Forecasting principles

Foresight involves looking into the future and answers the question what can be
done? It is a necessary basis for planning since it sets the objective and proposes
the selection of courses of action. The principle of foresight occurs when a plan
reveals such consistency that it seeks to minimize its errors. This is achieved when
they are based on previous experiences and studies.

We will study the concepts of the author Agustín Reyes Ponce cited in his book
Modern Administration.

Concept and purpose of forecasting

The word forecast comes from foresee, which is “to see in advance” or to try to see
in advance what is going to happen.

Then we will understand forecasting as that stage of the administrative process

where it is diagnosed through relevant data from the past and future, in such a way
that social, political, economic, technological, etc. contexts can be built.

Guiding principles in forecasting

The Principle of Objectivity, “forecasts should be based on facts rather than

subjective opinions”

The principle of measurement, “predictions will be more certain the more we can
appreciate them, not only qualitatively, but in a quantitative or measurable form.”

Let's go back to the 3 elements of the forecast to see them in more detail:

GOALS

We use objectives to express what we want to achieve, they are the specific results
that we want to obtain as a result of the administrative process. An objective
expresses an intent that describes a proposed change that is measurable and
observable. Setting objectives legitimizes the organization.

In themselves, the objectives are hypotheses that indicate what we want to achieve
as a preconceived result through the performance of activities and the use of
resources. Like any scientifically preconceived hypothesis, it requires necessary and
sufficient elements to be achieved.

Forecasting must point out and follow them to reduce uncertainty, which always,
although to varying degrees, occurs in organizations.

Although it may seem obvious, the correct definition and proper prioritization of
objectives must be specified and observed since sometimes they are lost from sight
and things that are very different from the purposes of the organization are
pursued.
Classification of objectives

We present some of the most used classifications:

1. Individual and organizational objectives

2. Short and long term goals
3. General and particular objectives
4. Hierarchy of objectives
Some rules for creating objectives:

 Objectives must be formulated as completed actions

 The objective must be set in writing
 The objective must be perfectly known and loved by all those who have to
help achieve it.
 Goals must be stable
THE INVESTIGATION

It is the basis of forecasting, its purpose is to determine the most appropriate

means to achieve the set objective.

Research rules:

 The greatest number of positive and negative factors that will influence the
achievement of the proposed objective must be kept in view, and to do so,
classify them appropriately.
 Measurable factors must be distinguished from those of mere appreciation
 The available factors must be distinguished from those that are not within our
reach, trying to determine where and how to find those that we can access,
their sources, their acquisition cost, etc.
 Strategic factors must be selected
 They must try to fix totally unpredictable elements, in order to find a way to
foresee and avoid the harmful effects that may occur.
ALTERNATIVE COURSES OF ACTION

Alternative courses of action solve the

problem of how to achieve the most
efficient possible adaptation of the means
to the end. Given the contingency nature
of organizations, forecasting designs
courses of action to choose, change, or
alternate depending on the circumstances.