An ex post facto study of global crisis impact on
2023 3rd International Conference on Innovative Research in Applied Science, Engineering and Technology (IRASET) | 979-8-3503-9836-6/23/$31.00 ©2023 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/IRASET57153.2023.10153004
supply chain performance: case of the automotive
sector
Abdellah BAIS
Mathematics, Informatic & Applications Team
Abdelmalek Essaadi University
Tangier, Morocco
abdellahbaais@gmail.com
Abstract—The purpose of this paper is to examines the
impact of global crisis on supply chain performance, especially
in automotive firms. We could confirm that the two actual
crisis coronavirus and semi-conductors’ shortage helped more to
uncover and show the supply chain disadvantage and obstacles
in downstream and upstream of the network . Supply chains are
exposed to many risks and vulnerable to disruption propagation
. In this context we will briefly review literature research on
global crisis management, and we will show how global crisis has
been affecting the normal flow of supply chain and production
especially in automotive firms.
Index Terms—Supply chain, Uncertainty, Performance
measurement,Risk management, Disruption, Covid-19, Obsolete
I. INTRODUCTION
The term supply chain (SC) is referred to an integrated sys-
tem which used to deliver products and services from suppliers
of raw materials to end customers through a connected flow
of information, material, and finance [1] . In a supply chain,
the crisis occurs when one or more supply chain members’
activities are interrupted, resulting in a major disruption of
the normal flow of goods or services. The consequences of
some actual crisis like covid pandemic on the global economy
are very strong. It is now established that those crises will have
caused the largest synchronized decline in global GDP (gross
domestic product ) in modern history, although governments
quickly took action to mitigate its effects thanks to lessons
learned from the global financial crisis of 2009.According to
[2] supply chain disruption is defined as unpredicted incident
that stop or slows the regular processes of product along the
supply network. Crisis such as semi-conductors , covid-19,
global financial crisis of 2009 and other were considered as
a source of disruption and risk that troubling and damaging
the normal flow of supply chain process. The covid-19 has
been classified as the most dangerous pandemic in the world
[4]. At the beginning the world community underestimated
the dangers of coronavirus and nobody expected the rapid
spread of this pandemic. Many people think that the plague
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Khalid Amechnoue
Mathematics, Informatic & Applications Team
Abdelmalek Essaadi University
Tangier, Morocco
kamechnoue@gmail.com
will remain confined in China as like many other viruses
that appeared in the past which had spread only in China.
However, the virus has spread rapidly in most regions [5]
given rise to a high impact in several filed [6]. The situation
is highly evolving [7] and the authorities in each country
must act quickly and take a variety of measures related to
the health crisis [8].In addition countries have suffered greatly
from 2008-2009 economic crisis that shook the world and
did not pass without leaving an economic downturn behind
as in [9]. The financial crisis has affected hugely supply chain
network between 2008 and 2011 and was more violent due
to the size of terrible damages witnessed in all areas. The
world economy is highly affected by all those crises which,
influenced more the supply chain network and industry life,
and it stopped all interaction between supplier and customer.
During this time the supply chain process was very complex
and prone to high uncertainties and volatile variations. In this
context studying and analyzing the situation of supply network
under the actual crisis may help to uncover the root cause
of malfunction, inefficacy and inefficiency of supply chain.
Within this paper, our contributions are as follows. Section 2
contains a review of relevant literature discussion studied the
impact of last crisis on supply chain and industrial environment
. The research methodology will be justified and explained in
the section 3. In the section 4 we analyze and present how
crisis affects the performance of supply chain.. Within section
5 and 6 we provide a brief analysis of data collection and how
crisis such as covid -19 impact the global network of supply
chain. Finally, we finished our paper with a conclusion where
we summarized the great ideas of our research.
II. OVERVIEW OF LITERATURE REVIEW
Risk in a supply chain is the potential variation in outcomes
that influence the decrease in value added to any activity cell
in a chain [10]. Risk is defined as an event whose random
occurrence is likely to cause damage to persons or property
or to both at the same time. It is as possible danger and
uncertainty linked to a situation or activities . Risks incorporate
the effect of these uncertainties on the performance of the
SC. Risk management interested on identification, economical
control and analysis of risks, which can menace global or part
of economical incomes of companies.
According to [11] risk management is defined as a general
management process and function that seeks to assess studying
risks and uncertainties by applying tools collaboratively with
partners related with activities and resources in supply chain
organization. In the paper [10] authors proposed a conceptual
model for the supply chain risk sources. As shown in fig 6
the authors suggested that there are five categories of sources
; internal of the firm such as process and control risk , external
of the firm but is not out such as demand, and supply and final
categories take in to account all environment aspects which are
external of the firm and the supply chain network.
Internal to the firm
supply Process Demand
risk risk risk
Control
risk
Supply chain Network
Environnemental Risk
Fig. 1. Sources of supply chain Risk
The outbreak of global crisis changes a normal life of
many fields especially economic and industrial manufacturing.
Historically there are many crises hitting the world like the
subprime crisis in 2008 , known as the “subprime” crisis,
is quite like that of 1929. It was due to the bursting of a
speculative real estate bubble, which led to a banking and then
an economic crisis. Starting in the United States, it has spread
all over the world. In France, the Gross domestic product
(GDP) contracted by 2.9The current health crisis is triggering a
global economic crisis. The exact impact of this crisis is still
difficult to quantify, but the shock is likely to be extremely
violent throughout the world, much greater than the crisis of
2008-2009. This pandemic has negatives impacts on public
health emergency and has caused also a major economic shock
[13]. In his part World Health Organization (WHO) urged
countries to establish a sever measures to stop the pandemic
propagation [14]. As specified by[15] it is very important
to analyze and prioritize the effective preventives measures
to be applied and follow the Asian countries experience
because they affronted before many viral outbreaks and had
rapidly implement lockdowns and necessary health protection
measures to affront convid-19. On the one hand these measures
may help to reduce infection [16;17] and mitigate transmission
between but on the other hand these instructions have a lot of
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effects on several fields [18].The authors presented in their
research [15] a picture of Eurozone regions and they said that
the last part of 2019 was economically poor and dropped by
3.8% at the first part of 2020 by the coming of coronavirus.
Given that the economic productivity is shrank and fell in the
greatest economy in Europa like French, Germany and Italy.
In addition, the rate of unemployment ware increased and
climbed up in all European countries. The experts expected
that this pandemic will leave behind a lot of new poor in
all points in the world and it will widen the gap driving
rich and poor. Conforming to [19] the researchers declared
that coronavirus has caused a vast economic breakdown and
the industrial activity levels have collapsed. In addition, the
international labor organization suppose manufacturing top-
ping the list of more affected by the plague, for instance the
aviation industry has been facing the gravest and the worst
crisis never seen. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director
of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that our
current situation faces exceptional uncertainty, as information
regarding the depth of the crisis and its lifespan are difficult
to determine, nevertheless it is clear that in 2020 the global
growth will reach sharply negative levels .Moreover in the
latest releases published by the IMF regarding its forecasts
for the global economy in light of the continued spread of
the virus, as it confirmed that the epidemic has put its mark
in the world and is causing the highest levels of economic
recession in about 100 years, in addition the GDP is expected
to shrink at 4.9% in 2020[20] . Covid-19 is one of the more
crises has making supply chain and market in front of a great
unforeseen challenge [21]. In 2020 the last director of the
world trade organization (WTO) Roberto Azevêdo confirmed
that this year the forecasts are different, the covid-19 stopped
the world economy and creating a huge shock at the level
of the supply chain. It is predicted that the global economy
will downfall this year at the level of all sectors and the
decline could exceed 32% as in [22]. The research asked
how firm could do to provide spare parts and products within
disruptive supply network, or what suggesting if government
imposes travel bans and close the borders against the world
[14]. Already in March with the lockdown of China, many
firms have stopped their production and made on standby all
activities linked with their supplier and customers. Since the
onset of the crisis, international labor Organization reported by
some statistics that working hour in many regions have been
declined. In addition, the statistics may let us to conclude the
evolution and the growth of jobless in each country during this
period [23].
The High Commission for Planning (HCP) which is the
Moroccan national statistics office reported in [24] that be-
tween April 2020, 6300 Moroccan firms declared a definitive
stoppage of their activities while 135000 firms decided to
stop temporarily their activities in this period. In 2021 The
global shortage of semiconductors is hampering the recovery
of certain industrial companies. It should not end before
2023.Despite the economic recovery, many industries are
idling due to a shortage of microchips. Car manufacturers
are particularly affected, especially in Europe. The specter of
bankruptcy has begun to haunt medium and small companies
[25] this situation is imposed by the semiconductor’s shortage
and covid-19. Therefor supply chains Disruption and declining
consumer demand, has led to millions of workers being laid
off and enter in the forced slump tunnel. During the virus
period, the business has been very difficult for many small
and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) due to longtime of
shutdown, production and logistic costs increase and the shrink
of market demand consequently all these raisons may puss this
companies to bankruptcy [26] .All sectors have been severally
influenced and their revenues were collapsed. Both automotive
and aeronautic industries have come to a sudden halt. Accord-
ingly, economic activities and global Supply chain networks
was more influenced by the epidemic. Thus, the normal flows
of supply chain have been become more complicated.
III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
If the description tools are numerous, these often remain at
the level of comparison or correlation. For our research sub-
ject, it seems relevant to move towards a Causal Comparative
Design (Ex Post Facto Design) analysis. This study is based
on a quantitative-descriptive approach where the Ex Post Facto
Design method was chosen because the independent variables
studied are impossible to control or predict [27].
The ex Post Facto Design will therefore be used to compare
the logistics performance of an automotive company based in
Morocco before and after the appearance of covid-19, in the
same way we will also examine the impact of this crisis on the
production of cars during this period . This research method
also makes it possible to best describe this phenomenon,
which has an obvious temporal dimension. These analyzes can
only be done by introducing this temporal dimension in the
observation and evaluation of the figures already achieved and
that we will collect them from the people who work in this
company and from international organizations accredited to
make this kind of statistics.
The database studied is very reliable. In fact, the evaluation
and temporal observation linked to the impact of the crisis is
most often based on the comparison of this impact on different
dates and on different links in the supply chain network. The
data collected makes it possible to measure the effect of the
evolution of the number of cases infected by the virus in the
world and to compare them with the evolution of customer
demand in the automotive field. The method proposed in this
article is based on real and reliable data. They are certainly
used to illustrate monitoring of the overall impact of the
health crisis or other crisis on the normal flow. This study
considers the approach proposed by authors in [28] to ensure
ex post facto research, in each of the steps reported by those
authors are preliminary phases that allow a better conduct this
research project see fig 2 . The descriptive study as a research
approach adopted in this article allows an intensive analysis
of a phenomenon impacting several domains and emphasizing
the influencing factors in relation to the environment. of the
supply chain.
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Research Hypothesis
Two hypotheses were formulated to guide the investigation
and the statistical analysis of impact of global crisis.
H1:We assume as hypothesis that the different companies work
with a flow driven by customer demand.
H2: As long as covid is the most severe crisis in the world and
to put more protection we consider that the impact of global
crises is the same on the performance of the supply chain in
the automotive sector whatever the type of crisis.
1°. Defining the 2°. 3°. Formulation
Literature
Research of hypotheses.
Problem review.
4°. Determine procedures for subject selection and
techniques used to collect data
5°. Determination of procedures for data analysis, such as
statistical tests of significance and association.
7°. Finally we have to describe,
6°. data analyze and interpret the results in
collection. clear and precise terms.
Fig. 2. The ex post facto research steps with descriptive analysis approach
IV. THE IMPACT OF CRISIS ON SUPPLY CHAIN
PERFORMANCE
At the first, it is necessary to define the term performance
measurement to better meet the ultimate purpose of this study.
This term can be defined as the instrument used to measure
the efficiency and effectiveness of a function performed by a
machine, person, team, or group in a particular area [26]. A
major challenge in this period is managing and understanding
uncertainty caused by the crisis outbreak. The last crisis
had gravelly influenced supply chain management for many
manufacturing industries like auto and electronics. Strong
decisions were taking place to reduce disruption risk . For
companies, the stoppage of raw material production has caused
disruptions in the supply chains, which implies an increase in
the risk of market losses.
Markets make a great pressure on supply chain management
to ensure every component and product to be in the right
place, at the right time and, of course, at with a lower cost, but
the mission will be very difficult in this period. The situation
needs that executor should well understand the new supply
chain with the disruption caused by the epidemic outbreak.
The rate of economic growth has declined, and the conditions
were more changed under pandemic propagation, which
means a global supply shortage in raw material, transport
and other resources. The origin of the word risk cannot be

Example of impact
slowdown of new production
lines
Concentrate resources in one
zone
Delays in the distribution
Incapacity to meet the orders
Risk of oversized order vol-
umes and shortages
TABLE I
THE IMPACT ON SUPPLY CHAIN CAUSED BY THE CRISIS
Cause linked with crisis
The war in Ukraine undeniably impacts the semiconductor industry, Russia and Ukraine producing raw materials used
in the production processes of electronic chips[29].
Semiconductor manufacturing is a complex process that is not within the reach of any factory
Manufacturing requires adapted and costly installations as well as precise know-how. Therefore, the shortage of
semiconductors is not the result of a lack of material as is often the case but of a lack of personnel and infrastructure
capable of transforming it.
As reported in [30] the millions of vehicles have not been produced since the start of 2021 due to the shortage of
semiconductors .they added that new car prices have accelerated, and the cars inventories decrease by the time, this
situation indicate that there is insufficiency to meet customer demand
There are many factors contributing to the profound impact of crisis such as Britain leaving the European Union or
for example the trade war between China and the USA and many others directs and indirect factors [26].

Plant Locations Factors Manufacturing Practices

Quantitative
 Cost  Computer-integrated manufacturing
Qualitative Supply Chain Performance  Benchmarking
 Infrastructure Measures  Flexible manufacturing system
 Business Services  Internal quality systems audit
 Labor & Government  Lead Time  Just-in-time/ Quick changeover
 Customer/Market  Inventory  Manufacturing cells
 Supplier/Resources  Time to Market  Predictive & Preventive maintenance
 Quality  Statistical process control
 Customer Service  Suppliers and customers focus
Supply chain Uncertainty
 Flexibility  Total quality management
 Supplier Uncertainty  Value & concurrent engineering
 Process Uncertainty  Vendor certifications
 Computer aided process planning
 Demand Uncertainty

Fig. 3. Framework of supply chain Performance measures as reported in [31]

clearly determined since this term seems to have roots in
different cultures. They defined risk as an alarm to obtain a
devaluation and reduction in the performance of the system.
Supply chain networks are vulnerable in view of existing an
internal and external influences [32]. Additionally, managers
should consider the non-realization of goals due to a lack of
efficiency in the supply chain process as a critical KPI in
supply chain performance measures. The best management
of information and physical flow is essential to meet the
needs of consumers and prevent situations that could lead to
the disorganization of the supply chain. Measuring logistics
reliability in all links of the supply chain involves identifying
and analyzing the various internal and external indicators.
However, choosing the best and rights indicators for logistics
evaluation become more difficult especially during a crisis
period as covid-19 outbreak. This paper doesn’t suggest a
whole of performances measurement criteria as shown in fig.
3, however we will focalize on two points of performance;
Forecasting performance measure & Inventory obsolescence.
Table 1 reports a descriptive of the crisis impact on supply
chain performance, which are based on the historic statistic
reported by international organization. A performance
measurement system should be readily understandable by the
decision maker and provide a guide for the action to be taken
on the issues related to all area of supply chain [14;15].
V. DATA COLLECTION
The paper on our hand aims to study the impact of coron-
avirus on customer demand. This work was completed within
an automotive company named the XJ group. This firm is
in Tangier, Morocco and is specialized in the manufacture of
sub-assemblies and components for the automotive industry
located in and outside Morocco. The COVID-19 pandemic is
intensifying worldwide and has had a significant impact on
health, supply chains, production capacity, and travel, leading
to a succession of decisions made by government authorities
to mitigate the pandemic and find emergency solution . Most
suppliers and customers of the XJ group closed their sites
immediately after the huge propagation of the virus. These
unprecedented and unpredictable circumstances are causing
severe disruptions to our supply chains and organization,
forcing the XJ group to close the plant and stop production on
March 20, 2020. The date of restarting production in XJ group
was delayed several times because there is an uncertainty and
a great evolution of the virus in Morocco . To show how covid-
19 interrupted the XJ group supply chain we present in this
article a real case study of the situation of global supply chain
between the XJ group and one of its customers. XJ produced
seven different final products for its customers . All the data
used in this empirical study represent the real case of the
physical and information flows that occurred during February
and Mai. Customer demand was received every week through
the exchange of data information (EDI) and the delivery of
products was also weekly.

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 VI. DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF
RESULTS
A. Demand and supply disruptions during the Covid-19 crisis
Table 2 shows the sales schedule for the following 14 weeks.
This schedule consists of eight firm weeks, and the rest of
the forecasts. It was clarified that in February, the virus had
not yet been introduced in Morocco, but in the same period,
several organizations were alerted to the danger and severity
of the virus and the risk of disruption, which would affect
the normal flow of the supply chain. In addition, there is
no sign that the customer has reduced the quantity requested
each week by considering the rapid diffusion of covid-19.
The production capacity of XJ group is limited at 12,000 pcs
per week . But the customer requires a huge volume starting
from W13. To meet these demands, the XJ group launched
material supplies, and overtime was added to cover customer
needs and to avoid any supply chain disruptions . Unlike the
EDI sent by the customer, real delivery is always inferior.
Table 3 lists the actual demands ordered by customer. The
total number of cancelled products was more than 130,000
pcs which equals a loss of 325,000 C in future revenue . The
representation graph in fig.5 is built from the two tables. On
the other hand, the graph is used to show data in an even
clearer way, as it allows us to quickly compare items and
visualize the variations of this phenomenon. In the fig. 6 Below
we share graphics from an official source WHO, where we
make a comparison of evolution of covid-19 during 4 phases.
It is difficult to obtain a real demand when a business is
surrounded by disruptions and has an invisible future for sales
and customer orders. To respond to the client’s program, it
is necessary to initiate purchases and supply of raw materials
from suppliers located outside Morocco to ensure availability
for production, which occurs more than four weeks before
the production time by more than 4 weeks. This operation
was really confused our requirement agent because the supply
chain conditions was highly changed. Analyzing the 4 phases
along this period we could clarify that: Phase 1; statistics
show that before week 11 and especially before March 9,
the virus to start to progress in the European region as well
as in north Africa, in this period customer orders begin to
have a small disturbance as well as visibility decreases, the
thing that reflects that the customer has not ordered all his
request. Phase 2: this is a point where the customer has felt
the risk of viruses and the disruptions that can bring to their
supply chain; hence the order for week 12 makes it possible
to create a safety stock and limit disruptions of stock due
to unforeseen hazards. Phase 3: The coronavirus pandemic
affects all areas with varying degrees. As shown in fig 5 &
6, the virus has reached a level that requires the authorities to
apply strict preventive measures. In this context, the Covid-19
epidemic and its associated measures can be considered a case
of a force majeure. which makes it impossible to fulfill the
order of the planned material needs. The client must cancel
all the requests from W13 in a straightforward manner and
temporarily halt their activities. The statistics clearly show that
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XJ Group experienced a significant decline in revenue and
production. Therefore, executives decide to stop production
and lay off their employees. Phase 4: The automotive industry
began to recover from the pandemic. Companies have applied
all measures recommended by the government. The XJ group
assured the best efforts to ensure the health of their employees
and communities and took every possible measure to adapt to
the changing situation daily. The impact of covid-19 on the
XJ group supply chain was the same for all companies in the
automotive industry. The statistics shared by the International
Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) [33]
reported as shown in fig 4 that the sales of new vehicles
shut down between January and April. But In May, most
vehicles started production and sales increased step-by-step,
particularly in June and July.
Fig. 4. Statistic of sales rate evolution in 2019 & 2020 reported by [33]
Morocco is among the top countries impacted by the novel
coronavirus(Table 4 & Fig 6). In 2020, Morocco produced 248
430 vehicles in comparison to 394652 in 2019 and 402085 in
2018; thus, the gap was wide [34]. As coronavirus hits sales in
industrial sector especially car and aerospace manufacturers,
many Original equipment manufacturer (OEM ) as Volkswa-
gen and Ferrari were decided to suspend production in Europe
[35].
B. Inventory Obsolete
After restarting production, we chose that our customer
cancels the total order of the two articles: Item 2 and Item 4.
The customer explained his decision by saying that the OEM
had stopped producing this type of car, and we could not order
any more components of Items 2 and 4 from XJ Group. At
this time, the XJ group produced approximately 2970 pcs of
Item 1 and 3819 pcs of Item which is equal to 6789 pcs in
total. This quantity forms an obsolete inventory which cost 18
330 C and will increase the inventory value (see Table 5). This
was another disruption that was unexpected and experienced
in XJ.
In general, obsolete stocks consist of products with a history
of high sales that cease to meet consumer demands. At first
glance, we can see that the covid-19 outbreak was the root
 TABLE II
FORECASTS PROGRAM ORDERED BY CUSTOMER IN 2020
Customer demand EDI by week

Products W8 W9 W 10 W 11 W 12 W 13 W 14 W 15 W 16 W 17 W 18 W 19 W 20 W 21

Item 1 1778 1943 2768 2108 953 2933 3263 3923 2438 3263 3263 3428 2768 3593
Item 2 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1530 1700 1870 1360 1700 1700 1870 1020 0
Item 3 1992 1992 972 1992 2502 3012 3522 3522 2502 3522 3522 3012 3012 3522
Item 4 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1530 1700 2040 1360 1530 1700 1700 1020 0
Item 5 1992 1002 1992 1002 2157 2322 2322 1992 1662 2157 2157 2322 2157 2487
Item 6 1003 1003 1003 1003 1003 1498 1663 1993 1168 1663 1663 1828 1498 1828
Item 7 1091 1091 1091 1091 1091 1421 1751 2081 1421 1586 1751 1751 1586 1916
Total
9 896 9 071 9 866 9 236 9 746 14 246 15 921 17 421 11 911 15 421 15 756 15 911 13 061 13 346
demand

TABLE III
REAL QUANTITIES ORDERED BY CUSTOMER IN 2020
Reel quantities commanded and delivered
Products W8 W9 W 10 W 11 W 12 W 13 W 14 W 15 W 16 W 17 W 18 W 19 W 20 W 21

Item 1 1778 953 0 0 3098 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8

Item 2 0 848 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Item 3 0 0 0 0 4032 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Item 4 0 0 0 0 846 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Item 5 1992 0 0 0 407 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 177
Item 6 1010 1010 0 0 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 185
Item 7 0 1006 0 0 1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 181
Total 4780 3817 0 0 12479 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 551
delivered

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4

Fig. 5. Evolution of demand and quantities delivered during 2020

Fig. 6. Statistic of covid-cases rate in Europe and Africa in 2020 .Source WHO

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 TABLE IV fluctuating environments [39]. As we know a lot of meeting
STATISTIC OF WORLD VEHICLE PRODUCTION IN 2020 CITED IN [34] were occurred at the beginning of each period including the
Country/ Commercial subject of inventory inspection and replenishment decisions
Cars Total % change
Region vehicles [40], where the objective is to predict and minimize the extra-
Indonesia 551 400 139 886 691 286 -46% cost of potential disruption. However, in the coronavirus
Austria 104 544 - 104 544 -42%
period, the manager engenders each part of the downstream
France 927 718 388 653 1 316 371 -39%
and upstream delays to make decisions under the raison of no
Morocco 221 299 27 131 248 430 -38%
Serbia 23 272 103 23 375 -33%
visibility of forecast and customer demand. Managers should
Ukraine 4 202 750 4 952 -32% adapt their production systems, performance measurement
Brazil 1608870 405 185 2 014 055 -32% criteria and inventory policies to eventual emergencies and
Poland 278 900 172 482 451 382 -31% environmental conditions. Although difficult, it is necessary to
United 920 928 66 116 987 044 -29% use a dynamic and strong manufacturing planning and control
Kingdom (MPC) system to switch between different approaches owing
South 238 216 209 002 447 218 -29% to market variations [41]. For instance, authors in [42] proved
Africa that a reorder policy is the optimal approach in the presence
of potential risks of demand cancellation and supply chain
TABLE V uncertainty.
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF OBSOLETE CAUSED BY THE COVID-19

Final products Stock Inventory Total qty forecasted VII. CONCLUSION

Item 2 2970 12750
Item 4 3819 12580
Total 6789 25330
Amount 18 330,30 € 68 391,00 €
cause of the obsolescence. However, this is insufficient and
cannot be the principal cause of an obsolete inventory. In
week W21, the XJ group was surprised that its customers had
stopped ordering the two items, which pushed managers to
demand explications of these break bad news. By analyzing
the dramatic events during this period of the virus from
the beginning of the year, we can conclude that there are
many factors behind this obsolete inventory. First, strong
communication exists between the suppliers and customers.
The thread linking the two parts was weak, particularly during
the pandemic. But why the cancelation of demand was delayed
until May 18 ”W21” knowing that the virus was already spread
in whole of the world and several manufacturing industry
and markets was stopped in March. Why can the two parts
or all the supply chain partners not predict or expect the
risk of this disruption before the two items are planned and
produced? Unexpected fluctuations in the environment may
affect the continuity of relationships and supply between firms;
therefore, it is necessary to enhance alliances between partners
to anticipate and respond correctly to these contingencies [36].
In addition, empirical studies report that trust and commitment
are important for reinforcing logistics alliance relationships
and avoiding conflicts between buyers and supplier [37]. How-
ever, regarding the evolution of market needs and technologies
that could make sudden products obsolete, firms may face
many supply chain relationship problems [38]. The second
factor is linked to firms’ inventory replenishment policies,
which are important for satisfying the supply chain man-
agement requirements. Dynamic manufacturing planning and
control. Determining the correct values of ordering quantities,
inventory levels, and safety stock is difficult in unexpectedly
Supply chain management excellence focuses on a com-
pany’s planning strategy and objectives. One of the key
elements of this notion of excellence is the integration of
performance indicators at each link in the logistics process.
The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of
the global crisis on supply chain performances in this case
we conduct an ex post facto approach on covid-19 impacts
. The analysis concentrated on a real case study that used
real data and statistics during the four phases of coronavirus
evolution. Unfortunately, it is difficult to study and understand
the behavior of viruses when predicting supply chain risk.
Supply chain disruptions occurs in two phases. The first phase
concerns the shortage of raw materials and spare parts in
addition to the delay and decrease in export orders. In the
second phase, we showed that the demand and global supply
were severely damaged by the widespread plague. A large
part of the automotive and electronics industry have been
interrupted in the supply chain of some products. Customer
demand presents vast ambiguity and uncertainty, consequently
it is very difficult to meet this demand using these parameters.
Therefore, several companies followed many strategies; for
instance, some reduced the working hours of their permanent
employees and sometimes paid them a half of their normal
monthly take-home pay. Actual circumstances can lead to
a review of how executives manage supply chain processes
with customers and suppliers. The current period of covid-19
represents an opportunity to change several basic elements of
the supply chain and build a strong framework for the next
period.
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