Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam’s Leadership: Better
Red than Expert?
June 26, 2024

What is your assessment that the resignation of Dinh Tien Dung from the Politburo
means that “better red than expert” is the criterion for leadership selection and that
Le Minh Hung is only technocrat among the Politburo’s fifteen members?
ANSWER: Dr Nguyen Khac Giang wrote a short opinion article that is thought
provoking but needs further elaboration. The Vietnamese expression “red and expert”
(vừa hồng vừa chuyên) is a long-standing one that means party cadres should be both
knowledgeable about politics and have specialist knowledge. The historical context
implied that party cadres should learn more about politics (communist ideology) in
order to do their jobs better.
In May 2024, it was reported that the newly restructured Politburo had five members
with an economics background or a degree in economics including Le Minh Hung, a
former Governor of the State Bank. Dr. Giang should clarify the difference between a
specialist (chuyên gia) and a technocrat (nhà kỹ trị).
Dr. Giang argues that the historical balance between ”red and expert” has shifted
among the top leadership to favour those proficient in communist ideology (hồng) as
compared to those who have technical or economic expertise (chuyên).
Dr. Giang argues this shift “raises concerns about Vietnams capacity to tackle
multifaceted challenges, from economic issues to energy transition and foreign
policy… This reinforces the belief that it is wiser for bureaucrats to play safe by doing
less and survive rather than taking sides.”
The case of Pham Minh Chinh challenges Giang’s assumption. When Chinh was
appointed Prime Minister there was criticism that he lacked a specialist background
in economics. Minh had just served as the party secretary of Quang Ninh province
that topped Vietnam’s Provincial Competitive Index. As I observed at the time,
perhaps he was good at listening to specialist advice and good at management.
Also, Dr. Giang does not mention the Government (Cabinet) and the qualifications of
current ministers as the prime source of technical expertise to lead Vietnam.
Finally, the methodology of grouping all current and former members of the Ministry
of Public Security and Ministry of National Defence into two separate blocs appears
perfunctory. Both Nguyen Tan Dung and Pham Minh Chinh served in the Ministry of
Public Security before becoming prime minister. There is no evidence that they
pursued a public security agenda.
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam’s Leadership: Better Red than Expert?”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 26, 2024. All background briefs are posted
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.