Chapter 23 Probability 2

Key terms Prior knowledge assumptions

• independent • Students can add and multiply fractions.
• dependent • Students know the probability of an event not happening
• multiplication rule is 1 minus the probability that it does happen.
• tree diagrams • Students can list the outcomes for combined events.
• Students can draw a tree diagram to show all possible
combinations of events.
• Students can draw and use a sample space diagram to
find probabilities.

Chapter overview
Section Links Objectives covered Thinking and working
mathematically activities

23.0 Getting started Student’s Book Deciding whether a

pp. 280–281 probability game is fair.

23.1 Independent Student’s Book 9Sp.02 Identify when Finding examples of

events pp. 281–284 successive and independent and dependent
Workbook pp. 169–170 combined events are events related to a specific
independent and when situation.
they are not.

23.2 Tree diagrams Student’s Book 9Sp.03 Understand how Designing probability
and calculating pp. 284–290 to find the theoretical spinners that match a
probabilities Workbook pp. 170–175 probabilities of combined probability statement.
events.

Consolidation Student’s Book

exercise pp. 290–292

End of chapter Student’s Book p. 292

reflection

Topic review End of chapter

Ideas for lesson starters

Starting point check
When to use: Section 23.1 or Section 23.2
Purpose: To recap multiplying fractions
Organisation: Individual work with whole-class discussion
Task:
• Ask students to find pairs of proper fractions that multiply to give .

• Bring the class together to discuss their answers. Highlight less obvious products, such as × .

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Tip: Students could check their own fraction multiplication with a calculator.

Extension: Find three proper fractions that multiply together to make .

Mental maths
When to use: Section 23.1 or 23.2
Purpose: To develop mental maths strategies relevant to the topic
Task: Read out questions from one of these sets.
Set A Set B

1. Find × . 1. Find × . Simplify your answer.

2. Find + . Simplify your answer. 2. Find + .

3. Find 1 − . 3. Find 1 − 0.94.

4. Find 1 − 0.8. 4. Find 1 − .

5. A bag contains red counters and yellow
counters. The probability of getting a red
counter is 0.35. Find the probability of
getting a yellow counter.
5. A bag contains blue counters, red counters
and green counters. The probability of
getting a blue counter is . The probability
of getting a red counter is . Find the
probability of getting a green counter.

6. People at a restaurant choose one of 6. People at a restaurant choose one of

4 starters and one of 5 main courses. 9 starters and one of 12 main courses.
How many combinations of choices are How many combinations of choices
possible? are possible?

Adaptation: The questions could be put on the board instead of being read out.

Probability sorting
When to use: Section 23.1 or 23.2
Purpose: To consolidate knowledge of probability
Resources: Photocopiable resource 23A
Task:
• Students should match outcomes together that have the same probability.
• Encourage students to draw a sample space diagram to find the probabilities of the outcomes on the
grey cards.
Extension: Students could make up four new cards of their own. Their cards should have probabilities
that match the probabilities of the outcomes on Photocopiable resource 23A.

Section 23.0: Getting started Student’s Book pp. 280–281

When to use: As a starter activity at the start of this topic

Purpose: To explore combined events to explain why a game is not fair
Organisation: Individual work or small group work

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Use in the classroom:

• Ask students to work on the questions in the Student’s Book.
• Encourage students to begin by drawing a sample space diagram to show all the possible outcomes
for the totals of the two numbers.
Extension: Ask students to design their own game involving spinners, dice or counters picked from bags.
Ask students to suggest rules that would make their games fair.
Assessing thinking and working mathematically:
Students are convincing (TWM.04) when they explain why the game is not fair. They are specialising
(TWM.01) when they suggest rules that would give a fair game.

Section 23.1: Independent events Student’s Book pp. 281–284

Misconceptions Probing questions

• Thinking that if a coin has given five
heads in a row, then it is very unlikely for
the next throw to give a head.
• Confusing the terms ‘independent’ and
‘dependent’.
• Thinking that events must be independent
when they involve items being picked at
random.
• A five-sided spinner (numbered 1, 2, 3, 4
and 5) is spun twice. A is getting a total
score of 9 and B is getting a 2 on the first
spin. Explain whether A and B are
independent events or not.
• Two dice are thrown. A is getting an even
number on the first throw. Think of an
event B that is independent of A and an
event C that is not independent of A.

Support
• Ask students to come up with events from
everyday life that are independent and
events that are dependent.
For example, having pizza for dinner and
getting art homework are likely to be
independent events.
Extension
• Students could find the probability of
three independent events happening.
For example, finding the probability of
getting three 6s when an ordinary dice
is thrown three times.

Thinking and working mathematically activity page 284

When to use: Within a lesson on independent events
Purpose: To find examples of independent and dependent events related to a specific situation
Organisation: Small groups followed by whole-class discussion
Use in the classroom:
• In their groups, students should think of some ideas for events that are independent or dependent.
• Encourage students to think of a reason why their events are independent or dependent.
• After the groups have had time to discuss, ask each group to share with the whole class one of their
pairs of events.
Assessing thinking and working mathematically:
Students are specialising (TWM.01) when they find examples of independent and dependent events.
They are convincing (TWM.04) when they give reasons for their answers.

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Section 23.2: Tree diagrams and calculating probabilities

Student’s Book pp. 284–290

Misconceptions Probing questions

• Not finding all the routes through a tree
diagram that correspond to the outcome
you want.
• Adding rather than multiplying the
probabilities along branches.
• A dice is thrown twice. To find P(at least
one 6), you could find P(6, 6) + P(6, not 6)
+ P(not 6, 6). How else could you find this
probability?
• A coin is thrown three times. What would a
tree diagram for this situation look like?

Support Extension
• Give students a blank tree diagram that • Draw tree diagrams to show the outcomes
they can just complete (see Photocopiable from three independent events. Use the
resource 23B). tree diagrams to find probabilities.

Thinking and working mathematically activity page 290

When to use: Within a lesson covering tree diagrams or as homework
Purpose: Designing probability spinners that match a probability statement
Organisation: Individual work
Use in the classroom:
• Ask students to think about the questions in the Student’s Book.

Tip: Students may find it harder to design spinners that make the combined probability . Encourage
students to think of fractions equivalent to to see if that helps them identify a product of fractions.

Extension: Students could design a tree diagram that makes P(getting one of each colour) equal to .
Assessing thinking and working mathematically:
Students are specialising (TWM.01) when they create a tree diagram to match the given probability.
They are convincing (TWM.04) if they show that the spinners do give the correct combined probabilities.
A student who decides for themselves on a strategy for finding probabilities that multiply to make is
conjecturing (TWM.03).

Extra thinking and working mathematically activity

When to use: Within a lesson covering finding the probability of combined events or as homework.
Purpose: To use the given clues to find a probability.
Organisation: Individual work.
Resources: Photocopiable resource 23C.
Task:
• Ask students to look at the tree diagram on Photocopiable resource 23C. They should use the given
information to find the probability of getting a green section followed by a red section.
• Ask students to create a similar problem for a partner to solve.
Assessing thinking and working mathematically:
Students are conjecturing (TWM.03) when they develop ideas for solving the problem.

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Technology idea
When to use: In class or as homework.
Resources: Presentation software or a mobile phone or digital camera with video facility.
Students could create either some presentation slides or a video explaining how to draw a tree diagram
and how to use one to find a probability.

Consolidation exercise Student’s Book pp. 290–292

The Consolidation exercise on pages 290–292 of the Student’s Book provides additional questions linked
to the content of this chapter. These questions could be used in class or for homework.

Topic review End of chapter

You may also wish to use the Chapter 23 Topic review (on the next page) to provide formative
assessment of the topic. This resource could be used in class or for homework. Alternatively, it could be
used as a more formal test.

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Chapter 23 Probability 2: Topic review

1) Fiona takes a card from each set.

Here are some outcomes:

P: Fiona gets a card with a triangle from Set A.

Q: Fiona gets a card with a triangle from Set B.
R: Fiona gets a card with an odd number from Set A.
S: Fiona gets a card with an odd number from Set B.

Circle all the pairs of events that are independent.

P and Q

P and R

P and S

Q and S [1]

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2) Lin has a fair dice with sides numbered 1, 1, 1, 2, 5 and 6.

Lin has a bag containing six red discs and two green discs.
He throws the dice and takes a disc from the bag at random.

a) Find the probability that he gets a 2 and a red disc.

……………… [2]

b) Find the probability that he gets an odd number and a green disc.

……………… [2]

3) Karim and Nia each spin a fair spinner.

They each spin their spinner once.

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a) Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities.

[2]

b) Calculate the probability that both Karim’s and Nia’s spinners land on red.

………………. [2]

c) Calculate the probability that the outcomes from Karim’s and Nia’s spins
are different.

………………. [2]

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Chapter 23 Probability 2

4) Alejandro chooses a pizza and a side order from a menu.

His choices are independent.
The tree diagram shows some of the probabilities.

a) Complete the probabilities in the tree diagram. [1]

b) Find the probability that Alejandro chooses spicy vegetable pizza and salad.

………………. [2]

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5) Simona makes this spinner.

The probability the spinner lands on 2 is .

Simona spins her spinner twice.

She adds together the scores she gets.

Find the probability that Simona’s total score is 6.

……………… [3]

6) Give a reason why these events are unlikely to be independent:

Whether Azeeb wears a coat or not tomorrow to go to work.

Whether it is raining or not tomorrow when Azeeb leaves to go to work.

…………………………………………………………………………………………

………………………………………………………………………………………… [1]

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Chapter 23 Probability 2: Topic review mark scheme

Question Answer Mark Part marks

1 TWM P and Q AND P and S 1

2(a) or equivalent fraction, decimal or percentage. 2 Award 1 mark for × OR for a

product of two probabilities with
one correct.

2(b) or equivalent fraction, decimal or percentage. 2 Award 1 mark for × OR for a

product of two probabilities with
one correct.

3(a) A correct tree diagram: 2 Award 1 mark for correct

probabilities for either Karim’s
P(green) = and P(red) = for Karim
spinner OR for Nia’s spinner.
P(green) = and P(red) = for Nia

3(b) or equivalent fraction, decimal or percentage. 2 FT Follow through from their tree
diagram, provided that proper
probabilities are written on the red
branches.
Award 1 mark for their × their .

3(c) or equivalent fraction, decimal or percentage. 2 FT Decimals or percentages should

be correct to at least 2 significant
figures.
Follow through from their tree
diagram, provided it has proper
probabilities on all branches.
Award 1 mark for a sum of two
products of probabilities (at least
one product should correctly
follow from their tree diagram).

4(a) Correctly completed tree diagram (0.7, 0.3 on 1

each branch).

4(b) 0.06 or equivalent fraction or percentage. 2 FT Follow through from their tree
diagram.
Award 1 mark for 0.2 × their 0.3.

5 or equivalent fraction, decimal or percentage. 3 Award 2 marks for 2 × ×

OR
Award 1 mark for × or for a
correctly drawn tree diagram.

6 TWM For example: 1

He is more likely to wear a coat if it is raining
when he leaves for work.

TOTAL = 18 marks

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Suggested formative assessment guidelines

A mark of less than 7 The student is working towards an understanding of the objectives.

A mark of between 7 and 11 The student shows a basic understanding of the objectives.

A mark of between 12 and 15 The student shows a good understanding of the objectives.

A mark of 16 or more The student has an excellent understanding of the objectives and can
apply their understanding to solve problems.

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Chapter 23 Probability 2

Photocopiable resource 23A: Probability sorting

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Photocopiable resource 23B: Tree diagram template

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Chapter 23 Probability 2

Photocopiable resource 23C: Find the probability

Experiment: Two spinners are spun.
The first spinner has red and green sections.
The second spinner has red and blue sections.

Use the given information to find the probability of getting a green section and a red
section.

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