Load forecasting

Prediction of load and energy level for future by a utility for a given
region.
Objectives:
• To make advanced decision for profitable and judicious investment .
• To estimate quantity and timing of additional power to satisfy
future needs.
• To keep the system reliability at desired level.
• To provide basis for examining energy supply problem of a country
in a broader perspective.
• To assist in determining capital expenditure requirements for
system growth and system adequacy
• To assist in determining fuel supply requirements .
 Classification(1)
Based on duration of future demand
• Long term forecasting
➢ 20-30 years duration
➢ Uses past data for prediction
➢ Used for planning the generation expansion strategy
➢ Examines energy supply problems in a broader perspective
• Short term forecasting
➢ 2-5 years duration
➢ Used to decide operating procedure and budget estimates
• Immediate forecasting
➢ Next hour demand
➢ Vital for efficient operation of thermal system
 Classification(2)
Based on geographical area
• National load forecast
➢ Annual peak load and annual energy for the whole country.
➢ Done usually by CGOU on a long term basis.
• Regional forecast
➢ Carried out for some large geographical region of a country.
➢ Usually done both by CGOU and privately or investor owned
utility.
• Specific area wise forecast
• Usually carried out in a particular area by small local utility.
 Classification(3)
Based on power generation, transmission
and distribution
• Load forecasting for generation
➢ Finds the size of new power plants on the basis of forecasted peak
demand plus spinning reserve.
• Load forecasting for transmission and distributions
➢ To estimate optimum size of transformer and conductors.
➢ To maintain good voltage profile
➢ To operate transmission line without stability limit violated.
 Classification(4)
Based on Global Consideration
• Global forecasting
➢Evaluates the energy resources scenario and
the environmental impacts associated with its
utilization in the global context.
➢Carried out usually by institutions like World
Bank, World Energy Commission etc.
Factors to be kept in mind while
forecasting(1)
➢The general geographical region and sub
regions where power is to be sold.
➢Topography and climate of the region and
its effect on the load requirement.
➢Population distribution ,past growth and
estimated future growth.
➢Availability of labor ,past distribution and
estimated future available labor.
Factors to be kept in mind while
forecasting(2)
➢ Income per person
➢ Main economic activities i.e. agriculture
,textiles etc.
➢ The existing use and the existing rate of
consumption of electrical energy.
➢ Relative cost of electrical energy and the
other forms of energy available in the
regions.
➢ Natural resources of the region viz.
agriculture ,timber , minerals and raw
materials for manufacturing industries
 Errors and Uncertainties in Load
forecasting:
Whatever be the method of forecast, the actual value in
nth year never equals the predicted value for that year.
Uncertainty results from error in any one of the past data,
presently collected data and the error in the degree of
certainty with which historical trend supposed to continue
in the future, the error in the survey data (initialization
data) and test data etc. The chief sources of errors are as
follows:
• Error in the historically recorded data.
• Error in measuring instruments.
• Error in calculation.
• Error introduced by particular forecasting method
• Error in coincidence factor and load factors.
 Approaches to load forecasting(1)
• Time series approach
In this approach of forecasting, the system is
treated as a black box and no attempt is made to
discover the factors affecting its behaviour. The
reasons for treating the system as black box are:
• the system may not be understood and even if it is
understood, it may be extremely difficult to measure the
relationship governing its behaviour.
• The main concern may be only to predict what will happen
and not to know why it happens.
 Approaches to load forecasting(2)
• Explanatory approach
In this approach, any change in the inputs will
affect the output of the system in a predictable
way assuming that the cause and effect
relationship between input and output is
constant.
So the first task while forecasting is to find the
cause and effect relationship by observing the
output of the system and relating that to the
corresponding inputs..
 SIMCRED Equation for forecasting
electrical energy demand
• SIMCRED stands for simulation model for
commercial, non commercial and electrical energy
demand
• SIMCRED Equation:
Log(EEL/N) = -0.896+1.1581 log(Y/N)
+0.499 log(NU/N)
Where, EEL= Electrical energy in 1000 KWh
N =Population in millions
NU =Urban population in millions
Y =Gross national product in billions US$
Y/N= Per capita GNP in US$
 Load Forecasting by Survey
Method(1)
• Survey method are used when historical data are not available
• The loads are grouped under different categories such as
domestic, commercial, industrial etc.
• Survey sheets are used to collect detail information area wise
and category wise
• Information like demand factor, group diversity factor (group
coincidence factor) and Peak diversity factor(peak coincidence
factor) etc. can be found from the survey sheet
• Peak load for each category and hence the total maximum
demand can be found using the above information
 Load Forecasting by Survey
Method(2)
Sample of survey sheet:
Zone: District: Municipality/VDC:
Ward no.: Village: Type of consumer:
Consumer No.:
Type of load Time period in a day when the load is on

Light(bulb) 6 pm to 9 pm
Light (tube) 6 pm to 9 pm
Fans 11 am to 4 pm
….. ---