Event C = i SSS, SSF, SFS j . ;'nn,,* "t

,'
d. Event C' : i SFF, FSS. FSF, FFS, FFF ) i;='':;1W
EVCNT AUC: { SSS, SSF, SFS, FSS } i!
":*'1=
AnC
Everrt nr
Lvlrtt iV : i{ Jur SFS
SSF., vr v }
_t ',: .,,:'
1,,..='''f;.r,,
..:.aal1ja.,
:i-,,,,i::"':t',
BuC = i SFS" FSS .l
Event SSS. SSF. \:
Eyent BnC: { SSS SSF. SFS I u' ,.,,=""-

j
-
[h*,. ,r*
4. 'i: i
$ih
,i "n

I I omc N4 ortsae,e l{ffi nlre r

'Outcorrre | , 2'"-7' 4
F
F
=
F
l: ;
I,u
;r
'164""
::i!4il
.YI-,,
i,,
''1r"'-

\/
i,v
F
F
F

Ir J
il.J
^.
i l--* .d \/ F

F F F
%.tols -v F F
VF F

J
&w VF
*
,# ".w-
* VV F F
ffi^
w
l4l V \i Ij
'@#^ffi'%,
%"*# lsl v
I

\7 F

.&l6lvv "l
-l
@t_.
"&

:l-l
flB
Wtcotne nulnbers 2, 3, 5,9
''%,
ffi
W & Outcomenurubers l, 16
W
.H
J
d. Outc0lnenutabers 1,2,3, 5,9

e. either all of the tllortgages ale variable.

lu wor.ds, the UNION described is the event tlrat ,l,2,3,5,9,16.
or that at most all.of them ar:e valiable: outconres The INTERSECTION
dqsq-ibed is fhe evint that all of the rnortgages 1r.e fi1e!: ol-r.orr.
- I,
f. The UNION clescLibecl is the event that eit.her exactly lht'ee are fixed, or thatall four ire
the sarne: outconres 1,2,3,5, q 16. The IN'IERSEC1'ION in rvot'ds is tlie everrt
that
(Thele are no
-l
exactly tht,ee are fixed AND that'all four are the.sdrn€. This cannot happen.
oulcotnes in cotllnioll) '. b r: c - A. =
 l

- lt I
112
. 113
121
12.2
'123
'7
131
1)Z
t-)-)

212 , ', i;i

= ,ls
213 n,rn&r*)"
221 ,{,**,,3
222 ,i p
223,,::,*.'7rrr*lr
/-"L).. .:
-t! !:

1fu,,;;;',,,0.:,,
il32'+,t,

313
321 '
322
#24 323 '
- q6) 33r

{6ry#
,.w*
zo 332
qwlt*-# ^-
)7 I

I
JJJ
. B
fh,*e#a_
--%
g@ Outcolle Nurnbers 14,21
w
ffi {3q
ffqOutcorneNurnters 8,72,16,"
qru Outcorne Nurnbers

3,7,9,19,

'%
 _GI

Chantu2:
.ChaPter 2: Prob.abilitv.
erobaLility.
Probability
.
i'J
--
a-
.I
Outcome
Nurnber Outcome
I 123
2 124
J 125
4 213
5 214
-)1{
6
'1 13

-8 14_
9 l5
-i0 73
ll 21
12 25
13

14 ;
15 5

b, Outcotrtes

c. OLrtcorres 3. 6,

d. Outcornes 10, 11,

A,
. S: TBBBMA,MBBABA,A.A,I]BAABAA, BBAAABA, BBAAA'AB' BABBAAA'
B AA I] A..BABAAAB, BAAB BAA, BAABABA, BAABAAB,
AB,,\B,S@ffi
BAAA8I&MTBhAABAB, BAA,,\ABB, AI]B B AAA, ABBABAA. AB BAABA,
neP'&aaelABABBAA. ABABABA- ABn BAA& ABAABBA' ABAABAB,
ABAA,^ftB. AABI]BAA, AABBABA. AABBNN B. A,\BABBA. AABNBNB.
rW*,bge, anasesa, AAABBAB, AAABABB, AAAABBBI
h a,f
7&

BBB, AAABABB, AAABBAB, AABAABR, AABABAB]

ffi "\
wry
ffi"%, >
# %"
W ->=

- !
-- =
 1I

L- !
I

u
i

::i:i::: =
#
::3
#
\3
,4
L-- J

{--
 Chapter 2: Probability

d.

- i{.*t

-v. -.,:
':.!
q

tJ
, ,:.
;'4
) X-,- *"i
i.:

&.,.,,&i ,:
.,-41

e. A; t -r (Ar.:- -{.) +
t ::a
.x.:

E--
iffil+:1r?4glu$S-
$.--
Yr.. X

#-'
J
J
B,
w!
,#**
#'b
ga
W

"
-l
##
.&^,
'4w,,d#

*
%

=
.J
J
S4
=.

=
L
= I

E-.-.
=
=
T v.

=-
I
-.
and stripes. These tu,o diagrams display the sarne area
=-
-.
=
-=
=-
I
=,
-

-''{r
b. -Inthediasranrbelon,.theshadeda:.a,eprese,tts(ArB)'. Usingthegliagrrurontlieright
above, tlie union of A' and B' ;s lgpresented by the aleas thal harre'e ither:shatlirry or
sti-ipes'or both. Both of

10.
{Plyrn, Chrysl are three mutually

b. No, let E: {Chev, Pbnt}, F : {Pont, Buickl, 6 : {Buick, Fordl. These evelts are not
rnutually exclusive (e.g. E and F have an outcolle in comuron). yet thele is r.ro outcorne
Fg cornnron to all thlee events.
a
F
t=
fI*\.t
f\.\-
 \'".

\
L\

u]-
\]\
Section.2.2 F
11. \
.0'7
-4.

b.- l5 r 16 i .01- 30
\
c. Let event A :
selected custorner ou,ns stocks. Then r selected \
customer not own a stock can be represente
does_
P(A'): 1-P(A): 1 - (.18 + .2-s)= t - .43: .s7. also have bcen done easil-y-
r=
C
by-a<iding thcplobabilities of the lirnds that a

r]
l'2.
r]*
.u.

l}-'

13. hw
arvarded either #l orgf prffin>' - -a_

P(A1,; Ar):P(Arqrs#dl- P(.A,rn .\)=.22+.2s - .t r =.36

M \_
arvalded lrcithcr
.. _.*l &AZ: .'w
-]'](A 1' n Ar')-P[(A i-u., er)'] -- I - P{Ar u Az): t - 36: .-64'
*'w^ I L-
awarded diffEEstrinc of # l, #2. sl:
yff:%nr) : P(A,) + P(A2) + l'(A:)- P(A1 n Az) - P(Ar n Ar) -
%k
P\.\ t L
P(A2nA3)+P(Arn A2n A3)
: .22 +.25 + .28 - .fi -.05 - .07 + .01 : .53
none of the three projects: L
r'r-, Az'rl A3'): I -P(awardedatleastone)= 1-.53:.47.
t
rded +l but neither #1 not'#2:
n Au' . A; ):.P(A:)-P(A1n,A3)- P(A2 n_A;)
L
+P(Arn 42n ,A3)
= .28 - .05 - .07+.01 = .17
.>
p.1
I

I
t'
!-

F
r:iq
 T
,--;
I

=,

.f. either (neither #l nor #2)'or #3:

' P( Ar' l- Az1) ? A;.1 :-P{shaded region).: p(awarde-d none)-+ p(Ai)
-:.41_ 28=.75
.

'::""' -t4 '/L

Alleinativel\'. answers {o a - fcan be{ob.t*iriEd {r'om plobabilities on tl.re acconrpanf ing

Venn dia-erant
i;I -

*j6'
"F #F-
%....e- \.

eF@^
%, *#
_* '4,
ES
drw
rc.9
#%e'
ff
%,8
,M.-
-@

oo
a+-
iq I
-j I

r,\ l

.t I

!
-l
l

b
l

u-t-t'
'l
l

t
:

r]*.-
--j

S
)

tl-
L
I,s.
I et evcnt E 1-.e the event tl-t
E' ;"
L
a t a t -le ar s t
tth
h r cl r a si:
!u,o-pur.cl'rasgr€
lrvo-pu .
{€tw'f{ drve rs
_ t(,.r I P(E)-r*:ff
Let e\/ent A -bc tlre ev$t ffiat all five pur-chase gas. Let event B be the s1;gtr1 that all f ive :

p ulcha se e I ec tri';ffljt{1cl poss ib Ie outconres a r e those in u,hich al least one o1'each

tvpe is purchastiJ."{hus, the desiLe9 pr-obabilitr -
i- P(A) Plefi 1-.116-.005-.S7e - :

. '-'#ww
16. +
g"&
%.,1t

a. Thcffip sffi siuiple events, corresponding to the outconres CDP, CPD, DCP, DPC, PCD, -!
ftr
a:=.

r> :

t:tn
:

uH
.l g
:,€
i2 \

an
I t,
. a'. The.probabilities-do not add, to 1 because there- ai-e other softrvare'packaggs besides'SPSS
'

{ --and SAS for which requesls could be maile.

lrr
2

18. 1-his situafion requires the coutplenlent-concp.,$[.' I 11&only way 1or the. oesll-co event r\v r
heppen r. il a:i W bulb is selecred Jrrsr. Lrt#* O pe that a ?5 \\'bulb is selercte.l l'irst-
and P(A) : f . f tren the dcsile d er e rtt is"er'EhfA'.

So P(A') : I
,rtre

{"=ru"'?
, 19. Lct event A be that the se lebtedljpi,rtintas found defective by inspectol A P(A) : ffi t-tt
;#.j,'S " '#
r". /i
ei,enr B be analogous tbr-in#gt&$rB.'P(R) ---## . Conrpound event A uB is the event that
,, P(AuB):
the selected loint u,as t'qffin A-ftctive by at least on. of the lrvo inspectols. *ffi
."ffiuB)',
The desir'ed lo we use the'complement lule:
-l'
P(AuB)-='t -P(A,3) iffi-- ffi'= $s4t

b. r ne acs@ir is B n A'. P(Bo A'):P(B) - P(A n B).

:*P(A) - P(B) - P(Au B),
j AB)*6=.0714 +.0751 -.1159=.0i16
P(A
.*' "Ee-
"ft 'e'L ^11/
j@ '

S HBd. A'): P(B)- P(A n B)

%."* *# - .075 t .03 t6 = 0435
,,,%.
*
',
S2 and S3 r'eplesent tlte su'ins and night shifts, respectively Let: Cl and C2 replesent
unsafe conditions and unrelated to conditioni, rtspectively.
Tlre simple events are {Sl,Cl l, {Sl,C2}, {S2,Cl}, {52,C2},{S3,C1}, {s3,c2l

b. P({Cll):P({S1.Cl},{S2,Cll,{S3,Cl})=.10+.08 * .os : zt
#
c. P({Sll'): I -P({Sl,Cll, iS1,C2}): 1-(.10+.35):.55
*
*
L-
F
 -:

sr
ChaPtef2: ProbabilitY -
_J
I

'
f's$..re
3.
,!.,a$,i?

g.fr +p,nbered I
corrrputs*'ffi|nau"d - 6 as d'.':liL'1 Also
descilbed assu'1ne II
that coltlputers \\--
-
"-
Assuine that the
re correputgfs " ::l:",i):Y]:111':"1]fi':;'
,6)(2'3)(2.4)(2'5)(2'6)
and2alerher.o,"f.. i,"A*g..pt"onlcsare(1,2)(1,3)(1,4)(1,5)(l
(3,4)(3,5)r:,oir+,iiHagi#{or
-%
L--
-'
a. P(botharelap-tops;iht{(1,2)ll:-*:967.
-
b' ,r:rWW')=P[{(],4)(3's)(3'6)(4's)(4'6)(s'6)ll- *:40' \-
g-w^
c. pfa*a.aihre desktop): 1 - P(no desktops)
t--:
{"ffi I - P(both are laPtoPs)
%*d :l:.067=.913
B:
@a "1&

ffi ptfrrcurt ol,. of "'"h type): 1 - P(both are the same)

= i-r(uott',1aptops)-P(bothdesktops) :
-ddfuM"
ffi % l-.067_.40-.s13 .\
w
tr%
\:

t
1
 tt

=t
=
E

I=,
-E
Chspter 2: Probability

.A
L.1.. Since A is contained in B, theh B can be *iiti., as the union of A anri
1(Bn A'), tu,o mu{ually_exclu$iveevents.- (Seediagram), -

-
*r*%1
Aiiorir 3, P[A u (B n A')] : P(A) + P(B n-A ' ). $.r"6$t i tut ine P(B).
Fron.r
P(B): P(A) r P(B n A') or-P(B) - P(A) : P(B n ') , Ftoni Arion_i l.
P(8. A') > 0. so P(B) > F1a)o. p(A) < )r'al events A and B. P(A,r B)-< P(A).
and P(A u B) > P(A).-

4g
,,<
P(A r-, B).=' P(A)+ P(B).-
'>i 'l1gn P(aull)- .ft '&

P(A t 1 C)'=-.60
' ^:*'"':"
P(A,^ B rr C) : P(Au
ffi@L I-
B t-,C)-#(Al%- P(B)

.:98-J- + .55 + .60

1,,
-1? oF

=d

-?
=

=
=-
=v
a
=
=-
-tE

=
=--
-.q
B
-\r1
\Y c. P(only autonratic llansnrission selected): .03 from the Venn I)iagrarlt
trb\q
d. P(exactl1, one of the tlu'ee) = .93 + 08 + .13: .24
Y
F
l\q
tE
f
r\- .<F

t
\-
 r{
*l
.-l
-l

tn,e)-fa.c,) (A,q) (A'l') (ll'A) fb"dlt dlti f

27. outcomes: u'''l
(cl,A) (c1,B) (cr,C:) 1C,'t'i'1c{;4"1e1p) (c2,cr ) (c2,1')
-
- (F,A) (F,.B)(F,C|) (i,C:)
-* -
: - * ='t
-P[(A,I])or(B,A)l i
a. .,:.:*,,,,1+

b. P(at ieast ohc C) : rl- : 1,,'= 'l :

-1. t:nfrffi w"i'{#

c. P(a1 lca-.it i5-yeals) -- 1 - 1'(a1.f1ffiti41Bl

v*' -ve ars)
=l - ptt-.0) or (6,3) oL (3.7) &;t ,tlor (-1' )0) or ()0'3) or ((r'7) ot'(7'6')l

?.
*z".ff ..r'
There ate 27 cqually lilfuly'tfridonies' .-
28.
- a. P(allthe r,,,,',.t-ffiffi or Q'2'2)or tj'i'Jll - * =. ; L
w
,i
b.
e-
p(ai most 2 *Fe#.#g"dd ro rhe sarre slarion) = I * P(all
D/^ll
3? are the sar.ne) e-
= l_ I
'r;w ryz*#l q
-'a
^{q j* t-
#s.,
#*\^.
c. ptr}fliiihent) - I i(1.2.1) (l'3'21 (2'1'3)
(2,1,1) (3'i'2) (l'2'l)ll
--d!- e'Lg
;w'-
g
M
gM,
ffi5&
"%d#

trw
%d

:
i
,H
-:
t\i
 \

L
L
='
E-.

_
tiit-

?q _ ttu#A
*"4#

a. -(5)(4)
: 20 (5 choices for president, 4 rerniin for vice presi.l"niit '3#
..,
t "'$' -,j
4/!!4r

b. (5X4X3): 60
/
f5 t--\
sr
c.
))
\-,/ ?r1r

-q.
3 0-.
fr. Because order is impbrtant, we'll use Ps r - p(&q:p36
*_.
- ,li.r;,2r,,.-

t -
b. O.de. doe sn't rxatter hele- so we use C;y,,gq 593J75

i8
c. Fr.om each group \\'e choose 2:
l9
1,, 1.tF
\'1
;L:;g2::?4WX'@
83. I 60
d. The nuinerator coires fi'orn tr tl denorriinato-r fi'onr perr
ff'a.akd rhe b: .t+
?
ffi-
;.- ;. ,r. thd sarre rle iri part d. We can havc all zilrfandel, all nterlot, or all
cabemet, so P(all same ) P(all rn) + Pi311 .;
+ :

tt62 :.002
\q7 7'.7\

31.

#
tr
-,-=

L=
f
t-4
 I
t"q
\
F
ChaPter 2: ProbabilitY }--r
S-
'-
a. 5x4x3t4=244
,!"' n@
I!\,,$&". :
q. .lx lx3x4 = 12 d"?4i",'
!.
' "

c. 4x3x3xl: 193 r{! '""#

' :.
- )::
!:::4 "t
d. # with at least on Son.v - total # - # u'ith no Sony -249'' 16;1 132
.j-1i
t:' 4!.\'
... :;:
:
.- P(at leait one Sotiy.l:' # = -5S ...{i;i1',f' \*
P(exactly-one Son-v) : P(cul-1'' Stin-r' is lecelr ci-):!'7;.'' ,*u ,
r I,(only Soff$' CD pla.""er)
- PlonlYy8qnY iffdeck)
:,
1x3x3x3+ 4x 4x3x3xl 21 +36+36
------*-
^'ln
tat, -2a
+--
210 244
1,
-li
OO ,.
At) e +rirrq.T
"-1+-lJ
210
L1V t, 'i
x
-
iL "*
\
...,,r,''r,..r*,,,r,/'

*13.
/t<\ 1(r ,i*:b
l"-l- tt' - sdrfn.'" -.
a.
isl
\",i
sr2of
'*fu
ti, *!*.,
0l i*%t;.",'
zi. .4
&
ru
b.-
(:),['; 0 S
Is][u) S
,+ll r l
c. Pffi#A 4 have
"W
&.w
B
cIacKS) - ----r =-=- -
r,'l
1 190
s3.130
:.022
+
,M (5, ::
,&w
#M
W P(atleast
#w "%".
#&
6B
4): P( exactly 4) + P(exactly 5)
S
k1 (:)(';)
"w
Iil'])
-T{- = .022+.001 =.023
Gs) -
i,.J IrJ - .=\=-
i:
i:
>drr
 f

'(zo
t-
(b
I
I
=38-,760.

_b.

:J
--t
:= c.

:,
-= -d.

-=
--t
=
lEri.-r
-Y

:=-b-
=
. - -
=fui-
-
+=
=

=
--"=
-
=
:-,
=+.a,
-
+?
. W (2s\ f30) f3s). f10) fl s) /20\
:===:::
-l"#
\3 I'uJ IuJ
::i:ii::::ii:

*\:? IrJ - [,,J-[,,J

-
''
Gr\ r+-s) Zrl Crl
So P(A I U' Ar -' A.r) - ?4s\
Cil rrrtltt
qtF
Io ) [oJ
Iu.] \6) loJ
2939- '00s4:2885
[oi .6'
1.6, (6)
l6] ,.6.,) .0,

L_=
{
l- -FI
\J
J
I'
J
-l
Chapter 2: ProbabilitY

:-l
J
}.l
36.
=l
=l
1 2 drfferent runs. so the
-l
125. 'lhus the desired
=J
=l
-J
-J
38.
'--l
r 6)r e)
tllt
'r2-)'rl l'
ilr\|
=-
J 5
45s
9-
= .2961 .l
Lrl r-
1

roi.rrl.fu' a:
'(3, (3' (3J 4+10+20
ww
b,xm#hllrhr. 'ee ale the
ffi
sat-t-t L/
/ts) ' 455
.>
&W
w% [,.]
{w&"
c. l4)rs
lll
)lo'
il
t2o
l-.......-- =.2637 i>
il)(r J(rl- +.ss
L-
6b

.-
tu I
L*
u
, -Chapta 2: Probability

d. To examine exactly one, a 75 watt bulb rnust beehosen first. (6 ways to accornplish this).
- - To exarninci exactl-v'tu,oi \\iGlnust c-hoose anolher wattage first,.then a 75 rvatt. 9 x 6,-
_(
=--
=r ways)- Follow;ing'tlrepattell.fol'exactlytlree.gx 8x 6rvays; for four,9 x $x f-x S;

=
T
fo1!ve,9 x 8 x ] x 6x 6..
4.
t-
---

!- 1--
215 x14xl-3x12x 1l

: r - [.4 + 2511+ tisz +.0923 + .0503]

|- .95',79 - 012 r

39.
a,

.\sr JU I Lrl u!)rrL" 1,,*Lrnr",,) ,. ,",

'LUE..
ILt s I
,, 3003

-.'l.o4
''+f l l0l
" b"4. a*
b, lsolating one g,oufu,3*-tgfi"
gioufu, ?fu,gfr" coldless
cordless phones. ureu,e rvant the other two groups leplesented in
the last 5 servic@e choose 5 of th_e l0 others, except that rve don't u,ant to include
the outcoures r,r,Jre relpre lasl five are all the sante.

1
-L

But we have three groups o1'phones, so the desired plobability is

15

iffi'
ll i ?
I I

Ltrl') 3(2so) .: .2498

(t s) 3ool
t_t
[5,,
c, We wanl to choose 2 of the 5 cordless,_2 of the 5 cellular', and 2 ofthe corded phones:
/1 )ts)I s\

f
I, h] rJ rooo_
1 998
,,

5oG-
fr-
L= 't
6,,

{
L-
 -Chapter 2: Probability

44.
If the A's are distinguishable flom one anothqr", and similarlyfor thq B's, C's- and D's,
' then theie are l2l Possible chain moleculds. Six of tl.rese are: .&
A A2A r BrCrC r D3 C.' D I D2 83 B 1, A1 A j A 2 BzC:C r Dr Cz Dr D, B €^d'
-f
A2A 43 82 C3 C1 D3 C2l) I D2 83 B 1, A 2 A 3 A r B: Ct Cr D CzD I D2B&B,q.. I
1

A 3 A I A2B2 C3.Cr D3 C2 D I Dz B-, Bt, A 3 ,A2 A B2e3C I D3 C2DpjBiB ffi

1

These 6 (-li) aiti.,:ontyu,ith respect to or*ering of the J A-'{QIn'p€neral. groups of 6

is differcnt. When the A subscripts are suppressed, ea_Ch gtoup of 6"collapses" into a

single molecule (B's, C's and D's are still distinguis$qlei fit tfris point there are
* rrolecules. tS E's, C's and D's in turn giles
molecules. Noiv suppressing subscripts on tlg|B"i's-{}t gives
'& ?:

-
ultinratelr' l*
(i!-= 369,600 chain molee ules. ;;\,w""""' . -
w::?:*,!i
#. "\s-
b. - Think of the group of 3 A's as a single en6iq. an&similarly-foithe'B's, C's. and D's.
Then there are 4 | Ways to order these ent**ffiand thus 4! Nlolecules in which the A's ale
conliguous, the B's, C's and D's are {l#,fr{r*, P(a.ll.together):
--!=-
I 6q.b 0t =
0000(rJ91

,ll.
?. P(at least one F arnong
t- ^j,,
''rr{'
I'.i-ti+ I #(no F's arlong l''
4x3x2
" - -1- 24
3)

-' =1-.a714=.9286
J
^*,,,,{ -l-'
ytt".' 8xJx6 336
Arl ncthoilfp gdlculate-P(no F's arnong l''
A.n altclnative methodfp 1'' 3)
rvoukl to.troosphqsffif
,vould be to fernales and 3 of the 4 males, as follo.,r's.
choe,$phlaxs%f the feurales
(4\(
IilI?
4'.*" 1
lll-l
f 01,3) *,^
I#***d
I;"3'd .01\4, .p
w l4 .obvioustyp'oducing
(s)- WF6" '"" --'.'
obviouslyproducing th.su,n.
the sarne ,.sutt.
'esult.
Id'%
%% ,'4)r4)
&
',ffi l'r
l+li rl
5): ' .'\ ' =
4
=.0714
w P(allF'sarnons
(8) s6
#% l-l
Y@#k
W \5.r

c. P(orderrngs ale different) = I - P(orderings are the sarne for both semestet's)
- = I - (# olderings such that the olders are the same each senrester)/(tota] # of
possible ordeliltgs for 2 sernesters)
8x7x6x5x4x#I2x1
=,- (8x7x6x5x4x3x2xlx)x(8x'l x6x5x4x3x2xi)''
=l-.ggggrSrO
"

\.:t
 \
,4
--
L
L:

Seats:
[J ri-l
Ll-ll= | trtrtr
Zxlx 4x3x2xl I
-6x5x4x-li2rl 15

\\re count the # of r.,,avs ef no H nerl to his \\'as f

- + if orderinp rvithout a II-W pair in seats ;l anci HnexttohisW_6*x,lx l* x ?+
\ l'x I -=48
t: pu,l-, " put the rna te cf scat " 2 here
=in't
2a'x"2'x

I
And J,(no H nexl to his W) =- = -. so
1x3x2x1 3
.).
P(at )east one H rrext :--La
J

43:

lp
t{"

L=
{_^
 Chapter 2: Probability

k](n - k)\
At
'* -t
The nu,nber o[subsets Of iize k = the rtutnber olsubsers olsize r-"0.*04"\is.
to each suhset ol' .--
a
Dlz! k
size A there
tlru L corresponds vlrsvL-r/ one subset of size
vurlvolJvrruu eract-ly n-k (the-n-k g"bi.*itgfri the subset
in of
'-r-\ *L' #k "..d
-..#
nr3
1*'
''Ai::'t'

100 '
trIA t/te 200..,^r## t{
tp(\-/a
h. PiA,(r - _
)I w)
L
') - 'Lvt)"
't-\t\r" - J00 lliio.e
= .400-
- ti.r. knorv
.f
(hat
krrorv that -.r i,r,,cr cante
" theL- indilidual , rr.p fi'ont
indiridual(rrrre ",r.";, -
ethnie
,,^^, ethnic
lionr |
- '-- !-
nrobahilitv rhat lie ha&,fiide A blood is a0. P(CIA) =
gr.orrp3,theprobabi1itythathefiafff€AbloodIS'4U.P(L|A)=.1......'-> '" -" I
P(A r:C) has type A brood, rhe probabilir-v that he is
='290 : .4q"1i;';.,.",r Ja
P( A) .441 ,s ''e ,, " ' I
, fiorn ethnic group 3 it,%rfl"@*

d" d >l
selee ted;
c. Define evenr D = lfficgfoupp I selectedl . We are asked P(Dtl]'t :=
lor P(DIB')
askecl for
|
P(B)=
pr B') .5dp -
' "r -iol"*t'+'Wsl='eos - '=l
;3{
d-%#
'%,YBvw
.-
II
1&
{o'
46- fu
-Let evelil,&nrt the individual is rl.^- A
,-^.6 than
:. rnore tqll Let
leet tall.
6 feet I €r event
evenl B tlral th'
he that
R be the individual is I

;:;#-b'[,";i;fi;;.;:ilJ""; i;;: ,;.'o,"o,o',,,, or rhe individuar being rnore t=j

' individual is a prolessional basketball plaver', ana
i.*4,;,;;;;;r;;,";.
rr,n,,%
P (B I R):
I
r@ability of the in-itiv;auat being a,prof'essional b.asketball player', knowing that the .{
dfihiria,]ut is rnore than 6 t'eer rall. P (A I B) will be lalger. Ivlost professional BB players are i
E"W 6 feet
,fur.ffiT, the pr obability of an individual in"that reduced sarnple space being more than to the -- i
fl ffif tl.rr,,urgr. The nunbel of individuals that are pro AB ptaye.s is s,nail in relation i-f
' W #of nrales rnore than 6 feet tall.
I
I
. "Pv.ffi . I

.}

.+
J I

I
.

, 1\
=-
R.
=
=,
=
:,
--
=
=L_
--
=
---

DT
trt B)l
e. P(A lAuBl= I ='Jo =.'.7692
B) .65

48.

l4
tt
Also notice that the intelsection of the two events is just the I evelrt, sirrce "exactly one''
- is totally contained in "at least orre,"

=
f
b--.
So f[(exactly.one) I (at least one)]=
{#
3514

t\-- ^r
d. l lrc pieces of tlrrs equation can be found in yourans\vers toe.lelcise 26-(section
' P(A:l A,^ Ar) : P{1' q 4'': a\l=
2 ,).

lP P(A, o A.)
+
.06
='833
L.--
 t'"-l
-l
J
J
49. - The first desired probability is P(both bulbs are 75-rvatt I at least one is 75 rvatt).
t-
J
P(at least one. is J5 watt). -= I - P(none a1e 7-5 watt). .-l
- / o\-
)
I I
|t.2',
-'l
{"'%*
",0{*i
*iltfl J
J
i6
' (rsl -'
, \ / _ 1
ros ,;rq J
6%#%,
-''t tutr4"

l'
Nor i.. that P[ (both ar., : *atr.fi1
/6\
at.
lrl
'', /.)

least one is 75 u
:
ar r)14

ui,-
,:

*r'
'':

",]'*"L' "
'! -

J
I-i
I I ' tr " ",*
"
_-l
--P(brrllrare:5watt, r,"*i"-
*=+-
(ls
/ l(,
Il"-,
l',) I
lo.i
ln< +.

-l
"
i 15 -.l
+r
l0-5= Ir
ln(
: :* Il
-.,+*,
So P(both bulbs are 7-5 rvatl i at least o,kg ;s"u1S watt )
69 -69= 2114
,..' >r I

-..rr;.
Second,wewantP(same,x;"ffi,pi4toneNoT7-5rra1t).
;
105
.-
ai I
nl' H
P(at leasf one NOT 75 rvatl) are 75 rvatt)
'"I.
",#++@otn

,f"t): :,-'5r. .\n

=;;"]
eo j

-W
',u l 05 =
105 I

Norv. p[(sarr,. ,u,,nr)^di-or. ,.,o, zs : l:rt",,, -:o':,, or both no *att) tj

.q 'vattj]
- /r\ /r\

16
+i
105 ..-
i

-:;
3r
t6 l

.1718
90 --
+'\i

50.
P(M n LS n PR) = .05, directly fror.n the table of probabilities
a:"
(
b. lou
h.P.9= P(M,'Pr,lS) + P(M;Pr,SS)= .A5+-o7:'12

P(SS) = s'un1of 9 probabilities in SS table: 56, P(LS) = 1= s6: !4 .\r

a. P(M) = .08+-07+.1 2+.10+.05+.07 = .49 L:d

P(Pr) = .02+ 07+ 0-- 02+.05+ 02 = .25 :

.-:llrj
 .T
:

:-'
:

Chapter. 2 : Probability -

r (DD (- \ r.t ) -.v+ -r .vo -r .vJ

{...b,-

^ ^.^^:.-- P(ss aM-r-t.Pt) .08 ^^*idY

PiM a Pl) .08 +.10 *r,,
A
P(LSll\4 Pl): I : P(SSIM PD = I - .444= .556 '1 ''i ,,

i_
.J
I
5r. -?.j
#'u
i. ,.'

-- a. PtRtiornl''nRfiorn2ni ) Rfi'om2'd,*ffi', .P( Rao:n1':

P( r

-J : 8 -:- 6''o''*.-^.-
""
-.I1., I0 t= .4-i6
!
E

-;J
I
b. P(sarne numbers) :.P(both ,.t..ied Siiji are the samc color)

<
1

. =:; ::L''
Ptbotlr red) + P(botlr creen) = .436 -
4o 4 - .s81
:J
I I I -lo
't'
,.J
i --*t ,,.^^'
=
-[-et
52. A; be thc event that A2 be the event that #2 fails. \Ve assutte that P(A 1):
t-
=J
- P(Az): q and that P(A '(Az I Ar) = r'. Then one apploach is as follorvs:
=

P(Ar nA2)=P(A2l 1)=rq=.01

--
=q
- l(Ar-rA:)=f(A1n,
=={ Tlicse trvo.'equaqns eyi Zq-..01 = .07. froin-rvhich q:.04 and r 25. Altelnatively. rvlth t
--
=
: P(A r'r- ArHP(kdfi A2') , t-+ .01 + t = .07, irnplying t = .03 and thus q : .04 rvithout
>'.
=
=Y
!

--. ail PtB)

, WB(q
i *
*m P(A). P(A)
(1ince B is cor.rtained in A, A n B= B)

ffi05
E
**.
"*
-aw .o',0
:J
{&- "
F
WG

a
s

F
 q
-'t \lJ
-J
T- I
I
Chaptei 2:'Probability - -

'P(Al) :.22,P(A):.25,P(A3)=.28, P(Ar ria2)=,ll,P(Ain Al):.05,f(Az nA:):-.02,

P(A1r-rA2.n.A3)=_.01 : - .

P(AioAr) thd 'E -

a. P(Az I Ar):
P(.Ar)
=.i,:.50
22

P(,1, r-t ai; * P(A, r''' Ar) - P. ,^Ar) .15 t

P(A ) .22

d. P( A, r-: A. a A,l A,

l-his is the probability u'arded all three pro-iects given that at leasf onc pro.iect
u,as au,ardcd.

55.
2:l-*2xl
A. KA =.011I
4x3 6x 5
b: P(rv
--LY.or.W * Hlanrt(J - M.orM - J)and{H -W.or.W - H)l

t
P(J - M.or.M - J.in.the.ntiddle)
4xlx 2x1x2x7
&.
w:qry&.
%
16
Z
.{u:/uBW numerator:
6x 5x 4x3x 2xl 6l
%,&#r'*
dN "4-, 4x3x 2xlx2x1 48
denominator:
--# 6x5x 4x3x2x1 6!

: 16= - 1
so the desir:ed probabilitv
'483
-
,b'
k
L
l.-
t.-
I-
i-
ChaPtei.2: ProbabilitY

c.
: P( all- H' q.nixt to W's-- -includin g J&M )iP-( J&}vI together)

6xlX4x1.x2xl .tf*,i*
6! _ 18 _1 *.%3
af \-
6: E
' '
"u\
*t*.*.,. '.s
{1. t4-S
.,6rt
56. IfP(BlA)>P(B).thenP(B'IA).P(B') f*{3+, f%- Js.'
Proof bv contradiction "i "t"o
Assuntc -P(B',A1> P(B') - ='
F>- Then 1-P(BIA)>l-P(B). ,,,:."
-"
=J - P(BIA) > - P(B). .. i.,,
=J
..,.,.*,' j
T P(BIA) < P(B).
rt. f his conttadicts the iriitizil'condition, thcrdfor*lPiG'iA) ' P(B')

={
=- l't.l , B) P(,4 r- 81* l'1A' -'-B) P(B) :I
5',7. P(A I B)-+ P(A'lB) =
P.(B)
=-
=
=ra,- .\ c) PL(A et (B o C))
58.
,. ^,^t
P(AwAlC)=
PI C) w.

=\4 P(C)
=+q
- PUnBn'C)
=
=hi.
=v
#dP(c)
",W
= . = P(Alc) $tW - P(A n B lc) '
ffi-&

-
=
)

-=

-=
F
-
F=
P
6L

f-_
- ,

L=
t
I
3x
t----
I

t- *{

sl
I
l-
t-
t-

J
-tr{ i5x 6-
J
;ffiJ J

c. P(Ar,B) = P(-4.tBt- t2 I
'= " ^*fu#:2@
-
,r7tt"''iti',q'7
il
P( B) i.M5-

P(A2lB) = I p(a, B) - r z$ - .462: .214

60.

a. P(not disc I has loc):

P(not.disc
P(has.loc)
r: has.loc) .03
.03+.42
= .061
J
'b. .,. r\arsc(\no.loc) '28'=.509
P(drsc I rro loc) =
- =
P(no.lac) .55
 \\
>4
E

L-=

t
["
t-

.E.*

L
E-
61.
:
P(O

'P(0
a.f in sample |0

def in sample I I delin

def in batch)

batch;'=
'
: I

:(9'
l' i
\2i onn
s%*
e'\
:\\- r\wuUrrrDarrrprLt! uLrrrrvv,-../
--.QVW
'[2, j
\).-/.=.900
/tn '
^,-H
.,'*1
]"?,]:n
B d

L.-
h.\
[,0
-
,#,,,,
. i 9) 'fl,,,. q

E! p(l batch)'
li!l
f-q def in sample I I def-in = ,* yW:,,J

L
*J

EJ
I
'
*
't,l) I
tt

fsI
I I *
{;3,*:
#:3
,q

"'\u,,*b
*"n''
"t

Lr
*r
p(o-def insample l2 def in barch)
= = y,,:::,',,*
I #I - I f- !r-'
f-*^ '.- )o
i -l ',1Q\.,
I

=r
E l'"ll"l i
F\_ P( I def in sarnple | 2 def rn batch) (
-*-/f lul ,
r?'1
')'
=j
=+-
-4
P(2 def in sample |2 def in .022
=
=J
=L:
=
=L-
:J
.5Ll

:=
=-L-..
.i+
-" .t-'lEi
=
= ,t -r .{ .l

I t:til i
-=
LlLr44

-=
E-.
:1-=: .5
= .578
.5 +.24 +.1244
.24
= .218
.5+.24+.1244
.1244
#
lE\a,
P(2 clef in batch l 0 def in sarnple)
:
.5+.24+.1244
= .144
:-
#
*-?
"!

iL_.=
{
 I
t\
.l
-l
J
g -. '
b- P(0 def in batch l I def in sampie) =

=-.4i I

.A6 + .0712 :r,&^

'6,,

- rl;H4+ ,q,

' ?.t*.
{"q/4,
q -"..2r
.w
'-"
{rs
.1>.7*.fr&n= l
?a i.l.\:
"'^''l*j*u"{
.:|,'1i..;!.: l
r'J
-

WrS =.30=
i;rttt;l!@t i4
,/

!tr-
!lt:{",.. W,

1i5x.5=.30=,

Wc u,ant P(BlW):
12 12

.30+.12 .42

%.e
'&W
_ffi
a *,qffiee

- #e^ ru
H%
..4 'w^
' {d#b "q
li4^#
d!%,g
LT"fK
%w{
*-_.YL
M
N -V.
##ffi
"'4S

ww
#4&
4

l-'
Cbapter'2
:
\
.S,

ir-'
\ #%,-'tu
s, *"$ w\\
,.M
s
s,
+
J
L,
--,

J
t b.
t
c-

- 5400+.25x .8x.7 : .

l) +?(A ib' . C) + P(A' n B' r C)

P(A
c. Pr,\,B,^ C) = ---
'od
-s5)
%"s
M*,.. W
"u,.'eryiw
%&
WW
#ts
- #'%_'%
t*
n{*ffi
'h4#
-q
- s;w&o-

ff #w"av
. "%*{
ffi"%
v*#
**"#

(
,a
{

f
 .'l,ard
'/di
#'% ,;"
r:-i"\.
i. -t-ti = .rt ltli
.B t
- _-- tJtt - .lJrr +i''
si E
-+.ti,t

P(+)_- .0s88

.0i96
b. .6735
.0-s88

P(doesn'thavedl-)=

65.

JJ
P(satis) = .51

.2
.51
^;^^ JJ
P(uredian I satis) :.2941
P(rnodc I satis) = .3 I37
So \learr(arrd not Irlode!) is the rrros( likelr arrtltor. u lrilc Mediair is least.
.:
IJ
 \

Chapter 2:
-:

'7,2,.an!
3-, respec-tively. 'Evehts-0, , and
-Define evgnts Al . 42; and A3 as.-flying-with airline .l
2 ate A, I , and 2 flighti ar-e late, r<ispectivbly.' Event D_C = -the eveint that the.flight to DC is -
late, and event LA : the event that the fligh-t to LA-is !ate. Creating
described in the hint, the probabiliti-es of the- sc_cond generation Ugaqffi$re salculhted as
fotlows: For rhe Al'branch, P(OIAl)-: P[DC'ntA'J: PIDC'l . npA'ffi4])(.q) = .o::
P(rlA1) = Pl(De',nLA) u (DCnrA',)]: (.7)[1]+ ( 3X9) = .Ot + flfu s{p(zlat) =
rLDLnLAl : rluuj ..p[Lz\J
i,1oc^r-41:p[DC] -(.3X.r)=.o3
r[L.,\j = (.J.x.r j: .uj .._F%" %%
Follorv a sirnilar pattern for A2 and A3 .
{%
,,,,." e .g
#''*3"
Frorn the law' of total probabiliiy-, w-e know that ''""=Y
'i_",i:,,,"..,J
-L .!!
P(l ): P(A lnl ) +-P(A2lr 1) + P(Azr1) --
i"',j,io;"'
-

: (fi'on-r trce diagrarn bclou,) .I 70 ; .105 + .09 : 3.(J.q%*x

-l

\trIc rvish to finrl P(Al ll), P(A211), andP(A2l'Q.$e1

..",

f tlt ,n,t 1l = t.5ll ;ig = l?rr

fDrlj= 5 '

PflFrl = .;;5
- - lBt u,J 1l = [.1][.i5] = .ltL5

;#A
d
Ptrl;il1&-
PlAirand ll = i.tlt.Sj = .ri!l

Btu
Sd
*% 1,,,ru,,.,0
ff %*
fn)- P(Alal]t
' .170 =.466:
W
* _'%, P(l) '.365

* P(A3 al)'o9o
'
P(A3lr): -
P$) 36s =
.247 :

f
 s..I
*J
-..{

". Chaptgr 2: ProbabilitY

.J I
>r
J
J
J
J
J
.-,s fro

J
J
-&-' .l,rEi5
i'ri'Jrt

+ rril D

J
^.
b.
I'(UnFrCr):-fjfrO

P(Pr n NF n Cr) '- .35

J
' & **+
'Cr;
c. P(Pr r = .062s P.a{- ;ft r
&"w
(t. t ip n crL: .0840 , .hoo * .0h25 = .1725

ts=
.

-
h
L

*- 6g. Usi,g the definition, iwo eventsA and B are'irid-ependent ,t ti^lti =@

n. arn\- : I y- .ry
P(A|B) .aps;P(A)-: 50; .6125+.50, so A and B al.e deperrdent
'
E if d q *
- Using thc rnuitiplicar-ion rulei, the events are irt{ependent
%*
-I p/ a \.:pIR.\.
P(A /r B)=P(AF ?G); -' - -&
rff:tuq;

r
{ ".* w-
',;'ni
L_
i - 69..- _- i;ort"
,.8
Since the event_s are independent. th.n A d*,4srefeindeperrdent,
-
tob' (sge paragrlph
i a.
F Lolar, er,rrrarion i,z. p(B'B').=
? ? P(R'|A,') = . P(B'I=
P(B'I= La. / ::*
belou,equarion
tr M*
.*w-w*;F
F\ ., b. , R\=pr^\\ + p/R\- P(A'
p(AuB):P(A)+P(P)-P(A}P{B)=
ffiry*tax'7)='82
E
E-:
E-' -P(ABI n(/,Mi$&,,- P(AP')- .'-.'12 : tiA
I P(A{'B)?,?'I P(At; B) .82 .

4zr"
:;
- a*^ ft;ta,y;lt
=E+
I
=-t #$i, '1

we*
h w.
Tq-a P(AinA2)= )ffiW*.055. A1 and A2 are notindependent
.11. P(A
-

=, 1-0.
P(Ar,1Ai): .05. P(A ,rufl=.0616 A; and A3 are not independent
Ll.
E

P(A2 n ,A3) = OZ, n(@@r)=.07. A2 and A3 ale irtdependertt'

=g
E \
hr
= : P(A')o piB;'
: 11. P(A'nB)= S n n) = (n) - P(A)' P(B) = 1 - P(A)l' P(B)1

'* P(A' n B) P(B) - P(A a B)

=!:u
=J- -_
E P(B) P(B)
A). P {B)
=1- P{A) = P(A').
-= P(B)
L
-
=

B
-
P(two individuals rnatch) = ni + P(olno2)
#
- r,].,TPlT;,i ilil#i,)
r-
be the evellt that all errot'lt'as signaled rnconectly' We rl'arit
-Let event P(at least one
73. E

p signaleclincon'ectly)= P(Er u Eu u..'u Ero): 1 - P(EIln E' r] " nI10') ^l(E]:1 - 05

-tE= :.g5. Forl0in<lepe,clenlpoints,P(E]'nE:'l...nElo')=P(Er')P(Ez')"P(Ero'.)so=P(Er
j
: L, E2 u ...L, E,o) I - [.95j'0: .401. Siu:ilarly, for25 poinfs, the desiredplobaLrilitf is =l
-

t :t - (.gr25::123
 \{
I
*l
FI
Clrapter 2: Probability- J
J
1!.. P-(noerroron-anypa-rti.cular'!r1!stion):.2,^rol'(noerroronanyo{rhe l0questions)=(9)'0:
.r+Sz' Then P(aiteas-t one
"'''o'-;
=-L -'('9)'o =-'Asra' Fol-p replacing '1' the two probabililies
JJ
!^*
.,{
,:'
'- '3
,1;
"

J
J
.
7.5. Let q denote the probability. tlrat a-rivet is dcfecti-r'e' ' '-',.
4,,. ii .l
-

JJ
A.
A. P(seam need rervork) : .20- 1 - I'(seam doesn't needtfifur4'ri'k)
: 1- P(no livcts are defecti*.q,)-- ,J'
't ilel)
I tl qr-t.r,'rr"rt-,li)" 1-t1 "tr"1 'artJllru:q l-
.yY -.00s8e.
I t-t - -
sgu-r .uuoo7. 3
l" "a'b"'d

J
o'' , ,

''""'"'
- --
& :ttt::o
il

ll
b. The desired- conclirion-is I0: l - (l -.S)_l:, i e,tt q)r5 : 90. fromra,hich q: 1 -.99579

JJ
il
"
t nn 11rI '4
-_ t,uq.
I
I
I
t i. ,i!
t-
t- -. :'l *r^,,,,,7:fur,,,.,=

t' 76. -P(-ar lcait one ofens) - P(norlgagFn),= I - ( 0-5)r : 99999965

E
I
P(at least one fails to opcn) :.]..3.1,f,1*ren) = I - (.gs)'j
:

JJ
-2262
I
I
n ,#ru
td- f*
"o#4,,o
'!

pT."'.i punrp fails. and x : P(A 1 n,'\2). Then P(A ) --' 10 + x,

-,
11 Lel A r : older punrp fail4l.$4 r

p(.\,) := .05 +- x.
P(A:) =f@ffiAr) : P(A r)).P(A.)
* =?tr&dAr)
ard x
x, una
: (. I 0 + x)( .05'r
'P(Ar) -- (.10 x) .' Thc
.05 r-x) resultr,g
The resulting

J
r

qurJ,-atic equatio,. @#6SW+ 005 :0. has x : 0059 a.d x = .8441. Hopefully the
'oots
srnaller root is the actual$robability of systern failure
- ****^.f

J
j
Wwww;I
78. P(systern Srftf:P( I 2 u'orksv3-4rvorks)
ffi,%_*:a(, _ 2 rvor.ks) r p(3_4 u,orks) - p( I - 2 wor-ks - Arvorks)
^3
I)(3 r'r,olksn 4 u'orks)- P( I - 2)'P(3 - 4)
{**mff = P(l u,orksr.J 2 rvorks)*/n,n
^W MF or\/n\/n\
U*
g.
=( e+.e-81)+(e)(e)-(.e+e-'8lX'eXe)
:.e9-r.Sl-.301e=.eeSl
;*%
K'&
&ffi*
!&*
"#
{ q*
W
I
*-l
\-:l
JJ
=
7_
r d
{

_v

-1i-rF *.
-Bt"- 3 .
.;''- '' I .J-'
-Usingrtretrints. lerP(A-1'=-p.andx-p2-,tfrenP(systernlifetrri?a€eic€edsts) =l l'. t'=
:
;i': :;;.,'. ; "1
x".",'et rhis equaii sor:: 2x + ee 0' use the
;; !=: 1::i*
.?{:.2
. - 2t J4-(+X")YH
quadratic.ibrltru1atoso1l,efor*.=#T=l+.]=99ori.01
L -.-

probability, ancl has tq-l'.;.E€ use the r alue o1 99.

Since the vaEe rve ivar.rt is a
'-'.,e!* i
'"':;t#j
',1%"

s%.*
80. Ilvent A: { (3.1X-?'2X3.4(3,4X3'sX3,6) },
P(A}'4il
Lvent B: { (1.4X2,4)(-r^4X4.4X5'4X6-.4) },
Pb'**' '
r.#
jjvent C : { ( 1,6X2,s)(3.4X4,3X5'2)(s
!-ryt
rt},#*&*9)
: ; :'
!t'.1,

rj-,^-+ A alt- I 1?, al i . p/ L 1p'1 -=,6IIi,1, $

*npE
W#,

I-'t P(B).P(c)k+iruWY*:P(BnC)
The evegffi%rg pBirwise independent

= --=.-
=t

=
=:r
=,
=
-=
p
-
f-,t=='I
ft-=
f
 -t
_i{

Chapter Z: frobabititv-

P(bot h deteil the -defect)

:

' *a.-' p(lsrdetectsr', 2'ddocsn't; :='p(t"

2'ddoesn't) a' - P(l't uLlsrr-r4
p,i'':o*tti"-'' 2""doeSn't)=P(t-'detecIs)-r(r
P(1" detects) do;s n 2'd doj;Q-*
{.; "},,r,,*a,
I
=.9-.x=.i "i 'it
4tlt&2, z.tyqglf ^ \= .
)ll-llllarly-r\l uuLrl! rir4 '-,"---\ - ,,,:]1
;{ ia
i
+{, ii;

b. p(rieither dctecrs a <lefcct) = 1 lf lUbth do) + P(e*actlL'l' t:li

=l-1.8+.21=0 .n* ',n ;': .:.3... '=

- so P(all 3 escape) = (0X0X0) = 0 u'-i

.-"'*

l,.hI{-',a
-%
.
s,i
",a - T di
o't
oL. F(pass) = 70 te"
'&*,%,.
'tsg;l'

#'4,
a. 70X.70): fu#'%,
-(.70T(
,,*{.!u,i
':*-od ;
g*o
one Passes): ( ?0)( ii.loi1.;ox.:o) + (.3ox.3ox 70): .r89
c.. - P(exactlv
t

d. P(# pass 3 1) : l'](L) Pass ity on.passes) - ( 3)3 + '189= '216

_e, P(3 pass { } or rrlore Aa

^
P(3.passr:\1"! =.-J)J
P(> 1: .913

83.
1tr fixatiorl. Dr : detection on 2"d fixation'
2 lixatioris): P(Dr)+ l'(D1' n D2)

= P(Dr) + P(D2 I D1' )P(Dr)

. =p+-p(1 p)=p(2-p)
\ <
n D.) "r'_=t
\-

_-.:!=

p)' I
i

I
I
I

n+l tt:'1)r, 1

Alternatively. P1r, n.,or, rr lixatrons) = 1 - P(at least ": 'tJ

l 'P(no detection in l"'n fixaricbs) I
I

=r1- P(Dr'n D-'n . A Dn' ) )

-1_ (1'- p).

,\t
,1

c. P(rro cletecrion in 3 liratiorrs) = (l - p)

 \

' - ' ChaPter 2:

-'
ProbabilitY
"-----"'a-'J .

fotp=

:
84.
2000 :%*
10.000 :
"t;;,2;:.. I

- p(BtA;p(A)
-, p(BrA')."p(A') l::+. iz)-, +g.i
. ,:.q?gq, '9999
s; z *.
,.. 1l
B): 039984; since
:-, B):.039984;
P(A rr .in.e Pr('AP'v$I,+ P(A)P(B).
P(A)P(B), the evenls
e'en1s
!6'P*f3*
are indepe,aent.
not indel
-."- 1,--*
t'^*
,r* ,
b. l)(A - B) .04 Vcrl lgtleilillprcnce Yes

c, P(A) :
-
';?-'r.'l)
P(B): .?,
F **''"
P;';&,,*P#- 04, bur P(A n B) '= P(BlA)l1A) : i * = .0222, so the
Bw
r rv o ru rn bers ar@hi{ed; l'l'cIcn L
r
4.-
In a, the sarnple sizels sprall relative to the "population" size, rvl'riie here it is jicr-t.

WvWe
85. P(systern Morti&S= P( | - 2rvolksn 3 - 4 - 5- 6 rvorks n 7 u'orks)
&\* & *"4%" "=P(
d I -2 p(l 4- 5-
rvorks)r 6rvorks)'P( 7u'olks)
'- ffdwl'm w
= ( ee) (.963e) ( e): ss88
Withffrud$6systern in figure 2.14 connected in parallel to this subsysteln,
]L
Pfqdar
:' rvorks) = .8588+.927 - (.8588X.927): .989'/

w
"&

'%.
#@ &"#
&s
W

,
F
 $I
q
*-"1

Ch6pter 2: ProbabilitY
{

b. P(4 ct ossing route I late)

(.5X 0s23)
f 5X o-sz:) + (.s)( 1e)
P( cros sin g n
: -----;,
-r-\

t
87. .

(1

(l-
-

(1..n).'
tr)

n)n iI
w 1- tt L:d
#
P{at rnostAt t"&) = -
ilo&): 1 P(both lost)
4 -r&e-
"{% = l-
)
n-
-r'&

%"@ P(exctctl1il)
-2r(l-n)'
=- g:E
PjSffifullatnrostl)=
P(cfi'ntostl) 7- rc2
{ru
€'{

U:J
J

$
 T
i,<,
L-
L-
t-. '
Chapter 2: Probdbility

il

r20)
a, Ili.i l: 1140
\-./
(r q)
b. '1I i .ll-969
-\",/ .

-c. # ha",ipg at leasi I ol the l0 best - - il40-

s-9.

' t-500
0 -666
P(Crack) ,= .444
r 500

b. P(I3lenrish I line

[- ' '112-
c. P(Sulface Sb{e :--
F
- - s q .rutfuu, tu
1 s00

{
& #-m E ;tt./
'Y<no
qry#. I I Surface Defect) ==
:y =.291
,%! &, "l;00
w
eu. #{ru
#@
-Theonly rvay he will have one type of forrns left is if they are all coulse substitution
#* F
fonns. He niust choose all 6 of the withdiarval forrns to pass to a suboldinate. The
W 3 i6)
desired probability
tt
ir !6)-
= .004j6
rr0)
II
tt
\6/ r
E

b. He can slall rvith the rvd fonns: W-C-W-C ol witli the cs lolrns: C-W-C.W:
F
# ofrvay's: 6 x 4 x 5 x 3 + 4 x 6 x 3 x 5 = 2Q6U= 12A;
r---
Tlie tcjtal # rvayS to au'arige the foul folrns: l0 x 9 x 8 x 7= 5040..
E
'Ihe desired probability isi2015040-- 1429
 I

i-
!

\\{
-i
:

'\;
Chapter 2: ProbabilitY- .; ts
!

-L
.:
91. P(AuB) = P(A)'r P(B) - P(A)P(B)
-i :

..626 : P(A)+ P(B)-.144 **

SoP(A)+ P(B)- -70 and P(A)P(B) = 'tM" 'i;{'.'r' -;
- itutin-s this into
Lcr x= P(A) and y = PtB), tireir using the first equalion, y = 'i'1 x,+a1$trurat _
the-sccond equation. we gct x ( '11 - x )': 'l44or +
\' ,i-
i - .l'l* i iU- 0. Usc thequadialic folrnula to solve: ?u

.li -' {77 - G)(.W -.17 ! .13

45',*,0
T = .32 or r'' ", ,, :

LL 2 .:
SoP(A):45 and P(B) - l2 'r;r)1:"".i"'*

- ,r".,aL. "i

>
tt,',$
'1.:.:t.,-
92. I "h"-

a. (8X.8X 8): .512 #.fut.^

-
.4.,8 3'
ff?n^.". -a
b. L*# j'. r

"i

-
-

1 received) =
.P(lseil alreceived) .4256
=.7835
>
-P(Treceived -5432

=!
 \

,t
I

'l

-.r
t: ei.
L: ' .' 'a. iThere are-5x4x3x2x7-= l2O possible ordegings, soP(BCDE-E) =

- ;'Sz6,--'
-1-: .00.83
120

L* -b.-
# order-ings in rvhich F is 3'd
nto::dl-:,*
= 4x3x7*x2xl =24,(* because Fr%S"p here), so

:"".:
:- : f,:
&.
..rrr<

[- c. =
4>3v}vlxl .,^ 41.-
:.- P(F tasr) = y{'.0-
jZ'
"t:!t!"'+ *-*
l:rrrri?rb4
.:,r,r+ ?,*,,,,,,,:i

94. P(F hasn't ireard afier 10 times) = P(nct on 31 n nct'ef;l"#P r \...., no tonrl0)
[-
F- =[il ' 'to14
z-. r l0

[- \- /
,:":.'
t
i'-1 j
h'r.,.,1
*i

L
[?
E17
l-
95. lVhen th|ee expelirnents u,. p., forrrnu&6h.r. ,.. 3 different rva1,s in u'hich detectiotl can
occuronexactly2ofthe*,perirr.;cntsr(4 +tana#2andnot#3 (ji)#l andnot#2and#3:
E---
E

(iii) nor# 1 and li2 and #-l tf the llpuftty is present, the probability of exact11, 2 detections in

E-
F\t
three (irrdependent)
(indepenrlent) expelime4*a'tgS"f:8{.8)(.2) ( EX 2X.S) + (.1X.3X.u.)
experimen{s:id( &{8X.2) + (.|iX.2X.3) ( 2X.8X.8) =
inrpurity is absent, the analo€;p&p, bability is 3(.1X.1X.9): .027. Thus
= 384. If the .

E !r' P(pr=esent I dctected in expitl;fuut of 3):

I 'esent)
E P(det ected.in.exa
--.
Ev P(det ecte )

i-
E

E
.6)
:.905

I
- 96. category #1 | all 3 are different)
I.selectst'il o

two select two different

' categories)

: ^ lx5x4 5x4x3
)x- -
6x6x 6 6x6x6 \
t
I '-
The desired probability is ther.r
2
-
i
-
 -l
J
J
\i, /
l-lLlur-I .tl:4
/./

iinirfl

}'r
J
.LIJ E

.r_r1 Lr
t:riil
.tt+ '4,i.,,:,,:!l
_

P(pasiinspection) = Plpass inrtiallv u P.,utses4l64redi'nping) = P(pass initiall5')

+ P(
_ a:a .t.t:.::.3

I
fails initially., goes to recrirnping r is con-ec$8'q{1er reclimping)

J
.r..El
= a: + ( 05)( 8O)( .60)-(lollorvinr Iarlr "badgood-$ood" on tree tJiagrartr)
*
e74
J
=
{;:-?=ti;="
" ..:
_.t,n
,t.t

JJ
P( passerl .iniriallY)
b. -r-- , passetl inspectionl=
P(needed no leclirnping cr
..,.,*,..
*{ P(passed 'itts;pec:tion\ '
')=. . -95
,.,,,,**.,;
I
=
e-
.)
-9154'

J
'
. '"At:o
:;j r, -!t!
8+'.r
fr^ {q
#f,
W
J
&
98.
-
P(both+ ) = P-(cauieLfo Uotn+ ) l'P(not acaLrieln both + )
^. q"P(b-oJh + |1 can-ier')

J
can ier) x P(carier)
P(carrier')
€X(bgp
' *ru
,ffiw.wo^-W + f(Ooln -r
+P(both + ]nOt
| notacariu)xP(nota
aUalllelixI\llut carrier)
d ror

--'& ffi(.90t'iol)+ (05)'(99)=

JJ
01058
' p(bo W% (30)2(.ot) +( e5)r(.9e) : E9J58
,,.. a4
P1tffi-qgreei = .01058' .893sS = .90416

\ -- " r-tborh.posirit'e)
Plcot'r'ier ('90)r ('01)
.b.#Miet.lboth+Y6)=
-%.**#, ' r -' - ..,656
& '% P(boih-ltositit'e) .ttl 058
BV
,g MW

ffiru
-
J
J
gq
99. %.#A: l'' functions, B:2'd functions, so P(B) =.9, P(Ar-l B): '96' P(An B)='75" Thus'
u B): P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B) = P(A) + .9 - .75 = .96, implving P(A) = 8i

J
P(A '

This gives P(B-l A) =

P(B /1\ .75
^ = -- .926
-tr
*,

I 00. P(Er n
' '%'

late) P( late l Er )P(Er): (.02)( aa) = .sg3

=
J
4
 Chapter2: Probability

l0 t.
"The law of total probability
gives
3

P(rate) :I rltotel E,). P (E,)-

;=l
{'-1
**'
:-(ozx+o)+(0lxs0)+(35X.10):018 E*.
.. st
b. P(E1' I on tirne)
-: P(Er I on time)
,;
,SWr. %
x; ru
1 - & ,
P(E,'ton-time\ t o15 4.P*YOOf
-, - -, -
P(on'time)-,=*,q,9
;iurr,,,1'
, ?:,.d$

102- - -l,et B der.rote thc evcnl that a cotnponent needs ,[+e,0-1.[: Th-en'
L,.*4?r,,',,.,,.-'':'
pF) =
:i=r P(B At) - P(A,): (.0sX .50)
#'.9,,.S 1 ( 10)( 20): 06e

n,a!
(.05X'50) '*'
-+^ r?
Thus P(A I B)' .:
069
.fWa
l't" *q'
..-fWa e
ts -
03x.l0)
\"'/\'- .
/ ( 3-r "

P(Arlllt- = 148'L 3 J,W

.069
(.1 0X.20)
.069

1 03.
*ru-.
a.
Sosl(364)...(3s6)
P(all dril-prenl) =#'-j--------
' -- .66J
oo,
(365) "']
# 5&.
_

S&ileatt two thc sarne) = I - .883 = .l l7

'qe
ffi
{pru
b. *&fl"#,
&'w two the sarnc) =- .416 fot'1122, and = '507 for k=23

' ffiM Pift teast two have the same SS number) = 1 - P(all diffelent)
W* "%,-
(1000xe99)"'(e91)
X
w %"
(rooo)ro
: t' .956= .o4a
- Thus P(at least one "coincidence") = P(ED coincidence u SS coincidence)
#
\-t : .117 +.044 - (.1 17X.044) = .156

L::-

{-; V
{
 Ail
t\
I
.l
\
I

r- i
I

Chapter 2 :' Piobability

r-j
I
t-H
I
,*
I
I
,-l l
I

.J
I
l
1:

!, ,i f

trl. l

a. P(G lR, <R,<R3) = .6J ,P(B lRr . Rr . Rr) = ,. gronite.

13,classify

b. P(G lRr c la ss i fy as Uu-rutt. -

.y,,y,,:t".r,...,*.'"4
,.b .i?".,,v
'r4 Lit

tff+x, classify as basalt.

c. fuffi*#or. classifl -
(enadous classil) P(B classif as G) + P(G classif
cl as B)

@lassifas G I Ir)p(B) + p(classit-as B I G)p(G)

aR:'R3 lBX.75)+P(Rr
d#mffn, : 'R:'Rr orRr <Rr <R: lCX.25)
wii%.= (J0X.7s) - (.25 + .15X.25) tls
#r
W

:!i
I
,-\=1
 d. Forwhat values of p will P(G tRr<Rr<R3) > '5, P(G I Rr < R: >'5,
'Rz)
P(G lR3 a Rr < Rz),,S?

==
' .25p
= P(GlRr.Rr=R;)= ).) rtt P>-
'9
E<_ .25p+.2(1- p)
=-
.
E
""r o
.15 - < strictivc)
P(G lR3 < Rr < Rz): re

=- .15p + .'7 (t- p)_

=,
= t4
:aa
=,s#'
,i.
,ir:?.:ai,
1
p > I alutvs.lassifr
.,:il

l{ -17 3s grartite.
---_
=.t
=
=L_
=tu
- ,,,%,_
. eet
= r 0s. P(detection by the end of the nt}.g1irnpsef"",l'5P"{hot detccted in 1tt ,)
.\ .: :-
=--
=, = 1 P(G1' n G:ln .. ,-, G,' ): I - P(Gr')Pffia\. .P(G,')
!t, E
=
- ,:&. ,f,
==-
=-
= 1-(1-prXl -p:) . (l -P,): )',I:.,Y j:.
P,)
4

=
={-
=>
r 06.
= a. 0625

::]
=<.q
b. P(rvalks o, O'n ) : 1't -5 are shikes, #6 is a ball)
=
:=-{ P(2 of the l" 5 are shikes)P(#6 is a ball)
= r0(.s)51(.s) : .1s62s
F--
=
t

= c. Effi,-alks
P(Baue-r on 4'h) + P(*alks on 5'h; + p(u'alts on 6'h;

= ' K %. -.062sF.1562s'+ls62s=.375
: d. P\fffi'Wyscoles :
whilc no one is out) P(first 4 battir s walk)
-<
-
E
{w*
2'w &
(37sf = oles
=
:::-
--
G
%@
107.
ffiryll
-< ffialin conect loorn): = -:- = -0411
-ffi"%
x% 4x3x2xl 24
q,a
wi
,w
b. The 9 outcoryres which yield inconect assigruaents are: 2143-, 2341 ,2413,3142,3412,
9
#
\:-
3421, 4 123, 4321, a'nd 4312, so P(all incorrec n =
;LA ='37 5

a,
*
L-<
t
L_4,
{
 I
i{
-l
FT
-'Chapter- 2 :- ProbabilitY J
JJ
o Bt5 (\
r(A .r C) : (I'or\'rl\''+/-
n L): 6X.5X'4):'i2 ' z

J
P(all tull)
tul]) = P(A '
:"1 - '12 =- '88
Piat least one.isn't fnll)'= I - P(all tu1D

Ilach entry belori' is the

I 09. Note: s : 0 means that thg ver'-v first e andidate inte
candidate hirccl for the given policv and outcome'

Outcome s=0 s:l s-2 s:0 s:l s:2 s=3

L
) 4 4
ni4 4 I .1 1

124-1 -l 1 J T J I 4 2
L
,1 4 214 1 2 I 4
1324 4

1342 2 2 . ?241- f _'2 I 1

\,
3412 J. 1 I 2-
1423
)4ll 2 2 1
1432 2 _ .3
'4 4 1- l )
?t34 I .4123
3 4132 -4 I 2 ): I
2143
4 4213 4 2 I 3
2314 I
_1
t_
I I 4231 4 2 1
234r
I J 43t2 4- 3 1 _1-

t'I - 2413
I 43zt 4 3 2 l
2431 1

6 6

24 24

So s: 1 is best.

I - P(none occur)
: I -(l -Pr)(l --Pz)(1-P:)(1-P+)
:prPz(l -p:)(l -Pq)+...+(l , Pr)(1-pu)p:p4 :

+(l - pr)p2p3p4 +... +pr PzP:(l- pr)+prp:P:P'r .-

: 4) :'/"
111. P(A r ) P(drarv slip 1 or 4) --'/z', P(A :) = P(drarv slip 2 or
P(A3)= P(drarv slip 3 or' 4)-'/';P(A 1n A')=P(draw slip4)='/^'
%
:
iior'^ nr) = p(Oraw slip 4) '/"; P(Ar n Ar) = P(drarv slip 4) = )1
= %'
Henqe P(A 1 n A:)= P(A,)P(Au): 7", P(4, n A:) = P(Az)P(A:) =

P(;\rnA:):P(Ar)P(Al):l'"'thusthereexistspaiirviseindependeuce - _-
P(A r A2 n A3):P(clrarv slip 4) : '/" + 1i8: P{4')p(A:)P(Ar)' so the eveuts are not
^ 1., i'..1o'.errderrt
1
 _'!

:-
.-

'&dd'Nutmbered Exercisffi :.
4Ea

t. a. .( : 11324,3124, 134?, 314?. 1423. 1432. 4123, 4132, ?3. a. .067 b. Ef^ -Y.1.1

231 4, 234 1, 3211, 324 1, 24 1 3, 2431, 4213, 423 1 )

25. a. .85 b.
b. l {1324, 1342, 1423. 14321
c. B : {2314.2341,.3214, 3241. 2413,2431. 4213, 4231}
- Ll. a. .l b-
- n. AU B= 11324, 1342, ]423, 1432, 2314, 2341, 3214, 29. a. 676; I 296
3241. 2413, ?431, 4213, 4231), c. 456,976; 1,679, L .542
,1 i-, Econtalns no outcoRles (.,1 and Eare tJiqoint),
hys (roughiyJ01,r)
' .1 = 13124,3142. 4t23, 4132, 2314,2341, 3214, 3241,
31. a- 743

2413, 2431, 4213, 4231) 33. 59,067,881.572,000 c. 9,072,00b

a. ].8l6 214. ;00 i-"b...\659,067,881.572,04A 9,072,000

3. a. /r = {SSF, SFS, FSSI 35. a. 3&,760,..0049+%b. .0054 c.- 9946 d. 2885

.!.: +
b. B = {ssF, sFS, FSS, SSSI 37. a. 60 ..,r=.,,,..1.1,b.
1A c. 0456
c. C = {SFS. SSF, SSSI ?o
SS. a. b.
^ r\a4i;..i,i,:r'1!r,4..:.,
aS$,p \ atol\
249?5
d. C = {FFF, FSF, FFS, FSS SFF], ".f,.1""""
IlIJ C -* {SSF. SFS, FSS, SSS], 41. a. 10,00.0 '=-' b. 9876 c. .0333 d. 0337
,l r-r r _ iSSF SFS} 13.--000394 00394. 0000t539 - ..'... ..
BU C - {SSF, SFS. FSS, SSS] = B. -
lJC\ r - r((E (LQ SSS]I - C !t;-;.":Lui s00, 200 b. 400. .147
_
c. z1t
.r.!h?ral,::ta

5. a. -( : {(1,l,l). (1, i 2), (} I 3) (1,2, r) 0.2,2) (r,2.3), ailt"so

tfi4?. a.'t:.!,50 b..50 c..625
(r,3, 1), (r.3 (1,3.3), (2, l, li. (2, t,2), (2.1,3), (2,2.1
2),
d.:3i5
,t.tir:t*.d:: 3i e. 769
(2,2.7).(2,2,3), (2.3, 1). (2. 3.2).(z 3,3), (:. I, i), (:, i. a.34.40 b..588 a..50
(3, 1,3) (3 2, r), (3, 2,2), (3.2, 3), (3,3, 1), (S,3, 2), (S,
51. a. 436, b. .581
b. {(1, l, )'t 12,-2,2), (3.3.3)} c. {(1,2,3). (1
(2, ),3), (2,3, 1), (3, 1, 2), t3, 2, l))
d. {(1, 1, t),H,"fw;, 53. .083
(1, 3. i) (1.3,3), (3, r. 1), (3, 1, 3), (3,3,r), (3. 3,wrw 55. .236
7. a.-There-are3!orrtconres inJ.-- b. {AABABAB. B- 59. a. .21 b. 455 c. .264-, .46L
61. a. ..578, .278, .144 b. 0, .457, .543
63. b. .54 c. .68 d. .74 e. .7941

65. .087, .652, .261

67. .000329; vcry uneasy.

69. a..126 b. 05 c. .tlZ5 d. .2725

'e. .5325 f. .2113
71. a. .300 b. .820 c. .146

i9.. a..8841 75. .401, .722

Zl. a. 10 ' d. .59 77. a. .A6235 b. .00421

e. .31 79. .0059

tu
{-=
{
 ^-- I
s'q
{
--r
Answers to Selected Odd-Numbered Exerrises A-33
r{

c.291

c. .2 d. .t074

,e:
rue_# *V
*u*^
-#*"x ?-*.ffv&.#

4
{-r**-
ffi@

_XLffi
w ,##
*#"
&W
*%,..
,*
{%*
W#
W

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