CHAPTER VI [1,3,4,5,6,7]

URBAN
TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING
Prof. Ir. A. Caroline Sutandi, S.T., M.T., Ph.D., IPU

Civil Engineering Department

Parahyangan Catholic University
2023
INTRODUCTION [1,3,4,5,6,7]

The larges transportation planning

activities in years is urban transportation
planning.
The main focus are planning future road
and public transportation facilities.
The principles, methods, and models of
urban transportation planning have been
adapted and applied in a number of
planning problems.
THE CHALLENGE [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Regarding congestion in large cities and

interurban roads transportation planning
has to meet environmental standards,
achieving traffic reduction targets, and
all people have appropriate levels of
accessibility to jobs, services, and
facilities.
TSM Planning [4]

Transportation System Management

(TSM) is a process for planning and
operating a unitary system of urban
transportation.
The main objectives of TSM is to
maximize urban mobility within a given
existing system through the
development of specific applicable
actions in the following four categories:
TSM Planning [4]

▪ actions to ensure efficient use in

existing road space.
▪ actions to reduce vehicle use in
congested areas
▪ actions to improve transit service
▪ actions to improve internal transit
management efficiency.
TSM Planning [4]

TSM is fundamentally different from long-range

planning.
TSM Long-range
Problem Clearly defined, observable Dependent on growth scenarios
and projected travel
Scale Usually local, subarea, or Usually corridor or regional
corridor
Objectives Problem-related Broad, policy-related
Options Few specific actions Several modal, network, and
alignment alternatives
Analysis Procedures Usually analogy or simple Based on trip and network
operational relationships models
Response Time Quick response essential Not critical
Product Design for implementation Preferred alternative for further
study or detail design
TSM Planning [4]

Overall TSM Planning Cycle

(normative) and typical goals,
objectives, performance measures, and
TSM Classification are presented in
Figure and Tables below.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Transportation Demand Analysis (TDA)

plays several important roles in
transportation engineering and planning.

Furthermore, the role of models in the

planning process is important to analyse
and forecast the future conditions.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

The role of models in the planning process

Models are simplified representation of

realty which can be used to explore the
condisions of particular policies or
strategies.
The reasons for choosing a model are
quickly accurate outcome, lower cost /risk,
than through implementation / monitoring.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Models can be used in a variety of ways:

▪ to predict future conditions in the
absence of policy intervention;
▪ to predict future conditions based on
implemented specified policiy / design;
▪ to test a performance of a given policy;
▪ to produce very short term forecast.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Properties of a good model

A number of properties of a good model:

• accuracy and precision;
• economy in data and computing
resources;
• ability to produce relevant processes
and iterations;
• appropriate geographical spread.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Forecasting, Calibration, Validation

Forecasting.
The use of data on existing traffic
systems as one of the inputs to a
procedure for estimating what the
traffic would be like under different
conditions, either now or in the future.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Calibration.
The use of traffic data to estimate
the values for one or more parameters
in a theoretical or simulation model.
Validation.
The verification of a theoretical or
simulation model against information
independent of that used to calibrate
the model.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Fundamental concepts

Utility Maximisation

Utility maximisation is the process of

choosing the best option among cost,
time, comfort, other attributes as
constrains.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

𝐶𝑖𝑗𝑘 = 𝐼𝑉𝑇𝑖𝑗𝑘 𝑋1 + 𝑂𝑉𝑇𝑖𝑗𝑘 𝑋2 + 𝑂𝑃𝐶𝑖𝑗𝑘

𝐶𝑖𝑗𝑘 = cost travelling from origin 𝑖 to destination 𝑗 by mode 𝑘

𝐼𝑉𝑇𝑖𝑗𝑘 = in vehicle time required to travel from 𝑖 to 𝑗 by mode 𝑘

𝑂𝑉𝑇𝑖𝑗𝑘 = out of vehicle time involved to travel from 𝑖 to 𝑗 by mode 𝑘

(Walking, waiting)

𝑂𝑃𝐶𝑖𝑗𝑘 = out − of − pocket cost to travel from 𝑖 to 𝑗 by mode 𝑘

(fares, petrol, parking charge)
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Equilibrium

Most models are develop based on a series of

equilibrium, for example:
➢ if a route had an increase in flow and then
delay, drivers will switch to other route;
➢ high queue length at bus stop can cause
bus company to decrease headway.

This make a new equilibrium.

TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Aggregation

Most analysis are in practice based on

aggregate rather than individual vehicle,
for example: total flow, average speed,
average travel time.
Disaggregation maybe important in
terms of specific zone (corridor) or time
(peak hours).
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Limiting the model domain

Models influenced by changes of driver or

people respond, for example:
▪ choice of departure time;
▪ choice of service;
▪ choice of mode;
▪ choice of destination;
▪ choice of trip frequency;
▪ car purchase decision;
▪ residential location.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Selecting a model

The range of models available

Range of model’s sophistication are from

the simple (standard) up to mathematical
functions and simulation computer
programs that usually complex (need
detail data) and commercial.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Specifying the requirements

Requirements and data available are

needed when selecting a model for a
particular purposes.

Requirements encompass:
• input variable required, level of detail;
• output variable required, level of detail,
form format.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

The constrain of time and money

The constrain of time and money have to

be considered regarding the requirements
to determine:
▪ Buying a new software and hardware;
▪ Collecting additional data;
▪ Working more surveyors.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Change the model

Model can be changed regarding the

following items:
• to maximise data available;
• to change from short term to long term
forecast;
• to increase accuracy of the model;
• to anticipate the change of real world.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Classes of models for transport analysis

Commonly used models for transport

analysis from simple models up to
complex simulation models will be
presented.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Simple models

The general equation of a simple model:

y = f(x)

An empirical observed relationship

between one variable x and another
predected variable y.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Time series models

Many aspects of transport demand vary

over time.
By plotting the data over time, it become
possible to deduce an underlying trend.
A prediction of future levels can be made
by extrapolating this trend into the future.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Linear Non-Linear
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Trend apparent
Quantity

No trend apparent

Time
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Averaging models

A simple arithmetic to calculate an

average is one way of making short-term
forecasts when there is no apparent
trend in the data.

The average forecast simply uses the

mean value of all previous observation.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Et = Ot-1 +  (Et-1 – Ot-1)

Et = expected value in year t
Ot-1 = observed value in year (t-1)
= coefficient usually 0.3 – 0.5

The problem of a moving average

forecast for a long time period is if data
from the previous of time series were
influenced by different factors from those
operating now.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Regression analysis

Simple regression analysis can be used

to derive the gradient of a trend line.
In transport modelling, this mathematical
function (linear or curve) fits the
observed data.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

y = a + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 ... + bnxn

y = dependent variable whose value is to be predicted

x1 - xn = independent variable whose value use to determine y
a, b1-bn= calibrated coefficients in the mathematical model
which best explain y in terms of the x variables
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Matrix estimation models

The trip matrix or the origin – destination

matrix indicate the number of trips
between each origin – destination pair.

The row and column totals indicate the

total number of origins and destinations
respectively in each zone.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Uniform growth factor: Tijtˆ = Tijt x Gttˆ

Origin constrain growth factor: Tijtˆ = Tijt x Gittˆ

Destination constrain growth factor:

Tijtˆ = Tijt x Gjttˆ

Tijtˆ = trips from zone i to zone j in forecast yearˆt

Tijt = trips from zone i to zone j in observed year t
Gttˆ = expected growth in trips numbers between year t and ˆt
Gittˆ = expected increase in trips originating in zone i
Gjttˆ = expected increase in trips destined to zone j
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Elasticity models

A model can be specify with the

sensitivity of the forecast to key policy
variables.

The model is known as an elasticity

model and the general form is:
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Yt = Yt-1 {1 + E(Xt – Xt-1) / Xt-1}

Yt = quantity demanded in year t

Xt = value of a supply variable (price, journey time)
in year t
E = elasticity coefficient for Y with respected to X
elasticity coefficient should be calibrated on past
data containing evidence of the marginal effect
on Y of a marginal change in X.
E = (Δ Y / Y) / (ΔX / X)
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Demand allocation models

Trips are made as a result of alternative

choices made by travellers:

▪ Modes of travel;
▪ time of travel;
▪ routes.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

D0 = s Ns Pso

D0 = predicted total allocation of demand to option o

Ns = expected size of subgroup s
(car ownership, income, journey purpose)
Pso = proportion of subgroup s expected to selec
option o
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Simulation models

Simulation models that represent

dynamic evolution of some aspect of the
transport system through an explicit
representation of the behaviour of actors,
are differ from mathematical models.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Simulation models can represent

performance of small areas
(intersections, corridors, roundabouts) or
large areas (towns, cities, provinces).

Detail level of input data is needed to

produce a very accurate output of the
model. Microsimulation and
macrosimulation are parts of simulation
models.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Transport modelling in practice

Although package models are on a

commercial basis, the models are prefer
to use rather than to develop new
models, especially for public sector
planning.
 Land use data Trip generation Cost of travel

Trip ends

Trip distribution

Trip matrix
Feedback
Modal (optional)
characteristics Mode split

Trip matrix
By mode

Network
characteristics Assignment

Link flows

Four-stage (sequential) travel demand model [7]

TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Trip generation models

The models are intended to predict the

total number of trips produced (by
residential development) or attracted (by
economic or other activities) by a zone.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Pi = f(z1, z2, z3, ...)

Ai = f(z1’, z2’, z3’, ...)

Pi = trip productions from zone i

Ai = trip attractions from zone i
zi = predictive factors for productions
z1’ = predictive factors for attractions
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

The most common form of trip

generation model is linear function:

Pi = j zij
i

y = 0 + 1x1 + 2x2 + 3x3 ... + nxn

 are coefficient to be tedermined

through regression analysis. Statistical
software package can be used.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Cross classification table giving trip rates in trips per houshold per day[1]
Persons per Vehicle available per houshold
houshold 0 1 2 or more
1 1.02 1.09 2.10
2 2.12 3.25 3.70
3 2.15 3.75 3.90
4 or more 3.96 5.00 6.54

Fraction of population of hypothetical zone in various houshold size

and vehicle-availability categories[1]

Persons per Vehicle available per houshold

houshold 0 1 2 or more
1 0.05 0.21 0.02
2 0.03 0.16 0.13
3 0.02 0.10 0.13
4 or more 0.01 0.08 0.06
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

The average number of trips per

houshold may be estimated by
multiplying the trip generation rate for
each category by the fraction of the
population in the category.

Pi =  rjk pjk
i j

Pi = number of trips (per day)

rjk = trip rate for cross classification table cell jk
pjk= fraction of population for cross classification table cell jk
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Pi =  rjk pjk
i j

P = 0.05(1.02) + 0.21(1.90) + 0.02(2.10) +

0.03(2.12) + 0.16(3.25) + 0.13(3.70) +
0.02(2.15) + 0.10(3.75) + 0.13(3.90) +
0.01(3.96) + 0.08(5.00) + 0.06(6.54)
= 3.31 trips per day
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Trip distribution models

The models are intended to predict zone

to zone trip interchanges. The final
product is a projected origin-destination
matrix from zone i to zone j where tij
refers to the number of trips with origin in
zone i and destination in zone j.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Trip interchange matrix [1]

Origin Destination Zone

Zone
1 2 3 .
1 T11 T12 T13 ...
2 T21 T22 T23 ..
3 T31 T32 T33 ....
.

.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

There are several types of trip

distribution models:

▪ Fratar growth factor model

▪ Intervening opportunities model
▪ Competing opportunities model
▪ Gravity model
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

The gravity model

Pi (Aj Fij) Aj (Pi Fij)

Tij = or Tij =
 (Aj Fij)  (PiFij)
j i

where

Tij = trips from zone 1 to zone j

Aj= trips
Pi= trips
Fij= impedance of travel from zone i to zone j
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

The impedance of travel from zone 1 to

zone j is usually some function of travel
time or generalized cost of travel
between the two zones.
Fij = Cij-
Cij = the general cost function for travel from
zone i to zone j (travel time or money)
 = the model parameter to be determine by
calibration (2.0)
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Example:

Using a gravity model with an

impedance term of the form C-,
estimate the number of trips from zone
1 to other zones, with  = 1.90
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Zone Travel time to Productions Attractions

zone1, min

1 20,000 10,000
2 10 15,000 30,000
3 20 30,000 18,000
4 15 25,000 10,000
5 30 18,000 40,000

In order to find trips from zone 1 to all other

zones, distribute production from zone 1, use:
P1 (Aj / Cij-)
T1j =
j (Aj / Cij-)
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Zon Aj Cij, Aj /Cij Aj /Cij Tij

e min Aj /Cij
j

1 10,000
2 30,000 10 30,000/101.90=337.68 337.68/559.12=0.675 20,000x0.675=13,500
3 18,000 20 60.72 0.109 2,180
4 10,000 15 58.27 0.104 2,080
5 40,000 30 62.45 1.112 2,240
 559.12 1.000 20,000
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Mode choice models

Mode choice (modal split) models are always

disaggregate models based on utility function:
um = m +  j zmj + 
where
um = utility of mode m
m = mode specific parameter j
zmj = set of travel characteristics of mode m (time or cost)
j = parameters of the model, to be determined by calibration
 = stochastic term with zero mean
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

The most common assumption is that  takes

on a Weibull distribution, which results in the
multinomial logit demand model:
eUm
Pm =
 eUm’
m’

where
Pm = probability that mode m is chosen
e = base of natural logarithms
m’ = index over all modes included in the choice set
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

If only 2 modes are involved, the

multinomial logit demand model simplified
to the binary logit model:

1
P1=
1 + e(u2 – u1)
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Example : [1]

A market segment consist of 500

individuals. A multinomial logit mode
choice model is calibrated for this market
segment, resulting in the following utility
function:
um = m – 0.3C – 0.02T
C = cost, T is travel time, and m are
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Mode m
Bus transit 0.00
Rail transit 0.40
Auto 2.00

For a particular origin-destination pair:

Travel time (min) Cost ($)
30 1.00
20 1.50
15 2.50

Predict the number of trips by each

mode from this market segment.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Determine utility function:

uB = 0.00 – 0.3(1.00) – 0.02(30) = -0.90
uR = 0.40 – 0.3(1.50) – 0.02(20) = -0.45
uA = 2.00 – 0.3(2.50) – 0.02(15) = 0.95
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Determine probability of each mode:

e-0.90 0.406
PB= = = 0.112
e-0.90 + e-0.45 + e0.95 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586

e-0.45 0.638
PR= = = 0.176
e-0.90 + e-0.45 + e0.95 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586

e0.95 2.586
PA= = = 0.712
e-0.90 + e-0.45 + e0.95 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Determine number of trips by each mode:

TB = 0.112 x 500 = 56
TR = 0.176 x 500 = 88
TA = 0.712 x 500 = 356

Check: 56 +88 +356 = 500

TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Trip assignment models

Trip assignment ( Route Choice) models

are intended to predict the number of
traveler using various routes on the links
in transportation networks.
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Transportation network consisting of 2 parallel links [1]

Route 1

Route 2
TDA [1,3,4,5,6,7]

Equilibrium solution to two-link network problem [1]

Route 1 Route 2 Total

Travel time

t
Demand

V1 V2 VT
Traffic volume