Delhivery Kotak

India Daily
March 05, 2024 NIFTY50 [Mar 04]: 22,406
Contents
Daily Alerts
Change in Reco
Delhivery: Conditions apt to take the bold call; upgrade to BUY
 Ecommerce players realizing that there isn’t another Delhivery
 Peers have limited defense against unrelenting pricing pressure of Delhivery
 Delhivery business model will magnify gains from volume gains
 We increase FV to Rs570 (from Rs500), upgrade to BUY (from ADD)
Company Alerts
Adani Ports and SEZ: Gaining momentum; defying seasonality and Red Sea overhang
 Daily volumes in February up 30% yoy versus 26% growth in January
 Moving toward the 500 mn ton mark for FY2025 set four years in advance
 Volume growth may see impact of margin uptick as well, starting with Mundra
 We increase estimates by 5% and revise FV to Rs1,520 (from Rs1,400)
Eicher Motors: Domestic volume growth to moderate
 Muted demand trends in richer states weigh on RE’s domestic performance
 Category expansion benefit to be offset by increase in competitive intensity
 Fine-tune our FY2024-26 consolidated EPS estimates; maintain SELL rating
Signature Global: Strong sales momentum continues in Gurugram
 Launch of Deluxe-DXP leads to pre-sales of Rs36 bn
 Favorable transition to higher price products
 Strong sales performance prompts upward revision in operational numbers
Private Circulation Only.

This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
CHANGE IN RECO.
Delhivery (DELHIVER) BUY

Transportation
CMP(₹): 459 Fair Value(₹): 570 Sector View: Attractive NIFTY-50: 22,406 March 04, 2024
Conditions apt to take the bold call; upgrade to BUY Company data and valuation summary
Our assessment of the positioning of the players’ ecommerce ecosystem and Stock data
recent developments makes us more confident of increasing relevance of
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 459/570/BUY
Delhivery over time. We build a five-year period of overperformance, making
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 488-314
Delhivery grow 1.2X the sector growth (1X earlier) beyond the next two years
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 338/4.1
of growth uncertainty. The same has ramifications for margin improvement,
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 1,223/14.8
magnifying benefits from share gains. We increase FV to Rs570 (from Rs500).
Shareholding pattern (%)
Ecommerce players realizing that there isn’t another Delhivery
0.0
Meesho’s recent decision to give more traffic to its captive arm potentially
suggests its endeavor to hedge against pricing moves by its vendors. Unlike 35.0
42.4
Delhivery, its peers have not been able to meaningfully improve cost structure
with higher volumes and have seen their losses accelerate faster than sales.
The other captive in Amazon has given significant share of its outsourced 6.30.1 16.3
logistics business to Delhivery (relying on its service levels). Flipkart has
Promoters FPIs MFs BFIs Retail Others
recently shared the need to reduce its cost of logistics to accelerate
ecommerce growth—we assess its costing per parcel being at a meaningful
Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
premium to the pricing of Delhivery in spite of similar service level requirement, Absolute (3) 15 34
lesser lead distance (higher share of metros) and simpler first mile pick-up. Rel. to Nifty (6) 6 7
Rel. to MSCI India (6) 3 (1)
Peers have limited defense against unrelenting pricing pressure of Delhivery
Forecasts/Valuations 2024E 2025E 2026E
Losses of Delhivery’s peers in express parcel have only accelerated with
EPS (Rs) (2.8) 0.1 2.4
accelerated growth. Some of these peers have large concentration to Meesho
EPS growth (%) 80.2 102.6 3,287.4
and limited presence with Amazon and Flipkart or to PTL business. The
P/E (X) (164.7) 6,402.4 189.0
pressure on peers likely started with Delhivery lowering its pricing meaningfully
P/B (X) 3.7 3.6 3.5
in FY2022. Xpressbees has access to large cash position but has a variablized
EV/EBITDA (X) 216.9 66.2 38.8
cost structure—increases risk to service levels with scale. Ecom Express has a
RoE (%) (2.2) 0.1 1.9
higher investment quotient of operations though has a constrained cash
Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
position and absence of new investors coming over the past two years.
Sales (Rs bn) 82 97 115
EBITDA (Rs bn) 1 5 8
Delhivery business model will magnify gains from volume gains
Net profits (Rs bn) (2) 0 2
Delhivery is invested in terms of infrastructure for the next 25%/40% of growth
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
in Express Parcel/PTL business and expects meaningful operating leverage
from incremental growth. It is working on investing in setting up a common Prices in this report are based on the market close of
March 04, 2024
warehouse management system for clients, new service offering in PTL
business and in building awareness in the retail/SME part of the market.
We increase FV to Rs570 (from Rs500), upgrade to BUY (from ADD)

The increase in FV of 14% is driven broadly equally from higher revenue CAGR
(~20% over FY2024E-32E) and higher adjusted EBITDA margin (50-250 bps).
Our growth assumptions factor in Amazon and Flipkart growing their captive
business at 80% of the pace of their volume growth, helping Delhivery gain
share. We increase our adjusted margin estimates due to the impact of faster
growth and a higher gross margin on incremental revenues of express parcel
and PTL segment—we build ~10% adjusted EBITDA margin in FY2028, implying
gross margin on incremental revenues lower than the 30-50% guidance.
Full sector coverage on KINSITE
Aditya Mongia Deepak Krishnan Sai Siddhardha P

3
We assess the different parts of the ecommerce and related logistics ecosystem to better understand
their issues and options available to solve the same. Such assessment increases our confidence of
Delhivery gaining relevance in ecommerce logistics over time.
Amazon India: Service levels important; relies on Delhivery for large part of its outsourcing needs
Higher cost of insourced logistics potentially reflective of differentiated offering. Amazon has
invested in the Prime offering over the past eight years. Its captive logistics business has a scale of
business similar to Delhivery. While its costing per parcel appears to be at a premium to Delhivery
(close to Rs90 per parcel in our assessment), the same may be reflective of a timely offering. Note
that Amazon offers free same day/next day delivery to its prime customers with no additional cost.
Amazon largely relies on Delhivery for outsourced logistics. Amazon (similar to Flipkart) has so far
gone for predominantly insourced logistics solution. While the same was a rational decision a decade
ago when the choices for outsourcing logistics were limited, the same isn’t true today.
Flipkart: Coming to a realization that cost of logistics is impeding growth

Higher cost of insourced logistics may be attributable to a less efficient operation. Unlike Amazon,
Flipkart has not been able to establish an equivalent Prime programme offering free same day/next
day delivery. Flipkart VIP, its third attempt, appears to not have succeeded. Flipkart still appears to be
operating at a cost similar to Amazon at Rs90 per parcel in our assessment in spite of it lacking as
much of same day/next day Prime offering.
Flipkart has shared cost of logistics coming in way of growth. In a recent interview, Flipkart
management talked about how solving the cost of logistics was one of the biggest challenges for the
e-commerce segment. Flipkart does a large part of its logistics in-house. In spite of having the largest
scale in logistics (2X of Delhivery), Flipkart’s logistics arm has reported the largest aggregate losses
in the past five years across e-commerce logistics businesses.
Meesho: Reassessing logistics potentially on account of a few vendors not bringing down cost of
logistics
Succeeded in establishing self-logistics of scale. Meesho’s business depends meaningfully on its
ability to minimize the cost of logistics. The profit it makes on this business prominently features in
its bottom-line. Meesho otherwise operates a zero-commission model alongside advertising
revenues. In the recent past, Meesho has started increasing the share of volumes where it is
responsible for the related logistics. Such business has achieved reasonable scale (1 mn parcel per
day as per Meesho’s recent press release). The same suggests that Meesho has been able to set up
the related cost overheads and investments in technology for it to support the orchestration of
ecommerce logistics.
Focus appears to be on hedging against risk of select existing vendors faltering. Meesho has
recently started pushing more logistics volumes through its in-house arm in Valmo. In doing so, it is
taking responsibility of the following works—(1) trucking, (2) sorting, (3) managing returns, (4)
orchestrating logistics (tech, business development, training, management cost) and (5) lost
shipment/damage. We assess Meesho is potentially trying to protect its cost of logistics against
pressure from select peers of increasing their pricing (and Meesho’s costing). We note that select
ecommerce players have seen their losses increase faster that the growth in revenues in FY2023,
enhancing the case for such a demand for higher pricing.
Delhivery may be impacted less and its peers more. Meesho accounts for a minority share of
Delhivery’s revenues and a majority share of its peers’ revenues. For instance, Ecom Express has
mentioned in its recent filing that 73% of its external revenues come form top-three customers. Based
on assessment, both Flipkart and Amazon would account for a smaller share of top-three customers.
This implies that Meesho account for majority the 73% revenue share for Ecom Express. We also note
that Delhivery is better placed among its peers to further lower cost of logistics. This makes peers to
Delhivery a lot more prone to market share losses within Meesho’s logistics pie as it moves more
toward self-logistics model.
Delhivery
Transportation India Research
4
Ecom Express: Limited cash position makes business continuity dependent on uptick in funding from
promoters
Uptick in FY2023 losses have led to modest cash position. Ecom Express ended FY2023 with a cash
position of Rs3 bn and an FCF loss of Rs3.7 bn. The last publicly known round of funding happened
in October 2022 of Rs3 bn. The same puts the company in a weak position in terms of its cash
position.
Future dependent on ability to raise funding from existing and future investors. Partners group came
in 2020 with a large US$250 mn investment to get a 35% comparable to Warburg Pincus. Warburg
Pincus reduced its stake in such transaction from 75% earlier and has further reduced contribution in
incremental rounds of funding. The last publicly known round of funding of US$39 mn saw
participation of Partners group (US$29 mn), Warburg Pincus invested (~US$6 mn) and CDC Group put
in the remaining amount.
Xpressbees: Cash position healthy though dependence on variablized cost structure a constraint
Funding boost has more than mitigated issue of FY2023 losses. Xpressbees ended FY2023 with a
cash position of Rs11 bn and additional funding rounds of close to Rs6 bn on a YTD basis. The
resulting cash position of Rs17 bn is ~5.5X FCF losses of FY2023. The same gives visibility of more
than five years based on the ability of Xpressbees to bring down losses.
Variablized nature of cost structure may come in way of expanding scale. While cash isn’t the
problem for Xpressbees, we do note limited investments made in the business by the company over
the past few years. Xpressbees stands out with Rs8 of incremental revenue for every rupee of capex
over the past five years, a quantum of Rs2-3 for other peers in Ecom Express, Amazon Transportation,
Ekart and Delhivery. Our discussion with the industry suggests growth moderation for Xpressbees on
an FYTD basis on an organic basis after growing revenues 33% yoy in FY2023.
Adding adjacent businesses may create issues of integration. The company has recently acquired
Trackon to enter SME courier space. Trackon has largely been focused in the northern and western
parts of the country, serving around 5,000 PIN codes. Xpressbees is present in around 15,000 PIN
codes.
We expect Delhivery to gain share and grow at 20% CAGR or 1.2X sector growth driven by lower instances of outsourcing by Amazon
and Flipkart
Our assessment of the change in market share for ecommerce logistics over the next 5-7 years
Split of logistics volumes assuming 17% CAGR in market volumes (%)

Delhivery Remaining Meesho Amazon+Flipkart Others
100%
7 11 13
80% 14% CAGR 12% CAGR
50 42 35
60%
40% 20% CAGR 21% CAGR

29
23 27
20%
17% CAGR 20% CAGR
20 20 23
0%
Current Market share Market share over time (assuming no Market share over time (assuming
change in outsourcing mix) changing mix of self-logisitcs)
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Delhivery
5
We now build a period of outperformance of Delhivery's express parcel over FY2027-32 versus market performance earlier. We also
build related margin benefit
Growth in express parcel segment of Delhivery, March fiscal year ends, 2025E-32E (%)
2025 2026 2027 2029 2030 2031 2032 CAGR
Growth in express parcel volumes
Market 16 16 18 18 18 18 18 17
Delhivery - old estimate 15 15 18 18 18 18 18 17
Delhivery - revised estimate 15 15 21 21 21 21 21 19
Period of growing relevance Period of Flipkart and Amazon reducing instances of self-logistics
Thesis
of Valmo
Adjusted EBITDA margin

Delhivery - old estimate 4.5 5.7 6.6 7.4 8.2 9.0 9.8
Delhivery - revised estimate 4.3 6.2 8.7 9.8 10.7 11.7 12.6
Period of improving Period of Delhivery growing its express parcel much faster than market
Thesis
profitability of SCM business
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Delhivery took a sharp price cut in FY2022 and has since broadly maintained prices
Delhivery's yield in the express parcel segment, March fiscal year-ends, 2019-24E (Rs/parcel)
Key Express Parcel Overall

Revenues (LHS, Rs bn)
100 92 Per unit revenue
88 EBITDA margin on pre Ind-AS116 basis (RHS, %)
86
100 4
1.0 1.5
80 72 2
69 68
80
0
60
60 (2)
(5.6) (4)
40 (7.0)
40 (6)
(9.1) (8)
20 20
(11.3) (10)
0 - (12)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E
Xpressbees and Ecom Express have seen their losses growing faster than sales in the past year
Comparison of Delhivery versus peers in ecommerce logistics, March fiscal year-ends, 2019-23
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Comment
Revenues (Rs bn)
Xpressbees 5 8 10 19 25 Xpressbees and
Ecom Express 10 12 16 21 25 Ecom Express are
Instakart (Flipkart) 44 47 66 103 128 presently half the size
Amazon Transporation Services 21 30 41 46 NA of Delhivery's relevant
Delhivery (express parcel) 14 19 26 42 46 business
Revenue growth (%)

Xpressbees 100 40 33 90 33
Xpressbees and
Ecom Express 78 23 32 31 20
Ecom Express have
Instakart (Flipkart) 75 6 40 57 24
grown faster than
Amazon Transporation Services 31 43 37 13 NA
Delhivery
Delhivery (express parcel) 35 40 32 64 9
PBT margin (%) excluding other income

Xpressbees (24) (14) (8) (3) (10) Xpressbees and
Ecom Express 2 (1) 1 (7) (12) Ecom Express have
Instakart (Flipkart) (10) (37) (31) (21) (4) seen meaningfully
Amazon Transporation Services (2) (2) (2) (2) NA deterioration in
Delhivery (18) (14) (12) (5) (11) profitability
Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities
Delhivery
6
Xpressbees has a better cash position versus Ecom Express with influx of new investors
Comparison of the cash position against trend in recent annual losses, March fiscal year-ends,
2022, 2023
Operating cash Free cash flow Cash position Incremental
loss (average loss (average past as of end- cash raised Nature of recent equity
past two years) two years) FY023 FYTD24 infusion
Ecom Express 0.3 3.4 5.0 NA By existing investors
Xpressbees 0.3 1.3 11.0 5.7 Includes new investors
Shadowfax 1.0 1.4 1.4 8.2 (a) Includes new investors
Notes
(a) Rs8.2 bn represents the size of fund raise, part of which may not be a primary raise
Source: Companies, Industry reports, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Xpressbees has a much lower investment quotient versus peers and thus prone to risks to service levels as
scale increases
Incremental revenues on Rs1 of capex averaged over past five years (Rs)
Incremental revenues on Rs1 of capex averaged over past five years

10
8
8
4 3 3
2
2
2
0
Xpressbees Delhivery Amazon (logistics) Ecom Express Flipkart (logistics)
Notes:
(a) We define capex intensity as incremental sales divided by capex for a time period
(b) We use four year period for Amazon Transportation as FY2023 financials are not disclosed thus far
Flipkart's logistics arm has invested the most for setting up the current top-line
Comparison of investment gone to create existing scale of revenues, March fiscal year-end, 2023
Revenues (A) - Equity+net debt- (A)/(B) -

(Rs bn) goodwill (B) - (Rs bn) (X)
Ekart 128 101 1.3
Ecom Express 25 10 2.6
Delhivery 72 22 3.3
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Delhivery
7
We increase FV to Rs570 from Rs500

DCF valuation of Delhivery, March fiscal year-ends, 2021-45E (Rs mn)
CAGR CAGR CAGR
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2035E 2045E (2022-25E) (2025E-35E) (2035E-45E)
Revenues 36,352 67,387 72,268 82,150 97,027 573,900 1,881,844 13 19 13
Growth (%) 31 85 7 14 18 18 12
Service EBITDA 2,181 6,904 4,214 9,534 13,325 107,808 356,916 24 23 13
Service EBITDA margin (%) 6.0 10.2 5.8 11.6 13.7 18.8 19.0
Corporate overheads (including ESOPs charge) (5,440) (9,875) (11,150) (10,651) (11,695) (30,920) (75,760) 6 10 9
Pre-IND AS116 EBITDA (including ESOP charge) (3,260) (2,971) (6,936) (1,117) 1,630 76,888 281,156 NA 47 14
EBITDA margin (%) (9.0) (4.4) (9.6) (1.4) 1.7 13.4 14.9
Depreciation (pre Ind-AS116) 1,567 3,598 3,807 2,988 3,693 18,365 58,337
EBIT (excl. other income) (4,827) (6,570) (10,742) (4,106) (2,062) 58,523 222,819
EBIT growth (%) 25 13
EBIT margin (%) (13.3) (9.7) (14.9) (5.0) (2.1) 10.2 11.8
Operating tax 528 (14,982) (74,867)
Tax rate (%) 25.6 25.6 33.6
NOPLAT (4,827) (6,570) (10,742) (4,106) (1,534) 43,541 147,952
Growth (%)
Depreciation 1,567 3,598 3,807 2,988 3,693 18,365 58,337
ESOP charge 723 3,225 2,890 2,312 2,543 5,227 8,515
Change in working capital (395) (4,954) 664 2,085 (799) (8,853) (20,163)
Capital expenditure (2,509) (5,398) (5,940) (5,000) (4,463) (15,936) (52,267)
Free cash flow to the firm (5,441) (10,098) (9,321) (1,720) (561) 42,344 142,374
DCF parameters
WACC (%) 13.0
Terminal growth (%) 6.0
DCF valuation (March-2025E)

PV of terminal value 174,881
Sum of discounted DCF 232,387
Net cash 58,275
DCF-based equity valuation 465,542
Per share FV calculation (Dec-2023)

Current share count (mn) 725
Diluted share count assuming dilution from
existing pool of granted+ungranted options- 804
performance ESOPs (mn)
Fair value (Rs/share) 570
We expect revenue CAGR of 17% for Delhivery over FY2023-26E

Revenue profile of Delhivery, March fiscal year-ends, 2019-26E (Rs mn)
2019-23 2023-26E
2022 CAGR CAGR
2019 2020 2021 2022 proforma 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E (%) (%)
Express parcel 13,731 19,289 25,505 41,947 41,947 45,530 52,287 60,130 69,149 35 15
Part-truck load (PTL) Freight 1,402 2,307 3,842 13,901 17,061 11,570 15,272 18,693 22,881 69 26
Truck load (TL) Freight 0 3,659 2,141 2,848 2,848 4,372 5,465 6,776 8,334 na 24
Supply chain services 1,320 2,149 3,901 5,509 5,509 7,827 7,345 9,290 11,655 na 14
Cross border services 86 344 964 3,182 3,182 2,970 1,782 2,138 2,566 142 (5)
Total revenues from contract with customers 16,539 27,806 36,465 68,822 72,410 72,253 82,150 97,027 114,585 45 17
Key operating metrics
Revenues from express parcel (Rs/parcel) 92 86 88 72 72 69 68 68 68 (5) (0)
Revenues from Part-truck load (PTL) Freight (Rs/ ton) 11,529 9,476 10,276 10,925 10,805 10,509 10,509 10,719 10,933 2 1
Express parcels volumes (mn) 148 225 289 583 583 663 769 884 1,017 19 15
Part-truck load (PTL) Freight (000 Ton) 122 243 374 1,272 1,579 1,101 1,453 1,744 2,093 36 24
Notes:
(a) Spoton financials are consolidated within PTL financials from August 2021
(b) Proforma financials assume Spoton financials consolidated for full year in 2022
Delhivery
8
Condensed consolidated financials of Delhivery, March fiscal year-ends, 2019-26E (Rs mn)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

Profit model
Revenue from contract with customers 16,539 27,806 36,465 68,823 72,253 82,150 97,027 114,585
EBITDA (16,249) (1,719) (1,229) (4,720) (4,516) 1,423 4,662 7,942
Adjusted EBITDA (1,876) (2,529) (2,537) 254 (4,046) 1,195 4,174 7,150
Depreciation and amortisation expense (1,700) (2,557) (3,546) (6,107) (8,311) (7,213) (8,259) (9,068)
EBIT (17,949) (4,276) (4,776) (10,827) (12,828) (5,789) (3,598) (1,127)
Other income 410 2,081 1,918 1,561 3,049 4,498 4,574 4,713
Finance costs (438) (492) (886) (995) (888) (769) (923) (1,106)
Profit before tax (17,978) (2,688) (3,744) (10,261) (10,666) (2,060) 54 2,481
Taxation — (1) — 183 452.81 — — (635)
PAT (17,978) (2,689) (3,744) (10,077) (10,214) (2,060) 54 1,846
EPS (Rs/share) (30.2) (4.5) (7.0) (17.0) (14.1) (2.8) 0.1 2.4
Balance sheet
Share capital 10 10 16 642 729 739 749 760
Reserves and surplus 33,873 31,694 28,352 58,932 91,043 91,285 93,882 98,525
Shareholders funds 33,883 31,704 28,368 59,574 91,771 92,024 94,631 99,285
Total borrowings 936 2,568 3,013 3,531 1,989 1,989 2,144 2,144
Lease liabilities 3,170 4,978 8,156 7,484 7,246 6,666 8,266 10,167
Total sources of funds 37,989 39,251 39,537 71,218 101,318 100,678 105,041 111,596
Fixed assets (tangible/intangible) 1,741 2,473 2,519 9,785 9,658 11,670 12,440 13,587
Capital work-in-progress 9 315 768 599 235 215 215 215
Cash and bank balances 16,634 4,087 2,774 2,290 37,136 37,722 39,477 41,988
Goodwill 164 186 186 13,799 13,621 13,621 13,621 13,621
RoU assets 2,975 4,781 7,828 6,941 6,667 5,827 6,865 8,021
Investments 11,551 11,877 11,282 20,907 20,942 20,942 20,942 20,942
Net working capital (ex-cash) 4,318 14,481 12,948 15,346 10,903 8,818 9,618 11,358
Advance income tax assets 596 1,050 1,232 1,551 2,157 2,157 2,157 2,157
Total usage of funds 37,989 39,251 39,537 71,218 101,318 100,678 105,041 111,596
Cash flow
Operating cash flow before working capital changes (1,492) (1,891) (1,494) 2,681 (221) 1,195 4,174 7,150
Working capital changes (1,725) (5,295) (395) (4,954) 664 2,085 (799) (1,740)
Cash flow from operations (3,445) (7,638) (2,071) (2,405) (273) 3,280 3,374 4,774
Capital expenditure+acquistions (1,831) (2,172) (2,521) (19,264) (6,021) (5,000) (4,463) (5,267)
Free cash flow (5,276) (9,810) (4,592) (21,670) (6,294) (1,720) (1,089) (493)
Key ratios/metrics
Yoy revenue growth (%) 68.1 31.1 88.7 5.0 13.7 18.1 18.1
EBITDA margin (%) (98.2) (6.2) (3.4) (6.9) (6.3) 1.7 4.8 6.9
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) (11.3) (9.1) (7.0) 0.4 (5.6) 1.5 4.3 6.2
RoAE (%) (8.2) (13.8) (23.0) (13.5) (2.2) 0.1 1.9
RoACE (%) (27.2) (20.5) (30.1) (30.8) (14.3) (8.7) (1.9)
Delhivery
UPDATE
Adani Ports and SEZ (ADSEZ) BUY

Transportation
CMP(₹): 1,343 Fair Value(₹): 1,520 Sector View: Attractive NIFTY-50: 22,406 March 04, 2024
Gaining momentum; defying seasonality and Red Sea overhang Company data and valuation summary
ADSEZ’s monthly data suggests growth acceleration at a time when most Stock data
companies are suggesting impediments from the Red Sea issue. The same
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 1,343/1,520/BUY
reflects benefits of owning a diversified portfolio and improved logistics at
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 1,357-571
the Dhamra Port. We also see prospects of a faster increase in realization,
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 2,900/35.0
especially at the Mundra Port. We increase the FY2024-26 estimates by 4-5%
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 8,535/103.0
and FV by a higher 8% to Rs1,520, and assume higher medium-term growth.
Shareholding pattern (%)
Daily volumes in February up 30% yoy versus 26% growth in January
Adani Ports reported a healthy 33% yoy growth in February, boosted by 3% due
4.72.8
to an additional day. ADSEZ has grown volumes mom, despite having two days 8.4
3.5
less. All this happens at a time when most players in the ecosystem (GPPV,
Concor, Gateway Distriparks) are suggesting the growing impact of the Red Sea 14.7
65.9
issue on volumes. What appears to be benefiting ADSEZ is healthy growth in
most cargo classes and select ports in Dhamra reporting their best monthly
print ever in the truncated February. Dhamra seems benefit from a combination
of debottlenecking of logistics and uptick in instances of coastal shipping.
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Moving toward the 500 mn ton mark for FY2025 set four years in advance Absolute 6 53 96
ADSEZ is on track to end up closer to the 420 mn ton mark in FY2024 versus Rel. to Nifty 4 44 69
Rel. to MSCI India 3 41 60
the initial guidance of 350-370 mn tons. The same has been driven by an uptick
in industry growth (7.0-7.5% FYTD) and ADSEZ gaining majority share of growth Forecasts/Valuations 2024E 2025E 2026E
volumes. The same sets well for ADSEZ to aim close to the 500 mn ton mark EPS (Rs) 43.0 52.7 64.0
by FY2025. The target was set when ADSEZ was operating close to a quarterly EPS growth (%) 11.7 22.5 21.4
annualized run-rate of 250-270 mn tons amid the Covid pandemic. P/E (X) 31.2 25.5 21.0
P/B (X) 5.4 4.5 3.8
Volume growth may see impact of margin uptick as well, starting with Mundra
EV/EBITDA (X) 20.5 16.6 14.1
We note recent pricing moves in the container segment by Gujarat Pipavav that RoE (%) 18.7 19.4 19.8
make its aggregate moves over the past four years higher than that at Mundra. Div. yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.5
We expect Mundra to see a substantial increase in its container pricing in Sales (Rs bn) 269 325 361
1QFY25. We also note the second boost to pricing happening in 2027 when DP EBITDA (Rs bn) 161 197 223
Word commissions its capacity—high capital cost may imply high breakeven Net profits (Rs bn) 93 114 138
point. We also note other assets in the country changing hands at healthy
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
revenue share—something that can helps ADSEZ take price increases over time.
Prices in this report are based on the market close of
March 04, 2024
We increase estimates by 5% and revise FV to Rs1,520 (from Rs1,400)
We increase our port EBITDA/PAT by 4%/5% owing to equal effects of higher
volumes (Mundra, Dhamra) and EBITDA margin (Mundra). We increase our FV
by a higher 8% on higher growth assumptions for Kattupalli (on track to achieve
clearances for two more berths) and Dhamra (uptick in mining volumes), and
roll-forward. Our DCF-based FV implies ~16X two-year forward EV/EBITDA.
Full sector coverage on KINSITE
Aditya Mongia Deepak Krishnan Sai Siddhardha P

10
ADSEZ reports mom growth in February against seasonality and impact of Red Sea issue
Monthly volumes trend for Adani Ports
Quarterly volumes (LHS, mn tons) Yoy growth (RHS, %)

40.0 60.0
35.6 35.1 35.4
30.0 27.6 26.5 45.0
20.0 30.0
10.0 15.0
- 0.0
Jun-23
Nov-23
Sep-23
May-23
Dec-23
Apr-23
Oct-23
Jul-23
Feb-23
Feb-24
Jan-23
Aug-23
Jan-24
Mar-23
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Mundra increased container pricing at a CAGR of 6% in the past three years; GPPV raised pricing faster
Pricing trajectory for Mundra and peer ports on the western coast (%)
Mundra Hazira Nhava Sheva - GTI Pipavav

12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Nov-19
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-21
Dec-17
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-20
Jul-14
Oct-18
Jul-19
Jul-23
Feb-17
Feb-24
Mar-18
Mar-23
Jan-16
Jan-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Aug-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Change over four years

30
27
25
24
25
Jan-15 5
20 Jan-16 8
16 Jan-17 2
15 Jan-18 2
Jan-19 6
10 Jan-20 2
Jan-21 8
Jan-22 0
5
Jan-23 4
Jan-24 7
-
Mundra Hazira Nhava Sheva - GTI Pipavav
Source: CMA CGM, Kotak Institutional Equities
Adani Ports and SEZ

11
We increase our estimates for FY2026 by 4-5%

Exhibit 3: Estimates for Adani Ports and SEZ, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-25E (Rs bn)
New estimates Previous estimates % revision
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Volumes (mn tons)
Mundra volume 139 145 150 156 179 197 215 175 192 209 2 3 3
Dahej port 6 6 8 11 12 13 14 12 13 14 — — —
Hazira port 22 22 25 25 28 31 33 28 31 33 — — —
Mormugao port 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 — — —
Vizag port 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 — — —
Kandla port 6 6 4 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 — — —
Dhamra port 30 32 34 32 40 48 54 39 44 49 5 8 10
Ennore + Kattupalli 13 11 12 18 24 30 35 24 30 35 — — —
Existing assets 222 228 238 253 294 332 364 289 323 353 2 3 3
Krishnapatnam — 19 40 48 57 66 72 57 66 72 — — —
Vizhingam — — — — 2 3 3 2 3 3 — — —
Dighi 1 2 4 8 9 4 8 9 — — —
Gangavaram 30 33 39 45 50 39 45 50 — — —
Haifa Ports 3 14 16 17 14 16 17 — — —
Other new assets 3 13 24 25 13 24 25 — — —
Consolidated volumes 222 247 312 340 422 492 541 417 483 530 1 2 2
Consolidated financials
Revenues 118,731 125,496 159,340 208,519 269,162 324,805 360,678 265,885 319,055 353,244 1 2 2
Port revenues 96,140 107,390 138,540 179,440 206,518 245,311 274,009 203,023 239,180 266,088 2 3 3
EBITDA 75,654 79,835 97,510 128,335 161,463 197,060 223,216 159,202 191,969 216,475 1 3 3
Port EBITDA 65,930 75,600 97,180 120,420 147,096 177,179 199,515 144,645 171,690 192,256 2 3 4
Port EBITDA margin (%) 68.6 70.4 70.1 67.1 71.2 72.2 72.8 71.2 71.8 72.3 -2 bps 44 bps 56 bps
PBT 59,333 55,910 66,099 83,701 110,320 139,909 162,901 108,091 134,833 156,008 2 4 4
Recurring EPS (Rs) 25 20 27 38 42 52 63 42 50 60 2 3 5
Incremental volume gains will be driven by Krishnapatnam, Gangavaram, Mundra and Dhamra ports in FY2025
Exhibit 4: Volumes for Mundra and other related ports, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-25E (mn tons)
2014-23 2023-26
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E CAGR (%) CAGR (%)
Mundra port
Bulk 52 46 42 39 45 47 38 29 30 43 44 47
Coal 39 34 31 27 34 35 29 18 19 32 32 34
Other bulk 13 11 11 12 11 13 9 11 11 11 12 13
Crude / POL / Liquid 22 26 28 28 26 22 24 26 26 29 31 33
Container ('000 TEUs) 2,913 3,238 3,459 4,117 4,543 4,806 5,710 6,511 6,786 7,276 8,374 9,296
Container (mn tons) 41 44 51 60 66 70 83 95 99 106 122 136
Mundra volumes 115 116 120 127 137 139 145 150 156 179 197 215 4 11
Other port assets
Dahej port 12 8 6 7 9 6 6 8 11 12 13 14
Hazira port 7 12 15 17 20 22 22 25 25 28 31 33
Dhamra port 15 15 21 21 21 30 32 34 34 40 48 54
Existing assets 150 151 163 173 187 197 205 217 226 259 289 316 5 12
Mormugao port 1 2 2 1 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 4
Vizag port 1 1 1 - 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
Kandla port — 4 4 4 6 6 6 4 5 5 6 6
Ennore + Kattupalli port — — 5 7 10 13 11 12 18 24 30 35
Krishnapatanm — — — — — — 19 40 48 57 66 72
Vizhingam — — — — — — — — - 2 3 3
Dighi — — — — — — — 1 2 4 8 9
Gangavaram — — — — — — — 30 33 39 45 50
Haifa Port — — — — — — — — 3— 14 16 17
Others — — — — — — — 3— — 13 24 25
Total of key ports 152 158 176 185 208 222 247 312 340 422 492 541 11 17
Adani Ports and SEZ

12
We arrive at an SoTP-based Fair Value of Rs1,520/share for ADSEZ

Exhibit 5: One-year forward SoTP-based valuation of Adani Ports & SEZ
Entity EV (Rs mn) Net debt Implied equity value Stake (%) Equity Value of stake Value/share Method
Mundra Port (excl. SEZ) 737,856 (266,006) 1,003,862 100% 1,003,862 465 FCFF
SEZ 55,310 — 55,310 100% 55,310 26 FCFF
CT3 (incl. CT-3 extension) 178,762 44,699 134,063 50% 67,031 31 FCFF
CT5 187,831 33,101 154,730 50% 77,365 36 FCFF
Dahej 81,743 (8,363) 90,107 74% 66,679 31 FCFF
Dhamra 401,298 (12,054) 413,353 100% 413,353 191 FCFF
Hazira 269,163 (5,735) 274,898 100% 274,898 127 FCFF
Vizhinjam — — 2,463 100% 2,463 1 0.5X equity
Kandla 18,849 17,942 1,850 100% 1,850 1 0.5X equity
Murmugao 59 8,200 (8,141) 100% (8,141) (4) FCFF
Vizag (284) 6,348 64 100% 64 — 0.5X equity
Ennore 3,174 3,174 — 100% — — FCFF
Kattupalli 86,440 6,727 79,713 97% 77,322 36 FCFF
Krishnapatnam 370,373 23,137 347,236 100% 347,236 161 FCFF
Dighi 42,662 (2,517) 45,179 100% 45,179 21 FCFF
Gangavaram 396,912 16,293 380,618 90% 341,034 158 FCFF
Sarguja Rail 98,718 1,284 97,435 100% 97,435 45 13X EV/EBITDA
West container terminal (Sri Lanka) — — 116,078 51% 59,200 27 2X investment value
Adani Logistics 153,060 20,862 132,197 100% 132,197 61 15X EV/EBITDA
Ocean Sparkle — — 38,701 100% 38,701 18 FCFF
Haifa port acquisition — — 49,595 70% 34,716 16 FCFF
Others potential acquisition — — 127,308 100% 127,308 59 FCFF
Adani Harbour (marine revenues) 461,112 (73,695) 534,807 100% 534,807 248 14X EV/EBITDA
Less : standalone debt+L&A — 512,228 (512,228) 100% (512,228) (237)
Total 3,277,641 1,520
Adani Ports and SEZ

13
Exhibit 6: Consolidated financials of Adani Ports & SEZ, March fiscal year-ends, 2017-27E (Rs mn)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
Income statement
Net sales 84,394 113,230 109,254 118,731 125,496 159,340 208,519 269,162 324,805 360,678 398,579
Total operating costs (30,247) (42,608) (43,339) (43,077) (45,661) (61,830) (80,185) (107,699) (127,745) (137,462) (148,415)
EBITDA 54,147 70,621 65,916 75,654 79,835 97,510 128,335 161,463 197,060 223,216 250,165
Other income 10,401 10,109 13,623 18,614 19,702 21,548 15,535 16,171 15,553 17,153 20,598
Depreciation (11,602) (11,884) (13,735) (16,803) (21,074) (27,396) (34,232) (38,805) (43,880) (48,737) (54,209)
Financial charges (11,157) (14,954) (13,852) (18,131) (22,553) (25,563) (25,936) (28,509) (28,823) (28,731) (28,057)
Pre-tax profit 41,789 53,893 51,952 59,333 55,910 66,099 83,701 110,320 139,909 162,901 188,497
Taxation (2,866) (15,442) (10,815) (4,597) (12,433) (9,617) (964) (17,386) (26,061) (24,655) (36,532)
Adjusted PAT (before exceptional items) 38,922 38,451 41,138 54,737 43,477 56,481 82,737 92,934 113,849 138,246 151,964
Extraordinary items - (1,552) (690) (16,850) 7,152 (10,453) (29,287) (5,743) - - -
Minority interest 100 (163) (545) - (544) 1,260 (826) (1,147) (1,503) (1,821) (1,762)
Share of profit from associates 93 - (1) (44) (143) - 478 - - - -
Reported PAT post-minority interest 39,115 36,736 39,902 37,842 49,943 47,289 53,102 86,044 112,346 136,426 150,202
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 18.1 17.7 18.8 25.3 19.8 26.7 38.1 42.5 52.0 63.2 69.5
Balance sheet
Shareholders funds 175,260 210,688 245,382 256,235 306,283 382,500 455,836 535,568 638,647 760,415 891,815
Share capital 4,142 4,142 4,142 4,064 4,064 4,225 4,320 4,320 4,320 4,320 4,320
Reserves and surplus 171,118 206,546 241,240 252,171 302,219 378,275 451,516 531,248 634,327 756,095 887,494
Loan funds 214,860 214,322 271,879 294,627 351,809 454,531 498,193 477,971 488,759 486,327 471,250
Deferred tax liability (net) (17,759) (11,681) (8,124) (9,227) 3,214 12,130 9,865 9,865 9,865 9,865 9,865
Total sources of funds 373,754 414,824 511,237 543,832 675,991 853,088 977,279 1,040,950 1,156,320 1,277,476 1,395,561
Total fixed assets 264,023 306,832 338,051 377,954 518,341 607,968 771,788 805,605 869,512 882,001 877,133
Investments 26,114 10,789 7,793 3,520 22,362 59,611 161,807 161,807 161,807 161,807 161,807
Cash and bank balance 19,768 29,677 59,673 73,139 47,008 104,921 42,488 72,342 123,805 232,473 355,425
Net current assests excl cash 63,850 67,527 105,720 89,219 85,878 64,656 (3,002) (3,002) (3,002) (3,002) (3,002)
Total application of funds 373,754 414,824 511,237 543,831 675,991 853,088 977,279 1,040,950 1,156,320 1,277,476 1,395,561
Cash flows
Operating profit before working capital changes 60,122 73,144 71,042 72,605 80,202 99,751 136,218 155,720 197,060 223,216 250,165
Changes in working capital (12,870) (7,071) 317 9,909 4,084 6,735 (8,546) - - - -
Cash flow from operations 40,019 56,081 60,294 74,174 75,558 98,002 119,333 138,335 171,000 198,561 213,633
Capex (36,871) (26,978) (28,867) (35,584) (19,497) (35,815) (89,210) (72,622) (107,787) (61,226) (49,342)
Free cash flows 3,148 29,104 31,427 38,590 56,061 62,187 30,123 65,713 63,212 137,335 164,291
Growth (%)
Revenue growth 18.7 34.2 (3.5) 8.7 5.7 27.0 30.9 29.1 20.7 11.0 10.5
EBITDA growth 17.1 30.4 (6.7) 14.8 5.5 22.1 31.6 25.8 22.0 13.3 12.1
Recurring PAT growth 37.2 (1.2) 7.0 33.1 (20.6) 29.9 46.5 12.3 22.5 21.4 9.9
Key ratios
EBITDA margin (%) 64.2 62.4 60.3 63.7 63.6 61.2 61.5 60.0 60.7 61.9 62.8
Recurring PAT margin (%) 46.1 34.0 37.7 46.1 34.6 35.4 39.7 34.5 35.1 38.3 38.1
Effective tax rate (%) 6.9 28.7 20.8 7.7 22.2 14.5 1.2 15.8 18.6 15.1 19.4
Net debt to equity (X) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
Net debt to EBITDA (X) 3.6 2.6 3.2 2.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.5
BVPS (Rs) 85 102 118 126 151 181 211 248 296 352 413
RoE (%) 25.2 19.8 17.8 21.8 15.2 16.8 19.7 18.5 19.1 19.5 18.2
RoCE (%) 15.4 17.5 14.2 14.7 12.9 12.0 12.0 13.8 15.4 15.7 16.2
Adani Ports and SEZ

UPDATE
Eicher Motors (EIM) SELL

Automobiles & Components
CMP(₹): 3,751 Fair Value(₹): 3,100 Sector View: Cautious NIFTY-50: 22,406 March 04, 2024
Domestic volume growth to moderate Company data and valuation summary

We expect Royal Enfield’s domestic volumes to moderate in FY2025E due to Stock data
(1) demand saturation in richer states, where the company has >10% market
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 3,751/3,100/SELL
share, (2) increase in competitive intensity and (3) affordability issues. We
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 4,202-2,836
expect Royal Enfield’s market share to increase in export markets; however,
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 1,027/12.4
volume growth of the addressable export markets will remain muted in our
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 2,685/32.4
view given (1) high penetration levels and (2) less preference for motorcycles
in select markets. Retain SELL rating with a revised FV of Rs3,100. Shareholding pattern (%)
Muted demand trends in richer states weigh on RE’s domestic performance

4.1
Royal Enfield’s domestic volumes have remained flat over CY2018-23 mainly on 8.5
2.3
account of (1) muted demand trends in richer states and (2) sharp increase in 5.6
49.2
upfront costs due to regulatory requirement and commodity headwinds.
Volumes in key states such as Kerala, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Punjab, where 30.3
Royal Enfield has >10% market share, have declined by 2-13% CAGR over
CY2018-23, which has resulted in muted growth for the overall domestic
volumes. Underperformance of richer states can be partly attributed to
relatively higher penetration levels of >250cc motorcycles. Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (2) (10) 20
Category expansion benefit to be offset by increase in competitive intensity Rel. to Nifty (4) (19) (7)
We expect the overall premium domestic two-wheeler market to grow by high- Rel. to MSCI India (5) (22) (16)
single digit CAGR over the medium term, driven by (1) increase in replacement
demand mix, (2) premiumization trends and (3) increase in market size driven
EPS (Rs) 147.4 154.4 165.7
by newer product launches, partly offset by moderation in first buyer demand
EPS growth (%) 37.7 4.7 7.3
driven by continued underperformance of richer states as well as affordability.
P/E (X) 25.4 24.3 22.6
Also, we expect Royal Enfield’s domestic volumes to grow at a lower pace due
P/B (X) 6.7 5.7 5.0
to increase in competitive intensity in the middle-weight segment. We expect
EV/EBITDA (X) 20.9 18.7 16.9
the >250cc motorcycle segment’s domestic industry volumes to increase at a
RoE (%) 28.4 25.4 23.7
CAGR of 8% over FY2023-36E and bake in market share of Royal Enfield to Div. yield (%) 1.2 1.3 1.6
decline from >90% currently to 78% by FY2036E. The penetration (as % of Sales (Rs bn) 164 175 188
households) for >250cc motorcycles is expected to reach 4.6% in FY2036E as EBITDA (Rs bn) 43 47 51
compared to 2.8% penetration levels in the US currently. Net profits (Rs bn) 40 42 45
Fine-tune our FY2024-26 consolidated EPS estimates; maintain SELL rating Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
We have fine-tuned our FY2024-26 consolidated EPS estimates. We expect the Prices in this report are based on the market close of
March 04, 2024
>250cc domestic industry to grow by high single-digit CAGR over the medium
term, but Royal Enfield to underperform the industry growth owing to elevated
competitive intensity. We believe growth in the >250cc motorcycle segment will
be significantly lower over the next 10 years as compared to FY2010-19 period
given (1) higher penetration levels in richer states, which will continue to
underperform and (2) affordability issues. We expect Royal Enfield to gain
market share in the export segment; however, growth prospects in the
addressable export motorcycle segment remain limited. We expect current
profitability to sustain over the near term driven by (1) benign commodity prices
and (2) increase in the export mix. However, we expect domestic volume growth
to remain subdued over FY2024-26E. SELL stays with a revised FV of Rs3,100
(from Rs3,000 earlier). Full sector coverage on KINSITE
Rishi Vora Praveen Poreddy

15
RE volumes have remained flat in the domestic market over CY2018-23, driven by underperformance of
richer states
Royal Enfield state-wise volumes, calendar year-ends, 2018-23 (units, %, USD per population)
GDP per capita RE's market share in 2018-23

(USD) CY2023 (%) 2018 2023 CAGR (%)
Volumes (units)
Delhi 5,948 19.5 57,939 46,051 (4.5)
Telangana 4,174 11.3 32,583 34,590 1.2
Haryana 4,024 5.7 25,932 19,086 (5.9)
Karnataka 4,009 9.9 48,655 56,231 2.9
Kerala 3,834 28.0 87,438 42,523 (13.4)
Gujarat 3,828 4.8 32,966 31,714 (0.8)
Tamil Nadu 3,720 10.7 75,378 67,997 (2.0)
Maharashtra 3,374 8.5 67,291 77,386 2.8
Andhra Pradesh 2,998 8.5 28,285 29,673 1.0
Punjab 2,520 11.8 48,644 29,136 (9.7)
India 2,407 7.4 820,929 820,929 (0.4)
Rajasthan 2,117 3.2 27,363 25,728 (1.2)
Odisha 2,028 9.0 23,607 30,754 5.4
West Bengal 1,899 10.8 30,267 62,217 15.5
Madhya Pradesh 1,854 3.7 26,214 31,103 3.5
Uttar Pradesh 1,162 4.7 90,232 94,729 1.0
Bihar 750 4.6 35,863 41,881 3.2
Others 82,272 100,130 4.0
Volume mix (%)
Delhi 7.1 5.6
Telangana 4.0 4.2
Haryana 3.2 2.3
Karnataka 5.9 6.8
Kerala 10.7 5.2
Gujarat 4.0 3.9
Tamil Nadu 9.2 8.3
Maharashtra 8.2 9.4
Andhra Pradesh 3.4 3.6
Punjab 5.9 3.5
Rajasthan 3.3 3.1
Odisha 2.9 3.7
West Bengal 3.7 7.6
Madhya Pradesh 3.2 3.8
Uttar Pradesh 11.0 11.5
Bihar 4.4 5.1
Others 10.0 12.2
Total 100.0 100.0
Note:
(a) Market share for RE is calcualated based on total motorcycle sales in each state.
Source: Census of India, Statistics Ministry, SIAM, Kotak Institutional Equities
Eicher Motors
Automobiles & Components India Research
16
Retail volume growth has slowed down to 5% (average) since September for Royal Enfield
Retail volume trend for Royal Enfield, March fiscal year-ends, 2022-24 (‘000 units)
('000 units) Retail sales ('000 units) Yoy change [RHS] (%)
100 250
218 84
200
80 74 71
70 70 70
65 65 64 67 64
62 62 60 150
58 138 57 56 56
60 53 52
48 46 49 48
45 44 100
81
40 68
45 39 50
36 34 36 40 33 26 28
20 14 18 14 11 20
(3) (5) (1) 3 (1)-
(17) (17) (16)
0 (50)
Jun-23
Nov-23
Jun-22
Nov-22
Sep-23
Sep-22
May-23
May-22
Oct-23
Dec-23
Dec-22
Jul-23
Jul-22
Oct-22
Apr-22
Apr-23
Jan-24
Jan-22
Jan-23
Aug-23
Aug-22
Mar-22
Mar-23
Feb-24
Feb-22
Source: Vahaan, Kotak Institutional Equities Feb-23
Expect Royal Enfield to lose market share in domestic market

We expect the company to lose market share gradually led by (1) newer launces by the competition
at attractive price points, (2) ramp-up of production volumes and (3) rapid scale-up of distribution
network. Monthly volumes of Hero-Harley and Bajaj Triumph are witnessing a constant uptick and
we expect the trend to continue as the competition is ramping up production volumes and expanding
its distribution network. Bajaj Auto-Triumph is planning to expand to 100 cities from current 41 cities
by end of FY2024E whereas HMCL is planning to expand the Hero 2.0 store count to 400 (from
current store count of 300) by FY2024E and Premia stores count to 100 (from current store count of
3) by 1QFY25E. The company’s market share in >250cc motorcycle segment has already declined to
85% in January 2024 and we expect this to come down to 78% over the medium term.
Newer launches have resulted in uptick in >250cc motorcycle segment volumes in the recent months
Monthly >250cc motorcycle industry volume trends, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-24 (‘000 units)
100 94
90 85 85 86 83
81 79 79 82
76 76 77 78
80 75 73 73 74 74 72
70 71 72 70 70 70 71
67 68 69 67 66
70 66 64 66
62
57 58 59
60 55 57 54 51
51 49
50
40
30
20
10
-
Jun-23
Jun-18
Jun-22
Nov-18
Nov-21
Nov-22
Sep-23
Nov-23
Sep-18
Sep-22
May-18
May-23
Dec-18
Dec-21
May-22
Dec-22
Dec-23
Jul-18
Jul-22
Jul-23
Apr-18
Apr-22
Apr-23
Oct-22
Oct-23
Oct-18
Oct-21
Aug-18
Feb-21
Aug-22
Feb-23
Aug-23
Feb-18
Feb-22
Jan-18
Jan-24
Jan-19
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-18
Source: SIAM, Kotak Institutional Equities
Eicher Motors
17
Limited benefit to Royal Enfield owing to market share loss in >250cc motorcycle segment
RE monthly market share trends in >250cc motorcycle segment, March fiscal year-ends, 2022-24 (%)
98 96 96
96 95
94
94
94 93
92 92 92
91 91 91
92 91 91 91 90 91
90 90
90 88
88 88
88 87
86
86 85
84
82
80
78
Jun-22
Jun-23
Nov-22
Nov-23
Sep-22
Sep-23
Dec-22
Dec-23
May-22
May-23
Jul-23
Jul-22
Apr-22
Apr-23
Oct-23
Oct-22
Feb-22
Feb-23
Jan-24
Jan-22
Jan-23
Aug-22
Mar-23
Mar-22
Aug-23
We expect >250cc domestic motorcycle industry to grow by 8% CAGR over FY2023-36E

>250cc domestic industry sizing and volume projections for select OEMs, March fiscal year-ends, 2021-36E (units, %)
CAGR (%)
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2036E 2023-36E
>250 cc motorcycle industry volumes (units) 613,384 577,499 794,189 950,000 1,026,000 1,108,080 2,138,461 7.9%
RE domestic volumes (units) 573,438 521,236 734,840 831,400 854,960 897,186 1,667,630 6.5%
Others (units) 59,349 118,600 171,040 210,894 470,831
RE domestic market share (%) 93.5 90.3 92.5 87.5 83.3 81.0 78.0
>250 cc motorcycle population (units) 5,022,222 5,549,551 6,289,193 7,157,798 8,061,202 8,959,297 18,673,100 8.7%
India population (mn units) 1,341 1,355 1,369 1,383 1,397 1,368 1,473
Number of households (mn) 304 310 316 323 329 336 409
Penetration (% of population) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3
Penetration (% of households) 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 4.6
Motorycle penetration in USA
>250 cc motorcycle volumes in USA 265,703 312,780 293,741
>250 cc motorcycle population (units) 3,647,433 3,680,039 3,682,399
Population (mn) 335 336 337
Households (mn) 129 129 130
Penetration (% of population) 1.1 1.1 1.1
Penetration (% of households) 2.8 2.8 2.8
Source: Company, SIAM, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
2W OEMs are ramping up distribution network across the country for the premium motorcycles
Domestic dealership ramp-up plan by various 2W OEMs
Existing dealerships Expected

Type of store as on 3QFY24 ramp-up Time period
Dealership ramp-up plan
Bajaj Triumph Triumph exclusive store 41 cities 100 cities FY2024E
Hero 2.0 300 400 FY2024E
Hero MotoCorp
Hero Premia 3 100 1QFY25E
Classic Legends 423 750 FY2026E
Eicher Motors
18
Premiumization in premium motorcycle segment—trend unlikely to play out

Unlike premiumization trend in domestic passenger vehicle segment (shift from hatchbacks to SUVs),
we do not expect the same trend to pan out in >250cc motorcycle segment. Shift of consumers from
hatchback to SUV segment happened at a rapid pace led by (1) overlapping pricing points and (2) better
value proposition in terms of drivability, safety, durability, better ground clearance, etc. However, we
expect similar kind of shift from 250-350cc motorcycles segment to >500cc will be difficult to take place
as (1) lack of incremental drive experience for commuter purpose in the Indian roads replete with traffic,
potholes and narrow roads making the overall value proposition unattractive, (2) limited additional
opulent features for the premium paid and (3) limited market for leisure biking. Also, the company’s
recent launches are targeted toward >350cc segment (Himalayan 450 & Shotgun 650), which we believe
will have limited impact on volume growth of the company due to its niche positioning and lower
propensity of consumers shifting to >350cc segment from the 250-350cc. Despite lower base, 800-
1,000cc motorcycle segment has seen a CAGR of 4% over CY20218-23 whereas >1,000cc motorcycle
segment has been on a declining trend. The 500-800cc motorcycle segment has witnessed 47% CAGR
over CY2018-23 driven by newer launches by Royal Enfield; however, absolute volumes have not
materially picked up post 2019.
>350cc mix in overall 2W sales is hovering below 1%, whereas mix of SUV segment in PV sales improved by 26% in past 5 years
Comparison of volume growth between >350cc motorcycle segment and SUV segment, calendar year-ends, 2018-23
CAGR (%)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018-23
cc wise premium 2W volume break-up
250-350 cc 803,987 654,251 524,714 547,333 689,789 796,221 (0.2)
350-500cc 65,634 37,276 27,384 45,422 54,002 80,791 4.2
500-800cc 4,581 22,899 13,847 13,758 20,074 31,081 46.7
800-1000cc 1,178 2,453 779 1,198 1,143 1,430 4.0
1000-1600cc 1,169 1,010 726 802 940 645 (11.2)
>1600 cc 613 732 318 362 285 190 (20.9)
Total 877,162 718,621 567,768 608,875 766,233 910,358 0.7
Mix in overall 2W sales (%) 4.3 3.4 3.3 4.0 5.6 5.6
Segment wise break-up of SUV segment
Micro SUV (< 4m) — — 12,476 85,243 198,745 341,974
Compact SUV (< 4m) 353,904 357,257 399,011 527,338 615,585 618,849 11.8
Mid SUV (> 4m) 179,134 205,723 252,836 309,336 386,614 540,452 24.7
Large SUV 194,769 145,584 137,463 218,584 358,208 446,632 18.1
Premium SUV 31,241 23,577 20,123 27,620 29,048 40,204 5.2
SUV segment 759,048 732,140 821,908 1,168,121 1,588,200 1,988,111 21.2
Total PV sales 3,334,628 2,910,446 2,718,603 3,079,329 3,789,598 4,094,342 4.2
Mix in overall PV sales (%) 22.8 25.2 30.2 37.9 41.9 48.6
Eicher Motors
19
Pricing overlap between B+ hatchback segment and micro-SUV segment has resulted in consumer preferring SUV models
Pricing across B+ hatchback segment, micro-SUV and compact SUV segments
OEMs Model Base variant pricing Median variant pricing Top end variant pricing
B+ hatchback segment
Maruti Suzuki Swift 599,450 768,000 889,000
Maruti Suzuki Baleno 661,000 838,000 988,000
Hyundai Motors i20 704,400 938,000 1,120,900
Tata Motors Altroz 659,900 899,900 1,055,990
Toyota Glanza 681,000 873,000 999,900
Micro SUV segment
Tata Motors Punch 599,000 864,900 1,009,000
Maruti Suzuki Fronx 746,500 887,500 1,205,000
Hyundai Motors Exter 612,800 887,300 1,027,900
Compact SUV
Tata Motors Nexon 809,900 1,169,990 1,469,990
Maruti Suzuki Vitara Brezza 834,000 1,145,000 1,398,000
Hyundai Motors Venue 1,207,700 1,299,000 1,389,800
Kia Motors Sonet 799,000 1,199,000 1,549,900
Export addressable market growth prospects in the premium motorcycle segment remain muted
We expect Royal Enfield’s addressable export motorcycle market volumes to grow by 3-4% CAGR over
CY2023-35E. We believe the growth prospects for the company in export premium motorcycle segment
are limited owing to (1) higher penetration of premium motorcycles in developed markets, (2) lesser
preferences for motorcycles, especially in South East Asian markets, and (3) higher competition from
the reputed and well entrenched players. We expect the growth in the global premium motorcycle
segment to remain muted as observed historically in the developed economies such as US and Europe.
In the 601+cc segment, volumes in the US declined by 1% CAGR over CY2012-22, whereas Europe
volumes witnessed a moderate growth of 3% CAGR over the same period. Volumes of the Harley
Davidson across the geographies, except South East Asia, declined by 3-4% CAGR over 2012-22.
Motorcycle volumes in Australia and Japan declined by 0-1% CAGR over CY2011-23, whereas in LATAM
market the motorcycle volumes grew by modest 4% CAGR over CY2012-22 primarily driven by robust
growth in the economy motorcycle segment. We believe the premium motorcycle segment growth in
LATAM region will remain muted owing to high ethanol blending requirement of the governments, which
will impact the performance of the motorcycle and warrant higher investments from the OEMs to design
the engines, making it an unattractive proposition. Although we anticipate a high single-digit increase in
2W volumes in South East Asian markets, the growth in the premium motorcycle segment is likely to be
subdued, primarily attributed to a stronger inclination toward scooters.
Eicher Motors
20
601+cc motorcycle segment volumes declined by 1% CAGR over CY2012-22 in US

Retail registration trend for 601+cc motorcycle segment in US, calendar year-ends, 2012-22 (units,
%)
350,000
300,000 2012-22 CAGR - (1.2%)
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Harley Davidson, Kotak Institutional Equities
601+cc motorcycle segment volumes grew by a moderate 3% CAGR over CY2012-22 in Europe
Retail registration trend for 601+cc motorcycle segment in Europe, calendar year-ends, 2012-22
(units, %)
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Pierrer Mobility, Kotak Institutional Equities
Eicher Motors
21
Motorcycle volumes declined by 1% over CY2012-23 Motorcycle volumes in Japan remained flat over CY2012-23
Motorcycle sales trend in Australia, calendar year- Motorcycle sales trend in Japan, calendar year-
ends, 2012-23 (units, %) ends, 2012-23 (units, %)
100,000 500,000
90,000 2012-23 CAGR - (0.7%) 450,000 2012-23 CAGR - (0.0%)
80,000 400,000
70,000 350,000
60,000 300,000
50,000 250,000
40,000 200,000
30,000 150,000
20,000 100,000
10,000 50,000
- -
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2018
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: FACAI Australia, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Motorcycles data, Kotak Institutional Equities
HD expects new 601+cc segment motorcycles to grow by 2-3% CAGR over CY2021-30E
Global 601+cc motorcycles segment projections by Harley Davidson, calendar year-ends, 2012-
30E (units, %)
New motorycle volumes ('000 units) Used motorycle volumes ('000 units)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000 2,378
2,257
2,111
1,500 1,952 1,876
1,611 1,562
1,000
500
612 652 720 767 774
507 561
-
2012 2015 2018 2021 2024E 2027E 2030E
Source: Harley Davidson, Kotak Institutional Equities
Eicher Motors
22
Heavy motorcycle mix across majority of the geographies remain below 5% in the overall two-wheeler volumes in respective markets
Geography-wise two-wheeler segment mix, calendar year end, 2021 (%)
North America and Other South Asian Latin
China ASEAN Europe India markets America Africa
Segment mix of 2W in
various geographies
Scooter 80-85 70-75 25-30 30-35 25-30 0-1 0-1
Light motorcycle 0-5 5-10 10-15 55-60 65-70 70-75 90-95
Heavy motorcycle 0-5 0-5 50-60 4-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
Moped — 15-20 — 3-4 0-5 15-20 0-5
Notes:
(a) The e-bike market (maximum speed of <25 kmph) has been excluded for the analysis
(b) Motorcyles with >250 cc is considered as Heavy motorcycle
Source: McKinsey & Company, Motorcycles data, Kotak Institutional Equities
Newer launches and expansion in distribution network to aid market share gain for Royal Enfield
We estimate the total addressable export market for the company to be around 1.1 mn units in CY2023
and is expected to grow at 3-4% CAGR over CY2023-35E, whereas the RE export volumes are expected
to grow at 12% over CY2023-35E. Also, we expect the company to improve the export market share
gradually from the current high single digit to 20% led by (1) newer product launches, (2) expanding
dealer network and (3) strengthening global assembly capacities to ensure faster market reach.
However, the company will see higher competitive intensity owing to commencement of exports of
Triumph motorcycles by Bajaj Auto, which are available at similar price points, which needs to be
monitored. Royal Enfield volumes in the exports market declined by 25% in FYTD24 partly on account of
inventory correction, which is significantly higher than 9% decline in volumes for Harley Davidson and in
contrast to the 3% growth in volumes for BMW Motorrad in CY2023. CY2023 was a challenging year for
exports; however we expect addressable market volume growth to remain muted over the medium term.
We expect the RE export volumes to grow by 12% CAGR over CY2023-35E

>250cc motorcycle export addressable market size projections for RE, calendar year-ends, 2021-35E (units, %)
CAGR (%)
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2035E 2023-35E
>250 cc motorcycle segment market size in export addressable markets for Royal Enfield
Latin America 104,475 129,757 123,269 133,131 141,119 149,586 238,707 5.7
USA 312,780 293,741 264,367 277,585 283,137 288,800 345,142 2.2
Europe 479,030 451,359 406,223 430,596 439,208 447,992 514,703 2.0
Asia excluding China and India 292,488 267,263 253,900 269,134 285,282 302,399 447,122 4.8
>250 cc motorcycle market size 1,188,773 1,142,121 1,047,760 1,110,447 1,148,746 1,188,777 1,545,675 3.3
Royal Enfield export volumes 81,032 100,055 77,543 96,928 111,468 130,766 309,135 12.2
Royal Enfield market share 6.8 8.8 7.4 8.7 9.7 11.0 20.0
Source: Harley Davidson, McKinsey & Company, Motorcycles data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
Eicher Motors
23
We expect RE volumes to increase by 6-7% CAGR over FY2023-26E

Exhibit 16: Eicher Motors volume assumptions, March fiscal year-ends, 2017-26E (units)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Sales volumes (units)
Standalone
Two-wheelers 666,490 820,492 822,724 697,582 612,350 602,268 834,895 908,943 951,888 1,008,654
VECV
Domestic
5-7.5 ton 8,525 11,062 11,769 8,799 8,801 8,466 9,408 10,067 10,469 10,993
7.5-12 ton 22,395 27,005 31,535 21,041 20,166 29,879 38,681 40,615 42,240 44,352
>12 ton 6,216 7,315 7,695 4,146 3,878 5,338 9,341 9,808 10,200 10,710
Buses 12,270 10,494 10,734 9,060 2,333 3,715 14,925 17,910 20,597 23,686
Exports
Cargo 6,005 7,405 8,798 3,493 4,486 7,677 3,728 3,914 4,384 4,823
Buses 2,030 1,596 1,212 1,075 539 749 1,205 1,265 1,417 1,559
Volvo trucks
Volvo trucks domestic 1,164 1,055 1,266 1,107 1,065 1,253 1,863 2,087 2,253 2,434
Total 58,605 65,932 73,009 48,721 41,268 57,077 79,151 85,666 91,560 98,556
Yoy change (%)
Standalone
Two-wheelers 10.9 23.1 0.3 (15.2) (12.2) (1.6) 38.6 8.9 4.7 6.0
VECV
Domestic
5-7.5 ton 2.3 29.8 6.4 (25.2) 0.0 (3.8) 11.1 7.0 4.0 5.0
7.5-12 ton (17.0) 20.6 16.8 (33.3) (4.2) 48.2 29.5 5.0 4.0 5.0
>12 ton 9.4 17.7 5.2 (46.1) (6.5) 37.6 75.0 5.0 4.0 5.0
Buses (5.9) (14.5) 2.3 (15.6) (74.2) 59.2 301.7 20.0 15.0 15.0
Exports
Cargo 18.7 23.3 18.8 (60.3) 28.4 71.1 (51.4) 5.0 12.0 10.0
Buses (17.2) (21.4) (24.1) (11.3) (49.9) 39.0 60.9 5.0 12.0 10.0
Volvo trucks
Volvo trucks domestic (22.3) (9.4) 20.0 (12.6) (3.8) 17.7 48.7 12.0 8.0 8.0
Total (7.0) 12.5 10.7 (33.3) (15.3) 38.3 38.7 8.2 6.9 7.6
We value Eicher Motors at Rs3,100 based on SoTP methodology

Exhibit 17: Sum-of-the-parts valuation table for Eicher Motors (Rs mn)
Valuation Comments
Standalone
Equity value per share 2,801 Based on DCF methodology
Eicher stake in VECV
Equity value per share 554 15X March 2026E EPS
Eicher stake in VECV (%) 54.4
Eicher equity value in VECV 301 Value of proportionate stake
KIE fair value 3,100
Eicher Motors
24
We value Eicher Motors standalone business at Rs2,801 per share

Exhibit 18: Eicher Motors business DCF valuation, March fiscal year-ends, 2019-36E (Rs mn)
CAGR (%)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2036E 2023-36E
Domestic volumes (units) 801,899 658,286 573,728 521,236 734,840 831,400 854,960 1,667,630 6.5
Export volumes (units) 20,825 39,296 38,622 81,032 100,055 77,543 96,928 309,135 9.1
Total volumes (units) 822,724 697,582 612,350 602,268 834,895 908,943 951,888 1,976,765 6.9
Domestic ASPs 106,840 116,527 130,590 135,341 141,437 142,797 176,075 2.0
Export ASPs 211,472 219,305 213,743 207,886 207,886 212,043 276,829 2.2
Other operating revenue 12,895 11,878 17,590 24,168 30,516 32,067 82,700 9.9
Net revenue 97,945 91,536 87,204 102,978 144,422 164,227 174,706 461,905 9.4
EBIT 26,028 17,988 13,300 17,203 29,174 37,335 40,268 97,000 9.7
EBIT (1-tax) 15,243 12,723 9,895 12,799 21,705 27,777 29,959 72,168 9.7
Depreciation/amortisation 3,003 3,815 4,507 4,519 5,262 5,787 6,819 19,022
(Increase)/decrease in working capital (4,524) 1,165 3,077 (886) 93 (1,560) (874) 933
Capital expenditure (7,842) (5,413) (5,041) (6,271) (6,474) (10,000) (8,000) (15,046) 6.7
Free cash flows 5,879 12,290 12,439 10,161 20,586 22,004 27,904 77,077 10.7
Discounted cash flow 27,904 22,158
WACC used (%) 12.0

Terminal growth rate (%) 4.5
Capitalization rate (%) 7.5
Cash flow in terminal year 22,158
Sum of free cash flow 302,659
Terminal value 308,730
Enterprise value- RE 611,389
Net cash 151,126
Net present value-equity 762,515
NPV /share(Rs) 2,801
Eicher Motors
25
We estimate two-wheeler volumes to increase by 6.5% CAGR over FY2023-26E

Exhibit 19: Eicher Motors model-wise volumes and revenues, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-26E (Rs mn)
2023-26E
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E CAGR (%)
RE volumes modelwise (in units)
Bullet 350 156,709 166,243 176,348 148,587 113,401 144,559 162,000 165,240 173,502 6.3
Classic 350 555,513 523,068 399,728 361,430 267,604 314,982 316,000 325,000 341,250 2.7
Thunderbird 350 45,927 71,327 40,185 — — — — — —
Bullet 500 6,644 2,737 786 — — — — — —
Classic 500 27,509 19,282 4,925 — — — — — —
Thunderbird 500 2,966 3,373 824 — — — — — —
Himalayan/Scram 5,656 10,701 15,302 13,562 36,194 37,108 48,000 50,000 50,000 10.5
Continental GT 650/Interceptor 305 5,168 20,188 10,256 15,305 17,329 14,000 15,400 16,170 (2.3)
Meteor 350 — — — 39,893 88,732 94,637 88,000 85,000 89,250 (1.9)
Super Meteor 650 — — — — — 2,293 15,000 16,500 17,325 96.2
Hunter 350 — — — — — 123,932 188,400 197,820 209,689 19.2
Exports 19,264 20,825 39,296 38,622 81,032 100,055 77,543 96,928 111,468 3.7
Total volumes 820,493 822,724 697,582 612,350 602,268 834,895 908,943 951,888 1,008,654 6.5
Two-wheeler revenues modelwise (in Rs mn)
Bullet 350 13,698 14,463 16,224 14,413 11,770 15,979 20,056 20,661 21,911 11.1
Classic 350 56,668 55,295 43,364 42,735 33,856 42,839 44,052 45,759 48,528 4.2
Thunderbird 350 4,999 7,763 4,615 — — — — — —
Bullet 500 791 326 99 — — — — — —
Classic 500 3,711 2,723 730 — — — — — —
Thunderbird 500 403 457 118 — — — — — —
Himalayan/Scram 695 1,314 1,978 1,835 5,142 5,588 7,951 8,282 8,406 14.6
Continental GT 650/Interceptor 43 789 3,203 1,689 2,722 3,236 2,667 2,963 3,157 (0.8)
Meteor 350 — — — 6,183 14,579 16,326 15,789 15,479 16,497 0.3
Super Meteor 650 — — — — — 614 4,018 4,486 4,781 98.2
Hunter 350 — — — — — 14,872 23,060 24,455 26,311 20.9
Exports 2,135 3,790 8,310 8,470 17,320 20,800 16,120 20,553 24,109 5.0
Total two-wheeler revenues 83,142 86,920 78,641 75,325 85,388 120,254 133,711 142,639 153,701 8.5
Eicher Motors
26
We estimate standalone earnings to grow at 16% CAGR over FY2023-26E

Exhibit 20: Eicher Motors standalone financial summary, March fiscal year-ends, 2017-26E (Rs mn)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Profit model (Rs mn)
Net sales 70,380 89,575 97,945 90,775 86,190 101,229 140,666 159,227 170,706 184,013
EBITDA 22,058 28,532 29,443 22,038 17,865 21,136 33,935 43,472 47,236 50,965
Other income 2,273 3,324 5,080 6,153 4,520 4,543 6,398 11,149 10,020 11,370
Interest (28) (30) (30) (109) (92) (103) (130) (100) (100) (100)
Depreciaton (1,533) (2,223) (2,989) (3,779) (4,460) (4,455) (5,121) (5,437) (6,469) (7,229)
Profit before tax 22,770 29,603 31,504 24,303 17,833 21,121 35,083 49,084 50,688 55,006
Current tax (6,785) (9,354) (9,419) (5,488) (4,926) (5,210) (8,086) (12,105) (12,754) (13,842)
Deferred tax (384) — (1,366) 223 390 (48) (772) — — —
Net profit 15,601 17,129 20,543 19,038 13,297 15,862 26,226 36,980 37,934 41,164
Adjusted net profit 15,601 17,129 20,543 19,038 13,297 15,862 26,226 36,980 37,934 41,164
Adjusted diluted EPS (Rs) 57.3 74.4 76.1 69.9 48.9 58.3 96.3 135.9 139.4 151.2
Balance sheet (Rs mn)
Equity 272 273 273 273 273 273 274 274 274 274
Reserves and Surplus 38,954 53,450 70,992 82,480 96,777 107,672 128,596 153,248 177,495 202,249
Deferred tax liability 792 1,430 2,765 2,520 2,211 2,229 3,034 3,034 3,034 3,034
Total borrowings — — — — — 60 988 988 988 988
Current liabilities 15,201 22,795 20,745 20,696 26,988 31,994 35,864 37,132 38,414 40,037
Total liabilities 55,218 77,947 94,774 105,970 126,249 142,228 168,755 194,676 220,204 246,581
Net fixed assets 13,484 18,305 23,206 24,968 27,335 29,048 30,688 35,251 36,782 37,553
Investments 35,417 49,855 52,848 68,330 77,810 86,219 110,479 120,479 135,479 153,479
Cash 128 893 7,018 190 627 266 276 8,805 15,646 20,759
Other current assets 6,190 8,894 11,703 12,483 20,477 26,695 27,313 30,140 32,296 34,790
Miscellaneous expenditure — — — — — — — — — —
Total assets 55,218 77,947 94,774 105,970 126,249 142,228 168,755 194,676 220,204 246,581
Free cash flow (Rs mn)
Operating cash flow excl. working capital 15,757 20,534 20,606 16,016 13,666 16,586 27,978 31,367 34,483 37,123
Working capital changes 1,862 4,620 (4,524) 1,165 3,077 (886) 93 (1,560) (874) (870)
Net finance income (164) (2,240) 1,751 2,777 3,010 2,340 1,636 10,971 9,843 11,193
Cash flow from operations 17,454 22,914 17,833 19,958 19,753 18,040 29,707 40,779 43,451 47,445
Capital expenditure (5,448) (7,435) (7,842) (5,413) (5,041) (6,271) (6,474) (10,000) (8,000) (8,000)
Free cash flow 12,007 15,479 9,991 14,545 14,712 11,769 23,233 30,779 35,451 39,445
Ratios
Gross margin (%) 47.3 48.6 48.3 45.1 40.8 41.1 42.2 45.7 45.9 45.7
EBITDA margin (%) 31.3 31.9 30.1 24.3 20.7 20.9 24.1 27.3 27.7 27.7
Net debt/equity (X) (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.9) (0.8) (0.8) (0.9)
RoAE (%) 48.9 42.6 32.1 23.9 14.4 15.1 21.7 25.6 22.5 21.3
RoACE (%) 382.1 572.1 152.2 100.5 53.7 58.2 112.8 113.6 110.4 111.8
CRoCI (%) 324.9 219.6 105.7 61.3 40.0 40.3 58.7 59.5 56.1 53.5
Gross profit per vehicle (Rs) 49,984 53,016 57,512 58,655 57,429 69,089 71,113 80,027 82,280 83,440
EBITDA per vehicle (Rs) 33,096 34,775 35,787 31,592 29,175 35,093 40,646 47,827 49,624 50,527
We estimate consolidated earnings to grow at 16% CAGR over FY2023-26E

Exhibit 21: Eicher Motors consolidated income statement, March fiscal year-ends, 2017-26E (Rs mn)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Profit model (Rs mn)
Net sales 70,334 89,650 97,971 91,536 87,204 102,978 144,422 164,227 174,706 188,013
EBITDA 21,740 28,076 29,031 21,804 17,808 21,723 34,436 43,122 47,086 50,765
Other income 2,273 2,801 4,434 5,433 4,532 4,408 5,951 10,149 9,020 10,370
Interest (36) (53) (73) (189) (165) (188) (280) (500) (500) (500)
Depreciaton (1,538) (2,233) (3,003) (3,815) (4,507) (4,519) (5,262) (5,787) (6,819) (7,579)
Profit before tax 22,439 28,591 30,389 23,232 17,668 21,424 34,845 46,984 48,788 53,056
Tax (7,203) (9,359) (10,770) (5,275) (4,515) (5,259) (8,857) (11,905) (12,554) (13,642)
Minority Interest — — — — — — — — — —
Share of profit/(loss) of joint ventures 1,435 2,566 2,584 317 311 602 3,152 5,040 5,790 5,684
Adjusted net profit 16,671 21,137 22,150 18,274 13,464 16,766 29,139 40,120 42,024 45,099
Adjusted diluted EPS (Rs) 61.4 77.8 81.6 67.3 49.6 61.7 107.3 147.7 154.7 166.0
Eicher Motors
UPDATE
Signature Global (SIGNATUR) SELL

Real Estate
CMP(₹): 1,424 Fair Value(₹): 1,175 Sector View: Attractive NIFTY-50: 22,406 March 04, 2024
Strong sales momentum continues in Gurugram Company data and valuation summary
Signature Global has announced pre-sales of Rs36 bn from its recently Stock data
launched premium residential project, Deluxe-DXP at Sector 37D, Gurugram.
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 1,424/1,175/SELL
The sales are strong in the context of pre-sales of Rs31 bn for 9MFY24 and
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 1,438-444
full-year guidance of Rs45 bn for FY2024E, which now stands behind us. In
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 200/2.4
our view, the performance reflects the strength of the underlying demand in
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 497/6.0
Gurugram, as has also been seen for other players, leading to front-loading
of pre-sales estimates and cash generation in our earnings for Signature Shareholding pattern (%)
Global. Maintain SELL, with a revised FV of Rs1,175/share.
Launch of Deluxe-DXP leads to pre-sales of Rs36 bn 16.7
Signature Global has announced pre-sales of Rs36 bn from a recent launch of 3.6
0.0
2.0
its premium residential project Deluxe-DXP at Sector 37D, Gurugram. Deluxe- 8.1
DXP is spread over 16.5 acres, with a development potential of 2.7 mn sq. ft 69.6
and comprises 1,008 apartments of 3.0/3.5/4.5 BHK configuration spread

across 8 towers. The project also includes 0.1 mn sq. ft of high-street shopping
complex. Sector 37D in Gurugram is strategically positioned along NH8 and will
serve as a vital connection between Delhi and Jaipur. Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute 20 78 0
Signature Global was highlighting the launch of the project in recent investor Rel. to Nifty 17 70 0
interactions, stating that it received EOIs of 5.4X the units on offer. The Rel. to MSCI India 16 66 0
performance is strong in the context of Rs31 bn of pre-sales for 9MFY24 and
company’s own guidance of Rs45 bn for FY2024E (as stated in 3QFY24) , and
EPS (Rs) 12.8 38.3 56.7
Rs34 bn in FY2023. This announcement takes the pre-sales for FY2024E to
EPS growth (%) 349.9 200.0 47.8
~Rs70 bn. We also note that the premium nature of this product (~Rs13,300
P/E (X) 111.4 37.1 25.1
per sq. ft) will further help improve realizations and margins for the company.
P/B (X) 24.1 14.6 9.2
Favorable transition to higher price products EV/EBITDA (X) 86.6 29.4 17.8
RoE (%) 40.9 49.0 45.1
Signature Global is making a favorable transition to higher price point products ,
Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
compared with its historical offerings that were dominated by affordable
Sales (Rs bn) 20 40 55
projects. The transition in sales-mix is also reflected in blended realizations that
EBITDA (Rs bn) 2 7 11
have improved to Rs9,732/sq. ft in 9MFY24, compared with Rs7,886/sq. ft in
Net profits (Rs bn) 2 5 8
FY2023 and Rs4,744/sq. ft in FY2022. The shift in product mix will also aid the
margin profile for Signature, with embedded margin of 32% in 9MFY24. We note Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
that the income statement reflects weaker margins due to historical projects in Prices in this report are based on the market close of
March 04, 2024
the affordable segment, coupled with the expanded base of operations.
Strong sales performance prompts upward revision in operational numbers

Strong pre-sales for Signature Global reflect a trend we have seen across the
peer set, with latest offerings from DLF and GPL receiving a similar response.
We do acknowledge elements of investor-driven demand, although quantifying
the same is hard. However, the strong performance prompts us to re-calibrate
the pre-sales for FY2024E to Rs70 bn (from Rs45 bn) and for FY2025E to Rs79
bn (from Rs60 bn). In addition to the front-loading of sales, we also align pricing
and margins for Signature Global. However, the strong price performance (78%
over the past three months) already captures the key positives. Accordingly, we
maintain SELL, with a revised FV of Rs1,175/share (from Rs1,080/share). Full sector coverage on KINSITE
Murtuza Arsiwalla Abhishek Khanna

28
Signature Global has launched a new project, Deluxe-DXP at Sector 37-D, Gurugram
Focus areas for Signature Global
The company recorded Rs31 bn of pre-sales for 9MFY24

Pre-sales for Signature Global, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-3QFY24 (Rs mn, mn sq. ft)
Pre-sales (Rs mn) Pre-sales (mn sq. ft)

30,000 6.0
25,900
25,000 5.5 5.0
20,000 4.0
16,903
4.3
15,000 12,627 3.0
12,208
9,417 9,816
10,000 8,568 8,798 2.0
4,400 4,113
5,000 1.4 1.0
1.3 1.3
1.1 1.1 1.0
0.9
- 0.6 -
2020 2021 2022 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24
Signature Global
Real Estate India Research
29
32% embedded EBITDA margin on 9MFY24 pre-sales

Pro forma P&L on current pre-sales for Signature Global, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn, %)
9MFY24
Rs mn %
Pre sales 31,241
Embedded EBITDA 9,997 32
Less D&A 222
Less finance cost* 1,581
PBT 8,194 26
Tax rate (assumed rate 25.2%) 2,065
PAT 6,129 20
Gradual improvement in realization for Signature

Pre-sales, realization and collections for Signature Global, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-3QFY24 (Rs mn, mn sq. ft)
% chg. in 3QFY24
2020 2021 2022 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 yoy qoq
Pre-sales (Rs mn) 4,400 16,903 25,900 4,113 9,417 8,568 12,208 8,798 9,816 12,627 47 29
Pre-sales (mn sq. ft) 1.1 4.3 5.5 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.3 17 34
Realization (Rs/ sq. ft) 4,074 3,977 4,744 7,344 7,474 7,650 8,658 9,563 10,016 9,639 26 (4)
Collections (Rs mn) 5,167 7,791 12,821 3,471 4,578 5,271 5,881 6,039 7,236 7,691 46 6
Net debt increased in 3QFY24 owing to new land purchase

Net debt for Signature Global, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-3QFY24 (Rs mn)
Net debt (Rs mn)

12,000
10,939
10,000
8,436
8,000
6,000 5,573
5,173
3,624
4,000
2,000
-
2021 2022 2023 Sep-23 Dec-23
Signature Global
30
We revise our pre-sales and cash collection estimates upward

Key assumptions for Signature Global, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-26E (Rs mn)
CAGR (%
Metric 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Sales value 4,400 16,903 25,900 34,306 70,065 78,740 87,942
Sales volume (mn sq. ft) 1.1 4.3 5.5 4.4 6.5 7.0 7.4
Sales price (Rs/ sq. ft) 4,074 3,977 4,744 7,886 10,779 11,318 11,884
Collections 5,167 7,791 12,821 19,200 33,030 41,912 56,992
Delivery (mn sq. ft) 0.7 0.2 3.1 2.3 3.0 6.0 8.3
Operating revenue 2,416 821 9,013 15,536 20,121 39,996 54,913
EBITDA (223) (807) (694) 657 2,385 7,150 11,134
EBITDA margin (9) (98) (8) 4 12 18 20
Operating cashflow 2,192 2,489 4,701 6,912 16,524 10,357 21,062
Net debt 5,070 5,573 5,173 10,939 6,527 9,854 (1,511)
SoTP-based FV of Rs1,175/share
SoTP for Signature Global, March fiscal year-ends, 2026E (Rs mn)
Value Inventory
(Rs mn) (Rs/share) (%) (mn sq. ft) (Rs/sq. ft) (Rs mn) Receivable Cost GCF
Ongoing projects 6,084 43 3 — NA — 32,199 16,874 15,325
Forthcoming projects 68,276 486 39 18.4 12,065 221,637 84,433 165,273 140,798
Future developments 100,632 716 58
Enterprise Value 174,993 1,245 100
Net debt 9,854 70
Equity value 165,139 1,175
We marginally tweak our earnings estimates

Estimate changes for Signature Global, March fiscal year-ends, 2024-26E (Rs mn)
New estimates Old estimates Change (%)
2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Revenue 20,121 39,996 54,913 19,636 39,027 53,201 2 2 3
EBITDA 2,385 7,150 11,134 2,270 6,917 10,706 5 3 4
PAT 1,796 5,389 7,963 1,703 5,053 7,537 5 7 6
Signature Global
31
Improvement in EBITDA margin, going forward

Financial summary for Signature Global, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-26E (Rs mn)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Profit model
Revenue 2,416 821 9,013 15,536 20,121 39,996 54,913
EBITDA (223) (807) (694) 657 2,385 7,150 11,134
Depreciation and amortization expense (46) (118) (207) (222) (243) (274) (308)
EBIT (269) (925) (902) 435 2,142 6,876 10,826
Other income 215 237 383 323 336 406 659
Finance costs (548) (709) (691) (729) (233) (546) (1,531)
Pre-tax profits (602) (1,398) (1,210) 29 2,245 6,736 9,954
Tax expenses 175 112 209 (70) (449) (1,347) (1,991)
Profit after tax (428) (1,286) (1,001) (41) 1,796 5,389 7,963
Extraordinary items (143) 423 (154) (597) — — —
Profit after tax (after extraordinary items) (570) (862) (1,155) (637) 1,796 5,389 7,963
Share of profit from associates 5 (0) — — — — —
Profit after tax (566) (863) (1,155) (637) 1,796 5,389 7,963
EPS (Rs/share) (5.1) (7.6) (10.2) (5.4) 12.8 38.3 56.7
Balance sheet
Total equity (931) (2,069) (3,522) 475 8,301 13,690 21,653
Minority interests 113 110 59 26 26 26 26
Borrowings 9,694 11,764 11,575 17,097 14,642 23,037 23,037
Non-current liabilities 1,057 1,219 1,381 275 275 275 275
Current liabilities 19,372 26,599 34,815 42,117 59,496 61,193 62,317
Total liabilities and equity 29,305 37,624 44,309 59,991 82,741 98,222 107,309
Net fixed assets 703 1,031 1,681 1,358 1,396 1,439 1,484
Other non-current assets and advances 2,645 2,484 2,281 1,979 3,314 5,575 7,197
Inventory 20,768 27,702 33,921 44,058 60,339 65,046 59,105
Other current assets 5,188 6,407 6,426 12,596 17,692 26,162 39,523
Total assets 29,305 37,624 44,309 59,991 82,741 98,222 107,309
Cash flow
Operating cash flow before WC changes (160) (766) (553) 808 4,910 9,877 13,606
WC changes 1,144 1,058 2,637 (3,427) (2,937) (8,173) 4,447
Cash taxes paid (258) 72 (32) (163) (449) (1,347) (1,991)
Capital expenditure (148) (528) (894) (189) (282) (317) (354)
Free cash flow 577 (164) 1,159 (2,971) 1,242 41 15,708
Ratios
Net debt 5,070 5,573 5,173 10,939 6,527 9,854 (1,511)
Net debt/equity (X) (6) (3) (1) 22 1 1 (0)
Net debt/ OCF (X) 7 15 3 (4) 4 28 (0)
RoE (%) NM NM NM NM 41 49 45
RoCE (%) (2) (9) (8) (5) 8 18 21
Book value per share (Rs) (8) (18) (31) 4 59 97 154
Signature Global
32
Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 4-Mar-24 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E Traded Delivered
Automobiles & Components
Apollo Tyres SELL 535 375 (30) 340 4.1 638 29 27 28 18 20 19 2.4 2.2 2.0 8 8 8 14 12 11 0.9 1.1 1.3 17 6
Ashok Leyland REDUCE 172 170 (1) 505 6.1 2,936 9 10 9 19 18 18 4.9 4.2 3.7 11 11 11 28 25 21 2.1 2.2 2.2 37 19
Bajaj Auto SELL 8,207 5,000 (39) 2,324 28 283 261 272 297 31 30 28 8.6 8.2 7.7 24 23 21 28 28 29 2.5 2.7 2.9 47 22
Balkrishna Industries SELL 2,238 1,950 (13) 433 5.2 193 66 76 89 34 29 25 5.1 4.5 4.0 19 17 14 16 16 17 0.8 0.9 1.0 10 5
Bharat Forge SELL 1,189 850 (29) 554 6.7 466 22 33 39 55 36 30 7.4 6.4 5.5 23 19 17 14 19 20 0.5 0.6 0.6 16 7
CEAT SELL 2,894 1,670 (42) 117 1.4 40 173 158 139 17 18 21 3.0 2.6 2.4 8 8 8 19 15 12 1.5 1.3 1.2 9 4
CIE Automotive SELL 453 450 (1) 172 2.1 378 21 24 27 21 19 17 2.9 2.6 2.3 12 11 10 14 14 15 1.1 1.3 1.5 3 2
Eicher Motors SELL 3,751 3,100 (17) 1,027 12.4 272 147 154 166 25 24 23 6.7 5.7 5.0 21 19 17 28 25 24 1.2 1.3 1.6 32 16
Endurance Technologies SELL 1,830 1,500 (18) 257 3.1 141 45 56 66 40 33 28 5.2 4.7 4.1 20 17 14 13 14 15 0.5 0.7 0.8 5 2
Escorts Kubota SELL 2,919 2,150 (26) 323 3.9 111 94 104 112 31 28 26 3.5 3.1 2.8 27 24 21 11 11 11 0.5 0.5 0.6 12 5
Exide Industries SELL 329 250 (24) 279 3.4 850 12 14 16 27 23 21 2.3 2.1 2.0 15 13 11 9 10 10 0.8 0.8 0.8 13 5
Hero Motocorp SELL 4,612 3,675 (20) 922 11.1 200 213 233 249 22 20 18 5.2 4.8 4.4 15 13 12 25 25 25 3.2 3.5 3.8 40 18
Mahindra & Mahindra ADD 1,921 1,800 (6) 2,389 28.8 1,159 89 85 93 22 23 21 4.3 3.7 3.2 18 16 14 22 17 17 0.7 0.7 0.7 58 34
Maruti Suzuki SELL 11,594 8,900 (23) 3,645 44.0 314 405 399 428 29 29 27 5.4 4.8 4.4 20 19 17 20 17 17 1.4 1.4 1.5 79 48
MRF SELL 146,146 90,000 (38) 620 7.5 4 5,234 4,846 5,004 28 30 29 3.7 3.3 3.0 13 14 13 14 12 11 0.3 0.3 0.3 20 6
Samvardhana Motherson ADD 120 125 5 810 9.8 6,776 3 5 6 35 23 20 3.4 3.0 2.6 11 9 8 10 14 14 0.6 0.7 0.7 25 13
Schaeffler India SELL 2,871 2,770 (4) 449 5.4 156 58 65 75 50 44 39 9.3 8.4 7.5 33 29 25 20 20 20 0.1 0.1 0.0 3 2
SKF SELL 4,582 4,150 (9) 227 2.7 49 107 132 146 43 35 31 8.4 7.3 6.3 31 25 22 20 21 20 0.7 0.8 0.9 2 1
Sona BLW Precision REDUCE 673 550 (18) 395 4.8 583 9 12 14 75 57 47 14.6 12.2 10.2 43 34 29 21 23 24 0.3 0.4 0.5 15 8
Tata Motors ADD 987 950 (4) 3,781 45.6 3,829 64 71 78 15 14 13 5.6 3.9 3.0 7 6 5 44 32 27 0.2 0.2 0.3 113 46
Timken SELL 2,700 2,600 (4) 203 2.5 75 47 61 77 57 45 35 8.5 7.2 6.1 38 30 24 16 18 19 0.1 0.1 0.0 3 2
TVS Motor SELL 2,233 1,180 (47) 1,061 12.8 475 44 47 53 51 48 42 14.1 11.7 9.8 31 28 25 31 27 25 0.5 0.5 0.6 23 12
Uno Minda SELL 642 625 (3) 368 4.4 571 15 17 19 44 39 34 7.5 6.4 5.4 25 22 19 17 16 16 0.3 0.4 0.4 5 3
Varroc Engineering SELL 517 460 (11) 79 1.0 153 37 25 32 14 21 16 4.2 3.5 2.9 12 9 7 30 17 18 — — — 3 1
Automobiles & Components Cautious 21,423 258.5 25.0 23.8 21.7 5.4 4.6 4.0 13.7 12.4 11.2 21 19.4 18.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 597 287
Banks
AU Small Finance Bank SELL 580 615 6 388 4.7 667 23 36 41 25 16 14 3.2 2.6 2.2 — — — 13 18 16 — — — 26 11
Axis Bank BUY 1,107 1,225 11 3,415 41.2 3,077 78 82 94 14 13 12 2.4 2.1 1.8 — — — 18 16 16 1.1 1.1 1.3 130 70
Bandhan Bank BUY 199 270 36 321 3.9 1,611 21 25 29 10 8 7 1.5 1.3 1.1 — — — 16 17 17 1.6 1.9 2.2 40 17
Bank of Baroda ADD 273 280 2 1,413 17.1 5,178 33 30 31 8 9 9 1.4 1.3 1.1 — — — 16 13 12 2.5 2.2 2.3 67 25
Canara Bank REDUCE 592 530 (10) 1,074 13.0 1,814 81 78 86 7 8 7 1.5 1.3 1.1 — — — 18 16 15 2.8 2.7 3.0 57 20
City Union Bank ADD 140 155 11 104 1.2 740 13 14 16 10 10 9 1.4 1.2 1.1 — — — 13 12 12 1.9 2.0 2.3 9 4
DCB Bank BUY 130 160 23 41 0.5 312 18 20 25 7 7 5 0.9 0.8 0.7 — — — 12 12 13 1.4 1.9 2.8 8 4
Equitas Small Finance Bank ADD 101 115 14 115 1.4 1,131 8 9 11 13 11 9 2.0 1.8 1.5 — — — 15 16 18 — — — 7 3
Federal Bank BUY 154 175 14 374 4.5 2,419 15 15 18 10 10 9 1.3 1.2 1.1 — — — 14 12 13 1.9 2.0 2.3 28 13
HDFC Bank BUY 1,433 1,750 22 10,882 131.3 7,580 84 93 106 17 15 13 2.6 2.3 2.0 — — — 18 16 16 1.3 1.4 1.6 439 272
ICICI Bank BUY 1,092 1,220 12 7,667 92.5 6,984 57 56 60 19 20 18 3.4 3.0 2.7 — — — 18 16 15 1.0 1.0 1.1 203 108
IndusInd Bank BUY 1,531 1,800 18 1,192 14.4 776 109 124 142 14 12 11 2.0 1.7 1.6 — — — 15 15 15 1.0 1.2 1.4 62 30
Karur Vysya Bank BUY 187 195 4 149 1.8 802 18 20 22 10 9 8 1.6 1.4 1.3 — — — 16 16 16 2.5 2.8 3.1 8 4
Punjab National Bank SELL 126 105 (17) 1,388 16.8 11,011 7 12 13 18 11 10 1.5 1.3 1.2 — — — 8 12 12 1.6 2.7 3.0 99 28
SBI Cards and Payment Services BUY 717 900 26 682 8.2 946 25 30 44 29 24 16 5.7 4.7 3.7 — — — 22 21 26 0.4 0.5 0.6 18 10
State Bank of India BUY 772 850 10 6,890 83.2 8,925 61 63 69 13 12 11 2.1 1.8 1.6 — — — 15 14 14 1.5 1.5 1.5 169 69
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank ADD 53 65 24 103 1.2 1,929 6 7 7 8 8 7 1.7 1.5 1.3 — — — 24 20 18 2.4 2.5 2.7 8 4
Union Bank ADD 149 155 4 1,136 13.7 7,634 19 23 24 8 7 6 1.3 1.1 1.0 — — — 17 17 15 3.1 3.7 3.9 48 21
YES Bank SELL 25 19 (23) 713 8.6 31,315 0 1 1 80 28 17 1.8 1.7 1.6 — — — 2 6 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 144 43
Banks Attractive 38,046 459.2 14.6 13.5 12.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 14.5 13.9 13.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1,568 757
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates
India Research
33

Building Products
Astral SELL 2,097 1,600 (24) 563 6.8 269 21 28 33 100 75 63 17.6 14.7 12.2 59 46 40 19.2 21 21 0.1 0.2 0.2 16 8
Building Products Cautious 563 6.8 99.5 74.5 62.9 17.6 14.7 12.2 58.7 46.3 39.9 17.7 19.7 19.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 16 8
Capital goods
ABB REDUCE 5,632 4,600 (18) 1,193 14.4 212 59 72 84 96 78 67 20.1 16.2 13.3 77 62 53 23 23 22 0.0 0.1 0.1 26 11
Bharat Electronics SELL 210 130 (38) 1,532 18.5 7,310 5 5 6 44 40 35 9.9 9.0 8.0 32 28 24 24 24 24 1.1 1.2 1.3 54 27
BHEL SELL 265 70 (74) 921 11.1 3,482 (1) (2) 1 NM NM 199 3.4 3.5 3.5 NM 2,091 59 NM NM 2 0.0 0.1 (0.1) 96 31
Carborundum Universal REDUCE 1,072 1,140 6 204 2.5 190 25 31 39 43 34 27 6.4 5.5 4.8 28 23 18 16 17 19 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 2
CG Power & Industrial SELL 469 360 (23) 716 8.6 1,527 6 7 8 83 66 56 24.2 19.2 15.4 60 48 40 29 29 28 (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) 14 9
Cochin Shipyard SELL 881 540 (39) 232 2.8 263 27 24 30 32 37 29 4.7 4.4 4.0 23 24 18 15 12 14 0.8 0.9 0.9 47 13
Cummins India BUY 2,783 2,750 (1) 771 9.3 277 56 66 77 49 42 36 12.9 11.6 10.3 46 39 33 28 29 30 1.1 1.3 1.5 18 9
Dixon Technologies SELL 7,163 4,600 (36) 428 5.2 59 72 107 137 99 67 52 24.8 18.1 13.4 56 40 31 29 31 30 0.0 0.0 0.0 39 12
G R Infraprojects SELL 1,238 920 (26) 120 1.4 97 65 58 89 19 21 14 2.0 1.9 1.6 12 13 9 11 9 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
IRB Infrastructure SELL 63 60 (4) 378 4.6 6,039 1 2 2 50 30 25 2.9 2.9 2.8 15 13 12 6 10 11 2.5 3.2 3.7 26 11
Kalpataru Projects ADD 1,000 910 (9) 162 2.0 160 35 59 77 28 17 13 3.1 2.6 2.2 11 8 7 11 17 18 0.3 0.4 0.5 4 2
KEC International REDUCE 730 630 (14) 188 2.3 257 17 34 45 43 22 16 4.5 3.8 3.2 16 11 9 11 19 21 0.3 0.5 0.7 4 2
L&T SELL 3,644 3,100 (15) 5,010 60.5 1,373 95 122 147 38 30 25 7.1 6.2 5.4 25 20 17 18 22 23 0.8 1.0 1.2 101 61
Siemens SELL 4,689 3,950 (16) 1,670 20.2 356 65 79 94 72 59 50 11.3 9.9 8.6 56 46 39 17 18 19 0.4 0.4 0.5 16 7
Thermax ADD 3,662 3,500 (4) 436 5.3 113 53 60 75 69 61 49 9.5 8.5 7.5 55 45 33 15 15 16 0.3 0.4 0.4 5 2
Capital goods Cautious 13,963 168.5 52.1 41.9 33.6 7.6 6.8 6.1 32.4 26.5 21.9 14.5 16.3 18.0 0.6 0.7 0.9 455 200
Commercial & Professional Services
SIS REDUCE 449 500 11 65 0.8 147 20 26 31 22 17 14 2.5 2.2 1.9 12 10 9 12 13 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0
TeamLease Services REDUCE 2,888 2,500 (13) 48 0.6 17 69 93 119 42 31 24 5.9 4.9 4.1 36 26 21 14.2 17.3 18.5 — — — 2 1
Commercial & Professional Services Neutral 113 1.4 27.2 21.1 17.1 3.3 2.8 2.4 16.2 13.2 10.9 12.0 13.5 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Commodity Chemicals
Asian Paints REDUCE 2,832 3,100 9 2,716 32.8 959 58 60 62 49 47 45 14.5 12.7 11.3 34 33 31 32 29 26 1.1 1.1 1.2 47 28
Berger Paints SELL 579 485 (16) 675 8.1 1166 10 11 12 56 53 50 13.0 11.4 10.1 35 34 32 25 23 21 0.8 0.8 0.8 9 4
Indigo Paints REDUCE 1,386 1,400 1 66 0.8 48 33 37 40 42 37 35 7.3 6.4 5.7 26 23 21 19 18 17 0.5 0.6 0.9 2 1
Kansai Nerolac REDUCE 289 290 0 234 2.8 808 9 9 9 33 32 31 4.6 4.3 4.0 21 21 20 14 14 14 1.2 1.5 1.6 2 1
Tata Chemicals SELL 1,003 780 (22) 256 3.1 255 45 32 36 22 31 28 1.2 1.2 1.2 8 9 9 6 4 4 1.6 1.2 1.3 16 6
Commodity Chemicals Cautious 3,946 47.6 44.8 45.0 43.0 7.8 7.2 6.7 27.6 27.4 26.0 17.5 16.0 15.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 76 40
Construction Materials
ACC REDUCE 2,696 2,220 (18) 506 6.1 188 100 117 136 27 23 20 3.2 2.9 2.6 15 13 10 13 13 14 0.7 0.9 1.0 19 7
Ambuja Cements SELL 617 400 (35) 1,225 14.8 2,463 14 18 20 45 34 31 3.1 2.9 2.6 15 12 10 8 9 9 0.3 0.4 0.5 31 13
Dalmia Bharat ADD 2,027 2,320 14 380 4.6 187 47 84 111 43 24 18 2.3 2.1 2.0 13 10 8 6 9 11 0.3 0.6 0.8 11 6
Grasim Industries REDUCE 2,234 2,135 - 1,493 18.0 658 115 127 134 19 18 17 1.7 1.6 1.5 10 8 7 9 9 9 0.5 0.6 0.6 22 12
J K Cement SELL 4,464 2,850 (36) 345 4.2 77 112 133 153 40 34 29 6.3 5.4 4.7 17 15 14 17 17 17 0.3 0.3 0.3 8 4
Nuvoco Vistas Corp ADD 336 380 13 120 1.4 357 5 11 15 63 30 22 1.3 1.3 1.2 9 8 8 2 4 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
Orient Cement REDUCE 230 240 4 47 0.6 205 10 14 16 23 17 15 2.7 2.4 2.1 10 8 6 12 15 15 0.9 0.9 0.9 3 2
Shree Cement SELL 25,730 19,700 (23) 928 11.2 36 693 792 864 37 32 30 4.6 4.1 3.7 19 17 15 13 13 13 0.5 0.5 0.6 10 4
The Ramco Cements SELL 848 665 (22) 200 2.4 236 20 28 37 42 31 23 2.7 2.5 2.3 15 13 11 7 9 11 0.2 0.3 0.4 6 3
UltraTech Cement SELL 9,978 7,150 (28) 2,881 34.8 289 261 341 377 38 29 26 4.8 4.2 3.7 22 18 15 13 15 15 0.4 0.5 0.3 43 25
Construction Materials Cautious 8,126 98.1 31.8 25.7 22.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 14.5 12.2 10.7 9.4 10.6 10.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 155 76
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Consumer Durables & Apparel
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail REDUCE 230 220 (4) 218 2.6 998 (7) (5) (3) NM NM NM 5.7 4.8 5.2 17 12 10 NM NM NM — — — 15 6
Campus Activewear ADD 245 275 12 75 0.9 304 3 4 6 97 58 44 11.8 9.8 8.3 38 27 22 13 19 20 — — 0.6 5 2
Crompton Greaves Consumer ADD 299 320 7 192 2.3 636 7 9 11 44 34 28 6.4 5.6 4.8 27 22 19 15 18 19 0.8 0.8 0.8 10 6
Eureka Forbes BUY 455 680 49 88 1.1 208 5 7 10 94 67 44 2.3 2.2 2.1 47 36 25 2 3 5 — — — 3 3
Havells India SELL 1,554 1,130 (27) 974 11.8 628 19 24 29 83 65 54 13.5 12.2 10.9 55 44 37 17 20 21 0.5 0.6 0.7 16 9
Page Industries SELL 35,469 33,000 (7) 396 4.8 11 552 661 768 64 54 46 23.7 19.6 16.5 41 35 30 40 40 39 0.8 1.0 1.2 13 6
Polycab SELL 4,792 4,060 (15) 720 8.7 150 115 125 144 42 38 33 9.1 7.8 6.7 29 26 22 24 22 22 0.6 0.6 0.7 69 29
TCNS Clothing Co. REDUCE 388 420 8 25 0.3 69 (30) (5) 2 NM NM 228 6.0 6.0 5.4 (29) 20 14.3 NM NM 2 — — — 1 0
Vedant Fashions REDUCE 1,011 1,150 14 246 3.0 248 17 21 25 59 48 41 15.2 12.6 10.3 36 29 24 28 28 28 — — — 5 3
Voltas SELL 1,111 930 (16) 368 4.4 331 12 24 30 96 46 37 6.5 5.9 5.3 71 34 29 7 13 15 0.4 0.7 0.8 24 12
Whirlpool SELL 1,243 1,090 (12) 158 1.9 127 18 25 36 70 50 35 4.3 4.0 3.7 35 26 18 6 8 11 0.3 0.3 0.4 12 7
Consumer Durables & Apparel Cautious 3,633 43.8 80.0 56.9 45.1 8.8 7.8 7.0 37.4 28.3 23.5 11.0 13.6 15.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 178 86
Consumer Staples
Britannia Industries ADD 4,839 5,225 8 1,166 14.1 241 89 101 113 54 48 43 29.5 26.2 23.3 37 33 30 57 58 57 1.7 1.9 2.1 20 11
Colgate-Palmolive (India) REDUCE 2,577 2,425 (6) 701 8.5 272 49 54 59 53 48 44 38.3 36.2 34.2 37 33 30 75 77 80 1.8 2.0 2.2 9 5
Dabur India ADD 537 600 12 952 11.5 1,772 11 12 14 49 43 38 9.6 8.6 7.7 38 34 30 21 21 21 1.0 1.1 1.3 14 9
Godrej Consumer Products BUY 1,253 1,375 10 1,282 15.5 1,023 19 24 27 66 53 46 8.4 7.7 7.1 43 37 32 13 15 16 0.6 0.8 1.0 20 13
Hindustan Unilever ADD 2,422 2,725 13 5,691 68.7 2,350 43 49 55 56 50 44 11.1 10.7 10.3 39 35 31 20 22 24 1.6 1.8 2.0 53 36
ITC ADD 409 460 12 5,106 61.6 12,428 16 18 19 25 23 22 7.2 6.9 6.6 19 18 16 28 29 31 3.5 3.7 4.0 80 49
Jyothy Labs SELL 434 420 (3) 159 1.9 367 10 11 13 42 38 34 9.0 8.0 7.2 32 29 26 23 22 22 1.0 1.3 1.4 7 3
Marico REDUCE 524 545 4 678 8.2 1,290 12 12 14 45 42 38 15.0 12.8 11.0 33 30 27 36 33 31 1.1 1.2 1.4 10 6
Nestle India ADD 2,589 2,550 (2) 2,496 30.1 964 31 36 41 83 72 64 80.7 55.2 41.4 56 49 43 108 91 74 0.7 0.8 1.0 29 17
Sula Vineyards ADD 565 640 13 48 0.6 84 11 13 15 51 45 38 7.9 7.0 6.2 27 24 21 16 17 17 0.5 0.6 0.8 13 6
Tata Consumer Products NR 1,203 - - 1,146 13.8 929 15 18 20 82 68 59 6.7 6.4 6.1 50 43 38 8 10 11 0.8 0.8 0.9 23 12
United Breweries ADD 1,713 1,875 9 453 5.5 264 18 30 38 96 58 46 10.7 9.7 8.9 57 36 29 12 18 20 0.8 1.3 1.6 5 2
United Spirits ADD 1,166 1,160 (0) 848 10.2 727 16 19 22 74 60 54 11.9 10.9 10.0 48 40 36 17 19 19 0.2 0.9 1.0 13 7
Varun Beverages ADD 1,434 1,400 (2) 1,863 22.5 1,299 16 21 26 91 70 55 26.9 20.1 15.2 53 40 32 34 33 32 0.2 0.2 0.2 36 22
Consumer Staples Attractive 22,590 272.6 47.0 42.0 37.6 11.4 10.6 9.9 34.2 29.9 26.6 24 25 26 1.6 1.8 2.0 332 197
Diversified Financials
360 One BUY 727 750 3 261 3.1 355 21 24 30 35 30 25 7.6 7.1 6.6 — — — 23 24 28 2.1 2.5 3.1 6 4
Aavas Financiers BUY 1,432 2,025 41 113 1.4 79 64 78 95 23 18 15 3.0 2.6 2.2 — — — 14 15 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 4
ABSL AMC REDUCE 521 500 (4) 150 1.8 288 25 27 28 21 19 18 5.3 4.8 4.4 — — — NM NM NM 2.9 3.1 3.2 1 1
Aptus Value Housing Finance ADD 342 370 8 170 2.1 498 12 14 17 28 24 20 4.5 3.8 3.2 — — — 17 17 17 1.2 0.0 0.0 4 2
Bajaj Finance ADD 6,602 7,800 18 4,080 49.2 617 232 301 374 28 22 18 5.4 4.4 3.6 — — — 22 22 23 0.4 0.6 0.7 109 59
Bajaj Finserv ADD 1,619 1,800 11 2,584 31.2 1,593 68 84 101 24 19 16 4.8 4.0 3.4 — — — 22 23 23 0.1 0.1 0.1 26 13
Cholamandalam ADD 1,076 1,350 26 903 10.9 839 39 50 61 28 21 18 4.9 4.1 3.2 — — — 19 20 20 0.2 0.3 0.4 27 16
Computer Age Management Services ADD 3,044 3,000 (1) 150 1.8 49 70 82 97 44 37 31 16.4 14.1 12.1 — — — 40 41 41 1.5 1.7 2.1 19 11
CRISIL SELL 5,014 3,700 (26) 367 4.4 73 90 99 111 56 51 45 18.3 16.3 14.6 — — — 35 34 34 1.2 1.3 1.4 3 1
Five Star Business Finance ADD 684 875 28 200 2.4 291 28 35 42 24 20 16 3.9 3.2 2.7 — — — 17 18 18 — — — 7 4
HDFC AMC ADD 3,857 3,650 (5) 823 9.9 214 87 101 113 45 38 34 12.3 11.4 10.5 — — — 29 31 32 1.7 2.0 2.2 22 10
Home First Finance BUY 894 1,200 34 79 1.0 88 34 40 50 26 22 18 3.8 3.3 2.8 — — — 15 16 17 — — 0.6 3 2
ICRA REDUCE 5,758 5,150 (11) 56 0.7 10 151 175 199 38 33 29 5.2 4.9 4.6 — — — 14 15 16 — — 0 0 0
Kfin Technologies ADD 674 580 (14) 115 1.4 169 14 16 19 48 42 36 10.7 8.8 7.6 — — — 17 18 19 — 0.7 1 11 6
L&T Finance Holdings SELL 174 120 (31) 434 5.2 2,480 10 11 13 18 15 13 1.9 1.8 1.7 — — — 11 12 13 3.3 3.2 3.8 12 5
LIC Housing Finance BUY 658 725 10 362 4.4 550 86 84 82 8 8 8 1.4 1.2 1.1 — — — 16 14 12 2.1 2.1 2.0 18 8
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial ADD 288 300 4 355 4.3 1,234 15 19 24 20 15 12 2.0 1.9 1.7 — — — 10 12 14 1.0 1.3 1.7 15 7
Muthoot Finance ADD 1,338 1,500 12 537 6.5 401 99 116 135 14 12 10 2.2 1.9 1.7 — — — 18 18 18 1.5 1.7 2.0 7 3
Nippon AMC ADD 514 550 7 323 3.9 623 16 18 19 32 29 27 8.9 8.6 8.8 — — — 28 30 33 2.8 3.1 3.4 7 4
SBFC REDUCE 90 80 (11) 96 1.2 1,091 2 3 4 42 31 24 3.9 3.5 3.0 — — — 10 11 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
Shriram Finance BUY 2,447 2,500 2 919 11.1 376 189 229 270 13 11 9 1.9 1.7 1.5 — — — 15 16 17 1.2 1.4 1.7 39 24
UTI AMC REDUCE 897 900 0 114 1.4 127 55 42 45 16 21 20 2.8 2.8 2.7 — — — 18 13 14 4.9 3.8 4.1 3 1
Diversified Financials Attractive 13,258 160.0 23.0 19.1 16.0 3.9 3.4 2.9 16.9 17.7 18.1 0.8 0.9 1.1 348 185
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Electric Utilities
CESC SELL 130 115 (11) 172 2.1 1,326 10 12 13 12 11 10 1.2 1.2 1.1 7 6 6 11 12 12 3.5 3.3 3.6 19 8
JSW Energy SELL 517 235 (55) 850 10.3 1,640 10 15 19 54 34 27 4.3 3.8 3.4 20 14 13 8 12 13 0.4 0.4 0.4 24 10
NHPC SELL 89 60 (33) 895 10.8 10,045 4 5 6 22 18 15 2.3 2.2 2.0 24 12 9 11 13 14 2.4 3.0 3.5 138 49
NTPC SELL 354 270 (24) 3,431 41.4 9,895 20 22 24 18.1 15.8 15 2.1 2.0 1.8 11 10 9 12 13 13 2.0 2.2 2.4 68 37
Power Grid SELL 295 240 (19) 2,740 33.1 9,301 18 18 19 16.4 16.0 15 3.0 2.8 2.6 9 9 8 19 18 18 3.6 3.7 3.9 71 42
Tata Power SELL 392 240 (39) 1,252 15.1 3,196 11 10 13 37 39 29 3.9 3.5 3.2 15 15 13 11 9 11 — — — 97 33
Electric Utilities Attractive 9,341 112.7 20.1 18.1 16.3 2.6 2.4 2.2 11.7 10.3 9.4 13.0 13.3 13.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 417 179
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Bayer Cropscience SELL 5,554 5,190 (7) 250 3.0 45 181 204 226 31 27 25 8.8 8.4 8.0 21 19 17 29 32 33 2.8 3.1 3.5 2 1
Godrej Agrovet ADD 520 600 15 100 1.2 192 18 23 30 30 22 17 3.4 3.1 2.7 18 14 10 12 14 17 1.4 1.9 2.4 1.6 0.8
Rallis India SELL 262 220 (16) 51 0.6 195 8 11 12 32 25 21 2.8 2.6 2.4 16 14 12 9 11 12 1.3 1.5 1.7 4 2
UPL SELL 474 390 (18) 356 4.3 751 (18) 8 28 NM 57 17 1.4 1.4 1.3 13 8 6 NM 2 8 1.1 1.1 1.1 22 11
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Cautious 756 9.1 NM 34.5 19.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 15.2 10.1 8.0 NM 6.5 10.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 29 14
Gas Utilities
GAIL (India) SELL 191 150 (21) 1,255 15.1 6,575 14 14 15 13 13 13 2.1 1.9 1.8 11 10 10 16 15 14 3.9 4.2 4.5 57 24
GSPL BUY 372 465 25 210 2.5 564 23 18 19 16 20 19 2.1 2.0 1.9 9 11 10 13 10 10 2.2 2.4 2.5 8 4
Indraprastha Gas SELL 447 375 (16) 313 3.8 700 29 28 29 15 16 16 3.8 3.4 3.1 12 12 11 27 22 21 2.2 2.4 2.5 12 6
Mahanagar Gas SELL 1,542 1,050 (32) 152 1.8 99 131 93 90 12 17 17 3.0 2.7 2.5 8 10 10 28 17 15 2.8 2.1 2.1 9 4
Petronet LNG SELL 291 190 (35) 437 5.3 1,500 24 21 22 12 14 13 2.5 2.2 1.9 7 8 9 22 17 15 3.4 1.7 0.9 24 12
Gas Utilities Cautious 2,367 28.6 13.4 14.3 14.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 9.7 9.9 9.7 17.5 15.1 14.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 110 50
Health Care Services
Apollo Hospitals ADD 6,033 6,860 14 867 10.5 144 64 95 133 94 64 45 12.4 10.6 8.8 37 28 22 14 18 21 0.1 0.2 0.3 34 17
Aster DM Healthcare ADD 462 480 4 231 2.8 498 7 13 17 62 35 27 4.9 4.4 3.8 13 11 9 8 13 15 — — — 4 2
Dr Lal Pathlabs SELL 2,275 1,975 (13) 190 2.3 83 43 50 57 53 46 40 10.3 9.3 8.4 30 26 22 20 22 22 1.0 1.2 1.3 7 3
Global Health REDUCE 1,257 1,160 (8) 337 4.1 268 18 22 28 69 57 45 11.9 10.1 8.5 39 32 26 18 19 20 0.2 0.3 0.3 9 5
KIMS ADD 2,163 2,275 5 173 2.1 80 41 54 68 53 40 32 8.7 7.1 5.8 28 22 18 18 19 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Max Healthcare REDUCE 747 705 (6) 726 8.8 971 13 16 20 56 47 37 7.7 6.7 5.8 38 31 25 15 15 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 26 17
Metropolis Healthcare REDUCE 1,674 1,500 (10) 86 1.0 51 27 40 49 63 41 34 8.0 7.1 6.2 30 22 19 13 18 19 0.5 0.7 0.9 8 3
Narayana Hrudayalaya REDUCE 1,308 1,365 4 267 3.2 204 41 43 51 32 30 26 9.0 6.9 5.5 22 19 16 33 26 24 — — — 6 4
Rainbow Children's Medicare REDUCE 1,199 1,215 1 122 1.5 102 21 26 30 57 45 40 9.8 8.4 7.1 29 23 20 19 20 19 0.3 0.4 0.4 4 2
Health Care Services Cautious 3,000 36.2 60.6 47.2 37.1 9.1 7.8 6.6 29.6 24.1 19.5 15.0 16.5 17.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 100 54
Hotels & Restaurants
Chalet Hotels ADD 813 790 (3) 167 2.0 205 14 19 30 58 42 27 9.1 7.5 5.9 31 23 17 17 19 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 2
Devyani International ADD 153 190 25 184 2.2 1,204 1 1 2 130 108 79 16.5 15.4 14.0 28 20 16 14 15 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 4
Indian Hotels ADD 588 535 (9) 837 10.1 1,420 10 14 17 61 41 34 9.0 7.4 6.1 36 25 21 16 20 20 0.1 0.1 0.1 21 10
Jubilant Foodworks REDUCE 464 485 5 306 3.7 660 4 6 8 131 80 59 14.0 12.3 10.5 28 22 19 11 16 19 0.3 0.3 0.4 18 10
Lemon Tree Hotels REDUCE 143 122 (15) 113 1.4 792 2 5 6 58 29 24 12.3 9.9 7.9 24 14 12 22 37 36 0.9 1.2 1.4 12 5
Restaurant Brands Asia REDUCE 109 110 1 54 0.7 495 (1) (1) (0) NM NM NM 2.9 3.0 3.0 22 17 13 NM NM NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 3
Samhi Hotels BUY 220 250 14 48 0.6 218 (8) 5 9 NM 46 25 4.8 4.3 3.8 24 15 13 NM 10 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 4
Sapphire Foods BUY 1,505 1,640 9 96 1.2 64 7 7 11 223 211 138 7.4 7.1 6.8 21 17 15 3 3 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 3
Westlife Foodworld REDUCE 736 760 3 115 1.4 156 5 6 9 145 125 82 18.2 16.3 14.1 30 27 22 13 14 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
Hotels & Restaurants Attractive 1,920 23.2 91.0 53.6 41.1 9.6 8.3 7.0 29.8 21.6 17.7 10.5 15.4 17.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 77 37
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Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance BUY 610 800 31 1,313 15.8 2,020 8 9 10 80 67 59 9.6 9.0 8.4 — — — 12 14 15 0.3 0.4 0.4 33 19
ICICI Lombard REDUCE 1,650 1,400 (15) 813 9.8 491 39 48 57 42 34 29 6.8 6.0 5.2 — — — 17 19 19 0.6 0.7 0.9 16 9
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 547 625 14 788 9.5 1,439 6 7 8 92 81 67 7.3 6.8 6.3 — — — 8 9 10 0.6 0.6 0.6 16 9
LIC BUY 1,037 1,300 25 6,558 79.2 6,325 55 50 53 19 21 19 9.0 6.8 5.4 — — — 59 37 31 — — — 71 27
Max Financial Services BUY 1,001 1,200 20 345 4.2 345 2 2 2 603 537 467 — — — — — — 1 1 1 — — — 12 7
PB Fintech ADD 1,106 950 (14) 499 6.0 450 1 7 13 1,005 166 85 — — — 1 5 9 — — — 28 17
SBI Life Insurance BUY 1,518 1,675 10 1,520 18.3 1,004 19 20 21 81 77 72 11.7 10.4 9.3 — — — 15 14 14 0.2 0.2 0.2 24 14
Star Health and Allied Insurance ADD 558 600 8 327 3.9 582 14 19 23 41 30 24 5.2 4.4 3.7 — — — 14 16 17 — — — 7 5
Insurance Attractive 12,163 146.8 28.9 30.1 27.6 8.7 7.1 6.0 30 24 22 0.1 0.1 0.1 207 107
Internet Software & Services
Cartrade Tech SELL 757 480 (37) 35 0.4 51.5 8 11 12 89 71 63 1.9 1.8 1.8 55 39 31 2.1 2.6 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
FSN E-commerce Ventures ADD 159 165 4 453 5.5 2,875.0 0 1 2 716 186 101 31.9 27.3 21.5 136 74 49 4.5 15.8 24 — — — 18 9
Indiamart SELL 2,625 2,400 (9) 157 1.9 60.7 57 68 81 46 38 33 8.4 6.9 5.7 37 30 24 17.6 19.5 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9 4
Info Edge ADD 5,158 5,800 12 667 8.1 129.0 65 69 83 80 75 62 5.8 5.5 5.2 66 61 49 7.5 7.5 8.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 19 9
Just Dial BUY 919 1,050 14 78 0.9 85.0 40 51 59 23 18 16 1.9 1.8 1.6 17 11 7 9.0 10.2 10.6 — — — 6 2
Zomato BUY 170 190 12 1,498 18.1 9,131 0 2 4 493 86 44 7.7 6.9 5.9 1,767 89 42 1.6 8.4 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 112 54
Internet Software & Services Attractive 2,889 34.9 148 76 48 7.0 6.4 5.6 134 66 41 4.7 8.5 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 165 80
IT Services
Cyient BUY 2,016 2,400 19 223 2.7 111 67 85 98 30 24 21 5.0 4.5 4.0 17 14 13 19 20 21 1.8 2.3 2.6 12 7
HCL Technologies ADD 1,638 1,750 7 4,445 53.6 2,714 58 65 73 28 25 23 6.5 6.2 5.8 17 16 14 24 25 27 3.1 3.4 3.5 56 32
Infosys BUY 1,637 1,800 10 6,795 82.0 4,146 59 66 75 28 25 22 8.4 7.7 7.1 18 16 14 31 32 34 2.7 3.0 3.4 127 77
KPIT Technologies SELL 1,546 1,000 (35) 424 5.1 273 21 28 36 72 54 42 19.1 15.1 11.9 42 32 26 30 31 31 0.4 0.5 0.6 23 11
L&T Technology Services SELL 5,258 4,700 (11) 556 6.7 106 123 142 164 43 37 32 9.7 8.5 7.4 28 25 21 24 24 25 0.8 1.0 1.2 13 5
LTIMindtree REDUCE 5,217 5,500 5 1,545 18.6 296 160 187 225 33 28 23 8.0 6.9 5.8 22 19 16 26 27 27 1.3 1.5 1.7 37 19
Mphasis REDUCE 2,601 2,380 (8) 491 5.9 188 82 92 107 32 28 24 5.9 5.5 5.1 20 18 16 19 20 22 2.3 2.5 2.7 20 9
Persistent Systems REDUCE 8,471 7,330 (13) 652 7.9 77 148 187 231 57 45 37 14.1 11.7 9.7 37 29 24 26 28 29 0.7 0.8 1.0 31 12
RateGain ADD 811 900 11 96 1.2 113 13 16 22 64 50 37 6.3 5.8 5.0 45 34 25 13 12 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 2
Tata Elxsi SELL 7,693 5,650 (27) 479 5.8 62 131 155 182 59 50 42 19.6 16.7 14.3 43 36 30 36 36 36 0.9 1.1 1.4 14 7
Tata Technologies SELL 1,073 700 (35) 435 5.3 406 17 21 25 62 51 43 13.0 11.6 10.2 45 36 29 22 24 25 0.8 1.0 1.2 - 12
TCS ADD 4,081 4,115 1 14,764 178.2 3,649 127 141 157 32 29 26 15.5 13.9 12.6 22 20 18 49 51 51 1.4 2.8 3.1 108 62
Tech Mahindra REDUCE 1,280 1,330 4 1,126 13.6 890 29 55 72 44 23 18 4.1 4.0 3.7 21 13 11 9 17 22 2.0 3.0 3.1 37 18
Wipro SELL 521 440 (15) 2,720 32.8 5,276 21 23 25 25 22 21 3.7 3.2 2.9 15 13 12 15 15 15 0.2 0.2 1.7 60 23
IT Services Neutral 34,752 419.4 31.1 27.3 24.2 8.7 7.9 7.2 20.3 18.0 16.0 28.1 29.0 29.7 1.7 2.4 2.8 543 295
Media
PVR INOX ADD 1,382 1,700 23 136 1.6 98 18 41 56 75 34 25 1.6 1.6 1.5 18 13 10 2 5 6 0.1 0.3 0.4 14 7
Sun TV Network BUY 639 725 13 252 3.0 394 49 52 55 13 12 12 2.5 2.3 2.1 9 8 7 20 19 19 3.9 4.3 4.7 6 2
Zee Entertainment Enterprises SELL 155 150 (3) 149 1.8 960 7 7 9 24 21 17 1.4 1.4 1.3 15 12 10 6 7 8 1.9 2.6 2.6 102 40
Media Attractive 536 6.5 19.5 16.9 14.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 11.9 10.1 8.8 9.4 10.3 11.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 122 49
Metals & Mining
Hindalco Industries ADD 525 535 2 1,180 14.2 2,220 44 44 46 12 12 11 1.1 1.0 1.0 6.0 5.9 5.6 10 9 9 0.8 0.8 0.9 48 23
Hindustan Zinc SELL 312 270 (14) 1,319 15.9 4,225 20 20 21 15 15 15 10.2 10.2 10.2 9.1 8.8 8.5 66 66 68 6.5 6.5 6.6 3 2
Jindal Steel and Power BUY 839 900 7 856 10.3 1,020 49 62 86 17 13 10 2.0 1.7 1.5 8.9 7.7 5.8 12 14 17 0.3 0.7 1.5 22 8
JSW Steel REDUCE 824 860 4 2,016 24.3 2,417 48 66 85 17 13 10 2.6 2.2 1.9 9.0 7.2 5.9 16 19 21 0.9 1.2 1.5 23 9
National Aluminium Co. SELL 167 90 (46) 306 3.7 1,837 8 8 8 21 20 20 2.2 2.0 1.9 11.1 10.6 10.1 11 11 10 1.9 2.0 2.0 66 23
NMDC SELL 240 205 (15) 703 8.5 2,931 22 20 20 11 12 12 2.7 2.4 2.2 7.3 7.7 7.6 26 22 20 4.5 4.2 4.3 54 22
SAIL SELL 142 70 (51) 585 7.1 4,130 4 6 7 32 24 21 1.0 1.0 1.0 9.9 9.3 8.9 3 4 5 1.1 1.5 1.7 77 30
Tata Steel REDUCE 153 140 (9) 1,911 23.1 12,224 4 10 16 40 16 10 1.9 1.7 1.5 11.2 8.1 6.3 5 11 17 0.6 1.6 2.6 71 33
Vedanta SELL 276 255 (8) 1,027 12.4 3,717 17 20 23 17 14 12 2.5 2.4 2.3 5.3 4.9 4.4 15 18 19 5.4 6.4 6.9 46 21
Metals & Mining Cautious 9,904 119.5 17.9 14.2 11.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 8.1 7.1 6.1 11.7 13.5 15.1 2.3 2.7 3.1 409 171
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Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
BPCL SELL 640 460 (28) 1,389 16.8 2,129 128 55 57 5 12 11 2.0 1.9 1.7 3.7 7.2 6.6 46 17 16 9.1 3.9 4.0 78 36
Coal India SELL 455 335 (26) 2,807 33.9 6,163 49 35 35 9 13 13 3.9 3.6 3.3 9.3 13.8 13.5 47 29 27 5.5 5.5 5.5 78 34
HPCL SELL 525 360 (31) 745 9.0 1,419 103 69 66 5 8 8 2.0 1.8 1.6 5.4 7.8 7.8 46 25 21 7.9 5.2 5.0 62 22
IOCL SELL 175 120 (32) 2,475 29.9 14,121 30 17 16 6 10 11 1.6 1.5 1.4 4.3 6.3 6.3 29 15 13 8.5 4.9 4.5 75 29
Oil India REDUCE 625 475 (24) 678 8.2 1,084 63 62 66 10 10 9 1.8 1.6 1.5 8.3 7.7 7.0 19 17 16 2.5 3.2 3.7 40 16
ONGC REDUCE 279 250 (10) 3,512 42.4 12,580 41 42 40 7 7 7 1.1 1.0 0.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 17 16 14 4.4 4.8 4.5 66 29
Reliance Industries ADD 3,015 2,900 (4) 20,398 246.2 6,766 101 128 140 30 24 22 2.6 2.4 2.2 14.4 12.0 10.4 9 11 10 — 0.3 0.3 210 125
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Neutral 32,004 386.2 13.3 15.0 14.7 2.2 2.0 1.8 8.2 8.7 8.0 16.5 13.2 12.3 2.4 1.9 1.9 608 291
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma REDUCE 1,091 1,000 (8) 639 7.7 586 56 67 77 20 16 14 2.2 2.0 1.8 11 9 8 12 13 13 1.4 1.7 2.0 37 17
Biocon REDUCE 279 255 (9) 335 4.0 1,202 2 8 15 118 37 19 1.5 1.4 1.3 16 13 10 1 4 7 1.1 1.0 1.8 23 10
Blue Jet Healthcare ADD 351 410 17 61 0.7 173 10 13 16 34 26 21 7.5 6.2 5.1 24 19 15 24 26 26 0.7 0.9 1.2 2
Cipla ADD 1,472 1,475 0 1,188 14.3 806 51 57 64 29 26 23 4.4 3.9 3.5 17 16 14 16 16 16 0.8 0.9 1.0 28 15
Concord Biotech REDUCE 1,448 1,450 0 151 1.8 105 30 37 47 49 39 31 9.9 8.4 6.9 35 28 22 22 23 25 0.5 0.6 0.8 3 1
Divis Laboratories SELL 3,482 3,025 (13) 924 11.2 265 60 79 101 58 44 35 6.9 6.4 5.8 41 30 24 12 15 18 1.1 1.2 1.4 22 11
Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 6,335 5,750 (9) 1,057 12.8 166 338 350 329 19 18 19 3.7 3.2 2.8 12 11 11 22 19 15 0.6 0.7 0.7 33 17
Gland Pharma SELL 1,708 1,400 (18) 281 3.4 164 51 63 70 34 27 24 3.2 2.9 2.6 19 15 13 10 11 11 - - - 7 4
Glenmark Life Sciences NR 807 - (100) 99 1.2 123 45 49 53 18 17 15 4.1 3.7 3.3 12 11 10 24 24 23 3.1 3.1 3.1 2 1
Laurus Labs SELL 418 300 (28) 225 2.7 536 4 9 13 104 49 32 5.3 4.8 4.1 29 20 15 5 10 14 - - - 11 5
Lupin SELL 1,670 1,375 (18) 761 9.2 455 45 51 62 38 33 27 5.3 4.7 4.1 20 17 14 15 15 16 0.5 0.5 0.7 24 12
Mankind Pharma ADD 2,159 2,275 5 865 10.4 401 46 56 69 47 38 31 9.8 8.2 6.9 34 28 22 22 23 24 0.5 0.7 0.8 29 18
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 1,552 1,455 (6) 3,724 44.9 2,399 39 48 56 40 32 28 5.9 5.2 4.5 27 22 19 16 17 17 0.5 0.6 0.7 39 23
Torrent Pharmaceuticals REDUCE 2,691 2,325 (14) 911 11.0 338 47 62 77 57 44 35 12.0 9.8 7.9 27 23 20 23 25 25 0.3 0.4 0.5 8 4
Pharmaceuticals Neutral 11,221 135.4 35.2 29.3 25.2 4.8 4.3 3.8 21.0 17.8 15.3 13.8 14.6 15.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 267 139
Real Estate
Brigade Enterprises REDUCE 1,000 1,025 3 231 2.8 231 13 27 35 80 37 29 6.7 5.7 4.9 27 15 11 9 17 18 0.3 0.3 0.3 6 3
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust ADD 254 290 14 112 1.3 439 0 10 15 1,235 25 17 1.1 1.2 1.3 17 12 11 NM 3 5 7.5 9.1 10.0 1 1
DLF ADD 932 840 (10) 2,306 27.8 2,475 10 16 23 92 58 41 5.8 5.3 4.8 124 87 51 7 10 12 0.2 0.2 0.2 49 21
Embassy Office Parks REIT ADD 373 385 3 353 4.3 948 10 14 18 39 26 21 1.5 1.6 1.7 17 13 12 4 6 8 5.8 6.9 7.9 20 17
Godrej Properties SELL 2,492 1,525 (39) 693 8.4 278 21 45 51 118 56 49 7.0 6.2 5.5 (302) 170 227 6 12 12 — — — 22 8
Macrotech Developers ADD 1,185 1,080 (9) 1,143 13.8 964 17 48 54 68 25 22 8.0 6.0 4.7 44 18 15 12 28 24 — — — 13 7
Mindspace REIT ADD 340 370 9 202 2.4 593 9 11 13 39 30 26 1.4 1.4 1.5 15 13 12 4 5 6 6.1 6.5 7.0 1 1
Nexus Select Trust ADD 126 145 15 192 2.3 1,515 4 5 6 29 25 22 6.6 8.5 11.7 15 13 12 25 29 45 7.3 7.4 7.9 1 1
Oberoi Realty REDUCE 1,387 1,245 (10) 504 6.1 364 47 54 90 30 26 15 3.6 3.2 2.6 20 17 10 13 13 19 0.1 0.1 0.1 15 7
Phoenix Mills REDUCE 2,702 2,495 (8) 483 5.8 179 62 84 97 44 32 28 5.1 4.4 3.9 23 17 15 12 15 15 0.1 0.1 0.2 16 9
Prestige Estates Projects ADD 1,180 1,160 (2) 473 5.7 401 31 11 17 38 104 69 4.2 4.1 3.9 28 21 16 12 4 6 0.1 0.1 0.1 17 10
Signature Global SELL 1,424 1,175 (17) 200 2.4 141 13 38 57 111 37 25 24.1 14.6 9.2 87 29 18 41 49 45 — — — 6 3
Sobha SELL 1,607 1,050 (35) 152 1.8 95 15 50 45 106 32 36 5.9 5.0 4.5 41 17 18 6 17 13 0.2 0.3 0.3 14 5
Sunteck Realty BUY 467 550 18 68 0.8 140 19 22 60 24 21 8 2.2 2.0 1.6 20 16 6 9 10 22 0.2 0.2 0.2 7 4
Real Estate Attractive 7,113 85.8 60.5 37.9 29.0 4.5 4.1 3.8 37.6 24.4 18.8 7.4 11.0 13.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 187 95
Retailing
Avenue Supermarts SELL 3,846 3,650 (5) 2,503 30.2 651 40 51 64 97 75 60 13.4 11.4 9.6 61 48 39 15 16 17 — — — 18 12
Metro Brands REDUCE 1,126 1,125 (0) 306 3.7 272 12 16 20 92 70 57 17.3 14.7 12.4 43 35 29 20 23 23 — — 0.6 2 1
Titan Company ADD 3,732 3,750 0 3,314 40.0 888 41 50 62 91 75 60 35.0 26.6 20.2 62 49 40 34 40 38 0.3 0.4 0.5 40 22
Trent ADD 3,920 3,800 (3) 1,393 16.8 356 30 43 62 131 92 63 38.1 26.9 18.8 73 53 39 34 34 35 — — — 36 19
Retailing Neutral 6,123 90.7 98.9 77.6 60.6 22.4 18.0 14.4 62.3 48.5 38.7 23 23 24 0.2 0.2 0.2 97 54
India Research
38
Specialty Chemicals
Aarti Industries SELL 662 480 (28) 240 2.9 363 11 15 20 58 44 33 4.6 4.2 3.8 27 21 17 8 10 12 0.3 0.3 0.6 19 7
Atul SELL 6,080 4,050 (33) 179 2.2 29 134 167 203 46 36 30 3.6 3.3 3.0 25 20 17 8 9 11 0.3 0.5 0.7 4 2
Castrol India SELL 212 180 (15) 209 2.5 989 9 10 11 24 21 19 9.9 9.0 8.2 17 15 13 43 45 44 3.5 3.8 4.0 20 8
Clean Science & Technology ADD 1,390 1,540 11 148 1.8 106 22 30 51 62 46 27 12.2 10.1 7.7 45 33 20 22 24 32 0.3 0.4 0.7 3 2
Deepak Nitrite REDUCE 2,188 2,190 0 298 3.6 136 56 65 81 39 34 27 6.3 5.4 4.6 27 25 21 17 17 18 0.3 0.3 0.4 12 4
Navin Fluorine REDUCE 3,050 3,120 2 151 1.8 50 44 72 104 70 42 29 6.3 5.6 4.8 39 24 18 9 14 18 0.4 0.4 0.5 10 5
Pidilite Industries ADD 2,702 2,825 5 1,374 16.6 508 37 44 51 73 61 53 16.8 14.9 13.3 49 42 37 24 26 27 0.7 0.9 1.1 18 11
PI Industries ADD 3,617 3,830 6 549 6.6 152 108 114 128 33 32 28 6.3 5.4 4.7 26 23 21 21 18 18 0.3 0.4 0.6 21 13
SRF BUY 2,376 2,660 12 704 8.5 296 45 64 95 53 37 25 6.2 5.5 4.6 28 21 15 12 16 20 0.5 0.6 — 15 8
Vinati Organics SELL 1,638 1,100 (33) 168 2.0 104 29 38 48 56 43 34 6.4 5.7 5.0 37 29 23 13 14 16 0.3 0.4 0.4 1 1
Specialty Chemicals Neutral 4,022 48.5 50.1 40.8 32.4 7.8 6.9 6.0 32.0 26.1 21.2 15.6 16.9 18.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 123 61
Telecommunication Services
Bharti Airtel ADD 1,134 1,200 6 6,691 80.8 5,967 21 39 52 53 29 22 7.8 5.9 4.8 10 8 7 15 23 24 0.4 0.5 0.5 80 51
Indus Towers ADD 268 245 (9) 723 8.7 2,695 20 22 14 13 12 19 2.7 2.2 2.2 5 5 5 23 20 12 0.5 4.8 2.8 66 29
Vodafone Idea RS 14 — — 691 8.3 48,680 (7) (6) (6) NM NM NM NM NM NM 19 18 20 NM NM NM — — — 94 22
Tata Communications SELL 1,985 1,595 (20) 566 6.8 285 39 52 69 50 38 29 30.7 19.6 13.2 15 13 11 67 62 55 0.7 0.9 1.3 19 9
Telecommunication Services Attractive 8,671 104.6 NM 692.6 136.0 86 57 71 11.1 9.2 8.2 NM 8.3 52 0.5 0.8 0.7 259 111
Transportation
Adani Ports and SEZ BUY 1,343 1,520 13 2,900 35.0 2,160 43 53 64 31 25 21 5.4 4.5 3.8 20 17 14 19 19 20 0.2 0.3 0.5 103 35
Container Corp. SELL 986 720 (27) 601 7.3 609 21 25 29 47 40 34 5.1 4.8 4.5 29 25 21 11 13 14 1.0 1.2 1.4 23 11
Delhivery BUY 459 570 24 338 4.1 739 (3) 0 2 NM 6,397 189 3.7 3.6 3.5 217 66 39 NM 0 2 — — — 15 9
Gateway Distriparks ADD 107 119 12 53 0.6 500 5 6 7 20 17 15 2.7 2.5 2.2 14 12 10 14 15 16 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 1
GMR Airports SELL 87 62 (28) 523 6.3 6,036 (2) (0) 0 NM NM 433 NM NM NM 30 16 13 NM NM 12 — — — 71 30
Gujarat Pipavav Port REDUCE 207 166 (20) 100 1.2 483 8 10 11 25 21 18 4.1 3.9 3.7 16 13 12 17 19 21 2.7 3.1 3.6 14 6
InterGlobe Aviation BUY 3,171 3,700 17 1,224 14.8 383 185 178 208 17 18 15 147.0 15.9 3.6 6 5 4 NM 161 69 — — — 31 18
JSW Infrastructure SELL 261 190 (27) 547 6.6 2,100 6 7 9 47 35 30 6.9 6.0 20.9 28 23 21 19 18 18 0.2 0.6 0.7 16 8
Mahindra Logistics SELL 429 300 (30) 31 0.4 71 (1) 8 16 NM 53 26 5.6 5.2 4.5 16 11 8 NM 10 18 — — — 3 1
Transportation Attractive 6,317 76.2 34.6 28.9 23.7 7.1 5.8 4.8 17.0 13.3 11.1 20 20 20 0.3 0.4 0.5 278 120
KIE universe 280,154 3,381 25.3 23.1 20.4 4.0 3.6 3.2 15.1 13.7 12.2 16.0 15.6 15.8 1.3 1.4 1.5
Notes:
(a) We have used adjusted book values for banking companies.
(b) 2024 means calendar year 2023, similarly for 2025 and 2026 for these particular companies.
(c) Exchange rate (Rs/US$)= 82.9
India Research
39
DISCLAIMERS, DISCLOSURES & LEGAL

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe
Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional

70%
Equities, within the specified category.
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
50%
provided investment banking services within the previous
12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
31.0% expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% 26.3% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver
23.1% 5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We
19.6% expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next
20% 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver less than
-5% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices
10% 6.7% are also on a 12-month horizon basis. These ratings are
3.1% 2.4% used illustratively to comply with applicable regulations. As
0.0% of 31/12/2023 Kotak Institutional Equities Investment
0%
Research had investment ratings on 255 equity securities.
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL
Source: Kotak Institutional Equities

As of December 31, 2023
Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

Definitions of ratings
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related
to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the
following designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.
NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a
sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in
effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
India Research
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Flipkart: Coming to a realization that cost of logistics is impeding growth

Split of logistics volumes assuming 17% CAGR in market volumes (%)

80% 14% CAGR 12% CAGR

40% 20% CAGR 21% CAGR

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Adjusted EBITDA margin

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Key Express Parcel Overall

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Revenue growth (%)

PBT margin (%) excluding other income

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities

Source: Companies, Industry reports, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Incremental revenues on Rs1 of capex averaged over past five years

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities

Revenues (A) - Equity+net debt- (A)/(B) -

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

We increase FV to Rs570 from Rs500

DCF valuation (March-2025E)

Per share FV calculation (Dec-2023)

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

We expect revenue CAGR of 17% for Delhivery over FY2023-26E

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Adani Ports and SEZ (ADSEZ) BUY

Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Aditya Mongia Deepak Krishnan Sai Siddhardha P

Quarterly volumes (LHS, mn tons) Yoy growth (RHS, %)

30.0 27.6 26.5 45.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Mundra Hazira Nhava Sheva - GTI Pipavav

Change over four years

Source: CMA CGM, Kotak Institutional Equities

Adani Ports and SEZ

We increase our estimates for FY2026 by 4-5%

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Adani Ports and SEZ

We arrive at an SoTP-based Fair Value of Rs1,520/share for ADSEZ

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Adani Ports and SEZ

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Adani Ports and SEZ

Eicher Motors (EIM) SELL

Domestic volume growth to moderate Company data and valuation summary

Muted demand trends in richer states weigh on RE’s domestic performance

Rishi Vora Praveen Poreddy

GDP per capita RE's market share in 2018-23

Source: Census of India, Statistics Ministry, SIAM, Kotak Institutional Equities

Source: Vahaan, Kotak Institutional Equities Feb-23

Expect Royal Enfield to lose market share in domestic market

Source: SIAM, Kotak Institutional Equities