karnataka

telangana

Rajasthan
Chattisgarh

Major Political Events of 2023 MP

Tripura
Meghalaya (BJP NPP
alliance)

1: New Parliament, new record for MP suspensions Mizoram

Nagaland

On May 28, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the new Parliament building, with an
expanded capacity of 888 seats (from 543) in the Lok Sabha chamber. The Rajya Sabha chamber was
also expanded to 384 seats from the previous 250 capacity. The construction cost an estimated Rs
1,200 crore, though the exact figure has not been released.
However, the inauguration was boycotted by 20 Opposition parties accounting for 242 MPs in both
Houses over the PM inaugurating the Parliament and “sidelining” President Droupadi Murmu, the
constitutional head of the State. But as far as Parliament working goes, it remained a tumultuous
year, beginning with the disruption-ridden Budget Session that saw the second lowest time spent
functioning for this government. The following two regular Sessions of Parliament also suffered in
terms of productivity, though the Monsoon and Winter Sessions saw among the most Bills passed
since 2019. But each Session was marred by disruptions and many crucial, and contentious, Bills
passed with little to no discussion.

2: Nine states went to polls

Nine states held Assembly elections this year, with the government changing hands in five. While
the BJP won in four states, the Congress won in two, with regional parties taking the remaining
three.
In the first Assembly polls of the year, in Tripura, the BJP just about managed a majority with 32
seats. The Opposition bloc won just 14 seats, with the CPI(M) winning 11 and the Congress winning
three. The TIPRA Motha, a tribal outfit that was contesting its first Assembly election, emerged as
the main Opposition party.
In Meghalaya, the National People’s Party (NPP) came to power in an alliance including the BJP
and United Democratic Party (UDP), which had a combined seat tally of 46 in the 60-member House.
The Congress was reduced to 5 seats, from 21 in 2018.
In Nagaland, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) won 25 seats, with North-East
Democratic Alliance partner BJP winning 12 in the 60-member House. The Congress though failed
to win a single seat.
Karnataka was the Congress’s best electoral outcome this year – it recorded a comfortable win with
135 seats, ousting the BJP from its only southern state. Its campaign was built around a series of
“guarantees”, which went on to become the model for the remaining state elections in 2023. The BJP
won 66 seats and the Janata Dal (Secular) won 19; the two parties would go on to form an alliance
later in the year for the Lok Sabha elections.
Five states went to polls at the end of the year in the last round of state elections before the Lok
Sabha polls. The results turned out to be a disappointment for the Congress, which was hoping to
consolidate its position in the states ahead of seat-sharing talks with the INDIA bloc. It lost power
in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh but managed to oust the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana.
For the BJP though, the year ended on a positive note with wins in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and
Chhattisgarh and surprises in its new CMs faces in each of these states. In Mizoram, newcomer
Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) ended 36 years of a Congress-Mizo National Front (MNF)
duopoly.
A key election-related development was the establishment of a panel headed by former President
Ram Nath Kovind to explore holding simultaneous national and state elections as part of the
Centre’s push for “one nation, one election”.
3: NDA vs INDIA: Their numbers and their conflicts
On July 18, 26 parties came together under the banner of the Indian National Developmental
Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, with the goal of creating a nationwide Opposition bloc against the BJP
for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But the INDIA bloc, led by the Congress, has suffered from several
instances of infighting and poor coordination.
With just months to go for the general elections and after the Congress’s defeats in the November-
December state polls, there has been little progress on seat-sharing negotiations, with regional
parties hoping the Congress will compromise. In many states, members of the bloc are in direct
contest, including in states like West Bengal and Kerala, further complicating seat-sharing talks.
In terms of legislative strength, the INDIA bloc has 142 MPs in the Lok Sabha, 98 MPs in the Rajya
Sabha, and 1,637 MLAs and 120 MLCs across states. This leaves it facing an uphill task against the
BJP-led NDA, which has 323 LS MPs, 109 Rajya Sabha MPs, and 1,834 MLAs and 177 MLCs.
Over the course of the year, the Opposition and the Centre clashed over several issues.
One such conflict was the India versus Bharat issue. Ahead of the G20 Summit in Delhi, the
government sent out invitations for a dinner hosted by the President of “Bharat” rather than
“India”, sparking speculation that the BJP may officially change the country’s name. Though Article
1 of the Constitution uses the two names interchangeably, the Opposition alleged the change was
the result of the formation of the INDIA bloc.
The two blocs also clashed after remarks from Udhayanidhi Stalin, son of Tamil Nadu CM M K
Stalin and a state minister in the DMK government, saying ‘Sanatan Dharma’ should be
“eradicated”. Union Home Minister Amit Shah lashed out at the INDIA bloc for “insulting this
country’s culture, history and Sanatan Dharma”. Udhayanidhi stood firm on his comments and
INDIA bloc partner CPI was among those to side with him. But the Congress and the TMC, for
instance, distanced themselves from the remarks.

4: Bihar Caste Survey saffron party - bjp

One issue that may play a role in the Lok Sabha elections is the caste census. While some members
of the Opposition have been calling for a nationwide caste census since the first half of the year, the
debate really kicked off in October, when the Bihar government released a caste survey, putting the
Backward Classes population at 63% of the total.
As Opposition parties chase the OBC vote, which has largely been cornered by the BJP, the saffron
party has remained lukewarm on the issue. The BJP government at the Centre is wary that a caste
census could give rise to contesting demands as well as arouse other dormant quota calls, shattering
its delicate caste balancing.
The Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile has been raising the ‘Jitni aabadi, utna haq (rights
according to numerical strength)’ slogan in an attempt to add OBC support to its minority vote
consolidation. But the calls for a caste census do not appear to have resonated among voters in the
recently concluded Assembly polls. Several other states have since announced plans to conduct their
own caste surveys.

5: Manipur violence: 1 Year

Since May 3, Manipur has been ravaged by ethnic violence between the Kukis, a tribal group who
are largely Christian, and the dominant Meiteis, who are mostly Hindu.
The conflict began over the Meiteis demand for tribal status, which the Kukis opposed over fears
that it would further increase their influence in government and society, and allow them to buy land
in Kuki-dominated regions and get a share of jobs reserved for Kukis.
Meiteis make up about half the state’s population and hold 40 of the 60 seats in the Assembly. CM
N Biren Singh is a Meitei. While the Meiteis are concentrated in the Imphal valley, the Kukis reside
in the less-developed surrounding hills.
As per the latest figures from the Manipur Police, the state has seen 175 deaths, 1,118 injuries and
32 cases of missing persons. At least 60,000 people have been left homeless. There were also 5,132
cases of arson, within which 4,786 houses had been burnt and 386 religious structures had been
vandalised. During the violence, over 4,000 arms were looted from state armouries, of which 1,329
were recovered, along with 15,050 ammunition and 400 bombs.
Though the violence has eased in recent months, life has remained disrupted in Manipur. Schools
and colleges have been unable to operate normally, transportation and communication networks
have been hit, hurting agricultural and other economic activity.

6: Four years on, Supreme Court upholds Article 370 abrogation

In a year of milestones, the Supreme Court delivered a melange of seminal verdicts in 2023 including
those that upheld the Centre’s decisions to scrap Article 370, which bestowed special status on
Jammu and Kashmir, and the demonetisation of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 currency notes.
Under Chief Justice of India D Y Chandrachud, the top court created a record by disposing of 52,191
cases between January 1 and December 15, 2023. It had disposed of nearly 40,000 cases the previous
year.
To round off the year, on December 11, the Supreme Court upheld the abrogation of Article 370,
more than four years after it was scrapped. But the apex court ordered the government to reinstate
J&K statehood and hold Assembly elections by September 2024. Since the abrogation of Article 370,
which split the state into two Union Territories, the region has been under President’s Rule and has
held only two local body elections.
The region has not had an Assembly since it was dissolved in 2018, with the last state polls taking
place in 2016.

7: Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam:

In September, President Droupadi Murmu gave her consent to the Women's Reservation Bill after
both Houses of Parliament cleared it during a special session. After getting the President's nod, the
central government issued a gazette notification for the legislation, officially known as 'Nari Shakti
Vandan Adhiniyam', which proposes 33% reservation for women in Lok Sabha and state
Assemblies

8: G20 Summit:
September marked a historic moment for India as it hosted the G20 Summit in its vibrant capital,
New Delhi. The 2023 G20 New Delhi summit was the eighteenth meeting of the G20 (Group of
Twenty), held at the Bharat Mandapam International Exhibition-Convention Centre, Pragati
Maidan, New Delhi, on September 9–10, 2023. It was the first G20 summit held in India. Under the
theme “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam," meaning “The world is one family," the summit brought
together leaders from the world’s 19 largest economies and the European Union to tackle pressing
global challenges. Here are five key takeaways from the two-day summit:
1. The African Union has been inducted as the new permanent member of the G20, pushing forward
a new world order and offering developing nations a greater say in global decision-making.
2. A comprehensive rail and shipping connectivity network was announced linking the US, India,
Saudi Arabia, Gulf and Arab states, and the European Union.
3. The Delhi Declaration was adopted by China and Russia in agreement with it. It called on nations
to uphold international law, including territorial integrity and sovereignty, international
humanitarian law, and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability. It is being offered
as an alternative to China's Belt and Road project, which has left a host of developing countries in
deep debt, such as Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos, and Mongolia.
4. PM Modi announced the launch of the Global Biofuel Alliance to boost the use of cleaner fuels. It
was affirmed that this alliance will accelerate global efforts to meet net-zero emission targets by
facilitating trade in biofuels derived from various sources, including plant and animal waste.
5. The trust deficit that has risen in recent years has to be overcome by greater cooperation between
member countries of G20.

9: Wrestlers Protest:
2023 kicked off on a rocky start as the country was hit by several Indian wrestlers levelling
allegations of sexual misconduct against BJP MP and Wrestling Federation of India chief Brij
Bhushan Sharan Singh. Led by Vinesh Phogat, Sakshi Malik, and Bajrang Punia, several wrestlers
staged a dharna at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi, demanding that WFI be disbanded, its president be
sacked, and a probe be conducted into the matter.

10: Arrest of Delhi Deputy CM:

Delhi’s Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia was arrested after around eight hours of
interrogation by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) regarding the alleged irregularities in the
now-scrapped Delhi excise policy. The chain of events culminating in Sisodia’s arrest by the CBI
began in July 2022, when Delhi Chief Secretary Naresh Kumar submitted a report to Lt Governor
Vinai Kumar Saxena, accusing Sisodia of providing undue benefits to liquor vend licensees in lieu
of “kickbacks” and “commissions”, which were allegedly used by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in
the Punjab Assembly elections in February that year.

11: Rahul Gandhi Disqualified

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been disqualified from the Lok Sabha, a day after he was
convicted in a defamation case by a Surat court. A notice issued by the Lok Sabha Secretariat said
he stood disqualified from the House from March 23, the day of his conviction. Rahul Gandhi has
to now move a higher court and get his conviction stayed.
On Thursday (March 23), Gandhi was held guilty and sentenced to two years in jail by a Surat court
in a 2019 defamation case, over his remarks about the “Modi” surname. The conviction triggered
the process of his disqualification as a lawmaker. What is the ruling and how does the
disqualification operate?
What did the Surat Court rule?
Chief Judicial Magistrate HH Verma convicted Gandhi in a 2019 defamation case, for saying ‘why
do all thieves have the name Modi’, and sentenced him to two years in prison. The remarks were
made during a rally in Kolar, Karnataka, in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. “Why do all
thieves, be it Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi or Narendra Modi, have Modi in their names,” Gandhi had
said in Hindi. Section 500 of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) prescribes for defamation a simple
imprisonment for a “term which may extend to two years, or with fine, or with both.” The court
also approved Gandhi’s bail on a surety of Rs 15,000 and suspended the sentence for 30 days to
allow him to appeal.
Disqualification of a lawmaker is prescribed in three situations. First is through the Articles 102(1)
and 191(1) for disqualification of a member of Parliament and a member of the Legislative Assembly
respectively. The grounds here include holding an office of profit, being of unsound mind or
insolvent or not having valid citizenship. The second prescription of disqualification is in the Tenth
Schedule of the Constitution, which provides for the disqualification of the members on grounds of
defection. The third prescription is under The Representation of The People Act (RPA), 1951. This
law provides for disqualification for conviction in criminal cases.
12: India Beats China in Population:
India officially surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world, estimating to
touch 142.86 crore by the middle of this year, marginally ahead of China at 142.57 crore. According
to projections by the United Nations, India’s population is expected to grow for the next three
decades after which it will begin declining.
In April, the country also saw the encounter of a gangster-turned-politician in Uttar Pradesh and
the arrest of a Khalistani separatist. While Atiq Ahmed and his brother Ashraf were shot dead in
the presence of police personnel and media persons on April 15 in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, a few
days later, radical Sikh self-styled preacher and Waris Punjab De chief Amritpal Singh was arrested
by the Punjab police from the Moga district after a month-long chase.

13: Chandrayaan-3
The phenomenal achievement of Chandrayaan-3’s Moon-landing is the culmination of a process set
in motion years ago, and puts India on the path to having a greater say in space exploration policy-
making. K Kasturirangan, during whose tenure as ISRO chairman the Moon missions were planned,
speaks to The Indian Express about the past and the future of India’s moonshot moment.
How do you see the Chandrayaan-3 landing on the moon?
It is a landmark event, no doubt. But if you look beyond the event, it gives us a very important
capability. It gives us physical access to another planetary body. The fact that we are only among a
handful of countries with this capability means we are at the forefront of this technology. And
therefore, we will be part of all decision-making related to future planetary explorations and even
extraction of resources from space. We are naturally part of the club that formulates these policies.
And this is significant, because in the past we have suffered by being kept out of such clubs. We
have been denied access to technology — in atomic energy, in space, and other critical areas. We
were kept out because we did not have our own capabilities and were, in some ways, dependent.
Of course, that has changed over the years and is rapidly changing as India transitions from a
developing country to a developed one.
Chandrayaan-3 demonstrates a full-fledged planetary exploration strategy. What this means is that
ISRO has demonstrated its ability to take the satellite right to the vicinity of a planet, or the Moon,
allow it to go around the Moon and make sure that we understand its environment and surface by
photography or other means, and then lastly the ability to land on the Moon. So, for the first time,
we have a direct physical access to the Moon, which has its own set of very important implications
with respect to the future of exploration and exploitation of resources. It becomes a total story in
terms of planetary exploration strategy.

14: Same-Sex Marriage Verdict

Supreme Court Same-Sex Marriage Verdict (October 17): The Supreme Court, in a unanimous
verdict, rejected petitions seeking same-sex marriage in India, and refused to tweak provisions of
the Special Marriage Act. The matter was decided by a five-judge Constitution Bench, headed by
CJI D Y Chandrachud. All five judges agreed that there was no fundamental right for non-
heterosexual couples to marry, with the majority view being that the legislature must decide on the
issue of same-sex marriage. CJI Chandrachud and Justice Sanjay Krishan Kaul said the right of
same-sex couples to enter civil unions flows from Part 3 of the Constitution; however, Justices S
Ravindra Bhat, Hima Kohli and P S Narasimha differed.Delivering his judgment on marriage
equality, CJI Chandrachud said that the apex court could not strike down provisions of the Special
Marriage Act or read things differently. He added that in his opinion, the Parliament should decide
on the issue. He also issued a slew of directions and guidelines to the Centre and police forces, in
order to prevent discrimination against the queer community. Following the CJI’s judgment, Justice
Sanjay Kishan Kaul also batted for civil unions for non-heterosexual couples.
On May 11, the Bench had reserved its verdict on the pleas after a marathon hearing of 10 days.
Arguments in the matter began on April 18, with the apex court later making it clear that it will not
go into personal laws governing marriages while deciding the pleas seeking judicial validation for
same sex marriages and said the very notion of a man and a woman, as referred to in the Special
Marriage Act, is not “an absolute based on genitals”. Some petitioners urged the Supreme court to
use its power to push the society to acknowledge such a union, a move that will allow the
LGBTQIA+ to lead a dignified life.

15: Indian team stumbled in the final

Despite being the best team during the course of this year’s ODI World Cup, India lost the final to
Australia, which abruptly ended the GOAT (greatest of all time) talk around the team during its
unbeaten run through the tournament.
1.4 billion people across the country suffered a heartbreak this month as India fell short of winning
the ODI World Cup after a terrific campaign. For 40 nights since their first win against Australia in
Chennai, India strode like the invincibles, but would stumble on the 41st night to a tame defeat.
Indeed, despite the defeat, this Indian team will go down in history as one of the greatest ever in
ODIs. However, it was also a flawed team from the beginning. These flaws were papered over
during India’s dominant run, but ultimately cost it dearly in the most important game of the
tournament.

nov
16: Uttarakhand Tunnel Rescue 2023
The highlight this month, however, was the mammoth rescue operation to drill out 41 workers who
were trapped following a tunnel collapse in Uttarakhand. A collective sigh of relief coursed across
a nation after rescuers reached the 41 workers trapped, capping an operation that lasted over 400
hours. It was a test of resolve, grit and perseverance — for those on both sides of the 57 metres of
debris — as the rescue operation suffered one setback after another. In the final lap over the
weekend, the drilling machine gave way, and, in the end, it was 14 “rat-hole miners” who dug
through the last 12 metres and reached the trapped men.
Capping an operation that lasted over 400 hours, rescuers managed to reach 41 workers trapped in
the Uttarkashi tunnel since November 12. It was a test of grit and perseverance – for men on both
sides of the 57 metres of debris – as the rescue operation suffered one setback after another. In the
end, with the drilling machine giving way, it was 12 “rat-hole miners” who dug through the last 12
metres and reached the trapped men.Around 8 pm, the first worker was taken out and ferried to a
medical centre in an ambulance. Officials said it would take 3-5 minutes for each worker to be pulled
out on stretchers fitted with wheels.
The final leg of the rescue operation, which involves taking the men out one by one, was handled
by personnel of the National Disaster Relief Force, with their state counterparts providing support.
Before the men were taken out, a temporary medical facility was established inside the tunnel in
case anyone required immediate attention. The men have been in warmer conditions as compared
to the outside, and blankets were arranged so they can acclimatise.

17: INDIA VS BHARAT CONTROVERSY

The renaming of India to 'Bharat' started when invites for G20, sent out in the name of the 'President
of Bharat' instead of the usual 'President of India', trigerring a buzz that India was being renamed.
The Opposition protested the alleged renaming calling it an "assault", while the ruling Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) hailed the change. The controversy had just started brewing when a government
booklet on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Indonesia for the 20th ASEAN-India Summit
referred to him as ‘Prime Minister of Bharat’. However, Union Minister Anurag Thakur dismissed
all the talks, saying they were just "rumours".
18: MAHUA MOITRA CASH-FOR-QUERY
Mahua Moitra was being investigated over the allegations that the Trinamool Congress (TMC) MP
took bribes to pose questions against businessman Gautam Adani at the Lok Sabha. An ethics
committee sat to probe the allegations. On December 8, Mahua Moitra was expelled as a Lok Sabha
member after the committee's recommendations for her "unethical conduct". Mahua Moitra has
approached the Supreme Court against her expulsion as the Lok Sabha member.

19: RAGHAV CHADHA 'FORGING' SIGNATURES OF MPs

Raghav Chadha faced suspension from the Upper House on August 11 for "breach of privilege"
over the allegations that he "forged" signatures of five Rajya Sabha MPs on a motion linked to the
Delhi Services Bill. Raghav Chadha was accused of not obtaining the consent of five MPs but
including them in the select committee. He allegedly forged their signatures too. His suspension
was revoked after he was held guilty.

20: BJP MP ABUSING ANOTHER MP IN LOK SABHA

During the Chandrayaan-3 success discussion in Lok Sabha, BJP MP Ramesh Bidhuri verbally
abused Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MP Danish Ali and made certain objectionable remarks targeted
at him. The remarks erupted uproar as the Opposition demanded Ramesh Bidhuri's expulsion. It
didn't happen but the BJP MP was warned of "strict action" if such behaviour is repeated in the
future. The remarks have been expunged from Parliamentary records.

21: BBC DOCUMENTARY ON MODI

In January, India banned a BBC documentary critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alleged
role in deadly riots more than 20 years ago from being shown in the country, in a move critics
decried as an assault on press freedom.
A senior adviser for the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting said directions to block the
documentary were issued using “emergency powers” available to the government under India’s
information and technology rules.
“Videos sharing @BBCWorld hostile propaganda and anti-India garbage, disguised as
‘documentary’, on @YouTube and tweets sharing links to the BBC documentary have been blocked
under India’s sovereign laws and rules,” senior adviser Kanchan Gupta wrote on X, adding both
YouTube and Twitter have complied with the order.
The documentary questions Modi’s leadership as chief minister during riots in Gujarat in 2002,
when about 1,000 people were killed, most of them Muslims. Human rights activists put the toll at
about 2,500.

22: Decoding the OCCRP’s Adani report

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has asked the Organized Crime and Corruption
Reporting Project (OCCRP) to give it access to “key documents” about the allegations of stock
manipulation and accounting fraud against the Adani Group, according to the Economic Times.
The network of investigative reporters has, however, refused the Indian market regulator’s request,
saying that the sources of information are accessible through official channels. OCCRP cited these
documents in a report published in August this year that the Indian conglomerate routed funds to
two foreign individuals to invest in its own shares using Mauritius-based platforms. The report
provides more details of manipulation alleged by the US short-seller Hindenburg Research in
January this year, which SEBI is probing.
According to ET, OCCRP told SEBI that its long-standing policy is not to provide any documents
beyond what is published. The Indian regulator was told that lawyer Prashant Bhushan, who is
representing one of the petitioners in the Adani-Hindenburg case before the Supreme Court, has
access to some of the documents. The market regulator has told the top court that shareholders
linked to certain foreign portfolio investors in Adani companies are located in tax havens and
“establishing their economic interest remains a challenge”. Recently, the Financial Times also
published a report which alleged that Adani overpriced coal imports, which saw it rake in high
profits but at the cost of overcharging customers.` The Adani Group has denied the allegations made
against it by Hindenburg, OCCRP and Financial Times.

23: Why is the land sinking in Joshimath?

Spread over an area of 2,458 square kilometres, Joshimath is one of the six tehsils (blocks) in
Uttarakhand's Chamoli district. It was all quiet and business as usual in the city until the last few
months of 2022 when forces of nature began to push back and residents began to protest. Their
homes -- and other manmade structures in the city -- started developing cracks. Sitting atop ancient
glacial debris, the region had been a disaster waiting to happen, say geology experts. Joshimath is
hit by a geological phenomenon known as land subsidence, which is a gradual settling, or sinking
of the surface due to the removal of water, oil, natural gas, or mineral resources from the ground.
According to the US-based National Ocean Services, subsidence is also triggered by natural events
such as earthquakes, soil compaction, erosion, sinkhole formation, and an infusion of water to fine
soils.
The town sits on the intersection of the Main Central Thrust 1, 2, and 3, the intra-crustal faultlines,
where the Indian Plate has pushed under the Eurasian Plate along the Himalayas. The reactivation
of these faultlines nearly 50-60 kilometres under the surface remains a big mystery. Joshimath is a
classic case of all these factors working together to create a recipe for disaster, as the government
rolls up its sleeves to relocate people from the area. The Prime Minister’s Office said the safety of
the people is the priority and has asked the state government to establish clear and continuous
communication with the residents. Joshimath was always vulnerable to earthquakes as the region
falls in the seismic zone V. What really made things worse is the weak foundation of the city. Sitting
atop a glacial moraine, which are distinct ridges or mounds of debris that are laid down by a glacier,
the town's foundation has no solid rocks.
Every structure needs a strong foundation, but Joshimath, which houses over 20,000 people, apart
from the heavy tourist influx, has none. The debris has angular sediments, which are worse than
river-deposited sediments. These sediments have voids, making them extremely unstable,
geologically. This unstable foundation, when burdened with heavy construction in the region,
began caving by centimetres in the beginning. In the last several decades a boom in construction
has made this region extremely vulnerable and susceptible to major land deformation. Experts
blame the rapid rise in construction activities in the area to the widening of the Char Dham Yatra
road and the National Highway 7, which runs through the town taking tourists and cargo to the
holy shrine of Badrinath every year. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kedarnath and
Badrinath in October last year, he joined a record number of 41 lakh pilgrims that thronged the
shrine that year. The widening of the road was not just a big contributor, but also led to more and
more hotels springing up in and around Joshimath. Dr. Bahadur Singh Kotila of Kumaon University
said that the roads in the geologically sensitive region should have been seven metres wide, but the
government widened the roads to 12 metres, which led to more and more cleaning of the hills. This
made the already ecologically sensitive region highly vulnerable to landslides as the top layer was
cleaned for the road construction.
Locals also blame NTPC Limited’s 4×130 megawatt Tapovan Vishnugad hydel project for the
situation -- a 12-kilometre tunnel has been carved into the hill. NTPC has denied allegations, saying
that the tunnel does not pass under Joshimath town.
The land subsidence was also triggered by an incessant spell of rain in the region in the last few
years, which deposited more water on the surface. However, due to the unavailability of solid rocks
underneath, the water seeped into the soil and loosened it from within. With the top surface of the
soil already gone due to intense construction, the region has remained on the edge. That is not all.
In the last decade, the ridge that houses Joshimath has been traversed by running streams with a
high gradient from Vishnuprayag, a confluence of the Dhauliganga and the Alaknanda rivers. The
confluence has survived two big glacial and cloud outbursts that deposited heavy sediments
causing major erosion in the region. "The outbursts brought debris worth 10,000 houses in one day,
which made things worse for Joshimath," Dr. Kotlia adds. The geological developments underway
in Joshimath should be a case study for every town planner working in the hills. The factors at play
in Joshimath are also found in other cities such as Nainital, Champawat, and Uttarkashi. All these
cities are witnessing rampant construction, deforestation, population boom, and poor civic
management. The only silver lining is that they are not on top of ancient glacial debris.
Nature has its own way of claiming its resources. Government, civil bodies, and citizens need to
factor in these parameters when developing new cities.

24: Sikh separatist leader Amritpal Singh arrested

Amritpal Singh, the fugitive 'Waris Punjab De' chief, was arrested from Moga's Rhode village in
Punjab on April 23. Following his arrest, the 29-year-old was flown to Assam on a special flight to
be lodged at the Dibrugarh Central Jail. Amritpal had been on the run since March 18, when the
Punjab Police began a crackdown against his organisation, Waris Punjab De. The crackdown started
days after he and his supporters stormed a police station in Amritsar on February 23, following the
arrest of one of the preacher’s aides for alleged assault and attempted kidnapping.

25: Delhi Ordinance Bill passed

The Rajya Sabha passed the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Bill
in New Delhi on August 7, four days after the Lok Sabha cleared the Bill. According to the Centre,
the Bill is for the “maintenance of democratic and administrative balance in the governance” of the
National Capital Territory of Delhi.
The Bill was passed with 131 members voting in favour of it and 102 voting against it. Apart from
the NDA constituents, the Bill got the support of the members from Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and
Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP).

26: Atiq Ahmed shot dead

Criminal-turned-politician Atiq Ahmed and his brother Khalid Azim were shot dead by three
assailants in Prayagraj on April 15, while being escorted by about a dozen police personnel for a
routine medical checkup. The former Samajwadi Party (SP) MP was killed hours after the last rites
of his son Asad Ahmed, who was gunned down in a police encounter in Jhansi two days ago.
Ahmed and his brother, a former MLA, had been taken into police custody on April 13 in connection
with the February 24 murder of Umesh Pal, the key witness in the 2005 murder of Bahujan Samaj
Party MLA Raju Pal.

27: Chandrababu Naidu arrested in corruption case

N Chandrababu Naidu, former chief minister of Andhra Pradesh and Telugu Desam Party
president, was arrested by the Crime Investigation Department (CID) early on September 9 in
connection with corruption in the skill development scam case.
28: New data law
The Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023 lays down the obligations of entities handling and
processing data as well as the rights of individuals. It proposes a maximum penalty of Rs 250 crore
and a minimum of Rs 50 crore on entities violating the norms. The government has proposed to set
up a data protection board (DPB) that can impose penalties, summon data fiduciaries, inspect the
books and accounts or statements and even suggest to the government to block internet
intermediaries.

29: GST on gaming:

In July, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council Tuesday decided to impose the top 28% slab on
online real money gaming. Moreover, the levy was now applicable on the full-face value of bets
placed on real money gaming instead of just the commission that companies made.
In addition to an increase in tax compliance, the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI)
sent out a dozen pre-show cause notices to online real money gaming companies such as Dream11,
Play Games24x7, Head Digital Works over GST dues of about Rs 55,000 crore

30: RBI crackdown on AIFs

The RBI has prohibited investments in alternate investment funds (AIFs) by mainstream banks and
non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), with a requirement for divestment if lending
institutions have invested in AIF units that also lent to a company borrowing from the same
institution.
ET reported on December 22 that the Indian Venture and Alternate Capital Association, or IVCA,
is discussing with central government officials to help ease these wide-ranging curbs as they can,
potentially choke institutional fund flows to a high-risk and hitherto lightly regulated investment
vehicle experts believe could be misused to evergreen doubtful corporate loans.

31: Electoral Battles

2024 will see electoral battles of epochal proportions around the globe. The stage is set for the Indian
General Election in 2024 in April-May followed by Assembly Elections in seven states: Andhra
Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Maharashtra, and
Jharkhand.
The 2024 Indian general election will see the Narendra Modi-led NDA – which is seeking a third-
consecutive term – against the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance that consists of 27
parties including Indian National Congress, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, All India Trinamool
Congress, Janata Dal (United), Shiv Sena (UBT), Nationalist Congress Party, Communist Party of
India (Marxist), Samajwadi Party, Indian Union Muslim League, Communist Party of India, Aam
Aadmi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal.

In the neighbourhood, Pakistan will also see a general election on February 8 with the main
contestants being Gohar Ali Khan’s PTI (with former Pak PM Imran Khan in jail), Nawaz Sharif’s
PML (N), and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s PPP. Meanwhile, former Pak PM Imran Khan, who is
currently in jail and deemed ineligible to contest, has announced that he will fight elections from
prison.
While we are on arrested former premiers, the United States of America is also set for a showdown
between Republicans and Democrats in the 2024 US Presidential Election. The Democrats are likely
to be led by President Joe Biden (with Kamala Harris as his running mate), Donald Trump seems
likely to be the Republican nominee unless there are any legal hurdles.
Incidentally, if Trump does manage to win, he will become the second President of Grover
Cleveland to achieve the feat of being POTUS in two non-consecutive terms.
Elections are also set to be held in Russia where pollsters aren’t particularly doubtful about the
outcome and Vladimir Putin is expected to continue to be the head of state, a position he has held
(as Prime Minister and President in varying terms) since 1999.

32: More conflict, More Impunity

2023 has been one of the most conflictive years in the world since the end of World War II. In just
twelve months, political violence has increased by 27%. It grew in intensity and frequency. The war
in Gaza brought 2023 to a close, with over 17,000 dead accounted for so far, warnings from the
United Nations of the risk of humanitarian collapse and genocide of the Palestinian population
trapped in the Strip, and the standoff between the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and
the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to try to secure a ceasefire. In this ongoing crisis of the
liberal order and amid discussion over the validity of international law, Israel has dealt a severe
blow to the credibility of the United Nations. The Security Council has become an instrument of
paralysis; a pincer in the service of the interests of old powers that have led Guterres to publicly
acknowledge his frustration and sense of impotence. A politically weakened United Nations clings
to its humanitarian action on the ground to try to make the difference between life and death. At
least 130 UN humanitarian workers have lost their lives in Gaza since October 7th, the highest
number of UN fatalities in a conflict in its history.
2023 has been a violent year. It is estimated that 1 in 6 people in the world have been exposed to
conflict in the last twelve months. The sense of impunity and disregard for international law has
escalated. Not only in Gaza. The entrenchment of the war in Ukraine; the expulsion of the ethnic
Armenian population from Nagorno Karabakh; or the succession of coups in six African countries
in the last 36 months are a clear illustration of this moment of “deregulation of the use of force”,
which has been crystallising over years of erosion of international norms. And if in late 2023 we saw
the departure of the international troops from the G5 Sahel deployed to Burkina Faso and Niger, as
had already occurred the previous year with the expulsion of the French forces from Mali, in 2024
it will be the United Nations mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) that will have to leave the country before
February 29th. Human Rights Watch has called the withdrawal a “catastrophic abdication” because
it increases the risk of large-scale atrocities and abuses in a scenario of civil war, ethnic cleansing
and famine that has forced more than 7 million people to flee their homes, making Sudan the
country with the highest number of internally displaced persons in the world.
And yet the international struggle to curtail impunity will be equipped with new tools in 2024. As
of January 1st, the Ljubljana - The Hague Convention on International Cooperation in the
Investigation and Prosecution of the Crime of Genocide, Crimes against Humanity, War Crimes and
other International Crimes could be signed (and ratified) by the United Nations member states that
wish to join. It is the primary treaty for fighting impunity for international crimes and facilitates
cooperation among states in the judicial investigation of these crimes, it ensures reparation for
victims and streamlines extradition. At the same time, the UN is also drafting a Convention on
crimes against humanity with the aim of creating a treaty that is binding in international law,
especially in a climate marked by an increase in these crimes in countries like Myanmar, Ukraine,
Sudan or Ethiopia. The United Nations General Assembly will assess the progress of the
negotiations in autumn 2024. It will all coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide.
In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Russian
president, Vladimir Putin, for war crimes in Ukraine, to no effect so far. But should Putin decide to
attend the next G20 summit in Brazil in November 2024, it would present a challenge to the host
country since, unlike last year’s host India, Brazil is a party to the Rome Statute of 1998, the
international treaty that led to the creation of the ICC. While President Lula da Silva initially said
Putin would not be arrested if he attends the summit, he later rowed back, stating that the decision
would fall to the Brazilian justice system and not the government.
Despite the pessimism these treaties might produce, in recent months we have seen how, following
the Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia signed the ICC’s Rome Statute in
November, acquiring member status as of February 2024. In addition, in late 2023 South Africa,
Bangladesh, Bolivia, the Comoros and Djibouti called for an International Criminal Court
investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Palestine. In November
2023, the French judicial authorities issued an international arrest warrant for the Syrian president,
Bashar al-Assad – rehabilitated back into the Arab League the same year, more than a decade after
being thrown out – and for several of his generals over the use of chemical weapons against their
own people in 2013.

33: Sporting Extravaganzas

2024 will also see the return of the that should be more of an extravaganza compared to the Tokyo
Summer Olympics which was held under the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic.
For football fans, the main event with the Euro 2024 in Germany that will see Italy try to defend
their trophy. Cricket fans will also be waiting for the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup that will see 20
teams participate for the first time.

34: Space Explorations

Finally, 2024 will also see a restart of the space race as NASA’s Artemis program seeks to return
humans to the Moon.
Meanwhile, India’s ISRO will also see several missions including Ganganyaan-1 which will be the
country’s first manned spaceflight program, Mangalyaan-2 that seeks to study Mars, and
Shukrayaan-1 which seeks to find out about Venus.

35: Artificial intelligence: explosion and regulation

2023 was the year that generative AI burst into our lives; the year that ChatGPT was presented to
society, which in January, just two months after its launch, already had 100 million users. In August,
it hit 180 million. Yet the revolution also brought a new awareness of the risks, acceleration and
transformation involved in a technology that aspires to match, or even improve or surpass human
intelligence. That is why 2024 will be a crucial year for AI regulation. The foundations have already
been laid. It only remains to review the different initiatives under way. The most ambitious is that
of the European Union, which is resolved to become the first region in the world to equip itself with
a comprehensive law to regulate artificial intelligence and lead the coming leap forward. The EU
has opted to categorise the risks (unacceptable, high, limited or minimal) posed by the use of AI
systems and will require a “fundamental rights impact assessment” be carried out before a “high-
risk” AI system can be put on the market. The agreement reached in December will be ratified in
the first quarter of 2024 and give way to a period of two years before its full implementation in 2026.
Almost at the eleventh hour too, on December 1st of 2023 the G7 agreed international guidelines for
artificial intelligence developers and users, particularly for generative AI, mentioning the need to
introduce measures to deal with disinformation. G7 leaders see it as one of the chief risks because
of possible manipulation of public opinion on the eve of a year of global election overdrive.
But the debate on governance goes hand in hand with a geopolitical race to lead technological
innovation and, unlike the EU, in the case of the United States and China that also means
development of its military application. Both countries are looking to bolster their leadership. The
first international AI safety summit, called by the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, became a
meeting point of major global powers – both public and private; techno-authoritarian or open –
trying to regulate or influence the debates on regulation under way. A second in-person summit
will take place in Seoul and a third one in Paris, both in 2024 . For now, the “Bletchley Declaration”
is on the table, a document signed by 28 countries that gathers the pledge to tackle the main risks of
artificial intelligence, an agreement to examine tech companies’ AI models before they are launched
and a deal to assemble a global panel of experts on artificial intelligence inspired by the United
Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) . In addition, at the US
Embassy in London, 31 countries signed a parallel (non-binding) agreement to place limits on the
military use of AI. China, for its part, continues to move towards its goal of reaching 70% self-
sufficiency in critical technologies by 2025, while clearly increasing its presence in the main tech-
related international standardisation bodies.
To add to this flurry of regulatory activity, a Global Digital Compact will be agreed at the Summit
of the Future in September 2024, organised by the United Nations. This agreement will create a
framework of multi-actor and multisectoral cooperation among governments, private enterprise
and civil society, which should lay down a set of common rules to guide digital development in the
future. The application of human rights online, the regulation of AI and digital inclusion will be
some of the main topics under discussion.
This need to regulate artificial intelligence will also be heightened in the coming months by a
growing democratisation of AI tools, which will bring greater integration into different professional
sectors. The focus on a responsible AI will be stepped up locally (more cities deploying AI strategies
or regulatory frameworks), nationally and transnationally. As AI takes on a more important role in
decision-making throughout society safety, trustworthiness, equity and responsibility are crucial.
The latest annual McKinsey report on the use of generative AI tools says that a third of companies
surveyed had begun to use these types of programs. The tech and communications sector (40%), as
well as financial services (38%) and the legal profession (36%), are the frontrunners in their use and
application. Yet the same survey also states that precisely the industries relying most heavily on the
knowledge of their employees are those that will see a more disruptive impact of these technologies.
Whether that impact is positive or negative is still unclear. Unlike other revolutions that had an
effect on the labour market, it is white-collar workers who are likely to feel most vulnerable in the
face of generative AI. A European Central Bank study, meanwhile, says that AI has not supplanted
workers, but it has lowered their wages slightly, especially in jobs considered low and medium-
skilled, which are more exposed to automatisation, and particularly among women.
In the midst of this regulatory acceleration of the digital revolution, 2024 will also be the year when
the European Union deploys, to it full potential, the new legislation on digital services and markets
to place limits and obligations on the monopolistic power of the major platforms and their
responsibility in the algorithmic spread of disinformation and harmful content. As of January 1st, it
will be compulsory for Big Tech to abide by these regulations, with potential fines for breaches of
as much as 6% of global turnover, according to the DSA (Digital Services Act) and between 10% and
20% of global turnover, according to the DMA (Digital Markets Act). The flow of international data
will also increase in 2024, particularly transfers between the EU and the United States, by virtue of
the new Data Privacy Framework approved in July 2023. We will also see fresh scrutiny from NGOs
and digital rights groups to ascertain the legality of these transfers and whether they respect
individual privacy.

36: South(s) and North(s)

In our outlook for 2023 we announced the consolidation of the Global South as a space of
confrontation and leadership and pointed to the strategic presence of India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia
or Brazil. In 2024, this reconfiguration will go a step further. The contradictions and fragmentations
of this dichotomous North-South approach will become more apparent than ever. The Global South
has established itself as a key actor in the pushback against the West on anti-imperialist grounds or
over double standards. The most symbolic image of this moment of geopolitical expansion will
come in October 2024, when the BRICS bloc meets in Russia to formalise its expansion. Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa are welcoming Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab
Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran into the fold. Together they account for 46% of the world’s population,
29% of global GDP and include two of the three biggest oil producers in the world. Thus, the BRICS
will have an even more powerful voice, although, inevitably, it may also mean more internal
contradictions and conflicting agendas. The election of Javier Milei as the president of Argentina,
who has confirmed his decision not to join the BRICS, also feeds into the idea of this clash of agendas
and interests in the Global South. Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for strategic influence in the Persian
Gulf. India and China have their own border disputes in the Himalayas. The Global South will
continue to gain clout, but it will also be more heterogeneous. Other than a shared postcolonial
rhetoric, its action is extremely diverse.
The Global South is multiregional and multidimensional and comprises different political regimes.
But it is also a geographical space where global trade flows are consolidating as a result of
reglobalisation. The latest WTO annual report confirms that, while advanced economies are still key
players in world trade, they are no longer dominant. However, , if in 2023 we spoke of the
geopolitical acceleration of the “others”, with India as the symbol of this potential leadership of the
Global South, in 2024 it will be Latin America that tries to take a central role. Brazil will host the
G20, while Peru will be the venue for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
And as we move beyond dichotomies, a deep internal crack may also appear in the Global North
should the return of Donald Trump to the White House materialise. Transatlantic distance
dominates a new framework of relations that is more transactional than a conventional alliance.
Washington and Brussels’ differences will worsen in 2024 when the United States asks the European
Union to increase its contributions to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and internal divisions
among the member states prevent it. The second half of 2024 will be particularly tense, when
Hungary – the most reluctant EU country when it comes to military aid and Ukraine’s possible
accession – takes over the EU’s rotating presidency. It will also be paradoxical if this rift in the Global
North widens because of the Ukraine war. Precisely, in 2023, the Ukrainian conflict was the mortar
that cemented transatlantic unity, and confronted the EU and the United States with the limits of
their ability to influence in the face of a Global South that questioned the double standards of the
West. In 2024, however, the war in Ukraine may increase the distance between Washington and
Brussels.
Despite this logic of confrontation, the geopolitical short-sightedness of binarism is increasingly
misplaced. And yet, it is difficult to overcome. The fact that both the United States and the European
Union conceive their relations with Latin America solely as a space for resource exploitation and
geopolitical dispute with China, is part of that short-sightedness. For the moment, the repeated
failure of the negotiations over an EU-Mercosur agreement are dashing South America’s hopes of
being able to boost its trade presence in the European single market. Talks will resume in the first
half of 2024, after Paraguay takes over the Mercosur presidency from Brazil.

37: The 50th G7 summit: Meloni’s stage at a format in transition

The 50th G7 Summit will take place from June 12 to 15 in Apulia, Italy. Italy’s Prime Minister
Georgia Meloni of the right-wing Brothers of Italy will do her utmost to cultivate her constructive
image at international level and has announced that she will put the issue of migration high on the
agenda. In the meantime, the format of the G7 as such is facing challenges and is changing.
Initially, G7 focused exclusively on economic issues. The range of topics today also covers education
and health policy, foreign policy and the fight against terrorism, and environmental and climate
protection, to name just the most important.
Due to their economic and political importance, G7 decisions have an impact on other countries.
However, the economic power of the G7 is shrinking.
Throughout the 1980s, these countries accounted for 50% of global GDP (expressed in US dollar
purchasing power parity). Currently, it is only 30 %. The G7, therefore, faces the challenge of
retaining its political influence despite its declining economic power.

38: Pakistani General Election – February 8

The Pakistani general election has been postponed to 8 February 2024, after being due to take place
by 8 November 2023.
This controversial delay essentially violated the constitution and is a cause of concern in the country.
Imran Khan was dismissed in a vote of no confidence back in April 2023, led in a united opposition
by Shehbaz Sharif, who went on to succeed him as Prime Minister. Khan tried to stop the vote going
ahead, and even threatened to impose martial law to avoid handing over power, and since has been
rallying his loyal supporters, pledging to fight in the next election against what he claims is a
“foreign conspiracy” against him.

39: 2 Years since Russia Invaded Ukraine – February 24

Two years ago today, Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, a crisis that has resulted in tens of
thousands of deaths on both sides and had global effects on food shortages and economic stability.
Since the invasion began, over 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes in what
has been the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II. It also prompted the biggest
emigration of Russian nationals since the 1917 October Revolution.

40: Russian Presidential Election – March 17

Russia will hold the first round of its 2024 presidential election on 17 March. If no candidate receives
more than half the vote during this round, a second round will take place three weeks later, on 7
April 2024. The new Russian President is scheduled to be inaugurated on 7 May 2024.
This marks the first election since the 2020 constitutional reform, which removed the term limit for
serving presidents. This amendment means that incumbent president, Vladimir Putin, is eligible for
re-election in 2024.

41: Important Dates and Events In 2024:

 January 1 – Changeover in the United Nations Security Council. Algeria, Guyana, the Republic
of South Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia start their terms as non-permanent members of the
UN Security Council, replacing Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates,
whose terms end.
 January 1 – Dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-
Karabakh will cease to exist at the start of the year, after more than three decades of control over
the territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to reintegrate this
predominantly ethnic Armenian-populated enclave. The assault led the self-declared republic
to announce its dissolution.
 January 1 – BRICS expansion. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
will join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as full members of BRICS. Argentina’s
new president, Javier Milei, has finally ruled out his country's incorporation.
 January 1 – Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union. Belgium takes over the
rotating presidency of the Council from Spain, marking the end of this institutional cycle. The
Belgian semester will hold until June 30.
 January 7 – Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. The vote will take place against a backdrop
of deep political division in the country. This division led to mass demonstrations by the
opposition at the end of 2023, calling for an interim government to oversee the elections. The
 current prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is looking to for another term after 15 years in
power, while her main rival and leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Khaleda Zia, is
currently under house arrest on charges of corruption.
 January 13 – General elections in Taiwan. For the first time since Taiwan became a democracy,
three candidates are competing for the presidency after the opposition failed to form a common
front: the current vice president Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party; Hou
You-yi from the Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and leader of the Taiwan
People’s Party. The outcome of these elections will mark the course of Taiwan’s policy towards
China, with an eye on the United States, at a time of growing tension between Taipei and Beijing.
 January 14 – Inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo as president of Guatemala. To widespread
surprise, the Seed Movement candidate won the 2023 elections. Since the vote was held, political
and social tension in the country has been rising due to efforts by the Guatemalan public
prosecutor’s office to overturn the election results and prevent Arévalo from taking office.
 January 15-19 – World Economic Forum. An annual event that gathers major political leaders,
senior executives from the world’s leading companies, heads of international organisations and
NGOs, and prominent cultural and social figures. This year’s meeting will mainly focus on
examining the opportunities provided by the development of emerging technologies and their
impact on decision-making and international cooperation.
 January 15-20 – 19th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement. Uganda will be the venue for the
next summit of the 120 countries that make up this grouping of states. The theme for this edition
is “Deepening cooperation for shared global affluence” and it is scheduled to tackle multiple
global challenges of today with a view to fostering cooperation among the member states.
 January 21-23 – Third South Summit of G-77 + China. Uganda will host this forum looking to
promote South-South cooperation, under the theme “Leaving no one behind”. The 134 member
states from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean will focus on the areas of trade,
investment, sustainable development, climate change and poverty eradication.
 February 4 – Presidential elections in El Salvador. Nayib Bukele, who heads the New Ideas party
and currently holds the presidency of El Salvador, is shaping up as the clear favourite for re-
election. The country has been in a state of emergency since March 2022, in response to the
security challenges affecting the nation.
 February 8 – Presidential elections in Pakistan. Since Imran Khan’s removal as prime minister in
April 2022, Pakistan has been mired in political instability, deep economic crisis and rising
violence on the part of armed groups. The elections will be supervised by a caretaker
government after the expiry of the Pakistani parliament’s five-year term in August 2023.
 February 14 – Presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia. Three candidates are competing
to succeed the current president, Joko Widodo, who after two terms cannot stand for re-election.
The next leader will face the challenges of boosting growth in an economy reliant on domestic
consumption, driving the development of the tech industry and navigating pressure from China
and the United States to protect their national interests.
 February 16-18 – 60th Munich Security Conference. Held every year, it is the leading
independent forum on international security policy and gathers high-level figures from over 70
countries. Strengthening the rules-based international order, the impact of the wars in Ukraine
and Gaza, resisting revisionist tendencies or the security implications of climate change will be
some of the main issues on this year’s agenda.
 February 17-18 – African Union Summit. Ethiopia, which holds the presidency of the African
Union, will be organising the summit. This year, it will address some of the numerous issues in
Africa, including instability in the Sahel, growing global food insecurity, natural disasters on the
continent or democratic backsliding. In addition, the tensions between Morocco and Algeria will
be centre stage as both countries are vying for the presidency.
 February 25 – Presidential elections in Senegal. Following multiple waves of protests, the current
president, Macky Sall, announced he would not be standing for a third term. It is the first time
in the country’s democratic history that a sitting president will not be standing in the elections.
The need to ensure jobs for the country’s young population will be one of the key issues in the
election campaign.
 February 26-29 – Mobile World Congress. Barcelona hosts the world’s biggest mobile phone
event, gathering the leading international tech and communications companies. This edition will
be devoted to 5G technology, connectivity, the promotion of human-centred artificial
intelligence or the digital transformation, among other themes.
 March 1 – Parliamentary elections in Iran. With an eye on the succession of the ageing Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, Iranians will elect their representatives to the Islamic Consultative Assembly and
the Assembly of Experts, the latter body in charge of electing the new supreme leader in the
coming years. The elections will be marked by the escalation of tension in the Middle East and
the deep economic and social crisis that has increased popular disaffection with the regime.
 March 8 – International Women’s Day. Now a key date on the political and social calendar of
many countries. Mass demonstrations have gained momentum in recent years, particularly in
Latin America, the United States and Europe. The common goal is the struggle for women’s
rights and gender equality throughout the world.
 March 10 – Parliamentary elections in Portugal. The country faces a snap election after the
institutional crisis triggered by the resignation of the socialist prime minister, António Costa.
The former leader was the target of a judicial investigation over alleged corruption that directly
involved several members of his government team.
 March 15-17 – Presidential elections in Russia. While Vladimir Putin is expected to secure re-
election, maintaining his grip on power until 2030, Russia will go to the polls against a backdrop
of multiple domestic security challenges. The Russian withdrawal from the Ukrainian region of
Kharkiv, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the failed Wagner uprising of June 2023 and the
antisemitic disturbances in the North Caucus in October could force Putin to use the election
calendar to embark on major a shakeup of the political and military leaderships.
 March 18 – 10th anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The annexation of Crimea by
Russia, which had invaded the region some weeks earlier, was formalised via a referendum on
Crimea’s political status that went ahead without international recognition. The event took place
following the fall of the then Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian, in the
wake of a series of protests with a clear pro-European bent.
 March 21-22 – Nuclear Energy Summit. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the
Belgian government will gather over 30 heads of state and government from across the world,
as well as energy industry and civil society representatives. The summit seeks to promote
nuclear energy in the face of the challenges posed by reducing the use of fossil fuels, enhance
energy security and boost sustainable economic development.
 March 31 – Presidential elections in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian constitution,
presidential elections must be held on the last Sunday in March of the fifth year of the
presidential term of office. However, it is uncertain whether they will go ahead given they are
illegal under martial law, in effect since the start of Russia’s invasion of the country in 2022. A
lack of funds and the Ukrainian people’s opposition to holding elections in wartime are
important factors.
 March 31 – Local elections in Turkey. The Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition,
is hoping to maintain control of the key municipalities it won in 2019. They include the capital,
Ankara, Istanbul and other major cities. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s re-election and the retention of
the parliamentary majority in the elections of 2023 have prompted his Justice and Development
Party (AK Party) to try to make up ground at municipal level.
 April 7 – 30th anniversary of the genocide in Rwanda. The deaths of the presidents of Burundi
and Rwanda in a plane crash provided the trigger for a campaign of organised and systematic
extermination of members of the Tutsi population at the hands of Hutu extremists that would
last 100 days. On July 15th, 1994, the Rwandan Patriotic Front established a transitional
government of national unity in Kigali that would put an end to the genocide. Between 500,000
and 1 million people are estimated to have been murdered.
 April-May – General elections in India. Despite growing illiberal tendencies, the “world’s
biggest democracy” goes to the polls in April and May. The current prime minister, Narendra
Modi, is aiming for a third term against an opposition that is more united than ever under the
Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
 May 2 – Local elections in the United Kingdom. Elections will take place for local councils and
mayors in England, including London and the combined authority of Greater Manchester. The
elections will be seen as an indicator of the level of support both for the Labour Party and for the
Conservatives ahead of general elections scheduled for January 2025.
 May 5 – General elections in Panama. Panamanian society will elect new representatives for the
presidency, National Assembly, mayoralty and other local representatives. The elections will
take place against a backdrop of marked polarisation and rising social tension, exacerbated by
issues relating to domestic security, political disputes and the management of natural resources.
 May 19 – Presidential and legislative elections in the Dominican Republic. The current president,
Luis Abinader, leader of the Modern Revolutionary Party, is seeking re-election in a vote in
which most opposition parties will unite under the Opposition Alliance Rescue RD. Territorial,
migration and economic tensions with neighbouring Haiti will be central issues during the
election campaign.
 June – Presidential elections in Mauritania. The current president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani,
will seek re-election after four years of business as usual following the departure in 2019 of the
former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who today faces multiple corruption charges.
The winner of the elections will have to deal with rising social tension, as well as geopolitical
tensions across the region.
 June 2 – General and federal elections in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum, the official shortlisted
presidential candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), is the clear favourite
against the main opposition candidate from the Broad Front for Mexico, formed by the
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the
Democratic Revolution (PRD). Voters will not only elect the president and the government, but
also senators and federal deputies, as well as thousands of state and/or municipal officials in 30
of the 32 federal entities.
 June 6-9 – Elections to the European Parliament. Voting will take place simultaneously in the 27
countries that form the European Union. Some of the major questions are how far populist and
far-right parties will advance, how much clout the traditional social democrat and conservative
families will wield and the possible alliances that might form for the subsequent selection of key
European posts.
 June 9 – Federal elections in Belgium. Coinciding with the Belgian presidency of the European
Union, the country will hold federal, European and regional elections on the same day. One of
the most significant issues will be how well the far-right party Vlaams Belang fares. It is aiming
for a considerable increase in its support to test the resistance of the cordon sanitaire that has
excluded it from power until now.
 June 13-15 – 50th G-7 summit in Italy. Savelletri, a small town in the Italian region of Puglia, will
be the venue for a new meeting of the G7. The summit will tackle the main geopolitical
challenges on the global stage and their impact on the international economy, along with other
crucial issues on Italy’s agenda, such as immigration and relations with Africa.
 June 20 – World Refugee Day. The number of forcibly displaced people hit all-time highs in 2023.
There are refugees and internally displaced persons due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and
the numerous conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the impacts of climate change.
During that week in June, the UNHCR will release its annual report on the global trends in
forced displacement.
 First half of 2024 – Deployment of an international mission to Haiti. Kenya will lead the
deployment of a security contingent with the participation of other countries. The goal is to
tackle the gang violence in Haiti that is causing a major security and governance crisis. In
October 2023, following a request from the secretary general and Haitian prime minister, the
United Nations Security Council authorised a multinational security support mission for a
period of one year.
 First half of 2024 – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) Summit. India will host a new
meeting of this strategic forum for the Indo-Pacific region formed by Australia, India, Japan and
the United States to address common issues regarding trade, critical technologies, human rights
and climate change.
 July – 24th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Kazakhstan holds the yearly
rotating chairmanship of the main regional forum in Central Asia for security, economic and
political affairs, made up of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The priorities of the Kazakh chairmanship focus on matters of
security and regional unity, as well as economic development and regional trade. Belarus is
expected to join the organisation this year.
 July 1 – Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.
Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the
second half of the year, amid tension with the European Commission and Parliament over its
failures to comply with EU law.