PIG

INTRODUCTIO
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A. Background Behind
We have understood that the probability of a conditional event is a probability of
two events that depend on each other whether event A occurs or does not occur
influence happen incident B, symbolized with P ( B | A ) . Will but what if P ( B | A )
turns out to be difficult to calculate? This is where the theorem arises Bayes will make
it easier by using the inverse, namely P ( A | B ) . The rest of Bayes' theorem is suitable
for many more complicated cases than usually.
Theorem Bayes stated by a priest Presbyterian English on in 1763 named Thomas
Bayes. Bayes' theorem was then refined by Laplace. Theorem Bayes used For count
probability happen something incident based on influence Which obtained from the
results observation.
This theorem explains the relationship between the probability of event A
occurring provided that event B has occurred and the probability of event B occurring
with condition that event A has occurred. This theorem is based on the principle that
addition information can improve probabilities.
Bayes' theorem is a theorem with two different interpretations. In Bayes
interpretation , this theorem states how far the degree of belief, that is stated as
probability, must changed in a way rational For explain availability of related evidence.
Bayesian inference is fundamental to Bayesian statistics. In the frequencyist
interpretation this theorem explains the inverse representation of probability two
incident. Theorem This is base from statistics Bayes And own application in science,
engineering, economics (especially microeconomics), theory game, medical And law.
Application theorem Bayes For renew trust is called inference Bayes.
Various studies on this Bayes method has actually been done and is still being
developed by researchers using various Bayesian methods. The most common methods
are Bayes' theorem, naive Bayesian, netwoek bayes. This is because the Bayes method
is a good method machine learning based on data training, with use probability
conditional as basically. As example, Wrong One study Which published

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 on year 2010 is Asty Marlina research use method bayes For determine appropriateness
potential candidate Work in outside country.

B. Formulation Problem
Based on background behind we conclude a number of formulation problem
Whichwill in discuss on paper we. As for formulation the problem that is as following :
1. Explain What it's an opportunity total and theorem Bayesian?
2. Formulas as well as proof of the incident total/odds total And theorem Bayesian?
3. How examples from incident total/odds total and theorem Bayesian?

C. Objective
As for from formulation problem objective writing from formulation problem
that isas following:
1. Know And add outlook related with theorem opportunity total Andtheorem bayes.
2. Add outlook about formulas Which can used along withformula proofs.
3. Increase information And reasoning in do sharea discussion Whichrelated with
total events/probabilities total and theorem bayes.

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 CHAPTER II
DISCUSSION

A. Probability Theorem Total / Incident Total

Total Odds are accepted odds and refer to the total put outs and assists just. Or
more in short that is To use For look for opportunity Which difficult determined in a
way direct.
Theorem 1
If events 𝐵1, 𝐵2, … , 𝐵𝑛 is something restrictions (partition) from roomsample 𝑆 with
𝑃(𝐵𝑖) ≠ 0 for 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛 so For every incident A member 𝑆
𝑛 𝑛

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) = ∑ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 𝑖 ∩ 𝐴 ) = ∑ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵 𝑖 )
𝑖=1 𝑖=1

Illustration 1 Incident Total / Opportunity Total

Picture 1. Space partitioning sample S

𝐴 = ⋯?
𝐴 = (𝐸∩𝐴)𝖴(𝐸𝑐 ∩𝐴)
𝐴 = (𝐸∩𝐴)+(𝐸𝑐 ∩𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴) =𝑃(𝐸∩𝐴)+𝑃(𝐸𝑐 ∩𝐴)
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) = 𝑃 ( 𝐸 ) 𝑃 ( 𝐴 | 𝐸 ) + 𝑃(𝐸 𝑐 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 𝑐 )
Incident Conditional that is :

𝑃 (𝐴|𝐵) = (𝐴∩𝐵) , with 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0

𝑃(𝐵)

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)= 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)

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Illustration 2 Incident Total / Opportunity Total

Take note diagram Venn on Picture 2. Seen that incident A iscombined from a
number of incidents Which each other separated

Picture 2. Space partitioning sample S

𝐴 = ⋯?
𝐵 1 ∩ 𝐴, 𝐵 2 ∩ 𝐴, … , 𝐵 𝑛 ∩ 𝐴
𝐴=( 1 ∩ 𝐴 ) 𝖴 ( 𝐵 2 ∩ 𝐴 ) 𝖴 … 𝖴 (𝐵 𝑛 ∩ 𝐴)
𝐴=( 1 ∩ 𝐴 ) + ( 𝐵 2 ∩ 𝐴 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐵 𝑛 ∩ 𝐴)

Opportunity A then you can calculated through:

(𝐴) = 𝑃 ( 𝐵 1 ∩ 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 2 ∩ 𝐴 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐵 𝑛 ∩ 𝐴)
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) = 𝑃 ( 𝐵 1 ) 𝑃 ( 𝐴 | 𝐵 1 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 2 ) 𝑃 ( 𝐴 | 𝐵 2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 𝑛) 𝑃 ( 𝐴 | 𝐵 𝑛)
𝑛

𝑃(𝐴) = ∑ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵 𝑖 )
𝑖=1

So Proven

Example Question Incident Total / Opportunity Total

1. Three foreign ships A, B, C held a snapper fishing competition. Opportunity

foreign ship A managed to catch 0.6 snapper. Ship opportunities foreigner B
managed to get 0.4 snapper and the chance of a foreign ship C got 0.3 snapper
fish. Suppose in a boat race foreign A Which selected win is 0.8, if boat foreign
B Which The chosen one wins 0.6, and if the chosen one wins the foreign ship
C 0.4. So how much opportunity happen boat Which win in race?

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 Answer!
For example:
N: boat Which win in race
A: the event that foreign ship A caught snapper
B: incident of foreign ship B getting snapper
C: incident boat foreign C get fish snapper

Completion
𝑃(𝑁) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝑁|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵). 𝑃(𝑁|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶). 𝑃(𝑁|𝐶)
= 0.6 ( 0.8 ) + 0.4 ( 0.6 ) + 0.3(0.4)
= 0.48 + 0.24 + 0.12
= 0.84
2. A fisherman sells 25% of the fish sold by the fisherman produced by ship A and
the rest produced by ship B. Fish produced boat A have opportunity attacked
disease as big as 2% while those produced by ship B have a chance of
contracting disease by 4%. If someone buys fish from a fisherman, how much?
opportunity he will get fish Which attacked disease?

Answer!
For example:
A = the event of buying fish produced by ship A
B = the event of purchasing fish produced by ship B
C = incident bought it the fish in ship production C
𝑃 ( ) = 25% = 0.25
𝑃 ( ) = 75% = 0.75
𝑃 ( | 𝐴 ) = 2% = 0.02
𝑃 ( | 𝐵 ) = 4% = 0.04
Completion
𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐶|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵). 𝑃(𝐶|𝐵)
= 0.25(0.02) + 0.75(0.04)
= 0.005 + 0.03
= 0.035
3. In something factory there is 3 fruit machine (that is M 1 ,M 2 ,M 3 ) who does it
function similar. m 1 produce 20% from all over product, m 2 produce

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 30% of all products, and M 3 produces 50% of all products. From experience is
known that M 1 yields 4% product disabled, M 2 produce 3% product
disabled, And m 3 produce 5% product disabled.
A product Which generated factory That in take in a way random. How
much
the opportunity product the disabled?
Answer!
For example
𝐴 = incident took it product disabled
𝑀 𝑗 = event took it product Which generated machine
𝑆 = all product Which generated by third machineIs
known:
𝑃 𝑀₁) = 20% = 0.2
(𝑀₂) = 30% = 0.3
(𝑀₃) = 50% = 0.5

(𝐴|𝑀₁) = 4% = 0.04
(𝐴|𝑀₂) = 3% = 0.03
(𝐴|𝑀₃) = 5% = 0.05
Completion :
(𝐴) = 𝑃 𝑀₁) 𝑃(𝐴|𝑀₁) + 𝑃(𝑀₂) 𝑃(𝐴|𝑀₂) + 𝑃(𝑀₃) 𝑃(𝐴| 𝑀₃)
(𝐴) = 0.2× 0.04 + 0.3× 0.03 + 0.5× 0.05
= 0.008 + 0.009 + 0.025
= 0.042
So opportunity picking up the product disabled is 0.042

B. Rule Bayes
Bayes' rule was proposed by an English Presbyterian minister in 1763 named Thomas
Bayes. Bayes' rule was later refined by Laplace. Bayes' rule is used to calculate the
probability of an event occurring based on the influence obtained from observations. This
theory explains the relationship between the probability of an event (say A) occurring with
the condition that another event (say X) has occurred. And the probability of event X
occurring provided that event A has occurred. This rule is based on the principle that
additional information can improve opportunities.
Suppose you have two boxes, namely box I and box II. In box I there are 10 balls
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consisting of 3 red balls and 7 white balls, while in box II there are 15 balls consisting of 5
 red balls and 10 white balls. If the balls are put together in a bucket and one ball is taken at
random without looking and it turns out to be red, the probability will be determined that the
ball originally came from box I. Because in total there are 25 balls consisting of 10 balls
from box I and 15 balls from box II. Of the 25 balls, 8 balls are red and 17 balls are white.
For example, event B is the event of getting a red ball and event A is the event of getting
a ball from box I. The desired conditional probability is:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ B)
P ( A|B ) =
𝑃 (𝐵)

Figure I Relationship between Sets B, A and𝐴c

Event B can be written as a combination of two separate events, namely B ∩ A and B ∩ 𝐴c so
that:
B = (B ∩ A) ∪ (B ∩ 𝐴c )
And meaningful
P(B) = P(B ∩ A) ∪ P(B ∩ 𝐴c )
as a result
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ B) 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ A)
P ( A|B ) = 𝑃 (𝐵) P(B ∩ A) + P(B ∩ 𝐴c )

And earned
3
P(B ∩ A) =25
5
P(B ∩ 𝐴c ) =25
So that
3
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ A) 25 3
P ( A|B ) = P(B ∩ A) + P(B ∩ 𝐴c )= 3 5 =8
+
25 25

In the form of Bayes' theorem, this can be expressed as

P ( B | A ) P (A)
P(A|B) =𝑃 ( 𝐵|𝐴) 𝑃 𝐴) + P ( B | 𝐴c ) 𝑃 (𝐴c )
3 10
)( ) (
10 25
= 3 10 5 15
( )( ) + ( )( )
10 25 15 25

3
= 7
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Theorem I:
Let { A, 𝐴c } be a set of events which is a simple partition of the sample space S with P(A) ≠ 0.
Suppose B is an arbitrary event in S with P(A) ≠ 0 then it applies

P ( B | A ) P (A)
P(A|B) =𝑃 ( 𝐵|𝐴) 𝑃 𝐴) + P ( B | 𝐴c ) 𝑃 (𝐴c )

Where :

 P(A|B) is the probability of event A occurring, if event B has occurred

 P(B|A) is the probability of event B occurring, if event A has occurred
 P(A) is the probability of event A
 P(B) is the probability of event B
 P(B| 𝐴c ) is the probability of event B occurring if the event 𝐴c has occurred

Example I
Suppose that in a population there are equal numbers of men and women. In this population
10% of men and 5% of women are color blind. A color blind person is selected at random.
What is the probability that a man will be selected?
Solution:

Probability tree diagram:

The population is divided into two mutually exclusive subsets, namely men (event L) and
women (event P). We will look for opportunities for men to be selected who are color blind
(BW). By using Bayes' theorem we obtain
P ( BW | L) P (L)
P (L|BW) =𝑃 ( 𝐵𝑊|𝐿) 𝑃 (𝐿) + P ( BW | 𝑃) 𝑃 (𝑃)

( 0,05)(0,5)
=
( 0,05)(0,5) + ( 0,0025)(0,5)
2500
= 8
2625
 20
=
21
In general, Bayes' theorem is stated in the following theorem.
Theorem II:
Let { 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , …, 𝐴𝑛 } be a set of events which is a sample space constraint S with P(Ai) ≠ 0 for
i = 1,2, …, n . Suppose B is an arbitrary event in S with P(B) ≠ 0 then for k = 1,2, ..., n it
applies

Example II:
In a laboratory there are 3 cages of mice. Cage I contained two brown mice and 3 white
mice, cage II contained four brown mice and 2 white mice and cage III contained 5 brown
mice and 5 white mice. A cage is chosen at random and a mouse is chosen at random from that
cage. If the selected mouse is white, what is the probability that the selected mouse comes
from cage I?
Solution:
The probability tree diagram that can be created is

P ( W | I) P (I)
P(I|W) =
𝑃 ( W | I) 𝑃 (𝐼) + P ( W | 𝐼𝐼) 𝑃 (𝑊|𝐼𝐼𝐼) 𝑃(𝐼𝐼𝐼)
3 1
( 5)(3)
= 3 1 2 1 5 1
( 5)(3) + ( 6)(3)+ ( 10)(3)

1
5
= 43
90
18
=
43
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 CHAPTER III
CLOSING
A. Conclusion

Total Odds are accepted odds and refer to the total put outs and assists just. Or
more in short that is To use For look for opportunity Which difficult determined in a
way direct.
Theorem
If events 𝐵1, 𝐵2, … , 𝐵𝑛 is something restrictions (partition) from room sample 𝑆 with
𝑃(𝐵𝑖) ≠ 0 for 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛 so For every incident A member 𝑆
𝑛 𝑛

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) = ∑ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 𝑖 ∩ 𝐴 ) = ∑ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵 𝑖 )
𝑖=1 𝑖=1

Theorem Bayes taken from Name the discoverer ie Thomas Bayes Which
is a statistician, English philosopher and clergyman.
Theorem 2 :
For example, incident 𝐵1, 𝐵2, … , 𝐵𝑛 is a
constraint of the sample space
𝑆 with 𝑃 ( 𝐵 𝑖 ) ≠ 0 for 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛 For example A something incident anyin 𝑆
with 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0 .

So,
𝑃(𝐵𝑟 ∩ 𝐴) 𝑃 (𝐵𝑟 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑟 )
𝑃 (𝐵𝑟 |𝐴) = =
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ∩ 𝐴) ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )

B. Suggestion

Suggestion Which can we convey is use it probability This For needs which good
and beneficial for yourself or many people. Never- times become polytheists with this
knowledge. Everything that will happen is sure of that all has been planned by Allah
SWT.
Thereby paper this is us convey, Hopefully beneficial for Which study it. Here we
realize wholeheartedly, that in writing papers This is still far from perfection. This is
due to limited capabilities we. We expect criticism and suggestions to improve our
paper in the future. Thereby and accept love.

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 LIST REFERENCES

The one. 2021, November 4. Total Probability and Bayes' Theorem - Introduction to
StatisticsMathematics [Video]. YouTube . https://youtu.be/rjnj6nb0uMw
PramestiDita. 2021, April 5. PROBSTAT | Practice Questions and Answers:
Bayes' Theorem. [Video]. YouTube . https://youtu.be/sGHKZFwJLR4
Walpole, RE, et al. (2012). Probability & Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 9th ed.
Boston: Pearson Education, Inc.
EducationMathematicsAUmrah18. 2021, January 12. Examples of total probability
questions andTheorem bayes (source: make it yourself). [Video].
YouTube . https://youtu.be/GWYzUT-AU8g

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