Mission

Engineering and
Complexity

DAV E CHES E BROU GH

Approved for Public Release

 Agenda
• Complexity Theory – Background and
Applications
• Mission Engineering Context
• Relationship to Systems Engineering
• A Look Ahead
• Conclusion

November 2, 2022 SYSTEMS & MISSION ENGINEERING CONFERENCE Approved for Public Release 2
 17th Century Science of Dynamics
Complexity Isaac Newton
Ability to predict motion based on Newtonian mechanics
Sciences By Godfrey Kneller
Public Domain,
By Godfrey Kneller
Wikimedia

20th Century Chaos Complexity

Driven by computational Edward Lorenz, MIT Theoretical
science Computer Weather Modeling Computer Science
• deterministic nonlinear and Information
Branched into five systems Theory
distinct lines of research • Butterfly effect • Nonlinear
Fair use,
https://en.wikipedia • deterministic nature of • Emergent, non-
these systems does not predictable behavior
make them predictable • Transitions between
order and disorder

Chaos and Complexity both feature non-linearity

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 November 2, 2022
SYSTEMS & MISSION ENGINEERING CONFERENCE
Approved for Public Release
4

Castellani, B. (2018) Map of the Complexity Sciences. Art & Science Factory.
https://www.art-sciencefactory.com/complexity-map_feb09.html
Complicated Systems Complex Systems
• Engineered and Deterministic • Unordered and Stochastic
• Many interacting components • Many interacting components
• Dependencies • Dependencies, competitions,
• Predictable, known, planned and must relationships
linear behavior function • Exhibit nonlinearity, emergence,
THESE within self-organization, adaptation
THESE

Photo by Ralph Chang Photo by Michał Ludwiczak NOAA

November 2, 2022 SYSTEMS & MISSION ENGINEERING CONFERENCE Approved for Public Release 5
Systems Thinking
Focus on structure,
relationships,
interdependence
Thinking systematically
about the properties of
the whole being different
from the parts
Define the end-state and
work to fill the gaps
Complexity Theory
• the study of complex dynamic, non-linear, self-
organizing, open, emergent, sometimes chaotic
and adaptive systems (Larsen-Freeman, 1997)
• There are limits to what can be anticipated
given current knowledge
• We don’t know what we don’t know (COVID-19
results if chip shortage)

The search for simple – if not simpleminded – solutions to complex problems is a

consequence of the inability to deal with complexity
- Russell L. Ackoff, Wharton School
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“There are known knowns — there are things
we know we know. We also know there are
known unknowns — that is to say, we know
there are some things we do not know. But
there are also unknown unknowns, the ones
we don’t know we don’t know.”
- Donald Rumsfled, Secretary of Defense, February 2002

“The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence”

November 2, 2022 SYSTEMS & MISSION ENGINEERING CONFERENCE Approved for Public Release 7
Complexity Theory – Current
Santa Fe Institute
• Founded 1984
• First research institute
dedicated to the study of
complex adaptive systems
• Focus on complex physical,
biological, social, cultural,
technological areas
Cynefin Framework
• Developed in 1999 by Dave
Snowden, IBM Global Services
• Draws on research into systems
theory, complexity theory,
network theory and learning
theories
• Conceptual framework to aid in
decision-making

November 2, 2022 SYSTEMS & MISSION ENGINEERING CONFERENCE Approved for Public Release 8
 Complex Adaptive Systems General Systems Theory
Cynefin Framework
• Started in Knowledge COMPLEX COMPLICATED
Management
Unknown Unknowns Known Unknowns
• Framework for

Complexity Theory

Systems Thinking
contextualization

DISORDER
• Used to frame multiple
UNORDERED ORDERED
perspectives around a
specific event
• Scenario planning and
CHAOTIC OBVIOUS
wargaming Known Knowns
Unknowables

Kurtz and Snowden, IBM, 2003

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By Edwin Stoop (User:Marillion!!62) - [1], CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=53810658

November 2, 2022 SYSTEMS & MISSION ENGINEERING CONFERENCE Approved for Public Release 10
Mission
MISSION ENGINEERING CONSUMERS
a duty assigned to an
individual or unit

Mission Integration
Management
the synchronization,
management, and
coordination of concepts,
activities, technologies,
requirements, programs,
and budget plans to guide
key decisions focused on
the end-to-end mission.

Mission Engineering Guide, November 2020

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 the deliberate planning, analyzing, organizing, and
integrating of current and emerging operational and
Mission Engineering system capabilities to achieve desired warfighting mission
effects

The right thing, at the right place, at the right time

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 Three Axes of Mission Engineering
Mission
Engineering Complexity
Balance COST, SCHEDULE
Joint, Multi-mission
PERFORMANCE
Overreach on any axis
RISK INCREASES
will impact System of Systems
• Confidence in ME
products Single System/Mission
• Validity of analysis 5 Years
Expert Simple Six DOF
• Availability of data 15 Years Panel Model Physics

25 Years Analytical Rigor

Time
Mission Engineering Guide, November 2020
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Strategy &
Guidance Cross-Mission Capability Areas

Specific Mission Capabilities

Mission
Mission
Engineering Option 1
Analysis
Mission Mission Reference
Option 2
Architectures
Mission
Option 3

Standard Capabilities Investment

Decisions and
Capability Reference Architectures
Programmatic
Guidance
Trade studies between mission effectiveness and common capabilities

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 • Something minor has a disproportionate effect on
outcomes
The
• Complexity increases the possibility of having non-
Non-linearity linear interdependencies
Effect • Standardization of capabilities across missions
provides a measure of assurance
For want of a nail the shoe was

Common Mission Capabilities

lost. For want of a shoe the The more unique a mission thread is the greater
horse was lost. For want of a the chance of non-linear impacts on mission
horse the rider was lost. For assurance

want of a rider the battle

was lost. For want of a battle
the kingdom was lost.
- A Proverb

Risk of Complexity
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 Complex Adaptive Systems General Systems Theory

COMPLEX COMPLICATED
Unknown Unknowns Known Unknowns

R&D

Systems Engineering
DISORDER
Conflict
and UNORDERED ORDERED
Warfare

CHAOTIC OBVIOUS
Unknowables Known Knowns

Procurement
Kurtz and Snowden, IBM, 2003

November 2, 2022 SYSTEMS & MISSION ENGINEERING CONFERENCE Approved for Public Release 16
 Three Axes of Mission Engineering
What Do We
Know?
Change is constant and
unpredictable
Threat
Systems must adapt Changes

Complexity
Real-world complexity Technology
Changes
always creeps in
Budget
Present imperative is to Changes
move faster, innovate Program
Geo-political
quicker Delays Uncertainty

Time
Mission Engineering Guide, November 2020
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 This is the time to look at the
complexity dimension and its Mission Characteristics
How does ME relationship to time and
Deal with uncertainties
Problem
Mission Metrics
Timeframe for mission
Complexity Statements
Anticipated and Likely and
By addressing questions that Unanticipated Unlikely
impact mission architectures Identify
while planning the analysis Known
Threats Scenarios
• What are we trying to do? Unknowns
ME and
• Who should be doing it? Analysis Unknown
New Force Planning Unknowns
• What is the context? (reasonable
Structure and
• What is the timeframe? competencies what if’s)

Relationships Theaters
Technologies CONOPS
Dependencies Logistics Assumptions Vignettes
Joint
Environments Allies
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 Adaptive Acquisition Framework
Problem
Statements GMRA/GCRA

Threats Scenarios
ME
Analysis
Planning

Concept Acquisition Process

Assumptions Vignettes

Specification
Operations
Mission Engineering Architecture • Joint Integrated Ops
Capability Assessment • Multi-Service Force
Design Deployment
Design for Flexibility • Obsolescence
Trade Studies
• Digital Engineering Planning
• Modeling & Simulation Development
• MOSA
• SOS Interoperability

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Summary

• Mission Engineering addresses complexity

• Problem Statements, Scenarios, Assumptions
• Systems Engineering Provides Flexibilities
• Modeling and simulation
• MOSA
• SOS Interoperability
• Over time the ability to deal with complexity shifts from
design to operations – plan on it!
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Thank You Dave Chesebrough
dchesebrough@definedbusiness.com

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