The Auckland Calcium Study

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Osteoporos Int (2014) 25:297–304

DOI 10.1007/s00198-013-2526-z

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

The Auckland calcium study: 5-year post-trial follow-up


L. T. Radford & M. J. Bolland & B. Mason & A. Horne &
G. D. Gamble & A. Grey & I. R. Reid

Received: 27 June 2013 / Accepted: 23 September 2013 / Published online: 10 October 2013
# International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation 2013

Abstract Results Over the 10-year period, there was no effect on total
Summary Five years after completion of a randomised fracture (HR 0.90, 95 % CI 0.75–1.07) or hip fracture inci-
placebo-controlled trial of calcium supplements, there dence (1.40, 0.89–2.21), but significant reductions in forearm
was no effect of calcium on total fracture incidence, a (0.62, 0.43–0.89) and vertebral fractures (0.52, 0.32–0.85) in
significant reduction in vertebral and forearm fractures those assigned to calcium. There were no between-group
and, in a subset, no effect on bone density. There was differences in BMD at 10 years at any site. The adverse
no increased risk of cardiovascular events after discon- cardiovascular outcomes observed in the 5-year trial did not
tinuation of calcium. persist post-trial.
Introduction The Auckland calcium study was a 5-year Conclusion Calcium supplementation for 5 years had no ef-
randomised controlled trial of 1 g/day calcium citrate in 1, fect on total fracture incidence at 10 years. The positive
471 postmenopausal women. Calcium did not reduce total, benefits on BMD and the adverse cardiovascular effects did
vertebral or forearm fracture incidence, increased hip fracture not persist once supplements were stopped.
incidence and had beneficial effects on bone mineral density
(BMD). A secondary analysis raised concerns about the car- Keywords Bone densitometry . Calcium supplements .
diovascular safety of calcium. The purpose of this study was Fracture . Myocardial infarction . Stroke
to determine whether the effects of calcium on fracture inci-
dence, BMD and cardiovascular endpoints persisted after
supplement discontinuation. Introduction
Methods Approximately 5-years post-trial, we collected in-
formation on the 1,408 participants alive at trial completion Calcium supplements are advocated for the treatment and pre-
from the national databases of hospital admissions and deaths. vention of osteoporotic fractures. However, studies of their
We contacted 1,174 women by phone, and from these we effects on bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture incidence
obtained information on medical events and post-trial calcium have shown only small benefits [1, 2]. In the Auckland calcium
use. We undertook BMD measurements at 10 years in a study, a 5 year randomised, placebo-controlled trial of calcium
selected subset of 194 women who took study medication supplements, we observed no effect of calcium on total, fore-
for 5 years in the original trial, and did not take bone-active arm or vertebral fracture incidence but an increase in hip
medications post-trial. fractures with calcium. In women allocated to calcium, BMD
increased at the lumbar spine, and there was decreased BMD
loss at the hip and total body [3]. In a secondary analysis with
L. T. Radford : M. J. Bolland : B. Mason : A. Horne :
G. D. Gamble : A. Grey : I. R. Reid
pre-specified cardiovascular endpoints [4], there was a signifi-
Department of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland, cant increase in the rate of the composite cardiovascular end-
New Zealand point of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or sudden death in
women allocated to calcium. These unexpected findings
M. J. Bolland (*) prompted a meta-analysis of all existing trials of calcium mono-
Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, University
of Auckland, Private Bag 92 019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand therapy revealing a 27–31 % increase in MI and a nonsignifi-
e-mail: m.bolland@auckland.ac.nz cant increase in the risk for stroke (12–20 %) with calcium [5].
298 Osteoporos Int (2014) 25:297–304

Therefore, we continued follow-up of the Auckland calci- measures were obtained as previously described [3]. BMD
um study participants post-trial to identify whether the effects of the lumbar spine, femoral neck and total body was mea-
of calcium supplements observed in the trial persisted after sured at baseline, 2.5 and 5 years in all participants using a
supplement discontinuation. Specifically, we investigated Lunar Expert dual-energy x-ray absorptiometer (DXA), soft-
post-trial fracture incidence and whether the increased risk ware version 1.7 (GE Lunar, Madison WI). Participants were
for hip fractures persisted, whether there were lasting effects seen every 6 months, and adverse events were recorded,
on BMD in a subset of 194 women, and whether the harmful although specific events or symptoms were not inquired
effects of calcium supplements on cardiovascular risk contin- about. At the end of the study, a search of the national database
ued after their cessation. was undertaken for unreported MIs or strokes, and both these
unreported events and all self-reported cardiovascular events
were independently adjudicated as previously described [4].
Materials and methods During the initial 5-year randomised trial, participants were
asked at each 6-month visit about fractures, and relevant
Participants radiographs or reports were reviewed. Osteoporotic fractures
were defined as all fractures except those of the head, hands,
One thousand four hundred and seventy-one healthy, post- feet and ankles, and those resulting from major trauma.
menopausal women participated in a 5-year, randomised, In the post-trial follow-up, details of any fractures, cardiovas-
double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of calcium supplements. cular events, other medical events and medications since trial
The primary endpoint of the study was time to first clinical completion were recorded at the single phone interview, and
fracture. Individual fracture sites, BMD and cardiovascular hospital admissions related to cardiovascular and fracture events
endpoints were pre-specified as secondary endpoints. The (ICD 9 discharges codes 410–414, 430–438, 798 and 800–829)
study design and results have been described previously [3]. were obtained from the searches of the national hospital admis-
Briefly, women were included if they were aged >55 years, sions database. Post-trial calcium use was ascertained during the
were >5 years post-menopause and had normal lumbar spine single telephone call during the post-trial period. If women were
BMD for their age, and were excluded if they were receiving taking calcium supplements, they were asked in what form,
treatment for osteoporosis or taking calcium supplements, had preparation, dose and for what duration. Women who reported
any other major ongoing disease or had serum 25- using more than 4 weeks of calcium supplementation were
hydroxyvitamin D levels <25 nmol/L. The original trial regarded as post-trial calcium users. For these analyses, we have
started in 1998 and was completed in 2005. Participants were only considered the incident event for each outcome. The date of
randomised to either 1 g of elemental calcium daily as the the first event was considered the date of the first hospital
citrate (Citracal; Mission Pharmacal, San Antonio, TX) or admission for that event, or if there were no hospital admissions,
identical placebo. Between mid-2008 and mid-2009, all sur- the date of the first self-reported event. The final date of follow-
viving study participants were contacted by telephone, and in up for the post-trial study was the date of phone contact, and
early 2010, searches of the national hospital admissions and where there was no phone contact, the last date out of the date of
national mortality datasets were undertaken for relevant hos- death, the date of the last hospital admission or the date of
pital admissions and for deaths. Sixty-three women died dur- completion of the original study.
ing years 1–5 of the study, leaving 1,408 women as the
starting cohort for this post-trial follow-up study. Of these, Bone mineral density sub-study
194 died during the post-trial period and 1,174 (83 %) were
able to be contacted by phone. Twenty-nine women did not At the end of the original trial, all participants were given general
have a relevant hospital admission and could not be contacted management advice for osteoporosis as follows: those with
(Fig. 1). We included data from all 1,408 women in the post- normal BMD were given general advice; those with osteopenia
trial analyses, and data from all 1,471 women in analyses of were recommended to take calcium supplements and those with
the entire 10-year follow-up. Non protocol vitamin D supple- osteoporosis to take bisphosphonate treatment. To determine
ments were allowed throughout the entire 10-year period. whether the benefits observed in the original trial persisted after
Both the original and post-trial studies were approved by the calcium was stopped, we measured BMD at 10 years in 194
Northern X Regional Ethics Committee. women who remained on trial medication to 5 years in the
original trial and who had not taken bone-active medication,
Measurements, cardiovascular events and fractures including calcium supplements, since trial completion. Based on
the original trial, we calculated that a sample size of 200 subjects
At trial entry, medical history was obtained by questionnaire; would be adequate to detect between-group differences in bone
weight was measured using electronic scales, and height using density of at least 0.5 %. Due to spinal and hip surgery, a number
a Harpenden stadiometer. Other laboratory and dietary of patients had to be excluded from the final analyses reducing
Osteoporos Int (2014) 25:297–304 299

the number to 194. The slight reduction in sample size does not the flow of participants through the trial and post-trial periods.
affect the minimum detectable difference. Of these 194 women, The characteristics at entry to the original trial of the 1,408
72 had normal femoral neck BMD at the end of the study women who continued in post-trial observation are shown in
(calcium 39, placebo 33), 75 were osteopenic (calcium 25, Table 1. There were no statistically significant differences
placebo 50) and 47 were osteoporotic (calcium 18, placebo between the calcium and placebo groups. Women who did
29). For each BMD site, we restricted analyses to women who not enter the extension because they died during the original
had a BMD measurement at all four time points (baseline, 2.5, 5 study were older, weighed less, had worse renal function and
and 10 years). DXA availability meant that a small proportion of were more likely to smoke than women who entered the post-
DXA scans at 5 years and all scans at 10 years were performed trial observation (data not shown). We obtained information
on a Prodigy DXA (GE, Madison, WI). Prodigy results were on medication use in the post-trial period in 1,174 women. Of
recalibrated to match data obtained from the Expert platform these, 43 % used calcium supplements (51 % of these had a
used for the majority of in-study measurements. Site-specific trial allocation to calcium and 49 % to placebo), and 33 %
ordinary least squares regression equations were fitted to expert used bisphosphonates (trial allocation to calcium 50 %; trial
(dependent variable) and prodigy (independent variable) BMD allocation to placebo 50 %). No women reported using hor-
data for 64 participants from an unrelated study. Inspection of mone replacement therapy.
residuals and goodness-of-fit statistics verified the adequacy of
these fits. Using these equations, prodigy results were converted Fractures
to align with values obtained using the expert DXA.
There was no statistically significant difference in the inci-
Statistics dence of total fractures between the groups for the entire
follow-up period (HR 0.90, 95 % CI 0.75–1.07, p =0.23;
Baseline characteristics were compared between the groups Table 2). Figure 2 shows the time course of fracture subtypes
using Student's t test for continuous variables and the chi- by original treatment allocation during the entire follow-up
square test for categorical variables. Kaplan–Meier curves were period. There was a significant reduction in forearm and
used to compare the proportion of women in each group vertebral fractures with calcium, while the increased risk in
experiencing an incident event over time, and Cox proportional hip fracture with calcium seen in the original trial was no
hazard models to compare survival curves with adjustment for longer statistically significant. When analyses were restricted
baseline differences where appropriate. The assumption of pro- to the post-trial period, there was a significant reduction in
portional hazards was explored by performing a test for propor- vertebral and osteoporotic fractures in those originally allocat-
tionality of the interaction between variables included in the ed to calcium, but no effect for total, hip or forearm fractures
model and the logarithm of time. For cardiovascular outcomes, (Table 2). When these analyses were further restricted to
we modelled the time to first event over the entire 10-year events obtained from the national hospital admission dataset,
period, and for the post-trial period. We explored the effect the results changed minimally (data not shown). We
post-trial calcium use may have had on the results by comparing constructed a Cox proportional hazards model of the post-
outcomes for post-trial calcium use with no post-trial calcium trial period for time to incident osteoporotic fracture, forearm
use in women who were allocated to calcium or allocated to fracture, vertebral fracture and hip fracture excluding the 383
placebo during the trial, comparing outcomes for both the entire women who used a bisphosphonate (data not shown). These
follow-up and only the post-trial period by original treatment results were similar to those shown in Table 2.
allocation excluding post-trial calcium users. For BMD data, we
pre-specified a comparison of the percentage change from base- Bone density
line at 10 years with Student's t test. Statistical analyses were
performed using the SAS software package version 9.2, and all One hundred and ninety-four women had BMD measure-
analyses were based on intention to treat. P <0.05 was consid- ments performed at a mean of 5 years following trial comple-
ered significant and all tests were two-tailed. tion. For total femur, 171 women had data for all time points,
whereas for lumbar spine and total body, 177 women had data
for all time points. The characteristics of these women differed
Results from the original cohort because of the selection criteria. As a
result, they were younger, had a higher body mass index and
Participants had higher baseline BMD measurements than the entire co-
hort, and the BMD results of this subgroup differ from those
The mean duration of follow up in the post-trial period was of the entire cohort in the original randomised controlled trial.
4.8 years (SD 2.0 years), and the mean duration of follow-up At 10 years, there were no statistically significant differences
from baseline was 9.1 years (SD 2.0 years). Figure 1 shows between the groups at any BMD site (Fig. 3).
300 Osteoporos Int (2014) 25:297–304

Fig. 1 Flow of participants

Cardiovascular events body mass index, smoking status and history of ischaemic
heart disease). Next, we excluded women known to have
There were no statistically significant differences between the taken calcium supplements post-trial. In the remaining 963
groups in the incidence of MI (HR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.74–1.45, women, original allocation to calcium was not associat-
p =0.83), stroke (HR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.76–1.42, p =0.81) or ed with an altered risk of MI (HR 1.09, 0.75–1.60) or
death (HR 1.16, 95 % CI 0.91–1.48, p =0.24) over the entire stroke (HR 1.15, 0.80–1.65) over the entire 10-year follow-
follow-up period (Table 2, Fig. 4). When analyses were restrict- up. Finally, in 666 women known to have not used calcium in
ed to the post-trial period, there were also no significant differ- the post-trial period, original allocation to calcium was not
ences for MI, stroke or death between the groups (Table 2). associated with altered risk of MI (HR 0.76, 0.39–1.50) or
When these analyses were further restricted to events obtained stroke (HR 0.79, 0.41–1.51) in the post-trial period. For all of
from the national hospital admission dataset, the results were these analyses, there were no significant between-group
little changed (data not shown). differences.
We explored the potential effects of post-trial calcium use
on cardiovascular events using a series of Cox proportional
hazard models for time to incident MI and stroke. Firstly, in Discussion
577 women originally allocated to calcium for whom infor-
mation on post-trial calcium use was available, post-trial In women randomly assigned to calcium supplements or
calcium use was not associated with an altered risk of MI placebo for 5 years with a further 5 years of post-trial
(HR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.34–1.80) or stroke (HR 0.88, 0.41–1.87) follow-up, there was no effect of calcium on total or osteopo-
compared to non-users (model adjusted for age, body mass rotic fractures, but significant reductions in forearm and ver-
index, smoking status and history of ischaemic heart disease). tebral fractures with calcium for the entire follow-up period.
Secondly, in 597 women originally allocated to placebo for The adverse effect of calcium on hip fractures seen in the
whom information on post-trial calcium use was available, original study did not persist in the post-trial follow-up. The
post-trial calcium use was not associated with an altered risk benefits on BMD from calcium observed in the original trial
of MI (HR 0.87, 95 % CI 0.44–1.71) or stroke (HR 0.97, were no longer present at 10 years. The adverse cardiovascular
0.50–1.86) compared to non-users (model adjusted for age, effects observed in the original trial did not persist post-trial.
Osteoporos Int (2014) 25:297–304 301

Table 1 Baseline characteristics of participants who entered the post-trial and vitamin D prevents hip fractures in elderly institutionalised
period by original treatment allocation
women but not community dwelling women [11]. It is
Characteristics Calcium Placebo not certain whether any effects of calcium on fracture
n =698 n =710 risk persist after supplements are discontinued. Bischoff-
Ferrari et al. reported that calcium supplements reduced
Age (years) 74.1 (4.2) 74.1 (4.2)
fracture risk during 4 years of a randomised, placebo-
Weight (kg) 67.0 (11.4) 67.2 (11.4)
controlled trial but not over 6 years of post-trial follow-
Body mass index (kg/m2) 26.6 (4.3) 26.5 (4.2)
up, although total fracture numbers were small [7].
Glomerular filtration rate (ml/min/1.73 m2) 61 (11) 61 (10)
While there were no significant effects on total fractures
Dietary calcium (mg/day)a 865 (392) 854 (382)
and hip fracture, we observed a reduction in forearm
Total calcium (mmol/l) 2.32 (0.07) 2.31 (0.07)
and vertebral fractures over the entire 10 year follow-
Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (μg/L) 22 (7) 22 (7) up. The cause of these latter findings is unclear. It may
Glucose (mmol/l) 5.1 (0.7) 5.1 (0.7) be a chance finding, or may represent a specific effect
Cholesterol (mmol/L)b of calcium supplements. However, in two other large
Total 6.6 (1.2) 6.5 (1.0) randomised controlled trials of calcium monotherapy,
High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/l) 1.7 (0.5) 1.6 (0.4) there was no effect of calcium on vertebral or forearm
Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (mmol/l) 4.2 (1.2) 4.2 (1.0) fracture [6, 8]. Until the findings are confirmed in other
Triglycerides (mmol/l) 1.5 (0.8) 1.7 (1.0) studies, they should be interpreted cautiously. In our
Bone mineral density (g/cm2) original 5-year study, there was a significant increase
Lumbar spine 1.06 (0.18) 1.05 (0.18) in hip fracture with calcium, and similar but not statis-
Lumbar spine T-score −1.0 (1.5) −1.1 (1.5) tically significant results were seen in two other trials of
Total hip 0.86 (0.14) 0.86 (0.13) calcium monotherapy [9]. This may be due to the re-
Total hip T score −1.2 (1.1) −1.2 (1.1) duction in circulating PTH seen with calcium supple-
Total body 1.04 (0.09) 1.03 (0.09) mentation which may lead to a reduction in periosteal expan-
Physical activity (METS) 34 (4.7) 33 (4.2) sion at the femoral neck [9]. There was no evidence of
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 137 (22) 136 (22) persisting increased post-trial hip fracture risk in our current
Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg) 71 (11) 70 (10) analyses. Taking all the evidence into account, the results
Smoking status suggest that any effects of calcium supplements on fracture
Current (%) 3 2.5 does not outlast the period of supplement use.
Former (%) 40 37 Calcium supplements slow the rate of post-
Medical history menopausal bone loss, but do not prevent it altogether.
Previous hypertension (%) 30 28 The offset of the effects of calcium supplements on
Previous ischaemic heart disease (%) 8 7 BMD has been studied previously. Daly et al. followed
Previous stroke\transient ischaemic attack (%) 1 0 up 109 men over 50 years of age who had completed a
Dyslipidaemia (%) 10 8 2-year fortified milk trial (providing an additional 1,000 mg
Diabetes (%) 2.3 2.7 of calcium and 800 IU of vitamin D3 per day) after an
Previous fracture (%) 28 29 additional 18 months [12]. There were significant differ-
ences between the groups at the femoral neck and ultradistal
Values are means (standard deviations) or percentage. There were no radius, whereas there were no significant differences at the
statistically significant between-group differences
a
total hip or lumbar spine. Dawson-Hughes et al. found a
By validated food frequency questionnaire
b
small persisting benefit in total body BMD but not at the
Lipids were measured in fasting blood samples in a subset of 237 femoral neck or lumbar spine in 146 men 2 years after the
postmenopausal women, and 118 were assigned to calcium supplemen-
tation and 119 to placebo end of a 3-year randomised controlled trial comparing cal-
cium 500 mg plus 700 IU of vitamin D3 per day with
placebo [13]. There were no persisting benefits at the spine,
femoral neck or total body for the 167 women studied. In
Calcium supplements reduce total fracture risk by a small our study, the benefits of calcium on BMD were no longer
amount. Although the findings of individual trials vary [3, present 5 years following trial completion. Taken together,
6–8], a meta-analysis by Tang et al. [1] found a 10 % risk the results suggest that the beneficial effects of calcium
reduction for total fracture with calcium monotherapy and a supplements on BMD do not persist after the supplements
13 % risk reduction for total fracture with co-administered are discontinued.
calcium and vitamin D. However, calcium monotherapy does Calcium supplements may increase the incidence of MI
not prevent hip fracture [9, 10], and co-administered calcium and stroke [4, 5, 14], but the findings of our study, together
302 Osteoporos Int (2014) 25:297–304

Table 2 Fracture and vascular events over the entire follow up and post-trial period

Entire follow-up Post-trial period

Event Calcium Placebo Hazard ratio p-value Calcium Placebo Hazard ratio p-value
n =732 n =739 (95 % CI) n =698 n =710 (95 % CI)

Any fracture 225 246 0.90 (0.75–1.07) 0.23 121 139 0.86 (0.68–1.10) 0.24
Osteoporotic fracture 179 207 0.85 (0.69–1.04) 0.10 91 119 0.76 (0.58–1.00) 0.047
Forearm fracture 47 75 0.62 (0.43–0.89) 0.01 21 34 0.62 (0.36–1.07) 0.086
Vertebral fracture 24 46 0.52 (0.32–0.85) 0.009 10 22 0.46 (0.22–0.97) 0.041
Hip fracture 44 32 1.40 (0.89–2.21) 0.15 29 27 1.09 (0.64–1.84) 0.75
MIa 70 68 1.02 (0.73–1.43) 0.90 43 52 0.82 (0.55–1.23) 0.34
Strokea 80 78 1.01 (0.74–1.39) 0.93 50 59 0.86 (0.59–1.25) 0.42
Deatha 138 119 1.14 (0.89–1.46) 0.28 104 90 1.14 (0.86–1.51) 0.36
a
Model adjusted for age, current smoking status and history of ischaemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease as appropriate

with another similar study [15], suggest that there is no excess from their original study (intervention with calcium and/or
cardiovascular risk once supplements are stopped. The vitamin D over 24 to 62 months) plus a further 3 years of post-
(RECORD) investigators have published data for total vascu- trial follow-up [16]. There were no statistically significant
lar disease, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths between-group differences for any endpoint. Therefore, it

Fig. 2 Cumulative incidence of fractures in the full cohort for the entire follow-up period. Results are unadjusted. Participants at risk at each time point
are represented below the graph
Osteoporos Int (2014) 25:297–304 303

Fig. 3 Percentage change in bone mineral density values from baseline


in women who did not take calcium supplements after completion of the Fig. 4 Cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events and mortality in
original trial. P values represent between-group difference in percentage the full cohort for the entire follow-up period. Results are unadjusted.
change from baseline at 10 years. Values are mean (SEM) Participants at risk at each time point are represented below the graph
304 Osteoporos Int (2014) 25:297–304

appears that the adverse effects of calcium supplements References


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had on post-trial cardiovascular events. Our analyses of tation on hip fractures. Osteoporos Int 19:1119–1123
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R, Spiegelman D, Specker B, Orav JE, Wong JB, Staehelin HB,
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and vitamin D analogues for preventing fractures associated with
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have small positive effects on total fracture incidence and benefits of calcium- and vitamin D3-fortified milk are sustained in
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Conflicts of interest None. Bone Miner Res 26:35–41
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Funding This study was funded by the Health Research Council McDonald AM, Pant PR, Grant AM, Campbell MK, Anderson
of New Zealand, Greenlane Research Education Fund of New FH, Cooper C, Francis RM, Gillespie WJ, Robinson CM, Torgerson
Zealand, Francis and Phyllis Thornell Shore Memorial Scholarship DJ, Wallace WA (2012) Long-term follow-up for mortality and
and the Estate of Grace EM Kay Orakau Heart Research Schol- cancer in a randomised placebo-controlled trial of vitamin D3 and/
arship Trust of New Zealand. or calcium (RECORD trial). J Clin Endocrinol Metab 97:614–622

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