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The Delusions of Crowds Why People

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William J.Bernstein
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群体的疯狂

[美]威廉·伯恩斯坦(William J.Bernstein) 著

王兴华 译

中信出版集团
目录

彩插
前言
1 末日论的起源 约阿希姆的子民们
2 滥用末日叙事的悲剧 信徒与无赖
3 短暂的致富 密西西比泡沫与南海泡沫
4 资本主义的英雄 英国铁路泡沫
5 米勒运动的“大失望” 数秘主义与确认偏

6 弹性货币政策的灾难 泡沫与崩溃的四个前

7 致富空想的破灭 1929年大萧条
8 天启之牛 时代论如何兴起
9 圣殿山的争夺 末日叙事如何影响犹太人建

10 《启示录》的开创者 畅销书与美国核武
政策
11 时代论的灾难 大卫教派的悲剧
12 “被提”类小说 末日文学为何畅销
13 资本主义的慈善家 从环球电讯、安然公
司到互联网泡沫
14 数字时代暴富梦的推手 投资分析师、大
众、媒体与政治家
15 伊斯兰国的兴衰 马赫迪与哈里发
后记
致谢
导读锦囊
版权页
彩插

苏格兰词曲作家、诗人、记者查尔斯·麦基最为人所知的是他写的回忆录《大癫
狂:非同寻常的大众幻想与群众性癫狂》。该书于1841年首次出版,至今仍在印刷

图片来源:维基共享资源
扬·博克尔松是一位小镇镇长的私生子,他的魅力和戏剧表演技巧促使他领导了
1534—1535年灾难性的明斯特末日时代叛乱

图片来源:明斯特国家博物馆
曾经折磨过博克尔松和他的副手的钳子(左图),以及将他们的尸体吊在教堂塔楼
上的笼子(右图)。笼子至今仍然可见

图片来源:明斯特国家博物馆
这幅1720年的漫画把约翰·劳描绘成堂吉诃德
图片来源:哈佛大学贝克图书馆
爱德华·马修·沃德1847年的画作《南海泡沫,1720年交易巷中的场景》

图片来源:©伦敦泰特美术馆

心理学家彼得·沃森于20世纪50年代的实验中确立了如今被广泛引用的“确认偏
见”概念

图片来源:阿默尔和萨拉·沃森
19世纪40年代不屈不挠的铁路大亨乔治·哈德森同时毁掉了数千投资者,并为英格
兰资助了世界上第一个高速运输网络

图片来源:维基共享资源
威廉·米勒早期的不可知论被强烈的宗教信仰和对末日迫在眉睫的执着取代

图片来源:基督复临安息日会数字图书馆
约书亚·海姆斯的财富、社会关系和组织能力将米勒的神学推进成一场强大的群众
运动

图片来源:基督复临安息日会数字图书馆
《午夜呼声》的头版图片,从1844年10月19日开始,也就是“世界末日”的三天前

图片来源:基督复临安息日会数字图书馆
1842—1844年,威廉·米勒的末日追随者组织了125次“野营集会”,多达数千名
信徒参加。铁路公司经常修建专门的车站来接待与会者,传教士免费乘坐铁路

图片来源:基督复临安息日会数字图书馆
20世纪60年代和70年代,打破传统的经济学家海曼·明斯基描述了建立在金融杠杆
基础上的现代经济体系固有的不稳定性

图片来源:贝林格-德拉奇/巴德学院利维经济研究所

在20世纪20年代,“阳光查理”米切尔向纽约城市银行(花旗银行前身)的毫无戒
心的客户出售了数十亿美元的不可靠股票和债券

图片来源:维基共享资源
费迪南·佩科拉是一位经验丰富的检察官,他的质询如此巧妙地让查理·米切尔入
罪,以至于他在美国参议院银行和货币委员会首席法律顾问的任期内领衔的委员会
被称为“佩科拉委员会”

图片来源:维基共享资源
英国突击队员奥德·温盖特深刻吸收了他家族的时代论末世神学,并指导了以色列
军队高层的许多人,包括摩西·达扬

图片来源:维基共享资源

1948年,以色列耶路撒冷前线指挥官摩西·达扬(右侧握手者),与他的对手阿卜
杜拉·塔勒(左侧握手者)乘车前往安曼与约旦国王会谈
图片来源:维基共享资源
1967年6月,占领旧城后,狂热的以色列军队首席拉比什洛莫·戈伦立即在西墙吹
响了仪式性的羊角号。后来,他试图说服乌兹·纳尔基斯炸毁岩石圆顶清真寺,但
没有成功

图片来源:维基共享资源
以色列当地指挥官乌兹·纳尔基斯(左)、国防部长摩西·达扬(中)和参谋长伊
扎克·拉宾(右)大步走进这座古城,1967年6月7日

图片来源:以色列国家图片收藏
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PARSONS, JOHN. Tour through Indiana in


1840; ed. by Kate Milner Rabb. il *$3.55 McBride
917.72

20–19355

The book contains the diary of John Parsons of Petersburg,


Virginia, giving an account of a trip by railroad, by stage coach and
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west, in its political, geographical and social and family aspects
ending with a personal romance. The illustrations are from old prints
and drawings and from photographs.

“There is a quaint and charming flavor in this diary.”

+ Booklist 17:113 D ’20

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surrounding country and in the lives of the great and soon-to-be-
great men and women of the time. As such it holds rank as an
unusual historic document, and is a quaint picture of the politics and
life of the day.”

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+ Boston Transcript p8 O 23 ’20 420w

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flowing and human story that takes one into the heart of the time it
describes.”

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the tale. If the volume is not an authentic record of the journey it
pretends to chronicle, the deception is inexcusable. This does not
mean that the book is a waste of time. On the contrary, it is a
triumph of accuracy and readability. It lifts the curtain upon a most
interesting scene and shows us a fairly typical American
commonwealth at a definite stage of development.”

+ − Review 3:481 N 17 ’20 260w


R of Rs 62:446 O ’20 100w

“An altogether entertaining book.”

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PARSONS, SAM JONES. Malleable cast iron. il


*$3.50 Van Nostrand 672

In this second edition the author has “considered it advisable to


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up to date and adding considerably to its practical value.” (Preface to
the second edition) Two chapters are added on Mining by analysis
and Measurement of temperature; there is also an addendum on
Malleable cast steel.

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methods of production there is no mention of the light thrown by the
microscope on the structural changes which occur in the
malleablising process; nor is there any reference to the mechanical
properties of the various types of iron produced.”

+ − Nature 105:290 My 6 ’20 430w

PARSONS, WILLIAM BARCLAY. American


engineers in France. il *$4 Appleton 940.373
20–16507

The motif of the book is the work of the nine regiments of


American engineers, with one of which the author served. “In the
writing, it has been necessary to touch on all the fields of engineer
activity, because these regiments came in contact with every field,
even if they did not invade each one, from constructing ports to
digging and holding trenches, in all parts of France from the Atlantic
to the Vosges, from the Mediterranean to Flanders. Consequently
there results a brief outline of what all engineers did.” (Preface) The
contents are in part: The new military engineer; America’s problem;
Engineer organization; Ports; French railways; American railway
operations in France; Relations with the French; Forestry; Water
supply; Chemical engineers; Camouflage and other fields of
engineering; Maps; Flash and sound ranging and search light
detection; Artillery; Light railways; Roads; Trenches and trench
warfare. There are full page illustrations, figures, maps and an index.

+ Booklist 17:109 D ’20

“He has covered the field in outline sufficient for the lay reader,
and with an authority that will make this one of the lasting records of
the war.”

+ N Y Evening Post p13 O 30 ’20 140w


R of Rs 62:671 D ’20 170w
PARTRIDGE, GEORGE EVERETT.
Psychology of nations; a contribution to the
philosophy of history. *$2.50 Macmillan 901

19–19152

“This is a psychologist’s appeal for an understanding of what is


fundamental in our national life and a warning against radical and
superficial thinking; it was written during the closing months of the
war and in the days that followed. The first part of the book is a study
of the motives of war—an analysis of such motives in the light of the
general principles of the development of society. The second part of
the book is a study of the present situation as an educational
problem, in which we have for the first time a problem of educating
national consciousness as a whole, or the individuals of a nation with
reference to a world-consciousness.”—N Y Times

“Two chapters dealing with Internationalism and the School and


two others on the Teaching of patriotism are especially sane and
well-balanced and will be suggestive to teachers of American history
who wish to base their influence for Americanization upon
something less superficial than tradition and prejudice.” W: H.
Allison

+ Am Hist R 25:740 Jl ’20 450w

Reviewed by C. G. Fenwick

Am Pol Sci R 14:340 My ’20 130w


“Part two, on education, offers many suggestions that should
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Brooklyn 12:95 Mr ’20 50w

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‘intoxication mood’ of edification. One can not emerge from the book
without a feeling of enthusiasm for something which is critically
important, but that something is intellectually elusive.” H. W.
Schneider

+ − J Philos 17:441 Jl 29 ’20 3400w

Reviewed by Joseph Jastrow

+ Nation 112:185 F 2 ’21 840w

“Mr Partridge has given to the public a book which doubtless will
be, as it deserves to be, widely read.”

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R of Rs 61:336 Mr ’20 30w
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education of nations’—is that it presents, compiled and digested, the
theories of many men who have dealt with a broad complex of
problems.”

+ Springf’d Republican p10 Je 22 ’20


280w
The Times [London] Lit Sup p258 Ap
22 ’20 150w

PATCH, EDITH MARION. Little gateway to


science. il $1 Atlantic monthly press 595.7

20–9285

Nature stories for young children. The author calls them “hexapod
stories,” for they are all about six-footed insects, butterflies, bees,
grasshoppers and the like. The titles are: Van, the sleepy butterfly,
who was awakened by a January thaw; Old Bumble; The strange
house of Cecid Cido Domy; Poly, the Easter butterfly; Jumping Jack;
Nata, the nymph; Lampy’s Fourth o’ July; Carol; Ann Gusti’s circus;
Gryl, the little black minstrel; Luna’s Thanksgiving; Keti-Abbot, the
littlest Christmas guest. A word to the teacher follows and there are
notes, with references to other books. The pictures are by Robert J.
Sim.

“They are simply told without any sentimentality or ‘writing down.’


Good for school libraries as well as public.”

+ Booklist 17:78 N ’20


PATERSON, WILLIAM PATERSON, and
[2]
RUSSELL, DAVID, eds. Power of prayer. *$4
Macmillan 217

20–15946

“In May, 1916, the Walker trust of the University of St Andrews


offered certain prizes on ‘the meaning, the reality and the power of
prayer, its place and value to the individual, to the church, and to the
state, in the everyday affairs of life, in the healing of sickness and
disease, in times of distress and national danger, and in relation to
national ideals and to world-progress.’ In response to this offer one
thousand six hundred and sixty-seven essays were received, coming
from all quarters of the world and written in nineteen languages. The
first prize was awarded to Rev. Samuel McComb, of Baltimore,
Maryland, and is printed as the first paper following an interesting
essay by Dr Paterson entitled ‘Prayer and the contemporary mind.’
Twenty other papers of varying length of different aspects of the
subject are also printed.”—Bib World

“The quality of the essay by Dr McComb warrants the decision of


the readers in his favor. This book is the most voluminous and
satisfactory study of the subject that we know.”

+ Bib World 54:650 N ’20 320w

“Most appear to have read widely. They express themselves


lucidly. They can give reasons, not unworthy of consideration, for the
faith which is in them; though, with the exception of Canon
McComb, no writer can be classed as a trained theologian of
eminence. The volume has not, in consequence, the importance of
the series of essays entitled ‘Concerning prayer,’ which Messrs
Macmillan published a few years ago. The main value of the book
consists in the light which it throws on the religious tendencies of the
time.”

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PATON, STEWART. Education in war and


peace. *$1.50 Hoeber

20–3200

“In ‘Education in war and peace,’ the author makes an appeal for a
united effort by physicians, psychologists, and educators to search
out and develop appropriately the basic instincts and deep emotional
undercurrents which have so much to do in shaping personality,
determining character, and controlling conduct. The current
tendency to try to ‘compensate for personal inadequacy in facing the
real problems of life’ by various forms of ‘wishful thinking’ is
examined and illustrated.”—Survey

+ − Dial 69:213 Ag ’20 90w

“His treatment is stimulating, and any educator or social worker


may read the book with the hope of receiving immediate profit from
it.” F. G. Bonser

+ Survey 44:494 Jl 3 ’20 270w


PATRICK, DIANA. Wider way. *$2 Dutton

20–11891

“Veronica Quening, with a dour and brutal market gardener (who


is also a local preacher) for her father, but also with a devoted
stepmother, entirely free from traditional stepmotherliness, is quite
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sympathy in her career as school teacher, as wife for a time—after
another passionate love affair—of a German; and specially as friend
of Lord Swathe, for there is evidently a kinship between the beautiful
girl and the stately noble house. All ends well with Veronica.”—The
Times [London] Lit Sup

“Harmless and pretty and silly.”

+ − Ath p258 F 20 ’20 80w

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As a whole, the novel is an exceptionally good first book, which
reveals a real gift for story telling and a marked faculty for producing
the illusion of reality.”

+ − N Y Times 25:31 Jl 11 ’20 550w


+ The Times [London] Lit Sup p290 F 5
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PATRICK, GEORGE THOMAS WHITE.
Psychology of social reconstruction. *$2 Houghton
301

20–19443

In considering the dangers that threaten our present civilization—


reversion to barbarism, decadence, ill-timed social reforms, et al.—
the author maintains that he is not taking the usual attitude of either
advocate or critic, but that of a student of ultimate values. He sees in
our present awareness of social evils a hopeful sign, but insists on the
inadequacy of all economic and political reforms that disregard the
psychological and historical factors. No reform can endure whose
psychological basis does not rest on human needs and does not
conform to human nature. The three first chapters are devoted to the
psychological factors in social reconstruction and the remaining four
to: The psychology of work; Our centrifugal society; Social discipline;
The next step in applied science. There is an index.

Boston Transcript p7 N 13 ’20 620w


N Y Evening Post p23 D 4 ’20 240w

“The book is eminently readable and deserves a wide response.”

+ Springf’d Republican p8 Ja 20 ’21 160w


PATTERSON, FRANCES TAYLOR. Cinema
craftsmanship. il *$2 Harcourt 808.2

20–17895

The author, who is instructor in photoplay composition in


Columbia university, recognizes that the moving picture art is still in
its infancy, but says that her motive for writing this book is faith in
its future and a desire to help awaken the public to its possibilities.
Contents: The art and the science; The plot; The characters; The
setting; Adaptation; Scenario technique; Writing a synopsis for the
photoplay market; Cinema comedy; The critical angle; The photoplay
market. The scenario for the photoplay “Witchcraft” by Margaret
Turnbull, awarded a prize offered by the Famous Players-Lasky
company, is appended, together with bibliography and index.

“A model scenario and an excellent bibliography make the book a


complete manual for all persons interested in photoplay writing.”

+ N Y Evening Post p16 N 13 ’20 160w


N Y Times p25 N 7 ’20 90w

PATTERSON, JOHN EDWARD. Passage of the


barque Sappho. *$2.50 Dutton

20–11150

“‘The passage of the barque Sappho’ portrays in minute detail the


voyage of a sailing vessel from San Francisco around Cape Horn,
homeward bound, to a British port. The author, J. E. Patterson, died
before the book was published, and it was prepared for the press by
his friend, C. E. Lawrence, who contributes a foreword. The narrative
purports to be the work of two individuals, and is told in the first
person. The joint contributions come from the two extremes of sea
society—the cabin and the fo’castle. One is an officer and the other an
ordinary seaman. When events are witnessed by both, it is from
different points of view. The officer and sailor write alternately, and
describe in detail all that went on above deck and in the forecastle
during the long voyage. The story ends with shipwreck in the
Sargasso sea.”—Springf’d Republican

Ath p930 S 19 ’19 80w

“The style of the story, in so far as it may be detached from its


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enough, lacking in the ordinary ‘literary’ graces; but this in the end
appears to be a part of virtue. Beside Conrad and Bullen my copy
shall take its place with confidence.” H. W. Boynton

+ Bookm 51:79 Mr ’20 700w

“The book has a historical as well as a literary value. Mr Patterson


proves by this posthumous novel his understanding of character as
well as his ability to write an impressive description. Each officer and
man of the Sappho is a distinct individual possessed of his own little
traits and peculiarities—traits and peculiarities which the author’s
leisurely method enables him fully to illustrate.”

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“Quite at variance with the usual nautical romance, the chronicle is
free from intrigues and brutality. The book is rather long (and
expensive) and is likely to prove a bit tiring to all save those
interested in the subject of seafaring.”

+ − Springf’d Republican p11a Mr 28 ’20


420w
+ − The Times [London] Lit Sup p498 S 18
’19 380w

PAUL, EDEN, and PAUL, CEDAR. Creative


revolution. *$2 (*8s 6d) (4c) Seltzer 335

The authors subtitle their book “A study of communist


ergatocracy,” using the newly coined word “ergatocracy” to signify
workers’ rule. In the opening chapter they say, “This little volume has
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wish to effect an analysis of socialist trends and to attempt a
synthesis of contemporary proletarian aims. In the sphere of practice
we hope to intensify and to liberate the impulse towards a fresh
creative effort.” Contents: Communist ergatocracy; Socialism
through social solidarity; Socialism through the class struggle; The
shop stewards’ movement; Historical significance of the great war;
The Russian revolution; The third international; The dictatorship of
the proletariat; The iron law of oligarchy; Socialism through
parliament or soviet? Creative revolution; Freedom; Bibliography.

“Do the gifted authors realize that the atmosphere of a Marxian


library varied by stimulating conversations with trade union leaders,
is not the same as the atmosphere of a bloody revolution? Do they
clearly realize the difference? Do they, in fact, know what they are
talking about?”

− Ath p145 Jl 30 ’20 290w

Reviewed by A. C. Freeman

N Y Call p11 Ja 16 ’21 1400w


The Times [London] Lit Sup p386 Je 17
’20 150w
− The Times [London] Lit Sup p413 Jl 1
’20 1350w

“After so much has been written, camouflaged and in equivocal


language, it is a pleasure to find a book so clear-cut, so incisive and
so direct in its wording and in its thought. I still believe as firmly as
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social philosophy. I am therefore at total variance with the authors in
their interpretation of the lessons which the Russian revolution has
taught. At the same time, I am glad to welcome their contribution
because of the splendid effect which it will have in clarifying issues
that have puzzled and baffled so many earnest souls during the past
few months.” Scott Nearing

+ − World Tomorrow 4:60 F ’21 420w

PAYNE, FANNY URSULA. Plays and pageants


of citizenship. il *$1.50 Harper 792.6
20–18670

A new book of plays by the author of “Plays and pageants of


democracy,” and “Plays for anychild.” Contents: Dekanawida; The
triumph of democracy; The spirit of New England; The soap-box
orator; The victory of the good citizen; Old Tight-wad and the victory
dwarf; Rich citizens; Humane citizens.

Lit D p99 D 4 ’20 60w

PAYNE, GEORGE HENRY. History of


journalism in the United States. *$2.50 (2c) Appleton
071

20–10538

A short history of American journalism from the first newspaper to


the present day, written by a man of wide newspaper experience.
Among the early chapters are: Historic preparation for journalism;
The first newspaper in America; The first journals and their editors;
Philadelphia and the Bradfords; Printing in New York—the Zenger
trial; Rise of the fourth estate; The assumption of political power;
The “Boston Gazette” and Samuel Adams; Journalism and the
Revolution; Adams and the alien and sedition laws. Other chapters
cover the newspapers of the west, suffrage and slavery and the Civil
war. Special chapters are also devoted to such great dailies as the
Sun, the Herald and the Tribune. There are closing chapters on
Editors of the new school; After-war problems and reform and The
melodrama in the news. Interesting documents and statistics are
given in appendices. There is a valuable bibliography of twenty-nine
pages, followed by an index.

“The story is compact, but it moves to a lively tune, and is widely


allusive. The personal human interest is widely kept in the
foreground, and Mr Payne reveals a keen perception of the dramatic
values of his subject.” C: H. Levermore

+ − Am Hist R 26:107 O ’20 850w

“Will be useful to students of journalism, but it will have an


interest of its own to the general reader as it traces the growth of
journalism with the development of democracy.”

+ Booklist 17:47 N ’20

Reviewed by H: L. West

Bookm 52:116 O ’20 950w

“A swiftly written and vigorously phrased volume.” D. C. Seitz

+ Freeman 2:452 Ja 19 ’21 600w

“It is hard to tell which impresses one most in reading this book—
the author’s sincerity or his thoroughness. The book is very valuable
and intensely interesting.” C. W. T.

+ N Y Times 25:6 Jl 11 ’20 3150w


+ Outlook 125:507 Jl 14 ’20 80w

“He has done a creditable piece of work, amassed adequate


material, used it with discrimination and an excellent sense of
selection, has not forgotten that he had a ‘story’ to tell, and that one
of the prime requisites of a story is that it shall be interesting.” E. G.
L.

+ Review 3:232 S 15 ’20 750w

“Mr Payne’s history of American newspaper publication is well


written and well proportioned. He has made the story interesting
from beginning to end.”

+ R of Rs 62:222 Ag ’20 220w

“Mr Payne’s treatment of the press in the years before the Civil war
is much the more satisfactory because, while involving little original
research, it deals out information suggestively. The last part of the
book is intelligent in general outlines, but is a brief and inadequate
summary and seems less frank in comment. The appendices are
somewhat haphazard.”

+ − Springf’d Republican p11a S 5 ’20 1100w


Wis Lib Bul 16:232 D ’20 90w

PEABODY, ROBERT SWAIN, and


[2]
PEABODY, FRANCIS GREENWOOD. New
England romance; the story of Ephraim and Mary
Jane Peabody, 1807–1892. il *$2 Houghton

20–19929

“Aside from the interest it has of a faithful account by his sons of


one of America’s earliest and most distinguished preachers, it
possesses value as revealing the life and manner of a period. No
conscious attempt has been made to do this, however, and whatever
of history the reader may get comes to him as from between the lines
and is therefore the more subtly impressed. The early eighties, prior
to the Civil war, are revealed through the lives, ambitions, and
struggles of the minister and his wife.”—N Y Evening Post

“A quaint book for lovers of New England.”

+ Booklist 17:113 D ’20

“Because of its very evident qualities of naturalness and sincerity


this little volume should escape the limbo which awaits the major
part of commemorative literature and be preserved among those
works classed as human documents.”

+ N Y Evening Post p8 N 6 ’20 160w

“Told with a simple and natural beauty of language fitting for such
a theme. Incidentally it gives a graphic picture of revolutionary and
pre-revolutionary days.”

+ Outlook 126:690 D 15 ’20 50w


+ Survey 45:329 N 27 ’20 180w

PEAKE, C. M. A. Eli of the downs. *$2 (2c)


Doran

20–18768

The narrator of the story found Eli as an old man in his cottage,
Beulah, on the downs, where he spends his last days carving fiddles,
and surrounded by the few treasures he had garnered from his
wanderings over the earth. He had always been a rare character, this
shepherd, with a rich inner life. Early in life he had married a mate
worthy of him, but it was a short happiness, and then the young
widower took to wandering. For some eight years he followed the sea
and saw many lands. Then it was surveying and ranching in Canada
where an old Chinese cook instructed him in the wisdom of
Confucius and Lao Tsu, but with failing health he turned his steps
once more to England. At Beulah cottage, lonely to the last, but
emanating a silent influence for good over the neighborhood, he
ended his days in peace.

“The author cannot leave his characters to speak their mind, he


must speak it for them, and even reinforce their statements with a
kind of running commentary and explanatory notes which are very
tiring to keep up with.” K. M.

− Ath p211 F 13 ’20 280w


Cleveland p105 D ’20 60w

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