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2711171852oc 8
2711171852oc 8
BRIJESH 0 PUROHIT
V RATNA REDDY
\T/
National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development
Mumbai
1999
Occasional Paper—8
BRIJESH C PUROHIT
V RATNA R^DY
We are grateful to Prof. S.S. Acharya, Director, IDSJ for his helpful com-
ments and encouragement to complete this study. Our sincere thanks to
Prof. V.S. Vyas, Professor Emeritus and formerly Director, IDSJ for his en-
couragement throughout and initiating this study. Thanks are due to Prof.
M.S. Rathore for his valuable help at various stages of the study. Thanks
are due to Prof. Vidya Sagar for his valuable comments. We are grateful
to NABARD for the valuable comments and financial support to carry out
this study at IDSJ. Our sincere thanks to various officials at the CSO, New
Delhi and Directorates of Economics and Statistics of Andhra Pradesh,
Kerala, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu for their valuable help and cooperation.
Thanks are due to Mr. Virendra Shrimali and Mr. Sanjay Mathur for their
research assistance. The computer and secretarial asistance of
Mr. G.G. Rajan, Ms. Rachel Varkey and Ms. Neeru Mendiratta is gratefully
acknowledged. We are also thankful to our library staff for their valuable
help in carrying our this study.
Authors
111
Shri Brijesh C. Purohit and Shri V. Ratna Reddy, Institute of Development
Studies, 8-B, Jhalana Institutional Area, Jaipur - 302 004.
The usual disclaimer about the responsibility of the National Bank as to the
facts cited and views expressed in this paper is implied.
IV
CONTENTS
I. Introduction 1
References 67
Appendix Tables 70
Annexure Tables 88
VI
I. Introduction
During the late eighties and early nineties, a concern has been raised
about the falling share of public sector capital formation in agriculture. With
the presumption that there exists high complementarity between public and
private capital formation, it is contended by various studies that declining
trend in the former is lil<ely to have adverse impact on overall capital
formation of the sector^ This might impede the overall growth of the sector
and its contribution to the GDP may fall further. However, the underlying
tenet of complementarity between public and private sector capital formation
in agriculture has also been questioned by one recent study (Mishra and
Chand, 1995). The main criticism by this study about earlier works is as
follows: i) basic premise of other studies that higher rate of capital
formation may lead to higher rate of agricultural growth is misleading. In
fact, this may depend upon the efficiency of the capital use and not merely
on the availability of it. ii) generally most of the earlier works have
presumed that there exists complementarity between public and private
capital formation without giving sufficient reasoning. In reality, the exact
nature of relationship could be either of complementarity, substitution type or
mere independence, this could be established by means of looking at the
technical nature of investment in public and private sectors and their
relationship. Thus, the econometric techniques for establishing correlation or
using regressions to point out complementarity between public and private
capital formation may be misleading, iii) the data base published by C.S.O.
and used by most of the studies pertaining to capital formation may be
away from the reality since C.S.O, estimates of capital formation in the
household sector which accounts for the bulk of production and investment
activities in agriculture are not only inadequate but also underestimates^.
This is due to the fact that: a) change in stock as associated with the
household sector by C.S.O. cover only the increase in inventories of
livestock and due to lack of data do not cover increase in inventories
including supplies and materials, work in progress and crop output help by
the farming households during the accounting period, b) even in the case
of change in inventories in livestock attributed to the household sector,
there is an under-estimation and c) the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
is also underestimated and the estimates of GFCF tend to capture year to
year fluctuations of agricultural output into the asset construction in the
household sector.
Thus bearing in mind the aforesaid limitations of earlier works, the study by
Mishra and Chand (1995) tries to explain the behaviour of capital formation
1. See, for instance, Rath, 1989, Gulati and Bhide, 1993, Rao, 1994, Johl, undated,
Krishnamurthy, 1985, Bhattacharya and Rao, 1988, Shetty, 1990.
2. Mishra and Chand (1995), ibid., p. A-66.
both in public and private sectors, in terms of relative shifts in public policy
in favour of private investments in agriculture since late 1970's as well as
the political economy leading to this policy shift. The study observes that
growth in private sector capital formation, since 1987-88, has more than
compensated the decline in the public sector capital formation. The study
thus challenges the earlier held view regarding complementarity between
public and private investment in agriculture. It argues that earlier
researchers including Hanumantha Rao and Krishnamurthy have cited
examples which really represent inducement affect and not complementarity
between public and private investment, that too the former is not
necessarily in agriculture but which create enabling conditions in agriculture
like power, roads etc. Thus, in order to measure the complementarity it is
necessary to compare the direction and rate of movement of two times
series. In order to be complementary, these series should have the same
direction and their movements should be of similar orders. However, at the
macro level especially for the decade beginning 1983-84, the two series of
public and private capital formation tended to be divergent. These authors
argued that complementarity should be explored at the level of investment
projects and could be more prominent in the "construction of assets" sub
groups. Even at that level also, probably the complementarity has not been
pervasive and strong enough to determine the movements of the public
and private capital formation series. In the opinion of these authors, the
examples of complementarity should be lil<e public investment in the
construction of major and minor irrigation works and private (complementary)
investment in construction of field channels, drainage, bunding, levelling of
fields etc. This kind of pure complementarity is rather difficult to find in the
Indian context. Therefore, the problem of the relationship between the
private and public sector capital formation should be posed and analysed
more carefully rather than as one of complete dependence by way of
complementarity or of complete autonomy".
The study is divided into eight sections. The following section describes the
data base and methodology. The section IV analyses the trends In capital
formation in agriculture in India. This is followed by a description of trends in
four Indian states, namely, Andhra Pradesh (A.P.), Kerala, Rajasthan and Tamil
Nadu (T.N.). The issue of complementarity in public and private sectors at the
all-India level as well as at state level is taken up in section VI. An analysis of
the factors influencing the capital formation in agriculture is carried out in
section VII. The final section brings forth the policy implications.
The data for all-India level cover the period from 1950-94, Ttie state level
series for A.P., Kerala and T.N. has the coverage for 1980-89. The data
for Rajasthan covers the period for 1980-93. Most of our analysis has been
attempted at 1980-81 prices.
In the four states covered by us, data base has been prepared by the
Directorate of Economics and Statistics of respective states using C.S.O.,
guidelines and as such these are comparable. The exact methodology followed
in preparing the state level estimates for these states is presented in Annexure
II. Generally a comparable break up especially in terms of public and private
sectors and item-wise, namely, construction, machinery and equipment is
available for all these states. However, there are slight differences in further
disaggregation within public and private sectors. In case of A.P., for instance,
the data for public sector covers further sub-classification in terms of
administrative departments, non departmental undertakings and local bodies.
Similar sub-classification in Kerala and T.N., however, omits the category of
local bodies. In case of Rajasthan, however, the break-up does not give further
sub-classification within the public sector. Similarly in terms of item-wise break
up there are differences. For instance, in case of A.P., the construction
component in gross fixed capital formation in agriculture (GFCFA) has been
further sub-divided into buildings, roads and bridges and other constructions.
Similar break up in Kerala comprises of an additional heading called as land
development. In case of Rajasthan and T.N., however, further sub-division
under the item of construction component in GFCFA is not available. Unlike
this, the sub-classification of the item, namely, machinery and equipment is
covered in terms of plant and machinery and transport equipments, in a similar
manner, in both A.P. and Kerala. However, such break-up in GFCFA is
machinery and equipment is not available with the data set for Rajasthan and
T.N. Likewise, except for Kerala estimates of GFCFA in household sector are
not provided separately.
The sectoral shares in GDP are someway also reflected in the sectoral
contribution to country's gross capital formation (GCF). In absolute terms,
the GCF in agriculture increased by 3.44 times from Rs. 1777 crores in
1960-61 to Rs. 6119 crores in 1993-94. By contrast, the corresponding
increase in manufacturing and service sectors was 4.98 times and 4.20
times respectively (Table 2). In terms of trienniums the data presented in
Table 2(a) indicate that agriculture sector's contribution to GCF (i.e., GCFA)
had started declining in seventies. Ignoring the exceptional years (of 1978-
81 and others) there has been a continuous decline in GCFA from around
20 per cent in 1969-70. to around 11 percent in 1993-94. A noteworthy
feature of these sectoral composition of GCF is that despite the increasing
share of service sector, its relative contributions to GCF has been much
lower than manufacturing sector and it has declined in fact from around 46
per cent in Triennium ending (TE) 1962-63 to 41 percent in TE 1993-94.
Pertinently, these trends in GCF indicate that falling (increasing) share of a
sector in GDP necessarily does not mean a falling (increasing) GCF in the
sector. The nature of the sectoral activity and efficiency of use of capital
may be important factors in determining the growth in sectoral GCF.
Moreover, the temporal variations in the sectoral activity may also have
significant impact in determining the sectoral GDP and GCF.
6000
5000'
4000 ~
M
0)
%^
o
o 3000
m
2000
1000
25000*^^pAHWW^^W<^BO0lAtfQM<^co^K^
20000'
15000
M
O
o
(0
10000'
5000,
Public GCF
63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 94
Year (triennium ending)
Figure 3 : GCF in Indian Service Sector
(aggregate, public & private)
•Kir«nA*A'pV>WAMM>
22000
20000
18000^
16000-
14000
»
g 12000i
Total GC
n A
E 10000
\./
8000-
^J
Private G0F
6000
Public GCF
4000,
10
Figure 4 : GCF in Indian Economy
(aggregate, pubiic & private)
55000
50000
45000
40000-
35000-
«
a
o
o
c 30000
M
cc
2C000-
15000.
Public GCF
10000-
500o\ 1—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—i—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—I—r—I—I—I—I—r
63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 94
Year (triennium ending)
11
growth rates reflect a movement in tandem with the increasing growth rates
of aggregate GDP for the time intervals considered here. Nonetheless in
case of GCF and GFCF, despite the similarity in trends between aggregate
economy and agriculture sector, the duration of 1980-94 is marked by a
drastic decline in growth for GCF and GFCF for the agriculture sector. For
instance, as against the fall in rate of growth for GCF from 6.37 percent
per annum (in 1972 83) to 4.15 percent (in 1980-94), the agriculture sector
depicts a decline from 4.96 ppa to 1.57 ppa. Similar observation holds for
GFCF (Table 3). This kind of drastic decline in growth in GCFA and
GFCFA suggests a need to look into a break up of capital formation
originating in public arid private sectors.
1962-63 15 53 38 68 45.79
1963-64 1564 38 65 45.70
1964-65 1553 39 08 45.39
1965-66 16 07 40 19 43.73
1966 67 16.27 43 01 40 72
1967 68 17.02 43 46 39.51
1968 69 18.44 4241 39 15
196970 19 81 4141 38.77
1970 71 1946 41 41 39.13
1971 72 1806 41 64 40.30
1972-73 17.76 39.95 42 28
1973 74 17 50 39 49 4301
1974 75 16.77 41 87 41.35
1975 76 15 76 43.23 4100
1976-77 16.84 42.76 40.40
1977 78 1813 42.14 39.73
1978 79 19 42 4259 37.99
1970 80 19.44 44.51 36.05
1980 81 18.80 44.88 36.31
1981 82 1667 45.06 38.27
1982 83 1500 46.07 38,93
1983 84 1381 46.57 39.62
1984 85 1381 AG.BO 39.38
1985 86 1265 46.23 41.It
1986-87 12.03 46.41 41.56,
1987-88 11.48 47.68 40.84
1988-89 11.25 51,76 36.99
1989-90 11.05 52.39 36.56
1990-91 10.51 &t.92 37.56
1991-92 10.70 mm 40.95
1992-9a 10.86 m.sF 39.56
1993-»ft tl.^ miR! 40.80
12
Figure 5 : GCF in Indian Agriculture & Allied Sectors
(aggregate, public & pvt.)
6000
5000 ^
4000 '
«
o
u
3000'
2000
1000
O ^ y ' T ' " t""'f""t t y....y»>yw..(... ,yii ,^., ..y y,.i.^^v~y„T,^i...,j,,i-, , ji ^ i.y..i,j| |.i.ii.)||....,|.,.-„|-,.i.Y-
63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 83 ffi 87 ® Si 94
13
Based on C.S.O. data (Appendix Table 3), Table 4 presents percentage
shares of public and private sectors in capital formation in Indian
agriculture. Generally in the duration covered by the period TE 1962-63 to
TE 1993-94, the private sector has comprised a major proportion which
varied between 60-80 percent of total GCFA. However, the graphic
presentation of these shares of public and private sectors in GCFA
indicates 1978-79 and 1979-80 as the outlets (Fig. 4). An exclusion of
these two points by omitting averages ending 1979 to 1982 provides a
smooth series of GCFA and a graphic presentation of its public-private
components in Figure 5 depicts a kink free or relatively smooth curves^.
Aggregate Economy
GDP 3.26 3.75 5.13 4.01
GCF 4.16 6.37 4.15 4.73
GFCF 3.35 6.12 5.63 4.96
GCFPUB 4.23 6.49 2.54 4.58
GCFPVT 4.09 6.26 5.51 4.85
Agriculture Eind Allied Sectors
GDP 2.17 2.27 3.13 2.49
GCF 4.42 4.96 1.57 3.09
GFCF 3.78 5.48 1.86 3.16
GCFPUB 320 7.34 -4.22 2.47
GCFPVT 4.99 3.68 4.23 3.38
14
Public Private Total
1974-75 31.44 68.55 100.0
1975-76 30 62 69.37 100.0
1976-77 31.27 68.73 100.0
1977-78 33.59 66.41 100.0
1978-79 33.98 66,02 100.0
1979-80 34.53 65.47 100.0
1980-81 35.28 64.72 100.0
1981-82 37.60 62.39 100.0
1982-83 39.12 60.87 100.0
1983-84 40.11 59.89 100.0
1984-85 39.75 60.25 100.0
1985-86 38.97 61.03 100.0
1986-87 35.90 64.10 100.0
1987-88 33.94 66.06 100.0
1988-89 32.43 67.57 100.0
1989-90 30.40 69.60 100.0
1990-91 2807 71.93 100.0
1991-92 24.87 75.12 100.0
1992-93 22.45 77.55 100.0
1993-94 20.96 79,04 100.0
15
Table 6 : Annual Percent Change in Capital Formation in
Indian Agriculture
As mentioned in Section III, the analysis at the state level has a much
shorter coverage owing to non-availability of data. Nonetheless, this section
aims at studying the state level trends for the four states, namely, A.P.,
Kerala, Rajasthan and T.N. This is carried out with a view to substantiate
the all-India trend by state level analysis for the duration of 1980-90.
16
Table 7 : Gross fixed Capital Formation in Agriculture (GFCFA) and SDP in Agriculture (SDPA); A.P.,
Kerala, Rajasthan, T.N. and All-India (Three Yearly Moving Averages, Rs. Lal(hs)
StateWear 1980-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 Percent
per
annum
ANDHRA PRADESH
GFCFA 24918 28469 35363 40343 49650 56218 63418 25.75
SDPA 387198 447300 474842 505997 502567 551116 667224 12.05
GFCFA/SDPA (%) 6.44 6.36 7.45 7.97 9.88 10.2 9.5
KERALA
GFCFA 13618 15870 17763 20298 22504 25471 28731 18.5
SDPA 157042 179325 208256 220492 233950 249689 281765 13.24
GFCFA/SDPA (%) 8.67 8.85 8.53 9.21 9.62 10.2 10.2
RAJASTHAN
GFCFA 22834 23958 24394 24735 25341 25337 21247 16652 12782 13547 15400 3.26
SDPA 224329 258212 270998 277369 254498 227866 265175 294260 363690 354833 384932 7.16
GFCFA/SDPA (%) 10.18 9.28 9.00 8.92 9.96 11.12 8.01 5.66 3.51 3.82 4.00
TAMIL NADU
GFCFA 21465 21062 20364 17659 21184 23879 25383 3.04
SDPA 199476 227531 252483 312673 353653 389615 414974 18.00
GFCFA/SDPA (%) 10.76 9.26 8.07 5.65 5.99 6.13 6.12
All India
1962-63 to 1975-76 54.53 99.4 83.11
1975-76 to 1982-83 85.43 27.37 45.16
1982-83 to 1993-94 -36.70 53.37 18.13
1984-85 to 1987-88 -14..18 10.18 0.49
1987-88 to 1993-94 25.10 45.17 21.33
An(#ira Pradesh
1982-83 to 1988-89 83.56 33.32 55.67
1984-85 to 1987-88 21.02 31.50 25.63
1987-88 to 1988-89 -1.14 4.86 1.62
Kerala
1982-83 to 1988-89 -38.05 57.45 16.59
1984-85 to 1987-88 -14.41 34.52 16.90
1987-88 to 1988-89 -10.68 8.77 3.64
Rajasthan
1982-83 to 1992-93 -4.26 -55.57 -32.56
1984-85 to 1987-88 -9.70 12.86 3.86
1987-88 to 1992-93 11.67 66.21 39.22
Tamil Nadu
1982-83 to 1988-89 40.34 -33.50 -13.41
1984-85 to 1987-88 0.10 -10.10 -5.74
1987-88 to 1988-89 0.37 4.66 2.38
18
Table 9 : Annual Percent Change in Capital Formation in Indian
Agriculture: all India and State Level
Time period Public Private Total
Triennium Ending Sector Sector
All India
1962-63 to 1975-76 4.19 7.65 6.39
1975-76 to 1982-83 12.2 3.91 6.45
1982-83 to 1991-92 -3.34 4.85 1.65
1984-85 to 1987-88 -4.73 3.39 0.16
1987-88 to 1991-92 -3.58 6.45 3.05
Andhra Pradesh
1982-83 to 1988-89 13.93 5.55 9.28
1984-85 to 1987-88 7.01 10.5 8.54
1987-88 to 1988-89 -1.14 4.86 1.62
Kerala
1982-83 to 1988-89 -6.34 9.57 2.76
1984-85 to 1987-88 -4.80 11.51 5.63
1987-88 to 1988-89 -10.68 8.77 3.64
Rajasthan
1982-83 to 1992-93 -0.43 -5.56 -3.26
1984-85 to 1987-88 -3.24 4.29 1.29
1987-88 to 1992-93 2.33 13.24 7.84
Tamil Nadu
1982-83 to 1988-89 6.72 -5.58 -2.23
1984-85 to 1987-88 0.03 -3.37 -1.91
1987 88 to 1991-92 0.37 4.66 2.38
19
Figure 6 : GCF in Agriculture in A.P.
(aggregate, public & private)
40000
35000
30000 -
Total GCF ^
«
« 25000
c
DC
20000
Public GCF.
15000
Private GCF'-'
10000 T
1983 1984 1985
—r-
1986 1987 1988 1989
1986
20
V a. Pattern of Capital Formation In Agriculture In Andhra Pradesh
The major features of GCFA in A.P. include (1) positive growth in GFCA
(2) a dominant and growing public sector (3) within public sector
administration departments being the major contributor, with nearly 91
percent of public sector GFCFA originating in the latter. (4) higher share of
construction (60.70%), and both within public and private sectors the
construction component being dominated by items of irrigation projects, flood
control, soil conservation, areas development, forest clearance, land
reclamation and plantations.
In Andhra Pradesh, between 1980 and 1989, the gross capital formation in
agriculture (GCFA) has increased from Rs. 20,623 lakhs to Rs. 37,447.92
lakhs at 1980-81 prices (Table 10). The linear growth has been 7.55
percent per annum. In terms of the sub-sectors, agriculture and allied has
been the major component. It comprised 95-96 percent of the GCFA in the
state (Table 11). The growth has been negative for fishing (-0.85 percent),
whereas the other sub-sectors, namely, agriculture and allied activities and
forestry and logging recorded a linear growth rate of 7.78 percent p.a. and
5.39 percent p.a. respectively.
Source: Estimated.
Note: Figures in the parentheses denote percentage to total.
21
Public Vs. Private Sector
The share of private sector in GCFA in A.P. has been increasing since
1985-86 (Figure 6). Between 1980-81 to 1984-85, the share of public sector
increased from around 41 percent to 58 percent. However, since 1985-86,
the share of private sector has been on the rise. Except the year 1986-87,
share of private sector has consistently increased from around 46 percent
to 50 percent (Table 12). A similar situation is depicted even by looking
into changes between the trienniums. For instance, between the TE 1982-
83 and TE 1985-86 the increase in GCFA in public sector has been 60.61
percent. By contrast, in the latter period, i.e., TE 1985-86 and TE 1988-89,
the increase in public sector GCFA has been only 14.28 percent (Table
13). As against these trends, the GCFA in private sectors between these
two periods increased by 0.63 percent and 32.48 percent respectively
(Table 13).
Public
1980-81 39.78 42.77 13.27 100.00 32.75 41.24
1981-82 32.65 36.42 5.17 100.00 39.85 33.69
1982-83 53.49 58.21 -0.55 100.00 26.43 53.63
1983-84 56.14 52.55 100.00 100.00 27.63 56.86
1984-85 56.76 54.69 100.00 100.00 19.22 5763
1985-86 53.87 51.88 ipo.oo 100.00 20.88 54.26
19M-87 55.63 54.81 100.00 100.00 18.97 55.92
1997-88 51.38 50.20 100,00 100.00 14.34 51.42
1988-89 49.64 48.00 100.00 100.00 9.24 49.80
Private
1980-81 60.22 57.23 86.73 0.00 67.25 58.76
1981-82 6735 63.58 94.83 .0.00 60.15 66.31
1982-83 46.51 41.79 100.55 0.00 73.57 46.37
1983-84 43.86 47.45 0.00 0.00 72.37 43.14
1984-85 43.24 45.31 0.00 0.00 80.78 42.37
1985-86 46.13 48.12 0.00 0.00 79.12 45.74
1986^7 44.37 45.19 0.00 0.00 81.03 44.08
1987-88 48.62 49.80 0.00 0.00 85.66 48.58
1988-89 50.36 52.00 0.00 0.00 90.76 50.20
22
Table 13 : Estimate of Gross Capital Formation in Andhra Pradesh,
1980-81 to 1988-89 (Three yearly moving average) (constant prices)
(Rs. in lakhs)
Public
1982-83 10156.06 10032.41 123.65 412.89 245.74 10814.69
1983-84 12009.94 11794.21 215.74 517.09 243.81 12770.85
1984-85 15656.50 15419.98 236.52 786.83 148.57 16591.90
1985-86 16370.95 16014.15 356.80 866.45 132.67 17370.08
1986-87 19058.18 18974.98 83 20 829.79 105.10 19993.07
1987-88 19300.54 19238.82 61.72 670.39 109.04 20079.98
1988-89 19067.27 19082.02 -14.76 688.18 95.85 19851.30
Private
1982-83 13016.26 10878.46 2150.87 0.00 475.79 12492.05
1983-84 12577.71 11386.42 1582.20 0.00 509.83 13087.55
1984-85 12601.25 12487.38 826.40 0.00 443.18 13044.43
1985-86 13141.02 14185.02 0.00 0.00 436.16 13577.19
1986-87 15357.36 16292.46 0.00 0.00 429.15 15786.51
1987-88 16650.43 17485.20 0.00 0.00 503.34 17153.76
1988-89 17390.69 18259.53 0.00 0.00 596.92 17987.62
Total
1982-83 23172.32 20910.88 2274.52 412.89 721.53 24306.74
1983-84 24587.66 23180.63 179794 517.09 753.64 25858.40
1984-85 28257.76 27907.37 1062.92 786.83 591.75 29636.33
1985-86 29511.98 30199.18 356.80 866.45 568.84 30947.27
1986-87 34415.55 35267.44 83.20 829.79 534.24 35779.59
1987-88 35950.97 36724.02 61.71 670.39 612.37 37233.73
1988-89 36457.96 37341.56 -14.76 688.18 692.77 37838.93
Source: Estimated.
Within the public sector. In A.P. the major contribution to GCFA (nearly
91%) comes for administrative departments. This is followed by local bodies
and non-departmental undertal<ings which currently contribute around 5 and
3 percent respectively. However, there have been fluctuations in these
shares. Except the year 1981-82, the administrative departments's share
ranged between 90 and 95 percent of total public sector GCFA (Table 14a
23
to 14c). Likewise, the shares of non-departmental undertakings and local
bodies moved in the intervals of 2-7 percent and 1-5 percent respectively.
Agriculture & Allied 82.13 90.39 94.10 86.13 90.24 92.98 88.25 89.63 87,86
Agriculture 81.76 89.80 93.58 85.81 89.88 92.66 89.54 89.41 87.69
Animal Husbandry 0.36 0.59 0.53 0.32 0.35 0.32 -1.29 0.22 0.17
Forestry & Logging 6.29 3.15 0.61 3.96 4.56 2.43 3.09 2.76 3.41
Fishing 2.32 5.50 1.09 1.33 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.36 0.02
Total 100.74 99.04 95.80 91.42 95.28 95.89 91.84 92.75 91.29
Source: Estimated.
Agriculture & Allied 7.34 0.00 1.64 4.98 2.63 1,74 6.66 1.53 2,60
Agriculture 4.63 0.00 2.25 1.56 1,97 0,26 6.65 1.10 2.14
Animal Hust)andry 2,70 1.19 0.00 3.42 0,66 1.48 0.02 0,43 0,46
Forestry & Logging 0.44 0.00 2.02 2.19 1,03 1.12 0.39 0.18 0,56
Fishing 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.07 0,00 0.09 0,03 0.16 0,36
Total 7.89 0.00 3.66 7.24 3.66 2.95 7,09 1.88 3.52
Source: Estimated.
Agriculture & Allied 1.38 1.99 0,69 1.34 1.08 1.15 1.07 5.37 5.19
Agriculture 1.38 1.99 0.69 1.34 1.08 1.15 1.07 5.37 5.19
Animal Husbandry 000 0,00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Forestry & Logging 0.00 0,00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fishing 0.00 0,00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 1.38 1,99 0.69 1.34 1.08 1.15 1.07 5,37 5.19
Source: Estimated.
24
Components of GCFA In Public and Private Sectors
Within the public sector, the trends in terms of the components of GCFA
are noteworthy. Over the duration between 1980-89, generally the share of
construction remained between 60-70 percent. The machinery and
equipment comprised around 30-40 percent. (Table 15). However, it is
pertinent to observe the pattern of movement of these two series. In public
sector, since 1980-83, the construction component went on falling from
around 62 percent to 35 percent. This was accompanied by the increase in
machinery and equipment component. The latter increased in the same
duration from around 34 percent to 59 percent. However, since 1983-87,
there was increasing trend in construction and it rose from 53 percent to
aroTjnd 79 percent. There was simultaneous fall in machinery and
equipment component from around 45 percent to 21 percent. In the last
two years, namely 1987-88 and 88-89, again there was a decline in
construction from 70 percent to 67 percent. Whereas the machinery and
equipment component rose from 28 per cent to 32 percent (Table 15). It is
also noteworthy that in the public sector within the construction, the
component referred as "others" dominated, which comprised of irrigation
projects, flood control projects, area development, forest clearance, land
reclamation and orchards and plantations (Tables 15 & 16 a to c).
Comparing the above trends with the corresponding trends in private sector,
it is interesting to observe that except for the two years namely 1986-87
and 1987-88, the movements of private sector are similar in direction to
public sector (Table 16).
Construction
Buildings 5.25 3.93 3.18 4.88 2.94 4.52 13.60 3.17 3.20
Road & Bridges 0.20 0.25 0.13 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.22
Other Construction 56.63 57.18 31.34 47.84 66.00 66.62 65.68 66.68 63.94
Total 62.09 61.36 34.66 52.99 69.18 71.37 79.50 70.08 67.37
Source: Estimated.
25
Figure 7 : GCF in Agriculture in Kerala
(aggregate, public & private)
16000
14000-
Total GCF
12000-
10000'
6000-
Public GCF
[•••••iiim,,i,„
4000.
2000- noocaaeoDWO
26
Table 16: Estimates of gross capital formatioh by type of Assets in
Private Sector A.P., 1980-81 to 1988-89 (constant prices)
(percentages)
1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89
Construction
Buildings 39.50 4.34 5.45 6.66 5.93 5.57 4.42 4.48 5.46
Other Construction 1285 42.82 39 86 55.39 60.84 56.13 57.03 54.59 49 53
Total 52.36 47.15 45.31 62 05 66.77 61.70 61.45 59.08 54.99
Source: Estimated.
Construction
Buildings 25.98 — 10.72 17.09 6.20 21.44 4.16 4.93 0.39
Other Construction 0.00 — 7.70 0.38 5.17 7.35 74.39 25.^ 55.10
Source: Estimated.
Construction
Buildings 13.06 24.82 19.17 16.48 19.37 19.51 19.53 4.57 457
Other Construction 4249 28.37 34.17 34.47 34.78 34.49 34.40 82.21 82.24
Total 55.55 53.19 53.34 50.94 54.15 54.01 53.93 86.78 86.81
Total 6.53 9.22 8.33 8.09 7.91 8.01 8.16 4,20 4.23
Source: Estimated.
27
Table 16(c): Gross Capital Formation by type of Assets In
Government Administrative Departments In Public Sector A.P.,
1980-81 to 1988-89 (constant prices) (percentages)
Construction
Buildings 5.46 2.23 0 75 0.91 0.17 2.90 22.14 1.71 0.74
Other Construction 81.35 85.79 24.49 45.40 69.36 78.06 72.80 79.34 79.16
Total 86.81 88.02 25.24 46.30 69.54 80.96 94.94 81.05 79.90
Total 6.39 1.37 6.57 4.57 7.12 4.54 6.75 4.98 4.33
Source: Estimated.
Over the period from 1980-89, the GCFA in Kerala has grown from
Rs. 11,474 lakhs to Rs. 16,648.87 lakhs in 1980-81 prices (Table 17).
Table 17: Gross Fixed Capital Formation In Kerala for the Years
From 1980-81 to 1988-89 By Industry of Use of Constant Prices
(Rs. in lakhs)
Construction
1. Agriculture 10505.00 12422.26 11614.76 9511.75 10282.49 12827.12 1117853 11513.87 13362.45
2. Forestry & 268.00 374.65 153.10 218.13 127.61 116.82 17.34 35.99 20.98
Logging
3. Fishing 700.00 931.46 1168.01 1641.80 1981.09 2143.49 2332.78 2734.68 3265.44
Total 11473.00 13728.37 12935.87 11371.68 12391.18 15087.42 13528.65 14284.56 16648.87
28
After a decline unit TE 1984-85, the GCFA in Kerala continuously increased
(Table 18a & Figure 7). Among the sub-sectors, the agriculture proper has
comprised between 80 and 91 percent. This is followed by fishing and
forestry, which remained between 6-19 percent and less than one percent
to 2 percent respectively (Table 18b). However, there has been a
consistent decline in the share of agriculture proper which has fallen from
91.56 percent in 1980-81 to 80.26 per cent in 1988-89. By contrast, the
share of fishing has been consistently increasing to reach 19.61 percent in
1988-89 from 6.10 percent in 1980-81. (Table 18b). As against these
trends, the contribution of forestry in GCFA is nearing negligible (Table
18b).
Table 18(a) : Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Kerala for the Years
From 1980-81 to 1988-89 By Industry of Use at Constant Prices
(Rs. in Lakhs) (three yearly moving averages)
Source: Estimated.
Table 18(b) : Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Kerala for the Years
From 1980-81 to 1988-89 By Industry of Use at Constant Prices
(Percentages)
Source: Estimated.
29
Public Vs. Private
In Kerala there has been a consistent rise in the share of private sector in
GFCA. The latter's share has increased from around 54 percent in 1980-81
to 79 percent in 1987-88 (Table 19). Except for 1988-89 which depicts a
marginal improvement, the public sector's share in the same duration has
been declining from around 46 percent to 21 percent (Table 19).
Source: Estimated.
30
Within the private sector, the share of household sector in QCFA has
declined. Except the years 1985-86 and 1986-87, its share has failen from
86.46 percent (in 1980-81) to 73.02 percent (in 1987-88). With minor
fluctuations, the share of livestock in private sector GCFA in Kerala has
remained around 3 percent. However, major increase in the share of GCFA
in private sector has been in fishing. Except for 1985-87, it has increased
from 11.29 percent to 24.23 percent (Table 20). A similar picture is
portrayed by the three yearly moving averages (Table 21).
It is also pertinent to note that the household sector in Kerala has been
increasingly dominated by the rural component (Annexure Table 2). At the
same time, the fisheries has been mainly associated with machinery and
equipment, especially the mechanized and non-mechanized boats etc. (Table
22).
iHtedtante^ Boats
t . © i i l fKrittters 25.90 •2&m mm ;2;i.aD 20.01 18.73 17.72 16.71 15.66
2. 'Prawlers 44.06 mm s o .eg© M.T7 57.80 60.92 64.03 67.04 69.61
3. Uners 6.09 AM 4.33 3.91 3.41 2.95 2.57 2.25 1.97
4. Others 5.93 5.04 4.47 4.02 3.56 3.10 2.72 2.36 2.06
Non-Mechanized B o ^ s
1. Beachscine boat 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Plant bink boats 18.02 20.50 18.52 16.71 15.22 14.30 12.95 11.64 10.36
3. Dugsoat canoes 000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0,00
4. Catamarans 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 000
5. Others 0.00 e.cc 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34
Total TOO.O 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Source: Estimated.
31
Figure 8 : GCF in Agriculture in Rajasthan
(aggregate, public & private)
30000
Total GCF
25000
20000 •
Private GCF
15000
M
DC
Public GCF \
10000
5000
32
V c. Pattern of Capital formation in Agriculture in Rajasthan
The main features of GCFA in Rajasthan include: (i) a decline in GCFA (ii)
dominant public sector, and (iii) construction being the main component of
GCFA both in public and private sectors.
Over the period from 1980-81 to 1992-93, the gross fixed capital formation
in agriculture (GFCFA) in Rajasthan has declined with a linear rate of 0.376
percent per annum. In this duration it declined from Rs. 21425 lakhs to
Rs. 18388 lal<hs at 1980-81 prices, l-lowever, there are mixed trends over
different time period encompassing the entire duration of 13 years (Figure
8). In terms of three yearly moving averages in the trienniums ending
1982-83 and 1986-87, there was an increase by 10.98 percent. This was
followed by a major decline by 49.55 percent from TE in 1987-88 to TE
1990-91 and a recovery in the TE 1991-92 to TE 1992-93 by 13.68
percent (Table 23).
Source: Estinated, original iinfermation Obtained from Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Government of
Rajasthan, Jaipur.
In terms of public and private sectors, tliere are interesting notable trends.
From 1980-81 to 1987-88, the GFCFA in private sector remained higher
than its public counterparts. Since 1989-90, however, curve for GFCFA in
public sector has remained above its private counterparts (Figure 8). Viewed
from the three yearly moving averages, it is observed that ug^ the TE
1988-89, GFCFA in private sector in Rajasthan had moved m opposite
33
direction to its public sector counterpart. For instance, from TE 1984-85 to
TE 1986-87 the public sector GFCFA had shown a decline, whereas the
private sector had depicted a positive trend. The reserve was the case for
the next two trienniums, namely, TE 1987-88 and TE 1988-89 when
GFCFA in public sector had been increasing (Table 23). However, since TE
1989-90 the movements in GFCFA in public and private sectors have
followed similar negative or positive directions.
34
The declining share of agriculture in relation to other sectors is more
dominant in private sector (Table 25). In 1981, more than one fourth of
GFCF (i.e., 26.16 percent) originated in agriculture. The same is, however,
around one tenth (i.e., 10.17 percent) in 1992-93. Currently a major chunk
of GFCF in private sector in Rajasthan (around 47 percent) is emerging in
manufacturing (registered and un-registered) and residential buildings (41.49
percent).
Within the agriculture sector, the share of sub-sectors, namely, forestry and
fishing, has been almost negligible in private sector (Table 26 & 27). The
same has been less than or around one percent in public sector.
35
The available break-up of GFCFA, in terms of construction and machinery
and equipment, depicts discernible opposite trends in public and private
sectors (Annexure Table 3 and 4). In the public sector, for instance, the
share of construction which remained around 78 percent came down to
around 74, 46 and 60 percent respectively In 1985-86, 1990-91 and 1992-
93. In comparison to this, the share of construction in private sector
increased from around 56 percent In 1980-81 to around 46 percent, 56
percent and 58 percent respectively in the years 1985-86, 1990-91 and
1992-93. Unlike the public sector, through the changes in machinery and
equipment in private sector have not been so sharp, yet relatively Its share
in private GFCFA has declined to 42 percent in 1992-93 from 44 percent
in 1980-81. These differences in the shares of construction and machinery
& equipment indeed indicate that composition of capital formation in public
and private sector has.been changing overtime. As a matter of fact, lesser
construction activity in the public sector is being indicated by this changing
composition.
The main features of GCFA in T.N. include : (i) declining GCFA (ii)
dominant private sector (ill) major shares of forestry and logging belong to
public sector. By contrast fishing mainly remains in private sector and (iv)
state government departmental enterprises being the major contributor to
public sector GCFA.
Source: EstimatBd, original information obtained from Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Government of
T.N., Mackas.
36
Figure 9 : GCF In Agriculture In Tamil Nadu
(aggregate, public & private)
20000
18000
16000
14000 \
\ Private GCF
- 12000 4
c
«
10000
8000 ^
'^^^^^•tm-mrr-rm-jim'
6000
4 Q 0 0 ^*''>w>««AW»*^iVw.'*r.w iriiTfir>rrfiriinfvviriTf|-iritMn<MirBitMWiiiirrfin
"T"^ T —r— T
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
1986
37
Table 28 (a) : Share of Agriculture & Allied, Forestry & Logging and
Fishing in Tamil Nadu (By Triennium)
Within the GFGFA, the agriculture proper comprised between 60-80 percent.
This share increased from around 62 percent to 85 percent in the TE
1982-83 to TE 1985-86. However, since TE 1986-87, the agriculture proper
declined from around 82 percent to 78 percent. (Table 28a). Similar trend
in observable for forestry and logging whose share in the corresponding
duration increased initially from around 6 to 10 percent and fell in the latter
period to around 9 percent. The reverse trends are observed for fishing
which in the latter period (i.e., TE 1986-87 to TE 1988-89) recovered from
the earlier steep decline to around 13 percent (Table 28a).
The aforesaid trends also reflect the changing shares of public and private
sectors. Pertinently the major shares of forestry and logging and fishing
belong respectively to public and private sectors. (Table 29). Nearly 95
percent of GFCFA in forestry and logging for the entire duration from 1982-
89 originated in public sector. By contrast, more than 90 percent of GFCFA
in fishing came from private sector (Table 29). These trends coupled with
the agriculture proper are reflected in the overall shares of public and
private sectors in GFCFA. Though for almost entire duration, the private
sector has been dominant, yet there appear two phases (Figure 9). in one
of these phases, comprising the TE 1982-83 to TE 1985-86, the private
sector steadily declined from around 73 percent (in TE 1982-83) to 44
percent (in TE 1985-86). In the second phase of TE 1987-88 to TE 1988-
89, the private sector recovered and increased from 53 percent (in TE
1986-87) to 56 percent (in TE 1988-89; Table 29). In absolute terms, the
public sector depicted an increase of 43.41 percent and 3.40 percent
respectively in these two phases (Table 30). By contrast, in absolute terms
the private sector depicted a decline of 50.86 percent and an increase by
13.56 percent in the corresponding phases (Table 31).
38
Table 29 : Share of Public & Private Sector in GFCFA in
Tamil Nadu
Year Agri. & Allied F & Logging Fishing Total
Public Private Public Private Public Private Public Private
39
The composition of public sector in GFCFA indicated that a major share
(around 71 percent) originates from state government departmental
enterprises, this is followed by government administrative departments
(around 26 percent) and government non-departmental enterprises (around 3
percent). In the duration of 1980-85, these shares have fluctuated
respectively in the interval of 62-81 percent, 16-34 and 2-6 percent (Tables
32 to 34.
Agri & Allied 18.61 14.55 17.56 25.35 27.54 25.35 23.92 32.62 24.66
Rshing 1.71 1.29 1.27 1.53 1.43 1.15 1.87 1.38 1.27
Total 20.32 15.84 18.84 26.88 28.97 26.50 25.79 34.00 25.93
Agri & Allied 56.41 64.93 59.10 56.98 49.60 57.59 57.19 45.77 54.65
Fishing 20.08 16.69 18.75 14.50 15.56 14.24 13.99 16.01 16.70
Total 76.50 81.62 77.85 71.48 65.16 71.83 71.18 61.78 71.35
Agri & Allied 0.15 0.26 0.08 0.07 0.19 0.03 0.03 0.11 0.11
Forestry & Logging 2.60 1.85 2.68 • 1.54 5.57 1.54 2.51 3.82 2.48
Fishing 0.44 0.43 0.56 0.03 0.11 0.10 0.49 0.30 0.13
Total 3.18 2.53 3.32 1.64 5.87 1.67 3.03 4.22 2.72
40
Vi. Complementarity Between Public and Private Sectors: All India
and State Level Scenario
41
system. The absence of the latter does not prevent the benefits emerging
from private tubewells. Thus bearing in mind the distinction between
complementarity and* other phenomenon like causal relationships, inducement
effect or external benefits emerging from public investment in agriculture, the
appropriate method for measuring complementarity would not be based on
a regression analysis, if there is a priori reason to believe that public and
private investment in agriculture are complementary, an appropriate method
would involve finding out "the direction and rate of movement of the two
time series", namely, public and private investment in agriculture which
should be the same and of similar order starting from any initial position.
Adopting the logic, thus, we have prepared the graph of the indices of the
public and private capital formation in agriculture at the constant prices of
1980-81 and common base year of the triennium ending 1982-83. These
indices and graphs are presented for all-India as well as state level (Table
35, Figures 10-14).
Viewed from these graphs of the public and private capital formation indices
at the all-India level as well as the growth rates given for the capital
formation series both in public and private sectors in Table 3 and 6, it
could be observed that movement of two series, in the decades of 1960's
and 1970's was broadly in the same direction. The two series had grown
at different rates, however, in these two decades (Table 3 and 6). Further,
a divergent movement of these series is notable since 1983-84. After this
year, private sector capital tormation series is marked by a continuous
growth and the reverse has been the case for public sector until the latest
year of 1993-94. These diverse movements of the two series with
differential growth rates generally fail to bringout any clear relationship
between the public and private sector capital formation.
The Indices for capital formation for the states of A.P., Kerala, Rajasthan
and T.N. are also presented in Table 35. These have been presented in
graphic form in figures 11 to 14. It could be observed from these graphs
also does not provide any clear pattern between public and private capital
formation in agriculture for any of the four states. In A.P., for instance,
although the direction of movements of two series is the same but the
latter have different growth rates. By contrast, in Kerala, both the series
have been moving in opposite directions. The public sector series is
declining with more than commensurate rise in private sector, indicating a
substitution type relationship. Similar phenomenon of substitution between
public-private sectors is prominent in T.N. till 1986 and later it resembles a
positive relation. In Rajasthan, however, these series are moving in opposite
direction since TE 1988-89 with a steeply declining private sector. The latter
is not being compensated by the growth in public sector, thus, ruling out
substitution type nature between the two series. To sum up, at the
42
Figure 10 : Index of GCFA in Indian Economy
(base 1982-83, public & private)
160f
140^
120
100
u
o
M
•a Private GCF
43
Figure lib?: Indeacjpf fiCFIk; In A>P.
(base 1982-8% publics&fpriy^e>
^r<'^*>w•?«<^^«»>;<o>:o(•>>>u<>l*M^w»*
190 T
180
170
160
150
<
u.
O Public GCF
O 140 i
X
•
•a
c
130
120
110-
Private GCFj
100"
"T—
1983 f984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
44
Figure 12 : Index of GCFA In Kerala
(base 1982-83, pUbllc & private)
160
150
140
130
i20
Private GCpy
ou.
X 110'
o
•a
100-
90 Public GCF
80'
70
60 ~1 T
^VAU.oAau«daMie«A.*i!sa
^----^1-'-'--'''--'—^'
1983 1984 1985 198&
198© 1987 1988 1989
45
Figure 13 : Index of GCFA in Rajasthan
(base 1982-83, public & private)
140 '
100
u
o 80 •':
»
C
40
20 L 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
46
Figure 14 : Index of GCFA in Tamil Nadu
(base 1982-83, public & private)
150
140
Public GCF
130^
120
110
2
o
100
X
•o
c 90
'\ Private GCF
80
70
60 •
50 \y
40 T
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
47
aggregate level the above analysis does not provide any clear cut evidence
regarding the relationship between public and private capital formation in
agriculture at the all-India as well as at the state level. Therefore, it is
necessary to examine the relationship using more rigorous techniques like
regression analysis. Though simple regression analysis is not sufficient to
prove ^ e complementarity argument, it would at least help in understanding
the existing relation (causal) between public and private capital formation in
agriculture.
Source: C.S.O. Data, Appendix Table 3, 13, 21, 23, 30 & 31..
Note : Blanks in the above table indicates non-availability of data.
48
Here our intention is to establish the kind of relationship that is existing
between public and private investment at the all India level and state level.
So far, the attempts at all-India level have been used to indicate and
analyse phenomenon such as complementarity. It is also pertinent, however
to carry out state level analysis to determine whether the direction of public
investment policies in agriculture in the states covered by us follow the all-
India trends. Such a comparative analysis will highlight the significance of
state specific variation in agriculture policies in influencing the direction of
public-private investments in agriculture. The purpose is to examine whether
the regional picture commensurates with the macro picture.
For this purpose we have estimated, the elasticity coeiildent between public
and private investment at the all India level and for the four selected states
using the following functional form:
Our estimated elasticity for all India is -0.97 and significant at 1 percent
level. This indicates the strengthening of the phenomenon of substituability
between public and private capital during the process of liberalisation, as
the elasticity for the period 1980-81 to 1991-92 was estimated at -0.50 by
Mishra and Chand (1997). But, our state level estimates provide a different
picture. For all the states the estimated elasticities are positive and also
significant for two states. One reason for this opposite trend could be the
difference in the time period. Even in this regard Ihe elasticity estimate for
Rajasthan, for which we have the data till 1992-93, does not support the
all India picture. The positive elasticity at the state level indicates a
complimentarity or inducement effect of the public investment on private
investment.
49
the substitutability argument are not addressed in the literature. In what
follows here, we highlight some of the important aspects of public capital
formation in agriculture in an attempt to negate the substitutability of public
investment with private investment. Two important features of public capital
formation are i) creation of public goods, and ii) core investment. As
evident from number of studies a large portiori of capital formation in
agriculture goes towards irrigation development. While the public capital
formation in agriculture goes toward large and medium irrigation, private
capital is invested on well irrigation. Of these two the former is community
based and equitably distributed than the private capital which is mainly
individual based. Similarly, private capital flows as they are guided by profit
maximisation, tend to concentrate in better endowed regions leading to
regional inequalities. Though these arguments call for an indepth and
disaggregate analysis at the regional level, our state level analysis provides
some insights in this regard. Of our selected states, agriculturally more
developed states like A.P. and T.N. have shown an increase in private
capital formation along with the public capital formation. On the other hand,
there is no such correspondence in the case of agriculturally backward
states like Rajasthan and Kerala. This indicates that private investment is
not coming forward even to the extent of inducement effect, let alone
substituting the public investment. If one looks at the investment pattern of
public and private capital formation, it is glaringly evident that some of the
important areas like forestry are totally left out by private sector. While it is
irrational to expect private investment in forestry in the existing institutional
set up, it is unwise to neglect such important areas under the disguise of
minimising public investment. But for the public capital, creation of
environmental goods will come to a standstill. On the contrary, ona can
observe environmentally unfriendly investments in the private domine such
as increasing investments in ground water exploitation with least concern for
its development and investments in fisheries which focus on increasing short
run yields rather than sustainable yields. This kind of investments not only
disturbs the ecological balance but also aggravate inequity.
50
economic context. Indian agriculture which is small farmers dominated is not
ready for such a takeover as it will pauperise these small and marginal
farmers. Even for freeing the land lease market, that is being debated
presently at the central level, it is argued that there has to be a ceiling on
the extent of land leased in so that the entry of corporate sector is
checked. Even if free entry is allowed to corporate sector, its entry will be
limited to potential areas leaving the less endowed regions to their own
fate. This has happened even in western agriculture where the subsistence
agriculture terrains are protected (subsidised) by the state as it is not
lucerative for the corporate sector. Therefore, the role of corporate sector in
Indian agriculture in promoting capital formation in agriculture is rather
limited in the present context. Even in the event of limited entry of
corporate sector into agriculture, it can not substitute public capital
formation, especially in terms of its impacts.
Thus, the preceding discussion emphasises the need for public capital
formation in agriculture in the given socio-economic conditions irrespective of
the nature of relationship it has with private capital formation. It is
necessary not only to induce or boost the private investment but also due
to the fact it can not be substituted in certain areas. In this regard the
recent budgetary thrust towaards agriculture is in the right direction. Unless
agriculture sector is receives a major boost in terms of productive
investments such as irrigation and infrastructure development, it would be
highly unlikely to achieve the targeted growth rates in the long run. And it
would be rather optimistic to expect such massive investments from the
private sector.
In this background, there emerge the following two pertinent questions: (i)
what are the factors which influence public as well as private capital
formation in Indian agriculture? and (ii) what could be the policy options to
strengthen the process of capital formation specifically keeping in view the
ongoing process of liberalisation in Indian economy? The answers to
second question partly emerge indeed from an analysis of the factors
influencing public-private capital formation. In this regard, it is pertinent to
51
observe that earlier studies have focussed their attention on explaining
various factors that might have led to a decline in public sector capital
formation. Thus, at the all-India level, presuming complementarity between
public and private sectors, the falling GFCFA in public sector has been
explained in terms of : (i) decline in the proportion of expenditure on
agriculture and allied sector in the aggregate (plan and non-plan)
expenditure of the centre and states and (ii) fast growth of agriculture
subsidies or rising proportion of expenditure on revenue account (Shetty,
1990; Rao, 1994). Raising doubts about the presumed complementarity
between public and private sectors, the decline in public sector GFCFA at
the all-India level has been explained, however, in terms of political
economy of agriculture policies which led to public financing of private
sector GFCFA (Mishra and Chand, 1995). Therefore, in analysing the
factors responsible for decline in the public sector capital formation we
proceed with the assumption of an absence of complementarity between
public and private capital formation. Since the budgetary outlay forms the
basis of public investment in agriculture, firstly we examine whether there
has been a considerable decline in this outlay and further proceed in this
section to analyse price and non-price factors influencing the process of
capital formation in Indian agriculture.
52
Table 36 : Expenditure on Agriculture and Irrigation by Central and State Governments
(Rs. crores)
Aaareoate to Disbursements of Central and State Govemments
Excluding GDP Origina-
Interest Pay- ting in Agri-
Revenue Account Capital Account Total Total ments Sub- culture at (4) as (3) as (8) as (8) as
Year Agri- Irrigation Total Agri- Inigation Total Col. sidies and Current percent percent percent percent
culture culture 4+7 Defence Prices of (8) of (6) of (10) Of (11)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15)
1970-71 173 59 232 1 296 297 529 8847 6838 16821 43.86 19.93 7.74 3.14
1971-72 216 69 285 2 348 350 635 10511 8044 17105 44.88 19.83 7.89 3.71
1972-73 161 238 399 19 348 367 766 12319 9547 18772 52.09 68.39 8:02 4.08
1973-74 167 260 427 11 349 360 787 13482 10407 24836 54.26 74.50 7.56 3.17
1974-75 230 382 612 340 551 891 1603 16255 12533 27057 38.18 69.33 12.79 5.92
en 1975-76 292 435 727 350 659 1009 1736 19912 15500 26651 41.88 66.01 11.20 6.51
CO
1976-77 410 486 896 46 939 985 1881 22298 17029 27105 47.63 51.76 11.05 6.94
1977-78 518 574 1092 -63 1135 1072 2164 24422 18544 32238 50.46 50.57 11.67 6.71
1978-79 659 717 1376 128 1327 1455 2831 28194 21504 32815 48.60 54.03 13.16 8.63
1979-BO 628 792 1420 293 1506 1799 3219 31670 23838 33586 44.11 52.59 13.50 9.58
1980-81 720 928 1648 344 1675 2019 3667 39160 30247 42466 44.94 55.40 12.12 8.64
1981-82 871 1059 1930 149 1864 2013 5591 44479 34057 47736 34.52 56.81 16.42 11.71
1982-83 1002 1167 2169 84 1979 2063 4232 52057 39645 50527 51.25 58.97 10.67 8.38
1983-84 1219 1409 2628 163 2196 2859 4987 59989 45157 61241 52.70 64.16 11.04 8.14
1984-85 1390 1574 2964 751 2428 3179 6143 71654 53637 65135 48.25 64.83 11.45 9.43
1985-86 3300 2097 5397 639 2681 3320 8717 84470 62677 69911 61.91 78.22 13.91 12.47
1986-87 4011 2674 6685 -49 2880 2831 9516 101602 74975 74438 70.25 92.85 12.69 12,78
1987-88 3855 3102 6957 -80 3057 2977 9934 111162 80174 81458 70.03 101.47 12.39 12.20
1988-89 4584 3595 8179 73 3234 3307 11486 129231 91970 — 71.21 111.16 12.49 —
Source: Shetty, S.L . 1990, "Investment in Agriculture, Brief Review of Recent Trends'. Economic and Political Weeklyi, February 17-24.
plan periods. As depicted in Table 37, in the third to fifth plan periods, the
expenditure on agriculture and irrigation increased from 20.50 percent to 22
percent with slightly higher variation in the intervening plans. Since 1980-81,
however, the plan allocations under rural development and special area
development programmes have been listed separately and the allocations
under the heads of agriculture and irrigation combinedly appears to be
reduced. But as Mishra and Chand (1995) have argued, a large proportion
of rural development expenditure (nearly 68 percent and 57 percent
respectively in sixth and seventh plans) is being spent on IRDP and nearly
55 percent of the latter goes towards asset formation in agriculture and
allied sectors and, therefore, combining these separate heads of expenditure
in latter periods of sixth and seventh plans, we find that the total plan
expenditure on the sector has remained almost of the same magnitude. It,
thus, comprised nearly 24 percent and 22 percent in the sixth and seventh
plan periods (Table 37).
54
Therefore, the cause of decline in public sector capital formation does not
lie with a reduced budgetary allocation. It is probably due to the fact that
this allocation is moving over time more towards current account side. As
depicted in Table 36, in the total expenditure by the government, indeed
the share of revenue expenditure has been continuously increasing. The
latter, in fact, increased from around 44 percent (in 1970-71) to 71 percent
(in 1988-89), implying a lower availability of funds for investment purposes.
A similar situation of rising share of revenue expenditure on agriculture and
allied activities is depicted for the states of A.P., Kerala, Rajasthan and
Tamil Nadu (Appendix Table 4 & 5). Over the years 1980-93, it increased
its share from nearly 91 to 97 percent, 90 to 93 percent, 92 to 94 percent
and 89 to 97 percent respectively in the above states. Moreover, in the
states of A.P., Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the total budgetary expenditure on
the sector as a proportion of GDPA has also declined and fell from 5 to 3
per cent (in 1980-93), 7 to 4 percent (in 1980-89) and 9 to 7 per cent (in
1980-98) respectively. Thus, unlike the all-India trend, the factor of declining
proportion of total outlay on agriculture and allied sectors relative to the
SDP in these states might have been additionally responsible for the
decline in public sector capital formation in agriculture.
55
relatively higher than the sectoral growth in fixed capital Formation. Thus,
despite a decline in real capital formation in absolute terms, efficiency in its
use has improved in the eighties relative to the period of 1970's.
Likewise there has been a rising trend in the ratios of gross fixed capital
formation to sectoral GDP in agriculture in percentage terms. The latter
increased from 7.5 percent (in fourth plan) in 9.15 percent (in sixth plan).
Though there has been a decline in this ratio to 8.02 percent in seventh
plan, yet for the entire duration of eighties (1980-81 to 1989-90) it depicts
an improvement over the earlier plan periods. The available information for
the sixth and seventh five year plan pertaining to marginal efficiency of
capital in agriculture presented in Table 38 for the states with the exception
of T.N., however, do not corroborate the improved efficiency of capital
depicted at the all-India level. It could be observed that despite the
declining GFCFA, its percentage in agriculture sector's SOP has been
increasing in all the states. For instance in A.P., this percentage increased
from VI plan to VII plan from 6.78 percent to 9.41 percent. Likewise in
Kerala it increased from 8.67 percent to 9.84 percent. However in
Rajasthan and T.N. it depicted a decline respectively from 8.59 percent to
7.12 percent and 9.25 percent to 5.99 percent.
56
Generally the ICOR has been increasing for the states. For instance
between the Vl and VII plans the ICOR in A.P., Kerala, Rajasthan, has
increased respectively from .675 to 1.089, from .615 to 1.319 and from
1.036 to 4.87. By contrast, in T.N. the ICOR declined in the same duration
from .791 to .542. Thus, as against all-India trend, the marginal efficiency
of capital in agriculture has declined in A.P., Kerala and Rajasthan.
However, in order to reflect upon the role of technology and terms of trade
we have to bear in mind a synoptic view of agricultural development in the
country with a focus on these two parameters. Broadly it could be noted
that the process of adoption of new technology basically took off since
1964-65. More particularly, some studies have preferred to designate the
period from 1978-79 to 1990-91 as modernisation phase owing to
increasing capacity utilisation in Indian agriculture (Dholkias, 1993). The
share of modern inputs of intermediate consumption like fertiliser, pesticides,
electricity and diesel as well as capital intensity (i.e., net fixed capital stocks
per hectare) has been increasing with the increased adoption of technology.
57
The former of these, for instance, increased their share from 2.58 percent
(in 1952-53 to 1964-65), to 16.83 percent (in 1967-68 to 1977-78) and to
29.18 percent (in 1978-79 to 1991-92) (Mishra and Hazell, 1996). Likewise,
capital intensity in the above duration increased from Rs. 2552 per hectare
to Rs. 3440 per hectare and to Rs. 4793 per hectare. In the wake of
adoption of technology, there was also a simultaneous improvement in
productivity for all crops. The latter increased from 1.71 per cent per
annum to 4.23 per cent and 3.77 per cent per annum in the respective
durations.
58
(I) %GCFA,, = 1.595489 + 0.134861 GTOT,*
(2.41) (0.036)
R=^ = 0.33; N = 30; OF = 28 (Period 1962-63 to 1991-92)
Note: Figures in brackets are standard errors. * and ** indicate levels of significance at 1 and 10 percent
levels respectively.
59
thus, if the self-sustaining growth in farmers income could be maintained
either by managing favourable terms of trade or enhancement of
productivity through appropriate policy support including subsidised
technological know how and institutional credit for adoption of upgraded
technology, the compensatory growth in private sector capital formation
would also be sustained in future.
60
with the increasing spate of reforms. These far reaching changes are likely
to adversely affect credit flows to agriculture.
Average of
(1) Green revolution Perbd :
(169/70 to 1979/80) 29.34
61
agriculture sector (Economic Survey, 1994-95, p. 129). Therefore, in order
to maintain the lending to agriculture sector at the current level such that
the process of private capital formation is not hampered, it is necessary to
"put in place an institutional structure by reforming, rationalising and
reorganising the existing ones, which is viable, efficient, observes the
prudential norms, mobilises rural savings and meets the increasing credit
needs of the agriculture and allied activities in a competitive financial market
environment" (Mishra, p. A. 21, 1997).
Even while refuting the complimentarity between the public and private
investment, the role of public investment in terms of infrastructure especially
in irrigation cannot be undermined. In fact, public infrastructure provides the
necessary support for agrarian development. There have been many
empirical studies favouring the positive and promotional impact of public
investment on its private counterpart. Most of the studies working within a
multiple regression framework estimate the elasticity of private investment
with respect to public investment in the range of 0.26 to 0.90. For
instance, earlier studies of Krishnamurthy (1985) and Chakarvarty (1987)
estimated this elasticity to be 0.60 and 0.62 respectively. Shetty (1990) for
the period 1960-87 found it to be 0.66, whereas Storm (1993) reported it
to be 0.904 for 1962-86. More recently NCAER (1995) for the period 1960-
90 and joint research team of Institute of Economic Growth and Delhi
School of Economics (1994) estimated it to be 0.26 and 0.98 respectively.
Another cross section analysis of 17 states for the year 1981-82,
establishes the elasticity of private investment on canal irrigation to be 0.25
(Dhawan, 1996). By contrast, for the period 1980-92, Mishra and Chand
(1995) find this elasticity as -0.50. These differences in the magnitude of
elasticity are possibly owing to nature of specifications and period coverage.
For instance, like Mishra and Chand (1995), not working within a multiple
regression framework and regressing private on public investment, Mishra
and Hazell (1996) found these estimates for elasticity as 1.551, 0.688 and
-0.313 for the periods respectively of 1960-70, 1970-80 and 1980-90. Thus,
despite the fact that there is an absence of complementarity between public
and private investments in agriculture, all these estimates of elasticity
establish that there is a significant relationship between public investment in
agriculture and private investment by the farmers.
62
farmer dominant. In fact the proportion of small farmers is on the rise.
Liberalisation is resulting in a rise in input costs. Though output prices are
also on the rise, small and marginal farmers with their limited marketable
surplus are not in a position to share the price gains. As a result these
farmers are increasingly becoming non-viable. As long as enough alternative
sources of income (employment) are not available, this large majority of
people will tend to join the ranks of unemployed and under-employed. And
liberalisation does not seem to result in creation of such massive
employment in the near future (Reddy, 1996).
63
may be prevalent and the repercussions of withdrawal are not against the
interest of poor (Acharya, 1997a, b).
64
It is important to recognise that despite more and more liberal policy
environment for private investment in agriculture, the public investment need
to be stepped up in certain areas. Especially the major and medium
irrigation in the country need to be enhanced. As suggested by the
Committee on Pricing of irrigation Water (1994), about 90 percent of the
ultimate groundwater potential had been utilised by 1990 and this source of
irrigation, in fact, formed the basis of private minor irrigation investment in
the past. The area of major and minor irrigation solely falls on public sector
and hence supports our non-substitutability argument.
In the light of our findings it is worth pointing out that the state
government's policies in regard to expenditure on agriculture sector does
not have an important role to influence the public sector capital formation in
agriculture. It is evident that in the states covered by us there has been a
declining trend in budgetary outlay on agriculture. The latter has declined
both as a proportion of total revenue and capital budgets. Similarly the
public expenditure as a proportion of total GDP has also declined. The
falling share of sate government expenditures on agriculture and allied
activities seems to be a dominant factor in determining the currently
declining shares of public sectors in capital formation in these states. Partly
the declining marginal efficiency of capital has also been responsible. There
is, therefore, a need to step up public expenditure on agriculture and allied
sectors in these states. At the same time, the decline in marginal efficiency
of capital at the state level needs, in general, a reversal. It is, therefore,
necessary to encourage efficient use of capital in agriculture by policy
measures that help the farmers to adopt a better technology. It is in this
context that the rise in prices of fertilisers and user charges for electricity
65
and canal water should be seen as steps in the right direction. Reducing
price distortions through cost based pricing not only results in efficient use
of resources but also helps in achieving more equitable distribution of
resources such as water.
Further, as indicated by above analysis, technology has played a major role
in enhancing the productivity, income and private investment in agriculture.
Moreover, in the post-reform era the agriculture sector has to compete in
an Integrated world economy. To maintain a favourable terms of trade for
agriculture a renewed impetus on agricultural research and development is
necessary. This would require an increased public expenditure to encourage
innovative research in the areas of dry farming and diversification of
agriculture in rainfed areas to plantations, horticulture and dairy. This might
help in boosting employment and income through fetching better
international markets of Indian agricultural products (Mishra, 1997, Chand,
1995, Salethy, 1995).
Thus, the private sector has been growing despite the above factors,
namely, the decline in public sector capital formation and falling efficiency of
capital. However, this does not suggest that entire onus can be left to
private sector alone. Even with liberalisation in order to maintain self-
sustaining growth in farmers' income as suggested by our analysis, it is
necessary to manage favourable terms of trade for agriculture or provide
policy support to enhance productivity by means of physical infrastructure
and yield increasing technical knowhow and institutional credit for technology
upgradation. Institutional credit has played and continues to play a
significant role in private capital formation despite the financial reforms in
the recent years. It is pertinent that the financial reform measures should
not adversely affect the flow of term credit to agriculture. The rationalisation
and recognisation of the existing agricultural financing institutions should
thus aim at improving efficiency of the existing institutional structure which
could mobilise rural savings to meet increasing credit needs of the
agricultural and allied sectors in a competitive financial environment. In this
regard, it may be pointed out that in order to promote capital formation
institutional credit should be more targeted. In fact it was observed in a
recent study (Mani, et. al, 1996) that despite the substantial increase in
institutional credit in the recent years, the share of long term credit that is
vital for capital formation, has remained low at 15-20 percent. Besides, the
availability of investment per hectare is much lower than the prescribed
norms. Setting of enhanced targets in this regard would further augment
the capital formation in agriculture.
66
productive capacity of the resources for the society as a whole in an
equitable manner. As long as equity remains one of the main policy
objectives, the onus of majority of vulnerable population cannot be left to
market forces. The increased social welfare cannot be achieved by leaving
the responsibility entirely to private sector and therefore private investment
cannot be a substitute for public investment.
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69
Appendix Table 1 : Capital Formation in Indian Economy
Agriculture and Allied Sectors (Rs. Crores)
Contd....
70
Appendix Table 1 : Capital Formation in Indian Economy
Mining, Manufacturing and Construction Sector
(Rs. Crores)
Contd
71
Appendix Table 1 Capital Formation in Indian Economy
Services Sector ,„ ^
(Rs. Crores)
GFCF CHST GCF GCFPUB GCFPVT
Contd
72
Appendix Table 1 Capital Formation in Indian Economy
All Sectors ,„ ^
(Rs. Crores)
GFCF CHST GCF GCFPUB GCFPVT
Notes: GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation, CHSTK = Change in Stocl<, GCF = Gross Capital
Formation, GCFPUB = GCF in Public Sector, GCFPVT = GCF in Private Sector. Source: C.S.O.,
Various publications.
73
Appendix Table 2 : GDP by sectors (Absolute Values)
(Rs. Crores)
Agriculture Mining Service Total
Mfg. & Construction GDP
74
Appendix Table 3 : Capital Formation In Agriculture
(Three Yearly Moving Averages)
Gross fixed Change in Gross Capital Gross Capital Gross Capital
Capital Stocks Formation Formation Formation
Public Private
75
Appendix Table 4 : Revenue Expenditure on Agriculture and Allied
Activities in A.P., Rajasthan, Kerala and T.N.
Years 1Revenue Exp. on AAA Revenue Exp. as % to Total Govt.
Exp. on AAA
A.P. Kerala Raj. T.N. A.P. Kerala Raj. T.N.
76
Appendix Table 6 : Index Numbers for Various Measures of Terms of
Trade, Public and Private Investment and Rural Poverty
Year Barter Terms Gross Terms Index of
of Trade of Trade Income Cfiange
77
Annexure I : Methodology of Estimation of Gross Fixed Capital
Formation at State Level
i) Type of assets:
(a) Construction: The value at site in the accounting year of five basic
construction input materials, viz., cement, iron and steel products, timber
and round wood, bricks and tiles and permanent fixtures and fittings are
considered under construction.
The total of (1) and specified percentage of (ii) to (iv) on the basis of ASI,
data, are taken as capital formation.
78
ii) Industry of use:
The latest two census provide the number of rural and urban households
separately using the geometric growth rate. The number of households dur-
ing the year 1985-86 to 1988-89 have been estimated.
The per household gross fixed capital formation for the base year has
been arrived at by using the total gross fixed capital formation and the
number of households, as estimated from the survey results separately for
rural and urban sectors.
By making use of the per household gross fixed capital formation thus
obtained and the projected numbers of households from the census results,
gross fixed capital formation in farm business has been estimated both for
rural and urban sectors for the years from 1985-86 to 1988-89 at constant
prices.
The GFCF at current price has been obtained by using the index of aver-
age daily wages of unskilled labour in construction sector. The GFCF at
current price, thus obtained for rural and urban sectors have been finally
aggregated to obtain the GFCF from farm business.
79
b) Livestock: For the estimates of agriculture proper the value of
breeding stock, drought animals, dairy cattle etc. which form part of capital
formation has been added. As the annual data on livestock population are
not available, the different categories of livestock as given in the quinquen-
nial livestock census have been considered and the number of each cat-
egory estimated using geometric growth rates.
The data regarding bullocks and bulls over three years not in use, cows
over 3 years not in use, female goats of one year and above not in milk
etc., are excluded from the purview of capital formation. The cattle, male
over three years, cows in milk, buffaloes, male over three years, she buffa-
loes in milk, goats-female of one year and over in milk, males one year
and over (breeding) as provided in the census have been considered to
form part of capital formation of livestock component. The increment of
each category every year is estimated and then evaluated using the aver-
age price of the category each year. Only 4% of the male goats have
been considered to be the capital formation component of this category.
The government of Kerala have taken over the private forests, of the state
by an Act. Therefore, the capital expenditure on forest preservation, exten-
sion etc., of the state is the contribution of the public sector only. The
capital formation component of this sub-sector is obtained from the analysis
of the State Government Budget.
v) Fishing :
The livestock census of 1982 and 1987 provide information on the number
of different categories of mechanized and non-mechanized boats and other
major fishing boats and equipment like fishing gears and catamarans
engaged in fishing activity. The number of fishing boats and equipments
during the years 1985-86 to 1988-89 has been estimated using the geo-
metric growth rate of the inter census years and then the increment during
each year, is worked out. The average price of the different categories of
boats and equipments each year collected from the state department of
fisheries have been used to evaluate the increment of boats each year.
The gross fixed capital formation in Fisheries sector is obtained at
current prices.
80
2. METHODOLOGY OF ESTIMATION: RAJASTHAN^
The estimates of the GFCF by industry of use have been built up directly,
using data from diverse sources, the details are given in the following para-
graphs :
The estimates of gross fixed capital formation from agriculture including live-
stock have been prepared for public and private sectors separately. The
GFCF from Govt. Administration and Non-Departmental Commercial under-
takings have been included under public sector. The GFCF from household
sector and livestock part have been covered under private sector.
The results of AIDIS for 1981-82 for the Rural & Urban areas are available
in respect of the following items under fixed capital formation in farm
business :
1. Reclamation of Land.
81
4. Construction of new wells and major alterations like broadening and
deepening of existing wells.
The bench mark estimates for 1981-82, construction for reclamation of land,
construction of new bunds and major alterations and additions to existing
bunds and other land improvement have been altered for subsequent years
on the basis of data on net area sown in the state during respective
years. The bench mark estimates of construction of new wells and major
alterations, like broadening and deepening of existing wells, construction of
new irrigation resources and major alterations of existing irrigation resources
have been inflated for subsequent years (i.e., 1982-83 & onwards) on the
basis of data on net area irrigated by wells and tube wells, expenditure of
new plantations and addition to existing orchards and plantation have been
estimated for years 1982-83 and onwards with the help of data of area
under miscellaneous tree crops and groves and fruit plants. Such estimates
have been first arrived at constant prices. Similarly estimates in respect of
reclamation of land at current prices have been based on data on price
change reflected through wages paid to agricultural workers engaged in
med-bandl. Similarly, in case of construction of new wells etc., estimates at
current prices have been prepared by superimposing index numbers of cost
of construction on base data. In respect of new plantation and orchards
etc., the estimates on current prices are built by applying to base data the
wages of agricultural workers engaged in transplanation.
82
been adjusted on the basis of index numbers of whole sale prices for
machinery and transport equipment group. These estimates also take into
account, changes in value of incremental livestock (breeding stocks draught
animals, dairy cattle etc.) which form part of fixed capital formation. For
estimating this component, all live stock excepting bulls and bullocks over
three years not in work or nor for breeding purposes, cows over three
years not in milk, young stock of goats under one year, female goats of
one year and above not in milk, pigs and poultry have been considered.
hi) Fishing :
Estimates of gross fixed capital formation for fishing sector are based on
the yeanA/ise expenditure incurred by the State Govt, on buildings and other
construction, and machinery and equipments which have been culled out
from the State Govt, budgets.
For the private sector, estimates have been based on the stock of fishing
equipments, as available from quinquennial livestock census. Prices of fish-
ing equipments have been obtained for 1982-83 from surveys and Re-
search Office of Fisheries Department of the State. These bench mark es-
timates of total capital stock for the year 1982-83, have been moved back-
ward and forward on the.basis of proportion of GSDP for this sector. To
obtain the gross fixed capital formation during the years, from total capital
stock, the estimates of the previous years capital stock were deducted from
current years capital stock.
The estimates of fixed capital formation at constant prices have been ar-
rived at after deflating the estimates at current prices by index Numbers of
Building and Construction cost (base 1980-81). Similarly in case of Plant &
Machinery the group index of Plant Machinery of wholesale price index has
been used, as a deflator.
83
3. METHODOLOGY OF ESTIMATION: ANDHRA PRADESH'
ill) Local Bodies: The estimates of Gross Capital Formation have been
prepared from the aggregates available in the local body Annual
Accounts i.e., Zilla Parishads, Municipalities, Panchayat Samities for
the years 1980-81 to 81-82 and by adopting appropriate ratios for
later years.
84
1981-82. The data was made available for the following eight items
under fixed capital formation in farm business.
I. Reclamation of land
iv. Wells
Apart from the above information the data relating Bunding and other land
improvements etc., was also collected from Agriculture department and Ag-
riculture Census.
For other sectors, the data available in A.S.I., N.S.S. sample and enterprise
survey are made use of.
85
4. METHODOLOGY OF ESTIMATION: TAMIL NADU*
Agriculture and Allied Activities: For the preparation of the fixed capital
formation estimates the sector was divided into two parts public and private
sector. Data relating to public sector fixed capital formation were collected
from State Budget documents and annual accounts of three non depart-
mental enterprises. As regards the private sector, the following items were
covered.
i. Reclamation of land
iv. Wells
viil. Others
The data were available for eight items under fixed capital formation in
farm business. Estimates for other years were obtained by carrying forward
and backward the bench mark estimates for 1981-82 with the help of suit-
able price indicators.
Actual area reclaimed may be considered physical indicator for the item
"reclamation of land'. Expenditure on soil conservation may be used as a
physical indicator for the item "Bundings and other land improvement' Addi-
tional area under suit crops and plantations may be used as an indicator
86
for the item 'orchard and plantation'. The total number of wells may be
considered as an indicator for the item wells and area irrigated for the item
'other irrigation resources'. For preparing the estimates relevant indicator is
used. The estimates so arrived at by using physical indicators gave results
at constant prices. Index of wages of rural unskilled workers have been
used to arrive at current prices. For agricultural implements machinery
transport equipment, additional number of agricultural machinery implements
were taken into account and a suitable price index is used as indicator for
current prices.
Livestock sub Sector: The estimates for this sector were prepared on the
basis of geometric growth rate to the intervening period from the Livestock
Census 1977, 1982 and 1989. The prices of Livestock categories have
been collected for the required years.
Fishing: The public sector value is estimated from budget documents and
annual accounts of the non-departmental enterprises.
For private sector using Livestock Census 1977, 1992 and 1989 data have
been prepared for mechanized and non-mechanized boats and other major
fishing equipments. The data on gap years were filled up using Geometric
Growth Rate and worked out the annual addition to the respective items. A
suitable price index is used in order to arrive at current prices.
87
Annexure Table 1 - Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Non-
Departmental Commercial Undertakings in Kerala
(Category-wise) [percentages] Constant Prices
Category Land Build- Capital Other Expen- Trans- Machi-
Deve- ing work in const- diture port rj®ry &
lopment progress ruction during equip- office
constru- ments equip-
ction ments
1980-81
1. Agriculture 48.37 13.24 4.15 18.23 5,07 4.31 1.63
II. Forestry and Logging 45.63 13.62 35.02 0.66 0.00 3.78 1.30
Total 47.68 17.08 11.91 13.81 3.80 4,18 1.54
1981-82
1. Agriculture 49.95 26.69 3.47 5.02 0.00 7.22 7.65
II. Forestry and Logging 33.58 44.82 0.00 0.02 21.42 0.06 0.11
Total 42.94 34.45 1.98 2.88 9.17 4.16 4.42
1982-83
1. Agriculture 40.43 27.88 11.63 33.89 0.00 1.31 2.04
II. Forestry and Logging 42.99 55,99 0,00 0.28 0.00 0.50 0.24
Total 40.80 31.94 9.95 29.03 0.00 1.19 1.78
1983-84
1. Agriculture 36.16 16.96 3.01 16,70 16.78 4.06 6.32
II. Forestry and Logging 0.00 46.35 0.00 2.01 51.05 0.02 0.57
Total 30.44 21,61 2.54 14.38 22.20 3.42 5.41
1984-85
1. Agriculture 2.53 32,90 0.00 16.50 7.93 2.48 14.88
II. Forestry and Logging 0.00 26.89 0.00 65.13 0.00 3.96 4.02
Total 2.25 32.23 0.00 21,90 7.05 2.54 13.67
1985-86
1. Agriculture 50.35 21.11 0,00 28.71 0.00 4.57 2.41
II. Forestry and Logging 47.52 48.64 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.39 3.10
Total 50.01 24.36 0.00 25.36 0.00 4.08 2.49
1986-87
1. Agriculture 11.97 29.05 7.35 25.39 0.00 4.22 22.02
II. Forestry and Logging 29.19 2.68 66.87 3.2 0.00 0.00 2,90
Total 13.39 26.88 12.26 23,56 0.00 3.87 20.44
1987-88
1. Agriculture 7.37 18.46 4,33 33.46 0.00 7,33 30.96
II. Forestry and Logging 0.00 30.13 0.00 55,99 0.00 0.00 13.88
Total 6.47 19.89 3.80 36.22 0.00 6.43 28.87
1988-89
1. Agriculture 74.69 15.98 51.42 0.00 17.80 5.35 0.00
II. Forestry and Logging 0,00 0.00 19,48 0.00 0.00 0.00 80.52
Total 72.77 15.57 50.60 0,00 17.34 5.22 2.07
Source; Estimated.
88
Annexure Table 2 : Gross Fixed Capital Formation of Agriculture-
Household Sector (constant prices)
Years Rural Urban Total
Source : Estimated.
89
Annexure Table 4 : Estimates of Gross Fixed Capital Formation
(GFCF) of Public Sector in Rajasthan by type of Assets at constant
prices (percentages) (Agri. + Forestry + Fishing)
Source: Estimated, original information obtained from Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Government of
Rajasthan, Jaipur.
90
Annexure Tabie 6 : Gross Fixed Capitai Formation of state
government departmentai enterprises in Tamil Nadu by 'type of
industry of use' 1980-81 to 1988-89 (at constant prices) (Rs. in lakh)
Years Agriculture Forestry & Logging Total GFCF
91