COMPRE EXAM REVIEWER

PLAN 214 – PLANNING ANALYSIS TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

Planning Sectors

● Social Sector – Population, quality of life, status of well-being

● Economic Sector – Employment/ average income levels
● Physical Sector – Infrastructure
● Institutional – Investment programming
● Environmental

SOCIAL SECTOR

Population Forecasting

● Aggregate Methods – Used to forecast total or aggregate population, usually for large areas
o Trend-line Method
o Comparative Method
o Ratio methods
o Multiple regression methods
● Disaggregate or Composite Methods

Trend-line Methods

● Linear Trend – take time as an independent variable; uses the slope intercept form y=mx+b where b is the base
value and m is the slope.
o Used when there is an imperfectly linear trend (data do not fit a straight line perfectly)
o Regression line calculated using the least squares method
● Linear Regression Formula

Y= Mx + b

Where M is the slope and b is the intercept.

Constants can be computed using the least square line

● Linear Correlation
o Minimum value of r=-1 and maximum is 1
o If all points in a scattergram seem to lie near a line, the correlation is linear
o Linear equation is appropriate for purposes of regression or estimation
o If Y increases as X increases, the correlation is called positive direct correlation
o If Y decreases as X increases, the correlation is called negative or inverse correlation
● Geometric/ exponential trend – assumes ratio of the size of the population change to the total
population is constant but the increment is increasing

● Exponential Growth Rate – assumes that population growth occurs continuously rather than
annually.
Comparative Method – Assumes that the future growth of the study area will follow the pattern of
another older area call the control or pattern area

Ratio Methods – compares the study area’s population with a ratio variable at the same time. The ratio
variable is forecasted and then multiplied by a ratio to produce the forecast for the study area
population.

● Area ratio method – study area is compared with a pattern area of which it is a part (eg. Region in a
country).
o Assuming that both areas have been experiencing the same economic, social, and political forces
which may influence population changes.

● Component ratio method – assumes a relationship between a component of the total population
and the total population (ex. Birth and deaths, school enrollment disaggregated by age group)
o Ratio/s are calculated between the component and the total population, usually from past data
o Used for estimating current population using current component information, not usually used
for forecasting
● Symptomatic ratio method – Use objects or services associated with population as basis for
determining ratio (ex. Houses, electricity subscription, water subscription)
● Housing unit method – estimate the number of household units and multiplying such with the
average household size, useful for small areas
o Disadvantage is that housing information may be unreliable

Multiple regression method – assumes that there is a stable relationship between population and the
other variables

● Examples of independent/explanatory variables: Accessibility, cost of housing, wage levels,

employment data, industrial investment
● Weakness is the absence of clear causal relations between the independent variables and the
dependent variable
● Assumes independence or non-collinearity of the independent variables

Disaggregate or Composite Methods

● Uses compositional information on population forecasting

● Details of age, sex, and occupational class are used in estimating demand for services
● Factors affecting population change: Birth, Death, In-migration, Out-migration
● Birth and Death rates
o Crude birth rate (b) = number of births in a time period divided by the average of the population
at the beginning and the end of the period
o Crude death rate (d) is defined similarly
 “Crude” because rates refer to total population rather than by age group

Example: Solve for population at 2011

Given
● Population at 2001 = 400,000
● Crude birth rate = 20% in 10 years
● Crude death rate = 16% in 10 years

Cohort survival method

● Takes into account the differences in vital rates (birth and death rates) by using age- and sex- specific
rates.
o Child bearing age: 15-44
o High death rate: 65 + age group
o Sex ratio is 103 males:100 females (Philippines), 50-50
● Cohort – refers to an age group
● The method produces information on the future age and sex distribution of a population, uses the
population pyramid
● Factors affecting birth rates – proportion of women marrying, age at marriage, timing of births,
marriage duration, contraception, abortion
● Factors affecting death rates – Diet, occupation, genetics, health care
● Migration
o Difficult to forecast, definition problems and data problems exist
o Influences- employment opportunities, cost, quality and availability of housing, education,
retirement, marriage, socio-cultural factors
o Classification
 Urban to rural, suburb to suburb
 Short distance - Change of residence without a breaking of social ties other than perhaps
with immediate neighbors; influenced by housing requirements
 Long distance - change of jobs (retirement or education may also influence); typically from
main center to main center

Population Doubling Time

● The number of years it takes for a population to double

Socio-Economic Development

● Three schools of thought

o Increase Income
o Meet Needs
o Build Capacities
● Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
1. Physiological/ Survival needs – food, water, clothing, shelter, sleep, reproduction
2. Need for safety
3. Need for love and belongingness
4. Need for esteem
5. Need for self-actualization

● Empowerment – Expansion of assets and capabilities of poor people to participate in, negotiate
with, influence, control and hold accountable institution that affect their lives; the expansion of
freedom of choice and action (World Bank)

● Measures of Development
1. Human Development Index
 Longevity (life expectancy at birth)
 Kowledge (school enrollment and adult literacy rate)
 Standard of living (level of poverty, GDP per capita)
 HDI – 1/3 (income index) + 1/3 (life expectancy index) + 1/3(education index)
2. Quality of Life
 Involves higher incomes, better education, higher standards of health and nutrition,
less poverty, a cleaner environment, more equality in opportunities, greater individual
freedom, and a richer cultural life.
 Economic factors – material wellbeing, job security, natural resources, technology
(transportation, level of pollution)
 Non-economic factors – institutional, social, values. Political stability, crime incidence,
gender equality, cultural traditions, systems of land tenure
● Social Participation

Sherry Arnstein’s Ladder of Citizen Participation

Citizen Participation Type
Proactive participation,
“involvement”
Reactive participation,
“input”, “Tokenism”
Non-participation
Citizen Participation Description
Citizen Control Citizens maintain full managerial power or
governance over a program or institution.
Delegated Control/ Citizens hold majority authority in specific areas,
such as managing a program or policy.
Power
Partnership Power is redistributed through negotiation
between citizens and powerholders, allowing for
joint decision-making.
Placation Citizens may advise or plan ad-hoc, but the
powerholders retain the right to judge the
legitimacy or feasibility of the advice.
Consultation Conducting public meetings to invite ideas, but no
assurance of action
Informing Citizens are informed about their rights,
responsibilities, and options but have no channel
to ensure their opinions are considered.
Therapy Where participation is merely a pretense, with no
intent to empower but rather to cure or educate
the participants in the ways defined by the
authorities.
Manipulation Where authorities engineer consent or support
through manipulation, without genuinely involving
people.

ECONOMIC SECTOR

● Economic Growth vs Economic Development – There can be economic growth without

development such as when trickle-down mechanisms fail while there can not be development
without economic growth. Growth is a pre-condition to develop.
o Economic growth – consistent increase in overall production, an increase in per capita income;
quantitative
o Development – process in which a society consistently increases the standard of living of the
majority of its population; both quantitative and qualitative

Measures of Economic Growth

● System of National Accounts (Dr. Simon Kuznets)

o Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value of all goods and services produced for
final use within a given period of time by factors of production located within a country (Gawa
Dito sa Pinas)
o Gross national Product (GNP) measures output produced by a country’s citizens, regardless of
where the output is produced. Includes net factor income from abroad (OFW remittances) –
“Gawa Ng Pinoy”
o GDP can be stagnant but overall GNP grows because of NFIA
 o Three approaches
 GDP (expenditure approach) = C + I + G + (EX-IM)
 Consumption (durable goods + non-durable goods + services) + gross private domestic
Investment (business structures + business equipment+ new housing+ change in
inventories) + local and national Government expenditure (consumption + investment)+
Net exports (exports imports)
 GDP (income approach) = national income + depreciation + (indirect-subsidies) - others
 breaks down GDP into 4 components:
1. Wages and Salaries (National Income): This includes all the earnings from work paid to
employees.
2. Profits: This covers the money made by businesses after paying their costs. It includes
profits of corporations, income from family-owned enterprises, and gains from
investments.
3. Interest and Rent: This accounts for the money people and businesses earn from
lending money or renting out properties and equipment.
4. Taxes Minus Subsidies on Production and Imports: This includes taxes that businesses
pay minus any subsidies they receive from the government. Taxes add to the price of
goods, hence they are part of the income generated, while subsidies reduce it.
 GNP/ GDP Production Approach
 Sums up the “value added” at each stage of production or take the value of final sales.
Measures GDP by summing the value added of each firm in the economy.
o Limits/ Criticisms
 Social factors such as lower crime rates, increase in social welfare, increase in leisure are not
accounted for in GDP/GNP, only market activity is included. Non-market household activities
(such as outputs of a housewife) are not counted even though they amount to real
production.
 GDP accounting rules do not adjust for production that pollutes or damages the
environment and other ecological costs
 GDP does not reflect improvements in quality of life or the distribution of output.

● Local Economy
o Exports to the rest of the world are the engine of growth of the local economy
o Imports from the rest of the world represent leakages from the local economy
● Local Economic Accounting
o Labor + Rents = Consumption + Investment + Government + (Exports – Imports)
o Labor + Rents + Imports = Consumption + Investment + Government + Exports
 LNM represents local value added while CIGE represents final demand
 Total output = total outlays

● Components of Economic Development Strategy

o Locality Development (Built environment) – emphasizes physical/locational assets and
address limitation in the layout, form, and look of the community
o Business Development (Demand side) – emphasizes measures to attract bus and strengthen
and expand existing businesses
 o Human Resource Development (Supply side) – emphasizes increasing opportunities for
unemployed and underemployed through improving the skills of the workforce
o Community-based Employment (Neighborhood Dimension) – emphasizes economic
development at the neighborhood level through community empowerment and
“alternative” employment
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