Sudan Economic Outlook

Recent macroeconomic and financial developments

GDP grew 0.7% in 2022 after contracting 1.9% in 2021 on account of political instabilities and
spillover effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Growth in 2022 was driven by agriculture and
mining on the supply side and by private consumption on the demand side. The central bank
adopted reserve money targeting, reducing money supply growth to 48% in 2022 compared with
153% in 2021. Inflation eased from 359.1% in 2021 to 139% in 2022 due largely to unifying the
exchange rate and reducing monetization of the fiscal deficit. Banks dominate the financial
sector, accounting for over 80% of assets. Fiscal consolidation and improvement in public
revenue reduced the fiscal deficit to 1.5% of GDP in 2022 from 4.7% in 2021. Sudan’s $56
billion external debt (163% of GDP) in 2020 was expected to fall 50% by 2022 after the country
achieved its decision point under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) in June
2021. However, progress toward its HIPC completion point stalled due to the military takeover
in October 2021. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.4% of GDP in 2022 due to higher
exports following the normalization of operations at Port Sudan. The current account deficit was
financed by portfolio investment and remittances. International reserves increased to 2.7 months
of import cover in 2022 from 2.3 in 2021. The poverty rate rose from 64.6% in 2021 to 66.1% in
2022, and unemployment remained high, at 20.6% in 2022, due partly to reduced economic
activity, owing to political instability.

Outlook and risks

GDP is projected to grow 2.0% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024 on account of reduced political
instability following the Framework Agreement signed between the military and civilians.
Growth is projected to be driven by agriculture and mining on the supply side and private
consumption and investment on the demand side. Headwinds include political instability, tighter
global financial markets, and the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, ongoing
efforts to implement the Framework Agreement are expected to restore political stability and
accelerate the rollout of structural reforms. Consequently, inflation is projected to moderate to
83.2% in 2023 and 75.5% in 2024. Sustained rationalization of public spending is projected to
reduce the fiscal deficit to 1.4% of GDP in 2023 and 2024. The fiscal deficit will be financed by
domestic and external borrowing. The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 2.5% of
GDP in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024 as exports stabilize.

Climate change issues and policy options

Sudan faces land degradation, temperature increases, frequent droughts and floods, erratic
rainfall, and locust invasions, which have reduced agricultural output, slowed GDP growth, and
destroyed livelihoods. If Sudan receives the same $160 million a year in climate finance that it
received over 2016–20, the average financing gap would be $2.39 billion a year during 2020–30,
limiting its ability to build climate resilience. Sudan is unlikely to mobilize this huge financing
from public sources; this calls for active engagement of the private sector, which spends $50
million a year on climate-related activities. Sudan has strong natural capital, with huge natural
resource endowments, including arable land, livestock, and minerals. Hindered by financing
deficiencies, Sudan has yet to harness these resources for economic transformation, as less than
40% of GDP is generated from natural capital. Private engagement in climate finance is held
back by lack of government incentives, high risks, and low returns on investments in nature-
based solutions. Consequently, enabling policy frameworks to facilitate the establishment of
natural capital-based markets to crowd-in private investment and finance are critical. Such
policies include carbon taxation, clean technology subsidies, and bank loans linked to net-zero
emissions.

https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/east-africa/sudan/sudan-economic-
outlook
Türkiye is the 17th largest economy in the world, according to IMF, with a GDP of $1024 billion
as of 2023. It is a member of the OECD and the G20 and an increasingly important donor of
official development assistance (ODA).

Türkiye pursued ambitious reforms and enjoyed high growth rates between 2006 and 2017,
which propelled the country to the higher reaches of upper-middle-income status and reduced
poverty. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5.4% between 2002 and 2022,
resulting in income per capita (in real terms) that was more than doubled over the same period.
Growth was accompanied by rapid poverty reduction; the poverty rate decreased by more than
half from above 20% in 2007 to 7.6% in 2021. As of 2021, the share of people below the
$6.85 per day.

For Türkiye to preserve and further its progress, it must navigate through significant challenges
that encompass economic resilience, poverty and inclusion, and sustainability. Key among these
is revitalizing economic growth in a post-COVID era marked by a challenging macroeconomic
climate and a downward trend in productivity observed since the mid-2010s. Furthermore,
although economic expansion has continued, the reduction in poverty rates has lost momentum
since 2016, hindered by increasing inequality. On the environmental front, Türkiye's industrial
base and transport heavily relies on carbon-intensive processes and fossil fuels, presenting both
challenges and opportunities in light of the European Union's forthcoming Carbon Border
Adjustment Mechanism—a critical consideration given the EU's role as a major market for
Turkish exports. Lastly, Türkiye's distinct geographic and socioeconomic conditions
significantly increase its vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, underscoring the
imperative for comprehensive adaptation measures.

Türkiye is addressing the effects of the earthquakes that hit the country on February 6, 2023.
With magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, the earthquakes were followed by thousands of aftershocks and
another 6.7 magnitude earthquake on February 20. According to official statistics, they caused
more than 50,000 casualties, injured 107,000 people, damaged or destroyed 1.9 million housing
units, and displaced 3.3 million people, of whom two million needed shelter. An assessment by
the Government of Türkiye with support from the EU, the United Nations (UN), and the World
Bank Group estimated the recovery and reconstruction needs associated with the earthquakes at
around $81.5 billion. Risks also remain high, with about 70% of the country’s population living
in first- and second-degree seismic zones.

Following the May 2023 elections, the newly appointed economic team has launched a
comprehensive policy set to address past macroeconomic imbalances, especially high inflation.
Since then, Türkiye has been moving to normalizing its macroeconomic strategies. The country
experienced a robust economic expansion of 4.5% in 2023. However, this growth rate is
expected to decrease to 3.0% in 2024, before picking up again in subsequent years on a stronger
basis. Longstanding macro and structural challenges that undermine potential growth—including
high inflation, low productivity growth, low labor force participation, and employment levels,
and weakening foreign direct investment—would require robust fiscal measures and ambitious
structural reforms to help accelerate sustainable economic growth.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/overview