The School of Washington

Journal
Volume II No. 7 November - December 2011
A GWU Student Publication
Schoolofwashington.org
A Product of TSWCN
- Table of Contents -
Economics & Finance
Science & Philosophy
Politics
Exploring Bankings Future........................................................................................................................4
The Economic Beauty of Two Cities...........................................................................................................4
Drug Courts: Perhaps Not the Best Solution...............................................................................................5
Why Libertarians Hate the Fed..................................................................................................................6
Determinism, Oppression and the Individual in Marxism: Sartre Contra Engels.......................................7
Reppin for the Team? An Odd Way to Show GW Pride...........................................................................8
A Step Back is a Step Forward....................................................................................................................9
Feeling The (Desert) Heat: US Troop Withdrawal From Iraq....................................................................9
Is Ignorance Truly American?....................................................................................................................10
An Indictment of Dysfunction...................................................................................................................11
European Union Instability is SelI-Inficted..............................................................................................12
Sports
Will the NBA Lockout Ever End?............................................................................................................13
Predicting the Destinations of Major League Baseballs Leading Free Agents........................................13
The Misguided Coverage and Concern of Penn States Football Scandal................................................14
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The School of Washington Journal
Economics and Finance
Exploring
Bankings Future
By Jiani Zong
The second round of the European debt
crisis, Occupy Wall Street, and the credit
downgrading of several developing coun-
tries have all been catalysts for the ongo-
ing transformation of the banking sector.
In addition to the macro environment that
leads to tighter regulatory control, rapid
technology growth, heightened customer
expectation, and reduction on entrance
barrier will undoubtedly reshape the fnan-
cial service industry.
Several years ago, a scholarly journal
forecasted the trend under a increasingly
intense regulation control. It pointed out
that retail banks will most likely turn in the
best performance of all banks, given that
they provide a full range of services, even
including fnancial planning. In the mean-
time, the terms brokerage and invest-
ment banking/insurance will be used in
describing an activity, rather than a com-
pany.
Now lets shift our attention to the real
world and fnd out the credibility oI this
assertion. Wells Fargo is one example.
Headquartered in San Francisco, it has
been growing signifcantly over the last
decade, and was recently ranked one of
the 'Top 20 biggest public companies in
the world by Forbes. For many, it has a
reputation of simply being a commercial
bank, while today, when one goes on its
website, he will fnd almost every service
offered. There are of course traditional
banking practices such as the community
banking branch that deals with savings
and the fnancial advisor branch that deals
with wealth management. The new Wells
Fargo Securities (after its acquisition of
Wachovia Securities) is the full service in-
vestment banking arm for the Well Fargo
Corporation and has greatly strengthened
the investment banking sector of the corpo-
ration. Similarly, M&T Bank, well known
for its commercial banking services, has
a continually rising investment banking
group. I happened to visit the companys
headquarters last week, and the biggest
take-away during my visit is that its real
estate investment department has an al-
lowance fund that is almost twice above
the market average. In a market where
borrowing rate is at a record low, a high al-
lowance fund would surely accelerate the
development of its investment sector.
One of the biggest reasons for this bank-
ing-going-comprehensive trend is the
transformation of customers. With the
aging baby boomers entering retirement,
the fnancial needs oI Generation X are
changing as their age increases as well.
Their fnancial budget is more fexible
compared to earlier years, which leads to
the fact that they have more free money
to lend to the bank for investment. For
the younger generations, technology has a
more central role. With a growing demand
Ior fexibility, accessibility, and personal-
ization, fnancial services must accelerate
their use oI technology to eIfciently meet
needs. In summary, customers today tend
to favor a more personalized and value-
added service. They prefer stronger and
more personal relationships with the bank.
As the diversifcation oI customer groups
become more distinct and the gap between
demands from each group keeps growing,
institutions that provide more comprehen-
sive and personal services will succeed
and lead the industry.
The Economic
Beauty of Two
Cities
By Julian Gindi
Cities are a true wonder of the economic
process. They represent the symbiosis of
innovation and eIfciency. As residents oI
Washington DC, we are deeply entwined
with the Iabric oI the city. The past fIty
years have shown an increasing number of
people in both developed and developing
countries moving from rural areas to cit-
ies. The future will show only more migra-
tion and will highlight the role cities play
in global innovation. As we stare climate
change in the face, cities will also prove to
be the single most useful breeding ground
Ior energy eIfciency and general innova-
tion.
The formation of a city is a sublime event.
It forms out of the simple necessity for
frms, workers and inputs to be close to
one another. As frms are able to lower
their costs by locating near inputs and
workers, more frms will move in to capi-
talize on the labor pool which will in turn
cause a reinforcing effect that will see total
population increase. Although this is an
oversimplifcation, it highlights some key
elements in a citys formation. Much like
the world itself, cities have to make due
with a large population and fnite resourc-
es. This reason, in itself, is why we must
look towards cities for ideas when moving
into the coming decades.
In addition to solving many practical en-
vironmental dilemmas, cities provide a
unique opportunity for developing coun-
tries. Cities provide jobs and wages that
are unrivaled by their agricultural coun-
terparts. While not true for every situation,
migration to the city usually increases ones
wage and life satisfaction. A key policy for
the government of developing economies
is reducing the cost associated with a move
to the city. Removing barriers to migration
will eventually increase overall GDP and
the livelihood of its citizens.
Cities face many issues that require out
November - December 2011
4
5
of the box solutions to solve. Everything
from the increase in demand for resources
to architectural problems such as build-
ing tunnels under lakes require innovation
while using as few resources as possible.
As stated previously, this mirrors a trend
we are observing globally. As the popula-
tion rises and resources continue to dimin-
ish, we must learn how to accommodate
the increase while consuming less. While
cities themselves may represent the so-
lution to this problem, it will be equally
useful to apply urban innovations to the
world as a whole. Locating communities
near workplaces and resources will prove
to be a crucial concept to adopt. By reduc-
ing transportation costs and time, there
will be less waste and greater eIfciency.
By creating economies of scale (the con-
cept oI frms creating more products using
progressively less resources) in every sec-
tor, we will be able to preserve our natural
resources and feed the world.
While cities are not the be-all solution to
our global problems, they do stand as an
example on how to deal with them. By fo-
cusing on easing the transition from agrar-
ian economies to their urban counterparts
and creating eIfcient economies oI scale
in resource collection and distribution, we
will be able to access and solve many of
the problems we will face in the coming
years.
Drug Courts:
Perhaps Not the
Best Solution
By Paula Costa
While conducting research for a policy
brief on drug courts, I came across an
Economist article that surprised me. Its
title was Drug courts: Stay out of jail
clean, and its caption The best way
to keep drug offenders from returning to
prison was an assertion that I thought
could not realistically be defended. Af-
ter reading the article I understood why
the assertion was made: it defended drug
courts by citing absolute gains and by
leaving out comparative analyses on al-
ternatives to drug courts and prison.
In policy analysis, opportunity costs must
be considered when deciphering the ben-
efts oI certain policies; ergo relative gains
are signifcant. It is diIfcult to describe the
gains of a policy absolutely because you
must weigh them against something rel-
evant. However, the author chose to com-
pare a prison sentence to a drug court com-
mitment simply, failing to mention how
and where the two still overlap. Further,
the article failed to mention any health-
centered, and not punitive, approaches to
treating addiction. For this reason I dis-
credit the author for writing with blind-
ers on he or she wrote this piece for the
sole purpose of portraying drug courts
in a positive light, intentionally fail-
ing to offer the reader any perspective.
So now I write to offer some perspective.
Drug courts were created in the late 1980s
in response to the increasing number of
drug arrests. Their primary goal is to use
judicial supervision, mandatory drug test-
ing, escalating sanctions and treatment to
reduce the number of drug-offense incar-
cerations and to stop the abuse of alco-
hol and other drugs and related criminal
activity. However, the justice system was
designed to resolve legal disputes, not
public health issues. Drug courts, like the
justice system in general, take a punitive
and not health-centered approach to the
issue of addiction. For example: Relapse
is penalized with incarceration; 33-75
of people dont complete drug court and
are sentenced for their original offense,
frequently in more severe terms. Further-
more, the average time spent in jail for opt-
ing out of drug court 55 days is nearly
identical to the average time spent in jail
for people who complete a drug court
program: 51 days. In essence, drug courts
bring more people into the justice system,
instead of preventing contact with it in the
frst place, and still lead to incarceration.
But are they a cost-effective allocation of
state funds? Judicial supervision does not
lead to greater success in treatment, nor do
drug courts lower recidivism rates more
than intense supervision programs that
Iocus on treatment do (8.7 versus 18).
Catering to the Kempt, The Unkempt o the Urbane
The Economist article also mentions that
for every dollar spent on drug courts,
$2.21 returns to taxpayers in benefts Irom
reduced crime; what it doesn`t mention
is that intense treatment programs return
$21 in benefts to communities that`s
nearly ten times more fnancial returns.
As Ior the benefciaries, drug courts Iail
to offer treatment to those who most need
it and do not beneft all those who join it
equally. Only 7 oI drug users qualiIy Ior
drug court: those charged with lesser of-
fenses, no criminal history, and no previ-
ous violence charges. People of color are
more likely to have a felony conviction at
the time of their arrest and are thus likely to
be excluded from the program. In this way
drug courts congest the justice system with
petty drug charges like marijuana posses-
sion (a substance that cannot cause death
by overdose and rarely causes addiction)
and exempt people more heavily involved
with drugs (and more serious drugs) from
the program. In other words, drug courts
cherry pick those most likely to suc-
ceed in their program in order to secure
future funding. In addition, African Amer-
icans are less likely to complete the pro-
gram than whites, and older participants
have the best outcomes in the program.
This data seems to indicate that drug courts
are actually not the best way to keep
drug offenders from returning to prison.
The School of Washington Journal
6
November - December 2011
Science & Philosophy
Libertarians, in general, do not like the
Federal Reserve. In fact, many libertarians
sympathetic to the Occupy Wall Street
movement have turned up with signs that
read DOWN WITH THE FED. Interest-
ingly, many onlookers fnd this libertarian
position to be untenable and even extreme.
I think with a proper understanding of the
theoretical links between the libertarian
commitments to certain basic legal prin-
ciples, economic principles and invest-
ment principles, this disdain would slowly
wither away.
The general libertarian criticism is aimed
at the central bank and fractional reserve
banking. Fractional reserve banking is a
form of banking that allows banks to create
loans and keep only a fraction of the de-
posits on hand. The amount of reserves
required to be kept by banks is known as
a liquidity ratio in the United States and
is set by the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. So if the liquidity
ratio is 20, then a bank must keep 1/5 oI
the deposits made by customers on hand to
ensure normal withdrawal is allowed. Thus
if the total amount of deposits a bank has is
$100, the bank must keep $20 at minimum
to ensure its liquidity ratio obligation.
The general criticism is this: central
banks serve to facilitate the granting of
a privilege that allows property rights to
be superseded. When property rights are
violated through an institution, market dis-
tortions occur, which in this case result in
business cycles, uncontrolled expansion
of credit and the derivative malinvestment
and unproductive investment.
Let us unpack this a little. First let us begin
from the property right violation that oc-
curs when central banks facilitate fraction-
al reserve banking. We start with a young
man, let us call him Jarvis, putting money
into his bank account. He puts in $100 into
his bank account and the liquidity ratio is
again 20. So the bank keeps $20 oI the
$100 and loans out the other $80. How-
ever, the bank still has an obligation to Jar-
vis if he wants to withdraw all of his $100
initially deposited, and thus essentially,
the money supply has increased by $80 (so
from Jarviss initial $100 deposit, there is
now $180 in the money supply the $100
the bank is liable to him for and the $80 the
bank loaned out).
Magic, right? Yes, in that this is a trick that
involves some kind of malicious decep-
tion. For a libertarian, there are two things
wrong with this picture. Firstly, when the
bank extends credit to some borrower (let
us call him Rob), the bank grants tempo-
rary ownership of the credited funds to
Rob whilst simultaneously guaranteeing
Jarviss ownership over his own funds. It is
simply impossible for both Rob and Jarvis
to have ownership over the same resources
not in a legal sense, i.e., that Jarvis and
Rob did not agree to a contractual agree-
ment between each other of lender and
borrower but in a frmly metaphysical
sense: nobody can have a property right
over the same thing at the same time. Even
when people share ownership of some-
thing, i.e., a dollar, they do not both own
the $1 dollar bill itself: they own, say, 50
cents each. The basic proposition that two
or more people cannot own the same thing
at the same time unless there is a shared
ownership is a presupposition of prop-
erty rights theory and forms a fundamental
metaphysical and ontological commitment
for a libertarian.
Furthermore, since the bank is only re-
quired to keep a fraction of the reserves,
dependent on a liquidity ratio, the bank
cannot Iulfll its obligations to all deposi-
tors. In a free market where money is not
created out of thin air (which it essentially
is under fractional reserve banking), banks
would be required to keep 100 reserves
or, in other words, they would be required
to fully meet their obligations at all times,
even in the event of a bank run. If a bank
cannot meet its contractual obligations
(which it cannot do without a central bank
under a fractional reserve system), then as
Hans-Hermann Hoppe points out, the bank
must be regarded (from the outset) as in-
herently bankrupt.
Note that even if Rob and Jarvis consented
to this kind of contractual agreement, i.e.,
that the bank would be allowed to take
20 oI Jarvis`s deposit and lend out the
rest, there would still be a fundamental vi-
olation of property rights. Simply because
two parties agree to a contract does not
make that contract valid if Rob and Jar-
vis agreed to exchange pink unicorns for
pretty blue baby dinosaurs, this would be
constitute a valid contract. Contracts must
refect a real state oI aIIairs and a trans-
fer of property that exists and is able to be
transferred, legally, from one party to an-
other. Consent is not the sole criterion of a
valid contract.
The other thing wrong with this picture is
the increase in money supply created by
the lending activity of a bank. As I said
before, if Jarvis deposits into the bank and
the bank lends out $80 to Rob, since both
parties have some kind of ownership claim
on the resources, there is essentially $180
now in the money supply ($80 more than
there was previously). Since the $80 credit
extension to Rob was not accompanied by
a decrease in Jarviss $100 deposit, the ex-
tra money is created out of thin air. This
increases the amount of credit available in
the market not because a level of savings
has been attained to warrant investment
to a certain degree but simply because
Why Libertarians
Hate The Fed
By Raj Patel
/
a banker decided to create money out of
nothing. With an increase in the supply of
money, the price of credit (interest rate)
drops; as credit rates drop, investors act
as if there has been an increase in pres-
ent savings, which signifes a preIerence
for future consumption on the part of the
public and thus start to invest in projects
accordingly.
Yet, as the old dictum goes, ex nihilo nihil
ft nothing comes Irom nothing. Since
there are no actual savings and the drop in
the interest rate is simply a consequence of
an increase in money supply, the interest
rates drop below a natural rate or equi-
librium that it should be at, which refects
actual savings and thus actual preferences.
This decrease in interest rate below a natu-
ral rate matters because it signals public
come from the ability for the bank to lend
beyond its capacity through fractional re-
serve banking. The banks ability to lend
beyond capacity is a privilege extended to
it by a governmental institution, namely,
the Federal Reserve. None of this would
be possible if the Federal Reserve did not
provide the bank with the necessary funds
(such as short-term loans) to meet its ob-
ligations. In a competitive free market,
fractional reserve banking would not be
possible because 100 reserve banking
would be required by law and a central
bank would not exist.
(or consumer) preferences to the investors
and thus plays a determinative role in the
structure of the investment activities. Thus
investment will necessarily be malinvest-
ment because those who are investing in
this or that production are misled by un-
naturally low interest rates. Since lower
interest rates signal a high level of invest-
ment, investment tends to be directed at
capital-intensive production but since
actual levels of savings are much less than
is indicated by the interest rate, there are
not enough resources to complete such
capital-intensive projects. This is malin-
vestment.
What does this have to do with the Fed-
eral Reserve? All of these evils (malin-
vestment, excessive extension of credit,
violation of property rights, and so on)
to give vent to high moral indignation
at such infamies. Unfortunately all this
conveys is only what everyone knows,
namely that these institutions of antiq-
uity are no longer in accord with our
present-day condition and our senti-
ments, which these conditions determine.
Slavery, as Engels sees it, is just a form
of economic progress as well as social
progress. Slaves were taken in war after
economic and technological conditions
were such that the slaves could be fed,
have tools provided for them and so on.
Previously, instead of taking slaves, the
victorious side of a battle or war would
simply kill those remaining. Now Engels
would see a life in slavery as progress
over death but, he cannot do so subjec-
tively, since he is not the slave he is talk-
ing about, or objectively, since he has no
system of a priori values at his disposal.
Even if we granted Engels that slavery
is progress, he has not escaped the prob-
lem of his determinism because now hu-
man oppression is not a choice. Instead it
simply appears to an oppressor because of
necessary economic forces. The oppres-
sor does not choose to oppress but merely
fnds himselI in the right economic and
technological conditions in which tak-
ing another human being as property and
using his forcefully appropriating his la-
bour is possible. This leads to yet a bigger
problem: now there is no class struggle.
Man no longer chooses freely in his situ-
ation, but is instead only a fact. There
is no longer an oppressor or one to op-
press, just an arrangement of facts.
We have erased any value in the prole-
tariats cause it is neither just nor unjust
and so now there is no class struggle,
simply sudden jolts at the moment when
the economic organization collapses inter-
nally. The responsibility of the bourgeoi-
sie in terms of their oppression has van-
ished, as it is simply the byproduct of the
economic and technical conditions of their
historical situation. Quite simply speak-
ing, the lack of human subjectivity and
strict determinism in Marxist thought is
a plunging anchor hindering its progress.
Marxism, in its determinism and gener-
alization of groups, has ignored the fact
that a persons historical situation helps
condition him but not every person un-
der the same conditions is the same, nor
is every generalized group the same across
history. As Sartre puts it in his Search
Catering to the Kempt, The Unkempt o the Urbane
Determinism,
Oppression and
the Individual in
Marxism: Sartre
Contra Engels
By Christian Geoghehan
Coiled in the heart of Marxist thought is,
as Jean-Paul Sartre called it in his Note-
books for an Ethics, a perpetual oscil-
lation between mechanistic determinism
and dialectical materialism. To wit, it is
not that the fnal classless society oI Marx-
ism should happen, it is what will hap-
pen. Economic conditions are the motor
through which history is made, and the
constant progress of societies through dia-
lectical materialism necessitates both the
growth and decay of the epochs economic
order. This determinism, however, leads to
an important problem in Marxist thought
as it erases all consideration of values.
For example, as Frederick Engels writes
in his work Anti-Dhring, It is very
easy to inveigh against slavery and
The School of Washington Journal
for a Method, Valry is a petit bour-
geois intellectual, no doubt. But not ev-
ery petit bourgeois intellectual is Valry.
If Marxism can realize that oppression is
a subjective, human fact, that man freely
oppresses man in his situation, it can
gain back the true struggle of classes,
which are composed of free individuals.
When Marxists realize that oppression is
other as the Other. This is scarcity: Scar-
city must be seen as that which makes us
into these particular individuals produc-
ing this particular History, says Sartre
in his Critique of Dialectical Reason.
A Marxism that incorporates a theoreti-
cal existential subjectivity will be better
able to answer the ultimate question posed
by Lenin in 1902: what is to be done?
a subjective human fact and that tyrants
freely oppress masses, they can bring back
the theoretical site oI class confict. Class
confict, composed oI Iree individuals, is
a far more realistic view of how history
proceeds. Furthermore, with class con-
fict posited in terms oI a struggle between
free individuals, we now have another
theoretical tool to serve as an explana-
tory thesis as to why class struggles arise,
namely, what makes people see each
S
Reppin For the
Team? An Odd
Way to Show GW
Pride
By Jacqueline Drayer
Students at George Washington Uni-
versity arent known for our school
spirit. A quick glance at collegeprowler.
com tells you that. But whats really
strange about our university is the prolif-
eration of non-GW apparel on campus.
Sit in the Marvin Center any day of the
week and youll see plenty of people in
college sweatshirts and tees. Some are
emblazoned with The George Washing-
ton University but many also advertise for
schools like Harvard, Tulane and Berkeley.
For weeks I wondered why. At frst I as-
sumed the non-GW shirt wearers were
graduate students sporting clothes from
their alma maters. But Thurstons el-
evator Irequently flls with kids in these
same sweatshirts. Theory obliterated.
Then I asked my friends what they thought:
some suggested the clothes came from
family members (e.g. a parent who went
to Michigan or a brother at U Penn), while
others said they bought shirts as souvenirs
from schools she visited. The general senti-
ment was if you have it, wear it regardless
of how they acquired the collegiate gear.
There may be a different and more inter-
esting causal explanation at work. This
involves a psychological analysis of the
effect that the lack of a football team
has on the psyche of the GW student.
BIRGing and CORFing: these two funny
sounding concepts can be found in social
psychology literature. The idea behind
BIRGing (Basking In Refected Glory)
and CORFing (Cutting OII Refected
Failure) is best illustrated via sports.
When you watch your favorite sports
team win a game, youre likely to say,
We won. This is BIRGing. If that same
team were to lose, youd be more likely
to say, they lost, which is CORFing.
In reality, of course, you helped the team
lose just as much as you helped them
win in other words, not at all. Yet you
include yourself only in the teams vic-
tory. According to social psychology
theory, we want to identify with groups
that boost our self-esteem and social
status. Winning makes us look and feel
good. Losing makes us look and feel bad.
Researcher Robert Cialdini conducted
a groundbreaking study into BIRGing
and CORFing in 1976. Cialdini found
that not only were college students more
likely to use we after their schools
football team won, but the students were
also more likely to wear their universi-
tys clothing in the days after the victory.
GW doesnt have a football team like
my own tongue-in-cheek t-shirt says,
were still undefeated. Could this some-
how relate to our lower rate of school
shirt wearing? It seems plausible; many
schools spirit is tied to their football team.
November - December 2011
Of course, this doesnt explain all the Ivy
League schools shirts people dont wear
Yale or Princeton sweatshirts because of
the athletics. However, wearing such a shirt
associates you with an intellectual, high-
achieving organization still BIRGing.
Nonetheless, GW does have a basketball
team thats had its share of national at-
tention. Despite this, Tulane, which is not
ranked higher than GW in athletics or aca-
demics, still pops up on students clothing
including in the days following the GW
mens basketball victory at the home opener.
Could the truth be that we come to this
school for many reasons the city, the pos-
sibilities, the weather (is that last one just
me?) and dont necessarily feel a strong
aIfnity Ior the institution oI GW itselI?
There are other explanations of course:
maybe we as a school identify more with
Hunter rain boots than the place we come
to receive our education. Perhaps only the
optimist would concede we arent sub-
consciously trying to bolster our feelings
oI selI-worth through group identifca-
tion. Finally, maybe we really do BIRG
and CORF here, but instead of identify-
ing with our school, we identify with
political parties and candidates instead.
Though I still think it is bizarre that students
wear clothing from many other colleges, in
the end, it doesnt really matter. We must
like GW a decent amount after all, we
chose it over schools we wear clothing from
we just have an odd way of showing it.
9
Catering to the Kempt, The Unkempt o the Urbane
Politics
A Step Back is a
Step Forward
By Madison Noble
The current situation in Syria is reminis-
cent of the violence that occurred in Libya
in recent months. There have been protests
from civilians seeking a regime change, in
hopes of ousting a tyrannical leader and
ushering in a true democracy. President
Bashar al-Assad has violently suppressed
the uprisings, causing a multitude of casu-
alties in the guise of seeking to maintain
stability, when in fact he desperately wants
to retain control over his hemorrhaging
country. Activists in the city of Homs have
suffered the highest civilian death toll
since the uprising broke out in March, and
throughout the country activists are calling
on world leaders to impart sanctions on
Assads regime and to reject his legitimacy.
In a break from the Bush administrations
Middle Eastern policies, the Obama ad-
ministrations policies, led by Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton, have been more
thoughtful by allowing multinational or-
ganizations such as NATO, the UN, and
the Arab League to take the lead. The
United States has called for al-Assad to
step down and is using sanctions to iso-
late the current Syrian regime, reject-
ing direct intervention. Clinton cited a
variety of factors as reasons, such as the
perceived risk to US forces, the need to
defend American allies, and to keep for-
eign supplies oI oil fowing. The US has
recalled its diplomatic personnel from
Syria for safety reasons, but has sought out
Arab League leaders to push Arab coun-
tries to use sanctions against al-Assad.
The Arab League, in a departure from
its usual non-interventionist ways, has
decided to suspend Syrias membership
and impose sanctions over its violent
eight-month crackdown on protestors. In
retaliation, al-Assad supporters attacked
the Turkish, Saudi, and French embassies,
infuriating leaders and strengthening their
opposition to the current Syrian regime.
While Saudi Arabia has long been a sup-
porter of Syria, for fear of the growing
power of Iran, it has been a leader in sup-
porting stronger measures against Syria.
The Arab League is planning on imposing
further economic and political sanctions
and has called for all its member states
to withdraw their ambassadors from the
country. While al-Assad enjoys support
among minority groups, such as members
of the Alawite sect, to which he belongs,
and Christians, who fear sectarian violence
or a Sunni Muslim dominated govern-
ment if Assad were to be toppled, increas-
ing political and economic isolation will
make it diIfcult Ior him to sustain power.
President Bashar al-Assads regime is ex-
periencing internal turmoil coupled with
international sanctions and denouncements
of legitimacy, leading to an increasingly
unstable country. The US and its allies
have taken an active role in denouncing al-
Assad and as each day passes, al-Assads
grip on legitimacy and power loosens and
the future of Syria becomes more uncer-
tain. If al-Assads regime were to topple,
in line with Mubarak`s Egypt and Gaddaf`s
Libya, another country would be added to
the list of governments-in-progress, caus-
ing the USs precarious position in the
Middle East to become even more uncer-
tain. As the withdrawal date of American
troops from Iraq nears closer and the de-
crease of troops in Afghanistan continues,
the USs physical presence in the Middle
East will lessen and regional players
will be forced to take a more active role.
It is in the USs best interest to maintain
amicable relations with its current Middle
Eastern allies such as Saudi Arabia, and to
nurture emerging democracies in Egypt,
Libya and Tunisia, in addition to supporting
democratic activists in countries like Syr-
ia. The US needs to take a step back from
regional politics, allowing Arab nations to
take responsibility and control over their
own conficts, but it also needs to remain
a friend and ally to nations who respect
the rights of their people. It is imperative
that the US supports the Syrian protestors
without using force. Up to this point, the
USs stance on the situation in Syria has
been moderate and non-reactionary, prov-
ing that US foreign policy is moving to-
wards a soft power approach as opposed
to the previous hard power approach in the
Middle East. This approach will hopefully
earn the US more international respect as
a facilitator of change and a supporter of
democratic movements, as opposed to an
intervening force when the climate in for-
eign nations does not match US desires.
As more dictators fall to popular move-
ments in the Middle East, the question re-
mains as to which regional nation will be-
come the dominant player, and the answer
will not be as obvious as it was before.
Feeling the
(Desert) Heat: US
Troop Withdrawal
From Iraq
By Michelle Shevin-
Coetzee
Since the United States invaded Iraq in
March oI 2003, its goals and the invasion`s
consequential effects have been hotly de-
bated on both sides of the political aisle.
President Obamas recent announcement
of intention to withdraw all US troops
from Iraq by the end of this year has drawn
The School of Washington Journal
10
relief from servicemen and women and
their families. It has also drawn sharp criti-
cism from many others, including some
2012 presidential contenders. While the
latter may speculate that a US troop with-
drawal is a premature move, it is important
to keep in mind that this deadline was set
in 2008 by the Bush administration. Presi-
dent Obama is abiding by the US-Iraq Sta-
tus of Forces Agreement, which calls for
a full US troop withdrawal from Iraq by
the end oI 2011; however, greater Ireedom
of action should have been retained and
subsequent compromises achieved. Sum-
mertime Negotiations with Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki regarding whether or not
to have a few thousand US troops remain
in Iraq as trainers collapsed over the con-
dition of legal immunity for US troops.
Many analysts speculate that the sudden
drawdown is a political strategy to re-earn
credit Irom Democrats beIore the 2012
election. While Obama might be feeling
the heat from his own party about a war
that he once called dumb, it is imperative
that the US not renege on its commitments
until the objective of ensuring a secure and
stable Iraq has been accomplished. Al-
though there will no longer be boots on
the ground, the Obama administration
emphasizes that around 16,000 US diplo-
mats and contractors will remain in Iraq.
This will allow for American soft power
to assist the Iraqis as they make the tran-
sition from an observer to the sole actor.
It is too early, however, to predict the exact
future of Iraq. Many wonder about what
role external infuences in the region will
play in the country. In a recent interview
with CNNs State of the Union, Secre-
tary of State Hillary Clinton warned that,
No one, most particularly Iran, should
miscalculate about our continuing com-
mitment to and with the Iraqis going for-
ward. The US had blamed Iran earlier
this year for a number of attacks carried
out by Shiite militia against American
troops in southern Iraq. For some time,
Washington has been concerned that Iran,
a Shiite theocracy, could Iuel conficts
between the Iraqi Shiite government and
its Sunni minority. Those effects would
not only be felt in Iraq, but could also
serve as harbingers for further violence
in an already tense Middle East fueled
by the Arab Spring. US oIfcials believe
that Iran sees Iraq as a stage on which to
mount attacks against American interests
and some suspect that Iran will therefore
try to take some credit for the withdraw-
al of nearly all 39,000 American troops.
The conclusion of a war should not be
dictated by a set timeline, but rather by an
assessment of the progress that has been
made in the securing and stabilizing of the
country. As of now, the US appears to be
relying on its robust presence in the region
to shield Iraq from possible threats. As a
response to the breakdown of negotiations,
the US has drawn up an alternative strat-
egy to keep a strong military presence in
the region in case of a collapse of the Iraqi
government or an intervention by Iran.
The US is looking to develop further mili-
tary ties with the six countries compris-
ing the Gulf Cooperation Council Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United
Arab Emirates, and Oman. Strategically, it
makes sense for the US to increase combat
troop forces in neighboring countries, par-
ticularly in Kuwait. This would allow for
a greater degree of sovereignty in Iraq, but
also serve as a reserve in case American
troops are needed immediately. The US is
trying to cultivate a new security archi-
tecture for the region which, if success-
ful, would have the ability to amalgamate
air and naval patrols as well as missile de-
fense. This strategy will not only reiterate
the USs commitment to Iraq but will also
foster a strong and comprehensive rela-
tionship with crucial allies in the region.
What matters most is Americas commit-
ment to Iraq, both now and in the future. If
carefully implemented, this strategy could
serve as a framework for the future of Af-
ghanistan, as the US looks to wind down
the war there by the end oI 2014. Whether it
concerns Iraq or another country, Americas
promises should always match its actions.
November - December 2011
Is Ignorance Truly
American?
By Parth Chauhan
Being an American abroad has its perks;
everyone wants to get to know me, my
opinions are always appreciated, and I
am generally known as cool. However,
at the same time, our moniker of Ameri-
can brings with it negatives as well. In
the Netherlands, America is regarded si-
multaneously a promised land and a pa-
riah, a messiah and a murderer. There are
few Dutch people who would pass up an
opportunity to visit Washington, DC, and
yet the foreign policy formulated in the
city is almost always looked down upon.
It is our international relations that hurt us
the most. America is known as a nation
without regard for international law. Most
disturbingly, my fellow undergraduates at
the Universiteit van Amsterdam have the
horrible misconception that all Americans
know nothing about the world. To them
we are all a bunch of fat, ill-informed
capitalists, uncaring for the environment
and order. We cannot identify Iraq on
a map, we do not manage our fnances,
and we have no idea how negatively our
foreign policy affects the rest of world.
As a student from the United States, I am
looked at in a similarly polarized way.
Though my experiences with professors
and colleagues have been outstanding, I
fnd the US is oIten a target in my Confict
Studies class. In a class of around eighty
students from all over Holland, the men-
tion of Bush or Cheney is always followed
by a class-wide chortle, and multinational
companies like Exxon-Mobil are similarly
ridiculed. And yet, it was in this class of
international affairs students that I found
out that the Dutch criticisms of Americans
were actually quite reciprocal (that is to say,
they werent so globally conscious either)!
Our discussions in class often revolve
around the War on Terror and Nike and
Wal-Marts corporate responsibility to its
11
Catering to the Kempt, The Unkempt o the Urbane
An Indictment of
Dysfunction
By Scott Challeen
While politics and governance are inevi-
tably intertwined, there is a point where
politics must end so governing can begin.
The problem with Congress is there is a
sizable faction that does not understand
this concept, and that fundamental mis-
understanding has proven to be very dan-
gerous for our country. The institution of
Congress is intended to be a forum where
diverse ideas of policy representing the
opinions of different factions of the Ameri-
can people are contentiously debated, and
ultimately compromise is reached, ideally
yielding sensible policies composed of the
best ideas of both sides of the aisle. The
reason the current Congress has an un-
godly low approval rating is because only
the frst part oI that intended purpose is
happening the contentious debate and
not the part where compromise or sensible
solutions are reached. To understand why
that is, and why Washington is so polar-
ized today, you have to understand that
the fundamental force driving the current
Congress is not governance; it`s politics.
The seed of todays hyper-partisanship and
the hostile relationship between the White
House and Congressional Republicans
was planted the day Barack Obama was
sworn in as president. It was then that Re-
publicans in Congress made a calculated
producers. I thought it would be interest-
ing to hear the Dutch opinion of Royal
Dutch Shells human rights atrocities in
Nigeria. (A brief synopsis: Shell, in an
attempt to protect its oil production in
southern Nigeria, took to supporting gov-
ernment militias to raid villages and mas-
sacre populations.) However, my question
was met with blank stares the students
had no idea what I was talking about. Here
was a question posed to some of the most
educated youngsters in Amsterdam, about
one of the largest Dutch companies and its
tions provide increased cooperation and
dialogue. Even so, it seems that the op-
posite is occurring in regards to every-
day people. The citizens of states large
and small are losing sight of our global
neighbors and the plight of people from
other countries. In a globalized world,
nothing positive will come of Americans
caring only for Americans, Dutchmen
Ior Dutchmen; we depend on each other
more than ever in history. It is time that
we all start acting like it by taking the
time to understand our role in the world.
actions in one of the worlds most impor-
tant sectors, and no one knew what I was
talking about. It appeared the Dutch pride
in their international acumen was not as
warranted as they would have us believe.
The ignorance of the human rights atroci-
ties committed by the Shell in no way
validates Americas reputation. Rather, it
points to a far larger and more pressing
problem I feel is permeating in the West-
ern world. The world is becoming more
and more interconnected, as businesses
cross borders and international organiza-
ing with him, and he would have won in
a landslide again. Nothing scared Repub-
licans whose top priority was to unseat
Obama more than the thought of him run-
ning Reaganesque Morning In America
ads in 2012. So while the country might
have beneftted more had the two parties
worked together, politically it would have
been a lose-lose scenario for the GOP.
Their other option was to play the role of
legislative obstructionists. This is the route
they ultimately took, and it involved them
opposing Obama on just about every ma-
jor item on his agenda. This opposition is
not out of genuine ideological disagree-
ment. In fact, many of Obamas policies
were supported and even championed by
Republicans beIore he took oIfce and
implemented them himself. The motive
behind this was twofold. First, it was to
clearly contrast themselves with Obama
so that if the electorate is unhappy with
him come reelection time, they could of-
fer a sharply contrasting alternative, and
second, it was to bank on a slow economic
recovery to hinder his reelection prospects.
Politically speaking, Republicans running
in 2012 have no positive incentive to see
the economy recover and the unemploy-
ment rate drop substantially if it means
their opponent gets credit for it. It is sort
of like on a high school sports team where
the coach puts someone else in the posi-
tion you normally play someone you do
not like and while you want your team
to do well, youre sitting on the bench
sort of hoping that the guy who replaced
political decision to oppose him on every
major item in his agenda, regardless of
whether or not they had historically sup-
ported similar policies in the past. Obama
inherited an economy that was on life sup-
port, hemorrhaging three-quarters of a mil-
lion jobs per month. While our economy
was on the verge of a devastating collapse
tantamount to the Great Depression era, so
was the Republican Party. They had lost
control oI Congress in 2006 and President
Bushs popularity only plummeted from
there, dragging the Republican Partys
brand down with him. The 2008 elec-
tions drove their party even further into
the ground, while Democrats made ad-
ditional gains in Congress and Barack
Obama won the presidency in a landslide
election. Republicans were at a crossroads
and had several choices moving forward.
Their frst option would be to work to-
gether with Democrats to fnd bipartisan
solutions to the overwhelming crises our
country faced. That is what President
Obama wanted and that was probably
what the American people wanted as well,
but there was a great political danger in
doing that. Had Republicans gone along
with Obamas agenda and it had failed,
they would have been unable to clearly
contrast themselves Irom him in 2012.
Worse yet for them, had Obamas agenda
been successful in reviving the economy
and lowering unemployment to pre-re-
cession levels, he would have gotten all
the credit in 2012 even iI Republicans in
Congress deserved some credit for work-
The School of Washington Journal
12
Like many of you interested in European
politics, I have been frighteningly glued
to the political and economic breakdown
in Europe. Put simply, it`s the frst major
crisis our generation has witnessed on the
continent. Until now, Europe was seen as
a miraculous economic union that could
do no wrong. For obvious reasons, these
impressions were a miscalculation. But
for less obvious reasons, reasons that Eu-
ropean Union leaders would have us be
less aware of, the crisis we see today is not
only a selI inficted wound but has been
exacerbated by poor crisis management
and just outright poor political leadership.
Let me explain by starting with the fatal
faw in the EU`s structure that is causing
the crisis we face today. When the EU
began to take shape in debates across the
continent, leaders across Europe wanted to
have the benefts to economic integration
but didnt want to face the consequences
of giving up the sovereignty of their main
economic instruments. As the continent
began to economically integrate, national
executives made sure to hold onto their
taxation and bond market (and debt accru-
ing) powers. These decisions left a situa-
November - December 2011
European Union
Instability is Self
,QLFWHG
By Taylor Sappington
tion that caused the crisis we face today:
Too many individual bond markets and
leaders of those bond markets tugging on
one currency, the euro. Nations like Ire-
land, Portugal, Italy, and Greece were tech-
nically barred from amassing large debts,
but could get away with terrible budgetary
decisions with little effect on the currency
that is buoyed by Germany. What followed
were dangerous levels of debt and a lack of
accountability in the previously mentioned
nations. Though much can be said about
the decisions of the governments, this is
a structural faw on the part oI the euro.
Fast-forward to today. For all of you study-
ing public relations or politics, be sure to
watch the EU on how to not handle a cri-
sis effectively. Division and fear have won
the day, allowing Germany and France to
shift the discussion away from long-term
fxes and toward short-term punishments.
On Greece, instead of beginning the pro-
cess oI restructuring and refnancing with
long-term goals in mind, Angela Merkel
and Nicolas Sarkozy declared a Holy
Cow moment in 2010 and immediately
ordered Greece to implement severe and
dangerously deep cuts in order to con-
tinue receiving assistance from the EU.
The terms of these agreements would cer-
tainly not exist if the more powerful EU
nations had been the ones asking for help.
With every bundle of continued assistance,
Germany and France have done the same
thing: panic, decrease market confdence,
and demand terrifyingly rapid cuts with
no consideration to the damage they are
causing politically and economically. The
Greek economy is expected to contract by
5, grinding the country to a halt. The
Greek political system has been ruptured,
causing the fall of the democratically
elected government, the rise in support of
extremely radical parties, and daily vio-
lence in the streets. Now that Germany and
France feel accomplished in creating the
crisis in Greece they meant to avert, they
are going at it again by hitting the panic
button on Italy, forcing out the elected gov-
ernment after a couple days of scolding.
All of this disorder and panic by the EU
leaders is causing a drop in confdence
from investors as markets swing wildly
and bond markets become unstable across
the Eurozone. The contagion that Ger-
many and France are trying to prevent is
being implemented by their punitive and
reactionary actions. EU and national gov-
ernment leaders have made wrong deci-
sions, and though the situation is bad, it is
not a catastrophe nor is it insurmountable.
If the EU is to be maintained a couple of
things must be done. First, Germany and
France have got to stop hitting the panic
button whenever something doesnt turn
out the way they expect. Ironically, this
instability is causing French markets and
bond markets to fall apart exactly the same
as the nations they are wagging their fnger
at. Second, Germany and France should
stop dominating talks and must bring all
voices to the table, including Italy and
you does not do so well because then the
coach might put you back in the game.
In 2006 and 2008 the American people
sidelined Republicans and put Demo-
crats on the feld, only to replace a lot
oI Democrats with Republicans in 2010
after things had not been going so well
Ior that quarter oI the game. AIter 2010
Democrats are hoping that the unpopular
aspects of Republican policies are elevat-
ed onto a pedestal and that the American
people will return to their side next year
problems with. But instead, party has been
put before country and the next election
has been put ahead of the next generation.
This is the root of the anti-incumbent mood
in our country. If politicians in Washington
cannot get their act together and address
the unemployment crisis we have in this
country, next November the American
people will show about as much concern
for incumbent politicians job security as
politicians have shown concern for theirs.
and put Republicans back on the bench.
While we are cheering for our replace-
ments to fail, we forget that we are all
on the same team. We forget that no one
party or ideology has a monopoly on truth
and good ideas. Ideally we all want what
is best for our country, we just have dif-
ferent means of achieving what is best.
In the midst of the worst economic crisis
since the Great Depression, that is the atti-
tude that we should have approached these
13
Greece. Its either got to be a team effort
or we must admit the EU cares much less
about a colorful discussion than they say.
Lastly, the EU must bring accountability
to each country. Either they must integrate
taxation and bond markets further so ev-
ery nation has a more vested interest in the
success of the euro, or they must break up
Catering to the Kempt, The Unkempt o the Urbane
Sports
Thats when all hell broke loose,
in every sense of the phrase.
Students took to the streets, toppled
news vans, violently protested the fring,
and committed various acts of vandal-
ism. Several Penn State alumni couldnt
believe it and voiced their anger at the
boards decision. Some, whom Im
friends with on Facebook, even changed
their profle pictures and Iormed groups
to protest the fring oI a man who be-
came to be known fondly as JoePa.
While this outburst of love is admi-
rable by students and alumni from Penn
State, it is also disrespectful. It is, for
a lack of a better word, outright rude.
What students and alumni should be
talking about are the crimes them-
selves. They should be talking about
the numerous victims and what theyve
had to endure and the trauma they
must cope with the rest of their lives.
Thats whats important and thats what
many people seem to have lost sight of.
It seems as though everyone, including
the self-proclaimed worldwide leader
in sports ESPN who has an army of
journalists at their disposal, forgot about
the victims. There was so much uproar
over the fring oI Paterno, that the sto-
ries of those boys who were abused,
touched inappropriately, sodomized,
and raped were immediately forgotten.
What happened to Coach Paterno was
unfortunate, but necessary. While he re-
ported the crimes to his superiors, it was
just as necessary for him to report those
crimes to the authorities. Assistant Coach
Mike McQueary should have done the
to allow everyone to sink or swim on their
own. The debts of Europe can be contained,
restructured, and fxed over time like so
many instances in their history. But if the
continent continues to panic at every turn,
economic growth will halt and contract, ex-
actly like predictions are beginning to pick
up on. Without economic growth, govern-
ments will not be able to make payments
and then the world will face the true crisis
that the EU doesnt realize it is causing.
By midday on Nov. 12, it was pretty evi-
dent that Penn State University had more
than just a PR fasco on their hands. In my
lifetime, never has a school of such mag-
nitude and prestige faced so much scrutiny
and gone through so much ridicule. Then
again, never in my lifetime has a person
or persons in such high capacity commit-
ted such heinous and unforgiveable acts
at a highly regarded academic institution.
What allegedly happened at Penn State
over a span of several years under the reign
of former Penn State football assistant Jer-
ry Sandusky is despicable in all senses of
the word. It is dirty. It is rotten. In truth, it
is any word that you`d fnd in a thesaurus
when looking up the word disgusting. It
should never have happened. But the fact
remains though still allegedly that it did.
In the proceeding fallout after San-
duskys arrest, the Penn State Board
oI Trustees moved to fre the univer-
sity President Graham Spanier and,
more importantly (or more controver-
sially), football head coach Joe Paterno.
The Misguided
Coverage and
Concern of Penn
States Football
Scandal
By Yogin Kothari
same as well as Athletic Director Tim
Curley and Vice President Gary Schultz.
What all of these men did is inexcusable.
The cover-up by the school is inexcus-
able. What these oIfcials did to protect
a brand should never happen again. Ev-
eryone around the world should learn
from the mistakes of these men when
a crime is committed, report it to the au-
thorities. Ensure that justice is served. In
the end, a persons life is always more
valuable than any type of institution.
Will the NBA
Lockout Ever
End?
By Arjun Seth
The clock has run out. Invitations were
sent out to the National Basketball As-
sociation but unfortunately an RSVP was
never received, and Ior the frst time in the
21st century, the NBA is under threat oI
cancelling a season. Recent weeks have
been eventful for sports fanatics across the
country, as all three major sports leagues
(MLB, NFL, NHL) are squeezed together
on television broadcasts across the world.
The end of the year is fast approaching
and now with the World Series in the his-
tory books, half of the NFL season com-
pleted and the NHL season in full swing,
only one member is absent: the NBA.
The School of Washington Journal
14
November - December 2011
Predicting the
Destinations of
Major League
Baseballs Leading
Free Agents
By Josh Grinsberg
Its that time of year again. Now that the
World Series is over and the St. Louis
Cardinals are world champions, its time
to look at which teams will reel in the
top free agents. Here is a look at the top
9 free agents, their most realistic des-
tinations, and their probable contracts.
1. Albert Pujols: Arguably the best play-
er of this generation, Albert Pujols is the
defnition oI consistency. Despite an in-
jury flled 2011 season in which he had
a batting average oI .299 with 37 homers
and 99 RBIs, Pujols has had a batting av-
erage of over 300 with at least 30 hom-
ers and 100 RBIs since he was brought
up in 2001. With many oI the biggest
spenders (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies)
having frst baseman locked up Ior the
next couple of years, I cannot see Pujols
leaving a city that loves him and where
he has won two world championships.
for franchises to keep signature players.
By writing these issues out, it seems the
goal is not too far away. All that is needed
is a few cool-heads in New York handling
the business, and we should a season in
no time. Still, with the recent disband-
ing of the NBA players union because
no agreement was found, the NBA is
one bad PR stunt from becoming a de-
funct league. The only hope left is the
miracle of the holidays. I hope the play-
ers and owners were nice this year. May-
be Santa will surprise us all and give the
season a late start in 2011. II not, ho-ho-
hopefully well have a season next year.
July 1st, 2011 was the frst day oI the NBA
lockout as a collective bargaining agree-
ment (CBA) between the league and the
National Basketball Players Association
was not negotiated and billions of dollars
of revenue became questionable. NBA
Commissioner David Stern, the NBA
team owners, and players are experienc-
ing their frst labor lockout in 13 years.
With player compensation and basketball-
related revenue at an all-time high, NBA
fans have been handcuffed and thrown in
a jail where bail is nonexistent and they
have no representation in the matter. All
the fans can do is watch, wait, and hope
Through the eyes of the fan, it seems as if
billions of dollars, an already inexplicably
large amount oI money, is foating in the air.
In a country where money and sports have
been married for decades, an agreement
seems like a distant future in which either
the NBA management or the players must
take a fractioned paycheck. As part of the
expired CBA, players received a heIty 57
share of basketball-related revenue. Own-
ers have clamored for an even 50-50 split,
while most NBA players have negotiated
contracts overseas and international play-
ers have joined their countrymen for FIBA
World Championship matches abroad.
Some players such as Blake GriIfn (the
Los Angeles Clippers) and Delonte West
(the Boston Celtics) have chosen different
paths. GriIfn, the newly endowed 'tenth
best NBA player in the league according
to a mass ESPN.com poll, has begun his
internship with Will Ferrell-led comedy
site FunnyOrDie.com. West has taken a
position at Regency Furniture, the pre-
mier furniture retailer serving the greater
Maryland and Virginia area. Chris Bosh,
one oI Miami`s glorifed 'Big Three, has
begun a recurring role on NBCs Law
and Order: Special Victims Unit in order
to bide his time throughout the lockout.
While some players may have found a re-
prieve, union members are meeting consis-
tently to no avail. It seems as if the path
to ending this lockout is hazy, layered in a
thick fog, and for reasons not even ESPNs
basketball demigod journalist Bill Sim-
mons can unearth, 20 weeks have gone by
since the CBA expired this past summer.
There are three clear issues that the players
and owners will have to muddle through,
even with the advent of a federal mediator.
Based on numbers David Stern released
during the last season, the owners lost
$340 million. Even after one of the high-
est attended, most watched, and best sea-
sons in league history, according to inde-
pendent research done by the Association
for Professional Basketball Research, the
owners still lost. Step one would be to curb
this loss by keeping it out of the media.
Issue number two is the now damaged
trust between the players, owners, and the
commissioner. This broken triangle needs
to be mended before any hope of recov-
ery can be achieved. Truth be told, the
broken pieces are in fragments so small at
this point that mending them has become
unfeasible. After the latest CBA nego-
tiations, and hours with a federal lawyer
poised to assist both the union and play-
ers in getting the deal they want and de-
serve, plans fell through again. The play-
ers refused the deal and plunged the league
into a nuclear winter. Even if a season
returns this year or next year, the busi-
ness side of the NBA has reared its ugly
head and the friendship between owners
and players has gone through the window.
Lastly, the owners are shooting them-
selves in the foot when they overpay play-
ers, underpay superstars, and cant cre-
ate franchise players. By offering up a
fve-year, $32 million dollar deal to Drew
Gooden, an average, mid-sized power-
forward for the Milwaukee Bucks, you
set a standard for the league. When play-
ers like Josh Smith (the Atlanta Hawks),
Zach Randolph (the Memphis Grizzlies),
and Blake GriIfn are at the end oI their
contracts, they will have no choice but
to demand two to three times more than
what Gooden is getting. This league-wide
infation stops teams Irom signing super-
stars and from being able to keep those
superstars. The answer is a hard salary
cap and redefning a 'Iranchise player as
someone who is rewarded for his length
with one team, bonuses for consistent All-
Star appearances, thus making it easier
15
Catering to the Kempt, The Unkempt o the Urbane
son, but at the end, I expect the Nationals to
add him to solidify a young start rotation.
Prediction: Washington Nationals (5
years, $82.5 million)
5. Yu Darvish: Yu Darvish has the high-
est upside among any starting pitcher in
the market. At the age oI 25, he has domi-
nated the Japanese Baseball League and
has the makeup to dominate in the Major
League level as well. Expect a couple of
teams to try to bid a posting fee to have
the rights to talk to him. At the end though,
the Texas Rangers will offer the most
money and ultimately have the ace they
need to compete for upcoming seasons.
Prediction: Texas Rangers (45 million to
post; 5 years, $60 million)
6. Jimmy Rollins: The market is thin for
shortstops. This will help Jimmy Rollins
obtain a multiyear deal. Although he has
aged and is not the same player he used
to be, he is an above average shortstop. I
dont see Rollins moving away from the
Phillies especially with their mediocre
offense and what he means to the team.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies (4 years,
$50 million)
7. Carlos Beltran: Carlos Beltran is the
best outfelder on the market. Although he
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (8 years,
$220 million)
2. Prince Fielder: Any team needing a big
bat will try to pursue Prince Fielder. Only
at the age oI 27 years, Fielder may even
have a higher upside than Albert Pujols.
With the new Chicago Cubs team president
Theo Epstein trying to rebuild the franchise
to a contender and having money to spend,
I see the Cubs making a big splash by tak-
ing Fielder away from its division foe.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs (8 years, $190
million)
3. Jose Reyes: Jose Reyes is the defni-
tion of a catalyst. When healthy, there is
no better leadoff hitter than Jose. How-
ever, the main problem in his career is
staying healthy and that will scare away
some potential suitors. The San Fran-
cisco Giants desperately need a bat and
a shortstop making Reyes the perIect ft.
Prediction: San Francisco Giants (7 years,
$122 million)
4. CJ Wilson: Even though CJ Wilson had
a dreadful postseason, it will not affect
teams from pursuing him. He is the best
starting pitcher in a thin market for pitchers
and at the age of 31, he is still in his prime.
Expect a group of 5-6 teams to bid for Wil-
has had injured prone seasons within the
last couple of years, last year he hit .300
with 22 homers in two non-homer Iriend-
ly parks, Citi Field and AT&T Ballpark.
The Red Sox need a bat in right feld and
Beltran is a perIect ft Ior the ball club.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox (2 years, $24
million)
8. Roy Oswalt: Roy Oswalt was part of
perhaps the greatest rotation of all time:
the 2011 Phillies. However, at the age oI
34 and with a history of back problems,
I only see him getting a 2-year deal. The
Rangers could use a veteran and Os-
walt signing there makes a lot of sense.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies (2 years,
$28 million)
9. Mark Buehrle: Mark Buehrle is the
most durable and consistent pitcher on the
market. He is only 32 years old and shows
no signs of slowing downs. He cannot lead
a rotation but can be a perfect compliment
to a competitor. I can see the Yankees
signing him to complete their rotation.
Prediction: New York Yankees (4 years,
$52 million)
a
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