SYNOPTIC TABLE

SmoothingDecomposition
method Simple LinearMultiple
Method Regression
linear regression

Visionary Historical
Forecast Analogy
Consensus of amethod
Delphi panel

Unitary methods Multivariate

methods

Qualitative Quantitative
methods methods

BUSINESS FORECAST
Business Forecast Concept:

It is making a statement about the future value of a variable of interest. Supported either by the
analysis of available historical data, by the judgment of experts on the subject, or by a combination
of both.

It is what is expected to be observed from a variable according to the strategies historically carried
out by the company.

QUALITATIVE METHODS

They are used when there is no historical data at hand, and to generally make long-term forecasts.
This method is based on expert opinions.

VSIONARY FORECAST

It starts from the information that is at hand or from experience, and with this a guess is made
about what will happen in the future.

HISTORICAL ANALOGY

It is taking advantage of the experience you have in one market to venture into a new one.

CONSENSUS OF A PENALTY

Leverages the experience and information of a group of experts to make forecasts; To apply it, it is
enough to select and bring together a group of experts to analyze the situation and, in consensus,
reach an agreement on the future values of the variables to be predicted.

DELPHI METHOD

It is an alternative to the consensus of a panel, a group of experts is sought to make forecasts

anonymously (there should be no contact between the participants) in a series of iterative stages.

QUANTITATIVE METHODS

It is when you have historical data, and this is the most used methods. Among them are: Unitary
methods and Multivariate methods.

UNITARY METHODS

They determine the historical pattern of the variable, assume that it is maintained in the future
and take advantage of it to make forecasts.

MULTIVARIATE METHODS

Through a causal relationship established by theory or logic, it is assumed that the future values of
the variables under study can be determined by projecting the values of influencing variables that
may or may not be controlled by the researcher.
SOFTENING METHODS

They use the historical pattern of the series for future projects and make forecasts of the variable
of interest; It assumes that the future value of the variable in the period t+1 is a function of the
value of the series in the current period, t, of the previous period, t+1, and of past periods.

SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

This type occurs when an independent variable exerts influence on another dependent variable.
Example: Y= f(x)

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

It is an equation that defines the final relationship between two variables where one variable
depends on the other. It can be said that Y depends on X.

TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION DATA

They are measurements that are made of a variable over time, whether monthly, bimonthly and
quarterly, annually, etc.