Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Report Statistics G-3 C-2-1
Report Statistics G-3 C-2-1
A report submitted in conformity with the requirements for the course of Statistics for Decision
Making with Lab in BBA Program
Submitted by
ID:024231000408-1202
ID:024231000408-1191
ID:024231000408-1185
ID:024231000408-1183
Section:64-C_2
Supervisor:
DR. Sayedul Anam
Associate Professor
Department of Business Administration
Daffodil International University
Introduction
GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product. It's a measure of the total value of all goods and
services produced within a country's borders over a specific period, typically a year or a quarter.
In Bangladesh, GDP is calculated using the expenditure approach, which sums up consumption,
investment, government spending, and net exports (exports minus imports). It provides a
snapshot of the country's economic activity and overall economic health.
These are all important concepts in statistics that describe different aspects of a data set. Here's a
breakdown of each with an example to illustrate:
Central Tendency:
Mean: This is the most common measure of "average" and is calculated by adding all the values
in a data set and dividing by the number of values. It's a good representative of the center of the
data if the data is symmetrical (like a bell curve).
Example: If you have exam scores of 70, 85, 90, 80, and 95, the mean score would be (70 + 85
+ 90 + 80 + 95) / 5 = 84.
Median: This is the "middle" value when the data is ordered from least to greatest. It's less
sensitive to outliers (extreme values) compared to the mean.
Example: Using the same exam scores (70, 85, 90, 80, 95), ordering them gives 70, 80, 85, 90,
95. The median score is 85.
Spread of Data:
Standard Deviation (SD): This measures how spread out the data is from the mean. A lower SD
indicates the data points are closer to the mean, while a higher SD indicates more variation. It's
calculated by finding the average squared distance of each data point from the mean, then taking
the square root of that value.
Example: Continuing with the exam scores, calculating the SD would involve finding the
squared deviations from the mean (84) for each score, averaging them, and then taking the
square root. The result tells you how much the scores typically deviate from the average score of
84.
Variance: This is simply the standard deviation squared. It represents the average squared
deviation from the mean, but it's less commonly used than SD because it's in squared units of the
data, which can be harder to interpret.
Example: Using the same data from the standard deviation example, the variance would be the
standard deviation squared. It tells you the average squared difference of the scores from the
mean score.
Shape of the Data:
Skewness: This measures the asymmetry of a data set. A zero skewness indicates a symmetrical
distribution (like a normal bell curve). A positive skew means the data has a "tail" leaning to the
right (more high values), and a negative skew means the tail leans to the left (more low values).
Example: Imagine income data in a country. If there are a few very high earners, the distribution
might be skewed right. Conversely, if there's a large population living in poverty, the distribution
might be skewed left.
Kurtosis: This describes the "peakedness" of a distribution compared to a normal curve. A high
kurtosis indicates a sharper peak with heavier tails (more outliers), and a low kurtosis indicates a
flatter peak with lighter tails (fewer outliers).
Example: Height data in a population might have a low kurtosis, as most people would fall
within a typical height range. Test scores with a lot of perfect scores or very low scores might
have a high kurtosis.
By understanding these concepts and calculating these values, you can gain valuable insights into
the characteristics of your data set.
Economic Growth: A higher GDP typically indicates stronger economic growth, as it reflects
increased production and consumption of goods and services. This can lead to higher living
standards, increased employment opportunities, and reduced poverty.
Government Revenue: GDP influences government revenue through taxes. A higher GDP
generally means more taxable income, which can provide governments with more funds for
public services, infrastructure development, and social welfare programs.
Investment: Investors often use GDP as a measure of a country's economic health and potential
for returns. Higher GDP can attract more domestic and foreign investment, stimulating further
economic growth and development.
Standard of Living: GDP per capita, which is GDP divided by the population, is often used as
an indicator of a country's standard of living. Higher GDP per capita generally correlates with
better access to education, healthcare, and other essential services for the population.
Employment: GDP growth is associated with increased demand for labor, leading to more job
opportunities and reduced unemployment rates. However, the quality of employment (e.g.,
wages, job security) may vary depending on other factors such as the structure of the economy
and government policies.
Global Competitiveness: Countries with higher GDP often have greater influence in global
markets and politics. A strong economy can enhance a nation's competitiveness in international
trade and diplomacy.
Overall, GDP is a crucial metric for assessing and understanding the economic performance and
potential of a country, but it should be considered alongside other indicators to provide a
comprehensive view of economic well-being and development.
Positive Impacts:
Export Growth: Since the 1990s, trade openness and FDI have been key accelerators of
Bangladesh’s growth, increasing the volume and value of exports.
Economic Diversification: Policy reforms, such as the creation of export processing zones, have
contributed to growth in per-capita income.
Long-term Economic Growth: Studies suggest that trade openness has a positive and
significant effect on economic growth in the long run.
Condition of trade openness in Bangladesh:
Trade openness has been a major contributor to Bangladesh's economic growth, particularly
since the 1990s. Here's a breakdown of the relationship:
Positive Impacts:
Export Growth: Trade openness facilitated a surge in exports, especially garments and
knitwear. This brought in foreign exchange and boosted economic activity.
Job Creation: The thriving export industry created millions of jobs, particularly for women in
the garment sector.
Poverty Reduction: As job opportunities increased and the economy grew, poverty rates
significantly declined.
Overall Growth: Trade openness is considered a key factor behind Bangladesh's impressive
economic growth in recent decades.
Challenges and Considerations:
Over-reliance on Garments: The heavy dependence on the garment industry makes Bangladesh
vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand.
Limited Diversification: The export basket needs diversification to reduce vulnerability and
promote growth in other sectors.
Import Dependence: Openness also leads to dependence on imports for raw materials and other
goods.
Current Situation:
Diversifying exports: Expanding beyond garments to include new products and markets.
Improving trade policies: Streamlining procedures to further encourage trade.
Addressing infrastructure limitations: Enhancing infrastructure to support efficient trade flows.
500
400300
GDP(B)
200 100
0
CONTENTS DETAILED
INFORMATION OF GDP
MEDIAN 47.365
MEAN 92.22192
STD. DEV. 115.32
VARIANCE 13298.69
SKEWNESS 1.817907
KURTOSIS 5.24117
Inflation
Bangladesh experienced inflation in 2023, with the rate reaching around 9.02% compared to the
previous year. Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Inflation in 2023:
Average Rate: According to sources like Statista and The Daily Star, the average
inflation rate in Bangladesh throughout 2023 was approximately 9.02% .
Fluctuations: Inflation wasn't constant throughout the year. The Bangladesh Bureau of
Statistics (BBS) reported inflation consistently above 9% since March 2023, with a peak
of 9.93% in October .
Food vs. Non-Food Inflation:
Higher Food Inflation: In 2023, food inflation was generally higher than non-food
inflation. For instance, The Daily Star reported food inflation reaching 12.56% in
October, the highest in at least a decade.
Reasons for Inflation:
Global Factors: The rise in global commodity prices, especially after the Russia-Ukraine
war, impacted Bangladesh's import costs, contributing to inflation.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Disruptions in global supply chains due to the pandemic
might have also played a role.
Current Situation (as of May 14, 2024):
Limited Data Availability: It's difficult to provide the most recent inflation rate for 2024
since the BBS might not have published data yet. However, you can check their website
for updates.
Potential Improvements: There are signs that inflation might be easing. Bangladesh
Bank reports indicate a decrease in inflation to 9.41% in December 2023 compared to the
previous month.
10
8
Inflation(%)
4
2 6
Overall
Analysis of Economic Indicators in Bangladesh
This analysis examines the impact of several economic indicators on Bangladesh's GDP (Gross
Domestic Product). Here's a breakdown of each indicator and its potential relationship with
GDP:
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): A positive correlation is expected. FDI inflows bring
capital, technology, and expertise, which can boost productivity, create jobs, and
stimulate economic growth, ultimately contributing to higher GDP.
Total Government Expenditure (G): The relationship can be complex. Government
spending on infrastructure, education, and healthcare can enhance economic productivity
and growth, leading to higher GDP. However, excessive spending can lead to deficits and
inflation, potentially hindering GDP growth.
Gross Domestic Investment (GDI): This is positively correlated with GDP. Higher
investment in machinery, buildings, and other productive assets increases the economy's
productive capacity, leading to higher output and GDP growth.
Inflation: A moderate level of inflation can encourage investment and economic activity.
However, high inflation erodes purchasing power, discourages investment, and disrupts
economic stability, ultimately hindering GDP growth.
Foreign Aid: The impact can be mixed. Foreign aid can provide resources for
infrastructure development, social programs, and disaster relief, which can indirectly
contribute to GDP growth. However, dependence on aid can create disincentives for
domestic resource mobilization and long-term economic self-reliance.
Data Analysis Recommendations
To analyze these relationships effectively, you'll need time series data for Bangladesh on each
indicator (GDP, FDI, G, GDI, Inflation, Foreign Aid) for a reasonable period (e.g., 10-20 years).
Here are some analytical techniques you can employ:
Time Series Graphs: Visualize the trends of each indicator over time to identify
potential patterns and relationships.
Descriptive Statistics: Calculate measures like mean, median, standard deviation for
each indicator to understand their central tendencies and dispersion.
Correlation Analysis: Measure the strength and direction of the linear relationship
between GDP and each indicator. A correlation coefficient close to 1 indicates a strong
positive correlation, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative correlation.
Regression Analysis: This technique can be used to quantify the relationship between
GDP and the other variables. You can develop a regression model to estimate how
changes in these variables might impact GDP.
Considering the limitations:
Correlation doesn't imply causation. Just because two variables move together doesn't
necessarily mean one causes the other. Other factors might influence both variables.
Data quality: Ensure the data you use is reliable and from credible sources.
By employing these techniques and considering the limitations, you can gain valuable insights
into how these economic indicators influence Bangladesh's GDP and inform policymakers on
strategies to promote sustainable economic growth.
15000
10000
5000
0
Regression and correlation are both statistical tools used to analyze the relationships
between variables, but they serve different purposes:
Correlation:
What it measures: Correlation measures the strength and direction of a linear
relationship between two continuous variables.
Output: It provides a correlation coefficient (r) which ranges from -1 to +1.
Positive correlation (0 < r < 1): as one variable increases, the other tends to increase as
well.
Negative correlation (-1 < r < 0): as one variable increases, the other tends to decrease.
Zero correlation (r = 0): no linear relationship between the variables.
Doesn't imply causation: Correlation only shows that two things change together, it
doesn't necessarily mean one causes the other. There might be a third unknown factor
influencing both variables.
Example: Imagine you have data on study hours (independent variable) and exam
scores (dependent variable) for a group of students. You calculate a correlation
coefficient of r = 0.7. This indicates a positive correlation, meaning there's a tendency
for students who study more to score higher on exams. However, correlation doesn't tell
you if studying causes higher scores. Maybe smarter students naturally study more and
also score higher.
Regression:
What it does: Regression goes beyond correlation by modeling the relationship
between a dependent variable (predicted variable) and one or more independent
variables (predictor variables). It creates an equation that can be used to predict the
value of the dependent variable based on the values of the independent variables.
Output: A regression line (for linear regression) or a more complex equation (for other
regression models) is produced. This equation allows you to estimate the expected
value of the dependent variable for a given set of independent variable values.
Example: Using the same study hours and exam score data, you can perform linear
regression. The resulting equation would represent a best-fit line showing the predicted
exam score for a given number of study hours. You could then use this equation to
estimate the score a student might get based on their study hours.
In essence, correlation tells you if there's a connection, while regression tries to quantify
that connection and use it for prediction.
Co-Relation
GDP 1.0000
Regration
SS DF MS
Number of obs 30
F(5,24) 314.03
Prob > F 0.0000
R-squared 0.9849
Abj R-squared 0.9818
Root MSE 7.7799
GDP Coef STd, Err. t p>|t| 95% Conf Interval
Foreign -.0434914 .0424524 -1.02 0.316 -.1311087 .44126
Direct
Investment
TotalgovernmentexpenditureB .1784979 .0226305 7.89 0.000 .1317909 .2252049
GrossdomesticInvestment .7753395 4.06 0.000 1.545606 4.746025
3.145828
Inflation .9278778 3.18 0.004 1.038481 4..868572
2.953526
ForeignAidB 7.331359 7.91994 0.93 0.364 -9.014592 23.67731
_Cons -65.42715 24.39206 -2.68 0.013 -115.7699 -15.08442
Conclusion
Bangladesh's economic growth story has been remarkable, with significant progress made in
poverty reduction and development. Analyzing the interplay between various economic
indicators like Foreign Direct Investment, Government Expenditure, Investment, Inflation, and
Foreign Aid is crucial for understanding their influence on Bangladesh's GDP.
By employing time series analysis, correlation, and regression techniques, policymakers can gain
valuable insights into how these factors interact and contribute to economic growth. This
knowledge can guide the formulation of effective strategies to promote sustainable economic
development in Bangladesh.
However, it's important to remember that economic relationships are complex. While some of
these indicators likely have a positive correlation with GDP, others may have a more nuanced
influence. Furthermore, external factors like global economic fluctuations can also play a role.
Continuous monitoring and analysis of these economic indicators are essential for Bangladesh to
navigate future challenges and maintain its impressive economic trajectory.
Reference :
1. https://www.oecd.org/dac/financing-sustainable-development/development-finance-data/
2. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TO.ZS?locations=BGD