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Module 1 - Market Risk Limit Calibration
Module 1 - Market Risk Limit Calibration
1
What is the Risk?
Risk is the the possibility of something bad
happening at some time in the future; a situation
that could be dangerous or have a bad result.
Source: Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary
Market risk
classifications
3
PERATURAN OTORITAS JASA KEUANGAN NOMOR 18 /POJK.03/2016
TENTANG PENERAPAN MANAJEMEN RISIKO BAGI BANK UMUM
SURAT EDARAN OTORITAS JASA KEUANGAN NOMOR 38
/SEOJK.03/2016 TENTANG PEDOMAN PENGGUNAAN METODE
STANDAR DALAM PERHITUNGAN KEWAJIBAN PENYEDIAAN MODAL
MINIMUM BANK UMUM DENGAN MEMPERHITUNGKAN RISIKO PASAR
4
FRTB – The new market risk paradigm
The Basel Committee of Banking Supervision (BCBS) published the Fundamental Review
of Trading Book (FRTB) final rule on January 14, 2016 after five years of discussion and
finalized in Feb 2019. However implementation will be differ to 2023 due to pandemic
Covid 19.
The liquidity horizons in FRTB range from 10 to 120 days depending on the complexity of
the asset type.
5
Managing the Liquidity & Daily Cashflow.
Managing Foreign Exchange and Interest Rate Risk
(i.e Hedging)
To achieve the target profit from FX, MM and
Derivatives or Structure Products (if any)
To achieve the Fee Based Income target trough
sales and brokerage business.
Develop upcoming new products to fulfill the
customer needs.
6
Online
Limit
check
System set up
Middle Office
Post Mandate check Holding Period Limit Off Market Rate
deal
Stop Loss limit
PV01 Limit
Round-trip
Traded Benchmark Rates
Area Portfolio Review & Check
Moneyness (Pin Risk)
Limit NOP limit Back to Back check (Dormant portfolio folder check)
VaR limit Late Deal Monitoring (off hour)
check CS01 limit
Internal Transfer Check
Price Discovery
Point Parking
Stale Rate check
Market Risk
7
To be responsible for ensuring that market risk is
appropriately managed, including minimising the Bank’s
exposure to unforeseen losses arising from such risks.
(Market Risk Oversight)
To develop the Market Risk policies
To develop clear segregation between Trading & Banking
Book
To identify and classify of Market Risk factor
To do assessments of Treasury Trading limit proposal
To provide risk opinion for new product assessment
To develop Market Risk control infrastructure and
processes
To adopt specific risk control measures
Perform independent MTM – daily basis
Perform The Risk Reporting & Monitoring
Provide periodic Testing of Risk Control Measures
8
The Independent unit which monitoring Treasury activities at
deal level.
The Typical Role of Middle Office are as follows:
Ensuring that every deals are transacted in accordance with dealing
mandate (Ccy, Product, Tenor, B2B etc.)
Monitoring Holding Period of bond portfolio
Back to Back Check
Off Market Rate Transaction Monitoring
Conduct Traded Benchmark Rates Monitoring
Area Portfolio Review & Check (Dormant portfolio folder check)
Conduct Late Deal Monitoring
Point Parking
Internal Transfer Check
Moneyness Monitoring
Round Trip
Stale Rate check
Price Discovery
9
Front Office Back Office
The front office is responsible The back office administers and
for: supports the front office; its main
Working with the business functions are to:
to identify exposures; Confirm treasury transactions in
Providing market a timely manner;
information and pricing
advice to the organization; Settle deals when due;
10
Profit & Loss
Deal Detail related
Reconciliation &
Finance check
Valuation
Middle Risk
Office Mgt
11
• Build scalable • Play active role in
framework to support Corporate
business and revenue Governance
growth
• Ensure survivability
• Ensure sustainability during crises
of profits
12
Purpose:
Layout the Risk Organisation and define
trading and banking book activities as
adopted by the bank.
Define the market risk limits application
process.
A structured framework for the
management of the market risk that the
bank undertakes vis-a-vis a set of
structured limits, delegated authorities
and escalation processes.
13
Market Risk
14
Trading Book (TB) Banking Book (BB)
Short Term Horizon Long Term /
Capital Gain Investment
Enable to hedge Liquidity Buffer
15
To optimise risk-return earnings
potential, while ensuring that losses in
adverse market circumstances remain
within acceptable levels. Hence, all
risk-taking activities must yield a
return that commensurate with the
risk taken.
16
VaR
NOP
PV01
Risk
Measures
Stop Loss /
Management
Action Trigger
Notional
Option
Greeks
PV01 – Present Value of 1bps move in yield
CS01 - Present Value of 1bps move in credit spread 17
Interest rate
Risk
FX Risk
Volatility Risk
Risk
Types
Commodity
risk
Basis
Equity Risk
Risk
18
Board of
Commissioners
BOD / ALCO
Limit Escalation
Limit Delegation
19
Trading, hedging and underwriting limits
annually as part of their business
management process. Limit application and
approval exercises are conducted to
coincide with the Bank’s annual budget
exercise. These applications are prepared by
the respective business units and submitted
to the Risk Director and ALCO for approval
through MRD.
20
The Contents are:
Business Plan
Limit Justification
Risk Mitigation
Historical Utilization
Capital Requirements*
21
purpose of the requested limits,
the target markets,
the expected income,
the expected capital requirements.
must identify the currencies and specific
markets that the business units intend to
be exposed to.
The plan should qualify how the limits
would be utilized, for example, trading or
hedging.
22
The business unit must justify its limit
application. Business units justify the
requests for limits based on their business
plans for the financial year. Supporting
factors could include target market, and
expected business volume. Another useful
basis for justifying limit requests is data on
historical limit utilization.
While certain markets may offer potentially
high returns, business units must be able to
defend limit requests for these markets
striking a balance between risk and
rewards.
23
Step 1 Step 2
Step 3
BU Proposed the Risk management
Annual limit (with Division Head
notification by should Review the Proposal goes to
Treasury Proposal and gives ALCO for Approval
Directors) to Risk recommendation to
Management Risk Management
Division Directors
24
Treasury
25
26
27
Interest Rate Risk
Equity Risk
FX Risk
Commodity Risk
Credit Spread Risk
Option Risk
28
Credit spreads are generally measured and
quoted as the yield difference between a
government bond and a corporate bond
properly adjusted for coupon and maturity.
The credit spread risk measures the impact
of changes in the credit spread of the
issuer/borrower on the institution that is
holding the paper. Such risk is embedded in
corporate bonds that are traded by Fixed
Income Trading Desk.
29
Notional Limit VaR Limit
PV01 Limit Duration Limit
NOP Limit CS01 Limit
Cut loss/Stop loss Greeks Limit
30
SOFT AND HARD LIMIT : First, Second and Third Line of Defense
NOTIONAL
PV01
CS01
Management STOP LOSS
DURATION Action MTD, YTD
Triggers
GREEKS
VAR
31
Net Open Position Limit
PV01 or Duration Limit
Stop Loss
Management Action Trigger Limit
32
Limit for FX Risk
NOP is calculated as:
FCY Asset (On & Off) - FCY Liab. (On & Off)
33
These limits control PV01, which is a
sensitivity measure for interest rate risk.
PV01 measures the change in value of a given
position given a 1BP or 0.01% rise in interest
rates.
PV01 limits are by each currency exposure,
and further broken into tenor buckets.
34
Price and yield are inversely related
c1 c2 cn
p( y) 2
n
y y y
1 1 1
2 2 2
$175.00
$150.00
$125.00
Bond price ($)
$100.00
$75.00
$50.00
$25.00
$0.00
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%
Yield to maturity (% per year)
35
Duration is a weighted average of the time
until the expected cash flows from a
security will be received, relative to the
security’s price
k n
CFt (t) CFt (t)
◦ Macaulay’s Duration
(1 + r) t t =1 (1 + r)
t
D = t =k1
CFt Price of the Security
t =1 (1 + r)
t
37
Modified duration is a modified version of the Macaulay
model that accounts for changing interest rates.
Because they affect yield, fluctuating interest rates will
affect duration, so this modified formula shows how
much the duration changes for each percentage change
in yield.
38
39
40
Definition: (modified) duration is the proportional decline in price
associated with a unit increase n yield
slope of price - yield relation
D
price
dp / dy
p
Formula with semiannual compounding and complete first period:
n
dp / dy 1 j
D
p
w
1 y / 2 j 1 2 j
cj
where w j j
p1 y / 2
Usage
p p D y
Remarks
◦ Weight wj is fraction of value due to the jth payment
◦ Sum is weighted average life of payments
41
Stop Loss Limits are maximum allowable loss
to avoid accumulation of excessive trading
losses.
It defines risk appetite by defining the
maximum aggregated loss that management is
willing to take.
The loss limits can be calculated on daily,
monthly and annual basis.
This limit begins at a bankwide aggregate
trading stop loss limits and this is delegated
down to divisions and right to dealer level.
42
MAT are management action triggers (usually
around 70% or 75% of the stop loss limits).
Applicable on a MTD and YTD basis.
Once triggered, The process will require
reporting to delegators and director risk and an
action plan by the trader/division head (if
necessary).
It acts as an alert to require the BU to reassess
their position and strategy going forward.
43
Delta: is the option Greek that measures the estimated change in
option premium/price for a change in the price of the underlying.
45
Developed in early 1990’s by J.P. Morgan by Chairman Dennis
Weatherstone.
In 1994 J P Morgan provided all #’s used in their calculations on a web site.
Widely used today. Some impetus for VaR is fact that regulators require
banks to calculate VaR and use it in determining required bank capital.
In recent market moves of late 1998, some VaR did not work. Consultants
are now looking at possibility of developing VaR measures that look at more
than a single risk (market price risk).
46
“an attempt to provide a single number for senior
management summarizing the total risk in a
portfolio of assets”
– Hull, OF&OD
47
Market Risk-VaR
Calculation Methods
Analytical method
Using historical data, calculates stdev of percentage
price changes of the portfolio and calculates the
related VAR assuming normal distribution
Historical Simulation
Using historical data, calculates daily return & VaR derived by
percentile method, mostly used by international banks
48
Streamlining trading organizations and
improving how capital is managed are areas
of importance for many businesses
VAR is more advance compare to PV01 & NOP
49
Summary measurement
Forward looking in order to expect future loss
under certain confidence level
Dependable on Time Horizon Parameter
Dependable on probability level chosen
Source: P. Jorion
50
Dynamic, captures both changing market
circumstances and the changing portfolio
composition of each unit
A Clear comprehensive view of risk in
homogeneous units
Could also directly impact to Capital Charge
Calculation (if using internal model)
51
52
Assuming Market data are Normally distributed
Pros:
1. able to show the correlation impact
2. Good basic concept in explaining VaR
Cons:
1. Does not handle cases in which continuos returns from a
“strategy” (or asset class) are not normally distributed (options
and option like strategies)
2. Complex on calculation portfolio VaR
3. Sometimes tail risk go high
53
54
55
Standard Deviation (σ) The Square
Root of the average of the squared
distances of the observation from the
mean. Standard Deviation
17.5
17
16.5
16
15.5
15
Data
14.5 Linear
(Data)
14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
56
Correlation Analysis is the statistical tools we
can use to describe the degree to which one
variable is linearly related to another
r2 = 1-(∑(Y-Y’)2/∑(Y-Y”)2)
Y’ = Y estimate
Y” = Y average
57
MATRIX CORRELATION
Normsinv 2.326347874
Holding Period 1.0000
Backtesting
Confidence Interval n p z
99% 731 1% 2.326347874
Individual VaR
USD EURO JPY
Current VaR (30 Days Volatility) 0.72% 1.14% 1.13%
1/12/2003
Open Position (Base Currency) 2,000,000 1,000,000 400,000
Exchange Rate (Againts IDR) 8,918.00 9,431.68 74.74
Open Position (IDR) 17,836,000,000 9,431,676,800 29,896,078
Capital Charge (IDR) 128,133,673 107,568,989 336,385
Agregate VaR
Position (IDR) 54,861,402,109.99
individual VaR -Sum (IDR) 420,800,427.08 0.77% Againts the Position
Agregate VaR (IDR) 413,633,760.98 0.75% Againts the Position
Bank's Capital (IDR) 1,200,000,000,000.00 4.57% % Position (IDR) Againts The Bank's Capital
Capital Charge (IDR) 20,681,688,049.08 1.72% % Capital Charge Againts Banking Capital
Multiplier 4
59
Using actual market returns for the period of
potential loss
Pros:
1. Straight forward
2. Simple to calculate
Cons:
1. Requires reliable historical data of returns
2. there is still possibility of future distribution of
returns will be different than past distribution
60
Prepare 250 or 300 daily return data
To aggregate individual daily return on Day t
Short series of daily returns (Maximum to Minimum)
Calculates percentile using confidence interval
VaR level is at day “X” …. Based on (1-CL) *number of historical past
returns days
61
62
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
0 0.083 0.167 0.25 0.333 0.417 0.5 0.583 0.667 0.75 0.833 0.917 1
63
Traditional limit VAR Limit
Not directly Can directly
comparable against comparable against
unit unit
Do not incorporate Incorporate leverage
leverage effect effect (for analytics
Do not contain VaR)
volatility simulation Already covered
May misrepresent the volatility simulation
risk of derivatives Able to represent the
portfolio aggregate risk of
portfolio
64
65
It is a formal statistical framework that consist of
verifying that actual losses are in line with
projected losses
This involves systematically comparing the history
of VaR forecasts with their associated portfolio
return
Model Validation, the general process of checking
weather model is adequate
Back testing is also central to Basle Committee’s
ground breaking decision to allow internal VaR
model for Capital requirement
66
(np – Z0.005(np(1-p)) < < (np + Z0.005(np(1-p))
n = Data sample
p = 1-
Z.005 = Z table; 2 tailed: = 1%
= Error Event
67
68
Does not account for fat tails
Does not capture default risk A fixed holding
period fails to account fully for liquidity risks Is not
a coherent measure of risk
Does not account for intra-day risks Is a static
measure of risk
May not capture illiquid risk factors such as basis
risks
69
Call Put
Buyer
Unlimited
Profit
St St
Seller
Unlimited
Loss
St St
Options are volatile and risky instruments.
The link between probability theory and
investment risk makes it possible to quantify
option investment risk in very precise ways.
Any change in the variables used in the
valuation model (interest rate, future price,
days to expiration, and volatility) will affect
the options' prices. These variables represent
risks to an option portfolio.
Delta: is the option Greek that measures the estimated change in option
premium/price for a change in the price of the underlying.
Vega : measures the estimated change in the option price for a change
in the volatility of the underlying.
Theta: measures the estimated change in the option price for a change
in the time to option expiry.
Rho: measures the estimated change in the option price for a change in
the risk free interest rates.
ATM
Probability for Option to be Exercised
Buy 1mm of 3m 1.1050 EUR-USD Call with Spot=1.1000
Premium=$16,267 Delta=42%
Spot hedge = -Delta * Notional = -42% * EUR1mm
Target Capital
VaR Charge
Profit for
market
risk
• Set up Appetite for: K(mtd); K(ytd); interest moved up to max Holding Period
• Calculates FX Volatility (Annualized)
• Input target profit, capital data
• Conduct simulation on PV01, NOP
• Running VaR for understanding historical usage
77
78
NOP Limit
PV01 Limit (in USD)
CS01 Limit (in USD)
YTD & MTD Stop Loss
MAT YTD & MTD Stop Loss
79
Capital Rp 2.000.000.000.000
Profit Target Rp 30.000.000.000
Volatility - 1 year 5%
YTD's Coefficient 6,00
YTD Stop Loss 15.000.000.000
MAT YTD STOP LOSS 11.250.000.000
Assumed:
IDR/USD 14500
Volatility - 1 year 725 pips
80
NOP Limit ?
81
Treasury Budget 20XX
Total IDR 120.000.000.000
82
Summary results
83
Limit Type Sub-Limit Current Limit Treasury's Proposal Market Risk's Remarks
recommendation
Based on Hypothetical P&L inline with
target profit.
NOP Limit (in USD Total 30 20,7 20
Mn) BI’s regulation requires Bank NOP (On
and off balance sheet) to be maximum
20% of capital, which is currently USD ------
-- Mio
PV01 (USD '000) > Fixed Income trading 30 48 48 If interest rate moved to 100bp, will only
hit x% of profit target
CS01 (USD '000) > Corporate Bond 30 14 14
PV01 Tenor
Month to Date 15,00 25 50 Calculation is based on formula:
(IDR Bio)
Stop Loss k-mtd * monthly profit
in IDR
FX Trading 50.000.000.000,00
Interest Rate Risk/Credit Spread Trading
> Fixed Income trading 50.000.000.000,00
> Corporate Bond 30.000.000.000,00
130.000.000.000,00
85
Assumptions
Risk Appetite for Stop Loss
- Risk Appetite - MTD 3 Months
The Yield Curve is assumed to move…...Bps pararelly shifted form the original yield curve 100 Bps
Every impact calculations should not reach more than …...% of budget profit 100%
All FX open position would be reflected in USD/IDR
Annual Volatility for USD/IDR is 5%
and the exchange rate is at level of 14500
86
NOP Limit
PV01 Limit (in USD)
CS01 Limit (in USD)
YTD & MTD Stop Loss
MAT YTD & MTD Stop Loss
87