Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Does Political Loyalty Trump
Expertise in Vietnam’s
Politburo?
June 27, 2024

We request your assessment of the following issues”

Q1. With the resignation of Dinh Tien Dung, the former chief of Hanoi's capital, it
is evident that most Politburo members prioritize political loyalty over technical
expertise (better red than expert), with Le Minh Hung being the sole exception.
What is your assessment of this observation?
ANSWER: This dichotomy is too simple and ill-defined to explain the complex
leadership changes ongoing in Vietnam. Historically, Vietnam has sought leaders
who were both red and expert. Red meant they were steeped in communist
ideology. All of the Politburo members elected at the thirteenth national party
congress or subsequently appointed have a high level of political knowledge
according to their biographies; they studied at party schools and were products
of the Ho Chi Minh National Political Academy.
There is no evidence that any of the seven Politburo members who resigned were
disloyal to the party in the sense that they rejected its ideology or fundamental
principles or policies. Rather the seven were found to have violated party rules on
setting an example, doing things that they should not have done. or failed to
supervise their subordinates effectively.
Transparency International produces an annual Perceptions of Corruption Index
that ranks countries on a scale of 100 (very clean) to 0 (very corrupt). When
Nguyen Phu Trong became party General Secretary in 2011, Vietnam ranked 2.7.
Vietnam has improved every year until 2023 when its ranking dropped from 43 to
42. Vietnam ranks just below the world average in corruption.
In sum, despite the anti-corruption campaign and some improvement, corruption
remains pervasive in Vietnam. There are obviously some areas of governance,
such land, property development, construction, that are more conducive to
bribery than others. It appears that it was quite normal for officials to take
advantage of this environment for personal benefit. In other words, they were
greedy or managerially inept but not politically disloyal to the party.
There is no evidence that any of the seven members of the Politburo who
resigned belonged to a faction, clique or interest group (nhóm lợi ích) that
operated against the party’s ideology, principles or policies for political reasons.
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In the case of Dien Tien Dung, he was caught up in the expanding investigation
into the Van Thinh Phat Group, An Dong Group JSC and Advanced International
JSC (AIC) dating back to 2016-2021.
Q2. Who are the potential candidate2 to succeed Dinh Tien Dung?
ANSWER: The Hanoi party secretary is usually a member of the Politburo. I can
only speculate on two possible candidates: Phan Dinh Trac and Tran Cam Tu.
Q3. In light of Nguyen Van Yen's arrest, do you anticipate that Phan Dinh Trac,
the Chairman of the Party Central Committee’s Commission for Internal Affairs,
will bear the primary responsibility?
ANSWER: We don’t have enough information yet. On the face of it, Yen illegally
appropriated documents that were state secrets “in Hanoi and some other
localities.” We don’t know when this took place, for how long, how this material
was used, and whether administrative procedures for safeguarding classified
material were inadequate or lax.
If there was a pervasive disregard for the security of classified documents then
Trac would most likely be disciplined.
Q4. The Politburo has lost seven members during this term. What does this
number indicate about current personnel issues?
ANSWER: The loss of seven Politburo members is an indication that General
Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s priority on party-building has been hollowed out
by his campaign against corruption and negative phenomena.
During his three terms as party leader the selection process to identify and vet
“red, clean and specialist” leaders has failed. Leadership transition has been
sclerotic at the best of times. The Politburo and Central Committee will have to
recommend more exemptions to the mandatory requirement age or change the
rules and extend the retirement age from two to three or more years in order to
fill all the seats on the new Politburo.
Vietnam faces an unprecedented situation because only two members of the
current Politburo will have served one full five-year term and be under the
mandatory retirement age of 65 when the fourteenth congress convenes, Tran
Thanh Man and Tran Cam Tu.
The remaining thirteen members may be divided into three groups.
The first group comprises two members who have served at least two full terms:
Nguyen Phu Trong and Pham Minh Chinh. Both will be over 65 and need
exemptions from the mandatory retirement age.
The second group comprises seven members who will be completing their first
term in 2026: To Lam,. Phan Van Giang, Luong Cuong, Nguyen Van Nen, Nguyen
Xuan Thang, Nguyen Hoa Binh and Pham Dinh Trac. All the members of this
group will be over 65 in 2026.
The third group comprises four new members who were appointed in 2024: Do
Van Chien, Bui Thi Minh Hai, Nguyen Trong Nghia and Le Minh Hung. All the
members of this group will be under 65 in 2026.
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While the size of the fourteenth Politburo will not be known until the end of the
party congress in 2026, it appear there will be a larger than usual intake of new
members not to mention a likely new General Secretary.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Does Political Loyalty Trump Expertise in

Vietnam’s Politburo?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 27, 2024. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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