2024 Trend Report for Planners

2024
APA FORESIGHT
Trend
Report
for Planners
Use the future when preparing for uncertainty and CONSORTIUM FOR
SCENARIO PLANNING
helping communities navigate change. Stay a step ahead
of the issues impacting the future of planning and our
communities. Brought to you by the American Planning
Association and the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH THE FUTURE OF PLANNING
Front Matter
Table of Trends and Signals for 2024

Contents
The trends in this report are structured in three timeframes, which indicate the urgency of planners’ action.
Within each timeframe, trends are grouped into themed clusters (in alphabetical order).
03 The Framework
About This Report Special Features
How to Use This Report SCENARIOS
About the American Planning Association $
2034: The Futures of
and the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
the (Home) Office
Contributors
2044: The Futures of
Methodology
Decision-Making in
09 APA’s Trend Universe Planning
10 The Trends We Need to Act on Now 2054: The Futures of
Act Now Prepare Learn and Global Climate Action
35 The Trends We Need to Prepare For
The AI Era Global Dynamics Watch
57 The Signals We Need to Learn About and a New Economic DEEP DIVES
and Watch Looming Climate Innovations in
Landscape
Impacts and Adaptation the Energy Sector The Silent Health Crisis
75 The Future of Planning Challenges Immersive City for Planning for a Hybrid
and by the People Mitigating Climate
pskilling: Evolving Planning
U Climate Mitigation: World
Change Through
Competencies and Skills Skilled Workers, Tech, Job Evolution Geoengineering The Futures of Food
PlanTech: Updating the Planner’s Toolkit and Policies and Revolution Production
Conclusion Curiosities and Game-
Housing Challenges Moving Toward Changing Innovations
a Polycrisis EXPERT INTERVIEWS
and Solutions
The New Space A World With Less Water
Political Polarization Emerging Forms
of Transportation The U.S. Infrastructure
and Societal Division
Crisis
Persisting Transportation Continuing Changes
ChatGPT Talks About the
Inequities in Work and Retail
Futures of AI
© 2024 American Planning Association
and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
The Value of Youth
2 | 2024 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy | planning.org/foresight

FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH
The
framework
About
This Report
Methodology
Trend
Universe

About This Report

This is the third Trend Report for Planners developed by the While most of the trends and of every planning agenda but have might play out in the future. We
American Planning Association (APA) in partnership with the signals from previous Trend Reports deep connections to planning: the traveled to the year 2044 to better
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. are still relevant, we didn’t repeat silent health crisis and what planners understand how the uncertainty
them in this Trend Report unless can do to mitigate it, and the global about political polarization and the
As in previous years, the core of this Trend Report is
there were major updates that food crisis and signals of what the fast pace of artificial intelligence
a list of over 100 existing, emerging, and potential future
were important to highlight. All future of food production and agri- (AI) innovations might affect the
trends that the APA Foresight team, together with our Trend
trends and signals from this report culture might look like. Addition- work planners do. And we explored
Scouting Foresight Community, identified as relevant to and previous reports are now also ally, we dive deeper into the topic plausible scenarios for the year 2054
planning. The trends are structured within three timeframes available online in APA’s Trend Uni- of planning for a hybrid world—a on how the futures of geoengineer-
(Act Now, Prepare, Learn and Watch), indicating the urgency verse where they will be regularly world where people can choose for ing and related potential climate
of planners’ action. Within each timeframe, trends are updated, reflecting the accelerating almost any activity whether they change mitigation might play out
grouped into themed clusters. For each trend, the report pace of change today and in the want to do it online or in person— in a world that is currently moving
future. and what that might mean for the towards deglobalization. For more
gives insights and explains why it is important for planners to
Furthermore, the report future of planning. information on scenario planning,
know about and consider the trend in their work. All trends
addresses the future of planning, Based on different trends and you can visit APA’s Scenario Plan-
and signals are based on facts and are described neutrally
explaining how the planning profes- signals, we also did some time ning KnowledgeBase Collection and
and without judgement. The purpose of the report is to sion will have to evolve to keep up travel and created a variety of the Lincoln Institute’s Consortium
share potential drivers of change and shifts that will possibly with a continuously changing world, future scenarios. These scenarios for Scenario Planning.
Planning
impact the work of planners and the communities we serve as what new skills planners will have are examples of how planners can Finally, this year’s report fea-
planners. to develop, and which new tools are use the trends from this report to tures expert interviews with two of
worth trying. create multiple plausible futures of our trend scouts on two other crises
Additional features throughout their own communities and how in which planners might want to get
this report include deep dives, future they might affect the path forward. more involved: the water crisis and
scenarios, and expert interviews. We looked at the year 2034 and the the U.S. infrastructure crisis. And
This year’s deep dives highlight two question of how the housing crisis we asked ChatGPT to interview
crises that are not always at the top together with remote work trends itself about the future of AI.

How to use this report which briefly describes how you can Trend Prioritization for Planners
The Trend Report is intended to be use the multiple trends of this report
used as a tool or reference when in a foresighted approach, we devel- HIGH CERTAINTY APA FORESIGHT:
planning for the future of our com- oped an interactive online course Using the Future
munities. Planners can use the on how you can make sense of the to Create
trends listed in this report as input future, train your futures-literacy Include these These trends Dynamic Plans
for their long-range and current muscles, and use foresight in your trends in your are top priority CM | 6
planning processes, to practice stra- work: Using the Future to Create
work, but they for you and your
won’t be communities. This upskilling course,
tegic foresight during community Dynamic Plans.
Plans The course offers
crucial. Using the Future
visioning processes, for scenario approaches on how you can identify
to Create Dynamic
planning, or simply to inform future
planning trends and signals in your commu-
Plans, gives planners
decision-making. nity together with your community
the ability to imag-
To determine and prioritize the members, how you can prioritize
ine multiple plausible
most important trends to consider, and focus on the most important
HIGH IMPACT futures, use the future
planners can evaluate and rate the trends, how you can imagine what
in our work, and plan
trends based upon (1) the expected the future might look like, and how
with the future. This
extent and severity of the poten- the practice of foresight can help
LOW IMPACT interactive self-paced
tial impact, and (2) how certain you create dynamic plans that allow
training includes how
or uncertain it is that a trend will you to pivot along the way while
to use strategic fore-
occur in a community. The Trend the future is approaching. Using It’s okay Keep on
sight in planning with
Prioritization for Planners graph the future when planning to shape to dismiss watching
applicable tools and
demonstrates how these two factors the future of our communities will these these trends
methodologies to
interact in the evaluation of trends. result in more equitable and resil- trends. or signals and
learn more equip planners with the
Trends in the upper right quadrant ient outcomes.
about them. essential skills needed
of the graph—high impact and high
to navigate change and
certainty—represent the top-prior-
understand how future
ity trends for planners to pay special
uncertainties may
attention to.
impact communities.
In addition to APA’s PAS Quick LOW CERTAINTY
Notes 94, “Planning
Planning With Foresight,
Foresight ”

About the American Planning About the Lincoln Institute

Association of Land Policy
The American Planning Association is an independent, not-for-profit educa- The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy seeks to improve quality of life through
tional organization that provides vital leadership in creating great communi- the effective use, taxation, and stewardship of land. A nonprofit, private oper-
ties for all. APA and its professional institute, the American Institute of Certi- ating foundation whose origins date to 1946, the Lincoln Institute researches
fied Planners,
Planners are dedicated to advancing the profession of planning, offering and recommends creative approaches to land as a solution to economic, social,
better choices for where and how people work and live. The nearly 40,000 and environmental challenges. Through education, training, publications,
APA members work in concert with community residents, civic leaders, and and events, we integrate theory and practice to inform public policy decisions
business interests to create com- predicting the future—it is about worldwide. We organize our work Consortium for
munities that enrich people’s lives. understanding drivers of change around thematic areas: fiscal sys- Scenario Planning
Through its philanthropic work, the that are outside of our control, how CONSORTIUM FOR
tems; land markets and opportuni- The Consortium for Scenario Plan-
APA Foundation helps to reduce we can prepare for them, and when SCENARIO PLANNING ties; and climate, land, and water. We ning at the Lincoln Institute of Land
economic and social barriers to it is time to act. APA Foresight iden- envision a world where cities and Policy offers a community of prac-
good planning. APA is based in tifies emerging trends and explores regions prosper and benefit from tice for practitioners, including
Chicago. how scenarios stemming from each coordinated land use planning and access to technical assistance, edu-
may impact the world, our commu- public finance; where communities cational resources, and a network
APA Foresight— nities, and the planning profession thrive from efficient and equitable of fellow innovators. Its mission is
learning with the future in the years to come. The path for- allocation of limited land resources; to improve the practice of scenario
APA Foresight helps planners nav- ward requires adjusting, adapting, and where stewardship of land and planning and broaden its use in
igate change and prepare for an and even reinventing planning pro- water resources ensures a livable communities of all sizes across dis-
uncertain future. With foresight in cesses, tools, and skills to meet the future. We work globally, with loca- ciplines. Through research, peer-to-
mind, planners can guide change, needs of a changing world. Through tions in Cambridge, Massachusetts; peer learning, networking, training,
create more sustainable and equita- APA’s foresight practice, planners Washington, D.C.; Phoenix, Ari- and technical assistance, we help
ble outcomes, and establish them- will find support, training, and zona; and Beijing, China. communities develop better plans
selves as critical to thriving com- new research for making sense of to guide a range of actions, from cli-
munities. Foresight is not about ever-changing futures. mate change adaptation to transpor-
tation investment.

Contributors APA’s Trend Scouting Foresight Community

This report was developed by APA in Thank you to our trend scouts for their valuable inputs.
partnership with the Lincoln Institute. A special
thank you to Heather Sauceda Hannon, AICP, Nader Afzalan, PhD: California Governor’s Office of Planning Enzo Lundy: APA Student Representatives Council
Associate Director of Planning Practice and Research Keith Marvin, AICP: APA Small Town and Rural Planning
and Scenario Planning, and Ryan Maye Jenin Ahmad: Student, University of Calgary Division
Handy, AICP, Policy Analyst, at the Lincoln Clinton J. Andrews, PhD, AICP: Rutgers University Robert McHaney, AICP CTP: The Goodman Corporation
Institute. Cynthia Bowen, FAICP: Rundell Ernstberger Associates Bianca Mers, AICP Candidate: EJP Consulting Group
Matt Bucchin, AICP: Halff, APA Sustainable Communities Saralee L. Morrissey, FAICP: APA Public Schools and
AUTHORS AND RESEARCH Division Communities Division
Petra Hurtado, PhD: Bill Cesanek, AICP: CDM Smith, APA Water + Planning Jim Olson, P.E.: Better Roads Ahead
Director of Research and Foresight Network Barkha Patel: City of Jersey City
Ievgeniia Dulko: Lynette Cheah, PhD: Singapore University of Technology
Senior Associate, Research and Foresight Will B. Payne, PhD: Rutgers University
and Design
Jeffrey B. Ray, AICP: JEO Consulting Group
Sagar Shah, PhD, AICP:
Giancarlo Cotella, PhD: AESOP
Manager, Research and Strategic Initiatives Don Roe: City of St. Louis
Heather Galbraith: City of Calgary
Joseph DeAngelis, AICP: Tanya Sakamoto: City of Calgary
Research Manager, Grant-Funded Projects Johnathan Gates: City of Phoenix
Thomas W. Sanchez, PhD, AICP: Texas A&M University
Senna Catenacci: Research Associate Eric Howell: Memphis and Shelby County Division of
Jennifer Senick, PhD: Rutgers University
Planning and Development
Scarlet Andrzejczak: Research Associate Chi Ho Sham: American Water Works Association
Sophie Huemer, AICP: Alexandria City Public Schools
David Morley, AICP: Becky Steckler, AICP: ECOnorthwest
Manager, Research Programs Felicia Hutchinson: APA Student Representatives Council
Rick Stein, AICP: Urban Decision Group, LLC
Brendan Irsfeld: Lane County Government
EDITOR Ric Stephens: University of Oregon
Rodrigo Junco: Student, Tecnologico de Monterrey
Ann Dillemuth, AICP: PAS Editor David Wasserman, AICP: Alta Planning + Design
Matthew Klein, DSL: Aqualaurus Group, LLC
ART DIRECTION AND DESIGN Walker Wells, AICP: Raimi + Associates
Verena Kuen: 1030 Innovation Consulting
Cynthia Currie: Creative Director Norman Wright, AICP: Parameter
Ryan Lanyon: Metrolinx
Cover and section illustrations by Peter Jing Zhang, AICP: Morgantown Monongalia MPO
Nico Larco, AIA: Urbanism Next Center, University of Oregon
Grundy

Methodology Five Trend Categories

Trend Scouting
Foresight Community
Five trend categories are at the foundation of For a successful foresight
Foresight Methodologies APA’s foresight research: societal, technological, practice, diversity is key to
environmental, economic, and political trends (STEEP).
capture different perspec-
TREND SCANNING Through these five categories, APA connects
tives, ensure that we identify
Researching existing, emerging, and potential future trends emerging trends and potential future trends to
(including societal, technological, environmental, economic, and a variety of trends directly or
planning (sense-making) and creates guidance on how
political trends, or STEEP) and related drivers of change. indirectly connected to plan-
planners can get future-ready (meaning-making).
ning, and avoid missing trends
SIGNAL SENSING or signals within or outside the
Identifying developments in the far future and planning world. The members
in adjacent fields outside of the conventional planning space
of the Trend Scouting Fore-
that might impact planning.
Societal sight Community meet quar-
Trends
terly to share observations,
FORECASTING
Estimating future trends. discuss present-day shifts they
Technological
have observed, and hint at
Political
Trends signals that could evolve into
SENSE-MAKING
Trends future trends. The community
Connecting trends and signals to planning
to explore how they will impact cities, communities,
Planning includes thought leaders from
and the way planners do their work. Profession multiple disciplines, industries,
backgrounds, career stages,
Source: PAS QuickNotes 94
94,, “Planning with Foresight.”
and countries. With our Trend
Scouting Foresight Community,
Trend Timeframes Economic
Trends Environmental we want to imagine futures
Identified trends are grouped depending on their urgency:
Trends beyond the views and per-
ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH spectives within the planning
Existing trends Emerging trends Potential future trends profession, challenging the
planners need planners need to or signals planners need
to act on today. prepare for. to learn more about and continuation of our past and
keep watching. present.

APA’s Trend Universe

The Trend Universe is the Transportation Climate Change, Energy,
place to find all of the trends and Infrastructure and the Environment PlanTech and
that APA has identified Emerging trends within the transportation and The effects of climate change,
change along with inno- Planning Methods
infrastructure sectors are changing how we get vations in energy production and grid modern-
as part of its foresight
around, how we access critical services, and where ization, are shaping both our built and natural The world is in constant
practice. The trends here
we live and work. environments. flux and so is the planning
are dynamically updated,
profession. PlanTech
PlanTech, the
reflecting the accelerating Economic Development Work and the Workplace technologies planners
pace of change of today Changes in global and local economic develop- Rapid changes in the nature of work and work- can use in their work to
and tomorrow. Here, you ment are altering consumer behavior in commu- place environments are influencing how people facilitate processes or
can find existing trends (act nities and influencing how urban systems respond choose their jobs, commute to work, and spend make certain tasks more
on them now), emerging to these shifts. their leisure time. efficient, is emerging
as a critical element of
trends (start preparing for
Technology Politics and the future of planning.
them), and potential future
Emerging and evolving technology trends are Geopolitical Dynamics Emerging methods,
trends (keep watching and
significantly influencing where and how people Political and geopolitical trends both influence such as people-centric
learn more about them) live, work, and play. and are influenced by shifts across the societal and hyperlocal planning
organized around eight landscape. approaches to enhance
general themes. Social Change equity, or the integration
Social change is frequently mirrored in the way we Housing of futures literacy and
plan and structure our communities, as well as in Emerging trends in the housing sector point to the imagination into planning,
the methods and practices of planning itself. critical role that planners will likely play in future are also rising to meet the
decades. challenges of a complex
and uncertain future.

The trends
we need to
act on now
The accelerating pace of change we live in becomes
visible when looking at the growing list of trends on
which planners need to act now. And while most trends
from previous Trend Reports are still relevant, many new
developments around reoccurring topics require our
attention. This includes trends and signals around the
latest artificial intelligence (AI) innovations, climate
change and climate action, the worsening housing
crisis, persisting inequities in transportation, political
polarization and related societal division, and the risks
of undervaluing youth in our communities.
Check out APA’s Trend Universe for more trends
planners need to act on now.

The AI Era
With the rapid development of machine learning and other
innovations driven by artificial intelligence (AI), it’s evident
that humanity has reached the AI era. The accelerated
rise of Generative AI (Gen AI) in the last year has marked
a transformative period that has seen an explosion of
generated text, images, videos, and voice synthesis.
However, there is spreading unease in American society
about AI’s profound role and poten- Generative AI is everywhere

tial implications. As AI’s signifi- Gen AI,
AI with large language mod-
cance burgeons, the U.S. and gov- els (LLMs) at its forefront, is the
ernments worldwide are working to most rapidly expanding AI-driven
introduce various regulations, pri- technology globally. Unlike tra-
marily driven by the need to address ditional AI, Gen AI can produce
bias and prevent the potential mis- unique content seemingly crafted by
use of AI. While many observers humans in six modalities:
modalities text, code,
believe that the advancements in audio, image, video, and 3D.
Gen AI have the potential to greatly The growth of Gen AI is aston-
enhance public services, concerns ishing. In less than a year, ChatGPT
are increasing about cybersecu- hit 100 million weekly users, and
rity and privacy, as well as the envi- over two million developers are
Rapid developments in machine learning and other AI-driven innovations have the potential to greatly enhance public ronmental impact of the comput- actively using the company’s API
services, but concerns are increasing about cybersecurity, privacy, and the environmental impacts of supercomputers,
like the Aurora supercomputer at Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois. Photo by Argonne National Laboratory. ing power required to support for their projects. In April 2023,
supercomputers. an Organization for Economic

Co-operation and Development INSIGHT FROM disabilities offering them tools and
disabilities, York rolled out landmark regula- At the state level, measures
OUR TREND SCOUTS
(OECD) paper recommended solutions to navigate challenges tions overseeing AI-enabled hiring are also intensifying. California’s
that governments collaborate with “The commodity of the more autonomously. tools and released a plan to embrace governor issued an executive order
stakeholders to ready themselves next decade is going The upcoming 2024 U.S. presi- AI that launches a process of AI placing the state at the cutting edge
for a societal and work transfor- to be trust.” dential elections spotlight the dual- adoption within city agencies. of AI strategy, emphasizing both
mation driven by LLMs. However, —Nico Larco, AIA, Urbanism Next edged nature of AI. The technology proactive AI regulation and the
Center, University of Oregon
as per a July 2023 Pew Research could revolutionize how political promotion of trustworthy AI prac-
Center survey, many Americans campaigns engage with the elector- tices through state procurement.
remain unfamiliar with ChatGPT. ate. However, the inherent biases Meanwhile, Kansas is standardizing
Only a minority believe AI-en- addressing specific planning chal- within different LLMs, coupled with Gen AI use across executive agen-
abled chatbots will significantly lenges, such as parsing professional
lenges the proliferation of deepfake tech- cies, and Texas has inaugurated
impact their jobs, and even fewer documents, working with digital nologies, make AI-fueled disinfor-
nologies an advisory body to analyze AI’s
see them as beneficial to their twins, or even drafting zoning codes
twins mation a major threat to the integ- implications and report to its legis-
work. This suggests that 2024 may (see also the APA Blog and the APA rity of democratic processes and fair lative assembly. The rapid evolution
be a pivotal year in which more whitepaper “AIAI in Planning: Oppor- elections. of AI regulations at state and local
people get acquainted with and tunities and Challenges and How to levels offers public-sector planners
begin to engage with platforms like Prepare”).
Prepare a unique chance to harness these
ChatGPT and other LLMs in both AI innovations are already U.S. AI regulations emerge emerging policies as guiding frame-
professional and personal settings. making waves in education. The Driven by concerns about security works and propose innovative,
Another growing trend in Gen AI is initial ban of ChatGPT in major and potential misuse, an increas- ethical, and efficient AI applications
the emergence of image-generation school districts highlighted con- ing number of local governments tailored to urban planning.
platforms. Given the integration cerns over the implications of LLMs are stepping up to craft their own AI The progress of AI regulation at
of DALL-E 3 into ChatGPT 4 and in the education space. Nonetheless, regulations and guidelines. With cit- the federal level in the U.S. appears
other platforms, a surge in AI-gen- an increasing number of educators ies pioneering the establishment of to be accelerating. At the end of
erated visual content is anticipated recognize AI’s inevitable presence rules for AI use, they are effectively October 2023, President Biden
in the near future. in the classroom. The challenge becoming trendsetters in this field. The proliferation of deepfake issued an executive order focused
Gen AI’s influence on pro- lies in ensuring its implementation For instance, in 2023 Boston and technologies make AI-fueled on ensuring the safe and secure
disinformation a major threat in
ductivity spans numerous sectors, is beneficial. Gen AI can also be a Seattle formulated AI policies that areas ranging from false advertising usage of AI. The order aims to safe-
including planning (see PlanTech
PlanTech). game-changer for individuals with foster AI adoption and responsi- practices to the integrity of guard Americans from potential
democratic processes. Image by
AI is also showing promise in ble use among public servants. New @tomhanks on IG. adverse effects of AI-driven

technology, building on the previ- excessively restricting technological implications of AI computations

ously released Blueprint for the AI progression or inordinately escalat- have largely remained in the shad-
Bill of Rights and the voluntary ing AI deployment costs. ows until now. Companies working
agreement of leading tech compa- Meanwhile, China has adopted in the AI domain tend to be tight-
nies to follow eight measures from regulations for strict banning of lipped about their energy consump-
the U.S. government to encourage deepfakes (fake versions of images, tion details, which makes it chal-
responsible practices of AI deploy- videos, or audio recordings cre- lenging to obtain a clear picture of
ment. The AI Bill of Rights proposes ated by AI) but enforcement is no the environmental cost. Another
measures to establish standards, easy feat in this field. However, recent study finds that generat-
guidelines, and safety measures for this doesn’t seem to be dampening ing one image with AI uses almost
AI, especially in areas related to enthusiasm for the questionable the same amount of energy as fully
national security and data privacy. It use of AI tools in the corporate charging a smartphone.
also highlights the importance of sector. Numerous Chinese firms are It is becoming evident that
advancing AI research, protecting continuing to create AI avatars for moving forward, AI corporations
Americans’ privacy, and addressing e-commerce applications and sell need to align with sustainability
issues related to algorithmic dis- mobile apps that potentially can be guidelines. But for these guidelines
crimination. In light of these con- The progress of AI regulation at the federal level in the U.S. is accelerating, used to create deepfakes. to be effectively implemented, they
with President Biden issuing an executive order in October 2023 focused
siderations, public-sector planners on ensuring the safe and secure usage of AI. Photo by Doug Mills/The New need the right tools. The tools pres-
will encounter fresh avenues for York Times. ently available to measure the eco-
community involvement and Environmental impacts of AI logical impacts of AI computations
co-creation (see Immersive City for AI’s increasing significance in are not without their flaws, empha-
and by the People).
People At the same International AI strategies towards AI governance is evident. addressing climate change chal- sizing the urgency to develop more
time, planners face the challenge of take shape In 2023 the EU reached agreement lenges cannot be denied. Yet, while accurate and holistic methods to
keeping up with new regulations for Countries worldwide are also work- on the AI Act, a novel legal frame- AI offers solutions to environmental ensure the responsible growth of AI
using AI products, protecting pri- ing to craft AI guidelines. The work with an emphasis on striking problems, its operation has a sub-
problems without compromising the planet’s
vacy, and reducing the risk of poten- OECD’s recent white paper on Gen a balance between promoting AI stantial environmental footprint. health.
tial discrimination while deploying AI aims to steer policy decisions innovation and ensuring ethical AI Organizations like the OECD and
AI-driven technology solutions. and help leaders effectively address development and use. The AI Act others are focusing their research
the nuances of AI governance. is emblematic of this vision, striv- on this very topic. Their revelations
In Europe, a strategic approach ing to establish AI rules without indicate that the environmental

Looming Climate Impacts and Adaptation Challenges

As global temperatures continue to rise, a wide array
of impacts is rapidly emerging. Climate displacement is
growing, and evolving strategies for more proactively
managing retreat from high-hazard areas are seeing
renewed interest from practitioners and communities
nationwide. Fears around the role of wildfire—not just as
a hazard, but also as a significant source of greenhouse
gas emissions—are also starting to across the globe. Flood maps, a crit-
rise, alongside a growing interest in ical regulatory and hazard mitiga-
the sources of poor air quality. Ulti- tion tool, are becoming outdated
mately, the dawning reality of cli- in the face of frequent major flood
mate impacts will require planners impacts. Major floods that were
to adjust and plan accordingly to previously expected to occur once
avoid catastrophic loss of life, pre- per century are now blindsiding
vent the destruction of property, both landlocked and coastal com-
and protect community well-being. munities much more frequently.
For example, Hawaii is increasingly
grappling with severe flooding,
The new climate reality wildfires, biodiversity loss, extreme
takes hold heat, and poor air and water qual-
An emerging new climate reality ity. During the state’s recent deadly
In an emerging new climate reality, major floods that were previously expected to occur once per century are now marked by more frequent extreme wildfires, people were advised to
blindsiding both landlocked and coastal communities much more frequently. Photo by Ryan Johnson/Flickr.
outcomes is starting to take root remain indoors in safe locations

due to high risk of exposure to League of Cities and U.S. Confer- even accelerate. By 2050, more than
asbestos and other deadly pollut- ence of Mayors are urging Congress one billion people may be displaced
ants that were released into the air to pass proposed bipartisan legis- due to climate-related impacts.
from the burning of older build- lation that would explicitly include Adaptation at the local level will
ings. These compounds tainted the extreme heat in the federal govern- be critical to both prepare for the
water supply,
supply further disrupting the ment’s definition of a major disaster. movement of people due to climate-
lives of residents and the recovery Some innovations and experi- related impacts and more proac-
efforts. Impacts are becoming too mentation are on the horizon. In tively retreat from especially high-
severe and frequent for communi- Spain, Madrid is experimenting risk areas.
ties to manage on their own.
own For with wind gardens to cool down
planners, it will be key to include parts of the city by up to 4°C;
community knowledge about these a coalition of U.S. cities is working Managed retreat versus
new realities and to critically eval- to roll out innovative data analysis continued development
uate official hazards documents tools to identify and quickly remedy In the face of forced climate dis-
when making plans for affected major heat impacts; and in Switzer- placement, renewed discussion has
communities. land, Lake Geneva is being tapped sought to better characterize man-
as a means to actively cool build- aged retreat as a package of poten-
ings. Given rising global tempera- tial actions rather than the whole-
Rising global temperatures tures and impacts at the local level, sale abandonment of at-risk areas
NASA declared 2023 to be the hot- planners should monitor these In 2023, declared by NASA to be the hottest year on record, Phoenix broke and the buyout of homes and prop-
19 heat records and saw 55 days of at least 110 degrees. Photo by Ash
test year on record. July 3rd was innovations, see how they might be Ponders/The New York Times. erties. A June 2023 report from
the hottest single day since reliable useful in their communities, and the University of Massachusetts in
recordkeeping began in 1880, and work to address the critical chal- concert with representatives from
August saw 170 million Americans lenges of urban heat management. weather events on a collision course 20 million people in previous years. coastal communities across the
placed under dangerous heat advi- with human settlement patterns. In This is a growing challenge also in state identified a variety of comple-
sories. Communities are actively 2022 alone, nearly 33 million people the U.S. More than three million mentary tools for managed retreat,
working to better characterize the Climate displacement across the globe were displaced due Americans lost their homes to nat- including enhanced setbacks, deed
danger posed by extreme heat and on the rise to natural disasters, such as floods, ural disasters in 2022. As climate restrictions, green infrastructure,
to develop strategies and tools for The growing impacts of climate drought, and wildfire. This is far change continues to worsen, these and an array of zoning and planning
mitigating its impacts. The National change have put more extreme in excess of averages hovering near numbers are expected to grow and actions.

Yet even as communities begin hotter and more intense wildfires the past 23 years of U.S. data.
to understand the potential for that in turn release more carbon While this particular crisis has
these actions in tandem with strate- into the atmosphere also increases. drawn international attention, poor
gic retreat and buyout programs, Planners should be aware of this air quality has been a major public
continued development in hazard- dynamic, consult and collabo- health issue for decades, especially
ous areas is still the norm. In North rate with experts, and learn more in underserved communities. In
Carolina, for example, for every about emerging monitoring tools 2023, NOAA, NASA, and a group
buyout, 10 new homes have been that will be critical to adapting to of leading universities launched a
built in floodplains. There is a simi- these challenges in the future. Wild- project to better track the sources
lar dynamic in wildfire-prone areas, fires continue to be a major ongo- of major air pollutants. Private
as new homes are increasingly ing threat to the 44 million homes foundations are stepping up their
being built on the site of previous located in wildland-urban interface efforts globally. For example, the
forest and grassland fires. This is (WUI) areas across the country, and Bloomberg Philanthropies-led
often a result of market and insur- the catastrophic Maui wildfires in Breathe Cities initiative is seeking
ance-based incentives that aren’t August 2023—among the deadliest to provide critical support, moni-
pricing long-term risk into develop- in U.S. history—highlights the vul- toring, and capacity-building tools
ment costs and home prices. Slowly, nerability of all communities to the for communities grappling with air
this dynamic may be starting to utter devastation that wildfires can quality challenges. Air quality has
shift, given recent actions by insur- inflict. been a concern for planning since
ers in California and Florida to no the beginning of the profession.
longer serve homeowners in high- Due to massive wildfires in Canada, New York and Chicago saw more days Planners should continue to engage
with air quality alerts in June and July 2023 than in the past 23 years. Photo
risk areas. This conflict between by Uygar Özel/Alamy Live News. Declines in air quality in efforts to better understand the
meeting the need for new develop- Air quality concerns became a impacts of the built environment
ment while ensuring that this devel- major topic of interest in 2023. The on air quality, and act to reduce
opment is safe from worsening cli- Wildfire as a source of wildfires burned thick layers of massive wildfires in Canada led the impacts of poor air quality on
mate impacts is likely to be a major greenhouse gas emissions peat, releasing massive amounts of to an air quality crisis in cities and communities.
challenge for planners in the com- Wildfires are both a symptom and greenhouse gases into the atmo- communities throughout North
ing years. an amplifier of climate change. This sphere. As temperatures warm America. In June and July alone,
dynamic became a vivid reality in in regions like northern Canada, New York and Chicago saw more
2023, as Canada’s unprecedented Alaska, and Siberia, the potential for days with air quality alerts than in

The Futures of the (Home) Office

Will the changing workplace and housing availability create a better—or worse—work-life balance? Illustrations by Klaus Kremmerz
Scenarios 2034
Housing crisis worsens and the cost of living increases.
SCENARIO D SCENARIO A
TO AFFORD HOUSING, THE 3-DAY WEEKEND IF YOU CAN’T AFFORD A HOME,
IS FILLED WITH A SECOND JOB WHERE WILL YOU WORK FROM HOME?
In-office work required, everyone works a 4-day week.
Fully remote work is the new normal.

SCENARIO C SCENARIO B
THERE’S MORE TIME FOR LEISURE WHEN WITH PLENTIFUL AFFORDABLE HOUSING, WORKING
EVERY WEEKEND IS A 3-DAY HOLIDAY FROM HOME IS CONVENIENT FOR EVERYONE
Affordable housing and mental health facilities are plentiful and the cost of living has stabilized.

Climate Mitigation: Skilled Workers, Tech, and Policies

The 2023 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report indicates that
worldwide warming could reach between 1.4°C and 4.4°C,
depending on the extent of emissions produced. It also
notes, however, that ongoing mitigation efforts are both
slowing the rate of increase of greenhouse gas emissions
and becoming more viable within the global energy sector.
The 2023 Trend Report discussed emerging developments
coming out of the Inflation Reduction Act, which are
reflected here and elsewhere in this report. Additional
strategies have emerged and matured over the past year.
First ever Local Climate were raised: the lack of collabora-

Action Summit at COP28 tion between national and local gov-
A positive signal for planners was ernments to implement national cli-
last year’s COP28 (Conference of mate commitments and the need for
the Parties) in Dubai. It was the more funding from national govern-
first COP where subnational gov- ments for local climate action. This
ernments and related stakeholders development will certainly raise
came together during a Local the voice of local governments, and
Climate Action Summit (co-hosted especially the role of planners, on
by UN Special Envoy on Climate the global climate stage in the com-
2023’s COP28 (Conference of the Parties) in Dubai was the first to hold a Local Climate Action Summit, where mayors Ambition and Solutions Michael R. ing years.
and other local government stakeholders from the U.S. and around the world discussed challenges to climate action.
Image from COP28 Bloomberg livestream. Bloomberg) to discuss multilevel
climate action. Two main issues

Increased support for climate with the need for planners to upskill renewable energy storage and gen-
workforce development to prepare for new federal policies eration are credited with bolstering
Mitigating the climate crisis requires and programs, especially in the cli- the grid in 2023, even as Texas legis-
the adoption of new technolo- mate and energy sectors. lators have aggressively sought to
gies and industries, which likewise restrict wind, solar, and other
entails developing a workforce to renewables. Over the last few years,
support this transition. Currently, Uneven progress some states have made enormous
only one in eight workers glob- for renewables progress in transitioning primarily
ally possesses at least one “green
green The rapid transition to clean to renewables. In South Dakota,
skill”—defined as a skill pertain-
skill energy remains a dominant topic 84 percent of all power generated
ing to climate and sustainability, of conversation in 2024. Invest- comes from renewable sources.
such as environmental compliance ment in solar surpassed investment Iowa leads the nation in the share
monitoring or climate risk man- in oil for the first time in 2023, of energy (64 percent) derived from
agement—while the number of job though global renewable electric- wind turbines. With new federal
postings mandating a green skill is ity generation still lags behind 2030 investments in battery storage
greater than one in five. Paris Climate Agreement targets. technology (a critical element for
To address this discrepancy, in In October of last year, the U.S. incorporating wind and solar into
September 2023 the White House Department of Energy announced the energy grid), there is significant
announced the American Climate $3.46 billion would be put towards potential for more consistent and
Corps, a job training program with
Corps updating the U.S. electric grid Several U.S. states have made enormous progress in transitioning to rapid adoption of renewables
renewables, including Iowa, which leads the nation in the share of energy
the goal of placing up to 20,000 peo- to better accommodate renew- (64 percent) derived from wind. Photo by franckreporter/E+/Getty Images. in planners’ jurisdictions across
ple in jobs related to climate change able energy and be more robust in the nation.
mitigation during its first year. extreme weather. A report from the
Given that many cities are unable to International Energy Agency iden- areas (solar photovoltaics, elec- Texas is the national leader in both
get funding for—or don’t even con- tified more than 50 components of tric vehicles, and lighting) were on renewable and nonrenewable
sider—workforce development in the energy system that are critical track to achieve this by 2050. energy generation, though the state’s
their climate action plans, such fed- to reaching net-zero energy emis- In the U.S., uneven progress on energy grid is still notably fragile as
eral programs provide support that sions, and found that only three renewables is also reflected in an highlighted by major outages in
is currently largely unavailable at the array of energy-related challenges 2021 and consumption restrictions
local level. This also corresponds (and successes) at the state level. in 2022. Recent improvements in

Housing Challenges and Solutions

The current U.S. housing crisis encompasses an affordable
housing shortage, aging housing stock, and surging
homelessness. But new developments in technology and
policy innovations seek to address these multifaceted
challenges. Notably, APA has partnered with the National
League of Cities to launch the Housing Supply Accelerator
campaign, aiming to enhance local capacity, identify critical
solutions, and expedite reforms that encourage collaboration
between communities and devel- “production

production cliff ” caused by con-
opers to better meet local housing struction delays and setbacks spells
needs and provide a diverse range of fewer new homes in the market.
quality housing. Adding to the crisis, the average
American renter is now considered
rent burdened,
burdened paying 30 percent
The affordable housing crisis of median income for rent. This
is worsening stark statistic highlights a significant
The U.S. has a current housing defi- shortage of 7.3 million rental homes
cit of 3.9 million units,
units and the sit- affordable to those with extremely
uation is worsening. Developers low incomes. Furthermore, 30 per-
are anticipating a major drought in cent of U.S. households today are
affordable housing production by single-person households—a record
The ongoing housing crisis has made it difficult to provide adequate and safe shelter for an influx of recent 2025, primarily due to soaring costs high that is placing additional strain
refugees and migrants in major U.S. cities like Chicago. Photo by Jamie Kelter Davis/The New York Times.
and rising interest rates. A looming on the housing market.

Meanwhile, the housing con- proactive inspections and rehabili- Rising demand amidst influx
struction landscape is evolving, with tation initiatives, encourage timely of immigrants and refugees
single-family construction slow- home improvements, reducing The increasing influx of refugees
ing and multifamily construction future costs and rejuvenating aging and immigrants has fueled a rising
gaining traction. Urban, suburban, housing stock. demand for housing, particularly
and small-town settings are all in major U.S. cities.
cities As more peo-
experiencing shifts. In urban Amer- ple arrive, local governments are
ica, housing availability increased Rising homelessness confronted with the challenge of
slightly, driven by population loss. Amidst a confluence of factors, handling the situation. This uncer-
However, suburban areas saw a including a surge in migration,
migration the tainty has forced cities like Chicago
4.5 percent increase in housing winding down of pandemic aid and New York to deploy temporary
underproduction, and small towns programs, inflation, and soaring strategies, but there is a need for
were hit hardest, experiencing a housing costs, the U.S witnessed a permanent housing infrastructure
massive 47.8 percent rise in housing Innovative strategies to address the housing crisis include residential distressing spike in homelessness to integrate newcomers. The situ-
development on faith-based organizations’ land, such as these affordable
underproduction. housing units built by Washington, D.C.’s Emory United Methodist Church from 2022 to 2023. The data paints ation worsens due to NIMBYism
NIMBYism,
These pressing issues demand a and nonprofit community partners. Photo by Joseph W. Daniels, Jr. a troubling picture: an estimated with community members oppos-
focus on expanding the nation’s 653,100 unhoused individuals in the ing the accommodation of refu-
housing stock. Planners play a criti- last year marks a 12 percent increase gees and funding directed toward
cal role in devising traditional and Aging housing stock energy expenses, faulty plumbing, from 2022, and the situation is migrants. This complex scenario
innovative strategies to address the The aging U.S. housing stock pres- insufficient ventilation, and deteri- poised to worsen. underscores the necessity for col-
affordable housing crisis. These ents a growing challenge, despite a orating roofs. In 2021, 2.8 million Many communities nationwide laborative efforts across all levels of
strategies include expanding acces- pandemic remodeling boom.
boom The owner-occupied homes (3.4 per- are allocating funds for affordable government to address the housing
sory dwelling unit development,
development nation’s owner-occupied homes cent) and 3.9 million renter- housing initiatives and amending needs of newcomers in the U.S.
using faith-based organizations’ now have a median age of 40 years,
years occupied homes (8.4 percent) were zoning laws to allow multifamily
land for affordable housing, practic- increasing the need for critical considered moderately or severely buildings in residential neighbor-
ing gentle density,
density eliminating park- maintenance, renovations, and inadequate, while deferred mainte-
inadequate hoods. Innovative approaches, such 3D-printed housing
ing minimums,
minimums and exploring upgrades. Nearly half of owner- nance has led to the abandonment as licensed tent villages and tiny revolution
advancements in 3D-printed homes occupied homes were built before or deterioration of over 450,000 homes, are also emerging as viable
homes As reported in the last two Trend
and tiny homes as housing solu- 1980 and now face issues such as vacant homes in rural communi- solutions. Reports, 3D-printed housing
tions, discussed further below. inadequate water access, rising ties. Housing programs, such as solutions are gaining increased

prominence. The production of the rate. In 2023, Portland

Portland, Oregon, groups have opposed some state and
first two-story 3D-printed houses established its first mass tiny home local government actions, includ-
in Houston and the groundbreaking site, providing quicker access to ing California’s Senate Bill 406,
406
Genesis Collection community of apartments for its eventual 200 designed to streamline the Califor-
3D-printed homes in Georgetown, residents. In California, San Luis nia Environmental Quality Act for
Texas, demonstrate the accelerating Obispo unveiled a tiny home affordable housing, and Minneapo-
progress in 3D-printing technology prototype that is slated to introduce lis’ comprehensive plan to enhance
for construction. 20 tiny homes in the historic area of affordable housing production.
The materials used to build the city. These tiny homes address At the federal level, the Biden
these structures are as diverse as the housing affordability, sustainability, administration introduced new
applications, ranging from conven- and minimalist living. While housing crisis measures,
measures including
tional concrete to alternatives like advocates emphasize affordability $85 million in grant funding. These
recycled plastic, mud, and waste and environmental friendliness, initiatives focus on reforming zon-
materials from rice production. skeptics urge caution against hasty ing and land use, reducing barriers,
As the trend advances, it signi- adoption without studying potential Portland has established seven villages filled with small pre-fab tiny houses expanding financing for energy-
as a form of transitional housing. The city opened its first mass tiny home
fies a transformative moment in land use impacts. Their role in site in August, designed to provide access to 200 residents. Photo courtesy efficient and resilient housing, and
construction technology, offering addressing the housing crisis and of City of Portland/KLik Concepts. promoting commercial-to-resi-
swifter, more cost-effective building homelessness is still up for debate, dential conversions for affordable
methods and holding vast impli- with many city and county land use and zero-emissions housing. Fair
cations for housing accessibility, regulations complicating or prohib- funding for housing are proliferat- executive order suspending certain housing planning and enforcement
affordability, and disaster response. iting the legal development and ing as a response to the country’s laws is facilitating the construction are also gaining attention, with the
occupation of tiny homes and micro housing challenges. At the local of thousands of new homes for res- U.S. Department of Housing and
apartments. level, New York City has proposed a idents of all income levels. Mean- Urban Development proposing a
Tiny homes on the rise plan to create an additional 100,000 while, the Governor of California new Affirmatively Furthering Fair
Tiny homes—compact
homes living spaces homes over 15 years, offering signif- signed a bill designed to expedite Housing rule in 2023 to fulfill the
ranging from 100 to 400 square Expanding government icant support for the city’s residents affordable housing projects, with requirements of the Fair Housing
feet—are gaining in popularity. By initiatives to address the and workforce, while Los Angeles other states,
states including Delaware, Act of 1968. These actions reflect
2028, the global tiny homes market housing crisis has approved plans for an additional Utah, Arizona, and Rhode Island, a commitment to combat housing
is projected to reach $25 million,
million Local, state, and federal govern- 135,000 units in the downtown and also taking action to address the discrimination and proactively pro-
with a 3.5 percent annual growth ment-led policy initiatives and Hollywood areas. In Hawaii
Hawaii, an housing crisis. But environmental mote inclusive communities.

Deep Dive: The Silent Health Crisis

The world is grappling with an ongoing “silent” health crisis that
demands a comprehensive perspective. This crisis arises from
a myriad of challenges, as global public health faces mounting
pressures while health care systems worldwide struggle to meet
ever-growing demands. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these
issues and shined a spotlight on the critical issue of mental health.
Deep Dive
SYMPTOMS OF THE CRISIS. One of health. Additionally, the concern-
the key aspects of this silent crisis ing rise of antimicrobial resistance,
resistance
is the “panic-neglect
panic-neglect” cycle. Lev- exacerbated by the overuse and
els of concern and preparedness misuse of antibiotics, antiseptics,
surge during the peak of a crisis and antifungals, poses an inde-
(like COVID-19), but as the crisis pendent and significant threat to
recedes from the forefront, compla- global health and further increases
cency sets in. This cycle, coupled the challenges faced by the health
with emerging health stressors tied care system. Another significant
to climate change and biodiversity challenge is the severe shortage of
loss, can leave health care systems health care professionals. While this
ill-equipped to handle future global issue was brought into sharp focus
health threats. during the COVID-19 pandemic, it
The largest sustained decline was already a growing concern. The
in global childhood vaccinations in World Health Organization pre- In response to the growing mental health crisis, the U.S. Surgeon General has
prioritized combating loneliness with a framework that highlights the importance of
30 years has been characterized dicts a global shortage of 10 million the built environment in fostering social connection. Photo by FG Trade/E+/Getty
by UNICEF as a “red
red alert”
alert for child health workers by 2030. Images.

Compounding these challenges that silent crises with cumulative

is the growing mental health crisis. impacts can far surpass the impact
Statistics reveal that one in five U.S. of one-off catastrophic events. They
adults experiences mental illness should not be neglected, and con-
each year, and suicide ranks as the certed efforts are needed to address
second leading cause of death them.
among those aged 10–14 and 20–34.
A recent study underscores this SEEKING SOLUTIONS. To address
crisis, showing an almost 40 percent these multifaceted issues, commu-
increase in the use of mental health nities must adopt a holistic view of
services among U.S. adults from health within larger systems. We
Deep Dive
2019 to 2022. Exacerbating factors know that promoting public health
include violence, poverty, isolation, is not solely the domain of the
and loneliness. Significantly, the U.S. health care sector. Planners play an
Surgeon General has prioritized integral role in fostering well-being
combating loneliness.
loneliness His proposed and healthy lifestyles by providing
framework highlights the impor- access to vital components such as
tance of the built environment in Barcelona’s superilles (superblocks) concept, which focuses on pedestrian-friendly healthy food, clean air, places to be
areas and green spaces, serves as a prime example of innovative planning solutions
fostering social connection, empha- promoting health. Photo by Del Rio Bani/Leku Studio. physically active, secure housing,
sizing the role of planning.
planning U.S. and opportunities for social cohe-
mayors are increasingly recognizing sion. Planners should recognize the
the need to prioritize mental health health-related risks are no longer air pollution was estimated to be importance of their partnerships
alongside physical well-being, and perceived as top priorities com- responsible for around nine million with public health and health care
planners play a pivotal role. pared to other global concerns. deaths in 2019 alone. Even though professionals in improving com-
However, even as health chal- This shift may be attributed to more people are impacted by air munity health. This is exemplified
lenges continue to mount, there’s “pandemic
pandemic fatigue,”
fatigue as well as our pollution, they often don’t perceive by recent approaches like “social
social
a troubling trend: people are car- focus on more recent and visible it to be as threatening as COVID-19 prescriptions” for mental and phys-
prescriptions
ing less about them. The Global crises. For example, while COVID-19 because it’s not portrayed as a crisis ical well-being, in which doctors
Risks Perception Survey by the has claimed around seven million in the media, and its impact isn’t as recommend activities such as park
World Economic Forum reveals that lives worldwide over four years, visible. But it’s crucial to recognize walks to address health challenges.

Planners are instrumental in creat- deepening social isolation warrants

ing environments that enable these consideration.
health-enhancing activities, demon- Health systems innovation,
strating their crucial role in these particularly in care delivery, staffing,
partnerships. and funding models, is needed to
Cities such as Barcelona are improve access and provide bettter
leading the way in adopting innova- disease prevention, early detection,
tive solutions. Barcelona’s superilles and complex care in a cost-effective
(superblocks) concept, which manner. This transformation is par-
focuses on pedestrian-friendly areas ticularly critical as we anticipate an
and green spaces, serves as a prime aging and increasingly frail popula-
Deep Dive
example in promoting health. Other tion with chronic health conditions.
cities, including Los Angeles,
Angeles are By embracing these innovations,
taking inspiration from Barcelona’s we can better meet the health care
success and implementing similar needs of our evolving society.
concepts in their urban areas. In As we look toward the future,
addition to tactics like these, plan- governments and businesses are
ners should also explore new prac- Technological advances present opportunities to bolster health care, as innovations faced with the imperative of adding
in virtual reality and immersive technologies are already offering valuable tools for
tices such as “trauma-informed” addressing trauma and mental health concerns. Photo by jxfzsy/E+/Getty Images. a health dimension to their emer-
planning, which infuses trauma-in-
planning gency preparedness plans.
plans This
formed principles into planning adjustment is crucial for ensuring
practices to enhance resilience and care, reducing costs. Innovations of Kyiv.
Kyiv These technologies extend that we are well-equipped to con-
reduce stressors that impact mental in the realm of virtual reality and to therapeutic applications such front the silent health crisis that is
well-being. immersive technologies are already as pain management and men- coming our way. Planners play a
Moreover, technological offering valuable tools for address- tal health treatment, while the pivotal role as partners, fostering
advances present opportunities ing trauma and mental health concept of “biophilia” in the vir- well-being, crafting health-enhanc-
to bolster health care. Like other concerns. Ukrainian refugees, for tual realm provides nature-based ing environments, and collaborat-
sectors, health care can harness instance, are finding solace and benefits through VR. AI chatbots ing with health care professionals
technology to augment capacity support by working through their are also emerging as potential to address multifaceted health
and blend virtual and in-person trauma within a metaverse version companions, although the risk of challenges.

Political Polarization and Societal Division

2023 saw continued developments in societal and
political polarization, both in the U.S. and globally. The
steady corrosive effects of conspiracy theories on public
discourse intersected directly with the world of planning,
as widely accepted concepts such as 15-minute cities or
smart cities became the subject of online and in-person
fearmongering. Increases in antigovernment sentiment
and rising instances of politically Antigovernment sentiment

motivated violence further con- and increased violence
tributed to an atmosphere of mis- The mainstreaming of conspiracy
trust and associated safety fears for theories, along with the widespread
many public officials. States wielded reach of an array of social media
their power to clamp down on both platforms, are leading to increases
speech and progressive policies at in antigovernment sentiment, rad-
the local level, leading to concerns icalization, and in extreme cases,
around politically motivated pre- violence against public officials.
officials In
emption. As polarization becomes 2023, trust in government neared
entrenched within government and record lows, as only 16 percent of
society, planners are struggling to Americans expressed confidence in
find a path forward. the federal government to do what
is right all or most of the time. Plan-
Increased antigovernment sentiment is leading to rising hostility and declining civility in public meetings, prompting ners are often the face of local gov-
stricter rules to protect public officials and local government staff. Photo by Robin Loznak/The News-Review/AP Photo.
ernment in public settings, and are

increasingly noting rises in hostil- INSIGHT FROM OUR TREND SCOUTS

ity, declines in civility, and outright “The rise of antigovernment sentiment in the public has led to an increase
threats to their safety. This is lead- in protests during public meetings, often marked by a loss of civility.
ing to stricter rules around public
Simultaneously, the concept of transparency faces challenges, as many
comment periods,
periods which could have
people now expect to be provided with an exhaustive level of detail on
an impact on planner-led commu-
nity meetings.
every issue.”
—Keith Marvin, AICP, APA STaR
Declining social cohesion

and societal polarization between the richest and poorest, State preemption of local to planning, such as zoning and
The ongoing polarization of soci- and the decline of the middle class progressive actions development review, may also be
ety is a major contributor to anti- are impacting the fabric of com- Aggressive preemption bills in under threat. Many regulatory areas
government sentiment, the growth munities, the civic process, civil state legislatures continue to con- already preempted by states inter-
of conspiracy theories among the engagement, and social interaction. strain local governments’ abili- sect either directly or indirectly with
wider population (some directly Highlighting the extreme effects ties to regulate areas of concern, planning concerns, including inclu-
related to planning),
planning and increasing of polarization, topics of major as first reported in the 2022 Trend sionary zoning, the regulation of
threats of violence. According to the national and international impor- Report. In Texas, state legislators,
Report short-term rentals, rent control, and
World Economic Forum, “erosionerosion tance (such as climate change)
change are through a largely unprecedented rideshare regulations.
of social cohesion”
cohesion is one of the big- actively avoided within certain seg- new state law,
law successfully stripped
gest short-term global risks. These ments of the political spectrum. the ability of cities and commu-
declines are linked to an array of For planners, increasing polariza- nities to create local laws that are
different social, political, and eco- tion and declines in social cohesion more restrictive than the state’s.
nomic causes. COVID‑19-related are a major challenge, particularly This is already impacting workers’
disruptions and major economic given the outsized role that planners rights, as local legislation concern-
shocks such as inflation have been play in public engagement, consen- ing water breaks for outdoor work-
identified as proximate causes in sus building, and building broad- ers has been overridden and banned
some countries. Underlying chal- based community support for local by the state. Given the expansive
lenges such as rapid technologi- actions. and broad nature of the legislation,
cal change, widening wealth gaps it is likely that issues directly related

Persisting Transportation Inequities

Local governments and planners are overwhelmed with
the myriad emerging transportation systems that are
popping up. While previous Trend Reports have focused
on the many innovations in the transportation sector, this
year we want to emphasize how current practices in how
cities respond to these new systems create more inequities
and are harming community members. Today’s more
diverse transportation systems need a different approach
to transportation planning.
Inequitable transportation programs, stating safety concerns

planning practices favoring as the main reason. Meanwhile,
the car over 2,000 people die in car acci-
Many transportation sector innova- dents every year in France, and cars
tions provide new alternatives to the remain on the streets.
car that are more sustainable, safer, In the U.S., inequitable, car-cen-
healthier, and potentially easier to tric transportation planning prac-
deploy in equitable ways. How- tices continue to support the trans-
ever, the myriad new transportation portation system that uses up most
systems entering the market have of the space in our cities, pollutes
overwhelmed some cities, lead- the air we breathe, and kills thou-
A more equitable approach to transportation planning, like the Vision Zero efforts undertaken by Jersey City, New ing to pushback. For example, in sands of people every year. In 2022,
Jersey, can not only increase mobility options but also decrease pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities. Photo courtesy of
City of Jersey City. 2023, Paris banned shared e-scooter the U.S. Highway Trust Fund,
Fund which

is primarily supported by federal INSIGHT FROM OUR TREND SCOUTS thriving local economies where Eliminating parking
taxes on gas, spent $52 billion on “Cargo bikes and e-bikes are convenient in people can shop in walkable places, minimums
highways and only $7.2 billion on areas with well-established bike lanes, but reduced greenhouse gas emissions, Eliminating parking minimums is
transit. Improvements in fuel effi- and better environmental outcomes. another way to reduce the num-
fostering a cultural shift is essential in regions
ciency and the transition to electric The latest such example is Stock- ber of cars. It also lowers the cost
lacking the necessary infrastructure. The need
mobility will require a rethinking holm, where starting in 2025 all
holm of building new housing, which
of this funding source, which still
for adequate biking infrastructure transcends diesel or gas-powered vehicles will is urgently needed given the per-
focuses mainly on how to finance mere convenience—it’s fundamentally an be prohibited from entering certain sistent housing crisis (see Hous-
infrastructure for cars. equity issue.” areas of the city. ing Challenges and Solutions).
Solutions This
However, the demand for alter- —Norman Wright, AICP, Parameter Some U.S. cities are moving in movement has been trending in
native transportation systems such these directions, looking at Europe the U.S. for several years; accord-
as e-bikes has been increasing in the for new ideas. For example, Los ing to the Parking Reform Network,
Network
U.S. over the last few years, and the Decreasing traffic safety— New Jersey,
Jersey which achieved its goal Angeles is piloting Barcelona’s more than 1,400 cities have elimi-
popularity of bike-share programs but only in the U.S. of zero traffic deaths on city streets superilles (superblocks) concept nated parking requirements in some
and the market for cargo bikes also Among industrialized nations, in 2022, more still needs to be done. (see also Deep Dive: The Silent portion of their cities, with at least
continue to grow. However, the the U.S. is one of the deadliest for Planners can push for improve- Health Crisis),
Crisis and the new car-free 40 abolishing or reducing parking
rising numbers of traffic deaths pedestrians. Pedestrian deaths went ments at a range of scales, from Culdesac communities in Atlanta requirements citywide. Examples
and decreasing traffic safety, as well up by 77 percent from 2010 to 2021 long-term transportation plans and and Tempe, Arizona, offer residents include San Jose,
Jose the biggest city
as the lack of appropriate and safe in the U.S., while in most other Complete Streets policies to quick- enhanced shared mobility and tran- to approve the removal of parking
infrastructure for these emerging industrialized countries they have build tactical urbanism installations sit options. Planners can begin con- minimum requirements, and
transportation systems, show how gone down. In 2022, 7,500 pedes- and demonstration projects. versations with community mem- Austin, Texas,
Texas which in 2023 passed
inequitable current transportation trians were killed in traffic acci- bers about parts of their cities where a resolution to remove all manda-
planning is. Planners must continue dents, a 41-year high. People of cars might or might not be appro- tory parking requirements for new
to design and advocate for safer color are disproportionately affected A global trend toward priate and what alternative develop- developments. Planners should con-
streets for all users. by this trend. And in 2021, almost car-free cities ment patterns and mobility options tinue to evaluate parking require-
1,000 bicyclists died in motor vehi- Globally, cities are trying to min- might look like in those areas. ments in their communities and
cle crashes, a five percent increase imize car traffic or to remove cars work on right-sizing or eliminating
from 2020. While Vision Zero gains from certain areas completely. parking minimums as appropriate.
more attention in the U.S., with Research shows that car-free envi-
good examples such as Jersey City, ronments result in healthier people,

INSIGHT FROM OUR TREND SCOUTS

Vehicle charges based The uncertain future variety of alternative transportation
on different evils of public transit
“Across the nation, communities are ending options available today (as men-
Some cities are adopting new Most U.S. public transit systems are parking minimum regulations, which will tioned above) and in the future (see
charges based on different negative still struggling post-COVID-19. gradually reduce the allocation of space for Emerging Forms of Transportation).
Transportation
impacts of cars. In the UK, Lon- With commutes declining due to automobile parking. In already developed
don and other cities and towns have working from home or hybrid work, areas, this newfound space will be an
started to enforce emission-based revenue from transit fares has not opportunity to improve urban life by MaaS
parking charges to tackle traf- come back to pre-pandemic levels. Assigning space by means of trans-
repurposing it for other purposes.”
fic-related air pollution. A similar More funding from the federal gov- portation instead of purpose isn’t
—Jim Olson, P.E., Better Roads Ahead
idea has been put in place in Lyon, ernment is needed to improve the working anymore. As first reported
France, where parking charges quality and safety of public tran- in the 2022 Trend Report,
Report the
increase with the weight of the car sit and to adapt existing infrastruc- concept of Mobility as a Service
to discourage larger cars (which are ture systems to new climate realities, decarbonizing transportation (see the global dynamics around natu- (MaaS)—the integration of various
usually more polluting, need more such as extreme heat. Across the the 2023 Trend Report),
Report it also ral resources needed for these tech- forms of transport and transport-re-
space for parking, and cause dead- globe, from India to Norway to New comes with many negative effects nologies, questions such as the need lated services into a single, compre-
lier accidents) from entering the York, transit agencies are trying to
York that continue to raise concerns. for battery recycling are still not hensive, and on-demand mobility
city. In the U.S., bills related to fees get people back to using transit by Even Norway, the country with the resolved, though innovations and service—can change the way people
based on vehicle weight have been making it free for all or for specific highest rate of EV ownership, is tak- potential solutions are being pro- move. MaaS is already deployed in
discussed in California and Colo- population groups. But to increase ing a step back as the transition to posed. Recent reports about hack- many places across the globe. The
rado. New York City will use con-
rado ridership, transit agencies will need e-mobility has resulted in increased ers targeting EV chargers raise con- global MaaS market was estimated
gestion pricing to reduce traffic and to improve the quality of their ser- car ownership and multiple equity cerns about cybersecurity,
cybersecurity especially at about $236 billion in 2022 and is
related pollution in Manhattan and vices and systems, not just maintain concerns. With nearly 72 percent in the light of personal data that projected to grow to about $775 bil-
to fund its public transit system. the status quo. of public EV chargers situated in is being shared with EVs. Safety lion by 2029. A holistic, compre-
Planners should watch to see how the wealthiest 20 percent of coun- is also a question, as the heavier hensive approach toward equitable
these examples will develop and ties in the U.S., equity concerns are weights of EVs make crashes more transportation planning and fund-
how concerns related to inequitable Electric mobility is only already visible. Simply replacing deadly and put extra stress on road- ing is needed. MaaS can potentially
practices can be resolved. a part of the solution gas-fueled cars with EVs is not a ways and parking garages. Planners help to identify the needs and target
While e-mobility is a part of sustainable solution. In addition to and local governments must look the current gaps in our transporta-
the solution when it comes to beyond EVs and embrace the wide tion systems.

The Value of Youth

The 2023 Trend Report outlined the risks of youth to a healthy environment, which is
disillusionment and disengagement based on issues why the state will have to consider
such as climate change, technology use, and meaningful climate action in projects moving
forward.
actions related to equity, diversity, and inclusion (EDI).
Gen Z and Gen Alpha know that the current failure to act
on climate change will result in even worse impacts on
Decolonizing the future
their future and their children’s futures. Additionally, they While EDI has become a priority
grow up surrounded by technology; they know how to in planning and many other pro-
fessions, and topics such as racial
equity, gender responsiveness, our
use it, and they want to use it. Last, Youth climate action aging population, and planning
but certainly not least, younger gen- In the U.S. and elsewhere, youth are for all abilities have gained a lot
erations are expecting meaningful taking action, and in many cases of attention, planning with youth
action when it comes to EDI, hav- successfully. In last year’s Trend and younger generations is only
ing new and redefined perspectives Report we reported on a landmark slowly making it into the mix. Dif-
on what personal identities may lawsuit filed by young people against ferent professions and organiza-
look like and how far they can go. the government of Ontario based on tions have started to emphasize the
Change is not always easy, even for its weak climate targets. This year, a importance of youth engagement
planners who are the change agents similar story ended successfully in when thinking of or planning for
of our communities. Young people Montana, where youth sued the state the future (e.g., UNESCO’s Futures
are starting to question the status government for its failure to include Literacy in Higher Education ini-
quo and want to change it. Plan- climate change considerations when tiative). A trend toward challeng-
In Montana, youth plaintiffs sued the state government for its failure to ners should encourage and support approving fossil fuel projects. The ing the conventional tech-centric
include climate change considerations when approving fossil fuel projects—
and won. Photo by Janie Osborne/The New York Times. these efforts. judge ruled that this was unconstitu- and white-dominated way of decid-
tional and that everyone has a right ing what the future will or should

look like is emerging, emphasizing Location sharing for safety INSIGHT FROM provide important inputs into plan- as pensions and retirement systems.
OUR TREND SCOUTS
the idea of decolonizing the future and well-being ning processes and assessments of Meanwhile, young people want to
by including the ones who will live Digital solutions to challenges in “The first young what younger people need, helping enter tech and related emerging
in it—today’s younger generations. the built environment are becom- generation of planners understand the “why” fields despite a growing need for
Engaging youth can empower them ing part of everyday life, especially professional urban behind these trends. geriatric specialists and in-home
and give them the opportunity to for younger generations who grow planners in Mexico health aides; declining numbers of
make change happen. up with technology as an integral is thinking about youth will further exacerbate this
The importance of including part of their lives. Younger genera- Aging populations and shortage. Furthermore, an aging
their legacy and
younger generations in planning tions are now applying digital tech- declining birthrates population will consume fewer
how to change the
processes has been recognized and nologies to resolve some of their According to projections from sev- goods and services, potentially
is gaining more attention as well. challenges, such as safety concerns,
status quo.” eral national and international orga- slowing the economy, reducing the
C40 has entered the third round anxieties, and the need to connect —Rodrigo Junco Lopez, nizations, global population growth tax base, and shrinking budgets for
Technologico de Monterrey
of its Students Reinventing Cities with friends. How effective these will slow over the next few decades, public investment. On the other
program, harnessing the creativity
program solutions are and whether they may reach its peak in the next 40 to hand, these trends could lead to
of young people in different cities cause additional negative impacts 60 years, and potentially decline positive climate and environmental
to reinvent their futures. And in on mental health remain to be seen. But while location tracking may after that. In some countries, this is impacts and more affordable hous-
the U.S., Detroit won a 2023 APA While privacy has become be an attractive digital solution for already happening: China recorded ing availability.
National Planning Award for its a concern in a world of constant young people and the challenges negative population growth in Additionally, increased interest
innovative way of engaging youth online presence and social media, they face in our communities, it 2022, and U.S. birthrates have been in and funding for fertility research
and fostering their collaboration younger generations value the also poses risks, such as providing declining for decades. In 2021, (including topics such as artificial
with community leaders. It is now option to share their location to opportunities for stalkers and other the Pew Research Center found wombs and other ways to bypass
the first major U.S. city to complete resolve safety issues. Downloads of bad actors. As mentioned in Deep that 44 percent of childless adults the need for pregnancy) and life-
a comprehensive neighborhood the tracking app Life360 have dou- Dive: Planning for a Hybrid World,
World between the ages of 18 and 49 (up extending measures will most likely
plan backed with investments that bled since 2021, with over 33 million planners will have to consider from 37 percent from 2018) say they gain more attention and support
puts youth at the center of planning monthly active U.S. users; the tag digital solutions—both their possi- will not likely have children, citing in this context. Perhaps it will also
and decision-making. Including #findmyfriends has over 50 million bilities and their perils—when plan- economic and social pressures as result in a different perspective on
young people in planning processes views on TikTok; and Snapchat ning for the real world. The infor- primary reasons. the value of youth of today and the
can also result in more interest in allows for real-time user location mation coming from these apps, The aging population will add promise they hold to improve our
the planning profession and a more tracking through its Snap Map.
Map as well as data from open-source growing pressure on health care and tomorrow.
robust pipeline of future planners. applications such as SafetiPin
SafetiPin, can other social security services, such

A World With Less Water

From a circular economy
Expert Insight
water scarcity at higher frequency treating it for use, treating it again
to “fit for purpose,” and magnitude. Over the past after use, and then releasing the
a holistic approach is several decades, the promotion of treated water back into the envi-
needed. water conservation and efficiency ronment, we will need to rede-
has lowered per capita consump- sign our urban hydrologic cycle
By Chi Ho Sham, PhD tion of water in urban areas of the to reduce, recover, reclaim, reuse,
Chi Ho Sham, PhD, was the 140th developed world. However, there and recycle our water resources.
President of the American Water are unintended consequences It is important to extract as much
Works Association (AWWA). He associated with living with less value as we can from our finite
currently serves as the Chair of the water. For example, most existing water resources by maximizing the
New England Section of AWWA, wastewater collection systems usefulness of the resource. Urban
a Trustee of the AWWA Interna- were designed to rely on gravity development strategies will there-
Illustration by Christian Blaze tional Council, and the Chair of the and wastewater flow volume to fore need to incorporate rainwater
AWWA Stormwater Management move waste to treatment plants. harvesting, prevent toxic chemical
Standard Committee. Failure to move wastes effectively releases, advance nonpotable and
can lead to collection system fail- potable water reuses, and recover
How should the scarcity of water ures. In other words, urban devel- other resources (such as energy
resources influence urban development strategies must consider and materials). Moreover, planning
opment strategies in the U.S.? Is it the modified urban water cycle must extend beyond the urban
feasible to adapt to living with when planning new infrastructure. boundaries to other communities
less water? There are many different to preserve natural water bodies,
Water scarcity can be caused strategies to tackle water scarcity, manage watersheds in a holistic
by nature and/or humans. With which include the development manner, and protect natural infra-
increasing populations, demands and implementation of a circular structure (e.g., forests).
on water resources, and climate economy of water. Instead of tak- We should also consider the
variability, we are encountering ing water from the environment, “fit for purpose” approach, that is,

deliver water of different quality

levels appropriate for different INSIGHT FROM OUR EXPERT
uses (e.g., doing laundry, water- “Instead of taking water from the environment, treating
ing plants, and drinking). Such it for use, treating it again after use, and then releasing
Expert Insight
changes would involve deploying the treated water back into the environment, we will
new infrastructure and monitor- need to redesign our urban hydrologic cycle to reduce,
ing systems of the future through recover, reclaim, reuse, and recycle our water resources.”
thoughtful planning processes.
What responsibilities do urban

planners and planning practices public and decision-makers to Planners and other professionals
have in addressing the emerging address various water crises. working together and deploying a
water crisis? Collaboration with other variety of suitable tools would con-
For quantity, it has to do with professional organizations— tribute to mitigating water crises in
too much or too little (i.e., floods e.g., AWWA
AWWA, AWRA
AWRA, NALMS
NALMS, and the future.
or droughts). For quality, we are WEF—can provide platforms for
WEF
dealing with biological and chemi- interdisciplinary collaborations to
cal contamination. Land and water solve complex problems at the
are intricately linked. To develop individual, community, and organi-
a piece of land in an urban set- zation levels. For example, the pro-
ting, water is required to support tection of drinking water supply
the people and related economic sources such as lakes, reservoirs,
activities. Working with water streams, and aquifers relies on
planners and managers, urban and protecting the land contributing
regional planners can adopt an water to the water sources. Land
integrated approach to water man- use management practices can
agement through land use regula- help to reduce stormwater runoff,
tions, infrastructure development, increase groundwater recharge,
land conservation and watershed and minimize releases of biolog-
protection, and education of the ical and chemical contaminants.

The trends
we need to
prepare for
We are headed towards a polycrisis
based on current global dynamics
related to climate change, scarcity of
resources, economic warfare, and a $
food crisis, among other challenges.
In addition, a myriad of technological
innovations in the transportation,
production, and other sectors are being
developed, some with the promise to
resolve current challenges. Many of
these developments are starting to
impact communities at the local level
and planners need to prepare for them.
Check out APA’s Trend Universe for

more emerging trends planners need
to prepare for.

Global Dynamics and a New Economic Landscape

Economic transformation is changing the way we live and companies from specific markets.
work, leaving a profound impact on industries and regions This includes U.S. bans on new
across the globe. The trends below collectively underscore investments in high-tech Chi-
na-based industries.
industries U.S. companies
the intricate connections between economic shifts and
are reducing their investments in
technological development and the clear interdependence
China and actively seeking alter-
between global dynamics and local impacts. They signify
native manufacturing locations
a fundamental reshaping of industries and economic like India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and
landscapes on both national and international scales. Bangladesh, with Mexico surpassing
China in foreign direct investment
by U.S. firms. Meanwhile, China
Increased deglobalization governments, and differing sustain- is experiencing worker shortages
and economic warfare ability approaches are spurring the due to evolving preferences of its
Globalization increased after trend toward rethinking external young workforce, who are choosing
WWII, accelerating to hyperglo- dependencies, redefining trusted alternative career paths that are less
balization in the 1990s and 2000s. partners, and reframing what resil- demanding.
The financial crisis in 2008 slowed ience looks like. The U.S. Inflation Reduction
this trend, and recent events are Geopolitical goals are becoming Act’s tax credits and subsidies for
causing a shift towards deglobal- an increasingly deciding factor in local green technologies are raising
ization. Supply chain disruptions
ization economic policy and international concerns in Europe, which is also
during the COVID-19 pandemic trade. Desires for self-sufficiency launching an anti-subsidy investi-
resulted in increased onshor- and independence from rival pow- gation into electric vehicles from
ing (domestic outsourcing instead ers are resulting in an increase China that are flooding the market.
A resurgence in U.S. manufacturing is changing the economics of many of offshoring) activities. In addi- in friendshoring and onshoring, And inbound or outbound invest-
communities through new investments in factory construction, such as
Hyundai’s first U.S. plant for manufacturing electric vehicles in Ellabell, tion, the Russian-Ukrainian war, supported by subsidies, policy, ment screening practices are being
Georgia. Photo by Russ Bynum/AP Photo. ideological differences between visa bans, and even exclusion of considered in the U.S., Switzerland,

and other places. Arkansas recently influenced by this manufacturing Ohio already making strides. Major the implementation of sustain- urban spaces globally.
passed legislation to ban foreign resurgence, which is being led by investments from companies like able energy systems requires a local Related to the current global
companies from owning agricul- the transportation equipment and Google and ongoing construction focus. tensions, the federal government,
tural land to protect this vital eco- food manufacturing sectors. Land of semiconductor facilities signal more than half of state govern-
nomic sector and its farmers. use and zoning adjustments will the transformation of these areas ments, and even some cities have
be needed to accommodate the into thriving technology centers, Smart city tech in times recently taken action to forbid
construction of new facilities being stimulating innovation and job of economic warfare the use of TikTok on government
Reshoring manufacturing built in locations ranging from creation. Urban technologies have reached devices due to the relationship
jobs deserts to resort towns. The influx the status of geopolitical tools and between TikTok’s parent company
All these developments align with of manufacturing jobs is also driv- strategic assets and, much like tradi- ByteDance and the Chinese gov-
the current push toward the return ing housing demands, shaping the Global collaboration tional resources, they are now at the ernment. However, some states
of U.S. manufacturing, supported by housing landscape in areas experi- and local solutions forefront of international disputes are seeking to go further. Montana
new federal incentives to promote encing manufacturing growth. in the energy sector and power plays. The escalating has passed legislation banning the
domestic manufacturing of compo- The energy sector is showing move- clash between the U.S. and China use of TikTok on personal devices,
nents such as computer chips and ments toward both globalization further underlines these geopolitical starting in 2024. This far-reaching
electric vehicle parts. The manu- Tech Hubs and deglobalization. The green tech dimensions. The “Smart Cities” action has drawn criticism from
facturing sector has added nearly The Biden administration’s Tech transition in the energy sector is idea often associated with Western free-speech advocates, who argue
800,000 jobs since early 2021, reach- Hubs initiative aims to transform making local energy generation models of urban development and that the legislation is a clear viola-
ing employment levels not seen 31 regions into globally competi- through renewable sources more the “Safe Cities” concept champi- tion of the First Amendment. Many
since 2008 and exceeding the peak tive innovation centers, addressing popular. Estimates by the Interna- oned by China (aimed at enhanc- are skeptical that the law will actu-
of the previous business cycle for regional disparities and promot- tional Energy Agency predict a mas- ing public safety through surveil- ally take effect, especially as a fed-
the first time since the late 1970s. ing technology-driven economic sive decrease of the market share lance technologies, among others) eral judge preliminarily blocked the
But workforce challenges persist: growth in traditionally industrial of the global oil market compared are more than just technological law in November 2023. As planners
as of March 2023, there were still regions. The $500 million invest- to other domestic energy sources. frameworks. They represent strate- seek to engage with the public in
693,000 open positions in this sec- ment seeks to turn both urban and Global collaboration will still be gic narratives, equally prevalent in new and innovative ways, especially
tor, and experts think there may be rural U.S. metro areas into tech needed for other resources pow- both technical-cultural arenas and through the use of popular social
around 2.1 million unfilled manu- innovation hotspots focusing on ering the electrification of every- emerging markets. These concepts media applications and platforms,
facturing jobs by 2030. industries such as quantum com- thing, however (see the 2023 Trend demonstrate the broader compe- such restrictions could be a major
Planning and infrastructure puting, biotechnology, and clean Report). But while climate change
Report tition in the realm of technology concern and potential hindrance to
development are significantly energy, with regions like Central policies need global cooperation, and its role in shaping the future of effective outreach.

Immersive City for and by the People

Urban spaces are expanding beyond just physical realms
due to AI-powered digital twins and the metaverse, offering
new ways for community members to engage with cities and
influence decisions. Urban AI holds immense potential for
future city development. AI-centric smart city platforms are
forecasted to grow from $693 million now to $6.5 billion by
2032. Additionally, the global smart city tech market is set to
rise from $121.1 billion in 2023 to $301.2 billion by 2032.
However, this progress brings chal- planners and end users jointly
lenges, including threats to inclu- develop solutions. This process
sivity and equal access due to the emphasizes deep user engagement
digital divide.
divide It’s crucial to consider facilitated by new technologies.
how planners can ensure human Consequently, there’s growing
rights are upheld in this digital era. skepticism towards traditional
experts and a surge in the creator
economy. Communities are becom-
From participation to ing more proactive, self-regulated,
co-creation and interconnected. Start-ups like
Urban dwellers are increasingly UrbanistAI, leveraging advanced
UrbanistAI
embracing do-it-yourself meth- AI capabilities, are empowering
ods and self-organization. A trend users to step into the role of “citizen
New technologies allow community members to co-create with planners, as demonstrated by these multiple toward co-creation is emerging as planners,” allowing them to actively
reimaginings of an urban area in Tokyo, created with Generative AI. Photos courtesy of Urbanist AI.
a collaborative approach in which co-design their surroundings.

While this makes the planning pro- advanced digital tools, they can technological shift, ensuring a from urban environments. This
cess more complex and less predict- allocate more time to collaborate digital environment that is open, data, when processed through
able, it also ensures a more inclusive with their communities on envi- secure, trustworthy, equitable, and AI algorithms, yields valuable
approach. sioning a preferred future. inclusive for EU citizens, busi- insights and applications for the
Such technology-driven self- nesses, and the public sector. city’s sociospatial dynamics. The
organization and co-creation could Immersive technologies pro- integration of AI and Internet of
significantly reshape the future Quiet metaversing vide planners with tools to Things (IoT) technologies is antic-
of the planning profession and its The metaverse, another tool offer- enhance community participation, ipated to gain momentum, with an
approaches. Crowdsourcing ing a deeper level of engagement, making it more inclusive and equi- emphasis on data-informed deci-
offers a novel means to engage a is far from obsolete, contrary to table. Yet, these tech-intensive sion-making and forward-looking
broader audience in the planning what some might believe. As high- tools often demand broader inter- analytics. In Germany, the QTrees
process and to gather data more lighted in the 2022 and 2023 Trend disciplinary expertise and collabo- initiative, an example of the prac-
initiative
efficiently and accessibly. For Reports, while the metaverse’s
Reports ration with diverse teams to tical applications of Urban AI, is
instance, the Japan-based start-up initial hype cycle peaked in the achieve optimal results. Interdisci- a research collaboration between
Tekkon turned infrastructure data beginning of 2023, its develop- plinary expertise and advanced Birds on Mars and the Roads and
collection into a game.
game By selling ment continues at a steady pace.
pace New York’s Metropolitan empathy skills are becoming ever Parks Department of Berlin’s Mitte
Transportation Authority is looking
this data to utility companies, they Cities and countries are also rec- to capitalize on the metaverse in more important in the planning district. The service employs an
aim to reduce maintenance costs ognizing its potential. A study by ways that protect and monetize profession. AI-driven predictive model to
its brand, unlike this unauthorized
and increase efficiency. Similarly, ThoughtLab revealed that out of video game created in 2018. determine the optimal times to
in the realms of mobility and 200 cities globally, 44 are invest- Screenshot by Everyday Arcade. water trees in a city of 3.5 million
air quality, the European project ing to ensure their infrastructure The next wave of urban people.
WeCount empowers residents to is compatible with the metaverse. innovations As first reported in the
kickstart policymaking initiatives By 2030, approximately 700 cities and monetize its iconic brand Advancements in Urban AI 2022 Trend Report,
Report digital twins
using fully automated data mea- are expected to implement various within video games and virtual will influence both the tangible have become a crucial instrument
surements. Planners can recognize types of metaverse infrastructure, reality platforms. In a significant (“hard”) and intangible (“soft”) for urban management and plan-
and adapt to this trend instead of as projected by ABI Research.
Research For move, the European Commission aspects of urban systems, trans- ning in numerous cities across the
relying on their established exper- example, New York City’s Metro- introduced a strategy in the sum- forming the operation and gover- U.S. and globally. Their scope is
tise. With the aid of AI and other politan Transportation Author- mer of 2023 focusing on Web 4.0 nance of cities. Urban AI refers to now expanding from city dash-
ity is looking to capitalize on this and virtual worlds. This strategy any system that uses data sourced boards to models that span entire
trend, aiming to both safeguard is designed to guide the upcoming metropolitan areas. A pioneering

example of this is found in personal privacy in the coming

Orlando, Florida, which boasts a decade. As data collection inten-
regional digital twin that spans an sifies with the increasing digi-
impressive 800-square-mile area, talization of our everyday lives
integrating real-time content. and the capabilities of emerging
In the upcoming decade, we technologies expand, individu-
can anticipate a shift as urban and als are set to face higher levels of
regional simulations evolve to be surveillance and a greater expo-
more accurate, intricate, and valu- sure to misuse of personal data
able. The emerging cognitive city by both public and private enti-
concept, which is an advanced
concept ties. Often, this monitoring will
form of the smart city, emphasizes occur without sufficient measures
proactive urban systems that to ensure anonymity or without
deliver personalized and intelligent the explicit consent of the individ-
services. This evolution will likely uals involved. Research findings
challenge established deci- show that by using just 15 demo-
Digital twins, such as the Orlando Economic Partnership’s digital twin of the Orlando, Florida, region, are becoming
sion-making protocols and plan- graphic attributes, 99.98 percent key tools for urban management and planning in cities around the globe. Photo courtesy of City of Orlando.
ning systems. To adapt to these of U.S. residents could be re-iden-
changes, planners should enhance tified from anonymized datasets.
their tech literacy and seek solu- Moreover, in the U.S. data can be age, the World Economic Forum’s guardians of the well-being of the
tions across various sectors, includ- sold with relatively little regulation Global Coalition for Digital Safety communities they serve, they must
ing the gaming industry, private or limitations. has taken a proactive step in estab- prioritize privacy and safety over
tech firms, and various start-ups. The ubiquitous spread of lishing the Global Principles on efficiency, thus fostering greater
devices that collect data, coupled Digital Safety.
Safety These principles trust and collaboration on pre-
with AI systems reliant on this serve as a guideline, outlining the ferred solutions.
Human rights in data, potentially paves the way for translation of human rights in the
the digital world unprecedented control over indi- context of our increasingly digital
The latest World Economic vidual freedoms and autonomy. world. Planners already use an
Forum Global Risk Report high- Recognizing the imminent threat abundance of data for informed
lights a concerning trajectory for to human rights in this digital decision-making. However, as the

The Futures of Decision-Making in Planning

How will planners do their work when AI and politics intersect? Illustrations by A. Richard Allen
Scenarios 2044
AI capabilities have massively improved. Many planning tasks can be done by this technology,
including data-based decision-making.
AI IS THE PLANNING ALL IN FAVOR
Political polarization and societal division have been declining, making

DIRECTOR SAY “AI”
AI is taking over AI is everyone’s

decision-making, new coworker.
Political polarization and societal division have worsened
as no consensus
can be found Planners,
due to political together with
as parties grow more at odds on policy issues.
polarization and the community,
community consensus easier to achieve.

societal division. collaborate with
AI to make the
right decisions for
the future of the
community.
GOING NOWHERE DEMOCRACY RULES
FAST
Planners are
No one wants to or consensus builders
can make decisions. working with the
community to make
Societal division
human-centered
and political
decisions jointly.
polarization bring
everything to a halt. Civilized discourse
is possible in a
united community.
Lack of trust in AI and ethical concerns have prevented most planners from using this technology.

Job Evolution and Revolution

The rapid pace of technological and social change is vehicle manufacturing plants in the
having a profound impact on how people do their jobs. agreement.
AI is proving to be a major disruptor in the workplace, as For planners, this shift toward
worker empowerment amid tech-
workers and employers struggle to understand its utility and
nological change could signal some
potential. A tight labor market and increasing education
changes on the ground. This might
costs have given rise to a recent shift toward skills-based
include the economic health of
hiring and away from a focus on traditional degrees. Amidst communities, the uncertain impacts
this tumult is a wave of strikes highlighting the growing of technological innovations on
different industries, and potential
effects on contracting and procure-
confidence of workers in some and the United Auto Workers, ment of newly unionized industries.
industries and their desire to play as well as a near-strike by UPS
an active role in the changing nature employees. Analysts note that
of work. these actions have largely capital- The contentious role
ized on post-COVID conditions of AI in the workplace
that have empowered workers in a AI has exploded onto the scene
A continuing shift towards tight labor market. Critically, these this year (see The AI Era),
Era espe-
worker empowerment strikes have centered not only on cially in the workplace. Tech com-
Following a wave of labor organiz- securing higher wages and better panies are rolling out AI compan-
ing in 2022, more recent develop- conditions, but also on the role of ions for a huge variety of existing
ments have centered on increas- new technology and innovations tools and software. Microsoft is
ingly high-profile strike actions in within well-established fields. In leading the way with CoPilot
CoPilot, which
High-profile strike actions in 2023 were prompted by rapid technological key industries. This includes strikes the case of autoworkers, one con- will be integrated into the entire
and social change in several key industries, including the Writers Guild of
America, the Actors Guild of America, and the United Auto Workers. by the Writers Guild of Amer- cession won by the UAW was the Office suite of apps. Zoom is already
Photo by Jenna Schoenefeld/The New York Times. ica, the Actors Guild of America, inclusion of workers at two electric offering tools that can summarize

meetings, take reliable notes, and The impacts of AI on plan- Given the potential impacts There has been major action at city reskilling efforts are underway
send out action items and next steps ning and planners are expected to of AI on the practice of planning the federal level in 2023 as well. The in Long Beach, California, where
to participants. be significant as well, especially as itself, planners should consider how Office of Personnel Management residents are collaborating in identi-
Contentious battles over the AI tools like ChatGPT
ChatGPT, computer deeper integration of AI into the released a new handbook to help fying tech-inspired community pilot
role of AI in the workplace were vision, and others have the capacity
vision more technical aspects of planning other federal agencies implement projects that will build skills in soft-
highlighted as part of the recent to complement the efforts of local work might require bolstering skills skills-based hiring. And, as noted in ware development, cybersecurity,
Writers Guild strike.
strike Guild mem- planners as described in APA’s PAS on the human side of planning. Climate Mitigation: Skilled Work- and information technology.
bers were extremely resistant to Report 604, Planning with Artificial This might include core planning ers, Tech, and Policies,
Policies last year saw Reskilling and upskilling are
studio efforts to integrate AI into Intelligence. This is further dis-
Intelligence functions and skills such as interfac- the launch of the American Climate also becoming important inputs to
the writing and production process, cussed in the PlanTech section of ing with the community, building Corps, a major new Biden admin-
Corps planning careers. Emerging technol-
fearing that this may be the first this report. consensus among stakeholders, and istration initiative to better train ogies, societal shifts, and increasing
step to abandoning human writers coordinating across a variety of gov- and equip young people with skills environmental challenges require
entirely. Ultimately, writers scored ernment agencies. related to expanding clean energy, human and tech skills that so far
a major victory for the WGA on Jobs insulated from protecting natural resources, and have not been part of the planner’s
the AI front, with the new contract the AI revolution advancing environmental and cli- expertise. APA launched an Upskill
forbidding AI from producing While fears of replacement and Skills-based hiring mate justice. Planners initiative in 2022 to fill
source material, or from writing redundancy of jobs due to AI are and reskilling needs The turn toward reskilling is some of these gaps and make sure
or rewriting literary material. This rising, recent reports also point to a There is an ongoing notable shift also being driven by major tech- planners are equipped with the
struggle is something of a signal for set of jobs and fields that might be toward skills-based hiring in both nological change. The World Eco- skills they need to be successful in
the future of the role of AI in the more insulated from AI than oth- the public and private sectors. nomic Forum in a 2023 report their jobs today and in the future
workplace generally. A recent report ers: those that are heavily based Dubbed “tearing the paper ceiling,” noted that 60 percent of companies (see also Upskilling: Evolving Plan-
from Goldman Sachs on the effects around complex interpersonal rela- the turn toward discrete skills and are concerned about existing staff ning Competencies and Skills).
Skills
of AI on large-scale economic tionships or that might require the away from university-based degrees lacking critical skills, while more
growth finds that up to two-thirds direct provision of complex ser- is increasingly seen as a better way than half are concerned about
of all current jobs might be exposed vices, care, or maintenance. These to attract potential talent in a tight attracting new workers that can
to some degree of automation, with include the nursing and trades labor market. In 2022, Maryland led fill critical skills gaps. Chicago is
Generative AI being a potential fields (e.g., plumbing, electrical, and the way in no longer requiring four- addressing tech skills gaps in the
substitute for nearly a quarter of all construction), though continued year degrees for many state jobs. By public sector by creating a technol-
current work. worker shortages in these industries mid-2023, 12 other states had taken ogy skills apprenticeship program.
program
are a major element of uncertainty. similar actions. Broader tech-focused and smart

Moving Toward a Polycrisis

The climate emergency and its close connection to current
global challenges, such as food insecurity, the migrant crisis,
economic warfare, resource scarcity, and social disputes,
highlights the high risk of failing to mitigate and adapt to
climate change on a global scale. Natural resources are
dwindling at an unprecedented rate across the globe as
the need for both food and shelter for the world’s growing
population intensifies competing demands for land.
Beyond the massive importance of Natural ecosystems nearing

forests, wetlands, oceans, and other the point of no return
natural ecosystems to global bio- The dynamic relationship of pol-
diversity, continued destruction of lution, biodiversity loss, climate
the natural world is also a direct change, natural resources con-
threat to the well-being of people sumption, and socioeconomic
worldwide. Holistic approaches are factors is a grave cause for concern,
needed to resolve the developing especially over the next decade.
polycrisis, in which some intercon-
polycrisis According to the World Economic
nected crises are competing while Forum, half of the world’s eco-
Forum
others require similar solutions. nomic production is considered
moderately to highly reliant upon
Natural resources are dwindling as the world’s growing population continues to fuel the destruction of ecosystems nature, and the collapse of ecosys-
on land and at sea, including seagrass meadows and other critical ocean habitat. Photo by AlexeyMasliy/iStock/Getty
Images Plus. tems will not only lead to irrevers-
ible ecological damage but also

catastrophic economic and societal ocean ecosystems and their signif-

outcomes. Potential consequences icant and complex interconnection
include increased frequency of zoo- with the health of the entire planet
notic diseases,
diseases heightened water adds additional uncertainty to the
stress, worsening potentially violent future unfolding of climate change
struggles over dwindling resources, impacts.
decreases in crop yields and nutri-
tional value, disastrous flooding,
loss of natural flood protection sys- Presidential action for nature
tems, and loss of crops dependent conservation
upon pollinators and nature-based Conservation of land and oceans
services. is vital to preserving vital ecosys-
No single strategy will solve or tems and slowing the impacts of
reduce climate change effects on its climate change. President Biden
own. Food system transformation has supported his commitment
efforts, enhanced sustainability of to conserve 30 percent of land
production and consumption pat- and oceans by 2030 by launching
terns, conservation prioritization, the $1 billion America the Beau-
and climate/hazard mitigation tiful challenge in April 2022 and
approaches that benefit nature are Climate change and related rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and natural disasters are increasingly ordering the creation of an Ocean
threatening global food supplies and heightening food insecurity worldwide. Photo by JJ Gouin/iStock/Getty
important to prevent reaching eco- Images Plus. Climate Action Plan,
Plan which was
system tipping points. Nations, released in March 2023.
regions, and communities will need In addition, in August 2023,
resilient and supportive infrastruc- The ocean’s centrality to effects of climate change, biodiver- three times as fast, could be gone the Biden administration released
ture, tools, and data to help avoid sustainability sity loss, and development issues in 100 years if not prioritized now. guidance on how communities can
ecological collapse and the destruc- Our world’s oceans are crucial to not just regionally, but across the Globally, 50 percent of salt marshes, assign value to environmental ser-
tion of vital natural resources. global environmental and eco- world. These “blue
blue carbon”
carbon eco- 35 percent of mangroves, and vices when conducting cost-benefit
nomic sustainability. When oceans systems, which store five times 29 percent of seagrass meadows analyses. Given the role of these
are healthy, the natural benefits as much atmospheric carbon as have been degraded or destroyed types of analyses at the local level
that they provide can mitigate the tropical forests and can absorb it since the 1950s. The threats to in evaluating development, this

guidance could help communities Europe the food crisis is primarily INSIGHT FROM OUR TREND SCOUTS
better understand and account for a matter of unequal access of low- “As we move towards a more circular economy where we minimize taking
the benefits of natural systems and income populations to high-quality, virgin resources, will we look at our landfills and cities as resources and
their critical function in the health healthy food, climate impacts on
start to mine the urban environment for critical minerals from electronics
and well-being of people and the crops in states such as Texas and
and lithium batteries, or for building materials?”
environment. Georgia, as well as countries such
—Tanya Sakamoto, City of Calgary
as Spain and Italy, are becoming
increasingly common, and the U.S.
Increasing food insecurity continues to lose productive farm- for pasture, the growth in intensive cobalt is expected to increase to ever single-year increase in global
The number of people affected by land throughout the country to farming methods means we now 450 percent of the amount pro- displacement, surpassing the record
global food insecurity has risen sprawling development at an alarm- need more land to grow animal feed duced in 2018 by 2050. In this con- set during and after the unfolding
from 135 million in 53 countries in ing pace. such as soy and grain. text, the climate crisis and related of WWII, and these numbers are
2019 to 345 million in 82 countries And while climate change is Innovations and potential green transition can pose a risk for expected to continue rising.
in 2022. Those affected lack consis- impacting where crops can grow, future developments on the future new global dependencies, leading Immigration into major Amer-
tent access to the nutrition needed food production is also a major of food production and agriculture to potential economic warfare and ican cities has also been surging
to sustain normal childhood growth driver of climate change and biodi- are described in Deep Dive: The other conflicts. since 2022 and is expected to
and an active, healthy lifestyle. versity loss. Food production and Future of Food Production and continue, exacerbating existing
Climate change and related ris- consumption account for almost Agriculture. affordable housing shortages and
ing temperatures, extreme weather 30 percent of greenhouse gas Increasing global migration overwhelming shelters for the
events, and natural disasters play an emissions and 70 percent of bio- and the failure of local unhoused (see Housing Challenges
important role here, among other diversity loss. In addition, we use Increased potential for migrant integration and Solutions).
Solutions Local governments
factors such as economic and social about 70 percent of all freshwater resource-related conflicts The number of global refugees has are struggling to adapt and integrate
disruptions and land competition. for agriculture and over 35 percent The trend of electrification of every- dramatically increased over the past hundreds of thousands of newcom-
Developing countries are dis- of global land area for agriculture thing, which aims at greenhouse gas two years. According to the UN ers, highlighting the need for com-
proportionally affected by this and animal farming. Meanwhile, emission reduction to combat cli- Refugee Agency, as of May 2023 prehensive immigration reform at
crisis compared to the industrial- freshwater supplies are running dry mate change, will require resources more than 110 million people were the federal level. For now, cities like
ized world, and this is expected to due to climate change, pollution, and metals needed for batteries displaced globally due to human Chicago and New York are deploy-
worsen with an anticipated increase and mismanagement, with a 40 per- and other technologies related to rights violations, violence, persecu- ing temporary strategies, but the
in food demand by about 60 percent shortfall predicted in 2030. renewable energy generation. The tion, general conflict, and climate U.S. needs permanent infrastructure
cent by 2025. While in the U.S. and And while we are using less land demand for graphite, lithium, and change. This represents the largest to integrate newcomers.

Deep Dive: Planning for a Hybrid World

People have always lived hybrid lifestyles. We’re routinely blending
multiple approaches, identities, or value sets in our daily activities as
we seek to achieve work-life balance, forge a multicultural identity,
or do any number of other things that make us human. However,
during the COVID-19 pandemic, the concept of a “hybrid lifestyle”
took on a new meaning: participating in a mix of in-person activities
Deep Dive
and online substitutes for in-person activities.
Some of the most obvious comes to resolving challenges in the

examples of potential online sub- built environment, such as acces-
stitutes for in-person activities are sibility, or when co-creating with
remote work, virtual learning, tele- the community in equitable ways
health, virtual conferences, e-com- (see Immersive City for and by the
merce, and online gaming. For each People).
People
of these activities, many people Previous Trend Reports have
may choose to participate online documented trends associated with
on one occasion and in person on hybrid work, retail, health care, and
another. The emergence of this type community engagement, as well as
of hybrid lifestyle points to a need the digital infrastructure that makes
for planners to integrate a new set hybrid lifestyles possible. The
of considerations into their work. APA-Lincoln Institute special report
In addition, this blending of real Digitalization and Implications for
world and digital world experiences Planning explored how the rapid The blending of real world and digital world experiences has the potential to provide
unique opportunities for planning, pointing to a need for planners to integrate a new
has the potential to provide unique adoption of digital versions of set of considerations into their work. Photo by Agencja Fotograficzna Caro/Alamy
opportunities for planning when it once-analog processes is affecting Stock Photo.

the communities planners serve. But here to stay. Now is the time for
how might planning change if planners to start considering hybrid
planners were to consider spatial options when trying to resolve chal-
and virtual needs and opportunities lenges in the built environment.
in tandem?
PLANNING FOR A HYBRID
HYBRID SPRAWL. Among full-time WORLD. So far, planning for a
workers who can perform their jobs hybrid world has mainly been about
from home, hybrid work arrange- planners responding to digitalization
ments are more common than fully and its effects on the built environ-
remote positions or fully in-person ment. Much has been said already
Deep Dive
positions. Hybrid participation in about the dramatic effects remote
higher education and shopping are work and e-commerce have had
similarly widespread and common- on the demand for office and retail
place. Many students attend a mix space, the vibrancy of downtowns,
of online and in-person classes, and and the fiscal health of cities. As
many shoppers browse in-store but important as these effects are, they
buy online or buy online and pick are likely just the beginning of an
up in-store. Telehealth has quickly Hybrid approaches that blend the virtual with the real world, such as augmented extensive realignment of land uses
reality, offer new solutions to enhancing urban experiences and resolving challenges
gone from fringe to mainstream. in the built environment. Photo by grinvalds/iStock/Getty Images Plus. and activities in communities across
And livestreamed concerts, confer- the country. For example, planners
ences, and other events have made are already helping communities
it possible for people who can’t or telephone or through the mail. Yet, rare or nonexistent, future advances reallocate land previously dedicated
don’t want to attend in person to demand remains for branch banks, in robotics, 3D printing, or the to office and retail to housing and
“be there” from anywhere. check-cashing stores, and payment metaverse could open new hybrid other uses and identify opportuni-
For some activities, such as kiosks, and social media certainly opportunities. ties for new retail and office uses
banking, bill paying, and socializing, hasn’t eliminated house parties and While the possibilities and pop- in strategic locations. While local
mobile platforms and applications in-person meetups of all kinds. Even ularity of specific hybrid activities economic development has tradi-
have vastly expanded on previous in domains where online substi- will continue to evolve, it’s safe to tionally focused on attracting and
opportunities to participate by tutes for in-person activities are assume that hybrid lifestyles are retaining firms, communities may

need to shift their focus to attract- is not where it ends. Considering of safety and protection. Planners built environment, and public partic-
ing workers and promoting home- hybrid options, planners may need might want to consider similar con- ipation evolving from digitalization
grown businesses. Housing supplies to rethink transportation system cepts in their work. For each activ- and hybrid lifestyles, it will be just as
will need to expand and diversify objectives and design, shifting their ity, planners may need to consider important to integrate hybrid solu-
to accommodate hybrid lifestyles, focus from enhancing mobility to how online options relate to broader tions into the work planners do to
including more space for home ensuring accessibility, with cascad- community objectives, such as equi- enhance the experience in the built
offices and more coliving
coliving/coworking ing effects on mode prioritization, table access to economic and civic environment in more equitable and
spaces. facility design, and system mod- opportunities and efficient use of potentially more efficient ways. The
However, in addition to this eling. What if the construction of public resources. future of planning might be about
response to the digitalization trend, additional highways could be pre- One thing is certain: as more planning for a hybrid world.
planners might want to proactively vented by providing digital access activities move online, communi-
Deep Dive
start considering how hybrid solu- to certain systems and services? ties will need to find new ways to
tions might provide opportunities to Similarly, this could be an oppor- accommodate digital infrastructure
overcome barriers and constraints tunity to rethink how we plan for and minimize the digital divide.
posed by the physical world. public spaces and their accessibility, And planners may need to build
A well-known example that plan- as an extended variety of equitable or strengthen relationships with
ners have started to embrace over utilizations can be provided through technology experts and upgrade
the last several years is online public blending the virtual with the real their own skill sets to keep up with
participation. However, even here
participation world. Many museums have been new trends and technologies that
planners still have much work to using augmented reality (AR) appli- may influence the prevalence of
do. The ongoing evolution of hybrid cations to enhance the experiences online versus in-person activities.
lifestyles may require newer and of their visitors. A similar approach Upskilling may also be necessary
better online public engagement could be used to enhance urban for planners to help communities
methods, and planners will need design experiences in more equita- understand the benefits and trade-
to continuously adjust methods to ble ways. offs associated with prioritizing one
meet process objectives, integrating As briefly mentioned in method over another.
a mix of online and in-person par- The Value of Youth,
Youth younger gener- These are just a few potential
ticipation opportunities into every ations are already using digital tools considerations, and while planners
planning effort. to enhance their experiences in the will need to continue responding to
But community engagement built environment, creating a sense other implications for land use, the

Emerging Forms of Transportation

Research suggests that private vehicles worldwide
will be increasingly supplemented by emerging
forms of transportation, including intermodal transit,
autonomous vehicles, micromobility, and shared mobility.
Consequently, some projections have U.S. car sales
dropping by up to 30 percent by 2035 relative to 2015.
Changes will also be seen in the commercial sector, with
projects already underway to transform shipping by way
of drones, electric trucks, and digi- Advanced air mobility

tal twins to track deliveries. As dis- nears liftoff
cussed in the 2023 Trend Report,
Report As first reported in the 2022 Trend
electric vehicles (EVs) are perhaps Report, the concept of flying cars
Report
the greatest coming shift, inducing keeps moving closer to reality. A
changes in governance including EV variety of different electric ver-
incentives and taxation of mileage tical takeoff and landing vehicle
rather than gas. Land, air, and sea (eVTOLs) prototypes are now being
transport will require new and dis- tested, and the global urban air
parate forms of infrastructure and mobility (UAM) market is projected
oversight, and planners will need to to reach more than $15 billion by
prepare to integrate these needs into 2030. Several companies, including
With the global urban air mobility market projected to reach over $15 billion by 2030, companies are starting to test their work. Alef Aeronautics,
Aeronautics Archer
Archer, Volocop-
a variety of different electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles in the U.S. and elsewhere. Photo courtesy of Joby
Aviation. ter, and Joby Aviation,
ter Aviation have received
FAA exemptions to operate in

U.S. airspace for research and devel- help them prepare for the coming accidents and lawsuits have made Growing investment High-Speed Rail Project alone has
opment and have begun piloting of this potentially disruptive new regulators and consumers wary of in U.S. high-speed rail created over 11,000 union jobs,
jobs with
test flights in different cities. This transportation sector. the technology. AVs have been fac- Significant investments in high- 70 percent benefiting disadvantaged
technology has attracted airlines ing a flurry of major issues, includ- speed rail are reshaping transpor- communities in the historically
in particular, which are partnering ing sudden stoppages that have tation in the U.S. The $1.2 trillion challenged Central Valley. However,
with eVTOL companies to estab- Autonomous vehicles caused accidents and prevented U.S. infrastructure bill allocated even with these notable benefits,
lish routes between airports and struggle to deliver on emergency response personnel an historic $170 billion for the the construction of new high-speed
downtowns. promises from reaching their destinations. In enhancement of railroads. High- rail infrastructure in the U.S. is sig-
Critical to the success of UAM Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have October 2023 a woman was pinned speed rail can provide numer- nificantly more expensive and often
is the construction of vertiports— made some progress since the 2022 beneath a Cruise vehicle after she ous environmental advantages by takes far longer to complete than in
hubs for eVTOLs—and companies Trend Report,
Report as prominent AV was hit by a driver-operated car in replacing air travel, personal car countries in Europe and around the
are already negotiating deals for companies have been successful in San Francisco. Later that month, the trips, and even long-distance truck- globe. But given these recent major
their development in the UK and securing local licensing agreements California Department of Motor ing. Among other projects under
ing investments in high-speed rail, it’s
Australia, with the FAA also releas-
Australia and in bringing consumer vehicles Vehicles halted Cruise operations development, new Amtrak Acela clear that the federal government
ing vertiport design standards.
standards to market. However, both manufac- in the city, and shortly thereafter high(er)-speed trains will begin and several states are increasingly
Integrating these structures into turers and taxi fleets have struggled Cruise opted to pause operations operations in 2024, connecting interested in the potential climate,
existing environments may pose to deliver on hefty promises amid of its remaining fleet, prompting its Boston, New York, and Washing- transportation, and economic ben-
a challenge, especially given the major safety concerns. CEO to resign. ton, D.C. However, a critical chal- efits of widespread high-speed rail
number that will be required (likely More than 40 AV companies Similar to concerns about lenge to high-speed rail imple- deployment.
20–30 for dense cities,
cities plus twice have licenses to drive in California widespread EV adoption, critics mentation across the U.S. remains
that number of landing pads). Other alone, with Waymo and Cruise worry that AV expansion will dis- outdated infrastructure that can’t
barriers include safety, operations, having the largest fleets. In August incentivize public transit use and support high-speed service. Interest sparked in truck
regulations, and public perception 2023, both companies were given impede pedestrian mobility. Plan- High-speed rail can also stimu- electrification
of the technology. Though wide- clearance to operate in San Fran- ners should continue to monitor late economic growth across various While electric passenger cars
spread deployment of UAM is still cisco, and both also had a presence the challenging rollout of AVs and sectors. Projects like the California are already becoming normal-
a long way off, planners can look in Austin and Phoenix with expan- consider the potential implications High-Speed Rail and the Brightline ized, larger EVs such as freight
to PAS QuickNotes 91, “Urban
Urban Air sion to more cities pending. Tesla of widespread deployment of this West, which will connect Las Vegas
West trucks and buses have been slower
Mobility,” and a forthcoming PAS
Mobility has deployed its Autopilot software technology at the local level. and Southern California, are driving to materialize. Change, though,
Report on advanced air mobility to to thousands of vehicles on the economic growth with strong union appears to be on the horizon. In
road, though a string of high-profile worker participation. California’s less than a year after California

voted to ban new sales of gas-pow- INSIGHT FROM

OUR TREND SCOUTS
ered cars by 2035, it has expanded
on this target to mandate that “With an aging
50 percent of all heavy-duty trucks population and the
sold in the state be fully electric increasing cost of
by the same year. While this has labor, we are seeing
prompted concern from truckers, automation and
recent data from the North Amer-
robotics happening
ican Council for Freight Efficiency
shows that electric medium- and
across all sectors of
heavy-duty trucks on the market the economy.”
can travel an excess of 300 miles —Lynette Cheah, PhD
Singapore University of
on one charge. Long-haul routes Technology and Design
still pose a challenge, however, and
may require more stops to charge
along the way. Swappable batter- the fulfilling of critical functions
ies have promise to resolve that “Friendly robots” like LIKU, a robotic teaching facilitator providing education to seniors in Seoul, South Korea, can be within cities may increasingly fall
used to fulfill a wide range of community needs. Photo by Imago/Alamy Stock Photo.
issue for heavy-duty trucks as well upon robots and other autonomous
as personal EVs, though the global technologies. This includes mun-
resource consumption implications purchase at the end of the plan. to accommodate these changes in are already coming, trends point dane but vital services, such as street
of increased battery production Other types of large vehicles are both urban and rural areas. to the potential for robots to fulfill cleaning, public safety,
cleaning safety and transit
remain (see Persisting Transporta- also beginning to go electric, with a variety of other functions within services. With potential widespread
services
tion Inequities).
Inequities Another concern Portland, Oregon, unveiling its first society. Seoul has recently devel- adoption of these recent innova-
is the up-front expense, with elec- electric garbage truck and Amtrak Planning for robots oped plans for a robot-friendly tions looming, planners will need
tric trucks costing up to three times debuting its first electric bus route Meanwhile, robots in all shapes and city, proactively envisioning the
city to consider how this new technol-
as much as diesel ones. To help in Seattle. Though not yet wide- sizes are entering our cities, offer- wide-ranging integration of robots ogy can be effectively integrated
alleviate this burden, Mack Trucks spread, the electrification of large ing new transportation options and into everyday life. In nations grap- into their cities and communities to
recently introduced a subscrip- and heavy-duty vehicles has begun, beyond. While personal delivery pling with the challenge of low ensure they won’t disrupt accessibil-
tion program for its medium-duty and planners must be prepared devices that deliver packages and birth rates, especially in Europe and ity of public spaces.
electric truck, with an option for meals in the air and on the ground Asia, caregiving for the elderly and

Continuing Changes in Work and Retail

In the wake of the post-pandemic landscape, our evolving returned to workplaces faster than
world of work and consumer behaviors is dramatically their U.S. counterparts. Planners
reshaping cities and communities. From the rise of must closely monitor these evolving
preferences as to how, when, and
hybrid work models and shifting urban demographics
where people work, as the unpre-
to innovative conversions of office spaces, the exploration
dictability of future work arrange-
of four-day workweeks, and emerging e-commerce trends,
ments has a significant impact on
this multifaceted transformation presents both challenges infrastructure, transportation, and
and opportunities for urban planners. As we delve into city development patterns.
these interconnected trends, it Planning for a Hybrid World).

World A Downtowns revive,
becomes clear that planners must 2023 Pew Research Center survey suburbs expand, and
navigate these dynamic shifts to found that 41 percent of remote-ca- Zoom towns wonder
shape resilient, adaptable, and inclu- pable workers now follow hybrid Contrary to predictions of a doom
sive cities for the future. schedules, up from 35 percent in loop, downtowns are proving their
loop
January 2022. During that time the resilience. The trajectory of recov-
number of people working from ery varies across urban landscapes,
Post-pandemic work trends home full-time decreased from 43 as each city has its unique dynam-
continue to evolve to 35 percent, but this is still signifi- ics. Despite well-publicized chal-
As the pandemic recedes, the world cantly higher than the seven percent lenges such as crime and shifts in
of work continues to evolve. In the who worked from home pre-pan- work patterns, cities like Chicago
post-pandemic U.S., a dominant demic. Worldwide, over one- and New York City are experienc-
Emerging retail trends include increasing interest in purchasing secondhand trend is the adoption of a hybrid third of desks remain unoccupied ing a resurgence in population, with
goods as a conscious lifestyle choice, both through online resale platforms
and in brick-and-mortar thrift stores. Photo by RyanJLane/E+/Getty Images. work lifestyle combining remote throughout the week, though Asian Chicago boasting more downtown
and in-office work (see Deep Dive: and European employees have residents than before the pandemic.

Although only cities in the South exodus of people who turned to administration launched a com- New twists on e-commerce Another look at
have fully regained their pre-pan- these towns during the pandemic? mercial-to-residential conversion Along with the work landscape, secondhand goods
demic growth rates, numerous cities These uncertainties leave Zoom initiative in October 2023. Plan- the nature of retail continues to At the same time, we are seeing
in the West are witnessing a resur- towns at a crossroads, contemplat- ners should explore these poten- evolve. A new twist on e-commerce the increasing adoption of second-
gence in population. The message ing their future. tial opportunities to reshape down- is live shopping,
shopping in which brands hand goods as a conscious lifestyle
is clear: downtowns are not fad- towns and provide much-needed sell products through livestreams choice. Spurred by pandemic-in-
ing away; they are evolving. At the housing for residents. on digital platforms, frequently in duced supply chain issues, rising
same time, suburban and exurban Office-to-residential partnership with influencers. Live inflation, and the growth in digital
growth rates are surpassing those of conversions gain interest shopping is reshaping how con- resale and peer-to-peer platforms,
core cities. This trend underscores The reduced demand for office Governments explore the sumers engage with products and higher-income and younger pop-
the growing appeal of living in out- spaces due to remote and hybrid four-day workweek brands, emphasizing real-time ulations are joining lower-income
lying regions, reflecting the shift work has resulted in rising Last year’s Trend Report highlighted interaction. In 2023, live shopping groups in purchasing used items,
towards remote work. This narrative U.S. office vacancy rates, which four-day workweek pilots and their was estimated to generate $32 bil- from clothes to furniture and even
of transformation and adaptabil- reached record highs in the sec- successes in the private sector. Now lion in U.S. sales. Additionally, with plants. This market is projected to
ity showcases the dynamic nature of ond quarter of 2023. This presents this trend has made it into the pub- the retail industry moving towards reach $325 billion by 2031, under-
our cities and underscores the need an opportunity for office-to-resi- lic sector, with states including Cal- an omnichannel approach, social lining the growing interest in more
for planners to closely monitor and dential conversions: one study sug- ifornia, Hawaii, Maryland, New selling—deliberate use of social sustainable consumption patterns
be prepared for these changes. gests 34 percent of office buildings York, Pennsylvania, and Washing- media interactions to build relation- mainly led by Gen Z.Z In addition
“Zoom
Zoom towns”
towns such as Bend, in 14 major North American mar- ton exploring bills to promote or ships with the customers as a central to tracking the potential impacts
Oregon, saw substantial growth kets could be potential candidates. mandate this shift. At the federal element of the sales process—has of the changing retail landscape as
during the pandemic as tech work- But office-to-multifamily conver- level, U.S. Rep. Mark Takano rein- become an integral part of the sell- noted above, the secondhand trend
ers from Silicon Valley and Seat- sions remain relatively rare because troduced a bill to lower the standard er-buyer interaction. Studies show suggests planners may also want to
tle moved in, causing an almost of regulatory and market challenges workweek from 40 to 32 hours. If that 78 percent of social sellers out- consider whether their communities
28 percent surge in average home and building standards.
standards Mayors this idea of a shortened workweek perform their peers who do not use have spaces that can accommodate
prices. However, the recent return- in several U.S. cities are consid- gains traction, workers will rejoice social media. Planners should con- repair and repurposing, allowing
to-office policies of tech giants like ering loosening rules to expedite while planners will need to consider tinue to track the impacts of these residents to engage in secondhand
Google, Microsoft, and Amazon office-to-residential conversions; potential impacts on transportation, and other evolving e-commerce and upcycling activities.
are raising questions about the other potential solutions include fee transit, and the continuing evolu- trends on local economies, trans-
future of these communities. What waivers and tax incentives. To fur- tion of the workplace. portation networks, and land-use
will be the negative impacts of the ther accelerate this trend, the Biden patterns.

The U.S. Infrastructure Crisis

Updating critical
Expert Insight
Infrastructure systems have a The planning community has
infrastructure will require long history of being built under been struggling with legacy sys-
interdisciplinary separate planning processes with tems that are expensive to adapt to
professional engagement siloed ownership and responsi- changing urban forms and needs.
and reimagination. bilities, and then being impacted Most infrastructure was installed
by neglectful maintenance and over the past 100-plus years, much
By Bill Cesanek improvement. serving development built before
Bill Cesanek, AICP, is a Vice Presi- At least three major challenges environmental advocates and
dent and Practice leader for Infra- face U.S. infrastructure. First is disadvantaged communities had
structure/Urban Planning at CDM the enormous and costly need to the voices they are gaining. These
Smith and co-leader of the APA revitalize and improve our legacy new voices suggest that we need
Water + Planning Network.
Network infrastructure. to focus our efforts on reimagining
Illustration by Christian Blaze Second is the demand for infrastructure for the next 100 years
Over the last decades, the ASCE’s smarter planning for future infra- and rethink how we fix the infra-
Report Card for America’s Infra- structure that leans more on sus- structure that served us for the past
structure has repeatedly given bad tainable solutions and recognizes 100 years.
grades for U.S. infrastructure in all trends in land use change affecting
areas, painting a picture of a dire urban infrastructure, such as con- What is the planner’s role and
infrastructure crisis. Drawing from version of retail and office space. what can planners do to mitigate
your experience in the industry, And third is recognizing the this crisis and prevent it from
what would you pinpoint as the importance of creating new mech- worsening in the future?
main infrastructure challenges anisms to more broadly disburse Approaches to catch up on
facing the U.S. in the next decade the Bilateral Infrastructure Law and maintenance and improvement of
given this current state and Inflation Reduction Act monies, legacy infrastructure, while simul-
expected additional impacts from authorized by Congress to address taneously attending to equity,
climate change? infrastructure needs. health, and environmental issues

associated with legacy infrastruc-

ture, are emerging.
INSIGHT FROM OUR EXPERT
Planners are moving ahead
“Several evolving planning processes, such as asset
in both traditional and innovative
management, hazard mitigation planning, public
Expert Insight
ways. Standard tools, like compre-
engagement, scenario-based capital planning, and
hensive/sustainability planning, zon-
geospatial analysis, along with financial requirements
ing, and development review, will
for renewal funding, are expanding the tools available
continue to play key roles, but with
to planners.”
broader community input to set
direction and computer AI/machine
learning support. Several evolving
planning processes, such as asset infrastructure systems, including among all the APA Divisions now
management, hazard mitigation engineers, landscape architects, recognize the interdependencies of
planning, public engagement, architects, scientists, ecosystem the energy-water-food-transpor-
scenario-based capital planning, experts, and sociologists (and tation-equity nexus. The tools that
and geospatial analysis, along with more!). planners use must quickly evolve to
financial requirements for renewal We are now entering an era of meet this growing challenge.
funding, are expanding the tools transformation in how we plan for
available to planners. Important infrastructure. It is no longer suffi-
new sustainability measurement cient that infrastructure meets the
systems are being developed, like demands of growth. Communities
the Institute for Sustainable Infra- want to maintain existing infrastruc-
structure’s Envision sustainability ture, but they increasingly seek to
rating system. foster transformational change.
Perhaps most important of all is APA offers an expanding set
a shift to recognize that it requires of guidance to planners on how
the interdisciplinary engagement to address these issues, includ-
of infrastructure professionals ing the PAS Reports Planners and
to create coherent mechanisms Water and Planning for Infrastruc-
for maintenance and planning of ture Resilience.
Resilience The conversations

The signals
we need
to learn
about and
watch
“The future is already here—it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
Looking at the signals or potential future trends, this quote by science-

fiction writer William Gibson seems like a perfect fit. Not knowing what
direction items in this section will take, we may want to keep them on
our watchlist for now and learn more about them. We are looking at
potentially game-changing technological advancements that might
impact how we will do our work, what we may eat, where we might live,
or how long we may be able to live, among many other things.
Check out APA’s Trend Universe for more signals and potential future trends.

Innovations in the Energy Sector

As renewables like solar and wind grow their market share,
emerging challenges in energy efficiency, storage, capacity,
and transmission are starting to take center stage. Many
places are taking a second look at nuclear power to meet
increasing demand, though this sector is increasingly
disrupted by new technology and global politics. Entirely new
energy sectors such as fusion power hold promise to help
meet global energy needs, though the real-world applications
for this and other nascent technologies are still uncertain.
Energy efficiency through impact of traditional building mate-

innovative construction rials. CarbonCure Technologies
practices stores carbon within concrete, sig-
The construction industry is shift- nificantly lowering its footprint.
ing towards eco-friendly practices, This technology has been licensed
including the use of lumber, which to 700+ customers in 30 countries,
sequesters carbon and emits fewer with Amazon’s upcoming Arlington
emissions than concrete. Stock- headquarters using it in 90 percent
holm Wood City,
City a massive 60-acre of their concrete.
mass-timber development, plans to The adoption of green construc-
host 7,000 offices and 2,000 homes, tion and growth in climate-friendly
Hosting 7,000 offices and 2,000 homes on 60 acres, Sweden’s Stockholm Wood City will be the world’s largest setting new eco-friendly standards. financial markets is projected to cut
mass-timber development, exemplifying a shift toward eco-friendly practices in the construction industry. Illustration
courtesy of Atrium Ljungberg/Henning Larsen. Additionally, innovative solutions the construction industry’s carbon
are reducing the environmental footprint by 23 percent by 2035 and

unlock $1.5 trillion in new invest- and at much larger scales in China breakthroughs in storing the energy
ment opportunities in emerging and South Korea.
Korea There are con- produced by renewables like wind
markets over the next decade. This cerns that large-scale use of floating and solar and efficiently trans-
trend is significant as it promotes arrays may cause unforeseen mitting that energy to where it is
sustainable building practices and damage to local ecosystems in needed on demand. Major invest-
encourages a shift away from car- natural lakes, though there is ments in building grid resilience
bon-intensive materials, influencing significant potential for their use in are leading to price declines in bat-
construction standards and codes. reservoirs. Much like other forms of tery storage systems, and emerging
Moreover, it fosters circularity in the renewable energy, the growth of this technologies, such as water batter-
construction industry, which could technology would likely lead to local ies and sand batteries,
batteries are contribut-
have far-reaching implications for conflicts around the use of natural ing to the diversification and inno-
sustainability goals. areas for the siting of renewables. vation in this space. As all forms of
renewables spread, these technolo-
gies could be a boon to climate mit-
Floating solar arrays Generating and storing igation and grid resilience, though
An emerging approach to solar energy from the soil planners may begin to encoun-
installations, floating solar arrays An experimental class of new bat- Floating solar arrays like the Department of Defense’s 1.1 MW system in ter some of the more typical prob-
Fort Bragg, North Carolina, are an emerging approach in solar energy
(“floatovoltaics”) are a demon- teries aims to both generate and development. Photo by Sharilyn Wells/Fort Liberty Garrison Public Affairs lems inherent to siting energy
strated technology with some store energy from the natural Office. infrastructure.
significant upsides. At large scales, decomposition of soil. Bioo
Bioo, a Bar-
they can cover up to 30 percent of celona-based start-up, has been
lakes or reservoirs, with added developing a series of panels that significant within the agricultural from major agricultural corpora- Differing takes on
benefits of decreasing evaporation can be buried beneath the soil to sector, as these biological batteries tions that may benefit from signifi- nuclear power
in times of drought and reducing capture latent energy from bio- may prove to be useful for an array cant cost and labor savings. There are more than 400 active
algae blooms. These arrays also stay logical processes. This energy can of necessary sensors for monitor- nuclear power plants across the
cooler than land-based arrays, be used on site to power a vari- ing crop health currently powered world, generating about 10 percent
resulting in more efficient collection ety of potential uses,
uses such as irri- by chemical batteries that must be Solving the storage problem of electricity globally, but countries
and storage. Floating solar arrays gation systems and above-ground changed regularly. Though the tech- Futureproofing energy grids and are taking differing approaches to
are already in active use at Fort lighting. The applications might be nology isn’t yet being developed at enabling a large-scale transi- this controversial energy source.
Bragg in the U.S., the Netherlands,
Netherlands scale, Bioo is attracting attention tion to green energy will require Germany shut down its last nuclear

power plants in April 2023, while

in Asia nuclear power is on the Extracting energy
rise, with 21 plants currently under from the air
construction in China
China. The first Long the domain of science fiction,
new American nuclear reactor in technology that extracts energy
30 years came online in April 2023, from the air itself has taken a few
but there doesn’t seem to be much small steps toward reality. First
current appetite in the U.S. for fur- emerging in 2020, “air generator”
ther nuclear development. technology is based on the same
Closing nuclear plants without principle behind clouds and the
adding other low- or zero-emissions formation of lightning by capital-
sources of power could lead to izing on the latent energy in ambi-
major emissions increases. Adding ent humidity. Recent innovations
to these challenges, smaller modular have successfully demonstrated this
nuclear reactors,
reactors which had once technology with common porous
been thought to solve some of the materials (such as wood), and at
issues related to highly radioactive Georgia’s Plant Vogtle, the first new American nuclear power plant in 30 years, came online in April 2023. Photo larger scales than previously shown.
courtesy of Georgia Power Company.
nuclear waste, may in fact generate These “larger-scale” demonstrations
more radioactive waste than large- are relative, however, with one pro-
scale nuclear plants. Given the low problem of nuclear waste is truly emissions-free fusion energy could the energy output of the initial totype generating nearly enough
carbon nature of nuclear power, solved, nuclear power is far from a help to eliminate the drawbacks of breakthrough in December 2022, power to light just a single pixel.
some countries and advocates see it sustainable solution. fission-based nuclear power and demonstrating continued advance- There are major challenges of scale,
as a critical piece of the climate mit- solve critical questions about global ments in the field. On the heels of cost, and long-term reliability as the
igation and energy production puz- energy needs. While practical fusion this work, the Biden administra- technology is far more efficient in
zle; at COP28 in December 2023, Fusion energy breakthroughs energy is still likely decades away, tion recently announced plans to more humid environments. Nev-
more than 20 countries, including continue National Ignition Facility scien- build the world’s first commercial ertheless, future developments and
the U.S., signed a declaration calling Ongoing innovations in fusion tists in July again successfully gen- fusion energy plant within a decade. the deployment of this technology
for the tripling of global nuclear power could lead to the power of erated energy in a fusion reaction. While ambitious, advancements at scale could signal major energy
energy capacity by 2050. Others, the sun at our fingertips. Recent This experiment nearly doubled within this timeline could be key to implications for the future.
though, believe that until the breakthroughs in waste- and addressing the climate crisis.

Mitigating Climate Change Through Geoengineering

Geoengineering is one of today’s most contested fields of Louisiana. In California, researchers
climate science. The 2023 Trend Report touched on some of are studying how to create a DAC
these concerns, but the public debate surrounding it has only hub that would not only remove
and store carbon but also provide
accelerated. While experiments in the field have been limited,
clean energy and manage water. The
there are concerns that continued focus on geoengineering
expansion of carbon centers such
solutions will undermine the urgency of reducing greenhouse
as this one should be considered
gas emissions and limiting climate change from the source. in community planning, given the
Nevertheless, the diversity of geoengineering innovations, potential impacts on infrastructure
and civil service systems.
ranging from direct removal of car- avoid climate disaster; existing car-
bon from the atmosphere to reduc- bon must actively be removed from The cloud seeding
ing temperatures by managing solar the atmosphere. As a result, public renaissance
radiation, continues to grow. and private funding alike is turn- Cloud seeding is a well-established
ing towards DAC projects. Venture (though still controversial) form of
capitalist funding for carbon cap- geoengineering that induces pre-
Direct air capture ture and storage initiatives reached cipitation by “seeding” clouds with
Though technically a form of geo- nearly $4 billion in 2022, and had chemicals or other materials. While
engineering, direct air capture already totaled $1.8 billion by the the practice has been used through-
(DAC) is significantly less risky than end of the first quarter of 2023. In out the world
world for decades, it is
other methods of this approach. August of 2023, the U.S. Depart- expanding into new markets as cri-
Interest in this technology has been ment of Energy announced that it ses around the availability of water,
Interest is growing in direct air capture technology to remove carbon from rapidly growing, especially as pro- will invest $1.2 billion in develop- persistent drought, and desertifica-
the atmosphere, with the first commercial U.S. DAC plant starting operations
in Tracy, California. Photo by Jim Wilson/The New York Times. jections indicate that net-zero emis- ing regional DAC hubs across the tion take hold. Arid and agricultural
sions are no longer sufficient to country, beginning with Texas and states in the U.S. are emerging as

hotspots for cloud seeding; Nevada

Nevada, over the lack of multigenerational effects of SRM are much less estab- effects would not be limited to one
Utah, Texas
Utah Texas, Idaho
Idaho, California
California, and research into the modified trees and lished. Nevertheless, both the Biden country’s borders, so there is grow-
New Mexico have all expanded their their interactions with other organ- administration and the EU have sig- ing debate over how it should be
use of the technology for recharg- isms over time. Likewise, organiza- naled that they are open to the pros- governed, and by who. The interna-
ing aquifers and reservoirs, supple- tions that certify sustainable forests pect of studying SRM, and over the tional organization Degrees is cur-
menting mountain snowpack, and do not approve those with bioen- past three years NOAA has invested rently working to confront these
watering crops like wheat and cot- gineered trees. Though China has $22 million into SRM research. challenges by engaging with coun-
ton. Similarly, Mexico has made been planting bioengineered trees Private companies, too, have been tries that would be most vulnerable
investments in the technology and since the early 2000s, it is the only conducting their own investigations to SRM. In January, over 440 sci-
commissioned cloud seeding firms country to do so on a large scale, into the subject, and in some cases, entists signed an open letter which
to relieve persistent drought condi- and the U.S. Forest Service has not experiments. In September 2022, calls for prohibiting public fund-
tions in key areas. While measuring taken a stance on the issue. Its deci- UK researchers released sulfur ing, experimentation, or deploy-
the actual impacts of cloud seeding Biotechnology company Living sion could have widespread implica- dioxide into the stratosphere via ment of SRM technologies. The
Carbon intends to plant more than
is notoriously difficult, Mexican offi- four million trees bioengineered tions for federally protected lands. a weather balloon, and within the following month, an opposing let-
cials contend that it created 40 per- to help manage climate change, next year a California-based com- ter was signed by over 110 scien-
though critics have begun to voice
cent more rain than normal in sev- concerns over the lack of research pany wants to release iron-rich par- tists encouraging further research
eral key locations. With continued into potential long-term impacts. Solar radiation management ticles through the exhausts of ships into the potential of SRM. Govern-
Photo by Audra Melton/The New
innovations in the field, cloud seed- York Times. Solar radiation management (SRM) in an attempt to destroy methane. mental tension regarding geoen-
ing firms and advocates hope to bol- encapsulates a number of technol- gineering has already been seen in
ster its use to help improve drought ogies that reduce the amount of Mexico, which has banned solar
conditions, recharge critical water planted genetically modified poplar sunlight that reaches the ground. Global debate over geoengineering experiments after
sources, and even reduce the poten- seedlings on public land in Georgia Methods proposed to achieve this geoengineering an American company released sul-
tial for wildfire. in February 2023. These modified include marine cloud brightening SRM is one of the most controver- fur dioxide particles into its airspace
seedlings can grow 53 percent larger through aerosols, cirrus cloud thin- sial forms of geoengineering, given without permission. Such conflicts
over five months and uptake 27 per- ning to permit more heat escape that its impacts are unknown and indicate the need for planners and
Bioengineered trees cent more carbon dioxide compared from Earth, and sun shields in space it carries the risk of termination practitioners from many countries
Trees bioengineered to grow more to standard seedlings. Living Car- and stratospheric aerosol scattering shock, whereby if its implementa-
shock to come together in preparing for
quickly and store more carbon are bon intends to plant upward of four in the upper atmosphere that would tion was suddenly stopped, warm- multiple futures that may include
moving from concept to reality. Bio- million more by mid-2024, though reflect light away from Earth. ing could accelerate to exceed cur- a wide range of potential geoengi-
technology company Living Carbon critics have begun to voice concerns Compared to DAC, the indirect rent projections. Additionally, its neering outcomes.

The Futures of Global Climate Action

How the scenes might play when consumerism and science go head to head.
Scenarios 2054
The world is deglobalized. Almost all products in the U.S. market are either produced in the U.S. or sourced from friendly markets.
THE END OF THE WORLD GREED RULES
Climate mitigation efforts, including geoengineering, are successful.

IS A LONELY PLACE
Rampant consumerism
Local production without care for others
where possible.
Conventional climate mitigation efforts are insufficient.
and the environment.

Climate change limits Everything is
the areas where crops
Global temperatures have been decreasing.

produced locally,
can be grown. no matter how
Climate change continues to worsen.
unsustainable
It’s an isolated and
production is.
unequal world.
Geoengineering will fix
Wars are being fought
the climate crisis.
for resources.
Mad Max: Fury Road; Cinematic/Alamy Wall Street; Allstar Picture Library Ltd/Alamy
WE ARE IN THIS NO REGRETS
TOGETHER
Rampant consumerism
Global collaboration without care for the
on climate action. environment.
Production happens Buy everything from
where climate change anywhere no matter
allows for it. what.
Global collaboration Geoengineering will fix
to find solutions to the climate crisis.
climate migration.
Wall-E; Cinematic/Alamy The Devil Wears Prada; Maximum Film/Alamy
The world is more globalized than ever before.

Curiosities and Game-Changing Innovations

While it is impossible to predict the impacts of nascent
social and technological change, it is still helpful to
investigate recent and potentially game-changing
innovations. Awareness of recent developments that are
only in their infancy, but that have the potential to signal
massive changes in how we live, work, and play, can
help planners build a more holistic understanding of the
present’s deeply uncertain impacts on the future.
From adaptable and deployable 2023, scientists at Harvard Medical

factories to the promise and pit- School manipulated the epigenome,
epigenome
falls of gene editing or the major which provides instructions to cells
potential implications of radical life on which genes to turn on or keep
extension technology, these signals silent at any given time, to age mice
and current-day curiosities could be on an accelerated timeline and then
game-changers for the future. reverse the effects of that aging.
Individual experimentation into
the science of life extension and age
Life extension and reversal received extensive media
reversing aging coverage in 2023. Tech exec Bryan
Life extension technology, as well Johnson is attempting to turn back
as experimentation into effectively the clock through a personal pro-
Factory in a Box technologies can bring products to market rapidly and deliver them locally, potentially transforming reversing the process of aging, is gram of exercise, diet, supplements,
(and disrupting) the manufacturing and supply chain landscape. Photo from HVMCatapult video.
a major area of research today. In and lifestyle changes he calls Project

Blueprint Continued progress

Blueprint. (see Deep Dive: The Future of Food will most likely be game-changing, extinct mammoths), and gene edit- research and prototyping of fully
within this nascent but popular area Production and Agriculture);
Agriculture cur- which is why it might be worth ing (adding or removing traits from functional and autonomous mobile
of study could signal significant and ing and treating cancers and a huge watching. existing species’ DNA to recreate factories, dubbed Factory in a Box.
factories
highly uncertain social impacts in variety of rare and life-threatening extinct species). Media interest A FIAB is a mobile and compact
the future. At a rudimentary level, illnesses; and quickly detecting and largely centers on the resurrection technology that uses additive manu-
if people are living far longer than addressing emerging and highly Bringing back extinct species of mammoths
mammoths, dodos
dodos, and other facturing to bring products to mar-
they currently do, then they may be contagious viruses before they are This signal, discussed as part of a high-profile extinctions. However, ket rapidly and deliver them locally.
working longer, consuming more able to spread. Most recently, Deep Dive into rewilding in the this concept’s application in more Analysts point to the FIAB’s poten-
resources, and requiring more ser- CRISPR-derived treatments have 2023 Trend Report,
Report has already seen mundane but vitally important cir- tial in a variety of situations, includ-
vices over a much longer period of been approved by the FDA for treat- some significant recent updates. cumstances may also be significant. ing on-site production of equipment
time. The implications are vast for ing sickle cell disease,
disease a life-threat- The concept of resurrection biol- For example, insect extinctions are a (even additional FIABs) and sup-
nearly every aspect of society. ening blood disorder. ogy is centered on the revival or major threat to the resilience of the plies to address acute supply chain
Broadly, there is general accep- recreation of extinct species of global food supply and the health challenges. A recent project focused
tance and interest among scientists plants and animals. The current-day of ecosystems. If critical extinctions on the utility of a FIAB in a post-di-
CRISPR and gene-editing in using CRISPR for these purposes. destruction of the natural world, do occur, this technology might saster scenario to rapidly manu-
technology However, there is also a broad the impacts of climate change, and one day be vital to reversing major facture and distribute goods. The
CRISPR (clustered regularly inter- scientific consensus on the poten- the steady march of ecosystem loss impacts by reviving key species. potential impacts, however, might
spaced short palindromic repeats) is tial ethical risks and implications is leading to the rapid extinction of Planners should consider not just extend to more significant disrup-
an innovative and groundbreaking should this technology be used for plant and animal species across the the long-term implications of this tions to traditional manufactur-
method for editing the genome of eugenics or the “enhancement” of world. Notably, resurrection biology technology, but also the present-day ing processes, supply chains, and
living things. Medical advancements the human genome. Given the rapid might be critical not just to bring circumstances (ecosystem loss and eventually retail. Still, these initial
based on CRISPR-related discov- advancements and innovations back long-lost species, but to reverse the rapid extinction of plant and forays into what may one day be
eries are already in use across the related to CRISPR that are already the ongoing extinction of current animal species) that drive its contin- the precursor to Star Trek’s replica-
globe. Many scientists and research- emerging, interest is growing in species. ued relevancy. tor are only in the early prototyping
ers believe that the revolutionary global governance and regulations Current de-extinction science stages and will rely upon the sig-
potential of this technology is sig- around accepted ethical standards relies on three different methods: nificant growth and advancement
nificant. Some of the most prom- and uses. While this signal might cloning (using DNA of extinct Factory in a Box (FIAB) of 3D-printing technologies and
ising potential and ongoing uses not be directly connected to plan- species to clone new animals), Recent evolutions of additive man- materials.
are related to growing pest-resis- ning, its potential impact on society back-breeding (for example, selec- ufacturing processes, such as 3D
tant and highly resilient food crops tively breeding elephants to recreate and 4D printing, are giving rise to

The Futures of Food Production

According to the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies,
about 50 years ago, the main challenge in the food industry was
the question of how food production could keep up with the pace
of population growth. Efficiency and the calories that could be
produced were the priority. But today, the main challenges are
how we can produce healthy food sustainably and how it can be
Deep Dive
equitably distributed. Of the four billion metric tons of food
produced for human consumption is moving in three main direc-

every year, one-third gets thrown tions to resolve these issues. First
out. Meanwhile, climate change as
out is the deployment of technolo-
well as social and economic dis- gies, such as AI, robotics, and
ruptors are increasingly threaten- new forms of DNA editing, to
ing food production (see Moving make crops more resilient to
toward a Polycrisis).
Polycrisis According climate change-related extreme
to the World Economic Forum,
Forum weather events and pests. Sec-
global food consumption will ond is moving food production
increase by 1.4 percent annually in closer to consumers through
the next 10 years, while produc- urban agriculture. Third is the
tion is anticipated to increase by food industry’s (and others’)
only 1.1 percent per year. It is esti- experimentation with producing
mated that by 2050, global food synthetic foods in laboratories
production will have to increase and growing crops in outer space
by 70 percent.
percent to provide alternatives to an New technologies, such as CRISPR, can help increase plant resilience and adaptation
to climate change, allowing crops to grow in more places and reduce the need for
The future of food production unsustainable and inhumane pesticides, fertilizer, and water. Photo by Shaiith/Shutterstock.

livestock industry and find substi- undesired genetic characteristics,

tutes for conventional agriculture. similar to natural breeding—just
faster than the natural process.
process
MAKING AGRICULTURE MORE In addition to increasing resil-
RESILIENT. Conventional agri- ience to climate change, CRISPR
culture has seen automation and can be used to help crops grow
robotics tech innovations over in more places; reduce the need
many decades. AI has also reached for pesticides, fertilizer, and water;
the ag sector and is being used for and increase the shelf life of fruits
weeding, to determine the health and vegetables. Scientists are also
of crops, and to detect pests and experimenting with CRISPR as
Deep Dive
other issues. However, these tech a means to change the genes of
innovations alone won’t be enough insects and pests that harm and
to counter the future impacts of destroy crops. While most of these
climate change. experiments still happen in labo-
Plants have evolved and ratories, the U.S. government has
adapted to changing climates for already approved the release of
millions of years through the pro- CRISPR mosquitoes in Florida and
cess of natural selection. What is California. Other CRISPR insects will
different today, however, is the pace be piloted in greenhouses next.
at which the climate is changing.
Scientists are now looking at how BRINGING FOOD PRODUCTION
crops and their biomes changed in The global market for vertical farming, a version of urban farming where plants are CLOSER TO THE CONSUMERS.
stacked vertically and mostly indoors, is anticipated to grow by 26 percent annually
the past, hoping to understand how and will reach $42.5 billion by 2032. Photo courtesy of Plenty. Nearly 80 percent of all food
we can mimic the process of genetic produced globally is being con-
changes and speed up their evolu- sumed in urban areas, so it makes
tion so that they can adapt to the DNA without introducing any for- than the rather controversial GMOs. sense to bring food production
ever faster-changing climate. This eign genes into the edited organism Instead of adding foreign genes into closer to cities.
cities While the con-
can be done through CRISPR, a new (see Curiosities and Game-Changing an organism or manipulating them, cept of urban farming is not new,
technology that selectively modifies Innovations). CRISPR is different
Innovations CRISPR can eliminate or correct evolving approaches are gaining

increased attention and technolog- conventional agriculture to feed the reported on lab-made, synthetic
ical innovations can help improve world’s cities while having a smaller meats and 3D-printed fish. Several
efficiency and sustainability. The land, water, and (especially) energy brands of synthetic beef, chicken,
global market for vertical farming footprint. This is not an easy task, and fish have now received approval
(a version of urban farming where considering the limited space and in the U.S. and other countries. One
plants are stacked vertically and high energy consumption of these company has even successfully
mostly indoors) is anticipated to farms. Additionally, indoor vertical created a meatball from an extinct
grow by 26 percent annually and farms mainly grow high-value, quick- mammoth.
will reach $42.5 billion by 2032. A to-harvest crops that don’t require One driver of this trend is to
pioneer in this field is Singapore, pollination, such as herbs and leafy find alternatives to unsustainable
where the world’s first commercial greens. Innovation in robotics and practices of the cattle industry,
Deep Dive
vertical farm opened in 2012, with AI are trying to resolve this issue, which accounts for anywhere from
its 30 by 30 initiative that aims to along with other challenges of pests, 11 to 17 percent of all global green-
sustainably produce 30 percent of water, and light controls. Boosting house gas emissions. However,
its population’s nutritional needs crops with electricity is another uncertainties remain about the
by 2030. development that can be applied to sustainability of synthetic meats,
The need to produce food indoor farms, conventional agricul- Lab-grown meat may soon be joined should they become mainstream.
by lab-produced dairy, like Eden Brew’s
locally has been acknowledged ture, and even zero-gravity environ- animal-free, precision-fermented milk Current synthetic meat manufactur-
by the U.S. government as well. ments in outer space. under development in Australia. Photo ing is water- and energy-intensive,
courtesy Paper Moose/Eden Brew.
Since 2020, the USDA, through its Empty office buildings resulting and mass production could poten-
Urban Agriculture and Innovation from recent hybrid work trends tially create more emissions than
Production grants program, has provide new opportunities for AGRICULTURE AND FARMING the conventional cattle industry. As
granted $47 million in funding for potential urban farming spaces in WITHOUT THE FARM. While mov- with urban farming, the vertical and
urban farming projects. The num- dense urban environments. As we ing agriculture from the countryside lab versions of agriculture still need
ber of applications for these grants reimagine the future of downtowns to the city and from horizontal to to improve their energy and water
doubled between 2022 and 2023, in the post-pandemic new normal, vertical might already sound like footprints as well.
reaching 300 applications. this can include more complete a radical shift, some scientists and In these early days of synthetic
Many technological innovations neighborhoods with mixed uses and industries are exploring how farm- meat production, it is not yet clear
aim at making large-scale vertical a variety of amenities—including ing can be done without a farm at which way the market will go. Some
farming a sustainable alternative to fresh food production. all. Previous Trend Reports have say that we have already reached

peak vegan as sales for plant-based transportation impacts. Growing

meats like Beyond Meat slump. demand in urban spaces for verti-
Meanwhile, the Italian parliament cal farms will require planners to
voted to ban lab-made meat provide these spaces combined
(including production, sale, and with the right mechanisms for
import) to protect its meat industry, sustainable practices. A decline in
food heritage, and the health of its farmland might open up opportuni-
citizens. ties for land preservation, rewilding,
In addition to farming without a or other needed actions. One thing
farm, precision fermentation might to keep in mind is that with climate
soon provide us with milk without change, massive areas of land that
Deep Dive
the cow, which has the potential to are currently permafrost are thaw-
significantly impact the future of ing and will become available for
the dairy industry. Other innova- different uses in the future. Accord-
tions on the horizon include regen- ing to current estimates, this will
erative ocean farming and farming include about two million square
in arctic zones or in the desert. miles of permafrost in Siberia—an
Siberia
Furthermore, as already mentioned area equal to half of all U.S. farm-
in previous Trend Reports, scien- land—by 2080. The spread of
tists are exploring the possibility of agriculture to currently uninhabited
growing plants in outer space.
space In Climate change is thawing massive areas of permafrost that will become available polar regions such as Antarctica,
for different uses in the future, including about two million square miles in Siberia—
2023, NASA grew its first tomatoes an area equal to half of all U.S. farmland. Photo by Emile Ducke/The New York Times. however, is raising concerns about
at the international space station, repercussions to climate and the
and researchers are looking into environment as well as infringement
growing crops on Mars.
Mars Last, but years, potentially producing farming into cities, make con- upon Indigenous rights. Whatever
not least, one company is already their food from their own breath. ventional agriculture more resil- happens, planners should be watch-
generating protein out of air.
air (Bon appétit!) ient, or shift our food production ing these developments and under-
This might be essential for longer- Some of the concepts here completely into labs and outer stand when it’s time to prepare for
term space exploration in which may seem very utopian (or maybe space, all of these developments them and act.
space crews are travelling for many dystopian), but whether we move will have land use and potential

The New Space

Recent years have seen a revival in space activities, as
highlighted in the 2022 and 2023 Trend Reports. The “new
space” industry, fueled by advanced technologies and
increased private investment, is reshaping our perception of
space. The scene now involves collaborative efforts between
NASA and private entities, with major companies such as
SpaceX and Amazon playing key roles. This ecosystem,
influenced by innovative business and funding strategies
from commercial sectors, promotes and contracts with the private sec-
space accessibility and innovation. tor, shifting much decision-mak-
tor
Plans for Moon and Mars missions ing to entrepreneurs. This billion-
are underway, and space mining and aire-backed progress is a significant
manufacturing are expanding. How- change, and experts hope it contin-
ever, as space exploration’s potential ues, as the industry needs audacious
grows, so do its challenges and sus- innovators and financial resources.
tainability issues on Earth. The space industry has histor-
ically focused on low Earth orbit
(LEO), home to communication sat-
New opportunities in ellites, the International Space Sta-
the space industry tion, and the Hubble Telescope. Ini-
While some believe NASA’s role has tial space tourism and space-based
Recent years have seen a revival in space activities, with plans for Moon and Mars missions underway and space diminished, it remains significantly manufacturing will likely be in LEO,
mining and manufacturing activity expanding. Illustration by NASA.
influential. But NASA now funds but interest is growing in expanding

activity to the Moon and beyond. stable roads and landing areas as a
This emerging space industry is solution to these challenges.
still vulnerable to global economic
and security challenges. The com-
petitive nature of space exploration Space-driven innovations
raises safety concerns for the U.S., NASA is investing in a variety of
and its space companies are often innovations under the NASA Inno-
foreign intelligence targets.
targets For vative Advanced Concepts program.
planners, the space industry One such initiative is exploring the
demands specialized planning potential of using fungi to “grow”
expertise and brings new job oppor- habitats on the Moon, Mars, and
tunities while emerging as an influ- other celestial bodies. Some of these
ential stakeholder in land use and ideas, like a lunar oxygen pipeline or
strategic planning decisions around a space-built telescope mirror, could
some U.S. communities. revolutionize space exploration.
In September 2023, the OSIRIS-
REx mission delivered an asteroid
A new Moon race sample to Earth that could shed
Entities from the U.S., Russia, India, light on the primordial conditions
Israel, and Japan have tried machine In September 2023, the OSIRIS-REx mission delivered an asteroid sample in a capsule to Earth that could shed light on and materials that existed during
the primordial conditions and materials that existed during the early days of our solar system. Photo courtesy of NASA.
landings on the Moon’s southern the early days of our solar system.
region over the years, with varying The October 2023 launch of the
success. Artemis III,
III NASA’s 2025 by Yusaku Maezawa and a team Moon’s resources that might benefit the way for off-Earth settlements,
settlements Psyche mission is raising interest in
Moon project, plans to become of artists planned for 2023 was Earth (helium-3, rare earth met- which will require new outer-space space mining—the
mining asteroid Psyche
humanity’s lunar return after over postponed. als, and water). Upcoming Moon planning paradigms. is rich in iron, nickel, gold, and
half a century, with a diverse crew Governments and private enti- expeditions will use more robots Moreover, the Moon could soon platinum—though the feasibility of
including the first woman and per- ties alike are eyeing the Moon not and cutting-edge tech, aiming for be bustling—with no atmosphere this new industry remains under
son of color. SpaceX, led by Elon just for scientific exploration but eventual colonization and serving as but plenty of equipment-eroding scrutiny due to the high costs asso-
Musk, has unveiled the dearMoon also for potential industrial and a launchpad for deeper space explo- dust. Scientists suggest using large ciated with space missions, potential
Project crew, though a lunar flyby commercial ventures, given the ration. Planners may start to pave lenses to melt this dust, creating commodity price crashes, and the

unresolved matter of resource own- debris For planners who rely on

debris.
ership in space. Nonetheless, access- up-to-date satellite imagery for var-
ing abundant space resources could ious projects, this issue is of con-
revolutionize Earth’s construction cern. Mega-constellations like Star-
methods and potentially intensify link pose both an opportunity and
urban development. a challenge. With thousands more
The development of space inno- satellites planned for launch by dif-
vations also fosters collaboration on ferent players, the probability of
Earth. The creation of Pittsburgh’s collisions increases, endangering
Keystone Space and Defense Inno- existing missions and satellites. A
vation District highlights the trans- NASA report highlights the imme-
formative potential of the U.S. space diate need for effective remediation
industry. Such specialized districts methods, which include removing
can significantly bolster regional small debris, altering the trajec-
economies by acting as magnets for tories of larger objects to mitigate
talent, innovation, and investment. potential collisions, and implement-
ing controlled reentry for reusable
Of the objects currently being tracked in Earth orbit, shown here as computer-generated dots, only five percent are
systems.
More space travel functional satellites; the remaining 95 percent is orbital debris. Image courtesy NASA ODPO. Furthermore, the Moon already
No longer exclusive to astronauts holds a significant amount of space
or the ultra-rich, space travel seems junk from our space expeditions.
to be becoming more accessi- On Earth, cities globally space-themed tourism, they are into community landscapes and With every mission, more human-
ble to the common individual. In are capitalizing on space hype. not universally embraced. Case future plans. made materials find their way
2023, a mother-daughter duo won Launch sites such as Wenchang, in point: residents of Boca Chica, to its surface. As we expand our
free tickets on a Virgin Galactic China, are becoming dual-pur-
China Texas, mentioned in the 2023 Trend endeavors into space, it is impera-
tourist flight. However, the space pose infrastructures: epicenters Report, lament how SpaceX has
Report Debris crisis tive to take a responsible approach
travel industry’s growth has lagged of scientific advancement and disrupted their tranquil coastal exis- The integration of space technol- to exploration. Planners can help
behind expectations, with insur- tourist attractions. But while these tence. Such instances pose questions ogy into our daily lives and opera- extend the principles of stewardship
ance complications being a primary endeavors bolster the economy for urban planners and regulators tions has been accompanied by the and sustainability beyond the Earth
roadblock. and foster national pride through about the integration of launch sites ever-increasing challenge of space into human activities in space.

ChatGPT Talks About the Futures of AI
‘Expert’ Insight
AI’s next 30 years, its Welcome, ChatGPT. Today, AI-powered diagnostics and per-
impact on industries, and we’re going to delve into the sonalized treatment recommen-
the path to responsible future of AI. To start off, how do dations. Transportation might see
development. you see AI evolving in the next optimized traffic management and
20 to 30 years? the rise of autonomous vehicles. In
By ChatGPT 3.5 and ChatGPT 4 Thank you for having me. Over manufacturing, AI-driven automa-
In considering the long-term the next few decades, AI is likely tion could revolutionize produc-
prospects of AI, we decided to to experience significant advance- tion processes. And of course, AI’s
go right to the source. The large ments in various areas. We can influence on finance, entertainment,
language model (LLM), the tech- expect improvements in natural education, and even creative fields
nology behind ChatGPT, appeared language understanding and gen- like art and music composition is
to be the ideal interviewee and eration, enabling more coherent expected to expand.
Illustration by Christian Blaze. interviewer to lead a discussion on and contextually relevant interac-
Image concept generated by asking
DALL-E to envision ChatGPT. this topic. To dive deeper into the tions. AI’s ability to process and There’s been a lot of talk about the
implications of AI technology on the analyze vast amounts of data will ethical implications of AI. How
planning profession over the next continue to grow, leading to better should we, as a society, approach
decades, we simulated a unique dis- insights for decision-making across the challenges of AI ethics?
cussion in which ChatGPT created industries. Addressing AI ethics requires
and immediately answered its own a multipronged approach. First,
questions.* The generated interview That’s fascinating. With these transparency in AI decision-making
below explores opportunities AI advancements, what sectors or processes is essential to under-
presents for planners, the ethical industries do you think will be stand and trust AI outputs. Second,
challenges surrounding its deploy- most impacted by AI’s evolution? researchers and developers need to
ment, and the potential role of AI Many industries stand to be actively reduce biases in datasets
*The Q&A text represents a mix of in addressing challenges planners transformed by AI. Sectors such and algorithms. Third, there should
ChatGPT 3.5 and ChatGPT 4 versions
of interview simulation. must tackle, such as climate change. as health care could benefit from be broad public engagement on

defining AI’s values and norms,

ensuring diverse perspectives are INSIGHT FROM OUR ‘EXPERT’
considered. Lastly, regulatory and “AI is poised to play a pivotal role in urban planning.
‘Expert’ Insight
policy frameworks might be needed Smart cities, powered by AI and IoT technologies,
to guide AI’s development and could revolutionize how we design, manage, and
deployment in sensitive areas. interact with urban environments. ...However, ensuring
that these advancements are equitable, sustainable,
Let’s switch gears a bit. How can and considerate of citizen input will be paramount.”
AI contribute positively to global
challenges, such as climate change
or health care?
AI has the potential to be a technologies, could revolutionize Thank you for that insight. One
game-changer in addressing global how we design, manage, and inter- last question: What challenges do
challenges. For climate change, act with urban environments. AI you foresee in realizing the full
AI can optimize renewable energy can optimize traffic flow, enhance potential of AI over the next few
sources, model and predict envi- resource management, and enable decades?
ronmental impacts, and assist in predictive analytics for infrastruc- Several challenges lie ahead.
conservation efforts. The key is to ture planning. It can also facilitate Technical challenges include devel-
deploy AI in ways that augment community engagement, help- oping AI systems that can truly
human capabilities and address ing residents participate in deci- understand and generate human-
specific problems while being mind- sion-making processes. However, like language, as well as addressing
ful of unintended consequences. ensuring that these advancements the limitations of current machine
are equitable, sustainable, and learning algorithms. Ethical chal-
Excellent points. Now, in the considerate of citizen input will be lenges encompass issues of bias,
context of urban planning, how do paramount. accountability, and the potential
you envision AI’s role in shaping misuse of AI technology. Balancing
the future of cities? the benefits of AI with concerns
AI is poised to play a pivotal about job displacement and social
role in urban planning. Smart disruption will also require careful
cities, powered by AI and IoT consideration.

FRAMEWORK ACT NOW PREPARE LEARN AND WATCH
The
future of
planning Upskilling:
Evolving Planning
Competencies
and Skills
PlanTech:
Updating the
Planner’s Toolkit
Conclusion

Upskilling:
Evolving Planning Competencies and Skills
This is the third year we have published a Trend Through this foresight work, APA has identified the need online course, Using the Future to Create Dynamic Plans,
Plans
Report, listing more than 100 trends and signals to provide skills trainings to upskill planners on current and that provides training on how to use this Trend Report and
that are relevant to planning. And as we have future skills gaps related to emerging trends. Skills gaps we ■ scan for trends and make sense of them;
have identified in previous Trend Reports include planning for se scenario planning as a method to understand what plau-
u
emphasized throughout this report, though these ■
change and the need for agility, people-centric planning and sible futures of a community might look like (in collaboration
are the latest developments and emerging topics
related human skills, planning with foresight and the need to with the Lincoln Institute);
Institute
for this year, most of the trends from previous
institutionalize imagination, and working across sectors in
■ integrate these plausible futures in our plans; and
Trend Reports are still relevant as well. interdisciplinary collaborations, among others.
■ c reate dynamic plans that allow us to pivot and change direc-
While this report shares knowledge about Together with our Trend Scouting Foresight Community,
tions while the future is approaching.
emerging topics and provides links to guiding our PlanTech Advisory Community, and other APA member
resources on how to make sense of them, we inputs, we have collected recommendations on how the plan- Additionally, PAS QuickNotes 94, “Planning
Planning with Fore-
ning profession needs to evolve so that planners can be suc- sight,” summarizes what planning with foresight looks like.
sight
also need to raise awareness about the “know-
cessful in the future. A PAS Report with more detailed guidance will be released
how”: the skills and competencies planners need
this year.
to be able to tackle some of these emerging Planning with foresight
opportunities and challenges. It is no surprise that one fundamental basis Collaborating with technology
for tackling the current pace of change is to It can be challenging to keep up with the latest
know how to make sense of the many trends technological advancements, especially in the
and signals in this report and how to integrate AI era we are now living in. And while some
our knowledge about them in the plans we fear that AI may take their jobs, it seems more
make for the futures of our communities. This is about using realistic that AI will take on certain tasks and
foresight as a method in planning to plan with the future (and we will have to learn how to collaborate with it. Therefore, it will
not just for the future). For that, APA has created an interactive be imperative for planners to learn about these technologies and
understand how applying them, and potentially collaborating

with them, can make planning more efficient and potentially from the past that have resulted in inequities and marginaliza- “wicked problems” and unprecedented situations, unexpected
more people-centric. Planners can use technology to take care of tion of many communities and implement new approaches to disruptions, and uncertain change.
many time-intensive, repetitive tasks, which will free up time for create equitable communities. To find the right path towards A culture of innovation in planning that makes people the
them to focus more on the people in our communities. building trust and reengaging with these communities, the center of our work, uses foresight to prepare for uncertainty, and
To assist planners in staying up to date with the latest practice of empathy and compassion is imperative. Planners can applies technology for everyone’s benefit will have the power to
AI-driven technologies, APA offers Unleashing the Potential of engage with these vital methods through the online training sustainably resolve our current polycrisis and bring back “plan-
ChatGPT in Planning Practice,
Practice an online training that unpacks Empathy, Equity, and You: Stories, Skills, and Practices.
Practices ning for progress” and the public good.
the implications of ChatGPT for planners, offers pragmatic Additional human skills upskilling trainings will be pro-
guidance, and showcases real-world applications. vided this year.
Another training centered on AI for image generation,
Unlocking the Secrets of Image Creation with Generative AI, AI From innovation by crisis to innovation
gives participants valuable insights and hands-on experience in by culture
how these technologies have the potential to advance planning Coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic while still tackling the
practices. myriad other crises of today (climate crisis, health crisis, infra-
Additional PlanTech trainings on topics such as city digital structure crisis, etc.), one may argue that we have moved from
twins will follow this year. “planning for progress” to “planning for crisis.” However, our
crisis mode during the pandemic has resulted in many innova-
Making people the center of our work tive solutions no one would have thought of otherwise.
Many skills gaps related to human skills have And when looking at the long list of emerging trends and
been identified as well. The challenges the growing list of upskilling needs, it will be important to lever-
discussed in Political Polarization and Societal age this spirit of innovation not just for crisis prevention, but as
Division result in increased conflict during part of our work culture as planners.
community meetings and public engagement How was it possible to implement innovative ideas during
processes. Equipping planners with conflict resolution skills has the pandemic? What needs to change to continue innovating?
become crucial, and APA is offering a training series, beginning To build a culture of innovation means to integrate innovation
with Mastering Conflict for Effective Planning: Navigation and into day-to-day planning practice. This includes creating path-
Resolution, to help them learn the skills they need.
Resolution ways and opportunities to imagine, co-create with the com-
Meanwhile, planners are trying to correct planning mistakes munity, experiment, prototype, allow to fail, and iterate. APA’s
Design Thinking Research KnowledgeBase Collection offers
planners guidance in applying this creative, agile approach to

PlanTech: Updating the Planner’s Toolkit

The pace of technology innovation is AI tools for productivity Overture Maps Foundation aims to provide interoperable open
unstoppable, as the emerging trends and AI-based technologies are increasingly becoming essential com- map data that meets enterprise standards for those who need to
signals in this Trend Report show. This is also ponents in planners’ toolkits. Tools like ChatGPT
ChatGPT, Bard
Bard, and develop map services. Planners’ active contributions to the
Grammarly have already enhanced efficiency, freeing up time creation and maintenance of open-source datasets like OSM and
the case with PlanTech: technologies planners
for hands-on community work. This trend towards automation AI-driven tools mark a new era of broader access to geospatial
can use in their work to facilitate processes or
of day-to-day work is just getting started. We are entering an era data. It is not only transforming professional planning but also
make certain tasks more efficient.
in which AI companions, such as those in Zoom that provide empowering citizens, researchers, and activists, enabling them
meeting summaries and transcripts, are becoming ubiquitous. to contribute to and benefit from geospatial analyses.
These AI companions are expected to evolve into comprehen-
sive tools that assist with creating documents, composing emails, No-code platforms
filling out forms, responding to RFPs,
RFPs and preparing grant appli- No-code and low-code platforms are innova-
cations. ChatGPT Plus can analyze large datasets quickly, read tive digital solutions that allow urban planners
PDFs, and even generate images from text descriptions using the to carry out tasks without extensive coding
DALL-E 3 integration.
integration Community members will likely soon knowledge or software development skills, or
expect planners to be skilled in using these advanced tools to with only minimal scripting. These platforms
maintain effective engagement. offer cost-effective options for producing a range of outputs,
from reports to interactive applications, through easy-to-use
Evolution of open data interfaces. They simplify complex coding tasks, enabling users
Planners, who use a variety of spatial data to leverage the full potential of the software without understand-
sources, stand to gain from the advancements ing a wide array of programming languages. This simplification
in open data platforms and open-source is achieved through intuitive design, making essential tools such
technologies. Meta’s Daylight Map Distribu- as word processors, emails, and mapping platforms accessible
tion of OpenStreetMap (OSM), along with not only to computer scientists but also to planners.
contributions from the Overture Maps Foundation in the form There are plenty of platforms available that already sup-
of points of interest, network, and building data, consolidates port various aspects of urban planning practice, including
multiple data sources for use in planning applications. The MailChimp for email campaigns, Excel and SmartSheets for

data analysis, Unreal Engine and SketchUp for 3D visualization, technologies are becoming more user friendly, enabling commu- an interactive remote platform. The emergence of AI-powered
Asana for project management, and Zapier for workflow auto- nities to participate in the digitization of their environments. tools is also reshaping how planners and authorities commu-
mation, among many others. Applications such as Polycam and RealityScan empower indi- nicate with community members. For instance, New York City
In addition to these general-purpose tools, myriad special- viduals to create 3D models using just a smartphone or tablet has introduced the MyCity Business Services chatbot in a beta
ized tools on the market serve specific functions relevant to camera. RealityCapture allows the creation of highly realistic version to assist residents with inquiries about starting or man-
planning practice. These include ICLEI Clearpath,
Clearpath the Ener- models from photographs and laser scans. DroneDeploy aging their businesses. Another chatbot prototype,
prototype developed
gyStar Benchmarking platform, and RiskFactor Pro for munic- leverages aerial imagery for mapping and analysis. These using the city of Denver’s open planning documents, was able
ipal and asset-level greenhouse gas inventories and climate risk examples are part of a growing trend, with numerous startups to answer a wide variety of questions regarding various local
modeling; IMPLAN Cloud and REMI SEI for site suitability striving to make such technologies more accessible. As these regulations. Despite these innovations, concerns regarding the
analysis and economic impact modeling; QGIS QGIS, Felt
Felt, Carto
Carto, and tools become more affordable, they herald a new standard in trustworthiness and quality of engagement through AI remain.
Esri’s Enterprise solutions via ArcGIS Online and ArcGIS Pro creating “as-builts”—detailed representations of existing condi- These technologies will need time to demonstrate their effec-
for cartography and geospatial analysis; and even Google Earth tions. Combined with model-based design technologies, they tiveness and earn the confidence of the public.
Engine and Meshroom for reality capture drone footage and have the potential to significantly expedite and reduce the costs
aerial imagery processing. These tools are continuously being associated with urban and architectural design. The PlanTech section was produced in collaboration with
refined and enhanced—most recently by way of integration with our PlanTech Advisory Community and the APA Technology
popular or proprietary large language models (LLMs), ideally Remote tools for civic engagement Division. Special thanks go to Lian Plaas, AICP, Urban
Division
creating efficiencies by allowing users to translate descriptions Public expectations regarding engagement Land Institute; David Wasserman, AICP, Alta Planning
directly into desired output. In late 2023, OpenAI launched a with local government have significantly risen + Design; Tom Sanchez, AICP, Texas A&M University;
no-code platform enabling the creation of custom ChatGPT ver- over the past decade. Planning departments Norman Wright, AICP, Parameter; Andrew Buck, AICP, VHB;
sions for specific purposes, without any need for coding. are now tasked with fulfilling these demands Carla Mays, #SmartCohort; and Keith Cooke, Esri.
to ensure that all community members who
Reality capture wish to participate have the opportunity to do so. Planners are
The advent of satellites, drones, and high- expected to forge a partnership with the public, moving beyond
speed internet has greatly simplified the the traditional method of in-person meetings, which can
process of converting built and natural inadvertently silence many voices.
environments into 3D models. This advance- The push for digital participation has accelerated due to
ment, known as reality capture technology,
technology is COVID-19, leading to the adoption of various advanced and
transforming the Architectural, Engineering, and Construction specialized tools beyond standard video conferencing plat-
(AEC) sector by accelerating and streamlining the processes of forms like Zoom. One such tool is Map Social,
Social which allows
analysis, design, and construction. Furthermore, these planners to gather community input on spatial matters through

Conclusion
Every year when we start working on the next This is a signal itself, portraying the fast pace of change in our plans for the future of our communities is more import-
Trend Report (which is usually the day after the around us. It is also a signal that planners are tackling ever ant than ever before.
current report was published), we wonder if we more change and related challenges in their communities, and APA and the Lincoln Institute will continue sharing
that it is becoming ever more complex to identify the opportu- emerging trends and potential future trends that we see as rele-
will be able to find enough trends and signals,
nities among these changes. This is why we publish this report vant to the future of the planning profession. And we will con-
sufficient new content that will fill up an entire
annually. tinue providing you with the right guidance, knowledge, and
report. And every year when we get to the point
And while most trends and signals from previous reports successful practices so you can tackle the challenges and seize
of prioritizing which of the newly identified trends are still relevant, we use these annual Trend Reports to high- potential opportunities of today and tomorrow.
and signals will go into the Trend Report, we light what’s new, what’s specifically relevant in the coming year,
struggle because of the flood of new topics. and what are some emerging topics planners should be learn-
ing about.
It’s a process of learning with the future that will help plan-
ners prepare for the many uncertainties on the horizon.
While the main themes and bigger-picture topics remain
similar each year (e.g., climate change, artificial intelligence,
housing, health, transportation, etc.), within all of them we can
see myriad shifts that are outside of our control yet directly or
indirectly impact the work we as planners do. A local economy
might be suffering from global economic warfare. Technolog-
ical advances introduce new transportation systems into our
communities and affect how people move around. Lack of
political will and the inability to make decisions in a polarized
world can result in a worsening climate.
Today, knowing about these external drivers of change,
understanding how they may impact our communities and the
work we do, and preparing for and proactively including them

2024 Trend Report for Planners

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2024

Table of Trends and Signals for 2024

2 | 2024 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy | planning.org/foresight

3 | 2024 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy | planning.org/foresight

About This Report

4 | 2024 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy | planning.org/foresight

5 | 2024 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy | planning.org/foresight

About the American Planning About the Lincoln Institute

6 | 2024 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy | planning.org/foresight

Contributors APA’s Trend Scouting Foresight Community

7 | 2024 Trend Report | APA | Lincoln Institute of Land Policy | planning.org/foresight

Methodology Five Trend Categories

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APA’s Trend Universe

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about AI’s profound role and poten- Generative AI is everywhere

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technology, building on the previ- excessively restricting technological implications of AI computations

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Looming Climate Impacts and Adaptation Challenges

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The Futures of the (Home) Office

Fully remote work is the new normal.

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Climate Mitigation: Skilled Workers, Tech, and Policies

First ever Local Climate were raised: the lack of collabora-

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Housing Challenges and Solutions

between communities and devel- “production

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prominence. The production of the rate. In 2023, Portland

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Deep Dive: The Silent Health Crisis

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Compounding these challenges that silent crises with cumulative

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Planners are instrumental in creat- deepening social isolation warrants

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Political Polarization and Societal Division

and rising instances of politically Antigovernment sentiment

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increasingly noting rises in hostil- INSIGHT FROM OUR TREND SCOUTS

Declining social cohesion

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Persisting Transportation Inequities

Inequitable transportation programs, stating safety concerns

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INSIGHT FROM OUR TREND SCOUTS

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The Value of Youth

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