Nama : Yohanes T.

ivan Rafael Laia

Nim : 20357003
Prodi : S1 Akuntansi
Matkul : Statisktik Bisnis
Ujian Akhir Semester
Soal
1. tahun produksi (Yi) Ui Ui2 Ui4
1992 400 -29 841 707,281
1993 380 -27 729 531,441
1994 420 -25 625 390,625
1995 450 -23 529 279,841
1996 450 -21 441 194,481
1997 470 -19 361 130,321
1998 480 -17 289 83,521
1999 495 -15 225 50,625
2000 510 -13 169 28,561
2001 500 -11 121 14,641
2002 525 -9 81 6,561
2003 540 -7 49 2,401
2004 550 -5 25 625
2005 560 -3 9 81
2006 550 -1 1 1
2007 570 1 1 1
2008 585 3 9 81
2009 600 5 25 625
2010 620 7 49 2,401
2011 610 9 81 6,561
2012 620 11 121 14,641
2013 630 13 169 28,561
2014 650 15 225 50,625
2015 645 17 289 83,521
2016 660 19 361 130,321
2017 670 21 441 194,481
2018 675 23 529 279,841
2019 680 25 625 390,625
2020 685 27 729 531,441
2021 700 29 841 707,281
16880 0 8,990 4,842,014

akan diramalkan produksi tahun 2022 : Y = TSR pers 1 dan pers 2

Tren (T) : tren kuadrat, Y = A + BX + CX2
∑ Yi = n A + C ∑ Ui2 16.880 = 30A + 8.990C x 538,6
16.880 = 30A + 8.990C ..... Persamaan 1 4.985.840 = 8.990A + 4.842.014C

B = ∑YiUi/ ∑Ui2
B = 46.520 / 8.990 5.1746385 5.17

∑ Yi. Ui2 = A ∑ Ui2 + C ∑ Ui4

### 8.990A + 4.842.014C ...... Persamaan 2

Y = A + BX + CX2
Y = 572,78 + 5,17X + 0,033X2
Y = 572,78 + 5,17.(-29) - 0,033 . 841 = 395.097
 SR (Rata2 3.3320049

Y = 572,78 + 5,17.31 - 0,033 . 312 = 395.097

Y = 572,78 + 160 - 10,296
Y = 722

2. 1. N = 605:=x10%
= 28% = 0,28
= 0,1
Hg : m

HI : M > 30%

t = x – M6 = 0,28 – 0,3 = 0,02

3. secara acak sampel dari produksi tahun 1992 , 2001 , 2009

seluruh produksi 400 + 500 +600 + n
1 = 400/15.000 0.26
2 = 500/15.000 0.33
3 = 600/15.000 0.4

3 produksi cacat ?
3/15.000 0.002
 Semester

YiUi YiUi2 YT SR
-11,600 336,400 395.097 101.24096
-10,260 277,020 409.133 92.879333
-10,500 262,500 422.905 99.313084
-10,350 238,050 436.413 103.11334
-9,450 198,450 449.657 100.07628
-8,930 169,670 462.637 101.59153
-8,160 138,720 475.353 100.97759
-7,425 111,375 487.805 101.47497
-6,630 86,190 499.993 102.00143
-5,500 60,500 511.917 97.672084
-4,725 42,525 523.577 100.27178
-3,780 26,460 534.973 100.93967
-2,750 13,750 546.105 100.71323
-1,680 5,040 556.973 100.54347
-550 550 567.577 96.903151
570 570 577.917 98.63008
1,755 5,265 587.993 99.49098
3,000 15,000 597.805 100.36718
4,340 30,380 607.353 102.08231
5,490 49,410 616.637 98.923678
6,820 75,020 625.657 99.09583
8,190 106,470 634.413 99.304396
9,750 146,250 642.905 101.10358
10,965 186,405 651.133 99.058103
12,540 238,260 659.097 100.13701
14,070 295,470 666.797 100.48036
15,525 357,075 674.233 100.11376
17,000 425,000 681.405 99.793808
18,495 499,365 688.313 99.518678
20,300 588,700 694.957 100.72566
46,520 4,985,840 16,887 99.960146

s 1 dan pers 2

880 = 30A + 8.990C x 538,6 9.091.568 = 16.158A + 4.842.014C

85.840 = 8.990A + 4.842.014C 4.985.840 = 8.990A + 4.842.014C
4.105.728 = 7.168A
A = 4.105.728 / 7.168
A = 572,78

9.091.568 = 16.158A + 4.842.014C

9.091.568 = 16.158 X 572,78 + 4.842.014C
9.091.568 = 9.254.979 + 4.842.014C
4.842.014C = 9.254.979 - 9.091.568
4.842.014C = 163.411
C = 163.411 / 4.842.014
C = 0,033
538.6

8990 4,842,014
16880 9,091,568 4,985,840 4,105,728
30 16,158

4,105,728 572.78571
7,168

16,158
572.78 9,254,979

163,411 0.0337486
4,842,014